In-hospital and long-term mortality for acute heart failure: analysis at the time of admission to the emergency department

Multimodal deep learning models utilizing chest X-ray and electronic health record data for predictive screening of acute heart failure in emergency department

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Ambiguity in diagnosing acute heart failure (AHF) leads to inappropriate treatment and potential side effects of rescue medications. To address this issue, this study aimed to use multimodality deep learning models combining chest X-ray (CXR) and electronic health record (EHR) data to screen patients with abnormal N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels in emergency departments.

METHODS

Using the open-source dataset MIMIC-IV and MIMICCXR, the study population consisted of 1,432 patients and 1,833 pairs of CXRs and EHRs. We processed the CXRs, extracted relevant features through lung-heart masks, and combined these with the vital signs at triage to predict corresponding NT-proBNP levels.

RESULTS

The proposed method achieved a 0.89 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve by fusing predictions from single-modality models of heart size ratio, radiomic features, CXR, and the region of interest in the CXR. The model can accurately predict dyspneic patients with abnormal NT-proBNP concentrations, allowing physicians to reduce the risks associated with inappropriate treatment.

CONCLUSION

The study provided new image features related to AHF and offered insights into future research directions. Overall, these models have great potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce risks in emergency departments.

Telehealth-aided outpatient management of acute heart failure in a specialist virtual ward compared with standard care

AIMS

The aim of this propensity score matched cohort study was to assess the outcomes of telehealth-guided outpatient management of acute heart failure (HF) in our virtual ward (HFVW) compared with hospitalized acute HF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study (May 2022-October 2023) assessed outcomes of telehealth-guided outpatient acute HF management using bolus intravenous furosemide in a HF-specialist VW. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed using logistic regression to adjust for potential differences in baseline patient characteristics between HFVW and standard care [Get With The Guidelines-HF score, clinical frailty score (CFS), Charlson co-morbidity index (CCI), NT-proBNP, and ejection fraction]. Clinical outcomes (re-hospitalizations and mortality) were compared at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months versus standard care-SC (acute HF patients managed without telehealth in 2021). Five hundred fifty-four HFVW ADHF patients (age 73.1 ± 10.9 years; 46% female) were compared with 404 ADHF patients (74.2 ± 11.8; P = 0.15 and 49% female) in the standard care-SC cohort. After propensity score matching for baseline patient characteristics, re-hospitalizations were significantly lower in the HFVW compared with SC (1 month-HFVW 8.6% vs. SC-21.5%, P < 0.001; 3 months-21% vs. 30%, P = 0.003; 6 months-28% vs 41%, P < 0.001 and 12 months-47% vs. 57%, P = 0.005) and mortality was also lower at 1 month (5% vs. 13.7%; P < 0.001), 3 months (9.5% vs. 15%; P = 0.001), 6 months (15% vs. 21%; P = 0.03), and 12 months (20% vs. 26%; P = 0.04). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with standard care, HFVW management was associated with lower odds of readmission (1-month odds ratio (OR) = 0.3 [95% Confidence Interval CI 0.2-0.5], P < 0.0001; 3 month OR = 0.15 [0.1-0.3], P < 0.0001; 6-month OR = 0.35 [0.2-0.6], P = 0.0002; 12-month OR = 0.25 [0.15-0.4], P ≤ 0.001 and mortality (1-month OR = 0.26 [0.14-0.48], P < 0.0001; 3-month OR = 0.11 [0.04-0.27], P < 0.0001; 6-month OR = 0.35, [0.2; 0.61], P = 0.0002; 12-month OR = 0.6 [0.48; 0.73], P = 0.03. Higher GWTG-HF score independently predicted increased odds of re-hospitalization (1-month OR = 1.2 [1.1-1.3], P < 0.001; 3-month OR = 1.5 [1.37; 1.64], P < 0.0001; 6-month OR = 1.3 [1.2-1.4], P < 0.0001; 12-month OR = 1.1 [1.05-1.2], P = 0.03) as well as mortality (1-month OR = 1.21 [1.1-1.3], P < 0.0001; 3-month OR = 1.3 [1.2-1.4], P < 0.0001; 6-month OR = 1.2 [1.1-1.3], P < 0.0001; 12-month OR = 1.3 [1.1-1.7], P = 0.02). Similarly higher CFS also independently predicted increased odds of re-hospitalizations (1-month OR = 1.9 [1.5-2.4], P < 0.0001; 3-month OR = 1.8 [1.3-2.4], P = 0.0003; 6-month OR = 1.4 [1.1-1.8], P = 0.015; 12-month OR 1.9 [1.2-3], P = 0.01]) and mortality (1-month OR = 2.1 [1.6-2.8], P < 0.0001; 3-month OR = 1.8 [1.2-2.6], P = 0.006; 6-month OR = 2.34 [1.51-5.6], P = 0.0001; 12-month OR = 2.6 [1.6-7], P = 0.02). Increased daily step count while on HFVW independently predicted reduced odds of re-hospitalizations (1-month OR = 0.85[0.7-0.9], P = 0.005), 3-month OR = 0.95 [0.93-0.98], P = 0.003 and 1-month mortality (OR = 0.85 [0.7-0.95], P = 0.01), whereas CCI predicted adverse 12-month outcomes (OR = 1.2 [1.1-1.4], P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Telehealth-guided specialist HFVW management for ADHF may offer a safe and efficacious alternative to hospitalization in suitable patients. Daily step count in HFVW can help predict risk of short-term adverse clinical outcomes.

2024 update in heart failure

In the last years, major progress has occurred in heart failure (HF) management. The 2023 ESC focused update of the 2021 HF guidelines introduced new key recommendations based on the results of the last years of science. First, two drugs, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and finerenone, a novel nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), are recommended for the prevention of HF in patients with diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD). Second, SGLT2 inhibitors are now recommended for the treatment of HF across the entire left ventricular ejection fraction spectrum. The benefits of quadruple therapy in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well established. Its rapid and early up-titration along with a close follow-up with frequent clinical and laboratory re-assessment after an episode of acute HF (the so-called 'high-intensity care' strategy) was associated with better outcomes in the STRONG-HF trial. Patients experiencing an episode of worsening HF might require a fifth drug, vericiguat. In the STEP-HFpEF-DM and STEP-HFpEF trials, semaglutide 2.4 mg once weekly administered for 1 year decreased body weight and significantly improved quality of life and the 6 min walk distance in obese patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) with or without a history of diabetes. Further data on safety and efficacy, including also hard endpoints, are needed to support the addition of acetazolamide or hydrochlorothiazide to a standard diuretic regimen in patients hospitalized due to acute HF. In the meantime, PUSH-AHF supported the use of natriuresis-guided diuretic therapy. Further options and most recent evidence for the treatment of HF, including specific drugs for cardiomyopathies (i.e., mavacamten in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and tafamidis in transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis), device therapies, cardiac contractility modulation and percutaneous treatment of valvulopathies, with the recent finding from the TRILUMINATE Pivotal trial, are also reviewed in this article.

Canadian Cardiovascular Society 2023 Guidelines on the Fitness to Drive

Cardiovascular conditions are among the most frequent causes of impairment to drive, because they might induce unpredictable mental state alterations via diverse mechanisms like myocardial ischemia, cardiac arrhythmias, and vascular dysfunction. Accordingly, health professionals are often asked to assess patients' fitness to drive (FTD). The Canadian Cardiovascular Society previously published FTD guidelines in 2003-2004; herein, we present updated FTD guidelines. Because there are no randomized trials on FTD, observational studies were used to estimate the risk of driving impairment in each situation, and recommendations made on the basis of Canadian Cardiovascular Society Risk of Harm formula. More restrictive recommendations were made for commercial drivers, who spend longer average times behind the wheel, use larger vehicles, and might transport a larger number of passengers. We provide guidance for individuals with: (1) active coronary artery disease; (2) various forms of valvular heart disease; (3) heart failure, heart transplant, and left ventricular assist device situations; (4) arrhythmia syndromes; (5) implantable devices; (6) syncope history; and (7) congenital heart disease. We suggest appropriate waiting times after cardiac interventions or acute illnesses before driving resumption. When short-term driving cessation is recommended, recommendations are on the basis of expert consensus rather than the Risk of Harm formula because risk elevation is expected to be transient. These recommendations, although not a substitute for clinical judgement or governmental regulations, provide specialists, primary care providers, and allied health professionals with a comprehensive list of a wide range of cardiac conditions, with guidance provided on the basis of the level of risk of impairment, along with recommendations about ability to drive and the suggested duration of restrictions.

Clinical Review of Hypertensive Acute Heart Failure

Although acute heart failure (AHF) is a common disease associated with significant symptoms, morbidity and mortality, the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of patients with hypertensive acute heart failure (H-AHF) still remain a challenge in modern medicine. Despite great progress in diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, this disease is still accompanied by a high rate of both in-hospital (from 3.8% to 11%) and one-year (from 20% to 36%) mortality. Considering the high rate of rehospitalization (22% to 30% in the first three months), the treatment of this disease represents a major financial blow to the health system of each country. This disease is characterized by heterogeneity in precipitating factors, clinical presentation, therapeutic modalities and prognosis. Since heart decompensation usually occurs quickly (within a few hours) in patients with H-AHF, establishing a rapid diagnosis is of vital importance. In addition to establishing the diagnosis of heart failure itself, it is necessary to see the underlying cause that led to it, especially if it is de novo heart failure. Given that hypertension is a precipitating factor of AHF and in up to 11% of AHF patients, strict control of arterial blood pressure is necessary until target values are reached in order to prevent the occurrence of H-AHF, which is still accompanied by a high rate of both early and long-term mortality.

Heart failure and economic impact: an analysis in real clinical practice in Italy

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) affects 1% of subjects aged 45-55 and over 10% of subjects aged ≥ 80 and in Italy represents the third leading cause of hospitalization. Objective: To analyse the clinical and economic burden of HF in the Italian real clinical practice. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the administrative databases of healthcare institutions for 4.2 million health-assisted residents. Between January 2012 and March 2021, patients with a hospital discharge diagnosis for HF were included. Among healthcare utilization and costs, treatments, hospitalizations, and specialist services were evaluated. The HF group was compared with a population without HF (no-HF) similar for age, sex distribution, and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The same number of patients with (N = 74,085) and without HF (N = 74,085) was included. A profile of cardiovascular comorbidities emerged in the HF group, mainly hypertension (88.6%), cardiovascular disease (61.3%) and diabetes (32.1%). Hospitalizations from any cause were 635.6 vs 429.8/1,000 person-year in the HF vs no-HF group. At one-year follow-up, all-cause mortality was 24.9% in HF patients and 8.4% in no-HF. Resource utilization/patient was respectively 26.8 ± 15.9 vs 17.1 ± 12.5 for medications, 0.8 ± 1.2 vs 0.3 ± 0.8 for hospitalizations, and 9.4 ± 12.6 vs 6.5 ± 9.8 for specialist services. This resource utilization resulted in significantly higher total healthcare costs in the HF group vs no-HF group (€ 5,910 vs € 3,574, p < 0.001), mainly related to hospitalizations (€ 3,702 vs € 1,958). Conclusions: HF patients show a significantly higher clinical and economic burden than no-HF, with total healthcare costs being about 1.7 times the costs of the no-HF group. Keywords: Cardiovascular comorbidities, Healthcare costs, Heart failure, Hospitalizations

Prognostic Comparison of Octogenarian vs. Non-Octogenarian With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure - AURORA Study

BACKGROUND

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is the main cause of hospitalization and death of octogenarians, but no data on the 1-year post-discharge mortality rate. We evaluated the clinical status and predictors of 1-year mortality in octogenarians with ADHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the AURORA (Acute Heart Failure Registry in Osaka Rosai Hospital) study, we examined 1,246 hospitalized ADHF patients. We compared the in-hospital mortality rate and the proportion of heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) between octogenarians and non-octogenarians. After discharge we compared the 1-year mortality rate between these groups, and we also evaluated the predictors of death in both groups. The proportion of HFpEF among the in-hospital deaths of octogenarians was significantly higher than in non-octogenarians (46.2% vs. 15.0%, P=0.031). The 1-year mortality rate after discharge was significantly higher in the octogenarians than non-octogenarians (P=0.014). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that albumin ≤3.0 g/dL and antiplatelet agents were useful predictors of 1-year death after discharge of octogenarians whereas chronic kidney disease was a predictor in the non-octogenarians.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of HFpEF among in-hospital deaths of octogenarians with ADHF was high as compared with non-octogenarians. When octogenarians with ADHF have severe hypoalbuminemia and antiplatelet agents, early nutritional and medical interventions after discharge may be important to improve the 1-year prognosis.

Assessment of Troponin I Levels as a Predictor of Mortality in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is a highly prevalent diagnosis in the emergency department and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. As mortality remains high even in patients discharged from the emergency, it becomes mandatory to identify markers predictive of mortality in order to guide the disposition of such patients. No literature is available on the prognostic significance of Troponin I in ADHF patients in an emergency setting from an Indian standpoint.

OBJECTIVES

This study was aimed at identifying the ability of Troponin I levels at presentation to predict one-month mortality in patients with ADHF.

METHODS

The study was conducted in the emergency department of a tertiary healthcare center in north India. Serum cardiac Troponin I (cTnI) levels at presentation were assayed in 101 patients and a one-month follow-up was done.

RESULTS

cTnI levels were > 0.02 ng/mL in 51 patients (50.5%). ROC analysis showed an accuracy of 63% in predicting mortality (p < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed an OR of 2.58 and 2.74, respectively (p - 0.037 and 0.047, respectively), suggesting cTnI to be a significant predictor of mortality in ADHF. N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) (OR - 2.09; p - 0.229) and left ventricular ejection fraction (OR - 2.01; p - 0.157) were not found to be significant predictors of mortality on regression analysis.

CONCLUSION

cTnI levels at presentation are a significant predictor of short-term mortality in ADHF and can be used in an emergency setting to guide treatment, disposition, and follow-up plans of these patients.

Outcomes Associated with Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitor Use in Acute Heart Failure Hospitalizations Complicated by AKI

Key Points

In a multicenter retrospective cohort study of adults hospitalized with acute heart failure, exposure to sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor during AKI was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality. Exposure to sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor during acute heart failure–associated AKI was associated with no difference in time to renal recovery. The findings were reproducible in inverse probability-weighted analysis.

Background

Although sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) use during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalizations is associated with symptomatic improvement, reduction in rehospitalizations, and mortality, these medications are often withheld during AKI because of concerns about worsening GFR. We aimed to investigate the safety of SGLT2i exposure during AKI among patients hospitalized with AHF. We hypothesized that SGLT2i exposure would not worsen mortality but may prolong return of creatinine to baseline.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of adults hospitalized across five Yale New Haven Health System hospitals between January 2020 and May 2022 with AHF complicated by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes–defined AKI. Patients with stage 5 CKD and those with potential contraindications to SGLT2i were excluded. We tested the association of SGLT2i use with kidney function recovery at 14 days and death at 30 days using time-varying, multivariable Cox-regression analyses.

Results

Of 3305 individuals hospitalized with AHF and AKI, 356 received SGLT2i after AKI diagnosis either as initiation or continuation. The rate of renal recovery was not significantly different among those exposed and unexposed to SGLT2i after AKI (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.11; P = 0.46). SGLT2i exposure was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.23 to 0.87; P = 0.02). Sensitivity analyses using an inverse probability-weighted time-varying Cox regression analysis and using alternate definitions of AHF with different NT-proBNP cutoffs yielded similar results. Rates of renal recovery were similar between the exposed and unexposed cohorts regardless of the proximity of SGLT2i exposure to AKI diagnosis.

Conclusion

In adults experiencing AHF-associated AKI, exposure to SGLT2i was associated with decreased mortality and no delay in renal recovery. Prospective studies are needed to elucidate the effect of SGLT2i exposure during AKI, particularly during heart failure hospitalizations.

Predictors and prognostic implications of hospital-acquired pneumonia in patients admitted for acute heart failure

Introduction

Data on predictors and prognosis of hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP) in patients admitted for acute heart failure (AHF) to intensive care units (ICU) are scarce. Better knowledge of these factors may inform management strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of HAP and its impact on management and outcomes in patients hospitalised for AHF in the ICU.

Methods

this was a retrospective single-centre observational study. Patient-level and outcome data were collected from an anonymized registry-based dataset. Primary outcome was in-hospital all-cause mortality and secondary outcomes included length of stay (LOS), requirement for inotropic/ventilatory support, and prescription patterns of heart failure (HF) drug classes at discharge.

Results

Of 638 patients with AHF (mean age, 71.6 ± 12.7 years, 61.9% male), HAP occurred in 137 (21.5%). In multivariable analysis, HAP was predicted by de novo AHF, higher NT proB-type natriuretic peptide levels, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, mitral regurgitation, and a history of stroke, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. Patients with HAP had a longer LOS, and a greater likelihood of requiring inotropes (adjusted odds ratio, OR, 2.31, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.16-2.81; p < 0.001) or ventilatory support (adjusted OR 2.11, 95%CI, 1.76-2.79, p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex and clinical covariates, all-cause in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with HAP (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95%CI, 1.71-2.84; p < 0.001). Patients recovering from HAP were less likely to receive HF medications at discharge.

Discussion

HAP is frequent in AHF patients in the ICU setting and more prevalent in individuals with de novo AHF, mitral regurgitation, higher burden of comorbidities, and more severe congestion. HAP confers a greater risk of complications and in-hospital mortality, and a lower likelihood of receiving evidence-based HF medications at discharge.

Performance of the heart failure risk scores in predicting 1 year mortality and short-term readmission of patients

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of these main scores in predicting prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 2008 patients who were admitted to the Fourth People's Hospital of Zigong, Sichuan, from December 2016 to June 2019 and diagnosed with HF were included in the study. We compared the prognostic predictive performance of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure programme (GWTG-HF), Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND) risk scores, the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) model, Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, and Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure (GISSI-HF) for the endpoints. The primary endpoint was 1 year all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was the incidence of 28 day readmission post-discharge. At 1 year follow-up, 44 (2.21%) patients with HF died. Discrimination analyses showed that all risk scores performed reasonably well in predicting 1 year mortality, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) fluctuating between 0.757 and 0.822. GISSI-HF showed the best discrimination with the AUC of 0.822 (0.768-0.876), followed by MAGGIC-HF, BCN-Bio-HF, ASCEND, SHFM, GWTG-HF, and ADHERE with AUCs of 0.819 (0.756-0.883), 0.812 (0.758-0.865), 0.802 (0.742-0.862), 0.787 (0.725-0.849), 0.762 (0.684-0.840), and 0.757 (0.681-0.833), respectively. All risk scores were similarly predictive of 28 day emergency readmissions, with AUCs fluctuating between 0.609 and 0.680. Overestimation of mortality occurred in all scores except the ASCEND. The risk scores remained with good prognostic discrimination in patients with biventricular HF and in the subgroup of patients taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently assessed risk scores have limited clinical utility, with fair accuracy and calibration in assessing patients' 1 year risk of death and poor accuracy in assessing patients' risk of readmission. There is a need to incorporate more patient-level information, use more advanced technologies, and develop models for different subgroups of patients to achieve more practical, innovative, and accurate risk assessment tools.

Cardiovascular outcomes by time-varying New York Heart Association class among patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a retrospective cohort study

AIMS

Assess the relationship between New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used the Optum Market Clarity database with linked claims and electronic health records. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with obstructive HCM and ≥1 NYHA class assessment after first HCM diagnosis were eligible (selection period: 2007-2021). Thirteen outcomes were assessed following the index date (first documented NYHA class assessment after first HCM diagnosis in the study period): all-cause mortality; first occurrences of all-cause hospitalization; CV-related hospitalization; primary ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA); myocardial infarction (MI); deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE); and major adverse CV event (MACE); as well as first incident events of atrial fibrillation or flutter; primary ischemic stroke or TIA; heart failure; acute MI; DVT/PE; and a composite endpoint of pacemaker and cardiac resynchronization therapy. Their associations with the index NYHA class were described using the Kaplan-Meier method (mortality) or cumulative incidence functions (other outcomes). Hazard ratios between NYHA class over time and outcomes were evaluated using time-varying Cox models, adjusting for age at first observed HCM diagnosis, sex, and race.

RESULTS

Among 4,631 eligible patients, the mean age was 59 years at the first observed HCM diagnosis (female, 47%; White, 77%). The risks of all outcomes increased with worse (higher) index NYHA class and worsening NYHA class over time. Deterioration in the NYHA class from the index date was associated with increased risks of outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

The study population may not be representative of all patients with obstructive HCM in the real world. Documented NYHA classes may not fully reflect the longitudinal variation of NYHA class for each patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening NYHA class was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality and CV outcomes in obstructive HCM.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure admitted to the ICU: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure is a serious condition. Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent arrhythmia in patients with acute heart failure. The occurrence of atrial fibrillation in heart failure patients worsens their prognosis and leads to a substantial increase in treatment costs. There is no tool that can effectively predict the onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU currently.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the MIMIC-IV database of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for acute heart failure and who were initially sinus rhythm. Data on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory findings, vital signs, and treatment were extracted. The cohort was divided into a training set and a validation set. Variables selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression in the training set were used to develop a model for predicting the occurrence of atrial fibrillation in acute heart failure in the ICU. A nomogram was drawn and an online calculator was developed. The discrimination and calibration of the model was evaluated. The performance of the model was tested using the validation set.

RESULTS

This study included 2342 patients with acute heart failure, 646 of whom developed atrial fibrillation during their ICU stay. Using LASSO and multiple logistic regression, we selected six significant variables: age, prothrombin time, heart rate, use of vasoactive drugs within 24 h, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Acute Physiology Score (APS) III. The C-index of the model was 0.700 (95% CI 0.672-0.727) and 0.682 (95% CI 0.639-0.725) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves also performed well in both sets.

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple and effective model for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU.

Updates in heart failure: sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and beyond – major changes are coming

Prevalence of heart failure is increasing worldwide mainly due to the ageing of the population and the improvement in diagnosis and treatment. In recent years, huge progress has been made in the management of heart failure patients. A new definition of chronic heart failure based on left ventricular ejection fraction and its possible trajectories has been reported. New drug classes have been introduced for the treatment of chronic heart failure. In particular, the prognostic benefit of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors was demonstrated across all the heart failure phenotypes. Therapies for patients with advanced heart failure (long-term mechanical circulatory supports and heart transplantation) are now indicated also in the case of mild-to-moderate symptoms but with high risk of progression. In patients with acute heart failure, monitoring of urinary sodium and the use of acetazolamide may lead to better decongestion. Importantly, pre- and postdischarge assessment should lead to optimal treatment. Devices and telemonitoring can also be of help. Cardiovascular and noncardiovascular comorbidities are major determinants of the clinical course and need proper management. This review will summarize these important advances.

Heart failure: an update from the last years and a look at the near future

In the last years, major progress occurred in heart failure (HF) management. Quadruple therapy is now mandatory for all the patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Whilst verciguat is becoming available across several countries, omecamtiv mecarbil is waiting to be released for clinical use. Concurrent use of potassium-lowering agents may counteract hyperkalaemia and facilitate renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor implementations. The results of the EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) trial were confirmed by the Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction (DELIVER) trial, and we now have, for the first time, evidence for treatment of also patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction. In a pre-specified meta-analysis of major randomized controlled trials, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors reduced all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, and HF hospitalization in the patients with HF regardless of left ventricular ejection fraction. Other steps forward have occurred in the treatment of decompensated HF. Acetazolamide in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure with Volume Overload (ADVOR) trial showed that the addition of intravenous acetazolamide to loop diuretics leads to greater decongestion vs. placebo. The addition of hydrochlorothiazide to loop diuretics was evaluated in the CLOROTIC trial. Torasemide did not change outcomes, compared with furosemide, in TRANSFORM-HF. Ferric derisomaltose had an effect on the primary outcome of CV mortality or HF rehospitalizations in IRONMAN (rate ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.66-1.02; P = 0.070). Further options for the treatment of HF, including device therapies, cardiac contractility modulation, and percutaneous treatment of valvulopathies, are summarized in this article.

Tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion/pulmonary arterial systolic pressure ratio as a predictor of in-hospital mortality for acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

Right ventricular (RV) function is an important prognostic factor in heart failure. Patients with impaired right ventricular function have a poorer prognosis. The ratio between a tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) is a simple non-invasive parameter that has shown a good correlation with invasively estimated right ventricle (RV)-pulmonary artery (PA) coupling. The current study aimed to determine the value of the non-invasive evaluation of RV-PA coupling using the TAPSE/PASP ratio in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

METHODS

We included 200 patients with (heart failure and reduced ejection fraction) HFrEF presented by acute heart failure. Echocardiographic evaluation for left ventricle systolic and diastolic function was performed at the time of admission. RV functions were evaluated by calculating the following (TAPSE, PSAP, TAPSE/PASP ratio). Data were analyzed to find the predictors of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The study cohort included two hundred consecutive patients who were hospitalized for a diagnosis of acute decompensation of chronic heart failure. The in-hospital mortality rate was 12%. TAPSE/PASP was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality (odd ratio = 3.470; 95% confidence interval, 1.240-9.705, p-value = 0.018) and (odd ratio = 18.813; 95% confidence interval, 1.974-179.275, p-value = 0.011) in univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses respectively. In ROC curve analysis, TAPSE/PASP with a cut-off value < 0.4 mm/mmHg had a sensitivity of 79.17, a specificity of 47.73, and an area under ROC curve = 0.666 for predicting in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The non-invasive TAPSE/PASP ratio could be an independent predictor of mortality in HErEF patients presenting with acute heart failure.

Sex-related prognostic value of systolic blood pressure on admission in critically ill patients with acute decompensated heart failure

The present study aimed to evaluate sex-specific association between admission systolic blood pressure (SBP) and in-hospital prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). In this retrospective, observational study, 1268 ADHF patients requiring intensive care were consecutively enrolled and divided by sex. Patients were divided into three subgroups according to SBP tertiles: high (≥ 122 mmHg), moderate (104-121 mmHg) and low (< 104 mmHg). The primary endpoint was either all-cause mortality, cardiac arrest or utilization of mechanical support devices during hospitalization. Female patients were more likely to be older, have poorer renal function and higher ejection fractions (p < 0.001). The C statistics of SBP was 0.665 (95%CI 0.611-0.719, p < 0.001) for men and 0.548 (95% CI 0.461-0.634, p = 0.237) for women, respectively. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that admission SBP as either a continuous (OR = 0.984, 95% CI 0.973-0.996) or a categorical (low vs. high, OR = 3.293, 95% CI 1.610-6.732) variable was an independent predictor in male but the risk did not statistically differ between the moderate and high SBP strata (OR = 1.557, 95% CI 0.729-3.328). In female, neither low (OR = 1.135, 95% CI 0.328-3.924) nor moderate (OR = 0.989, 95% CI 0.277-3.531) SBP had a significant effect on primary endpoint compared with high SBP strata. No interaction was detected between left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and SBP (p for interaction = 0.805). In ADHF patients admitted to ICU, SBP showed a sex-related prognostic effect on primary endpoint. In male, lower SBP was independently associated with an increased risk of primary endpoint. Conversely, in female, no relationship was observed.

A nomogram to predict the in-hospital mortality of patients with congestive heart failure and chronic kidney disease

AIMS

Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) may also suffer from chronic kidney disease (CKD), and the two conditions may interact to increase the risk of death. The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk factors contributing to in-hospital mortality in patients with CHF and CKD and to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective study used data from the Marketplace for Medical Information in Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, version 1.0). Patients diagnosed with CHF and CKD in MIMIC-IV were included in this study. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression is used to select risk variables for the nomogram model, and bootstrap is used for internal validation. Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS) were compared with the nomogram model by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 4638 adult patients with CHF and CKD were included in the final cohort; of them, 707 (15.2%) died and 3931 (84.8%) survived during hospitalization. Our final model included the following 13 variables: age, acute kidney injury, myocardial infarction, anaemia, heart rate ≥ 100 b.p.m., systolic blood pressure ≥ 130 mmHg, anion gap (AG) ≥ 20 mEq/L, sodium ≥ 145 mEq/L, red blood cell distribution width (RDW) ≥ 15.5%, white blood cell count ≥ 10 K/μL, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, and beta-blocker. The corrected C-statistic of the nomogram was 0.767, and the calibration curve indicating good concordance between the predicted and observed values. The nomogram demonstrated good accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI: 0.752-0.790), while the AUC for SAPS II and LODS was 0.747 (95% CI: 0.726-0.767) and 0.752 (95% CI: 0.730-0.773), respectively. DCA found that when the threshold probability was 0.05 to 0.41, the nomogram model could provide a greater net benefit than SAPS II.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective cohort analysis of patients with CHF and CKD, we identified 13 independent variables associated with in-hospital mortality using LASSO logistic regression. RDW, AG, and CRRT were reported to play a significant role in in-hospital mortality among patients with CHF and CKD for the first time. Based on a simplified model including 13 variables, a nomogram was drawn to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality. In comparison with SAPS II and LODS, the nomogram model performed well.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted for acute heart failure in a single-centre study

Aims

Acute heart failure represents a medical condition with very high mortality. Accurate risk stratification can help physicians to improve the health care about these patients. The aim of our study was to characterize real‐life patients admitted for acute heart failure in a specific region with one tertiary medical centre and to describe risk factors of short‐term and long‐term mortality.

Methods and results

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients admitted from January 2017 to December 2017 to Department of cardiology of the tertiary medical centre University Hospital in Hradec Kralove. We identified 385 patients admitted for acute heart failure to the standard care and intensive care unit. The median of age was 74 years (IQR 67.5–80) and 34% of patients were female. Hospital admission was due to de novo heart failure in 222 (57.7%) patients. The most common comorbidities were arterial hypertension (77.7%), dyslipidaemia (67.3%) and coronary artery disease (63.1%). Coronary artery disease (52.7% of cases) and valve disease (28.1% of cases) were the most common aetiologies of heart failure. The all‐cause in‐hospital mortality was 12.7%, 30‐day mortality was 14.6% and 1 year mortality was 34%. Among risk factors of in‐hospital mortality, the most significant factors were haemodialysis during the hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 15.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.96–84.57, P = 0.0008], chronic heart failure (OR 4.27, 95% CI 1.66–11.03, P = 0.001) and STEMI as a precipitating factor of heart failure (OR 4.19, 95% CI 1.23–14.25, P = 0.023). Haemodialysis during the hospitalization (OR 4.28, 95% CI 1.17–15.61, P = 0.025) and the comorbidity depression and anxiety (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.45–8.39, P = 0.005) were the most significant risk factors of long‐term mortality.

Conclusions

Our study confirms very high mortality rates among patients with acute heart failure underlying poor prognosis of these patients. Comorbidities (peripheral artery disease, atrial fibrillation, chronic heart failure and depression and anxiety), precipitating factors of heart failure (myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation), complications occurring during the hospitalization (acute kidney injury, pulmonary ventilation for respiratory failure and haemodialysis) and the age of patients should be included in the risk stratification of in‐hospital, 30 day and 1 year mortality.

Predictors of readmission in hospitalized heart failure patients

Introduction: Heart failure(HF) related hospitalization constitutes a significant proportion of healthcare cost. Unchanging rates of readmission during recent years, shows the importance of addressing this problem. Methods: Patients admitted with heart failure diagnosis in our institution during April 2018to August 2018 were selected. Clinical, para-clinical and imaging data were recorded. All included patients were followed up for 6 months. The primary endpoints of the study were prevalence of early readmission and the predictors of that. Secondary end points were in-hospital and 6-month post-discharge mortality rate and late readmission rate. Results: After excluding 94 patients due to missing data, 428 patients were selected. Mean age of patients was 58.5 years (±17.4) and 61% of patients were male. During follow-up, 99patients (24%) were readmitted. Early re-admission (30-day) occurred in 27 of the patients(6.6%). The predictors of readmission were older age ( P=0.006), lower LVEF (P <0.0001), higher body weight (P=0.01), ICD/CRT implantation ( P=0.001), Lower sodium ( P=0.01), higher Pro-BNP(P=0.01), Higher WBC count (P=0.01) and higher BUN level (P=0.02). Independent predictors of early readmission were history of device implantation (P=0.007), lower LVEF (P=0.016), QRS duration more than 120 ms (P=0.037), higher levels of BUN (P=0.008), higher levels of Pro-BNP(P=0.037) and higher levels of uric acid (P=0.035). Secondary end points including in-hospital and 6-month post-discharge mortality occurred in 11% and 14.4% of patients respectively. Conclusion: Lower age of our heart failure patients and high prevalence of ischemic cardiomyopathy, necessitate focusing on more preventable factors related to heart failure.

A year in heart failure: an update of recent findings

Major changes have occurred in these last years in heart failure (HF) management. Landmark trials and the 2021 European Society of Cardiology guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of HF have established four classes of drugs for treatment of HF with reduced ejection fraction: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, namely, dapagliflozin or empagliflozin. These drugs consistently showed benefits on mortality, HF hospitalizations, and quality of life. Correction of iron deficiency is indicated to improve symptoms and reduce HF hospitalizations. AFFIRM-AHF showed 26% reduction in total HF hospitalizations with ferric carboxymaltose vs. placebo in patients hospitalized for acute HF (P = 0.013). The guanylate cyclase activator vericiguat and the myosin activator omecamtiv mecarbil improved outcomes in randomized placebo-controlled trials, and vericiguat is now approved for clinical practice. Treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) was a major unmet clinical need until this year when the results of EMPEROR-Preserved (EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic HFpEF) were issued. Compared with placebo, empagliflozin reduced by 21% (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.90; P < 0.001), the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. Advances in the treatment of specific phenotypes of HF, including atrial fibrillation, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathies, cardiac amyloidosis, and cancer-related HF, also occurred. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic still plays a major role in HF epidemiology and management. All these aspects are highlighted in this review.

Discrete Heart Rate Values or Continuous Streams? Representation, Variability, and Meaningful Use of Vital Sign Data

Documentation and review of patient heart rate are a fundamental process across a myriad of clinical settings. While historically recorded manually, bedside monitors now provide for the automated collection of such data. Despite the availability of continuous streaming data, patients' charts continue to reflect only a subset of this information as snapshots recorded throughout a hospitalization. Over the past decade, prominent works have explored the implications of such practices and established fundamental differences in the alignment of discrete charted vitals and steaming data captured by monitoring systems. Limited work has examined the temporal properties of these differences, how they manifest, and their relation to clinical applications. The work presented in this article addresses this disparity, providing evidence that differences between charting techniques extend to measures of variability. Our results demonstrate how variability manifests with respect to temporal elements of charting timing and how it can facilitate personalized care by contextualizing deviations in magnitude. This work also highlights the utility of variability metrics with relation to clinical measures including associations to severity scores and a case study utilizing complex variability metrics derived from the complete set of monitor data.

Electronic healthcare records and external outcome data for hospitalized patients with heart failure

Heart failure is one of the most important reasons for hospitalization among elderly individuals and is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. Epidemiological studies require the establishment of high-quality databases. Several datasets that primarily involve heart failure populations have been established in Western countries and have generated many high-quality studies. However, no such dataset is available from China. Due to differences in genetic background and healthcare systems between China and Western countries, the establishment of a heart failure database for the Chinese population is urgently needed. We performed a retrospective single-center observational study to collect data regarding the characteristics of heart failure patients in China by integrating electronic healthcare records and follow-up outcome data. The study collected information for a total of 2,008 patients with heart failure, containing 166 attributes.

Heart failure in the last year: progress and perspective

Research about heart failure (HF) has made major progress in the last years. We give here an update on the most recent findings. Landmark trials have established new treatments for HF with reduced ejection fraction. Sacubitril/valsartan was superior to enalapril in PARADIGM-HF trial, and its initiation during hospitalization for acute HF or early after discharge can now be considered. More recently, new therapeutic pathways have been developed. In the DAPA-HF and EMPEROR-Reduced trials, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint, compared with placebo [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.85; P < 0.001 and HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65-0.86; P < 0.001, respectively]. Second, vericiguat, an oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization vs. placebo (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.98; P = 0.02). On the other hand, both the diagnosis and treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction, as well as management of advanced HF and acute HF, remain challenging. A better phenotyping of patients with HF would be helpful for prognostic stratification and treatment selection. Further aspects, such as the use of devices, treatment of arrhythmias, and percutaneous treatment of valvular heart disease in patients with HF, are also discussed and reviewed in this article.

In-hospital and long-term mortality for acute heart failure: analysis at the time of admission to the emergency department

AIMS

Acute heart failure (AHF) leads to a drastic increase in mortality and rehospitalization. The aim of the study was to identify prognostic variables in a real-life population of AHF patients admitted to the emergency department with acute shortness of breath.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated potential predictors of mortality in 728 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency department with AHF. Possible predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality were investigated by Cox and Fine and Gray models at multivariable analysis. Among the 728 patients, 256 died during the entire follow-up, 142 of these due to CV cause. The 1 year mortality rate was 20%, with the highest risk of death during the index hospitalization (with 8% estimate in-hospital mortality at 30 days). A higher risk of events during the index hospitalization was more evident for the CV deaths, for which we found a cumulative 1 year incidence of 12% with a cumulative incidence in the first 30 days of hospitalization of about 5%. At multivariable analysis, age (P < 0.001), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV vs. I-II-III (P = 0.001), systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), non-cardiac co-morbidities (≥3 vs. 0, P = 0.05), oxygen saturation (P = 0.03), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.004; ≥50% vs. <40%, P = 0.003) were independent predictors of all-cause mortality during the entire follow-up. Age (P = 0.03), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.01), oxygen saturation (P = 0.03), serum creatinine (P = 0.02), and LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.03; ≥50% vs. <40%, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of CV mortality during the entire follow-up. NYHA class IV vs. I-II-III (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.01), and LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.02; ≥50% vs. <40%, P < 0.001) remained independent predictors for in-hospital death, while only serum creatinine (P = 0.04), LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%: 0.32, P = 0.04; ≥50% vs. <40%, P < 0.001), and NYHA class vs. I-II-III (P = 0.02) remained predictors for in-hospital CV mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-life cohort of patients with AHF, the results showed a similar mortality rate comparing with other analysis and with the most important registries. Age, NYHA class IV, systolic blood pressure, creatinine levels, sodium levels, and ejection fraction were independent predictors of 1 year mortality, while LVEF <40% was the only predictor of both all-cause mortality and CV mortality.