A longitudinal study of cognitive trajectories in Mexican Americans age 75 and older

A Subtype Perspective on Cognitive Trajectories in Healthy Aging

Cognitive aging is a complex and dynamic process characterized by changes due to genetics and environmental factors, including lifestyle choices and environmental exposure, which contribute to the heterogeneity observed in cognitive outcomes. This heterogeneity is particularly pronounced among older adults, with some individuals maintaining stable cognitive function while others experience complex, non-linear changes, making it difficult to identify meaningful decline accurately. Current research methods range from population-level modeling to individual-specific assessments. In this work, we review these methodologies and propose that population subtyping should be considered as a viable alternative. This approach relies on early individual-specific detection methods that can lead to an improved understanding of changes in individual cognitive trajectories. The improved understanding of cognitive trajectories through population subtyping can lead to the identification of meaningful changes and the determination of timely, effective interventions. This approach can aid in informing policy decisions and in developing targeted interventions that promote cognitive health, ultimately contributing to a more personalized understanding of the aging process within society and reducing the burden on healthcare systems.

Latent trajectories of recent and delayed memory and their predictors: evidence from SHARE

OBJECTIVES

Cognitive decline is common in the old age, but some evidence suggests it may already occur during adulthood. Previous studies have linked age, gender, educational attainment, depression, physical activity, and social engagement to better cognitive performance over time. However, most studies have used global measures of cognition, which could mask subtle changes in specific cognitive domains. The aim of this study is to examine trajectories of recent and delayed memory recall from a variable-centered perspective, in order to elucidate the impact of age, gender, educational attainment, depression, physical activity, and social engagement on recent and delayed memory both at initial time and across a 10-year period.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

The sample was formed by 56,616 adults and older adults that participated in waves 4 to 8 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).

ANALYSES

We used latent growth modeling to establish latent recent and delayed memory trajectories, and then tested the effects of the aforementioned covariates on the latent intercept and slopes.

RESULTS

Results showed that both recent and delayed recall display a quadratic trajectory of decline. All covariates significantly explained initial levels of immediate and delayed recall, but only a few had statistically significant effects on the slope terms.

CONCLUSIONS

We discuss differences between present results and those previously reported in studies using a person-centered approach. This study provides evidence of memory decline during adulthood and old adulthood. Further, results provide support for the neural compensation reserve theory.

Exploring cognitive trajectories and their association with physical performance: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVES

The long-term trends of cognitive function and its associations with physical performance remain unclear, particularly in Asian populations. The study objectives were to determine cognitive trajectories in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals, as well as to examine differences in physical performance across cognitive trajectory groups.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. A total of 5,701 participants (47.7% male) with a mean age of 57.8 (standard deviation, 8.4) years at enrollment were included. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify cognitive trajectory groups for each sex. Grip strength, repeated chair stand, and standing balance tests were used to evaluate physical performance. An ordered logistic regression model was employed to analyze differences in physical performance across cognitive trajectory groups.

RESULTS

Three cognitive trajectory groups were identified for each sex: low, middle, and high. For both sexes, higher cognitive trajectory groups exhibited smaller declines with age. In the fully adjusted model, relative to the low trajectory group, the odds ratios (ORs) of better physical performance in the middle cognitive group were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17 to 1.59; p<0.001) during follow-up and 1.40 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.64; p<0.001) at the endpoint. The ORs in the high trajectory group were 1.94 (95% CI, 1.61 to 2.32; p<0.001) during follow-up and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.45; p<0.001) at the endpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Cognitive function was better preserved in male participants and individuals with higher baseline cognitive function. A higher cognitive trajectory was associated with better physical performance over time.

Predicting the long-term cognitive trajectories using machine learning approaches: A Chinese nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the long-term cognitive trajectories and its' determinants, and construct prediction models for identifying high-risk populations with unfavorable cognitive trajectories.

METHODS

This study included 3502 older adults aged 65-105 years at their first observations in a 16-year longitudinal cohort study. Cognitive function was measured by the Chinese version Mini Mental State Examination. The heterogeneity of cognitive function was identified through mixed growth model. Machine learning algorithms, namely regularized logistic regression (r-LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and super learner (SL) were used to predict cognitive trajectories. Discrimination and calibration metrics were used for performance evaluation.

RESULTS

Two distinct trajectories were identified according to the changes of MMSE scores: intact cognitive functioning (93.6%), and dementia (6.4%). Older age, female gender, Han ethnicity, having no schooling, rural residents, low-frequency leisure activities, and low baseline BADL score were associated with a rapid decline in cognitive function. r-LR, SVM, and SL performed well in predicting cognitive trajectories (Sensitivity: 0.73, G-mean: 0.65). Age and psychological well-being were key predictors.

CONCLUSION

Two cognitive trajectories were identified among older Chinese, and the identified key factors could be targeted for constructing early risk prediction models.

Trajectories of Concurrent Depressive Symptoms and Cognitive Function on Health Outcomes and Mortality among Older Mexican Americans

BACKGROUND

We sought to identify distinctive concurrent trajectory classes of depressive symptoms (DS) and cognitive function (CF) in Mexican Americans aged 75+ years, and to examine whether these trajectories were associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes.

METHODS

We used 4 waves of Hispanic Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (H-EPESE) data from 2004 to 5 to 2013. Latent growth curve analysis was used to identify distinctive concurrent trajectory classes of DS and CF. Generalized linear mixed models were further used to examine the association between the concurrent trajectories and health outcomes. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the risk of mortality as a function of the concurrent trajectories.

RESULTS

1,302 older adults followed-up approximately 9-years were successfully classified into 6 distinct concurrent trajectory classes of DS (low-increasing, high) and CF (high, high-declining, medium-declining). Compared to the co-occurrence of low DS and high CF trajectories, those with the high DS and declining CF trajectories were at greater risk of ADL and IADL functional limitations (1.6 - 2.9 times), more medical visits (1.3 - 1.4 times), hospital admissions (1.6 - 1.9 times), and mortality (1.7 - 2.6 times).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in adverse health outcomes across concurrent trajectory classes of DS and CF suggest that differences in underlying co-occurrence and progression have important implications for public health interventions as well as development of aging social and health policies.

Determinants of Cognitive Trajectories in Normal Aging: A Longitudinal PET-MRI Study in a Community-based Cohort

BACKGROUND

The determinants of the progressive decrement of cognition in normal aging are still a matter of debate. Alzheimer disease (AD)-signature markers and vascular lesions, but also psychological variables such as personality factors, are thought to have an impact on the longitudinal trajectories of neuropsychological performances in healthy elderly individuals.

OBJECTIVE

The current research aimed to identify the main determinants associated with cognitive trajectories in normal aging.

METHODS

We performed a 4.5-year longitudinal study in 90 older community-dwellers coupling two neuropsychological assessments, medial temporal atrophy (MTA), number of cerebral microbleeds (CMB), and white matter hyperintensities (WMH) at inclusion, visual rating of amyloid and FDG PET at follow-up, and APOE genotyping. Personality factors were assessed at baseline using the NEO-PIR. Univariate and backward stepwise regression models were built to explore the association between the continuous cognitive score (CCS) and both imaging and personality variables.

RESULTS

The number of strictly lobar CMB at baseline (4 or more) was related to a significant increase in the risk of cognitive decrement. In multivariable models, amyloid positivity was associated with a 1.73 unit decrease of the CCS at follow-up. MTA, WMH and abnormal FDG PET were not related to the cognitive outcome. Among personality factors, only higher agreeableness was related to better preservation of neuropsychological performances.

CONCLUSION

CMB and amyloid positivity are the only imaging determinants of cognitive trajectories in this highly selected series of healthy controls. Among personality factors, higher agreeableness confers a modest but significant protection against the decline of cognitive performances.

Microbleeds and Medial Temporal Atrophy Determine Cognitive Trajectories in Normal Aging: A Longitudinal PET-MRI Study

BACKGROUND

The cognitive trajectories in normal aging may be affected by medial temporal atrophy (MTA) and amyloid burden, as well as vascular pathologies such as cortical microbleeds (CMB) and white matter hyperintensities (WMH).

OBJECTIVE

We addressed here the role of imaging markers in their prediction in a real-world situation.

METHODS

We performed a 4.5-year longitudinal study in 90 older community-dwellers coupling two neuropsychological assessments, MTA estimated with the Schelten's scale, number of CMB, and WMH evaluated with the Fazekas score at inclusion and follow-up, visual rating of amyloid PET and glucose hypometabolism at follow-up, and APOE genotyping. Regression models were built to explore the association between the continuous cognitive score (CCS) and imaging parameters.

RESULTS

The number of strictly lobar CMB at baseline (4 or more) was related to a 5.5-fold increase of the risk of cognitive decrement. This association persisted in multivariable models explaining 10.6% of the CCS decrease variance. MTA, and Fazekas score at baseline and amyloid positivity or abnormal FDG PET, were not related to the cognitive outcome. The increase of right MTA at follow-up was the only correlate of CCS decrease both in univariate and multivariable models explaining 9.2% of its variance.

CONCLUSION

The present data show that the accumulation of more than four CMB is associated with significant cognitive decrement over time in highly educated elderly persons. They also reveal that the progressive deterioration of cognitive performance within the age-adjusted norms is also related to the increase of visually assessed MTA.

Trajectories of Cognitive and Motor Function Between Ages 45 and 90 Years: A Population-Based Study

Background

To establish trajectories of cognitive and motor function, and to determine the sequence of change across individual tests in community-dwelling individuals aged 45–90 years.

Method

Between 1997 and 2016, we repeatedly assessed cognitive function with 5 tests in 9514 participants aged 45–90 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Between 1999 and 2016, we measured motor function with 3 tests in 8297 participants. All participants were free from dementia, stroke, and parkinsonism. We assessed overall and education-specific cognitive and motor trajectories using linear mixed models with age as time scale. Next, we determined the sequence of change across individual tests.

Results

The number of assessments per participant ranged between 1 and 6 (mean interval, years [SD]: 5.1 [1.4]) for cognitive function, and 1 and 4 (5.4 [1.4]) for motor function. Cognitive and motor trajectories declined linearly between ages 45 and 65 years, followed by steeper declines after ages 65–70 years. Lower educated participants had lower cognitive function at age 45 years (baseline), and declined faster on most cognitive, but not on motor tests than higher educated participants. Up to a 25-year age difference between the fastest and slowest declining test scores was observed.

Conclusions

On a population-level, cognitive and motor function decline similarly. Compared to higher educated individuals, lower educated individuals had lower cognitive function at baseline, and a faster rate of decline thereafter. These educational-effects were not seen for motor function. These findings benefit the understanding of the natural course of cognitive and motor function during aging, and highlight the role of education in the preservation of cognitive but not motor function.

The Effects of the BAILAMOSTM Dance Program on Physical Activity Levels and Cognition of Older Latino Adults: A Pilot Study

Objective: To investigate the effects of the BAILAMOS^TM dance program on physical activity (PA), cardiorespiratory, and cognitive health. Methods: A parallel, two-armed pilot study was conducted with 57 older Latinos randomized to the BAILAMOS^TM dance program (n = 28) or health education (HE) (n = 29). We conducted two- and three-way repeated-measures ANOVAs. Results: BAILAMOS^TM participants increased participation in leisure moderate-to-vigorous PA (LMVPA) (F[1,53] = 3.17, p = .048, η²_G = .01) and performance in global cognition relative to HE participants (F[1,52] = 4.19, p = .045, η²_G = .01). Attendance moderated increases in moderate PA, MVPA, LMVPA, and total PA (p < .05). Participants of both groups with ≥75% attendance increased participation in PA. Among participants with <75% attendance, BAILAMOS^TM participants increased PA relative to HE. Discussion: BAILAMOS^TM positively impacted self-reported PA and global cognition in older Latinos. Even smaller doses of dance appear to impact self-reported PA levels.

Health and social correlates of dementia in oldest-old Mexican-origin populations

INTRODUCTION

Substantial gaps in research remain across oldest-old ethnic populations while the burden of dementia increases exponentially with age among Mexican and Mexican American older adults.

METHODS

Prevalence and correlates of dementia among individuals ≥82 years of age were examined using two population-based cohort studies: The Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS, n = 1078, 2012) and the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (HEPESE, n = 735, 2012-2013). The analytic MHAS and HEPESE samples had an average age of 86.4 and 88.0 years, 1.2 and 1.8 women to men, and 2.7 and 5.1 average years of education, respectively.

RESULTS

We identified 316 (29.2%) and 267 (36.3%) cases of likely dementia in the MHAS and HEPESE cohorts, respectively. For Mexicans but not Mexican Americans, age-adjusted prevalence rates of likely dementia were higher in women than men. For both populations prevalence rates increased with age and decreased with education for Mexican Americans but not for Mexicans. In both populations, odds of likely dementia increased with age. Health insurance for the low-income was significantly associated with higher odds of likely dementia for Mexican American men and women and Mexican women but not men. Living in extended households increased the odds of likely dementia in women, but not in men for both studies. Multiple cardiovascular conditions increased the odds of likely dementia for Mexicans but not for Mexican Americans.

DISCUSSION

Our study provides evidence of the high burden of dementia among oldest-old Mexicans and Mexican Americans and its association with health and social vulnerabilities.

Distinct Cognitive Trajectories in Late Life and Associated Predictors and Outcomes: A Systematic Review

Background

Cognitive aging is a dynamic process in late life with significant heterogeneity across individuals.

Objective

To review the evidence for latent classes of cognitive trajectories and to identify the associated predictors and outcomes.

Methods

A systematic search was performed in MEDLINE and EMBASE for articles that identified two or more cognitive trajectories in adults. The study was conducted following the PRISMA statement.

Results

Thirty-seven studies were included, ranging from 219 to 9,704 participants, with a mean age of 60 to 93.4 years. Most studies (n = 30) identified distinct cognitive trajectories using latent class growth analysis. The trajectory profile commonly consisted of three to four classes with progressively decreasing baseline and increasing rate of decline-a 'stable-high' class characterized as maintenance of cognitive function at high level, a 'minor-decline' class or 'stable-medium' class that declines gradually over time, and a 'rapid-decline' class with the steepest downward slope. Generally, membership of better classes was predicted by younger age, being female, more years of education, better health, healthier lifestyle, higher social engagement and lack of genetic risk variants. Some factors (e.g., education) were found to be associated with cognitive function over time only within individual classes.

Conclusion

Cognitive aging in late life is a dynamic process with significant inter-individual variability. However, it remains unclear whether similar patterns of cognitive aging are observed across all cognitive domains. Further research into unique factors which promote the maintenance of high-cognitive function is needed to help inform public policy.

Joint trajectories of cognition and gait speed in Mexican American and European American older adults: The San Antonio longitudinal study of aging

OBJECTIVES

Cognitive decline and gait speed slowing are independent predictors of disability and mortality. While both factors increase in prevalence with advancing age, little is known about their combined patterns of change. The study goal was to identify joint trajectories of cognition and gait speed within an aging bi-ethnic cohort of Mexican Americans and European Americans.

METHODS/DESIGN

Participants included 182 Mexican Americans and 188 European Americans, ages 65 to 74, who were followed over a mean of 9.5 years. Cognition was assessed with the mini-mental state examination and gait speed was examined with a timed 10-ft walk. Joint trajectory classes of cognition and gait speed were identified with latent growth mixture modeling. Odd-ratios assessed predictors for trajectory classes.

RESULTS

Three latent trajectory classes were identified: (a) relatively stable cognition and gait (termed stable cognition and gait class, 65.4%); (b) deteriorating cognition and gait (termed cognitive and physical vulnerability class, 22.2%); (c) stable cognition and deteriorating gait (termed physical vulnerability class, 12.4%). The odds of classification in the cognitive and physical vulnerability class vs stable cognition and gait class was associated with Mexican American ethnicity (OR = 3.771, P = .016), age (OR = 1.186, P = .017), income (OR = 0.828, P = .029), education (OR = 0.703, P < .001), and diabetes (OR = 4.547, P = .010). The odds of classification in the physical vulnerability class was associated with female sex (OR = 6.481, P = .004) and body mass index (OR = 1.118, P = .025).

CONCLUSIONS

The trajectories of cognition and gait speed were generally parallel, suggesting the two domains may act synergistically to shape important health outcomes. Socioeconomic disparities and Mexican American ethnicity independently conferred risk for accelerated decline.

Mobility but Not Balance Limitations Are Associated With Cognitive Decline among Older Hispanics

Aging is associated with changes in lower-body functioning. The extent to which lower-body function is associated with cognitive changes over time is unclear, especially among older Hispanics, a high-risk population for declines in physical and cognitive functioning. We sought to determine if the association between lower-body functioning and cognitive decline over 9-years differentially varied with respect to balance, gait speed, lower-body strength (chair stands), or a summary score of the three measures. This retrospective cohort study used clinical performance data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (H-EPESE). Cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental Status Exam. Linear mixed modeling was used to investigate the association between lower-body function and cognitive decline, controlling for patients' demographic and health characteristics. We found that gait speed and timed chair stands but not balance were associated with accelerated cognitive decline in Mexican-Americans age 75 years and older. These parameters of lower-body function can be feasibly measured in any clinic. As limitations in lower-body functioning may be an early marker of cognitive decline, this suggests an opportunity for the development of interventions to slow cognitive and physical disablement and promote successful aging among persons older than 75 years.

An Agenda for Addressing Multimorbidity and Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia

Advancements in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) research on the U.S. population acknowledge the importance of the high burden of ADRD on segments of the population and yet-to-be characterized risks attributable to the burden of multiple chronic diseases (multimorbidity). These realizations suggest successful strategies in caring for people with ADRD and their caregivers will rely not only on clinical treatments but also on more refined and comprehensive models of ADRD that take its broad effects on the whole-person and the whole of society into consideration. To this end, it is critical to characterize and address the relationship between ADRD and multimorbidity combinations that complicate care and lead to poor outcomes, particularly with regard to racial and ethnic disparities in the occurrence, course, and effects of ADRD. Several research and policy recommendations are presented to address the intersection of ADRD, multimorbidity, and underrepresented populations most at risk for adverse outcomes.

Amyloid Load, Hippocampal Volume Loss, and Diffusion Tensor Imaging Changes in Early Phases of Brain Aging

Background and Purpose

Amyloid imaging, gray matter (GM) morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) have all been used as predictive biomarkers in dementia. Our objective was to define the imaging profile of healthy elderly controls as a function of their cognitive trajectories and explore whether amyloid burden and white matter (WM) microstructure changes are associated with subtle decrement of neuropsychological performances in old age.

Materials and Methods

We performed a 4.5-year longitudinal study in 133 elderly individuals who underwent cognitive testing at inclusion and follow-up, amyloid PET, MRI including DTI sequences at inclusion, and APOE epsilon 4 genotyping. All cases were assessed using a continuous cognitive score (CCS) taking into account the global evolution of neuropsychological performances. Data processing included region of interest analysis of amyloid PET analysis, GM densities and tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS)-DTI. Regression models were built to explore the association between the CCS and imaging parameters controlling for significant demographic and clinical covariates.

Results

Amyloid uptake was not related to the cognitive outcome. In contrast, GM densities in bilateral hippocampus were associated with worst CCS at follow-up. In addition, radial and axial diffusivities in left hippocampus were negatively associated with CCS. Amyloid load was associated with decreased VBM and increased radial and axial diffusivity in the same area. These associations persisted when adjusting for gender and APOE4 genotype. Importantly, they were absent in amygdala and neocortical areas studied.

Conclusion

The progressive decrement of neuropsychological performances in normal aging is associated with volume loss and WM microstructure changes in hippocampus long before the emergence of clinically overt symptoms. Higher amyloid load in hippocampus is compatible with cognitive preservation in cases with better preservation of GM densities and WM microstructure in this area.

Gray Matter Densities in Limbic Areas and APOE4 Independently Predict Cognitive Decline in Normal Brain Aging

Cross-sectional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies reported significant associations between gray matter (GM) density changes in various limbic and neocortical areas and worst cognitive performances in elderly controls. Longitudinal studies in this field remain scarce and led to conflicting data. We report a clinico-radiological investigation of 380 cognitively preserved individuals who undergo neuropsychological assessment at baseline and after 18 months. All cases were assessed using a continuous cognitive score taking into account the global evolution of neuropsychological performances. The vast majority of Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) 29 and 30 cases showed equal or worst performance at follow-up due to a ceiling effect. GM densities, white matter hyperintensities and arterial spin labeling (ASL) values were assessed in the hippocampus, amygdala, mesial temporal and parietal cortex at inclusion using 3 Tesla MRI Scans. Florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET) amyloid was available in a representative subsample of 64 cases. Regional amyloid uptake ratios (SUVr), mean cortical SUVr values (mcSUVr) and corresponding z-scores were calculated. Linear regression models were built to explore the association between the continuous cognitive score and imaging variables. The presence of an APOE-ε4 allele was negatively related to the continuous cognitive score. Among the areas studied, significant associations were found between GM densities in the hippocampus and amygdala but not mesial temporal and parietal areas and continuous cognitive score. Neither ASL values, Fazekas score nor mean and regional PET amyloid load was related to the cognitive score. In multivariate models, the presence of APOE-ε4 allele and GM densities in the hippocampus and amygdala were independently associated with worst cognitive evolution at follow-up. Our data support the idea that early GM damage in the hippocampus and amygdala occur long before the emergence of the very first signs of cognitive failure in brain aging.

Alterations in brain TREM2 and Amyloid-β levels are associated with neurocognitive impairment in HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy

Neuroinflammation is a common pathological correlate of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) in individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) regulates neuroinflammation, clears extracellular Amyloid (A)-β, surveys for damaged neurons, and orchestrates microglial differentiation. TREM2 has not been studied in HIV+ brain tissues. In this retrospective study, we investigated TREM2 expression levels and localization to microglia, Aβ protein levels, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α transcript levels in the frontal cortices of 52 HIV+ decedents. All donors had been on ART; 14 were cognitively normal (CN), 17 had an asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment (ANI), and 21 had a minor neurocognitive disorder (MND). Total TREM2 protein levels were increased in the soluble and decreased in the membrane-enriched fractions of MND brain tissues compared to CN; however, brains from MND Hispanics showed the most robust alterations in TREM2 as well as significantly increased TNF-α mRNA and Aβ levels when compared to CN Hispanics. Significant alterations in the expression of total TREM2 protein and transcripts for TNF-α were not observed in non-Hispanics, despite higher levels of Aβ in the non-Hispanic CN group compared to the non-Hispanic MND groups. These findings show that decreased and increased TREM2 in membrane-bound fractions and in soluble-enriched fractions, respectively, is associated with increased Aβ and neuroinflammation in this cohort of HIV+ brains, particularly those identifying as Hispanics. These findings suggest a role for TREM2 in the brain of HIV+ individuals may deserve more investigation as a biomarker for HAND and as a possible therapeutic target. OPEN SCIENCE BADGES: This article has received a badge for *Open Materials* because it provided all relevant information to reproduce the study in the manuscript. The complete Open Science Disclosure form for this article can be found at the end of the article. More information about the Open Practices badges can be found at https://cos.io/our-services/open-science-badges/.

Episodic memory performance in a multi-ethnic longitudinal study of 13,037 elderly

Age-related changes in memory are not uniform, even in the absence of dementia. Characterization of non-disease associated cognitive changes is crucial to gain a more complete understanding of brain aging. Episodic memory was investigated in 13,037 ethnically diverse elderly (ages 72 to 85 years) with two to 15 years of follow-up, and with known dementia status, age, sex, education, and APOE genotypes. Adjusted trajectories of episodic memory performance over time were estimated using Latent Class Mixed Models. Analysis was conducted using two samples at baseline evaluation: i) non-cognitively impaired individuals, and ii) all individuals regardless of dementia status. We calculated the age-specific annual incidence rates of dementia in the non-demented elderly (n = 10,220). Two major episodic memory trajectories were estimated: 1) Stable-consisting of individuals exhibiting a constant or improved memory function, and 2) Decliner-consisting of individuals whose memory function declined. The majority of the study participants maintain their memory performance over time. Compared to those with Stable trajectory, individuals characterized as Decliners were more likely to have non-white ethnic background, fewer years of education, a higher frequency of ε4 allele at APOE gene and five times more likely to develop dementia. The steepest decline in episodic memory was observed in Caribbean-Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic whites (p = 4.3 x 10(-15)). The highest incident rates of dementia were observed in the oldest age group, among those of Caribbean-Hispanics ancestry and among Decliners who exhibited rates five times higher than those with Stable trajectories (11 per 100 person-years versus 3 per 100 person-years. Age, education, ethnic background and APOE genotype influence the maintenance of episodic memory. Declining memory is one of the strongest predictors of incident dementia.