Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir)

Risk prediction of cholangitis after stent implantation based on machine learning

The risk of cholangitis after ERCP implantation in malignant obstructive jaundice patients remains unknown. To develop models based on artificial intelligence methods to predict cholangitis risk more accurately, according to patients after stent implantation in patients' MOJ clinical data. This retrospective study included 218 patients with MOJ undergoing ERCP surgery. A total of 27 clinical variables were collected as input variables. Seven models (including univariate analysis and six machine learning models) were trained and tested for classified prediction. The model' performance was measured by AUROC. The RFT model demonstrated excellent performances with accuracies up to 0.86 and AUROC up to 0.87. Feature selection in RF and SHAP was similar, and the choice of the best variable subset produced a high performance with an AUROC up to 0.89. We have developed a hybrid machine learning model with better predictive performance than traditional LR prediction models, as well as other machine learning models for cholangitis based on simple clinical data. The model can assist doctors in clinical diagnosis, adopt reasonable treatment plans, and improve the survival rate of patients.

Statewide Survey of Primary Care and Subspecialty Providers on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk-Stratification and Surveillance Practices

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is associated with improved survival. Provision of HCC surveillance is low in the US, particularly in primary care settings.

AIMS

To evaluate current hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HCC surveillance practices and physician attitudes regarding HCC risk-stratification among primary care and subspecialty providers.

METHODS

Using the Tailored Design Method, we delivered a 34-item online survey to 7654 North Carolina-licensed internal/family medicine or gastroenterology/hepatology physicians and advanced practice providers in 2022. We included the domains of HCV treatment, cirrhosis diagnosis, HCC surveillance practices, barriers to surveillance, and interest in risk-stratification tools. We performed descriptive analyses to summarize responses. Tabulations were weighted based on sampling weights accounting for non-response and inter-specialty comparisons were made using chi-squared or t test statistics.

RESULTS

After exclusions, 266 responses were included in the final sample (response rate 3.8%). Most respondents (78%) diagnosed cirrhosis using imaging and a minority used non-invasive tests that were blood-based (~ 15%) or transient elastography (31%). Compared to primary care providers, subspecialists were more likely to perform HCC surveillance every 6-months (vs annual) (98% vs 35%, p < 0.0001). Most respondents (80%) believed there were strong data to support HCC surveillance, but primary care providers did not know which liver disease patients needed surveillance. Most providers (> 70%) expressed interest in potential solutions to improve HCC risk-stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

In this statewide survey, there were great knowledge gaps in HCC surveillance among PCPs and most respondents expressed interest in strategies to increase appropriate HCC surveillance.

Study protocol for FASTRAK: a randomised controlled trial evaluating the cost impact and effectiveness of FAST-MRI for HCC suRveillance in pAtients with high risK of liver cancer

INTRODUCTION

The surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using semi-annual liver ultrasound (US) is justified in patients with cirrhosis. In this context, US has a low sensitivity (<30%) for the detection of HCC at the very early stage (ie, Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) 0, uninodular tumour <2 cm). The sensitivity of abbreviated liver MRI (AMRI) is reported to exceed 80%, but its use is hampered by costs and availability. Our hypothesis is that AMRI used as a screening examination in patients at high risk of HCC (>3% per year) could increase the rates of patients with a tumour detected at an early stage accessible to curative-intent treatment, and demonstrate its cost-effectiveness in this population.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The FASTRAK trial is a multicentre, randomised controlled trial with two parallel arms, aiming for superiority and conducted on patients at high risk for HCC (yearly HCC incidence >3%). Randomisation will be conducted on an individual basis with a centralised approach and stratification by centre. After inclusion in the trial, each patient will be randomly assigned to the experimental group (semi-annual US and AMRI) or the control group (semi-annual US alone). The main objective is to assess the cost/quality-adjusted life year and cost/patient detected with a BCLC 0 HCC in both arms. A total of 944 patients will be recruited in 37 tertiary French centres during a 36-month period and will be followed-up during 36 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The FASTRAK trial received ethical approval on 4 April 2022. Results will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals as well as presentation at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinical trial number (ClinicaTrials.gov) NCT05095714.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

What to do about hepatocellular carcinoma: Recommendations for health authorities from the International Liver Cancer Association

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major public health problem worldwide for which the incidence and mortality are similar, pointing to the lack of effective treatment options. Knowing the different issues involved in the management of HCC, from risk factors to screening and management, is essential to improve the prognosis and quality of life of affected individuals. This document summarises the current state of knowledge and the unmet needs for all the different stakeholders in the care of liver cancer, meaning patients, relatives, physicians, regulatory agencies and health authorities so that optimal care can be delivered to patients. The document was commissioned by the International Liver Cancer Association and was reviewed by senior members, including two ex-presidents of the Association. This document lays out the recommended approaches to the societal management of HCC based on the economic status of a given region.

Modified preoperative score to predict disease-free survival for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with surgical resections

BACKGROUND

No prognostic models specific to hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving surgical resection have been considered strong and convincing enough for survival prediction thus far, and there are no models including only preoperative predictors. We derived a nomogram to predict disease-free survival in a previous study.

AIM

To simplify our score and compare research outcomes among other scoring systems.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 1106 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent liver resection at the Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital between April 2003 and December 2012. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the significant survival predictors. Homogeneity, Harrell’s C-index, and Akaike information criterion were compared between our score, AJCC 8^th edition, Tokyo score, and Taipei Integrated Scoring System (TTV-CTP-AFP model).

RESULTS

Among the 1106 patients, 731 (66.1%) had tumor recurrence at a median follow-up of 83.9 mo. Five risk factors were identified: platelet count, albumin level, indocyanine green retention rate, multiplicity, and radiologic total tumor volume. Patients were divided into three risk groups, and the 5-year survival rates were 61.7%, 39%, and 25.7%, respectively. The C-index was 0.617, which was higher than the Tokyo score (0.613) and the Taipei Integrated Scoring System (0.562) and equal to the value of the AJCC 8^th edition (0.617).

CONCLUSION

The modified score provides an easier method to predict survival. Appropriate treatment can be planned preoperatively by dividing patients into risk groups.

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach

To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer‐specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10‐year HCC‐CFR, HCC‐related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months], semiannual [6 months], or quarterly [3 months]) and imaging modalities (ultrasound [US] or magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in various annual incidences (0.2%, 0.4%, or 1.5%). Compared to no surveillance, 6‐month US reduced the 10‐year HCC‐CFR from 77% to 46%. With annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, the model predicted 281, 565, and 2059 fewer HCC‐related deaths, respectively, and 187, 374, and 1356 fewer total deaths per 100,000 screened patients, respectively. Combining alpha‐fetoprotein screening to 6‐month US led to 32, 63, and 230 fewer HCC‐related deaths per 100,000 screened patients for annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6‐month US, 3‐month US reduced cancer‐related mortality by 14%, predicting 61, 123, and 446 fewer HCC‐related deaths per 100,000 screened patients with annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6‐month US, 6‐month MRI (−17%) and 12‐month MRI (−6%) reduced HCC‐related mortality. Compared to 6‐month US, overall mortality reductions ranged from −0.1% to −1.3% when using 3‐month US or MRI. A US surveillance interval of 6 months improves HCC‐related and overall mortality compared to no surveillance. A shorter US interval or using MRI could reduce HCC‐CFR and HCC‐related mortality, with a modest effect on overall mortality.

HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by chronic hepatitis C who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We developed risk stratification algorithms for de novo HCC development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort.

METHODS

We evaluated the occurrence of de novo HCC in a derivation cohort of 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. We validated our results in 1,500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 patients with cACLD (4.6%, 1.45/100 patient-years) vs. 12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100 patient-years, p <0.001) developed de novo HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de novo HCC development during FU than pre-treatment values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP, alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin, accurately predicted de novo HCC development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with/without considering alcohol: 0.893/0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low- (~2/3 of patients) and high-risk (~1/3 of patients) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk: 0% vs. 16.5%) and validation (3.3% vs. 17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin (i.e., without AFP) also showed a robust performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol consumption, accurately stratified patients with cACLD based on their risk of de novo HCC after SVR. Approximately two-thirds were identified as having an HCC risk <1%/year in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC surveillance.

LAY SUMMARY

Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately two-thirds) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.

HIGH VALUES OF LIVER STIFFNESS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN STRATIFYING THE RISK OF HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA IN CIRRHOTIC HEPATITIS C PATIENTS

BACKGROUND

Evaluate the role of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in a prospective cohort of Brazilian hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A cohort of 99 consecutive HCV patients was included between 2011 and 2016 with baseline LSM ≥12 kilopascals (kPa). Baseline variables were evaluated and HCC occurrence was documented. Kaplan-Meier methods with a log-rank test and the use of cox univariate and multivariate analysis assessed the association between variables and clinical results.

RESULTS

The mean age was 57.8±10.6 years. In a follow-up over a mean of 3.3 years, 20 (20.2%) patients developed HCC. In univariate logistic regression analysis, variables associated with HCC occurrence were: lower platelet count (P=0.0446), higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (P=0.0041) and bilirubin (P=0.0008) values, higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (P=0.0068) and higher LSM (P=0.0354). LSM evaluated by TE was independently associated with HCC development, and the best cut-off value for higher HCC risk was >21.1 kPa (HR: 5.548; 95%CI: 1.244-24.766; P=0.025).

CONCLUSION

A high value of liver stiffness relates substantially to an increased risk for HCC occurrence in Brazilian patients with cirrhosis due to HCV.

An MRI-Based Radiomic Model for Individualized Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis

Objective

To develop and validate a radiomic nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HBV cirrhosis patients based on baseline magnetic resonance imaging examinations and clinical data.

Methods

364 patients with HBV cirrhosis from five hospitals were assigned to the training, internal validation, external validation-1 or external validation-2 cohort. All patients underwent baseline magnetic resonance image (MRI) scans and clinical follow-up within three-year time. Clinical risk factors and MRI-based features were extracted and analyzed. The radiomic signatures were built using the radiomics-score (Rad-score) that calculated for each patient as a linear weighted combination of selected MRI-based features. Prognostic performances of the clinical and radiomic nomograms were evaluated with Cox modeling in the training and validation cohorts.

Results

Eighteen features were selected for inclusion in the Rad-score prognostic model. The radiomic signature from multi-sequence MRI yielded a concordance index (C-index) of 0.710, 0.681, 0.632 and 0.658 in the training, internal validation, external validation-1, external validation-2 cohorts, respectively. Sex and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class were the most prognostic clinical risk factors in univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses. The radiomic combined nomogram that integrated the radiomic signature with the clinical factors yielded a C-index of 0.746, 0.710, and 0.641 in the training, internal validation, and external validation-1 cohorts, respectively, which was an improvement over either the clinical nomogram or radiomic signature alone.

Conclusion

We developed an MRI-based radiomic combined nomogram with good discrimination ability for the individualized prediction of HCC in HBV cirrhosis patients within three-year time.

Liver cancer risk-predictive molecular biomarkers specific to clinico-epidemiological contexts

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction is increasingly important because of the low annual HCC incidence in patients with the rapidly emerging non-alcoholic fatty liver disease or cured HCV infection. To date, numerous clinical HCC risk biomarkers and scores have been reported in literature. However, heterogeneity in clinico-epidemiological context, e.g., liver disease etiology, patient race/ethnicity, regional environmental exposure, and lifestyle-related factors, obscure their real clinical utility and applicability. Proper characterization of these factors will help refine HCC risk prediction according to certain clinical context/scenarios and contribute to improved early HCC detection. Molecular factors underlying the clinical heterogeneity encompass various features in host genetics, hepatic and systemic molecular dysregulations, and cross-organ interactions, which may serve as clinical-context-specific biomarkers and/or therapeutic targets. Toward the goal to enable individual-risk-based HCC screening by incorporating the HCC risk biomarkers/scores, their assessment in patient with well-defined clinical context/scenario is critical to gauge their real value and to maximize benefit of the tailored patient management for substantial improvement of the poor HCC prognosis.

Predictive performance and clinical utility of HCC risk scores in chronic hepatitis C: a comparative study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Many HCC risk prediction scores were developed to guide HCC risk stratification and identify CHC patients who either need intensified surveillance or may not require screening. There is a need to compare different scores and their predictive performance in clinical practice. We aim to compare the newest HCC risk scores evaluating their discriminative ability, and clinical utility in a large cohort of CHC patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The performance of the scores was evaluated in 3075 CHC patients who achieved SVR following DAAs using Log rank, Harrell's c statistic, also tested for HCC-risk stratification and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 212 patients within 5 years follow-up. Twelve HCC risk scores were identified and displayed significant Log rank (p ≤ 0.05) except Alonso-Lopez TE-HCC, and Chun scores (p = 0.374, p = 0.053, respectively). Analysis of the remaining ten scores revealed that ADRES, GES pre-post treatment, GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores including dynamics of AFP, were clinically applicable and demonstrated good statistical performance; Log rank analysis < 0.001, Harrell's C statistic (0.66-0.83) and high negative predictive values (94.38-97.65%). In these three scores, the 5 years cumulative IR in low risk groups be very low (0.54-1.6), so screening could be avoided safely in these patients.

CONCLUSION

ADRES, GES (pre- and post-treatment), GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores seem to offer acceptable HCC-risk predictability and clinical utility in CHC patients. The dynamics of AFP as a component of these scores may explain their high performance when compared to other scores.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Viral Hepatitis: Where Do We Stand?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of cancer-related death. Although the burden of alcohol- and NASH-related HCC is growing, chronic viral hepatitis (HBV and HCV) remains a major cause of HCC development worldwide. The pathophysiology of viral-related HCC includes liver inflammation, oxidative stress, and deregulation of cell signaling pathways. HBV is particularly oncogenic because, contrary to HCV, integrates in the cell DNA and persists despite virological suppression by nucleotide analogues. Surveillance by six-month ultrasound is recommended in patients with cirrhosis and in "high-risk" patients with chronic HBV infection. Antiviral therapy reduces the risks of development and recurrence of HCC; however, patients with advanced chronic liver disease remain at risk of HCC despite virological suppression/cure and should therefore continue surveillance. Multiple scores have been developed in patients with chronic hepatitis B to predict the risk of HCC development and may be used to stratify individual patient's risk. In patients with HCV-related liver disease who achieve sustained virological response by direct acting antivirals, there is a strong need for markers/scores to predict long-term risk of HCC. In this review, we discuss the most recent advances regarding viral-related HCC.

Redox state as assessed using the measurement of human non-mercaptalbumin in embryo culture media is associated with successful embryo development in human in vitro fertilization

The role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of various diseases has been attracting attention. We speculated as to whether the redox state of treatment solutions used for various diseases may play a role in treatment success. In the current study, we focused on the human embryo culture medium used for in vitro fertilization (IVF). A total of 173 oocytes from a total of 91 patients treated with IVF were enrolled. The redox state was assessed by measuring the levels of human non-mercaptalbumin (HNA). We analyzed factors related to blastocyst formation on day 5 or 6 after insemination. We also developed a random forest (RF) model for the prediction of blastocyst formation. The variable importance in the predictive model was assessed using the mean decrease in the Gini impurity. Blastocyst formation was observed in 41.04% (71/173) of the oocytes and was associated with a lower %HNA in the culture medium, a younger patient age, and the fertilization method (standard IVF or intracytoplasmic sperm injection). The RF model developed using these factors and 70% of the samples (training set, n = 121) was validated in the remaining testing set (n = 52) and produced an area under the curve of 0.761, where the %HNA in the culture medium was the most important variable for predicting blastocyst formation. In conclusion, lower levels of oxidative stress in embryo culture media were associated with the success of IVF treatment. The redox state of treatment solutions should be considered to support treatment success.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Computed Tomography-Measured Liver Volume Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

AIM

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the significance of liver volume in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 277 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who received dynamic computed tomography (CT) during surveillance.

METHODS

Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase of CT images by using ImageJ software. Liver volume index, a ratio of the standard liver volume expected by weight and height to the measured liver volume, was calculated to adjust for normal variations. The cohort was randomly divided to derivation (n = 100) and validation sets (n = 177) for the generation of a liver volume-based Cox prediction model and validation of a liver volume-based nomogram, respectively.

RESULTS

The liver volume index was independent of weight or height, and it predicted further development of HCC (hazard ratio [HR] 16.30, 95% CI 6.70-39.62; p < 0.001). Liver cirrhosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and liver volume index were independent predictors of HCC, and nomogram-based prediction score from these three parameters identified high-risk patients at the cutoff of 110 in both derivation (p < 0.001) and validation cohort (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies the risk of developing HCC in CHC patients whose initial dynamic CT study gave negative results.

Associations Between Alcohol Use and Liver-Related Outcomes in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis

Alcohol use can cause hepatic necroinflammation and worsening portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate the associations between degree of alcohol use and clinical liver‐related outcomes according to etiology of cirrhosis. In this retrospective cohort analysis, 44,349 U.S. veterans with cirrhosis from alcohol‐associated liver disease (ALD), chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were identified who completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption questionnaire in 2012. Based on this score, level of alcohol use was categorized as none, low level, or unhealthy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess for associations between alcohol use and mortality, cirrhosis decompensation (new ascites, encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). At baseline, 36.4% of patients endorsed alcohol use and 17.1% had unhealthy alcohol use. During a mean 4.9 years of follow‐up, 25,806 (57.9%) patients died, 9,409 (21.4%) developed a new decompensation, and 4,733 (11.1%) developed HCC. In patients with ALD‐cirrhosis and HCV‐cirrhosis, unhealthy alcohol use, compared with no alcohol use, was associated with higher risks of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07‐1.19 and aHR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.08‐1.20, respectively) and decompensation (aHR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07‐1.30 and aHR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00‐1.16, respectively). Alcohol use was not associated with HCC, regardless of cirrhosis etiology. Conclusion: Unhealthy alcohol use was common in patients with cirrhosis and was associated with higher risks of mortality and cirrhosis decompensation in patients with HCV‐cirrhosis and ALD‐cirrhosis. Therefore, health care providers should make every effort to help patients achieve abstinence. The lack of association between alcohol use and HCC merits further investigation.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis: Is it time to personalize it?

Surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein is recommended by clinical practice guidelines for patients who are considered to be at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including those with cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis and special subgroups of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Application of the standard surveillance strategy to all patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis imposes major sustainability and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Thus, a number of HCC risk scores were constructed, mainly from Asian cohorts, to stratify the HCC prediction in patients with CHB. Similarly, even if less than for CHB, a few scoring systems were developed for chronic hepatitis C patients or cirrhotic patients with CLD of different etiologies. Recently, a few newsworthy HCC-risk algorithms were developed for patients with cirrhosis using the combination of serologic HCC markers and clinical parameters. Overall, the HCC risk stratification appears at hand by several validated multiple score systems, but their optimal performance is obtained only in populations who show highly homogenous clinic-pathologic, epidemiologic, etiologic and therapeutic characteristics and this limitation poses a major drawback to their sustainable use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the dynamic process driving the progression from CLD to HCC derived from studies based on molecular approaches and genetics, epigenetics and liquid biopsy will enable the identification of new biomarkers to define the individual risk of HCC in the near future, with the possibility to achieve a real and cost/effective personalization of surveillance.

Evaluation of ethnic influence in the application of a hepatocellular carcinoma predictive model for chronic hepatitis C

Currently, there is no well-established algorithm predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in untreated hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. We aimed to validate an algorithm (risk evaluation of viral load elevation and associated liver disease/HCV [REVEAL-HCV]: age, AST, ALT, HCV RNA, HCV genotype, and cirrhosis) developed in Taiwanese patients. We analyzed 1381 (50.1% White, 14.7% Hispanic, 13.8% Asian of diverse origin, and 7.8% African American) adult treatment-naïve HCV patients (no viral co-infection, no HCC within 6 months) at 4 U.S. and one Hong Kong centers (11/1994-10/2017). Compared to the non-Asian cohort, the Asian cohort had a higher percentage of patients in the low-risk group (46.1% vs. 26.1%) and a lower percentage in the high-risk group (12.0% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.01). Overall, 5-year HCC incidence were 1.75%, 4.71%, and 24.4% for low, medium, and high-risk patients, respectively (p < 0.0001). For the overall cohort, area under receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for HCC prediction were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.93), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.75-0.88), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC risk, respectively. There was a slightly lower AUROC for Asians compared to the non-Asian cohort at 3 years (0.75 vs. 0.83) and 5 years (0.78 vs. 0.84), though this was not statistically significant. In multivariable analysis, we found male sex, presence of metabolic syndrome as well as the risk score categories to be independently associated with HCC but not ethnicity. The REVEAL-HCV risk score has good validity for both Asian and non-Asian populations. Further studies should consider additional factors, such as sex, metabolic syndrome, and treatment status.

We need stronger evidence for (or against) hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance

Current guidelines from EASL recommend that most patients with cirrhosis are offered surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but fewer patients than expected actually receive it. The recommendation is based on observational studies and simulations, not randomised trials. In this opinion piece we argue that a randomised trial of HCC surveillance vs. no surveillance is necessary and feasible, and we believe that clinician and patient participation in HCC surveillance would be better if it were based on trial results demonstrating its value.

HCV Eradication in Primary or Secondary Prevention Optimizes Hepatocellular Carcinoma Curative Management

To assess the impact of HCV eradication on the outcomes of cirrhotic patients treated curatively for incidental hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detected during surveillance program. Data were collected on 1,323 French patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis recruited in 35 centers (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort). Sustained virologic responses (SVR) and the occurrence of HCC were recorded prospectively. During a median follow-up of 68.3 months, 218 patients developed HCC, 126 of whom underwent a curative procedure as first-line therapy (ablation = 95, resection = 31). The HCC BCLC stage was 0/A in 97.5% of patients; 74 (58.7%) never achieved SVR. During a median follow-up of 26.0 months after HCC treatment, 59 (46.8%) experienced HCC recurrence. SVR was not associated with a recurrence, whether considering final SVR status [HR = 0.77; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.43-1.39; P = 0.39] or its time to achievement (prior to/after HCC occurrence; global P = 0.28). During the same timeframe, 46 patients with HCC (36.5%) died (liver failure: 41.9%, HCC progression: 37.2%, extrahepatic causes: 20.9%). Under multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with improved survival [HR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.08-0.52; P = 0.001]. Survival benefit was explained by a lower incidence of liver decompensation and higher rates of sequential HCC re-treatment. Direct antiviral intake was not associated with a higher risk of HCC recurrence, but with improved survival (HR = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.06-0.83; P = 0.024). HCV eradication in primary or secondary prevention optimizes HCC management through preservation of liver function and improves survival, whatever the regimen. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Liver failure is a competing risk of death in patients with HCC eligible for curative procedures. HCV eradication does not decrease risk of HCC recurrence in the first two years, but enables sequential curative HCC treatments through preservation of liver function. Direct-acting antiviral agent intake is not associated with HCC recurrence and improves survival.

Stratification of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Following HCV Eradication or HBV Control

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has dramatically decreased in patients infected with HCV and HBV due to the widespread use of highly effective antiviral agents. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis following HCV clearance of in case of HBV control whatever the stage of fibrosis remains at risk of liver cancer development. Cancer predictors in these virus-free patients include routine parameters estimating coexisting comorbidities, persisting liver inflammation or function impairment, and results of non-invasive tests which can be easily combined into HCC risk scoring systems. The latter enables stratification according to various liver cancer incidences and allocation of patients into low, intermediate or high HCC risk probability groups. All international guidelines endorse lifelong surveillance of these patients using semi-annual ultrasound, with known sensibility issues. Refining HCC prediction in this growing population ultimately will trigger personalized management using more effective surveillance tools such as contrast-enhanced imaging techniques or circulating biomarkers while taking into account cost-effectiveness parameters.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status.

METHODS

Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014).

RESULTS

Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF].

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Clinical and Molecular Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk becomes increasingly important with recently emerging HCC-predisposing conditions, namely non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cured hepatitis C virus infection. These etiologies are accompanied with a relatively low HCC incidence rate (~1% per year or less), while affecting a large patient population. Hepatitis B virus infection remains a major HCC risk factor, but a majority of the patients are now on antiviral therapy, which substantially lowers, but does not eliminate, HCC risk. Thus, it is critically important to identify a small subset of patients who have elevated likelihood of developing HCC, to optimize the allocation of limited HCC screening resources to those who need it most and enable cost-effective early HCC diagnosis to prolong patient survival. To date, numerous clinical-variable-based HCC risk scores have been developed for specific clinical contexts defined by liver disease etiology, severity, and other factors. In parallel, various molecular features have been reported as potential HCC risk biomarkers, utilizing both tissue and body-fluid specimens. Deep-learning-based risk modeling is an emerging strategy. Although none of them has been widely incorporated in clinical care of liver disease patients yet, some have been undergoing the process of validation and clinical development. In this review, these risk scores and biomarker candidates are overviewed, and strategic issues in their validation and clinical translation are discussed.

Risk Factors, Pathogenesis, and Strategies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention: Emphasis on Secondary Prevention and Its Translational Challenges

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated mortality globally. Given the limited therapeutic efficacy in advanced HCC, prevention of HCC carcinogenesis could serve as an effective strategy. Patients with chronic fibrosis due to viral or metabolic etiologies are at a high risk of developing HCC. Primary prevention seeks to eliminate cancer predisposing risk factors while tertiary prevention aims to prevent HCC recurrence. Secondary prevention targets patients with baseline chronic liver disease. Various epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidates for secondary prevention-both etiology-specific and generic prevention strategies-including statins, aspirin, and anti-diabetic drugs. The introduction of multi-cell based omics analysis along with better characterization of the hepatic microenvironment will further facilitate the identification of targets for prevention. In this review, we will summarize HCC risk factors, pathogenesis, and discuss strategies of HCC prevention. We will focus on secondary prevention and also discuss current challenges in translating experimental work into clinical practice.

Nomogram for prediction of the international study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) grade B/C Posthepatectomy liver failure in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients: an external validation and prospective application study

BACKGROUND

To develop a nomogram for predicting the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) grade B/C posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

Patients initially treated with hepatectomy were included. Univariate regression analysis and stochastic forest algorithm were applied to extract the core indicators and reduce redundancy bias. The nomogram was then constructed by using multivariate logistic regression, and validated in internal and external cohorts, and a prospective clinical application.

RESULTS

There were 900, 300 and 387 participants in training, internal and external validation cohorts, with the morbidity of grade B/C PHLF were 13.5, 11.0 and 20.2%, respectively. The nomogram was generated by integrating preoperative total bilirubin, platelet count, prealbumin, aspartate aminotransferase, prothrombin time and standard future liver remnant volume, then achieved good prediction performance in training (AUC = 0.868, 95%CI = 0.836-0.900), internal validation (AUC = 0.868, 95%CI = 0.811-0.926) and external validation cohorts (AUC = 0.820, 95%CI = 0.756-0.861), with well-fitted calibration curves. Negative predictive values were significantly higher than positive predictive values in training cohort (97.6% vs. 33.0%), internal validation cohort (97.4% vs. 25.9%) and external validation cohort (94.3% vs. 41.1%), respectively. Patients who had a nomogram score < 169 or ≧169 were considered to have low or high risk of grade B/C PHLF. Prospective application of the nomogram accurately predicted grade B/C PHLF in clinical practise.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram has a good performance in predicting ISGLS grade B/C PHLF in HBV-related HCC patients and determining appropriate candidates for hepatectomy.

A Comparison of Biannual Two-Phase Low-Dose Liver CT and US for HCC Surveillance in a Group at High Risk of HCC Development

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Biannual ultrasonography (US) is a current recommendation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in a high-risk group. The sensitivity of US, however, has been low in patients with a high risk of developing HCC. We aimed to compare sensitivity for HCC of biannual US and two-phase low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in patients with a high risk of HCC.

METHODS

In this prospective single-arm study, participants with an annual risk of HCC greater than 5% (based on a risk index of ≥2.33) and who did not have a history of HCC were enrolled from November 2014 to July 2016. Participants underwent paired biannual US and two-phase LDCT 1-3 times. Two-phase LDCT included arterial and 3-min delayed phases. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of HCC detection using US and two-phase LDCT were compared using a composite algorithm as a standard of reference.

RESULTS

Of the 139 enrolled participants, 137 underwent both the biannual US and two-phase LDCT at least once and had follow-up images. Among them, 27 cases of HCC (mean size: 14 ± 4 mm) developed in 24 participants over 1.5 years. Two-phase LDCT showed a significantly higher sensitivity (83.3% [20/24] vs. 29.2% [7/24], p < 0.001) and specificity (95.6% [108/113] vs. 87.7% [99/113], p =0.03) than US. A false-positive result was reported in 14 participants at US and 5 participants at two-phase LDCT, resulting in a significantly higher positive predictive value of two-phase LDCT (33.3% [7/21] vs. 80% [20/25], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a risk index ≥2.33 showed a high annual incidence of HCC development in our study, and two-phase LDCT showed significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for HCC detection than US.

Non-invasive fibrosis tests to predict complications in compensated post-hepatitis C cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Markers predicting complications of post-hepatitis C cirrhosis are needed. We asked whether changes in noninvasive markers of fibrosis can predict liver-related complications.

METHODS

This was a case-controlled study using a prospective national cohort (ANRS-CO12-CIRVIR) of 1323 HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis: 97 patients who developed liver-related complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (cases) matched in age, sex and follow-up duration were compared with 257 patients without complications (controls). Actitest/Fibrotest™, Inflameter/Fibrometer™, ELF™ and Fibroscan™ were performed at baseline and yearly. Samples based on Propensity score matching were built and mixed linear models performed. Outcomes in a sustained virological response (SVR) negative population and a SVR-positive population were also described.

RESULTS

At baseline, all characteristics of patients were similar between the groups. All fibrosis tests were statistically higher for cases compared to controls, Fibroscan™ excepted: Fibrotest™: 0.83±0.13 vs. 0.77±0.16; Fibrometer™: 0.93±0.07 vs. 0.90±0.11; ELF™: 11.4±1.0 vs. 11.0±1.2 (P<0.02). The mean follow-up was 5.7±1.9 years. Over a 3-year period, the significant difference in fibrosis marker values between cases and controls remained constant; with a trend toward a decrease in inflammation markers in controls, independent of SVR status.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline noninvasive serum fibrosis and inflammation markers were significantly higher in patients developing a complication than in controls. During the follow-up only inflammatory markers decreased in controls, but not in cases, and thus could potentially be used to predict the occurrence of complications in cirrhotic patients.

Management of patients with pre-therapeutic advanced liver fibrosis following HCV eradication

Patients with HCV-related bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis remain at risk of developing life-threatening complications even after achieving a sustained virological response. Although it is reduced, the risk of liver-related events in these patients justifies their inclusion in surveillance programmes dedicated to the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma and the screening for portal hypertension. Biochemical parameters or non-invasive tests might indicate the potential progression of liver injury despite viral clearance. Specific attention must be focused on the management of comorbidities, while dedicated educational programmes must be encouraged to increase compliance and commitment to surveillance. Better knowledge of the long-term evolution of these patients, who now live longer, is essential to improve risk stratification and refine screening strategies in this growing population.

How to improve HCC surveillance outcomes

Outside of expert centres, surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not well executed. There are deficiencies in every stage of the process. Overcoming these obstacles is the most important method for improving surveillance. However, even if these obstacles were overcome, there would still be room for improvement. Assessing who is at risk of developing HCC remains incompletely validated. At present, risk scores have been developed for different causes of liver disease, but scores developed in different parts of the world for the same disease do not always agree. Furthermore, most scores stratify patients by risk but do not examine what level of risk should trigger surveillance. Which surveillance tools to use remains controversial – schemes have been proposed that use biomarkers alone, ultrasound alone, or a combination of both. However, the requisite level of test sensitivity that would be associated with high cure rates has not been defined, so at this point it is not clear whether surveillance requires both ultrasound and biomarkers, or whether the use of biomarkers alone is sufficient. Finally, surveillance should result in the identification of HCC at a very early stage. Diagnosing these lesions is difficult and optimal algorithms for lesions that are atypical on radiology have yet to be developed. Algorithms for the follow-up of abnormal biomarkers in the absence of ultrasound have also not been developed yet.

Machine-learning Approach for the Development of a Novel Predictive Model for the Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Because of its multifactorial nature, predicting the presence of cancer using a single biomarker is difficult. We aimed to establish a novel machine-learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using real-world data obtained during clinical practice. To establish a predictive model, we developed a machine-learning framework which developed optimized classifiers and their respective hyperparameter, depending on the nature of the data, using a grid-search method. We applied the current framework to 539 and 1043 patients with and without HCC to develop a predictive model for the diagnosis of HCC. Using the optimal hyperparameter, gradient boosting provided the highest predictive accuracy for the presence of HCC (87.34%) and produced an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.940. Using cut-offs of 200 ng/mL for AFP, 40 mAu/mL for DCP, and 15% for AFP-L3, the accuracies of AFP, DCP, and AFP-L3 for predicting HCC were 70.67% (AUC, 0.766), 74.91% (AUC, 0.644), and 71.05% (AUC, 0.683), respectively. A novel predictive model using a machine-learning approach reduced the misclassification rate by about half compared with a single tumor marker. The framework used in the current study can be applied to various kinds of data, thus potentially become a translational mechanism between academic research and clinical practice.

Development and external validation of prognostic nomograms in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a population based study

Background: We attempted to construct and validate novel nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: Models were established using a discovery set (n=10,262) obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified independent risk factors for OS and CSS. Concordance indexes (c-indexes) and calibration plots were used to evaluate model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Our OS nomogram with a c-index of 0.753 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.745–0.761) was based on age, sex, race, marital status, histological grade, TNM stage, tumor size, and surgery performed, and it performed better than TNM stage. Our CSS nomogram had a c-index of 0.748 (95% CI, 0.740–0.756). The calibration curves fit well. DCA showed that the two nomograms provided substantial clinical value. Internal validation produced c-indexes of 0.758 and 0.752 for OS and CSS, respectively, while external validation in the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (SYMH) cohort produced a c-indexes of 0.702 and 0.686 for OS and CSS, respectively.

Conclusions: We have developed nomograms that enable more accurate individualized predictions of OS and CSS to help doctors better formulate individual treatment and follow-up management strategies.

Changing Epidemiology of HCC: How to Screen and Identify Patients at Risk?

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is dependent on the stage of tumor at diagnosis. The earlier the tumor is found, the higher the chances to offer a curative treatment. In order to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma early, patients at risk should be enrolled in a surveillance program. The population at risk is usually defined as patients with cirrhosis. These patients should have twice a year a ultrasonographic examination of the liver. However, more and more patients will develop hepatocellular carcinoma in the context of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease which is tightly linked to obesity and diabetes. In these patients, this approach is jeopardized by the difficulty to perform a sonography of good quality due to the obesity and more importantly by the fact that hepatocellular carcinoma occurs frequently in the context of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease before the cirrhosis. This article reviews the impact of the changing epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma on its screening.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT.

RESULTS

A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

LCR1 and LCR2, two multi-analyte blood tests to assess liver cancer risk in patients without or with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

No blood test has been shown to be effective in the prediction of primary liver cancer in patients without cirrhosis.

AIM

To construct and internally validate two sequential tests for early prediction of liver cancer. These tests enable an algorithm which could improve the performance of the standard surveillance protocol recommended (imaging with or without AFP), limited to patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis in prospectively collected specimens from an ongoing cohort. We designed an early sensitive high-risk test (LCR1) that combined (using Cox model) hepatoprotective proteins (apolipoproteinA1, haptoglobin) with known risk factors (gender, age, gammaglutamyltranspeptidase), and a marker of fibrosis (alpha2-macroglobulin). To increase the specificity, we then combined (LCR2) these components with alpha-fetoprotein.

RESULTS

A total of 9892 patients, 85.9% without cirrhosis, were followed up for 5.9 years [IQR: 4.3-9.4]. LCR1 and LCR2 time-dependent AUROCs were not different in construction and validation randomised subsets. Among 2027 patients with high-LCR1 then high-LCR2, 167 cancers (113 with cirrhosis, 54 without cirrhosis) were detected, that is 12 patients needed to screen one cancer. The negative predictive value was 99.5% (95% CI 99.0-99.7) in the 2026 not screened patients (11 cancers without cirrhosis) higher than the standard surveillance, which detected 113 cancers in 755 patients screened, that is seven patients needed to screen one cancer, but with a lower negative predictive value 98.0% (97.5-98.5; Z = 4.3; P < 0.001) in 3298 not screened patients (42 cancers without cirrhosis).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with chronic liver disease the LCR1 and LCR2 tests identify those with a high risk of liver cancer, including in those without cirrhosis. NCT01927133.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct Antiviral Therapy for HCV in Patients With Cirrhosis Included in Surveillance Programs

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN).

METHODS

Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC.

RESULTS

Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46-1.73; P = .73).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.

Extrahepatic cancers are the leading cause of death in patients achieving hepatitis B virus control or hepatitis C virus eradication

Data on extrahepatic cancers (EHCs) in compensated viral cirrhosis are limited. The objective of the prospective multicenter Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les Hépatites virales CO12 CirVir cohort was to assess the occurrence of all clinical events in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis, including all types of cancer. Patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis, (2) Child-Pugh A, or (3) absence of previous liver complications including primary liver cancer (PLC). Patients were followed up prospectively every 6 months. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to age and gender using 5-year periods. The impact of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients and maintained viral suppression in HBV patients were assessed using time-dependent analysis. A total of 1,671 patients were enrolled between 2006 and 2012 (median age, 54.9 years; men, 67.3%; HCV, 1,323; HBV, 317; HCV-HBV, 31). Metabolic features and excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption were recorded in 15.2%, 36.4%, and 56.4% of cases, respectively. After a median follow-up of 59.7 months, 227 PLCs were diagnosed (5-year cumulative incidence [CumI] 13.4%) and 93 patients developed EHC (14 patients with lymphoid or related tissue cancer and 79 with solid tissue cancer; 5-year EHC CumI, 5.9%). Compared to the general French population, patients were younger at cancer diagnosis, with significantly higher risk of EHC in HCV patients (SMR, 1.31; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64; P = 0.017) and after SVR (SMR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.08-2.22; P = 0.013). EHC was the fourth leading cause of death in the whole cohort and the first in patients with viral control/eradication.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the general French population, HCV cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of EHC and the first cause of death in patients with viral cirrhosis who achieve virological control/eradication. (Hepatology 2018).

Influence of Progenitor-Derived Regeneration Markers on Hepatitis C Virus-Related Cirrhosis Outcome (ANRS CO12 CirVir Cohort)

Progenitor-derived regeneration gives rise to the aberrant expression of biliary markers such as cytokeratin 7 (K7) and epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) in hepatocytes. We aimed to describe the expression of these molecules in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis and to investigate its potential influence on cirrhosis complications. Among patients with Child-Pugh A uncomplicated HCV-related cirrhosis enrolled in the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we selected individuals with a liver biopsy collected within 2 years before inclusion in the study. K7 and EpCAM immunostaining identified intermediate hepatobiliary cells. The influence of biliary marker expres-sion in hepatocytes on decompensation events and the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was studied using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Among the 337 patients eligible for the study (men, 67%; median age, 52 years), 198 (58.8%) had biopsies with K7-positive hepatocytes including extensive staining in 40 (11.9%) and 203 had EpCAM-positive hepatocytes (60.6%). During follow-up (median, 54.2 months), 47 patients (14%) experienced a decompensation event, and HCC was diagnosed in 37 patients (11%). Extensive K7 staining was independently associated with the occurrence of a decompensation event (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-6.89; P = 0.010). EpCAM expression was independently associated with HCC occurrence (HR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.07-5.23; P =0.033) along with age and a low prothrombin ratio.

CONCLUSION

Progenitor-derived regeneration depicted by K7 and EpCAM immunostaining of hepatocytes in liver biopsies of patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis marks a cirrhosis stage more prone to develop complications. (HEPATOLOGY 2018; 68:1534-1548).

Differences in hepatocellular carcinoma risk, predictors and trends over time according to etiology of cirrhosis

Background and aims

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk is high in cirrhosis. We sought to describe differences in HCC risk, predictors and trends over time according to etiology of cirrhosis.

Methods

We identified 116,404 patients with cirrhosis diagnosed between 2001–2014 in the VA healthcare system and determined incident HCC cases occurring from the date of cirrhosis diagnosis until 01/31/2017. Patients were divided by cirrhosis etiology into hepatitis C virus (HCV, n = 52,671), alcoholic liver disease (ALD, n = 35,730), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 17,354), or OTHER (n = 10,649).

Results

During a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, 10,042 new HCC cases were diagnosed. Patients with HCV had >3 times higher incidence of HCC (3.3 per 100 patient-years) than patients with ALD (0.86/100 patient-years), NAFLD (0.90/100 patient-years) or OTHER (1.0/100 patient-years), an association that persisted after adjusting for baseline characteristics. HCC incidence was 1.6 times higher in patients with cirrhosis diagnosed in 2008–2014 (2.47/100 patient-years) than in 2001–2007 (1.55/100 patient-years).

Independent predictors of HCC among all cirrhosis etiologies included: age, male sex, Hispanic ethnicity, high serum alpha fetoprotein, alkaline phosphatase and AST/√ALT ratio and low serum albumin and platelet count. Diabetes was associated with HCC in ALD-cirrhosis and NAFLD-cirrhosis, and BMI in ALD-cirrhosis.

Conclusions

HCC risk is 3 times greater in cirrhotic patients with HCV than ALD or NAFLD. HCC risk continues to increase over time in analyses extending to 2017 in cirrhosis of all etiologies. Multiple readily available risk factors for HCC were identified that were influenced by cirrhosis etiology and could be used to develop HCC risk estimation models.

Compliance With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Guidelines Associated With Increased Lead-Time Adjusted Survival of Patients With Compensated Viral Cirrhosis: A Multi-Center Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC.

METHODS

We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer.

RESULTS

HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.14; P = .0150).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.

Venous invasion by hepatic tumors: imaging appearance and implications for management

Venous invasion by hepatic tumors most commonly occurs with hepatocellular carcinoma and is associated with worse patient prognosis. Imaging plays an important role in the diagnosis of tumor thrombus in the liver. Moreover, differentiating between bland and tumor thrombus in the liver has important diagnostic, staging, therapeutic, and prognostic implications and may require a multimodal imaging approach including ultrasound, computed tomography, and/or magnetic resonance imaging. Treatment of hepatic malignancies with associated tumor thrombus is dependent on tumor type, disease extent within the liver, liver hemodynamics, and underlying liver function. Treatment of such tumors may involve surgical, locoregional and/or systemic therapies. The current review will focus on the imaging characteristics of venous invasion by hepatic tumors. The imaging findings most useful for differentiating hepatic venous tumor thrombus and bland thrombus will be highlighted and demonstrated with imaging examples. Imaging findings with implications for subsequent patient management will be described.

A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: a multicentre prospective cohort study

Liver cirrhotic patients suffer from a seemingly unpredictable risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, an HCC risk score R (0 ≦ R ≦ 1) was derived from commonly tested haematological and biochemical parameters. In the score-derivation Taiwanese cohort (144 cirrhosis versus 48 HCC-remission patients), the score had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61–0.78, P < 0.001). When validated in a Korean cohort (78 cirrhosis versus 23 HCC-remission patients), the AUC was 0.68 (CI, 0.56–0.80, P = 0.009). In a multicentre prospective cohort (478 cirrhotic patients prospectively followed for HCC occurrence), the hazard ratio with respect to R was 2.344 (CI = 1.183–4.646, P = 0.015). The cumulative incidences of HCC at two years after patient enrolment were 9.6% and 1.7% for the high-risk (R ≧ 0.5) and low-risk (R < 0.5) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). At the end of the study, the incidences were 10.9% and 5.0%, respectively (P = 0.012). The majority of HCCs (23/26) in the high-risk group emerged within the first two years of follow-up. In conclusion, an HCC risk score was developed for cirrhotic patients that effectively predicted HCC in a prospective cohort study.

Viral hepatitis and liver cancer

Hepatitis B and C viruses are a global health problem causing acute and chronic infections that can lead to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). These infections are the leading cause for HCC worldwide and are associated with significant mortality, accounting for more than 1.3 million deaths per year. Owing to its high incidence and resistance to treatment, liver cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with HCC representing approximately 90% of all primary liver cancer cases. The majority of viral-associated HCC cases develop in subjects with liver cirrhosis; however, hepatitis B virus infection can promote HCC development without prior end-stage liver disease. Thus, understanding the role of hepatitis B and C viral infections in HCC development is essential for the future design of treatments and therapies for this cancer. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on hepatitis B and C virus hepatocarcinogenesis and highlight direct and indirect risk factors.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human oncogenic viruses’.

Prognostic value of viral eradication for major adverse cardiovascular events in hepatitis C cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

The objective was to examine the role of a sustained virological response (SVR) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with the following criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis; (2) Child-Pugh A; (3) positive viremia; and (4) no prior liver complication, and then prospectively followed. All patients received HCV treatment after inclusion. MACEs included stroke, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death. SVR, defined as negative viremia 12 weeks posttreatment, was considered as a time-dependent covariate, and its effect on MACE occurrence was assessed. The median follow up was 57.5 months, ending in December 2015.

RESULTS

Sixty-two of 878 (7.1%) patients presented a total of 79 MACEs. The main predictive baseline factors of MACEs were Asian ethnic origin, history of MACEs, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, low serum albumin level, high total bilirubin level, and low platelet count. In multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with a decreased risk of MACEs (hazard ratio=0.35, 95% CI 0.09-0.97, P=.044), whereas Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin level remained predictive of MACE occurrence. The 5-year survival rate was 60.1% versus 87.5% in patients who did versus those who did not present a MACE (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis, Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin are independent predictive factors of cardiovascular events, whereas an SVR is associated with a decreased rate of cardiovascular events.

Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

Patients who develop chronic fibrotic liver disease, caused by viral or metabolic aetiologies, are at a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even after complete HCC tumour resection or ablation, the carcinogenic tissue microenvironment in the remnant liver can give rise to recurrent de novo HCC tumours, which progress into incurable, advanced-stage disease in most patients. Thus, early detection and prevention of HCC development is, in principle, the most impactful strategy to improve patient prognosis. However, a "one-size-fits-all" approach to HCC screening for early tumour detection, as recommended by clinical practice guidelines, is utilised in less than 20% of the target population, and the performance of screening modalities, including ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, is suboptimal. Furthermore, optimal screening strategies for emerging at-risk patient populations, such as those with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure, or those with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease remain controversial. New HCC biomarkers and imaging modalities may improve the sensitivity and specificity of HCC detection. Clinical and molecular HCC risk scores will enable precise HCC risk prediction followed by tailoured HCC screening of individual patients, maximising cost-effectiveness and optimising allocation of limited medical resources. Several aetiology-specific and generic HCC chemoprevention strategies are evolving. Epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidate chemoprevention targets and therapies, including statins, anti-diabetic drugs, and selective molecular targeted agents, although their clinical testing has been limited by the lengthy process of cancer development that requires long-term, costly studies. Individual HCC risk prediction is expected to overcome the challenge by enabling personalised chemoprevention, targeting high-risk patients for precision HCC prevention and substantially improving the dismal prognosis of HCC.