Hepatitis C virus cure from direct-acting antivirals and mortality: Are people with and without a history of injection drug use in the same boat? (ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort)

INTRODUCTION

The risk of mortality in people with a history of injection drug use (PHID) is high, as is the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are effective in this population in terms of sustained virological response, it is not known whether PHID benefit as much as people with no history of injection drug use from DAA-related HCV cure in terms of reduced all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Using Cox proportional hazards models based on the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort data (n = 9735), we identified factors associated with all-cause mortality among HCV-infected people. We tested for interaction effects between drug injection status, HCV cure and other explanatory variables.

RESULTS

DAA-related HCV cure was associated with a 66% (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.34 [0.29-0.39]) lower risk of all-cause mortality, irrespective of drug injection status. Detrimental effects of unhealthy alcohol use on mortality were identified in PHID only.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

DAA-related HCV cure led to comparable benefits in terms of reduced mortality in PHID and people with no history of injection drug use. Policies and strategies to enhance DAA uptake among PHID are needed to lower mortality in this population. Clinical trial registration details: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C on cardiovascular diseases and extrahepatic cancers

PURPOSE

The impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on extrahepatic complications in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients remains poorly described. We estimated the association of DAAs with cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers.

METHODS

The prospective ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort was enriched with individual data until December 2018 from the French Health Insurance Database (SNDS). CHC patients were enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in 32 French hepatology centers. A total of 8148 CHC adults were selected. Cardiovascular events (stroke, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, arrhythmias and conduction disorders [ACD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and extrahepatic solid cancers were derived from the SNDS. Associations between DAAs and extrahepatic events were estimated using marginal structural models, with adjustments for clinical confounders.

RESULTS

Analyses of 12 905 person-years of no DAA exposure and 22 326 person-years following DAA exposure showed a decreased risk of PAD after DAA exposure (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.89), a beneficial effect of DAAs on overall cardiovascular outcomes in patients with advanced fibrosis (aHR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79), and an increased risk of ACD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.04-2.04), predominant after the first year following DAA initiation. There was no association between DAAs and extrahepatic cancer risk (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.50-3.03).

CONCLUSIONS

DAAs were not associated with extrahepatic cancer development or reduction. They were associated with a decreased risk of PAD and an increased risk of ACD, supporting long-term cardiac monitoring after DAA therapy.

Performance of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection in the french health insurance claims databases using the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort

The validity of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C virus (HBV or HCV) infection in claims databases has been little explored. The performance of 15 algorithms was evaluated. Data from HBV- or HCV-infected patients enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in French hepatology centres (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort) were individually linked to the French national health insurance system (SNDS). The SNDS covers 99% of the French population and contains healthcare reimbursement data. Performance metrics were calculated by comparing the viral status established by clinicians with those obtained with the algorithms identifying chronic HBV- and HCV-infected patients. A total of 14 751 patients (29% with chronic HBV and 63% with chronic HCV infection) followed-up until December 2018 were selected. Despite good specificity, the algorithms relying on ICD-10 codes performed poorly. By contrast, the multi-criteria algorithms combining ICD-10 codes, antiviral dispensing, laboratory diagnostic tests (HBV DNA or HCV RNA detection and quantification, HCV genotyping), examinations for the assessment of liver fibrosis and long-term disease registrations were the most effective (sensitivity 0.92, 95% CI, 0.91-0.93 and specificity 0.96, 95% CI, 0.95-0.96 for identifying chronic HBV-infected patients; sensitivity 0.94, 95% CI, 0.94-0.94 and specificity 0.85, 95% CI, 0.84-0.86 for identifying chronic HCV-infected patients). In conclusion, the multi-criteria algorithms perform well in identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection and can be used to estimate the magnitude of the public health burden associated with hepatitis B and C in France.

Integrating genetic variants into clinical models for hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification.

METHODS

Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt-β-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves.

RESULTS

Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 [n = 627, 5.4%], Group 2 [n = 276, 10.7%], and Group 3 [n = 242, 15.3%]; p <0.001). The multivariate model identified age, male sex, diabetes, platelet count, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, albuminemia and the GRS as independent risk factors. The clinical model performance for 5-year HCC prediction was similar to that of the aMAP score (C-Index 0.769). The addition of the GRS to both scores modestly improved their performance (C-Indices of 0.786 and 0.783, respectively). This finding was confirmed by decision curve analyses showing only fair clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified into HCC risk classes by variants affecting lipid turnover and the Wnt-β-catenin pathway. The incorporation of this genetic information modestly improves the performance of clinical scores.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The identification of patients at higher risk of developing liver cancer is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance. Risk assessment can be achieved by combining several clinical and biological parameters used in routine practice. The addition of patients' genetic characteristics can modestly improve this prediction and will ultimately pave the way for precision medicine in patients eligible for HCC surveillance, allowing physicians to trigger personalised screening strategies.

Cannabis use as a factor of lower corpulence in hepatitis C-infected patients: results from the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort

Background

Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at greater risk of developing metabolic disorders. Obesity is a major risk factor for these disorders, and therefore, managing body weight is crucial. Cannabis use, which is common in these patients, has been associated with lower corpulence in various populations. However, this relationship has not yet been studied in persons with chronic HCV infection.

Methods

Using baseline data from the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we used binary logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to test for an inverse relationship between cannabis use (former/current) and (i) central obesity (i.e., large waist circumference) and (ii) overweight and obesity (i.e., elevated body mass index (BMI)) in patients from the cohort who had chronic HCV infection. We also tested for relationships between cannabis use and both waist circumference and BMI as continuous variables, using linear regression models.

Results

Among the 6348 participants in the study population, 55% had central obesity, 13.7% had obesity according to their BMI, and 12.4% were current cannabis users. After multivariable adjustment, current cannabis use was associated with lower risk of central obesity (adjusted odds ratio, aOR [95% confidence interval, CI]: 0.45 [0.37–0.55]), BMI-based obesity (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) [95% CI]: 0.27 [0.19–0.39]), and overweight (aRRR [95% CI]: 0.47 [0.38–0.59]). This was also true for former use, but to a lesser extent. Former and current cannabis use were inversely associated with waist circumference and BMI.

Conclusions

We found that former and, to a greater extent, current cannabis use were consistently associated with smaller waist circumference, lower BMI, and lower risks of overweight, obesity, and central obesity in patients with chronic HCV infection. Longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these relationships and to assess the effect of cannabis use on corpulence and liver outcomes after HCV cure.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01953458.

HCV eradication does not protect from fibrosis progression in patients with fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis after liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) may recur after liver transplantation (LT) in the severe form of fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis (FCH). The prognosis dramatically improved by the use of direct acting antivirals (DAAs). The aim of the present study was to describe the change in histological features of FCH after virological eradication.

METHODS

From the ANRS CUPILT cohort we included 17 patients who presented FCH and at least two graft biopsies, one before DAA-treatment and one after. A single expert pathologist, blinded for clinical outcome, retrospectively confirmed the diagnosis of FCH and progression of fibrosis.

RESULTS

Diagnosis of FCH was made after a median [IQR] 6.0 [3.1-11.8] months after LT, and the median interval between diagnosis and onset of treatment was 1.2 [0.7-6.1] months. The rate of viral eradication was 94.1%. The median delay between the pre-treatment and the treatment biopsies was 12.5 [11.1-20.0] months. Between the end of treatment and the second biopsy, the delay was 5.3 [0.6-7.4] months. Fibrosis stage worsened in 10 patients (58.8%); 6 patients had cirrhosis (35.3%). Chronic rejection appeared in 4 (23.5%) patients.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that, despite viral eradication in patients presenting FCH after LT, fibrosis progression was observed in half of patients. This should encourage monitoring fibrosis progression despite HCV cure.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after sustained virologic response

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) after direct acting antivirals (DAAs) remains challenging.

METHODS

Among HCC-free HCV patients with advanced fibrosis enrolled in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort who achieved SVR 12 weeks after treatment with DAAs, HCC predictive models were developed using Cox multivariable regression. The derived score was externally validated in a large Egyptian cohort. Our main outcome was the HCC-free survival.

RESULTS

During follow-up (median 3.05 years), 153 out of 3531 patients developed a HCC. Main variables associated with HCC occurrence were: male gender, HCV genotype 3, esophageal varices, albumin < 40 g/L, total bilirubin >11 µmol/L and hypercholesterolemia before DAA initiation, together with age > 58 years, FIB-4 index ≥3.25 evaluated at SVR. A score was established allowing the stratification of patients by high (score ≥ 12/22), intermediate (7 ≤ score <12) and low risk of HCC (score < 7/22) with 3-yrs HCC incidence of 18.96%, 5.50% and 1.65%, respectively. The integrated time-dependent area under the ROC curve (i-AUC) was 0.76 in our patients and 0.61 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The externally validated HEPATHER HCC score has good short-term predictive performance in HCV- patients who achieved SVR12 after DAAs allowing to identify high-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be cost-effective and low-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be superfluous in the first 3 years after SVR.

Severe liver fibrosis in the HCV cure era: major effects of social vulnerability, diabetes, and unhealthy behaviors

Background & Aims

After HCV cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. We explored the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on liver fibrosis, before and after HCV cure with direct-acting antivirals.

Methods

We analyzed data from the ongoing ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort, which prospectively collects clinical and socio-behavioral data on HCV-infected patients. Mixed-effects logistic regression models helped identify predictors of longitudinal measures of severe liver fibrosis, defined as a fibrosis-4 index >3.25. We also estimated the adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors.

Results

Among the 9,692 study patients (accounting for 24,687 visits over 4 years of follow-up, 48.5% of which were post-HCV cure), 26% had severe fibrosis at enrolment. After multivariable adjustment, HCV-cured patients had an 87% lower risk of severe fibrosis. An inverse dose-response relationship was found for coffee consumption, with the risk of severe fibrosis diminishing by 58% per additional cup/day (adjusted odds ratio (aOR 0.42; 95% CI 0.38-0.46). Unemployment, low educational level, and diabetes were associated with a higher severe fibrosis risk (aOR 1.69; 95% CI 1.32-2.16, aOR 1.50; 95% CI 1.20-1.86, and aOR 4.27; 95% CI 3.15-5.77, respectively). Severe fibrosis risk was 3.6/4.6-fold higher in individuals with previous/current unhealthy alcohol use than in abstinent patients. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. The risk factors accounting for the greatest severe fibrosis burden were unemployment, low education level, and diabetes (PAFs: 29%, 21%, and 17%, respectively).

Conclusions

Monitoring liver fibrosis after HCV cure is crucial for patients with low socioeconomic status, previous/current unhealthy alcohol use, and diabetes. Innovative HCV care models for the most socially vulnerable individuals and interventions for healthier lifestyles are needed to reinforce the positive effects of HCV cure on liver health.

Lay summary

After hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. Herein, we studied the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on the risk of severe liver fibrosis. Coffee consumption was strongly inversely associated with severe fibrosis, while diabetes, previous and current unhealthy alcohol use were associated with a 4.3-, 3.6- and 4.6-fold higher risk of severe fibrosis, respectively. Unemployment and low educational level were also associated with a higher risk of severe fibrosis. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. These results demonstrate the need to continue liver fibrosis monitoring in at-risk groups, and to facilitate healthier lifestyles after HCV cure as a clinical and public health priority.

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Liver fibrosis assessment is a key prognostic tool in the hepatitis C cure era.

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Significant liver fibrosis regression does not always occur after hepatitis C cure.

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Coffee intake displays protective effects on severe fibrosis even after HCV cure.

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Social vulnerability, diabetes, and unhealthy alcohol use predict severe fibrosis.

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Socio-behavioral factors are associated with severe fibrosis even after HCV cure.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis

Background

In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort.

Methods

We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits.

Results

559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7–51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24–0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08–0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17–0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05–0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.93, p = 0.03).

Conclusion

Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07076-0.

Early hepatocellular carcinoma detection using magnetic resonance imaging is cost-effective in high-risk patients with cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Reinforced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could increase early tumour detection but faces cost-effectiveness issues. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of MRI for the detection of very early HCC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC] 0) in patients with an annual HCC risk >3%.

Methods

French patients with compensated cirrhosis included in 4 multicentre prospective cohorts were considered. A scoring system was constructed to identify patients with an annual risk >3%. Using a Markov model, the economic evaluation estimated the costs and life years (LYs) gained with MRI vs. ultrasound (US) monitoring over a 20-year period. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated by dividing the incremental costs by the incremental LYs.

Results

Among 2,513 patients with non-viral causes of cirrhosis (n = 840) and/or cured HCV (n = 1,489)/controlled HBV infection (n = 184), 206 cases of HCC were detected after a 37-month follow-up. When applied to training (n = 1,658) and validation (n = 855) sets, the construction of a scoring system identified 33.4% and 37.5% of patients with an annual HCC risk >3% (3-year C-Indexes 75 and 76, respectively). In patients with a 3% annual risk, the incremental LY gained with MRI was 0.4 for an additional cost of €6,134, resulting in an ICER of €15,447 per LY. Compared to US monitoring, MRI detected 5x more BCLC 0 HCC. The deterministic sensitivity analysis confirmed the impact of HCC incidence. At a willingness to pay of €50,000/LY, MRI screening had a 100% probability of being cost-effective.

Conclusions

In the era of HCV eradication/HBV control, patients with annual HCC risk >3% represent one-third of French patients with cirrhosis. MRI is cost-effective in this population and could favour early HCC detection.

Lay summary

The early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis is important to improve patient outcomes. Magnetic resonance imaging could increase early tumour detection but is more expensive and less accessible than ultrasound (the standard modality for surveillance). Herein, using a simple score, we identified a subgroup of patients with cirrhosis (accounting for >one-third), who were at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and for whom the increased expense of magnetic resonance imaging would be justified by the potential improvement in outcomes.

HCV Eradication in Primary or Secondary Prevention Optimizes Hepatocellular Carcinoma Curative Management

To assess the impact of HCV eradication on the outcomes of cirrhotic patients treated curatively for incidental hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detected during surveillance program. Data were collected on 1,323 French patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis recruited in 35 centers (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort). Sustained virologic responses (SVR) and the occurrence of HCC were recorded prospectively. During a median follow-up of 68.3 months, 218 patients developed HCC, 126 of whom underwent a curative procedure as first-line therapy (ablation = 95, resection = 31). The HCC BCLC stage was 0/A in 97.5% of patients; 74 (58.7%) never achieved SVR. During a median follow-up of 26.0 months after HCC treatment, 59 (46.8%) experienced HCC recurrence. SVR was not associated with a recurrence, whether considering final SVR status [HR = 0.77; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.43-1.39; P = 0.39] or its time to achievement (prior to/after HCC occurrence; global P = 0.28). During the same timeframe, 46 patients with HCC (36.5%) died (liver failure: 41.9%, HCC progression: 37.2%, extrahepatic causes: 20.9%). Under multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with improved survival [HR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.08-0.52; P = 0.001]. Survival benefit was explained by a lower incidence of liver decompensation and higher rates of sequential HCC re-treatment. Direct antiviral intake was not associated with a higher risk of HCC recurrence, but with improved survival (HR = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.06-0.83; P = 0.024). HCV eradication in primary or secondary prevention optimizes HCC management through preservation of liver function and improves survival, whatever the regimen. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Liver failure is a competing risk of death in patients with HCC eligible for curative procedures. HCV eradication does not decrease risk of HCC recurrence in the first two years, but enables sequential curative HCC treatments through preservation of liver function. Direct-acting antiviral agent intake is not associated with HCC recurrence and improves survival.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status.

METHODS

Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014).

RESULTS

Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF].

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Non-invasive fibrosis tests to predict complications in compensated post-hepatitis C cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Markers predicting complications of post-hepatitis C cirrhosis are needed. We asked whether changes in noninvasive markers of fibrosis can predict liver-related complications.

METHODS

This was a case-controlled study using a prospective national cohort (ANRS-CO12-CIRVIR) of 1323 HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis: 97 patients who developed liver-related complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (cases) matched in age, sex and follow-up duration were compared with 257 patients without complications (controls). Actitest/Fibrotest™, Inflameter/Fibrometer™, ELF™ and Fibroscan™ were performed at baseline and yearly. Samples based on Propensity score matching were built and mixed linear models performed. Outcomes in a sustained virological response (SVR) negative population and a SVR-positive population were also described.

RESULTS

At baseline, all characteristics of patients were similar between the groups. All fibrosis tests were statistically higher for cases compared to controls, Fibroscan™ excepted: Fibrotest™: 0.83±0.13 vs. 0.77±0.16; Fibrometer™: 0.93±0.07 vs. 0.90±0.11; ELF™: 11.4±1.0 vs. 11.0±1.2 (P<0.02). The mean follow-up was 5.7±1.9 years. Over a 3-year period, the significant difference in fibrosis marker values between cases and controls remained constant; with a trend toward a decrease in inflammation markers in controls, independent of SVR status.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline noninvasive serum fibrosis and inflammation markers were significantly higher in patients developing a complication than in controls. During the follow-up only inflammatory markers decreased in controls, but not in cases, and thus could potentially be used to predict the occurrence of complications in cirrhotic patients.

Comparison of the effect of direct-acting antiviral with and without ribavirin on cyclosporine and tacrolimus clearance values: results from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort

PURPOSE

Direct-acting antiviral agents have demonstrated their efficacy in treating HCV recurrence after liver transplantation and particularly the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir combination. Pharmacokinetic data on both calcineurin inhibitors and direct-acting antiviral exposure in liver transplant recipients remain sparse.

METHODS

Patients were enrolled from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort. All patients treated with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin were included in this study when blood samples were available to estimate the clearance of immunosuppressive therapy before direct-acting antiviral initiation and during follow-up. Apparent tacrolimus and cyclosporine clearances were estimated from trough concentrations measured using validated quality control assays.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven mainly male patients (79%) were included, with a mean age of 57 years and mean MELD score of 8.2; 50 were on tacrolimus, 17 on cyclosporine. Ribavirin was combined with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir in 52% of patients. Cyclosporine clearance remained unchanged as well as tacrolimus clearance under the ribavirin-free regimen. Tacrolimus clearance increased 4 weeks after direct-acting antivirals and ribavirin initiation versus baseline (geometric mean ratio 1.81; 90% CI 1.30-2.52). Patients under ribavirin had a significantly higher fibrosis stage (> 2) (p = 0.02) and lower haemoglobin during direct-acting antiviral treatment (p = 0.02) which impacted tacrolimus measurements. Direct-acting antiviral exposure was within the expected range.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that liver transplant patients with a recurrence of hepatitis C who are initiating ribavirin combined with a sofosbuvir-daclatasvir direct-acting antiviral regimen may be at risk of lower tacrolimus concentrations because of probable ribavirin-induced anaemia and higher fibrosis score, although there are no effects on cyclosporine levels.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01944527.

Non-virological factors are drivers of hepatocellular carcinoma in virosuppressed hepatitis B cirrhosis: Results of ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mainly in Asian patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aimed to decipher the environmental and virological factors associated with HCC occurrence and validate risk scoring systems in a French multicentre prospective cohort of HBV cirrhotic patients. Patients with biopsy-proven Child-Pugh A viral cirrhosis included in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort who were HBsAg(+) without hepatitis C coinfection were selected for: (a) interview through a standardized questionnaire reporting coffee consumption and HCC familial history; (b) HBsAg quantification using baseline and sequential 2-year frozen sera; (c) baseline HBV genotype determination; and (d) assessment of risk factors and applicability of HCC risk scores (Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models). Among 317 patients studied (261 men, median age 53 years, past or ongoing antiviral treatment 93.3% and baseline detectable HBV DNA in 88 patients), the baseline and 2-year median HBsAg levels were 810 and 463 IU/mL, respectively. After a median follow-up of 65.2 months, 27 HCC cases were diagnosed (annual incidence: 1.6%). Three factors were independently associated with HCC occurrence: age > 50 years, platelets ≤ 150 × 10³ /mm³ and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m² . Two out of five risk scores were validated, and the most accurate was PAGE-B at 1 year. Moreover, HCC in patients without maintained virological suppression seems more aggressive and less accessible to curative treatment. In conclusion, in French patients with HBV cirrhosis mostly virally suppressed, independent HCC risk factors were host-related (age, obesity) or linked to the severity of cirrhosis (thrombopenia), and the European PAGE-B score was the most accurate risk score.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT.

RESULTS

A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct Antiviral Therapy for HCV in Patients With Cirrhosis Included in Surveillance Programs

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN).

METHODS

Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC.

RESULTS

Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46-1.73; P = .73).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.

Extrahepatic cancers are the leading cause of death in patients achieving hepatitis B virus control or hepatitis C virus eradication

Data on extrahepatic cancers (EHCs) in compensated viral cirrhosis are limited. The objective of the prospective multicenter Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les Hépatites virales CO12 CirVir cohort was to assess the occurrence of all clinical events in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis, including all types of cancer. Patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis, (2) Child-Pugh A, or (3) absence of previous liver complications including primary liver cancer (PLC). Patients were followed up prospectively every 6 months. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to age and gender using 5-year periods. The impact of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients and maintained viral suppression in HBV patients were assessed using time-dependent analysis. A total of 1,671 patients were enrolled between 2006 and 2012 (median age, 54.9 years; men, 67.3%; HCV, 1,323; HBV, 317; HCV-HBV, 31). Metabolic features and excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption were recorded in 15.2%, 36.4%, and 56.4% of cases, respectively. After a median follow-up of 59.7 months, 227 PLCs were diagnosed (5-year cumulative incidence [CumI] 13.4%) and 93 patients developed EHC (14 patients with lymphoid or related tissue cancer and 79 with solid tissue cancer; 5-year EHC CumI, 5.9%). Compared to the general French population, patients were younger at cancer diagnosis, with significantly higher risk of EHC in HCV patients (SMR, 1.31; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64; P = 0.017) and after SVR (SMR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.08-2.22; P = 0.013). EHC was the fourth leading cause of death in the whole cohort and the first in patients with viral control/eradication.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the general French population, HCV cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of EHC and the first cause of death in patients with viral cirrhosis who achieve virological control/eradication. (Hepatology 2018).

Influence of Progenitor-Derived Regeneration Markers on Hepatitis C Virus-Related Cirrhosis Outcome (ANRS CO12 CirVir Cohort)

Progenitor-derived regeneration gives rise to the aberrant expression of biliary markers such as cytokeratin 7 (K7) and epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) in hepatocytes. We aimed to describe the expression of these molecules in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis and to investigate its potential influence on cirrhosis complications. Among patients with Child-Pugh A uncomplicated HCV-related cirrhosis enrolled in the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we selected individuals with a liver biopsy collected within 2 years before inclusion in the study. K7 and EpCAM immunostaining identified intermediate hepatobiliary cells. The influence of biliary marker expres-sion in hepatocytes on decompensation events and the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was studied using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Among the 337 patients eligible for the study (men, 67%; median age, 52 years), 198 (58.8%) had biopsies with K7-positive hepatocytes including extensive staining in 40 (11.9%) and 203 had EpCAM-positive hepatocytes (60.6%). During follow-up (median, 54.2 months), 47 patients (14%) experienced a decompensation event, and HCC was diagnosed in 37 patients (11%). Extensive K7 staining was independently associated with the occurrence of a decompensation event (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-6.89; P = 0.010). EpCAM expression was independently associated with HCC occurrence (HR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.07-5.23; P =0.033) along with age and a low prothrombin ratio.

CONCLUSION

Progenitor-derived regeneration depicted by K7 and EpCAM immunostaining of hepatocytes in liver biopsies of patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis marks a cirrhosis stage more prone to develop complications. (HEPATOLOGY 2018; 68:1534-1548).

12 Weeks of a Ribavirin-Free Sofosbuvir and Nonstructural Protein 5A Inhibitor Regimen Is Enough to Treat Recurrence of Hepatitis C After Liver Transplantation

Sofosbuvir (SOF) combined with nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) inhibitors has demonstrated its efficacy in treating a recurrence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) after liver transplantation (LT). However, the duration of treatment and need for ribavirin (RBV) remain unclear in this population. Our aim was to determine whether LT recipients could be treated with an SOF + NS5A inhibitor-based regimen without RBV for 12 weeks post-LT. Between October 2013 and December 2015, 699 LT recipients experiencing an HCV recurrence were enrolled in the multicenter ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort. We selected patients receiving SOF and NS5A inhibitor ± RBV and followed for at least 12 weeks after treatment discontinuation. The primary efficacy endpoint was a sustained virological response 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Among these 699 patients, 512 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Their main characteristics were: 70.1% genotype 1, 18.2% genotype 3, 21.1% cirrhosis, and 34.4% previously treated patients. We identified four groups of patients according to their treatment and duration: SOF + NS5A without RBV for 12 (156 patients) or 24 (239 patients) weeks; SOF + NS5A + RBV for 12 (47 patients) or 24 (70 patients) weeks. SVR12 values reached 94.9%, 97.9%, 95.7%, and 92.9%, respectively (P = 0.14). Only 20 patients experienced a treatment failure. Under multivariate analysis, factors such as fibrosis stage, previous treatment, HCV genotype, and baseline HCV viral load did not influence SVR12 rates in the four groups (P = 0.21). Hematological adverse events (AEs) were more common in the RBV group: anemia (P < 0.0001) and blood transfusion (P = 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

SOF + NS5A inhibitors without RBV for 12 weeks constituted reliable therapy for recurrent HCV post-LT with an excellent SVR12 whatever the fibrosis stage, HCV genotype, and previous HCV treatment. (Hepatology 2018; 00:000-000).

Compliance With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Guidelines Associated With Increased Lead-Time Adjusted Survival of Patients With Compensated Viral Cirrhosis: A Multi-Center Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC.

METHODS

We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer.

RESULTS

HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.14; P = .0150).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.

Safety of sofosbuvir-based regimens after liver transplantation: longitudinal assessment of renal function in the prospective ANRS CO23 CUPILT study

BACKGROUND

In liver transplant recipients with hepatitis C virus recurrence, there is concern about renal safety of sofosbuvir-based regimens. Changes in serum creatinine or in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) under treatment are used to look for possible renal toxicity. However, serum creatinine and eGFR are highly variable.

AIM

To analyse renal function trajectory with numerous assays of serum creatinine over a long period of time.

METHODS

In a multicentre cohort of 139 patients, the eGFR was obtained from serum creatinine using the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. Slopes of eGFR were defined as a change in eGFR during a period divided by time. Pre-treatment, on-treatment and post-treatment periods were 9 months, 3-9 months and 4.5 months. Interactions between eGFR slopes and the pre-treatment eGFR, use of ribavirin or mycophenolate mofetil, and stage of fibrosis were addressed. On-treatment eGFR slopes were separated in tertiles. Pre- and post-treatment eGFR slopes were compared globally and according to tertiles.

RESULTS

The post-treatment eGFR slope was significantly better than pre-treatment eGFR slope (+0.18 (IQR -0.76 to +1.32) vs -0.11 (IQR -1.01 to +0.73) mL/min/1.73 m² /month, P = 0.03) independently of the pre-treatment eGFR (P = 0.99), ribavirin administration (P = 0.26), mycophenolate mofetil administration (P = 0.51) and stage of fibrosis (F3 and F4 vs lower stages, P = 0.18; F4 vs lower stages, P = 0.08; F4 Child-Pugh B and C vs lower stages, P = 0.38). Tertiles of on-treatment eGFR slopes were -1.71 (IQR -2.54 to -1.48), -0.78 (IQR -1.03 to -0.36) and +0.75 (IQR +0.28 to +1.47) mL/min/1.73 m² /month. Pre- and post-treatment eGFR slopes were not significantly different according to tertiles (respectively, P = 0.34, 0.08, 0.73).

CONCLUSION

The eGFR varies during treatment and gives a confusing picture of the renal safety of sofosbuvir-based regimens. In contrast, longitudinal assessment of the eGFR shows a rising trajectory over longer time, meaning that these therapies are safe for the kidneys in our cohort of liver transplant recipients.

Prognostic value of viral eradication for major adverse cardiovascular events in hepatitis C cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

The objective was to examine the role of a sustained virological response (SVR) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with the following criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis; (2) Child-Pugh A; (3) positive viremia; and (4) no prior liver complication, and then prospectively followed. All patients received HCV treatment after inclusion. MACEs included stroke, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death. SVR, defined as negative viremia 12 weeks posttreatment, was considered as a time-dependent covariate, and its effect on MACE occurrence was assessed. The median follow up was 57.5 months, ending in December 2015.

RESULTS

Sixty-two of 878 (7.1%) patients presented a total of 79 MACEs. The main predictive baseline factors of MACEs were Asian ethnic origin, history of MACEs, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, low serum albumin level, high total bilirubin level, and low platelet count. In multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with a decreased risk of MACEs (hazard ratio=0.35, 95% CI 0.09-0.97, P=.044), whereas Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin level remained predictive of MACE occurrence. The 5-year survival rate was 60.1% versus 87.5% in patients who did versus those who did not present a MACE (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis, Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin are independent predictive factors of cardiovascular events, whereas an SVR is associated with a decreased rate of cardiovascular events.

Early detection and curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: A cost-effectiveness analysis in France and in the United States

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Patients outside clinical trials seldom benefit from evidence-based monitoring. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of complying with HCC screening guidelines. The economic evaluation compared surveillance of patients with cirrhosis as recommended by the guidelines ("gold-standard monitoring") to "real-life monitoring" from the health care system perspective. A Markov model described the history of the disease and treatment course including current first-line curative treatment: liver resection, radiofrequency ablation (RFA), and liver transplantation. Transition probabilities were derived mainly from two French cohorts, CIRVIR and CHANGH. Costs were computed using French and U.S. tariffs. Effectiveness was measured in life years gained (LYG). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for a 10-year horizon and tested with one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The cost difference between the two groups was $648 ($87,476 in the gold-standard monitoring group vs. $86,829 in the real-life monitoring group) in France and $11,965 ($93,795 vs. $81,829) in the United States. Survival increased by 0.37 years (7.18 vs. 6.81 years). The ICER was $1,754 per LYG in France and $32,415 per LYG in the United States. The health gain resulted from earlier diagnosis and access to first-line curative treatments, among which RFA provided the best value for money.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that gold-standard monitoring for patients with cirrhosis is cost-effective, attributed to a higher probability of benefiting from a curative treatment and so a higher survival probability. (Hepatology 2017;65:1237-1248).

Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis Reduces Risk of Liver and Non-Liver Complications

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We performed a prospective study to investigate the effects of a sustained viral response (SVR) on outcomes of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We collected data from 1323 patients included in the prospective Agence Nationale pour la Recherche sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales (ANRS) viral cirrhosis (CirVir) cohort, recruited from 35 clinical centers in France from 2006 through 2012. All patients had HCV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, were Child-Pugh class A, and had no prior liver complications. All patients received anti-HCV treatment before or after inclusion (with interferon then with direct antiviral agents) and underwent an ultrasound examination every 6 months, as well as endoscopic evaluations. SVR was considered as a time-dependent covariate; its effect on outcome was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard regression method. We used a propensity score to minimize confounding by indication of treatment and capacity to achieve SVR.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 668 patients (50.5%) achieved SVR. SVR was associated with a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR] compared with patients without an SVR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.43; P < .001) and hepatic decompensation (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.17-0.39; P < .001). Patients with SVRs also had a lower risk of cardiovascular events (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.69; P = .001) and bacterial infections (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.68; P < .001). Metabolic features were associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with SVRs, but not in patients with viremia. SVR affected overall mortality (HR, 0.27 compared with patients without SVR; 95% CI, 0.18-0.42; P < .001) and death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. Similar results were obtained in a propensity score-matched population.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed a reduction in critical events, liver-related or not, in a prospective study of patients with HCV infection and compensated cirrhosis included in the CirVir cohort who achieved an SVR. We found an SVR to reduce overall mortality and risk of death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. A longer follow-up evaluation is required to accurately describe and assess specific risk factors for complications in this population.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir)

The aim of this work was to develop an individualized score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C (HCV)-compensated cirrhosis. Among 1,323 patients with HCV cirrhosis enrolled in the French prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, 720 and 360 were randomly assigned to training and validation sets, respectively. Cox's multivariate model was used to predict HCC, after which a nomogram was computed to assess individualized risk. During follow-up (median, 51.0 months), 103 and 39 patients developed HCC in the training and validation sets, respectively. Five variables were independently associated with occurrence of HCC: age > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16; 3.25; P = 0.012); past excessive alcohol intake (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02; 2.36; P = 0.041); low platelet count (<100 Giga/mm(3) : HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.62; 4.51; P < 0.001; [100; 150] Giga/mm(3) : HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10; 3.18; P = 0.021); gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase above the upper limit of normal (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.11; 3.47; P = 0.021); and absence of a sustained virological response during follow-up (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.67; 5.48; P < 0.001). An 11-point risk score was derived from the training cohort and validated in the validation set. Based on this score, the population was stratified into three groups, in which HCC development gradually increased, from 0% to 30.1% at 5 years for patients with the lowest (≤3) and highest (≥8) scores (P < 0.001). Using this score, a nomogram was built enabling individualized prediction of HCC occurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years.

CONCLUSION

This HCC score can accurately predict HCC at an individual level in French patients with HCV cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1136-1147).

Impact of IL28B, APOH and ITPA Polymorphisms on Efficacy and Safety of TVR- or BOC-Based Triple Therapy in Treatment-Experienced HCV-1 Patients with Compensated Cirrhosis from the ANRS CO20-CUPIC Study

BACKGROUND

Human genetic factors influence the outcome of pegylated interferon and ribavirin hepatitis C therapy. We explored the role of IL28B, APOH and ITPA SNPs on the outcomes of triple therapy including telaprevir or boceprevir in patients with compensated cirrhosis chronically infected with HCV-1.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 256 HCV-1 Caucasian treatment-experienced patients with compensated cirrhosis from the ANRS CO20-CUPIC cohort were genotyped for a total of 10 candidate SNPs in IL28B (rs12979860 and rs368234815), APOH (rs8178822, rs12944940, rs10048158, rs52797880, rs1801689 and rs1801690) and ITPA (rs1127354 and rs7270101). We tested the association of IL28B and APOH SNPs with sustained virological response and of ITPA SNPs with anemia related phenotypes by means of logistic regression assuming an additive genetic model.

RESULTS

None of the six APOH SNPs were associated with sustained virological response. The favorable alleles of the IL28B SNPs rs12979860 and rs368234815 were associated with sustained virological response (rs12979860: OR = 2.35[1.50-3.70], P = 2x10(-4)). Refined analysis showed that the effect of IL28B SNPs on sustained virological response was restricted to prior PegIFN/RBV relapse (OR = 3.80[1.82-8.92], P = 8x10(-4)). We also confirmed the association between ITPA low activity alleles and protection against early hemoglobin decline in triple therapy (P = 2x10(-5)).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the screening of rs12979860 may remain interesting for decision making in prior relapse HCV-1 Caucasian patients with compensated cirrhosis eligible for a telaprevir- or boceprevir-based therapy.