Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica

The association of the STarT Back Screening Tool and type of leg pain with low back pain disability trajectories: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiple factors influence the recovery process of low back pain (LBP). The identification and increased knowledge of prognostic factors might contribute to a better understanding of the course of LBP. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of the STarT Back Screening Tool (SBST) risk score and the type of leg pain (non-radiating LBP, referred non-radicular, and radicular radiating leg pain) with the disability trajectory (at baseline, the slope, and recovery at one year) in adults with low back pain.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study in 347 patients with low back pain who sought physiotherapy care at three primary care practices in the Netherlands. Linear mixed models were estimated to describe the association of the SBST risk score and the type of leg pain with disability at baseline, the slope in the disability trajectory, and at twelve months follow-up.

RESULTS

A medium/high risk score on the SBST is associated with higher baseline disability scores on the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), faster initial recovery, and still a higher disability ODI score at 12 months follow-up. Non-radicular referred and radicular radiating leg pain were associated with worse baseline disability ODI scores in LBP. This association was not present for the initial recovery or at the 12 months follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The SBST is associated with the LBP recovery trajectory. The SBST might be a useful tool to predict the disability trajectory in a heterogeneous group of people with low back pain in primary care and might, therefore, be recommended in future clinical practice guidelines. The type of leg pain was not associated with the recovery trajectory of LBP. Future research might focus on evaluating different types of leg pain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov: 109,643.

Prognosis of Patients With Neuropathic Low Back-Related Leg Pain: An Exploratory Study Using Prospective Data From UK Primary Care

This prospective cohort study investigates the prognosis of patients with neuropathic low back-related leg pain consulting in UK primary care. Data from 511 patients were collected using standardised baseline clinical examinations (including magnetic resonance imaging scan findings), self-report questionnaires at baseline, 4 months, 12 months, and 3 years. Cases of possible neuropathic pain (NP) and persistent-NP were identified using either of 2 definitions: 1) clinical diagnosis of sciatica, 2) self-report version of leeds assessment for neurological symptoms and signs (s-LANSS). Mixed-effects models compared pain intensity (highest of mean leg or mean back pain [0-10 Numerical Rating Scale]) over 3-years between persistent-NP versus non-persistent-NP based on 1) clinical diagnosis, 2) s-LANSS. Logistic regression examined associations between potential prognostic factors and persistent-NP at 4 months based on the 2 NP definitions. At 4-months, using both definitions: 1) approximately 4 out of 10 patients had persistent-NP, 2) mean pain intensity was higher for patients with persistent-NP at all follow-up points compared to those without, 3) only pain self-efficacy was significantly associated with persistent-NP (s-LANSS: OR .98, sciatica: .98), but it did not predict cases of persistent-NP in either multivariable model. Based on factors routinely collected from self-report and clinical examination, it was not possible to predict persistent-NP in this population. PERSPECTIVE: This study provides evidence that neuropathic back-related leg pain in patients consulting in primary care is not always persistent. Patients with persistent neuropathic pain had worse outcomes than those without. Neither leg pain intensity, pain self-efficacy nor MRI scan findings predicted cases of persistent neuropathic pain in this patient population.

Occupation-based demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation of spine pain: A retrospective analysis of 71,727 patients from urban India

BACKGROUND

Although many studies have investigated the physical and ergonomic risks of spine pain in specific occupation groups, the literature is lacking on occupation-based clinical and psychological presentation in patients with spine pain.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze occupation-based variation in demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation in patients with spine pain.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed the clinical data of 71727 patients with spine pain visiting a chain of spine rehabilitation clinics. Demographic and clinical variables such as gender, age, affected site, symptom duration, clinical symptoms and presentation, pain intensity, disability, and STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT) risk were compared between 9 occupational groups.

RESULTS

The service and sales workers (44%) and students (43.5%) groups had the highest percentage of patients who presented with central spine pain; military personnel had the highest percentage of patients who presented with unilateral radicular pain (51.5%); and the retired or unemployed group had the highest percentage of patients who presented with severe myotomal loss (grade≤3) (6%). Homemakers had significantly higher pain intensity and disability (p < 0.001) and had the highest percentage of patients who presented with severe pain (47%), severe and crippled disability (59.5%), and medium to high risk (59%) with SBT when compared to other occupational groups.

CONCLUSION

Patients with spine pain showed variation in demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation based on their occupation. The findings of this study can be the basis for identifying risk factors for spine pain and helping plan preventive and treatment measures based on their occupation.

Factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica': the FORECAST longitudinal prognostic factor cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Sciatica is a common condition and is associated with higher levels of pain, disability, poorer quality of life, and increased use of health resources compared with low back pain alone. Although many patients recover, a third develop persistent sciatica symptoms. It remains unclear, why some patients develop persistent sciatica as none of the traditionally considered clinical parameters (eg, symptom severity, routine MRI) are consistent prognostic factors.The FORECAST study (factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica') will take a different approach by exploring mechanism-based subgroups in patients with sciatica and investigate whether a mechanism-based approach can identify factors that predict pain persistence in patients with sciatica.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will perform a prospective longitudinal cohort study including 180 people with acute/subacute sciatica. N=168 healthy participants will provide normative data. A detailed set of variables will be assessed within 3 months after sciatica onset. This will include self-reported sensory and psychosocial profiles, quantitative sensory testing, blood inflammatory markers and advanced neuroimaging. We will determine outcome with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index and a Numerical Pain Rating Scale for leg pain severity at 3 and 12 months.We will use principal component analysis followed by clustering methods to identify subgroups. Univariate associations and machine learning methods optimised for high dimensional small data sets will be used to identify the most powerful predictors and model selection/accuracy.The results will provide crucial information about the pathophysiological drivers of sciatica symptoms and may identify prognostic factors of pain persistence.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The FORECAST study has received ethical approval (South Central Oxford C, 18/SC/0263). The dissemination strategy will be guided by our patient and public engagement activities and will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, social media and podcasts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN18170726; Pre-results.

Prognostic factors associated with outcome following an epidural steroid injection for disc-related sciatica: a systematic review and narrative synthesis

PURPOSE

Clinical guidelines recommend epidural steroid injection (ESI) as a treatment option for severe disc-related sciatica, but there is considerable uncertainty about its effectiveness. Currently, we know very little about factors that might be associated with good or poor outcomes from ESI. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesise and appraise the evidence investigating prognostic factors associated with outcomes following ESI for patients with imaging confirmed disc-related sciatica.

METHODS

The search strategy involved the electronic databases Medline, Embase, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO and reference lists of eligible studies. Selected papers were quality appraised independently by two reviewers using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Between-study heterogeneity precluded statistical pooling of results.

RESULTS

3094 citations were identified; 15 studies were eligible. Overall study quality was low with all judged to have moderate or high risk of bias. Forty-two prognostic factors were identified but were measured inconsistently. The most commonly assessed prognostic factors were related to pain and function (n = 10 studies), imaging features (n = 8 studies), patient socio-demographics (n = 7 studies), health and lifestyle (n = 6 studies), clinical assessment findings (n = 4 studies) and injection level (n = 4 studies). No prognostic factor was found to be consistently associated with outcomes following ESI. Most studies found no association or results that conflicted with other studies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is little, and low quality, evidence to guide practice in terms of factors that predict outcomes in patients following ESI for disc-related sciatica. The results can help inform some of the decisions about potential prognostic factors that should be assessed in future well-designed prospective cohort studies.

Do Short-Term Effects Predict Long-Term Improvements in Women Who Receive Manual Therapy or Surgery for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome? A Bayesian Network Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to develop a data-driven Bayesian network approach to understand the potential multivariate pathways of the effect of manual physical therapy in women with carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS).

METHODS

Data from a randomized clinical trial (n = 104) were analyzed comparing manual therapy including desensitization maneuvers of the central nervous system versus surgery in women with CTS. All variables included in the original trial were included in a Bayesian network to explore its multivariate relationship. The model was used to quantify the direct and indirect pathways of the effect of physical therapy and surgery on short-term, mid-term, and long-term changes in the clinical variables of pain, related function, and symptom severity.

RESULTS

Manual physical therapy improved function in women with CTS (between-groups difference: 0.09; 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.11). The Bayesian network showed that early improvements (at 1 month) in function and symptom severity led to long-term (at 12 months) changes in related disability both directly and via complex pathways involving baseline pain intensity and depression levels. Additionally, women with moderate CTS had 0.14-point (95% CI = 0.11 to 0.17 point) poorer function at 12 months than those with mild CTS and 0.12-point (95% CI = 0.09 to 0.15 point) poorer function at 12 months than those with severe CTS.

CONCLUSION

Current findings suggest that short-term benefits in function and symptom severity observed after manual therapy/surgery were associated with long-term improvements in function, but mechanisms driving these effects interact with depression levels and severity as assessed using electromyography. Nevertheless, it should be noted that between-group differences depending on severity determined using electromyography were small, and the clinical relevance is elusive. Further data-driven analyses involving a broad range of biopsychosocial variables are recommended to fully understand the pathways underpinning CTS treatment effects.

IMPACT

Short-term effects of physical manual therapy seem to be clinically relevant for obtaining long-term effects in women with CTS.

An Assessment of Nonoperative Management Strategies in a Herniated Lumbar Disc Population: Successes Versus Failures

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the utilization of conservative treatments in patients with lumbar intervertebral disc herniations who were successfully managed nonoperatively versus patients who failed conservative therapies and elected to undergo surgery (microdiscectomy).

METHODS

Clinical records from adult patients with an initial herniated lumbar disc between 2007 and 2017 were selected from a large insurance database. Patients were divided into 2 cohorts: patients treated successfully with nonoperative therapies and patients that failed conservative management and opted for microdiscectomy surgery. Nonoperative treatments utilized by the 2 groups were collected over a 2-year surveillance window. "Utilization" was defined by cost billed to patients, prescriptions written, and number of units disbursed.

RESULTS

A total of 277 941 patients with lumbar intervertebral disc herniations were included. Of these, 269 713 (97.0%) were successfully managed with nonoperative treatments, while 8228 (3.0%) failed maximal nonoperative therapy (MNT) and underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy. MNT failures occurred more frequently in males (3.7%), and patients with a history of lumbar epidural steroid injections (4.5%) or preoperative opioid use (3.6%). In a logistic multivariate regression analysis, male sex and utilization of opioids were independent predictors of conservative management failure. Furthermore, a cost analysis indicated that patients who failed nonoperative treatments billed for nearly double ($1718/patient) compared to patients who were successfully treated ($906/patient).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the majority of patients are successfully managed nonoperatively. However, in the subset of patients that fail conservative management, male sex and prior opioid use appear to be independent predictors of treatment failure.

Self-reported prognostic factors in adults reporting neck or low back pain: An umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Numerous systematic reviews have attempted to synthesize evidence on prognostic factors for predicting future outcomes such as pain, disability and return-to-work/work absence in neck and low back pain populations.

DATABASES AND DATATREATMENT

An umbrella review of systematic reviews was conducted to summarize the magnitude and quality of the evidence for each prognostic factor investigated. Searches were limited to the last 10 years (2008-11th April 2018, updated 28th September 2020). A two-stage approach was undertaken: in stage one, data on prognostic factors was extracted from systematic reviews identified from the systematic search that met the inclusion criteria. Where a prognostic factor was investigated in ≥1 systematic review and where 50% or more of those reviews found an association between the prognostic factor and one of the outcomes of interest, it was taken forward to stage two. In stage two, additional information extracted included the strength of association found, consistency of effects and risk of bias. The GRADE approach was used to grade confidence in the evidence.

RESULTS

Stage one identified 41 reviews (90 prognostic factors), with 35 reviews (25 prognostic factors) taken forward to stage two. Seven prognostic factors (disability/activity limitation, mental health; pain intensity; pain severity; coping; expectation of outcome/recovery and fear-avoidance) were judged as having moderate confidence for robust findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was conflicting evidence for the strength of association with outcome, these factors may be used for identifying vulnerable subgroups or people able to self-manage. Further research can investigate the impact of using such prognostic information on treatment/referral decisions and patient outcomes.

Impact of Sarcopenia on Degenerative Lumbar Spondylosis

Sarcopenia is characterized by progressive age-related and systematic loss of skeletal muscle mass, strength, and function. It was classified as an independent disease in 2016; thus, there is a sparsity of research on the association of sarcopenia with lower back pain and spinal diseases. Its prevalence is around 10% worldwide and it has been shown to be detrimental to quality of life in the elderly. Sarcopenia can be clinically identified by assessing muscle mass and physical performance measurements to show reduced strength (eg, grip strength chair rise and knee extensions) or function (eg, walking speed or distance). Radiographic imaging techniques such as computed tomography, ultrasound, or magnetic resonance imaging help diagnose sarcopenia in the lumbar spine by measuring either the cross-sectional area or the fatty infiltrate of the lumbar musculature. The presence of sarcopenia in patients preoperatively may lead to worse postoperative outcomes. Research in the treatment options for sarcopenia presurgery is still in its infancy but exercise (both aerobic and resistance exercise have been found to slow down the rate of decline in muscle mass and strength with aging) and nutrition have been utilized to varying success and show great promise in the future.

Stratified versus usual care for the management of primary care patients with sciatica: the SCOPiC RCT

BACKGROUND

Sciatica has a substantial impact on patients and society. Current care is 'stepped', comprising an initial period of simple measures of advice and analgesia, for most patients, commonly followed by physiotherapy, and then by more intensive interventions if symptoms fail to resolve. No study has yet tested a model of stratified care in which patients are subgrouped and matched to different care pathways based on their prognosis and clinical characteristics.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a stratified care model compared with usual, non-stratified care.

DESIGN

This was a two-parallel group, multicentre, pragmatic, 1 : 1 randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Participants were recruited from primary care (42 general practices) in North Staffordshire, North Shropshire/Wales and Cheshire in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible patients were aged ≥ 18 years, had suspected sciatica, had access to a mobile phone/landline, were not pregnant, were not receiving treatment for the same problem and had not had previous spinal surgery.

INTERVENTIONS

In stratified care, a combination of prognostic and clinical criteria associated with referral to spinal specialist services was used to allocate patients to one of three groups for matched care pathways. Group 1 received advice and up to two sessions of physiotherapy, group 2 received up to six sessions of physiotherapy, and group 3 was fast-tracked to magnetic resonance imaging and spinal specialist opinion. Usual care was based on the stepped-care approach without the use of any stratification tools/algorithms. Patients were randomised using a remote web-based randomisation service.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was time to first resolution of sciatica symptoms (six point ordinal scale, collected via text messages). Secondary outcomes (at 4 and 12 months) included pain, function, psychological health, days lost from work, work productivity, satisfaction with care and health-care use. A cost-utility analysis was undertaken over 12 months. A qualitative study explored patients' and clinicians' views of the fast-track care pathway to a spinal specialist.

RESULTS

A total of 476 patients were randomised (238 in each arm). For the primary outcome, the overall response rate was 89.3% (88.3% and 90.3% in the stratified and usual care arms, respectively). Relief from symptoms was slightly faster (2 weeks median difference) in the stratified care arm, but this difference was not statistically significant (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.46; p = 0.288). On average, participants in both arms reported good improvement from baseline, on most outcomes, over time. Following the assessment at the research clinic, most participants in the usual care arm were referred to physiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The stratified care model tested in this trial was not more clinically effective than usual care, and was not likely to be a cost-effective option. The fast-track pathway was felt to be acceptable to both patients and clinicians; however, clinicians expressed reluctance to consider invasive procedures if symptoms were of short duration.

LIMITATIONS

Participants in the usual care arm, on average, reported good outcomes, making it challenging to demonstrate superiority of stratified care. The performance of the algorithm used to allocate patients to treatment pathways may have influenced results.

FUTURE WORK

Other approaches to stratified care may provide superior outcomes for sciatica.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN75449581.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Stratified care versus usual care for management of patients presenting with sciatica in primary care (SCOPiC): a randomised controlled trial

Background

Sciatica has a substantial impact on individuals and society. Stratified care has been shown to lead to better outcomes among patients with non-specific low back pain, but it has not been tested for sciatica. We aimed to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of stratified care versus non-stratified usual care for patients presenting with sciatica in primary care.

Methods

We did a two-parallel arm, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial across three centres in the UK (North Staffordshire, North Shropshire/Wales, and Cheshire). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical diagnosis of sciatica, access to a mobile phone or landline number, were not pregnant, were not currently receiving treatment for the same problem, and had no previous spinal surgery. Patients were recruited from general practices and randomly assigned (1:1) by a remote web-based service to stratified care or usual care, stratified by centre and stratification group allocation. In the stratified care arm, a combination of prognostic and clinical criteria associated with referral to spinal specialist services were used to allocate patients to one of three groups for matched care pathways. Group 1 was offered brief advice and support in up to two physiotherapy sessions; group 2 was offered up to six physiotherapy sessions; and group 3 was fast-tracked to MRI and spinal specialist assessment within 4 weeks of randomisation. The primary outcome was self-reported time to first resolution of sciatica symptoms, defined as “completely recovered” or “much better” on a 6-point ordinal scale, collected via text messages or telephone calls. Analyses were by intention to treat. Health-care costs and cost-effectiveness were also assessed. This trial is registered on the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN75449581.

Findings

Between May 28, 2015, and July 18, 2017, 476 patients from 42 general practices around three UK centres were randomly assigned to stratified care or usual care (238 in each arm). For the primary outcome, the overall response rate was 89% (9467 of 10 601 text messages sent; 4688 [88%] of 5310 in the stratified care arm and 4779 [90%] of 5291 in the usual care arm). Median time to symptom resolution was 10 weeks (95% CI 6·4–13·6) in the stratified care arm and 12 weeks (9·4–14·6) in the usual care arm, with the survival analysis showing no significant difference between the arms (hazard ratio 1·14 [95% CI 0·89–1·46]). Stratified care was not cost-effective compared to usual care.

Interpretation

The stratified care model for patients with sciatica consulting in primary care was not better than usual care for either clinical or health economic outcomes. These results do not support a transition to this stratified care model for patients with sciatica.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research.

Baseline Characteristics May Help Indicate the Best Choice of Health Care Provider for Back Pain Patients in Primary Care: Results From a Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Baseline characteristics of patients low back pain differ substantially between care settings, but it is largely unknown whether predictors are of equal importance across settings. The aim of this study was to investigate whether 8 known predictors relate differently to outcomes in chiropractic practice and in general practice and to which degree these factors may be helpful in selecting patients benefiting more from one setting or the other.

METHODS

Patient characteristics were collected at baseline, and outcomes of pain intensity (numeric rating scale 0-10) and activity limitation (Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire 0-100) after 2, 12, and 52 weeks. Differences in the prognostic strength between settings were investigated for each prognostic factor separately by estimating the interaction between setting and the prognostic factor using regression models. Between-setting differences in outcome in high-risk and low-risk subgroups, formed by single prognostic factors, were assessed in similar models adjusted for a propensity score to take baseline differences between settings into account.

RESULTS

Prognostic factors were generally associated more strongly with outcomes in general practice compared with chiropractic practice. The difference was statistically significant for general health, duration of pain, and musculoskeletal comorbidity. After propensity score adjustment, differences in outcomes between settings were insignificant, but negative prognostic factors tended to be less influential in chiropractic practice except for leg pain and depression, which tended to have less negative impact in general practice.

CONCLUSION

Known prognostic factors related differently to outcomes in the 2 settings, suggesting that some subgroups of patients might benefit more from one setting than the other.

New insight to the characteristics and clinical course of clusters of patients with imaging confirmed disc-related sciatica

BACKGROUND

Referral to secondary care is common for a considerable proportion of patients with persistent sciatica symptoms. It is unclear if information from clinical assessment can further identify distinct subgroups of disc-related sciatica, with perhaps different clinical courses.

AIMS

This study aims to identify and describe clusters of imaging confirmed disc-related sciatica patients using latent class analysis, and compare their clinical course.

METHODS

The study population were 466 patients with disc-related sciatica. Variables from clinical assessment were included in the analysis. Characteristics of the identified clusters were described and their clinical course over 2 years was compared.

RESULTS

A four-cluster solution was optimal. Cluster 1 (n = 110) had mild back and leg pain; cluster 2 (n = 59) had moderate back and leg pain; cluster 3 (n = 158) had mild back pain and severe leg pain; cluster 4 (n = 139) had severe back and leg pain. Patients in cluster 4 had the most severe profile in terms of disability, distress and comorbidity and the lowest reported global change and the smallest proportion of patients with a successful outcome at 2 years. Of the 135 patients who underwent surgery, 42% and 41% were in clusters 3 and 4, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a strict diagnosis of sciatica, this work identified four clusters of patients primarily differentiated by back and leg pain severity. Patients with severe back and leg pain had the most severe profile at baseline and follow-up irrespective of intervention. This simple classification system may be useful when considering prognosis and management with sciatica patients.

SIGNIFICANCE

Using data from a large observational prospective study, this work identifies four distinct clusters of patients with imaging confirmed disc-related sciatica. This classification could be used when considering prognosis and management with sciatica patients at their initial consultation.

Systematic review of prognostic factors for work participation in patients with sciatica

Sciatica impacts on the ability to work and may lead to a reduced return to work. This study reviewed and summarised prognostic factors of work participation in patients who received conservative or surgical treatment for clinically diagnosed sciatica. We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and PsycINFO until January 2018. Cohort studies, using a measure of work participation as outcome, were included. Two independent reviewers performed study inclusion and used the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool for risk of bias assessment and GRADE to rate the quality of the evidence. Based on seven studies describing six cohorts (n=1408 patients) that assessed 21 potential prognostic factors, favourable factors for return to work (follow-up ranging from 3 months to 10 years) included younger age, better general health, less low back pain or sciatica bothersomeness, better physical function, negative straight leg raise-test, physician expecting surgery to be beneficial, better pain coping, less depression and mental stress, less fear of movement and low physical work load. Study results could not be pooled. Using GRADE, the quality of the evidence ranged from moderate to very low, with downgrading mainly for a high risk of bias and imprecision. Several prognostic factors like pain, disability and psychological factors were identified and reviewed, and these could be targeted using additional interventions to optimise return to work. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42016042497.

Subgrouping patients with sciatica in primary care for matched care pathways: development of a subgrouping algorithm

Background

Sciatica is a painful condition managed by a stepped care approach for most patients. Currently, there are no decision-making tools to guide matching care pathways for patients with sciatica without evidence of serious pathology, early in their presentation. This study sought to develop an algorithm to subgroup primary care patients with sciatica, for initial decision-making for matched care pathways, including fast-track referral to investigations and specialist spinal opinion.

Methods

This was an analysis of existing data from a UK NHS cohort study of patients consulting in primary care with sciatica (n = 429). Factors potentially associated with referral to specialist services, were identified from the literature and clinical opinion. Percentage of patients fast-tracked to specialists, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for identifying this subgroup, were calculated.

Results

The algorithm allocates patients to 1 of 3 groups, combining information about four clinical characteristics, and risk of poor prognosis (low, medium or high risk) in terms of pain-related persistent disability. Patients at low risk of poor prognosis, irrespective of clinical characteristics, are allocated to group 1. Patients at medium risk of poor prognosis who have all four clinical characteristics, and patients at high risk of poor prognosis with any three of the clinical characteristics, are allocated to group 3. The remainder are allocated to group 2. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the algorithm for patient allocation to fast-track group 3, were 51, 73 and 22% respectively.

Conclusion

We developed an algorithm to support clinical decisions regarding early referral for primary care patients with sciatica. Limitations of this study include the low positive predictive value and use of data from one cohort only. On-going research is investigating whether the use of this algorithm and the linked care pathways, leads to faster resolution of sciatica symptoms.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12891-019-2686-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Diffusion tensor imaging reveals changes in microstructural integrity along compressed nerve roots that correlate with chronic pain symptoms and motor deficiencies in elderly stenosis patients

Age-related degenerative changes in the lumbar spine frequently result in nerve root compression causing severe pain and disability. Given the increasing incidence of lumbar spinal disorders in the aging population and the discrepancies between the use of current diagnostic imaging tools and clinical symptoms, novel methods of nerve root assessment are needed. We investigated elderly patients with stenosis at L4-L5 or L5-S1 levels. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was used to quantify microstructure in compressed L5 nerve roots and investigate relationships to clinical symptoms and motor neurophysiology. DTI metrics (i.e. FA, MD, AD and RD) were measured at proximal, mid and distal segments along compressed (i.e. L5) and intact (i.e. L4 or S1) nerve roots. FA was significantly reduced in compressed nerve roots and MD, AD and RD were significantly elevated in the most proximal segment of the nerve root studied. FA was significantly correlated with electrophysiological measures of root function: minimum F-wave latency and peripheral motor conduction time (PMCT). In addition, FA along the compressed root also correlated with leg pain and depression score. There was also a relationship between RD and anxiety, leg pain and disability score and AD correlated with depression score. Taken together, these data show that DTI metrics are sensitive to nerve root compression in patients with stenosis as a result of age-related lumbar degeneration. Critically, they show that the changes in microstructural integrity along compressed L5 nerve roots are closely related to a number of clinical symptoms associated with the development of chronic pain as well as neurophysiological assessments of motor function. These inherent relationships between nerve root damage and phenotype suggest that the use DTI is a promising method as a way to stratify treatment selection and predict outcomes.

•

DTI can be used to quantify lumbar spinal nerve root compression in elderly patients.

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Diffusion parameters correlate with functional neurophysiology and clinical symptoms.

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DTI has the potential to be used to predict treatment outcomes.

Clinical course and prognostic models for the conservative management of cervical radiculopathy: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

To describe the clinical course and develop prognostic models for poor recovery in patients with cervical radiculopathy who are managed conservatively.

METHODS

Sixty-one consecutive adults with cervical radiculopathy who were referred for conservative management were included in a prospective cohort study, with 6- and 12-month follow-up assessments. Exclusion criteria were the presence of known serious pathology or spinal surgery in the past. Outcome measures were perceived recovery, neck pain intensity and disability level. Multiple imputation analyses were performed for missing values. Prognostic models were developed using multivariable logistic regression analyses, with bootstrapping techniques for internal validation.

RESULTS

About 55% of participants reported to be recovered at 6 and 12 months. All multivariable models contained 2 baseline predictors. Longer symptoms duration increased the risk of poor perceived recovery, whereas the presence of paresthesia decreased this risk. A higher neck pain intensity and a longer duration of symptoms increased the risk of poor relief of neck pain. A higher disability score increased the risk of poor relief of disability, and larger active range of rotation toward the affected side decreased this risk. Following bootstrapping, the explained variance of the models varied between 0.22 and 0.30, and the median area under the curve varied between 0.75 and 0.79.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical course of cervical radiculopathy appears to be long, with most of the reduction in symptoms occurring within the first 6 months. All prognostic models showed an adequate predictive performance with modest diagnostic accuracy and explained variance. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

Prognosis of sciatica and back-related leg pain in primary care: the ATLAS cohort

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Evidence is lacking on the prognosis and prognostic factors of back-related leg pain and sciatica in patients seeing their primary care physicians. This evidence could guide timely appropriate treatment and referral decisions.

PURPOSE

The present study aims to describe the prognosis and prognostic factors in primary care patients with low back-related leg pain and sciatica.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a prospective cohort study.

PATIENT SAMPLE

The present study included adults visiting their family doctor with back-related leg pain in the United Kingdom.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Information about pain, function, psychological, and clinical variables, was collected. Good outcome was defined as 30% or more reduction in disability (Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire).

METHODS

Participants completed the questionnaires, underwent clinical assessments, received a magnetic resonance imaging scan, and were followed-up 12 months later. Mixed-effects logistic regression evaluated the prognostic value of six a priori defined variable sets (leg pain duration, pain intensity, neuropathic pain, psychological factors, clinical examination, and imaging variables). A combined model, including variables from all models, examined independent effects. The National Institute for Health Research funded the study. There are no conflicts of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 609 patients were included. At 12 months, 55% of patients improved in both the total sample and the sciatica group. For the whole cohort, longer leg pain duration (odds ratio [OR] 0.41; confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.90), higher identity score (OR 0.70; CI 0.53-0.93), and patient's belief that the problem will last a long time (OR 0.27; CI 0.13-0.57) were the strongest independent prognostic factors negatively associated with improvement. These last two factors were similarly negatively associated with improvement in the sciatica subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study provides new evidence on the prognosis and prognostic factors of back-related leg pain and sciatica in primary care. Just over half of patients improved at 12 months. Patient's belief of recovery timescale and number of other symptoms attributed to the pain are independent prognostic factors. These factors can be used to inform and direct decisions about timing and intensity of available therapeutic options.

Pain Recurrence After Discectomy for Symptomatic Lumbar Disc Herniation

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from a concurrent randomized trial and cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine risks and predictors of recurrent pain following standard open discectomy for subacute/chronic symptomatic lumbar disc herniation (SLDH).

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Most previous studies of recurrence after discectomy do not explicitly define pain resolution and recurrence, and do not account for variable durations of time at risk for recurrence.

METHODS

We used survival analysis methods to examine predictors of leg pain recurrence. For individuals with initial resolution of leg pain, we defined recurrent leg pain as having leg pain, receiving lumbar epidural steroid injections, or undergoing lumbar surgery subsequent to initial leg pain resolution. We calculated cumulative risks of leg pain recurrence using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and examined predictors of recurrence using Cox proportional hazards models. We used similar methods to examine LBP recurrence.

RESULTS

One- and three-year cumulative risks of leg pain recurrence were 20% and 45%, respectively. One- and three- year leg pain recurrence risks were substantially lower in participants with complete initial resolution of leg pain (17% and 41%, respectively) than in those without (27% and 54%, respectively). In multivariate analyses, complete leg pain resolution (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0.90), smoking (aHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.22-2.33]), and depression (aHR 1.74 [95% CI 1.18-2.56]) predicted leg pain recurrence. The 1- and 3-year risk of LBP recurrence was 29% and 65%, respectively. LBP recurrence risk at 3 years was substantially lower in participants with complete initial resolution of LBP than in those without, but not at 1 year.

CONCLUSION

Recurrence of leg pain and LBP is common after discectomy for SLDH. Cumulative risks of both leg pain and LBP recurrence were generally lower in participants achieving complete initial resolution of pain post-discectomy.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2.

Clinical course and prognosis of musculoskeletal pain in patients referred for physiotherapy: does pain site matter?

Background

Danish patients with musculoskeletal disorders are commonly referred for primary care physiotherapy treatment but little is known about their general health status, pain diagnoses, clinical course and prognosis.

The objectives of this study were to 1) describe the clinical course of patients with musculoskeletal disorders referred to physiotherapy, 2) identify predictors associated with a satisfactory outcome, and 3) determine the influence of the primary pain site diagnosis relative to those predictors.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study of patients (n = 2,706) newly referred because of musculoskeletal pain to 30 physiotherapy practices from January 2012 to May 2012. Data were collected via a web-based questionnaire 1–2 days prior to the first physiotherapy consultation and at 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months, from clinical records (including primary musculoskeletal symptom diagnosis based on the ICPC-2 classification system), and from national registry data. The main outcome was the Patient Acceptable Symptom State. Potential predictors were analysed using backwards step-wise selection during longitudinal Generalised Estimating Equation regression modelling. To assess the influence of pain site on these associations, primary pain site diagnosis was added to the model.

Results

Of the patients included, 66% were female and the mean age was 48 (SD 15). The percentage of patients reporting their symptoms as acceptable was 32% at 6 weeks, 43% at 3 months and 52% at 6 months. A higher probability of satisfactory outcome was associated with place of residence, being retired, no compensation claim, less frequent pain, shorter duration of pain, lower levels of disability and fear avoidance, better mental health and being a non-smoker. Primary pain site diagnosis had little influence on these associations, and was not predictive of a satisfactory outcome.

Conclusion

Only half of the patients rated their symptoms as acceptable at 6 months. Although satisfactory outcome was difficult to predict at an individual patient level, there were a number of prognostic factors that were associated with this outcome. These factors should be considered when developing generic prediction tools to assess the probability of satisfactory outcome in musculoskeletal physiotherapy patients, because the site of pain did not affect that prognostic association.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12891-017-1487-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic Factors for Persistent Leg-Pain in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Sciatica

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To identify potential prognostic factors for persistent leg-pain at 12 months among patients hospitalized with acute severe sciatica.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The long-term outcome for patients admitted to hospital with sciatica is generally unfavorable. Results concerning prognostic factors for persistent sciatica are limited and conflicting.

METHODS

A total of 210 patients acutely admitted to hospital for either surgical or nonsurgical treatment of sciatica were consecutively recruited and received a thorough clinical and radiographic examination in addition to responding to a comprehensive questionnaire. Follow-up assessments were done at 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months. Potential prognostic factors were measured at baseline and at 6 weeks. The impact of these factors on leg-pain was analyzed by multiple linear regression modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 151 patients completed the entire study, 93 receiving nonrandomized surgical treatment. The final multivariate models showed that the following factors were significantly associated with leg-pain at 12 months: high psychosocial risk according to the Örebro Musculosceletal Pain Questionnaire (unstandardized beta coefficient 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-2.38, P < 0.001), not receiving surgical treatment (1.11, 95% CI 0.29-1.93, P = 0.01), not actively employed upon admission (1.47, 95% CI 0.63-2.31, P < 0.01), and self-reported leg-pain recorded 6 weeks posthospital admission (0.49, 95% CI 0.34-0.63, P < 0.001). Interaction analysis showed that the Örebro Musculosceletal Pain Questionnaire had significant prognostic value only on the nonsurgically treated patients (3.26, 95% CI 1.89-4.63, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that a psychosocial screening tool and the implementation of a 6-week postadmission follow-up has prognostic value in the hospital management of severe sciatica.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2.

Pain expectations in neuropathic pain: Is it best to be optimistic?

BACKGROUND

Pain expectancy may be an important variable that has been found to influence the effectiveness of treatments for pain. Much of the literature supports a self-fulfilment perspective where expectations for pain relief predict the actual pain experienced. However, in conditions such as neuropathic pain (NeP) where pain relief is difficult to attain, expectations for pain relief could be unrealistic. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between realistic/unrealistic expectations and 6-month, post-treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a large cohort of patients with NeP (n = 789) attending tertiary care centres to determine the association between unrealistic (both positive and negative) and realistic expectations with outcomes after multidisciplinary treatment. An expectation variable with three categories was calculated: realistic expectations were those whose expected reduction in pain was similar to the observed mean group reduction in pain, while optimistic and pessimistic expectations were those who over- or under-estimated the expected response to treatment, respectively. The association between baseline realistic/unrealistic expectations and 6-month pain-related disability, catastrophizing and psychological distress was assessed.

RESULTS

Univariable analyses suggested that realistic expectations were associated with lower levels of disability, catastrophizing and psychological distress, compared to unrealistic expectations. However, after adjustment for baseline symptom severity, multivariable analysis revealed that patients with optimistic expectations had lower levels of disability, than those with realistic expectations. Those with pessimistic expectations had higher levels of catastrophizing and psychological distress at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are largely congruent with the self-fulfilment perspective to expectations.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study defined realistic pain expectations with patient data. Examining the relationship between expectations between pain and disability in a large cohort of patients with neuropathic pain.

PREPARE: Pre-surgery physiotherapy for patients with degenerative lumbar spine disorder: a randomized controlled trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines for the management of patients with specific low back pain pathology suggest non-surgical intervention as first-line treatment, but there is insufficient evidence to make recommendations of the content in the non-surgical intervention. Opinions regarding the dose of non-surgical intervention that should be trialled prior to decision making about surgery intervention vary. The aim of the present study is to investigate if physiotherapy administrated before surgery improves function, pain and health in patients with degenerative lumbar spine disorder scheduled for surgery. The patients are followed over two years. A secondary aim is to study what factors predict short and long term outcomes.

METHODS

This study is a single blinded, 2-arm, randomized controlled trial with follow-up after the completion of pre-surgery intervention as well as 3, 12 and 24 months post-surgery. The study will recruit men and women, 25 to 80 years of age, scheduled for surgery due to; disc herniation, spinal stenosis, spondylolisthesis or degenerative disc disease. A total of 202 patients will be randomly allocated to a pre-surgery physiotherapy intervention or a waiting list group for 9 weeks. The waiting-list group will receive standardized information about surgery, post-surgical rehabilitation and advice to stay active. The pre-surgery physiotherapy group will receive physiotherapy 2 times per week, consisting of a stratified classification treatment, based on assessment findings. One of the following treatments will be selected; a) Specific exercises and mobilization, b) Motor control exercises or c) Traction. The pre-surgery physiotherapy group will also be prescribed a tailor-made general supervised exercise program. The physiotherapist will use a behavioral approach aimed at reducing patient fear avoidance and increasing activity levels. They will also receive standardized information about surgery, post-surgical rehabilitation and advice to stay active. Primary outcome measure is Oswestry Disability Index. Secondary outcome measures are the visual analogue scale for back and leg pain, pain drawing, health related quality of life, Hospital anxiety and depression scale, Fear avoidance beliefs questionnaire, Self-efficacy scale and Work Ability Index.

DISCUSSION

The study findings will help improve the treatment of patients with degenerative lumbar spine disorder scheduled for surgery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT02454400 (Trial registration date: August 31st 2015) and has been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02454400 .

Patients with sciatica still experience pain and disability 5 years after surgery: A systematic review with meta-analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The clinical course of patients with sciatica is believed to be favourable, but there is conflicting evidence on the postoperative course of this condition. We aimed to investigate the clinical course of sciatica following surgery.

DATABASES AND DATA TREATMENT

An electronic search was conducted on MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL from inception to April 2015. We screened for prospective cohort studies investigating pain or disability outcomes for patients with sciatica treated surgically. Fractional polynomial regression analysis was used to generate pooled means and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of pain and disability up to 5 years after surgery. Estimates of pain and disability (converted to a 0-100 scale) were plotted over time, from inception to last available follow-up time.

RESULTS

Forty records (39 cohort studies) were included with a total of 13,883 patients with sciatica. Before surgery, the pooled mean leg pain score was 75.2 (95% CI 68.1-82.4) which reduced to 15.3 (95% CI 8.5-22.1) at 3 months. Patients were never fully recovered in the long-term and pain increased to 21.0 (95% CI 12.5-29.5) at 5 years. The pooled mean disability score before surgery was 55.1 (95% CI 52.3-58.0) and this decreased to 15.5 (95% CI 13.3-17.6) at 3 months, and further reduced to 13.1 (95% CI 10.6-15.5) at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Although surgery is followed by a rapid decrease in pain and disability by 3 months, patients still experience mild to moderate pain and disability 5 years after surgery. WHAT DOES THIS REVIEW ADD?: This review provides a quantitative summary of the postoperative course of patients with sciatica. Patients with sciatica experienced a rapid reduction in pain and disability in the first 3 months, but still had mild to moderate symptoms 5 years after surgery. Although no significant differences were found, microdiscectomy showed larger improvements compared to other surgical techniques.

Recurrence of Pain After Usual Nonoperative Care for Symptomatic Lumbar Disk Herniation: Analysis of Data From the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine risks and predictors of recurrent leg and low back pain (LBP) after unstructured, usual nonoperative care for subacute/chronic symptomatic lumbar disk herniation (LDH).

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from a concurrent randomized trial and observational cohort study.

SETTING

Thirteen outpatient spine practices.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 199 participants with resolution of leg pain and 142 participants with resolution of LBP from among 478 participants receiving usual nonoperative care for symptomatic LDH.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS

Potential predictors of recurrence included time to initial symptom resolution, sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, work-related factors, imaging-detected herniation characteristics, and baseline pain bothersomeness.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Leg pain and LBP bothersomeness were assessed by the use of a 0-6 numerical scale at up to 4 years of follow-up. For individuals with initial resolution of leg pain, we defined recurrent leg pain as having leg pain, receiving lumbar epidural steroid injections, or undergoing lumbar surgery subsequent to initial leg pain resolution. We calculated cumulative risks of recurrence by using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and examined predictors of recurrence using Cox proportional hazards models. We used similar definitions for LBP recurrence.

RESULTS

One- and 3-year cumulative recurrence risks were 23% and 51% for leg pain, and 28% and 70% for LBP, respectively. Early leg pain resolution did not predict future leg pain recurrence. Complete leg pain resolution (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.72) and posterolateral herniation location (aHR 0.61; 95% CI 0.39-0.97) predicted a lower risk of leg pain recurrence, and joint problems (aHR 1.89; 95% CI 1.16-3.05) and smoking (aHR 1.81; 95% CI 1.07-3.05) predicted a greater risk of leg pain recurrence. For participants with complete initial resolution of pain, recurrence risks at 1 and 3 years were 16% and 41% for leg pain and 24% and 59% for LBP, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrence of pain is common after unstructured, usual nonsurgical care for LDH. These risk estimates depend on the specific definitions applied, and the predictors identified require replication in future studies.

Prognostic value of magnetic resonance imaging findings in patients with sciatica

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of MRI variables to predict outcome in patients with herniated disc-related sciatica, and whether MRI could facilitate the decision making between early surgery and prolonged conservative care in these patients. METHODS A prospective observational evaluation of patients enrolled in a randomized trial with 1-year follow-up was completed. A total of 283 patients with sciatica who had a radiologically confirmed disc herniation were randomized either to surgery or to prolonged conservative care with surgery if needed. Outcome measures were recovery and leg pain severity. Recovery was registered on a 7-point Likert scale. Complete/near complete recovery was considered a satisfactory outcome. Leg pain severity was measured on a 0- to 100-mm visual analog scale. Multiple MRI characteristics of the degenerated disc herniation were independently scored by 3 spine experts. Cox models were used to study the influence of MRI variables on rate of recovery, and linear mixed models were used to determine the predictive value of MRI variables for leg pain severity during follow-up. The interaction of each MRI predictor with treatment allocation was tested. There were no study-specific conflicts of interest. RESULTS Baseline MRI variables associated with less leg pain severity were the reader's assessment of presence of nerve root compression (p < 0.001), and assessment of extrusion compared with protrusion of the disc herniation (p = 0.006). Both variables tended to be associated, but not significantly, with satisfactory outcome during follow-up (HR 1.45, 95% CI 0.93-2.24, and HR 1.24, 95% CI 0.96-1.61, respectively). The size of disc herniation at baseline was not associated with outcome. There was no significant change in the effects between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS MRI assessment of the presence of nerve root compression and extrusion of a herniated disc at baseline was associated with less leg pain during 1-year follow-up, irrespective of a surgical or conservative treatment. MRI findings seem not to be helpful in determining which patients might fare better with early surgery compared with a strategy of prolonged conservative care. Clinical trial registration no.: ISRCTN26872154 ( controlled-trials.com ).

Older Age and Leg Pain Are Good Predictors of Pain and Disability Outcomes in 2710 Patients Who Receive Lumbar Fusion

BACKGROUND

Identifying appropriate candidates for lumbar spine fusion is a challenging and controversial topic. The purpose of this study was to identify baseline characteristics related to poor/favorable outcomes at 1 year for a patient who received lumbar spine fusion.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

The aims of this study were to describe baseline characteristics of those who received lumbar surgery and to identify baseline characteristics from a spine repository that were related to poor and favorable pain and disability outcomes for patient who received lumbar fusion (with or without decompression), who were followed up for 1 full year and discriminate predictor variables that were either or in contrast to prognostic variables reported in the literature.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 2710 patients who underwent lumbar spine fusion. All patient data was part of a multicenter, multi-national spine repository. Ten relatively commonly captured data variables were used as predictors for the study. Univariate/multivariate logistic regression analyses were run against outcome variables of pain/disability.

RESULTS

Multiple univariate findings were associated with pain/disability outcomes at 1 year including age, previous surgical history, baseline disability, baseline pain, baseline quality of life scores, and leg pain greater than back pain. Notably significant multivariate findings for both pain and disability include older age, previous surgical history, and baseline mental summary scores, disability, and pain.

CONCLUSION

Leg pain greater than back pain and older age may yield promising value when predicting positive outcomes. Other significant findings may yield less value since these findings are similar to those that are considered to be prognostic regardless of intervention type.

Surgery or physical activity in the management of sciatica: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Previous reviews have compared surgical to non-surgical management of sciatica, but have overlooked the specific comparison between surgery and physical activity-based interventions.

METHODS

Systematic review using MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase and PEDro databases was conducted. Randomised controlled trials comparing surgery to physical activity, where patients were experiencing the three most common causes of sciatica-disc herniation, spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis. Two independent reviewers extracted pain and disability data (converted to a common 0-100 scale) and assessed methodological quality using the PEDro scale. The size of the effects was estimated for each outcome at three different time points, with a random effects model adopted and the GRADE approach used in summary conclusions.

RESULTS

Twelve trials were included. In the short term, surgery provided better outcomes than physical activity for disc herniation: disability [WMD -9.00 (95 % CI -13.73, -4.27)], leg pain [WMD -16.01 (95 % CI -23.00, -9.02)] and back pain [WMD -12.44 (95 % CI -17.76, -7.09)]; for spondylolisthesis: disability [WMD -14.60 (95 % CI -17.12, -12.08)], leg pain [WMD -35.00 (95 % CI -39.66, -30.34)] and back pain [WMD -20.00 (95 % CI -24.66, -15.34)] and spinal stenosis: disability [WMD -11.39 (95 % CI -17.31, -5.46)], leg pain [WMD, -27.17 (95 % CI -35.87, -18.46)] and back pain [WMD -20.80 (95 % CI -25.15, -16.44)]. Long-term and greater than 2-year post-randomisation results favoured surgery for spondylolisthesis and stenosis, although the size of the effects reduced with time. For disc herniation, no significant effect was shown for leg and back pain comparing surgery to physical activity.

CONCLUSION

There are indications that surgery is superior to physical activity-based interventions in reducing pain and disability for disc herniation at short-term follow-up only; but high-quality evidence in this field is lacking (GRADE). For spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis, surgery is superior to physical activity up to greater than 2 years follow-up. Results should guide clinicians and patients when facing the difficult decision of having surgery or engaging in active care interventions. PROSPERO registration number : CRD42013005746.

Nonoperative treatment for lumbosacral radiculopathy: what factors predict treatment failure?

BACKGROUND

Prior studies of nonoperative treatment for lumbosacral radiculopathy have identified potential predictors of treatment failure, defined by persistent pain, persistent disability, lack of recovery, or subsequent surgery. However, few predictors have been replicated, with the exception of higher leg pain intensity, as a predictor of subsequent surgery.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We asked two research questions: (1) Does higher baseline leg pain intensity predict subsequent lumbar surgery? (2) Can other previously identified "candidate" predictors of nonoperative treatment failure be replicated?

METHODS

Between January 2008 and March 2009, 154 participants with acute lumbosacral radicular pain were enrolled in a prospective database; 128 participants (83%) received nonoperative treatment and 26 (17%) received surgery over 2-year followup. Ninety-four nonoperative participants (73%) responded to followup questionnaires. We examined associations between previously identified "candidate" predictors and treatment failure defined as (1) subsequent surgery; (2) persistent leg pain on a visual analog scale; (3) persistent disability on the Oswestry Disability Index; or (4) participant-reported lack of recovery over 2-year followup. Confounding variables including sociodemographics, clinical factors, and imaging characteristics were evaluated using an exploratory bivariate analysis followed by a multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

With the numbers available, higher baseline leg pain intensity was not an independent predictor of subsequent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.22 per point of baseline leg pain; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.53; p = 0.08). Prior low back pain (aOR, 4.79; 95% CI, 1.01-22.7; p = 0.05) and a positive straight leg raise test (aOR, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.60-11.9; p = 0.004) predicted subsequent surgery. Workers compensation claims predicted persistent leg pain (aOR, 9.04; 95% CI, 1.01-81; p = 0.05) and disability (aOR, 5.99; 95% CI, 1.09-32.7; p = 0.04). Female sex predicted persistent disability (aOR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.03-9.69; p = 0.05) and perceived lack of recovery (aOR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.02-5.84; p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher baseline leg pain intensity was not confirmed as a predictor of subsequent surgery. However, the directionality of the association seen was consistent with prior reports, suggesting Type II error as a possible explanation; larger studies are needed to further examine this relationship. Clinicians should be aware of potential factors that may predict nonoperative treatment failure, including prior low back pain or a positive straight leg raise test as predictors of subsequent surgery, workers compensation claims as predictors of persistent leg pain and disability, and female sex as a predictor of persistent disability and lack of recovery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Outcome prediction in chronic unilateral lumbar radiculopathy: prospective cohort study

Background

Identification of prognostic factors for persistent pain and disability are important for better understanding of the clinical course of chronic unilateral lumbar radiculopathy and to assist clinical decision-making. There is a lack of scientific evidence concerning prognostic factors. The aim of this study was to identify clinically relevant predictors for outcome at 52 weeks.

Methods

116 patients were included in a sham controlled clinical trial on epidural injection of glucocorticoids in patients with chronic unilateral lumbar radiculopathy. Success at follow-up was ≤17.5 for visual analogue scale (VAS) leg pain, ≤22.5 for VAS back pain and ≤20 for Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Fifteen clinically relevant variables included demographic, psychosocial, clinical and radiological data and were analysed using a logistic multivariable regression analysis.

Results

At follow-up, 75 (64.7%) patients had reached a successful outcome with an ODI score ≤20, 54 (46.6%) with a VAS leg pain score ≤17.5, and 47 (40.5%) with a VAS back pain score ≤22.5.

Lower age (OR 0.94 (CI 0.89–0.99) for each year decrease in age) and FABQ Work ≥34 (OR 0.16 (CI 0.04-0.61)) were independent variables predicting a successful outcome on the ODI.

Higher education (OR 5.77 (CI 1.46–22.87)) and working full-time (OR 2.70 (CI 1.02–7.18)) were statistically significant (P <0.05) independent predictors for successful outcome (VAS score ≤17.5) on the measure of leg pain. Lower age predicted success on ODI (OR 0.94 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.99) for each year) and less back pain (OR 0.94 (0.90 to 0.99)), while higher education (OR 5.77 (1.46 to 22.87)), working full-time (OR 2.70 (1.02 to 7.18)) and muscle weakness at baseline (OR 4.11 (1.24 to 13.61) predicted less leg pain, and reflex impairment at baseline predicted the contrary (OR 0.39 (0.15 to 0.97)).

Conclusions

Lower age, higher education, working full-time and low fear avoidance beliefs each predict a better outcome of chronic unilateral lumbar radiculopathy. Specifically, lower age and low fear avoidance predict a better functional outcome and less back pain, while higher education and working full-time predict less leg pain. These results should be validated in further studies before being used to inform patients.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12574253. Registered 18 May 2005.

Pulsed radiofrequency for chronic intractable lumbosacral radicular pain: a six-month cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There is little evidence concerning the medical management of lumbosacral radicular pain. The prognosis for patients suffering pain for more than 3 months is poor. Pulsed radiofrequency (PRF) treatment of the dorsal root ganglion (DRG) has been suggested as a minimally invasive treatment. We studied the effect on pain and quality of life of PRF treatment of the DRG in patients with chronic, severe lumbosacral radicular pain.

METHODS

Patients with lumbosacral radicular pain were screened to select a homogeneous population. PRF treatment of the DRG was performed at L5 or S1. Evaluation was carried out at 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. Pain reduction and "fully recovered" or "much improvement," in terms of the global perceived effect, were the primary outcomes. Quality of life (RAND-36), disability (Oswestry Disability Index), and the neuropathic pain scales leeds assessment of neuropathic symptoms and signs (LANSS) and DN4 were registered at each time point. Medication use was scored with the Medication Quantification Scale.

RESULTS

Out of 461 screened patients, 65 were included. According to the intention to treat analysis, clinical success was achieved in 56.9%, 52.3%, and 55.4% of the patients at respectively 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. DN4, Oswestry Disability Index and physical component for the RAND-36 quality of life improved significantly while the mental component remained unchanged. The number of patients on opioids was reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

PRF treatment of the DRG may be considered for patients with chronic, severe lumbosacral radicular pain refractory to conventional medical management.