Transmission of monkeypox/mpox virus: A narrative review of environmental, viral, host, and population factors in relation to the 2022 international outbreak

Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022-2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the primary transmission route of the disease. In addition, the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected by the outbreak. This population is also disproportionately affected by HIV infection. Given that both diseases can be transmitted sexually, the endemicity of HIV, and the high sexual behavior associated with the MSM community, it is essential to understand the effect of the two diseases spreading simultaneously in an MSM population. Particularly, we aim to understand the potential effects of HIV on an mpox outbreak in the MSM population. We develop a mechanistic mathematical model of HIV and mpox co-infection. Our model incorporates the dynamics of both diseases and considers HIV treatment with anti-retroviral therapy (ART). In addition, we consider a potential scenario where HIV infection increases susceptibility to mpox, and investigate the potential impact of this mechanism on mpox dynamics. Our analysis shows that HIV can facilitate the spread of mpox in an MSM population, and that HIV treatment with ART may not be sufficient to control the spread of mpox in the population. However, we showed that a moderate use of condoms or reduction in sexual contact in the population combined with ART is beneficial in controlling mpox transmission. Based on our analysis, it is evident that effective control of HIV, specifically through substantial ART use, moderate condom compliance, and reduction in sexual contact, is imperative for curtailing the transmission of mpox in an MSM population and mitigating the compounding impact of these intertwined epidemics.

CRISPR-based strategies for sample-to-answer monkeypox detection: current status and emerging opportunities

The global health threat posed by the Monkeypox virus (Mpox) requires swift, simple, and accurate detection methods for effective management, emphasizing the growing necessity for decentralized point-of-care (POC) diagnostic solutions. The clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), initially known for its effective nucleic acid detection abilities, presents itself as an attractive diagnostic strategy. CRISPR offers exceptional sensitivity, single-base specificity, and programmability. Here, we reviewed the latest developments in CRISPR-based POC devices and testing strategies for Mpox detection. We explored the crucial role of genetic sequencing in designing crRNA for CRISPR reaction and understanding Mpox transmission and mutations. Additionally, we showed the integration of CRISPR-Cas12 strategy with pre-amplification and amplification-free methods. Our study also focused on the significant role of Cas12 proteins and the effectiveness of Cas12 coupled with recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) for Mpox detection. We envision the future prospects and challenges, positioning CRISPR-Cas12-based POC devices as a frontrunner in the next generation of molecular biosensing technologies.

Mpox in UK households: estimating secondary attack rates and factors associated with transmission, May-November 2022

We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of mpox among UK household contacts and determine factors associated with transmission to inform public health management of contacts, during the global outbreak in 2022. Information was collected via NHS and public health services and included age, gender, place of residence, setting, and type of contact. Aggregate information was summarized for the UK. Record level data was combined for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with transmission. The secondary attack rate among UK household mpox contacts was 4% (60/1 526). Sexual contact with the index case was associated with a 11-fold increase in adjusted odds of becoming a case in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (95% CI 5.5-22, p < 0.001). Household contacts outside of London had increased odds compared to London residents (adjusted OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.6-5.4, p < 0.001), while female contacts had reduced odds of becoming a case (aOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.15-0.95). We found a low overall secondary attack rate among household mpox contacts with strong evidence of increased transmission risk associated with sexual contact. This evidence will inform the risk assessment of contacts and support prioritization of those with close intimate contact for follow up.

Preventive behavior intention for a viral outbreak among college students: The case of Mpox

OBJECTIVE

Examine college students' behavior intention to reduce viral outbreak transmission in the context of Mpox, and what preventive messaging strategies would be most effective in future transmissible disease outbreaks based on the Reasoned Action Approach (RAA).

PARTICIPANTS

Undergraduates at a mid-Atlantic U.S. University.

METHODS

An online survey (n = 266) conducted at the height of the recent Mpox outbreak in the U.S., asked about five target behaviors to reduce Mpox transmission, including RAA determinants for each behavior.

RESULTS

Highest intention was safe sex practices, lowest were vaccination and sexual abstinence, and sharing dishes and fabrics were in between. RAA determinants differed by target behavior, although attitudes were significantly positively associated with intention for all five behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

College students are potentially open to preventative behaviors to reduce viral transmission during an outbreak. However, specific target behavior matters and messaging should focus on differing RAA determinants depending on target behavior.

Clinical features and viral load variations of Mpox: a retrospective study in Chongqing, China

PURPOSE

Since May 2022, Mpox has spread extensively outside of Africa, posing a serious threat to the health of people globally, and particularly to the men who have sex with men (MSM) population. Chongqing, a province in Southwest China, has relatively large MSM and people living with HIV (PLWH) populations, presenting conditions conducive to the wide dissemination of Mpox. In this study, we investigated the clinical characteristics of Mpox patients among MSM and PLWH in Chongqing, aiming to inform the development of targeted prevention, control, and treatment strategies for Mpox.

METHOD

We evaluated the clinical characteristics, travel history, time of onset, distribution and number of skin lesions of Mpox patients admitted to the Chongqing Public Health Medical Center between September 2022 and October 2023. Meanwhile, a series of clinical samples were collected and the pathogen of interest was identified as Mpox virus using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The results were presented in the form of cycle thresholds (Ct), which help to approximate the quantification of viral load.

RESULTS

As of October 11, 2023, the Chongqing Public Health Medical Center reported a total of nine Mpox virus infections. All the patients identified were male and belonged to the MSM population, among whom seven (77.8%) were living with HIV, and maintained a preserved immune system while achieving viral suppression via effective ART. We observed no discernible clinical differences between MSM with Mpox with or without HIV, and no fatalities were recorded. Viral loads were observed to be higher in samples taken from the skin than those from the throat, nasopharynx, blood, or semen.

CONCLUSION

In this retrospective study, the clinical manifestations of MPXV infection appeared consistent among MSM patients, regardless of HIV status. Elevated MPXV viral loads in the skin and mucosal tissues, particularly at genital and anal sites, indicate that transmission is more likely to occur via direct physical contact as opposed to respiratory pathways or through exposure to bodily fluids.

Chemsex among men who have sex with men during the Mpox health crisis in Brazil: A nationwide web survey

OBJECTIVE

To understand the factors associated with the practice of chemsex among MSM in Brazil, especially during the Mpox health crisis, and to design effective prevention and intervention strategies specifically for this population.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional and analytical study using an electronic survey, conducted from September to December 2022, during the peak of the Mpox outbreak in Brazil.

SAMPLE

A total of 1452 MSM aged 18 and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were collected via the REDCap platform through a survey with 46 questions. These addressed demographic data, sexual affiliations, practices, experiences with Mpox, healthcare service usage, and stigma or fear related to Mpox.

RESULTS

The prevalence of chemsex was 19.42% (n = 282). Multivariate Poisson modeling indicated a high incidence of chemsex among those diagnosed with Mpox and those involved in high-risk behaviors. The practice of chemsex was six times higher among those diagnosed with Mpox (95% CI: 4.73-9.10). MSM who engage in bugchasing had a prevalence twice that of the main outcome (95% CI: 1.31-3.16).

CONCLUSION

There is a significant need for targeted interventions for MSM in Brazil, especially given the Mpox outbreak. This study highlights the strong relationships between chemsex, experiences with Mpox, and various sexual behaviors, underscoring the importance of effective public health initiatives.

The global patent landscape of emerging infectious disease monkeypox

BACKGROUND

Monkeypox is an emerging infectious disease with confirmed cases and deaths in several parts of the world. In light of this crisis, this study aims to analyze the global knowledge pattern of monkeypox-related patents and explore current trends and future technical directions in the medical development of monkeypox to inform research and policy.

METHODS

A comprehensive study of 1,791 monkeypox-related patents worldwide was conducted using the Derwent patent database by descriptive statistics, social network method and linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Since the 21st century, the number of monkeypox-related patents has increased rapidly, accompanied by increases in collaboration between commercial and academic patentees. Enterprises contributed the most in patent quantity, whereas the initial milestone patent was filed by academia. The core developments of technology related to the monkeypox include biological and chemical medicine. The innovations of vaccines and virus testing lack sufficient patent support in portfolios.

CONCLUSIONS

Monkeypox-related therapeutic innovation is geographically limited with strong international intellectual property right barriers though it has increased rapidly in recent years. The transparent licensing of patent knowledge is driven by the merger and acquisition model, and the venture capital, intellectual property and contract research organization model. Currently, the patent thicket phenomenon in the monkeypox field may slow the progress of efforts to combat monkeypox. Enterprises should pay more attention to the sharing of technical knowledge, make full use of drug repurposing strategies, and promote innovation of monkeypox-related technology in hotspots of antivirals (such as tecovirimat, cidofovir, brincidofovir), vaccines (JYNNEOS, ACAM2000), herbal medicine and gene therapy.

The Potential Relationship Between Cardiovascular Diseases and Monkeypox

Mpox, a novel epidemic disease, has broken out the period of coronavirus disease 2019 since May 2022, which was caused by the mpox virus. Up to 12 September 2023, there are more than 90,439 confirmed mpox cases in over 115 countries all over the world. Moreover, the outbreak of mpox in 2022 was verified to be Clade II rather than Clade I. Highlighting the significance of this finding, a growing body of literature suggests that mpox may lead to a series of cardiovascular complications, including myocarditis and pericarditis. It is indeed crucial to acquire more knowledge about mpox from a perspective from the clinical cardiologist. In this review, we would discuss the epidemiological characteristics and primary treatments of mpox to attempt to provide a framework for cardiovascular physicians.

Clinical Features and Follow-Up of the First Two Cases of Mpox From Trinidad and Tobago

Mpox is a viral zoonotic disease that is endemic in Central and West Africa and belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus. A global outbreak of mpox began in May 2022, mainly due to the transmission of the clade 11b virus through person-to-person contact with the lesions or scabs of a person infected with mpox. The data on mpox infection in the Caribbean is sparse. Here we report the clinical features and follow-up of the first two confirmed cases of mpox in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). Both patients were men who have sex with men (MSM) who presented with genital lesions and expressed concern about increased stigma towards their already marginalized community.

The Global Health Threat of Monkeypox Virus: Understanding Its Biology, Transmission, and Potential Therapeutic Interventions

Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus, shares its genus with Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, and Vaccinia virus (VACV), used for smallpox vaccination. While smallpox has been eradicated, MPXV and related poxviruses continue to pose a global health threat. Monkeypox (Mpox), similar in clinical presentation to smallpox but milder, is endemic in Central and West Africa. Sporadic outbreaks emphasize the potential for wider dissemination. Understanding their biology, transmission, immune evasion, and clinical features informs disease control strategies. The intersection of medical innovation and biotechnology with poxviruses underscores their importance in both disease and scientific advancement. Further research is essential to enhance prevention, management, and therapeutic interventions for these viruses.

Mpox DNA clearance in semen over 6-month follow-up

Sexual intercourse is a well-established way of transmission of mpox infection. However, it is still uncertain whether semen may represent a viral reservoir. The aim of the study was to evaluate the clearance of viral DNA in semen samples from individuals diagnosed with mpox infection over 6-month follow-up. This prospective, observational, single-center study was conducted at IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy, between May and October 2022 in 140 individuals who attended Sexual Health Clinic and diagnosed with mpox infection. Semen samples were collected and analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction assays. The baseline collection was performed in 64 (46%) of 140 men diagnosed with mpox infection. The viral DNA was detected in 43 (67%) with median cycle threshold (Ct) 34 (interquartile range [IQR] 31-36). The research was repeated in 32 (74%) and viral DNA clearance was observed in all within 6 months in a median time of 10.5 days (IQR 7-33). Viral clearance occurred in all tested individuals, mostly within 2 weeks since the first positive test. These findings suggest a transient presence of viral DNA in semen and do not support the hypothesis of reservoir. More studies on mpox DNA detection in semen with viral culture and extended follow-up are needed.

Emergence of mpox in the post-smallpox era-a narrative review on mpox epidemiology

BACKGROUND

The 2022 mpox outbreak drew global attention to this neglected pathogen. While most of the world was taken by surprise, some countries have seen this pathogen emerge and become endemic several decades prior to this epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

This narrative review provides an overview of mpox epidemiology since its discovery through the 2022 global outbreak.

SOURCES

We searched PubMed for relevant literature about mpox epidemiology and transmission through 28 February 2023.

CONTENT

The emergence of human mpox is intertwined with the eradication of smallpox and the cessation of the global smallpox vaccination campaign. The first human clade I and II monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections were reported as zoonoses in Central and West Africa, respectively, around 1970 with sporadic infections reported throughout the rest of the decade. Over the next five decades, Clade I MPXV was more common and caused outbreaks of increasing size and frequency, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Clade II MPXV was rarely observed, until its re-emergence and ongoing transmission in Nigeria, since 2017. Both clades showed a shift from zoonotic to human-to-human transmission, with potential transmission through sexual contact being observed in Nigeria. In 2022, clade II MPXV caused a large human outbreak which to date has caused over 86,000 cases in 110 countries, with strong evidence of transmission during sexual contact. By February 2023, the global epidemic has waned in most countries, but endemic regions continue to suffer from mpox.

IMPLICATIONS

The changing epidemiology of mpox demonstrates how neglected zoonosis turned into a global health threat within a few decades. Thus, mpox pathophysiology and transmission dynamics need to be further investigated, and preventive and therapeutic interventions need to be evaluated. Outbreak response systems need to be strengthened and sustained in endemic regions to reduce the global threat of mpox.

Perceptions and Knowledge of Public Towards Emerging Human Monkeypox in Yemen: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

The spread of monkeypox (mpox) worldwide poses a severe threat to human life. This virus leads to a disease with symptoms similar to smallpox in humans. To combat this threat, improving public knowledge and perception toward mpox is vital for public health preventive measures.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was carried out in Yemen from December 2022 to March 2023 to investigate public perception and knowledge of mpox. Individuals were approached through social media platforms using a convenient sampling approach. Linear regression was used to determine the association between participants' knowledge (dependent variable) and explanatory variables.

Results

A total of 853 individuals consented to take part in the study. A significant proportion of respondents had a low knowledge level (N=572, 67.06%). Most participants knew about the nature of the diseases (75%, n=641), transmission mode (78.1%, n=668), hand sanitizer preventive measures, and skin- related symptoms. However, only 20.8% (n= 178) knew that diarrhea is not a symptom, and 25.4% (n= 217) knew antibiotics are unnecessary for mpox management. A proportion of 57.7% (n=492) of the participants feared human mpox, and 47.7% (n= 407) thought it was a conspiracy. Most participants had a good perception of local and international health authorities controlling the disease. Age, education level, having a health-related certificate, and receiving a 2-dose vaccination for COVID-19 had statistically significant associations with mpox knowledge level (P < 0.05). Social media platforms were the most often used information source about mpox (78.3%, n= 668), followed by articles (41.1%, n=351).

Conclusion

The study reveals a low public knowledge about mpox in Yemen, emphasizing the need for targeted educational campaigns, especially via social media, to strengthen public health measures and disease control. Addressing Knowledge gaps and correcting misconceptions is crucial for improving preparedness and response to the disease.

Characteristics of Mpox Infections in Louisiana in the 2022 Outbreak

The 2022 outbreak of mpox in Louisiana was limited to just >300 cases, perhaps an unexpected outcome given the state's high rates of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We aimed to describe the local outbreak within two health centers in the New Orleans region, partnering with the Louisiana Department of Health to offer additional statewide data. We reviewed charts of persons testing positive for mpox in New Orleans from July to November 2022 at two local health centers that together accounted for half of local cases. We abstracted data on HIV status, immune function [CD4 count, viral load (VL)], antiretroviral therapy regimen, symptoms and severity of infection, vaccination status, and whether tecovirimat was administered. We present local data relative to statewide data (July 2022-January 2023). Of 103 individuals in our network for whom charts were reviewed, 96 (93%) identified as male, 52 (50%) were Black, and 69 (67%) had HIV, including 12 (17%) with uncontrolled HIV (CD4 < 200 cells/mm3 or VL >200 copies/mL). The most common presenting symptoms were rash (n = 71, 69%), fever (n = 36, 35%), and rectal pain (n = 33, 32%). Of six (6%) patients hospitalized, four (67%) were persons with HIV (PWH). Two were hospitalized for severe mpox infection with >100 lesions at presentation; both were PWH, and one had uncontrolled infection. Across the state, 307 cases have been identified and 24 have been hospitalized. Of those hospitalized, 18 (75%) were PWH, including 9 (50%) with uncontrolled HIV. The demographic data from Louisiana, a state with high prevalence of STIs and HIV/AIDS, are consistent with prior reports describing the 2022 mpox outbreak. Our results contribute to accumulating data on the severity of infection in individuals with HIV-related immunocompromise.

Clinical features and diagnostic challenges of mpox (monkeypox) outbreak in Malta: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In May of 2022, an mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) outbreak was reported from countries where the disease is not endemic, rising worldwide concern. Malta, the smallest European Union member state, faced unique challenges, with high infection rates compared to the rest of Europe. The aim of the study is to describe the clinical characteristics, diagnostic challenges, and unique demographics of mpox patients diagnosed in Malta.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of medical records of all mpox cases recorded from May to September 2022. Demographic data, sexual behaviors and practices, travel history, comorbidities, and HIV status were investigated.

RESULTS

In the study period, we recorded 33 mpox cases, 97% of them were male, in the age group 30-39 (39%). Ninety percent were gay or bisexual men and 76% non-Maltese. The most common clinical presentations included skin rash (78%), lymphadenopathy (71%), anogenital lesions (67%), and fever (67%). Twenty-seven percent of the patients were people living with HIV. In terms of coinfection with STIs, 27% of patients tested positive for gonorrhea, 12% for syphilis, 15% for chlamydia, 9% for herpes simplex virus, and 3% for hepatitis C virus.

CONCLUSION

The results shed light on unique challenges faced by the local sexual health clinic and call for more resources in response to the global emerging of infectious diseases.

Molecular epidemiology, transmission and clinical features of 2022-mpox outbreak: A systematic review

Background and Aims

The 2022-mpox outbreak has spread worldwide in a short time. Integrated knowledge of the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and transmission of mpox are limited. This systematic review of peer-reviewed articles and gray literature was conducted to shed light on the epidemiology, clinical features, and transmission of 2022-mpox outbreak.

Methods

We identified 45 peer-reviewed manuscripts for data analysis. The standards of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) Statement and Cochrane Collaboration were followed for conducting the study.

Results

The case number of mpox has increased about 100 times worldwide. About 99% of the cases in 2022 outbreak was from non-endemic regions. Men (70%-98% cases) were mostly infected with homosexual and bisexual behavior (30%-60%). The ages of the infected people ranged between 30 and 40 years. The presence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections among 30%-60% of cases were reported. Human-to-human transmission via direct contact and different body fluids were involved in the majority of the cases (90%-100%). Lesions in genitals, perianal, and anogenital areas were more prevalent. Unusually, pharyngitis (15%-40%) and proctitis (20%-40%) were more common during 2022 outbreak than pre-2022 outbreaks. Brincidofovir is approved for the treatment of smallpox by FDA (USA). Two vaccines, including JYNNEOSTM and ACAM2000®, are approved and used for pre- and post-prophylaxis in cases. About 100% of the cases in non-endemic regions were associated with isolates of IIb clade with a divergence of 0.0018-0.0035. Isolates from B.1 lineage were the most predominant followed by B.1.2 and B.1.10.

Conclusion

This study will add integrated knowledge of the epidemiology, clinical features, and transmission of mpox.

Antivirals against Monkeypox (Mpox) in Humans: An Updated Narrative Review

As of 29 August 2023, a total of 89,596 confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) have been documented across 114 countries worldwide, with 157 reported fatalities. The Mpox outbreak that transpired in 2022 predominantly affected young men who have sex with men (MSM). While most cases exhibited a mild clinical course, individuals with compromised immune systems, particularly those living with HIV infection and possessing a CD4 count below 200 cells/mm3, experienced a more severe clinical trajectory marked by heightened morbidity and mortality. The approach to managing Mpox is primarily symptomatic and supportive. However, in instances characterized by severe or complicated manifestations, the utilization of antiviral medications becomes necessary. Despite tecovirimat's lack of official approval by the FDA for treating Mpox in humans, a wealth of positive clinical experiences exists, pending the outcomes of ongoing clinical trials. Brincidofovir and cidofovir have also been administered in select cases due to the unavailability of tecovirimat. Within the scope of this narrative review, our objective was to delve into the clinical attributes of Mpox and explore observational studies that shed light on the utilization of these antiviral agents.

Oral Infection, Oral Pathology and Salivary Diagnostics of Mpox Disease: Relevance in Dentistry and OMICs Perspectives

In this narrative review, we aim to point out the close relationship between mpox virus (MPXV) infection and the role of saliva as a diagnostic tool for mpox, considering the current molecular approach and in the perspective of OMICs application. The MPXV uses the host cell's rough endoplasmic reticulum, ribosomes, and cytoplasmic proteins to replicate its genome and synthesize virions for cellular exit. The presence of oral mucosa lesions associated with mpox infection is one of the first signs of infection; however, current diagnostic tools find it difficult to detect the virus before the rashes begin. MPXV transmission occurs through direct contact with an infected lesion and infected body fluids, including saliva, presenting a potential use of this fluid for diagnostic purposes. Currently available diagnostic tests for MPXV detection are performed either by real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) or ELISA, which presents several limitations since they are invasive tests. Despite current clinical trials with restricted sample size, MPXV DNA was detected in saliva with a sensitivity of 85%-100%. In this context, the application of transcriptomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, or proteomics analyses coupled with saliva can identify novel disease biomarkers. Thus, it is important to note that the identification and quantification of salivary DNA, RNA, lipid, protein, and metabolite can provide novel non-invasive biomarkers through the use of OMICs platforms aiding in the early detection and diagnosis of MPXV infection. Untargeted mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics reveals that some proteins also expressed in saliva were detected with greater expression differences in blood plasma when comparing mpox patients and healthy subjects, suggesting a promising alternative to be applied in screening or diagnostic platforms for mpox salivary diagnostics coupled to OMICs.

Monkeypox Patients Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Geographic and Temporal Variations

This index meta-analysis estimated the pooled prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among individuals with monkeypox (mpox) globally. We searched seven databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE, ProQuest, EBSCOHost, and Cochrane, for human studies published in English till 4 January 2023, as per International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration protocol (CRD42022383275). A random effects regression model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence owing to high heterogeneity. The risk of bias in the included studies was assessed using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) quality assessment tool. The systematic search yielded 677 articles; finally, 32 studies were found eligible for systematic review and 29 studies for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of HIV infection was 41% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35-48). All studies were rated as fair or good quality. Studies from Europe and North America reported a high prevalence of HIV infection among individuals with mpox- 41% (95% CI 33-49) and 52% (95% CI 28-76), respectively, while studies from Nigeria, Africa reported a relatively low prevalence of HIV infection of 21% (95% CI 15-26). A history of sexual orientation and sexual partners in the last 21 days must be taken from individuals with mpox to identify the potential source and contacts for quarantining and testing them.

Mpox and HIV: a Narrative Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We reviewed the available literature on mpox in People with HIV (PWH). We highlight special considerations of mpox infection related to epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnostic and treatment considerations, prevention, and public health messaging in PWH.

RECENT FINDINGS

During the 2022 mpox outbreak, PWH were disproportionally impacted worldwide. Recent reports suggest that the disease presentation, management, and prognosis of these patients, especially those with advanced HIV disease, can widely differ from those without HIV-associated immunodeficiency. Mpox can often be mild and resolve on its own in PWH with controlled viremia and higher CD4 counts. However, it can be severe, with necrotic skin lesions and protracted healing; anogenital, rectal, and other mucosal lesions; and disseminated organ systems involvement. Higher rates of healthcare utilization are seen in PWH. Supportive, symptomatic care and single or combination mpox-directed antiviral drugs are commonly used in PWH with severe mpox disease. Data from randomized clinical control trials on the efficacy of therapeutic and preventive tools against mpox among PWH are needed to better guide clinical decisions.

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

Objectives

The rising of new cases and death counts from the mpox virus (MPV) is alarming. In order to mitigate the impact of the MPV it is essential to have information of the virus's future position using more precise time series and stochastic models. In this present study, a hybrid forecasting system has been developed for new cases and death counts for MPV infection using the world daily cumulative confirmed and death series.

Methods

The original cumulative series was decomposed into new two subseries, such as a trend component and a stochastic series using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. To assess the efficacy of the proposed models, a comparative analysis with several widely recognized benchmark models, including auto-regressive (AR) model, auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model, non-parametric auto-regressive (NPAR) model and artificial neural network (ANN), was performed.

Results

The introduction of two novel hybrid models, HPF 1 1 and HPF 3 4 , which demonstrated superior performance compared to all other models, as evidenced by their remarkable results in key performance indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), is a significant advancement in disease prediction.

Conclusion

The new models developed can be implemented in forecasting other diseases in the future. To address the current situation effectively, governments and stakeholders must implement significant changes to ensure strict adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) by the public. Given the anticipated continuation of increasing trends in the coming days, these measures are essential for mitigating the impact of the outbreak.

The Emergence of Mpox: Epidemiology and Current Therapeutic Options

The world recently witnessed the emergence of new epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19 and mpox. The 2022 outbreak of mpox amid COVID-19 presents an intricate situation and requires strategies to combat the status quo. Some of the challenges to controlling an epidemic include present knowledge of the disease, available treatment options, appropriate health infrastructures facilities, current scientific methods, operations concepts, availability of technical staff, financial funds, and lastly international policies to control an epidemic state. These insufficiencies often hinder the control of disease spread and jeopardize the health of countless people. Also, disease outbreaks often put a huge burden on the developing economies. These countries are the worst affected and are immensely dependent on assistance provided from the larger economies to control such outbreaks. The first case of mpox was reported in the 1970s and several outbreaks were detected thereafter in the endemic areas eventually leading to the recent outbreak. Approximately, more than 80,000 individuals were infected, and 110 countries were affected by this outbreak. Yet, no definite vaccines and drugs are available to date. The lack of human clinical trials affected thousands of individuals in availing definite disease management. This paper focuses on the epidemiology of mpox, scientific concepts, and treatment options including future treatment modalities for mpox.