Rhabdomyolysis, acute kidney injury, and mortality in Ebola virus disease: retrospective analysis of cases from Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019

BACKGROUND

Skeletal muscle injury in Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been reported, but its association with morbidity and mortality remains poorly defined.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients admitted to two EVD Treatment Units, over an eight-month period in 2019, during a large EVD epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

RESULTS

333 patients (median age 30 years, 58% female) had at least one creatine kinase (CK) measurement (total 2,229 CK measurements, median 5 (IQR 1-11) per patient). 271 patients (81%) had an elevated CK (>380U/L), 202 (61%) had rhabdomyolysis (CK>1,000 IU/L), and 45 (14%) had severe rhabdomyolysis (≥5,000U/L). Among survivors, the maximum CK level was median 1,600 (IQR 550 to 3,400), peaking 3.4 days after admission (IQR 2.3 to 5.5) and decreasing thereafter. Among fatal cases, the CK rose monotonically until death, with maximum CK level of median 2,900 U/L (IQR 1,500 to 4,900). Rhabdomyolysis at admission was an independent predictor of AKI (aOR 2.2 [95%CI 1.2-3.8], p=0.0065) and mortality (aHR 1.7 [95%CI 1.03-2.9], p=0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

Rhabdomyolysis is associated with AKI and mortality in EVD patients. These findings may inform clinical practice by identifying lab monitoring priorities and highlighting the importance of fluid management.

Co-Circulating Monkeypox and Swinepox Viruses, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2022

In September 2022, deaths of pigs manifesting pox-like lesions caused by swinepox virus were reported in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Two human mpox cases were found concurrently in the surrounding community. Specific diagnostics and robust sequencing are needed to characterize multiple poxviruses and prevent potential poxvirus transmission.

Effect of anti-Ebola virus monoclonal antibodies on endogenous antibody production in survivors of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The use of specific anti-Ebola virus therapy, especially monoclonal antibodies, has improved survival in patients with Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the effect of monoclonal antibodies on anti-Ebola virus antibody responses in survivors of the 2018-20 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

METHODS

In this observational prospective cohort study, participants were enrolled at three Ebola survivor clinics in Beni, Mangina, and Butembo (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Eligible children and adults notified as survivors of Ebola virus disease (ie, who had confirmed Ebola virus disease [RT-PCR positive in blood sample] and were subsequently declared recovered from the virus [RT-PCR negative in blood sample] with a certificate of recovery from Ebola virus disease issued by an Ebola treatment centre) during the 2018-20 Ebola virus disease outbreak were invited to participate in the study. Participants were recruited on discharge from Ebola treatment centres and followed up for 12-18 months depending on recruitment date. Routine follow-up assessments were done at 1, 3, 6, and 12-18 months after inclusion. We collected sociodemographic (age, sex, visit site), clinical (anti-Ebola virus drugs), and laboratory data (RT-PCR and Ct values). The primary outcome was the antibody concentrations against Ebola virus glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and 40-kDa viral protein antigens over time assessed in all participants. Antibody concentrations were measured by the multiplex immunoassay, and the association between anti-Ebola virus antibody levels and the relevant exposures, such as anti-Ebola virus disease drugs (ansuvimab, REGN-EB3, ZMapp, or remdesivir), was assessed using both linear and logistic mixed regression models. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04409405.

FINDINGS

Between April 16, 2020, and Oct 18, 2021, 1168 survivors were invited to participate in the Les Vainqueurs d'Ebola cohort study. 787 survivors were included in the study, of whom 358 had data available for antibody responses. 85 (24%) of 358 were seronegative for at least two Ebola virus antigens on discharge from the Ebola treatment centre. The antibody response over time fluctuated but a continuous decrease in an overall linear evolution was observed. Quantitative modelling showed a decrease in nucleoprotein, glycoprotein, and VP-40 antibody concentrations over time (p<0·0001) with the fastest decrease observed for glycoprotein. The probability of being seropositive for at least two antigens after 36 months was 53·6% (95% CI 51·6-55·6) for participants who received ansuvimab, 73·5% (71·5-75·5) for participants who received REGN-EB3, 76·8% (74·8-78·8) for participants who received remdesivir, and 78·5% (76·5-80·5) for participants who received ZMapp.

INTERPRETATION

Almost a quarter of survivors were seronegative on discharge from the Ebola treatment centre and antibody concentrations decreased rapidly over time. These results indicate that monoclonal antibodies might negatively affect the production of anti-Ebola virus antibodies in survivors of Ebola virus disease which could increase the risk of reinfection or reactivation.

FUNDING

The French National Agency for AIDS Research-Emergent Infectious Diseases-The French National Institute of Health and Medical Research, the French National Research Institute for Development, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

2020 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective genomic characterisation

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has had 15 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks, from 1976 to 2023. On June 1, 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of EVD in the western Équateur Province (11th outbreak), proximal to the 2018 Tumba and Bikoro outbreak and concurrent with an outbreak in the eastern Nord Kivu Province. In this Article, we assessed whether the 11th outbreak was genetically related to previous or concurrent EVD outbreaks and connected available epidemiological and genetic data to identify sources of possible zoonotic spillover, uncover additional unreported cases of nosocomial transmission, and provide a deeper investigation into the 11th outbreak.

METHODS

We analysed epidemiological factors from the 11th EVD outbreak to identify patient characteristics, epidemiological links, and transmission modes to explore virus spread through space, time, and age groups in the Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Trained field investigators and health professionals recorded data on suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including demographic characteristics, possible exposures, symptom onset and signs and symptoms, and potentially exposed contacts. We used blood samples from individuals who were live suspected cases and oral swabs from individuals who were deceased to diagnose EVD. We applied whole-genome sequencing of 87 available Ebola virus genomes (from 130 individuals with EVD between May 19 and Sept 16, 2020), phylogenetic divergence versus time, and Bayesian reconstruction of phylogenetic trees to calculate viral substitution rates and study viral evolution. We linked the available epidemiological and genetic datasets to conduct a genomic and epidemiological study of the 11th EVD outbreak.

FINDINGS

Between May 19 and Sept 16, 2020, 130 EVD (119 confirmed and 11 probable) cases were reported across 13 Équateur Province health zones. The individual identified as the index case reported frequent consumption of bat meat, suggesting the outbreak started due to zoonotic spillover. Sequencing revealed two circulating Ebola virus variants associated with this outbreak-a Mbandaka variant associated with the majority (97%) of cases and a Tumba-like variant with similarity to the ninth EVD outbreak in 2018. The Tumba-like variant exhibited a reduced substitution rate, suggesting transmission from a previous survivor of EVD.

INTERPRETATION

Integrating genetic and epidemiological data allowed for investigative fact-checking and verified patient-reported sources of possible zoonotic spillover. These results demonstrate that rapid genetic sequencing combined with epidemiological data can inform responders of the mechanisms of viral spread, uncover novel transmission modes, and provide a deeper understanding of the outbreak, which is ultimately needed for infection prevention and control during outbreaks.

FUNDING

WHO and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Clade I-Associated Mpox Cases Associated with Sexual Contact, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

We report a cluster of clade I monkeypox virus infections linked to sexual contact in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Case investigations resulted in 5 reverse transcription PCR-confirmed infections; genome sequencing suggest they belonged to the same transmission chain. This finding demonstrates that mpox transmission through sexual contact extends beyond clade IIb.

Impact of Ebola epidemics on the daily operation of existing systems in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: a brief review

AIMS

to provide insights into the recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks on different aspects of daily life in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and propose possible solutions.

METHODS

We collected information regarding the effects of EVD outbreaks on existing systems in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We searched the PubMed database using the terms "impact effect Ebola outbreak system", "Management Ebola Poor Resources Settings", "Health Economic Challenges Ebola" and "Economic impact Ebola systems." Only studies focusing on epidemiology, diagnostics, sequencing, vaccination, therapeutics, ecology, work force, governance, healthcare provision and health system, and social, political, and economic aspects were considered. The search included the electronic archives of EVD outbreak reports from government and partners.

RESULTS

EVD outbreaks negatively impacts the functions of countries. The disruption in activities is proportional to the magnitude of the epidemic and slows down the transport of goods, decreases the region's tourist appeal, and increases 'brain drain'. Most low- and medium-income countries, such as the DRC, do not have a long-term holistic emergency plan for unexpected situations or sufficient resources to adequately implement countermeasures against EVD outbreaks. Although the DRC has acquired sufficient expertise in diagnostics, genomic sequencing, administration of vaccines and therapeutics, clinical trials, and research activities, deployment, operation, and maintenance of these expertise and associated tools remains a concern.

LIMITATIONS

Despite the data search extension, additional reports addressing issues related to social aspects of EVD outbreaks in DRC were not retrieved.

CONCLUSION

National leadership has not yet taken the lead in strategic, operational, or financial aspects. Therefore, national leaders should double their efforts and awareness to encourage local fundraising, sufficient budget al.location, infrastructure construction, equipment provision, and staff training, to effectively support a holistic approach in response to outbreaks, providing effective results, and all types of research activities.

Exploring host-virus interaction to improve immunotherapy against Ebola virus

Recent immunological advances have led to the development of FDA-approved immunotherapies against Ebola virus (EBOV). However, patients with high viral loads have not seen as large a benefit as mild cases. Here we discuss areas of investigation that may lead to adjunctive immune therapy for patients with severe EBOV disease.

Emergence of mpox in the post-smallpox era-a narrative review on mpox epidemiology

BACKGROUND

The 2022 mpox outbreak drew global attention to this neglected pathogen. While most of the world was taken by surprise, some countries have seen this pathogen emerge and become endemic several decades prior to this epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

This narrative review provides an overview of mpox epidemiology since its discovery through the 2022 global outbreak.

SOURCES

We searched PubMed for relevant literature about mpox epidemiology and transmission through 28 February 2023.

CONTENT

The emergence of human mpox is intertwined with the eradication of smallpox and the cessation of the global smallpox vaccination campaign. The first human clade I and II monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections were reported as zoonoses in Central and West Africa, respectively, around 1970 with sporadic infections reported throughout the rest of the decade. Over the next five decades, Clade I MPXV was more common and caused outbreaks of increasing size and frequency, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Clade II MPXV was rarely observed, until its re-emergence and ongoing transmission in Nigeria, since 2017. Both clades showed a shift from zoonotic to human-to-human transmission, with potential transmission through sexual contact being observed in Nigeria. In 2022, clade II MPXV caused a large human outbreak which to date has caused over 86,000 cases in 110 countries, with strong evidence of transmission during sexual contact. By February 2023, the global epidemic has waned in most countries, but endemic regions continue to suffer from mpox.

IMPLICATIONS

The changing epidemiology of mpox demonstrates how neglected zoonosis turned into a global health threat within a few decades. Thus, mpox pathophysiology and transmission dynamics need to be further investigated, and preventive and therapeutic interventions need to be evaluated. Outbreak response systems need to be strengthened and sustained in endemic regions to reduce the global threat of mpox.

Congenital Mpox Syndrome (Clade I) in Stillborn Fetus after Placental Infection and Intrauterine Transmission, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2008

We report the autopsy pathology findings of a 21-week stillborn fetus with congenital mpox syndrome that occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2008. The fetus acquired mpox from the mother after intrauterine transplacental monkeypox virus transmission. We confirmed monkeypox virus infection in the mother, fetus, and placenta by using a monkeypox virus-specific quantitative PCR. Subtyping of the virus was not performed, but the mother and fetus were almost certainly infected with the clade I variant that was endemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo at the time. Risk for intrauterine infection appears to differ between virus clades, but clinicians should be aware of potential for intrauterine monkeypox virus transmission among pregnant persons during ongoing and future mpox outbreaks.

Cost-effectiveness of incorporating Ebola prediction score tools and rapid diagnostic tests into a screening algorithm: A decision analytic model

BACKGROUND

No distinctive clinical signs of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have prompted the development of rapid screening tools or called for a new approach to screening suspected Ebola cases. New screening approaches require evidence of clinical benefit and economic efficiency. As of now, no evidence or defined algorithm exists.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate, from a healthcare perspective, the efficiency of incorporating Ebola prediction scores and rapid diagnostic tests into the EVD screening algorithm during an outbreak.

METHODS

We collected data on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and prediction scores' accuracy measurements, e.g., sensitivity and specificity, and the cost of case management and RDT screening in EVD suspect cases. The overall cost of healthcare services (PPE, procedure time, and standard-of-care (SOC) costs) per suspected patient and diagnostic confirmation of EVD were calculated. We also collected the EVD prevalence among suspects from the literature. We created an analytical decision model to assess the efficiency of eight screening strategies: 1) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition for Ebola suspects, 2) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off, 3) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test, 4) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test, 5) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition, then QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 6) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 7) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, and 8) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to identify an algorithm that minimizes the cost per patient correctly classified. We performed a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our findings.

RESULTS

Our analysis found dual ECPS as a conditional test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm to be the most cost-effective screening algorithm for EVD, with an effectiveness of 0.86. The cost-effectiveness ratio was 106.7 USD per patient correctly classified. The following algorithms, the ECPS as a conditional test with an effectiveness of 0.80 and an efficiency of 111.5 USD per patient correctly classified and the ECPS as a joint test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm with an effectiveness of 0.81 and a cost-effectiveness ratio of 131.5 USD per patient correctly classified. These findings were sensitive to variations in the prevalence of EVD in suspected population and the sensitivity of the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this study showed that prediction scores and RDT could improve Ebola screening. The use of the ECPS as a conditional test algorithm and the dual ECPS as a conditional test and then the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm are the best screening choices because they are more efficient and lower the number of confirmation tests and overall care costs during an EBOV epidemic.

The Human Mpox Global Outbreak: Available Control Tools and the Opportunity to Break a Cycle of Neglect in Endemic Countries

The 2022 global outbreak of human Mpox (formerly monkeypox) virus (MPXV) infection outside of the usual endemic zones in Africa challenged our understanding of the virus's natural history, transmission dynamics, and risk factors. This outbreak has highlighted the need for diagnostics, vaccines, therapeutics, and implementation research, all of which require more substantial investments in equitable collaborative partnerships. Global multidisciplinary networks need to tackle MPXV and other neglected emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens to address them locally and prevent or quickly control their worldwide spread. Political endorsement from individual countries and financial commitments to maintain control efforts will be essential for long-term sustainability.

Sensitive poliovirus detection using nested PCR and nanopore sequencing: a prospective validation study

Timely detection of outbreaks is needed for poliovirus eradication, but gold standard detection in the Democratic Republic of the Congo takes 30 days (median). Direct molecular detection and nanopore sequencing (DDNS) of poliovirus in stool samples is a promising fast method. Here we report prospective testing of stool samples from suspected polio cases, and their contacts, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 10 August 2021 and 4 February 2022. DDNS detected polioviruses in 62/2,339 (2.7%) of samples, while gold standard combination of cell culture, quantitative PCR and Sanger sequencing detected polioviruses in 51/2,339 (2.2%) of the same samples. DDNS provided case confirmation in 7 days (median) in routine surveillance conditions. DDNS enabled confirmation of three serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks 23 days (mean) earlier (range 6-30 days) than the gold standard method. The mean sequence similarity between sequences obtained by the two methods was 99.98%. Our data confirm the feasibility of implementing DDNS in a national poliovirus laboratory.

Use of Mpox Multiplex Serology in the Identification of Cases and Outbreak Investigations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Human Mpox cases are increasingly reported in Africa, with the highest burden in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While case reporting on a clinical basis can overestimate infection rates, laboratory confirmation by PCR can underestimate them, especially on suboptimal samples like blood, commonly used in DRC. Here we used a Luminex-based assay to evaluate whether antibody testing can be complementary to confirm cases and to identify human transmission chains during outbreak investigations. We used left-over blood samples from 463 patients, collected during 174 outbreaks between 2013 and 2022, with corresponding Mpox and VZV PCR results. In total, 157 (33.9%) samples were orthopox-PCR positive and classified as Mpox+; 124 (26.8%) had antibodies to at least one of the three Mpox peptides. The proportion of antibody positive samples was significantly higher in Mpox positive samples (36.9%) versus negative (21.6%) (p < 0.001). By combining PCR and serology, 66 additional patients were identified, leading to an Mpox infection rate of 48.2% (223/463) versus 33.9% when only PCR positivity is considered. Mpox infections were as such identified in 14 additional health zones and 23 additional outbreaks (111/174 (63.8%) versus 88/174 (50.6%)). Our findings highlight the urgent need of rapid on-site diagnostics to circumvent Mpox spread.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and retrospective mortality in two African settings: Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

Although seroprevalence studies have demonstrated the wide circulation of SARS-COV-2 in African countries, the impact on population health in these settings is still poorly understood. Using representative samples of the general population, we evaluated retrospective mortality and seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Lubumbashi and Abidjan. The studies included retrospective mortality surveys and nested anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence surveys. In Lubumbashi the study took place during April-May 2021 and in Abidjan the survey was implemented in two phases: July-August 2021 and October-November 2021. Crude mortality rates were stratified between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods and further investigated by age group and COVID waves. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was quantified by rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) and laboratory-based testing (ELISA in Lubumbashi and ECLIA in Abidjan). In Lubumbashi, the crude mortality rate (CMR) increased from 0.08 deaths per 10 000 persons per day (pre-pandemic) to 0.20 deaths per 10 000 persons per day (pandemic period). Increases were particularly pronounced among <5 years old. In Abidjan, no overall increase was observed during the pandemic period (pre-pandemic: 0.05 deaths per 10 000 persons per day; pandemic: 0.07 deaths per 10 000 persons per day). However, an increase was observed during the third wave (0.11 deaths per 10 000 persons per day). The estimated seroprevalence in Lubumbashi was 15.7% (RDT) and 43.2% (laboratory-based). In Abidjan, the estimated seroprevalence was 17.4% (RDT) and 72.9% (laboratory-based) during the first phase of the survey and 38.8% (RDT) and 82.2% (laboratory-based) during the second phase of the survey. Although circulation of SARS-CoV-2 seems to have been extensive in both settings, the public health impact varied. The increases, particularly among the youngest age group, suggest indirect impacts of COVID and the pandemic on population health. The seroprevalence results confirmed substantial underdetection of cases through the national surveillance systems.

Community-based COVID-19 active case finding and rapid response in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Improving case detection and response

A community-based coronavirus disease (COVID-19) active case-finding strategy using an antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) was implemented in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to enhance COVID-19 case detection. With this pilot community-based active case finding and response program that was designed as a clinical, prospective testing performance, and implementation study, we aimed to identify insights to improve community diagnosis and rapid response to COVID-19. This pilot study was modeled on the DRC's National COVID-19 Response Plan and the COVID-19 Ag-RDT screening algorithm defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), with case findings implemented in 259 health areas, 39 health zones, and 9 provinces. In each health area, a 7-member interdisciplinary field team tested the close contacts (ring strategy) and applied preventive and control measures to each confirmed case. The COVID-19 testing capacity increased from 0.3 tests per 10,000 inhabitants per week in the first wave to 0.4, 1.6, and 2.2 in the second, third, and fourth waves, respectively. From January to November 2021, this capacity increase contributed to an average of 10.5% of COVID-19 tests in the DRC, with 7,110 positive Ag-RDT results for 40,226 suspected cases and close contacts who were tested (53.6% female, median age: 37 years [interquartile range: 26.0-50.0)]. Overall, 79.7% (n = 32,071) of the participants were symptomatic and 7.6% (n = 3,073) had comorbidities. The Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 55.5% and 99.0%, respectively, based on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction analysis, and there was substantial agreement between the tests (k = 0.63). Despite its limited sensitivity, the Ag-RDT has improved COVID-19 testing capacity, enabling earlier detection, isolation, and treatment of COVID-19 cases. Our findings support the community testing of suspected cases and asymptomatic close contacts of confirmed cases to reduce disease spread and virus transmission.

Head-to-head comparison of diagnostic accuracy of four Ebola virus disease rapid diagnostic tests versus GeneXpert® in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo outbreaks: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks have emerged in Central and West Africa. EVD diagnosis relies principally on RT-PCR testing with GeneXpert®, which has logistical and cost restrictions at the peripheral level of the health system. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) would offer a valuable alternative at the point-of-care to reduce the turn-around time, if they show good performance characteristics. We evaluated the performance of four EVD RDTs against the reference standard GeneXpert® on stored EVD positive and negative blood samples collected between 2018 and 2021 from outbreaks in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective and observational study in the laboratory on QuickNavi-Ebola™, OraQuick® Ebola Rapid Antigen, Coris® EBOLA Ag K-SeT, and Standard® Q Ebola Zaïre Ag RDTs using left-over archived frozen EDTA whole blood samples. We randomly selected 450 positive and 450 negative samples from the EVD biorepositories in DRC, across a range of GeneXpert® cycle threshold values (Ct-values). RDT results were read by three persons and we considered an RDT result as "positive", when it was flagged as positive by at least two out of the three readers. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity through two independent generalized (logistic) linear mixed models (GLMM).

FINDINGS

476 (53%) of 900 samples had a positive GeneXpert Ebola result when retested. The QuickNavi-Ebola™ showed a sensitivity of 56.8% (95% CI 53.6-60.0) and a specificity of 97.5% (95% CI 96.2-98.4), the OraQuick® Ebola Rapid Antigen test displayed 61.6% (95% CI 57.0-65.9) sensitivity and 98.1% (95% CI 96.2-99.1) specificity, the Coris® EBOLA Ag K-SeT showed 25.0% (95% CI 22.3-27.9) sensitivity and 95.9% (95% CI 94.2-97.1) specificity, and the Standard® Q Ebola Zaïre Ag displayed 21.6% (95% CI 18.1-25.7) sensitivity and 99.1% (95% CI 97.4-99.7) specificity.

INTERPRETATION

None of the RDTs evaluated approached the "desired or acceptable levels" for sensitivity set out in the WHO target product profile, while all of the tests met the "desired level" for specificity. Nevertheless, the QuickNavi-Ebola™ and OraQuick® Ebola Rapid Antigen Test demonstrated the most favorable profiles, and may be used as frontline tests for triage of suspected-cases while waiting for RT-qPCR confirmatory testing.

FUNDING

Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp/EDCTP PEAU-EBOV-RDC project.

Advancing detection and response capacities for emerging and re-emerging pathogens in Africa

Recurrent disease outbreaks caused by a range of emerging and resurging pathogens over the past decade reveal major gaps in public health preparedness, detection, and response systems in Africa. Underlying causes of recurrent disease outbreaks include inadequacies in the detection of new infectious disease outbreaks in the community, in rapid pathogen identification, and in proactive surveillance systems. In sub-Saharan Africa, where 70% of zoonotic outbreaks occur, there remains the perennial risk of outbreaks of new or re-emerging pathogens for which no vaccines or treatments are available. As the Ebola virus disease, COVID-19, and mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) outbreaks highlight, a major paradigm shift is required to establish an effective infrastructure and common frameworks for preparedness and to prompt national and regional public health responses to mitigate the effects of future pandemics in Africa.

Efficiency of Field Laboratories for Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak during Chronic Insecurity, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020

During the 10th outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale strategically positioned 13 decentralized field laboratories with dedicated equipment to quickly detect cases as the outbreak evolved. The laboratories were operated by national staff, who quickly handed over competencies and skills to local persons to successfully manage future outbreaks. Laboratories analyzed ≈230,000 Ebola diagnostic samples under stringent biosafety measures, documentation, and database management. Field laboratories diversified their activities (diagnosis, chemistry and hematology, survivor follow-up, and genomic sequencing) and shipped 127,993 samples from the field to a biorepository in Kinshasa under good conditions. Deploying decentralized and well-equipped laboratories run by local personnel in at-risk countries for Ebola virus disease outbreaks is an efficient response; all activities are quickly conducted in the field.

Development of Ebola virus disease prediction scores: Screening tools for Ebola suspects at the triage-point during an outbreak

BACKGROUND

The control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks relies on rapid diagnosis and prompt action, a daunting task in limited-resource contexts. This study develops prediction scores that can help healthcare workers improve their decision-making at the triage-point of EVD suspect-cases during EVD outbreaks.

METHODS

We computed accuracy measurements of EVD predictors to assess their diagnosing ability compared with the reference standard GeneXpert® results, during the eastern DRC EVD outbreak. We developed predictive scores using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach and constructed a clinical prediction score (CPS) and an extended clinical prediction score (ECPS). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), estimated the area under the ROC (AUROC) to assess the performance of scores, and computed net benefits (NB) to assess the clinical utility (decision-making ability) of the scores at a given cut-off. We performed decision curve analysis (DCA) to compare, at a range of threshold probabilities, prediction scores' decision-making ability and to quantify the number of unnecessary isolation.

RESULTS

The analysis was done on data from 10432 subjects, including 651 EVD cases. The EVD prevalence was 6.2% in the whole dataset, 14.8% in the subgroup of suspects who fitted the WHO Ebola case definition, and 3.2% for the set of suspects who did not fit this case definition. The WHO clinical definition yielded 61.6% sensitivity and 76.4% specificity. Fatigue, difficulty in swallowing, red eyes, gingival bleeding, hematemesis, confusion, hemoptysis, and a history of contact with an EVD case were predictors of EVD. The AUROC for ECPS was 0.88 (95%CI: 0.86-0.89), significantly greater than this for CPS, 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69-0.73) (p < 0.0001). At -1 point of score, the CPS yielded a sensitivity of 85.4% and specificity of 42.3%, and the ECPS yielded sensitivity of 78.8% and specificity of 81.4%. The diagnostic performance of the scores varied in the three disease contexts (the whole, fitting or not fitting the WHO case definition data sets). At 10% of threshold probability, e.g. in disease-adverse context, ECPS gave an NB of 0.033 and a net reduction of unnecessary isolation of 67.1%. Using ECPS as a joint approach to isolate EVD suspects reduces the number of unnecessary isolations by 65.7%.

CONCLUSION

The scores developed in our study showed a good performance as EVD case predictors since their use improved the net benefit, i.e., their clinical utility. These rapid and low-cost tools can help in decision-making to isolate EVD-suspicious cases at the triage point during an outbreak. However, these tools still require external validation and cost-effectiveness evaluation before being used on a large scale.

Virus kinetics and biochemical derangements among children with Ebolavirus disease

BACKGROUND

A paucity of data is available on virologic and biochemical characteristics of paediatric Ebolavirus disease (EVD), compared to adults.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review of children (<16 years old) and a comparator group of young adults (16-44 years) from two treatment centres during the 2018-2020 EVD epidemic in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Statistical methods included chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests (dichotomous and categorical variables), Mann-Whitney U-test (continuous variables), multivariable linear regression (for determinants of admission viral load), linear mixed-effects models (for analysis of longitudinal viral load), and Cox proportional hazard models (to examine risk factors for mortality).

FINDINGS

We included 73 children and 234 adults admitted from April to October 2019. Paediatric patients commonly had electrolytes imbalances: hypokalaemia in 26/73 (36%), hyperkalaemia in 38/73 (52%), and hyponatraemia in 54/73 (74%). Hypoglycaemia occurred in 20/73 (27%), acute kidney injury in 43/73 (59%), and rhabdomyolysis in 35/73 (48%). Biochemical abnormalities were detected in a similar proportion of children and adults. The viral load (VL, log₁₀ copies/mL) at admission (7.2 versus 6.5, p=0.0001), the peak viral load (7.5 versus 6.7, p=<0.0001), and the time for viraemia clearance (16 days versus 12 days, p=<0.0001) were significantly different in children. The duration of hospital stay was prolonged in children (20 versus 16 days, p=<0.0001). Risk factors for mortality in children were: VL >7.6 log₁₀copies/mL, alanine transaminase >525 U/L, C-reactive protein >100 mg/L, blood urea nitrogen >7.5 mmol/L, rhabdomyolysis, and.acute kidney injury.

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric EVD patients, like adults, experience multiorgan dysfunction with life-threatening electrolyte imbalances, hypoglycaemia, kidney injury, liver injury, and rhabdomyolysis. Paediatric patients have significantly higher VLs throughout the course of EVD than adults.

FUNDING

This study was not funded.

Monkeypox and Global Health Inequities: A Tale as Old as Time…

Infectious disease outbreaks can quickly become global in what has increasingly become a closely interconnected world, influenced by what is considered to be an unprecedented era of technological, demographic, and climatic change [...].

Investigation of and Strategies to Control the Final Cluster of the 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

On April 10, 2020, while the independent committee of the International Health Regulation was meeting to decide whether the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Demogratic Republic of Congo still constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a new confirmed case was reported in the city of Beni, the last epicenter of the epidemic. This study aimed to understand the source of this cluster and learn from the implemented control strategies for improved response in the future.

Methods

We conducted a combined epidemiological and genomic investigation to understand the origins and dynamics of transmission within this cluster and describe the strategy that successfully controlled the outbreak.

Results

Eight cases were identified as belonging to this final cluster. A total of 1028 contacts were identified. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that all cases belonged to the same cluster, the closest sequence to which was identified as a case from the Beni area with symptom onset in July 2019 and a difference of just 31 nucleotides. Outbreak control measures included community confinement of high-risk contacts.

Conclusions

This study illustrates the high risk of additional flare-ups in the period leading to the end-of-outbreak declaration and the importance of maintaining enhanced surveillance and confinement activities to rapidly control Ebola outbreaks.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Pregnancy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A 6-Country Retrospective Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Few data are available on COVID-19 outcomes among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where high-risk comorbidities are prevalent. We investigated the impact of pregnancy on SARS-CoV-2 infection and of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy to generate evidence for health policy and clinical practice.

METHODS

We conducted a 6-country retrospective cohort study among hospitalized women of childbearing age between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021. Exposures were (1) pregnancy and (2) a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test. The primary outcome for both analyses was intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Secondary outcomes included supplemental oxygen requirement, mechanical ventilation, adverse birth outcomes, and in-hospital mortality. We used log-binomial regression to estimate the effect between pregnancy and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Factors associated with mortality were evaluated using competing-risk proportional subdistribution hazards models.

RESULTS

Our analyses included 1315 hospitalized women: 510 pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2, 403 nonpregnant women with SARS-CoV-2, and 402 pregnant women without SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, pregnancy was associated with increased risk for ICU admission (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.42-4.01), oxygen supplementation (aRR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.44-2.42), and hazard of in-hospital death (adjusted sub-hazard ratio [aSHR]: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.08-3.70). Among pregnant women, SARS-CoV-2 infection increased the risk of ICU admission (aRR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.20-3.35), oxygen supplementation (aRR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.17-2.11), and hazard of in-hospital death (aSHR: 5.03; 95% CI: 1.79-14.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Among hospitalized women in SSA, both SARS-CoV-2 infection and pregnancy independently increased risks of ICU admission, oxygen supplementation, and death. These data support international recommendations to prioritize COVID-19 vaccination among pregnant women.

Field performance of three Ebola rapid diagnostic tests used during the 2018-20 outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective, multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has confronted 13 outbreaks of Ebola virus disease since 1976. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detecting viral antigens have been developed to circumvent difficulties encountered with RT-PCR for diagnosis in remote low-resource settings, but there is still uncertainty about their performance characteristics and usability during outbreaks. We aimed to assess the field performance of three antigen detection RDTs compared with the gold-standard Cepheid GeneXpert Ebola assay results.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, multicentre observational study using complete and de-identified databases of five mobile laboratories (managed by the Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale) to assess the performance of three Ebola virus disease RDTs (QuickNavi-Ebola, OraQuick Ebola Rapid Antigen Test, and Coris EBOLA Ag K-SeT rapid test) run on blood samples of patients with suspected Ebola virus disease in direct comparison with the Cepheid GeneXpert Ebola assay reference test during the 2018-20 outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of each test through generalised linear mixed models against the GeneXpert Ebola assay reference test and corrected for cycle threshold value and random site effects.

FINDINGS

719 (7·9%) of 9157 samples had a positive GeneXpert Ebola assay result. The QuickNavi-Ebola RDT had a sensitivity of 87·4% (95% CI 63·6-96·8) around the mean cycle threshold value and a specificity of 99·6% (99·3-99·8). The OraQuick Ebola Rapid Antigen Test had a sensitivity of 57·4% (95% CI 38·8-75·8) and specificity of 98·3% (97·5-99·0), and the Coris EBOLA Ag K-SeT rapid test had a sensitivity of 38·9% (23·0-63·6) against the GeneXpert Ebola assay reference and specificity of 97·4% (85·3-99·6). The QuickNavi-Ebola RDT showed a robust performance with good sensitivity, particularly with increasing viral loads (ie, low cycle threshold values), and specificity.

INTERPRETATION

The three RDTs evaluated did not achieve the desired sensitivity and specificity of the WHO target product profile. Although the RDTs cannot triage and rule out Ebola virus infection among clinical suspects, they can still help to sort people with suspected Ebola virus disease into high-risk and low-risk groups while waiting for GeneXpert Ebola assay reference testing.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Assessment of Clinical Outcomes Among Children and Adolescents Hospitalized With COVID-19 in 6 Sub-Saharan African Countries

IMPORTANCE

Little is known about COVID-19 outcomes among children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, where preexisting comorbidities are prevalent.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical outcomes and factors associated with outcomes among children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 in 6 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study was a retrospective record review of data from 25 hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda from March 1 to December 31, 2020, and included 469 hospitalized patients aged 0 to 19 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

EXPOSURES

Age, sex, preexisting comorbidities, and region of residence.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

An ordinal primary outcome scale was used comprising 5 categories: (1) hospitalization without oxygen supplementation, (2) hospitalization with oxygen supplementation, (3) ICU admission, (4) invasive mechanical ventilation, and (5) death. The secondary outcome was length of hospital stay.

RESULTS

Among 469 hospitalized children and adolescents, the median age was 5.9 years (IQR, 1.6-11.1 years); 245 patients (52.4%) were male, and 115 (24.5%) had comorbidities. A total of 39 patients (8.3%) were from central Africa, 172 (36.7%) from eastern Africa, 208 (44.3%) from southern Africa, and 50 (10.7%) from western Africa. Eighteen patients had suspected (n = 6) or confirmed (n = 12) multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Thirty-nine patients (8.3%) died, including 22 of 69 patients (31.9%) who required intensive care unit admission and 4 of 18 patients (22.2%) with suspected or confirmed multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Among 468 patients, 418 (89.3%) were discharged, and 16 (3.4%) remained hospitalized. The likelihood of outcomes with higher vs lower severity among children younger than 1 year expressed as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 4.89 (95% CI, 1.44-16.61) times higher than that of adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. The presence of hypertension (aOR, 5.91; 95% CI, 1.89-18.50), chronic lung disease (aOR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.65-5.37), or a hematological disorder (aOR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.04-9.24) was associated with severe outcomes. Age younger than 1 year (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [asHR], 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.87), the presence of 1 comorbidity (asHR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.72), and the presence of 2 or more comorbidities (asHR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.18-0.38) were associated with reduced rates of hospital discharge.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, high rates of morbidity and mortality were observed among infants and patients with noncommunicable disease comorbidities, suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination and therapeutic interventions are needed for young populations in this region.

Added value of an anti-Ebola serology for the management of clinically suspect Ebola virus disease patients discharged as negative in an epidemic context

Background

Survivors from Ebola virus disease (EVD) may be at the origin of EVD resurgence.

Methods

Simultaneous reactivity to at least 2 Ebola virus or Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) antigens was detected in 11 of 488 (2.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–4.0) suspected EVD patients who were discharged as negative after 2 consecutive negative tests during the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Results

After extrapolating the total number of individuals discharged as negative during the entire outbreak, we estimated a total of 1314 additional missed Ebola cases.

Conclusions

These findings emphasize the usefulness of an EBOV serology analysis and the importance of extending epidemic surveillance to clinically suspected cases who were discharged as negative.

A Multidisciplinary Investigation of the First Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Matadi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Early March 2019, health authorities of Matadi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alerted a sudden increase in acute fever/arthralgia cases, prompting an outbreak investigation. We collected surveillance data, clinical data, and laboratory specimens from clinical suspects (for CHIKV-PCR/ELISA, malaria RDT), semi-structured interviews with patients/caregivers about perceptions and health seeking behavior, and mosquito sampling (adult/larvae) for CHIKV-PCR and estimation of infestation levels. The investigations confirmed a large CHIKV outbreak that lasted February–June 2019. The total caseload remained unknown due to a lack of systematic surveillance, but one of the two health zones of Matadi notified 2686 suspects. Of the clinical suspects we investigated (n = 220), 83.2% were CHIKV-PCR or IgM positive (acute infection). One patient had an isolated IgG-positive result (while PCR/IgM negative), suggestive of past infection. In total, 15% had acute CHIKV and malaria. Most adult mosquitoes and larvae (>95%) were Aedes albopictus. High infestation levels were noted. CHIKV was detected in 6/11 adult mosquito pools, and in 2/15 of the larvae pools. This latter and the fact that 2/6 of the CHIKV-positive adult pools contained only males suggests transovarial transmission. Interviews revealed that healthcare seeking shifted quickly toward the informal sector and self-medication. Caregivers reported difficulties to differentiate CHIKV, malaria, and other infectious diseases resulting in polypharmacy and high out-of-pocket expenditure. We confirmed a first major CHIKV outbreak in Matadi, with main vector Aedes albopictus. The health sector was ill-prepared for the information, surveillance, and treatment needs for such an explosive outbreak in a CHIKV-naïve population. Better surveillance systems (national level/sentinel sites) and point-of-care diagnostics for arboviruses are needed.

Sachet water consumption as a risk factor for cholera in urban settings: Findings from a case control study in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo during the 2017-2018 outbreak

Background

Behavioural risk factors for cholera are well established in rural and semi-urban contexts, but not in densely populated mega-cities in Sub-Saharan Africa. In November 2017, a cholera epidemic occurred in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where no outbreak had been recorded for nearly a decade. During this outbreak, we investigated context-specific risk factors for cholera in an urban setting among a population that is not frequently exposed to cholera.

Methodology/Principal findings

We recruited 390 participants from three affected health zones of Kinshasa into a 1:1 matched case control study. Cases were identified from cholera treatment centre admission records, while controls were recruited from the vicinity of the cases’ place of residence. We used standardized case report forms for the collection of socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors. We used augmented backward elimination in a conditional logistic regression model to identify risk factors.

The consumption of sachet water was strongly associated with the risk of being a cholera case (p-value 0.019), which increased with increasing frequency of consumption from rarely (OR 2.2, 95% CI 0.9–5.2) to often (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.6–9.9) to very often (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0–16.7). Overall, more than 80% of all participants reported consumption of this type of drinking water. The risk factors funeral attendance and contact with someone suffering from diarrhoea showed a p-value of 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. No socio-demographic characteristics were associated with the risk of cholera.

Conclusions/Significance

Drinking water consumption from sachets, which are sold informally on the streets in most Sub-Saharan African cities, are an overlooked route of infection in urban cholera outbreaks. Outbreak response measures need to acknowledge context-specific risk factors to remain a valuable tool in the efforts to achieve national and regional targets to reduce the burden of cholera in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Cholera is a diarrheal disease caused by ingestion of the Vibrio cholerae bacterium. Outbreaks in urban areas are becoming increasingly frequent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Risk factors for cholera have been studied in rural settings but not sufficiently in urban areas. Understanding context-specific risk factors is key for successful outbreak response. During a cholera outbreak in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo we were able to identify a previously unknown behavioural risk factor of particular relevance in urban settings–the consumption of drinking water from plastic sachets. Water sachets are sold on the streets of all major cities in Sub-Saharan Africa. It requires biting off an edge and sucking out the water, and we think that external contamination of these sachets was an important transmission route in the Kinshasa outbreak. Water sachets are predominantly consumed by socio-economically disadvantaged groups who lack piped water supply in their homes and have poor access to sanitary infrastructure. This makes our findings particularly relevant because these are the very populations who are at increased risk of getting and transmitting cholera. Health messaging and response measures should include consumption of water sachets as a potential risk factor during future cholera outbreaks in urban low-resource settings.

Role of Wildlife in Emergence of Ebola Virus in Kaigbono (Likati), Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2017

After the 2017 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in Likati, a district in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we sampled small mammals from the location where the primary case-patient presumably acquired the infection. None tested positive for EBOV RNA or antibodies against EBOV, highlighting the ongoing challenge in detecting animal reservoirs for EBOV.

Molecular characterization of chikungunya virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Early 2019, a chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak hit the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Though seldomly deadly, this mosquito-borne disease presents as an acute febrile (poly)arthralgia often followed by long-term sequelae. Although Aedes aegypti is the primary vector, an amino acid substitution in the viral envelope gene E1 (A226V) is causing concern as it results in increased transmission by Aedes albopictus, a mosquito with a much wider geographical distribution. Between January and March 2019, we collected human and mosquito samples in Kinshasa and Kongo Central province (Kasangulu and Matadi). Of the patients that were tested within 7 days of symptom onset, 49.7% (87/175) were RT–qPCR positive, while in the mosquito samples CHIKV was found in 1/2 pools in Kinshasa, 5/6 pools in Kasangulu, and 8/26 pools in Matadi. Phylogenetic analysis on whole-genome sequences showed that the circulating strain formed a monophyletic group within the ECSA2 lineage and harboured the A226V mutation. Our sequences did not cluster with sequences from previously reported outbreaks in the DRC nor with other known A226V-containing ECSA2 strains. This indicates a scenario of convergent evolution where A226V was acquired independently in response to a similar selection pressure for transmission by Ae. albopictus. This is in line with our entomological data where we detected Ae. albopictus more frequently than Ae. aegypti in two out of three affected areas. In conclusion, our findings suggest that CHIKV is adapting to the increased presence of Aedes albopictus in DRC.

Integration of genomic sequencing into the response to the Ebola virus outbreak in Nord Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 1 August 2018, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared its tenth Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak. To aid the epidemiologic response, the Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale (INRB) implemented an end-to-end genomic surveillance system, including sequencing, bioinformatic analysis and dissemination of genomic epidemiologic results to frontline public health workers. We report 744 new genomes sampled between 27 July 2018 and 27 April 2020 generated by this surveillance effort. Together with previously available sequence data (n = 48 genomes), these data represent almost 24% of all laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus (EBOV) infections in DRC in the period analyzed. We inferred spatiotemporal transmission dynamics from the genomic data as new sequences were generated, and disseminated the results to support epidemiologic response efforts. Here we provide an overview of how this genomic surveillance system functioned, present a full phylodynamic analysis of 792 Ebola genomes from the Nord Kivu outbreak and discuss how the genomic surveillance data informed response efforts and public health decision making.

Ebola Virus Transmission Initiated by Relapse of Systemic Ebola Virus Disease

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo, EVD was diagnosed in a patient who had received the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a ZEBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-ZEBOV) (Merck). His treatment included an Ebola virus (EBOV)-specific monoclonal antibody (mAb114), and he recovered within 14 days. However, 6 months later, he presented again with severe EVD-like illness and EBOV viremia, and he died. We initiated epidemiologic and genomic investigations that showed that the patient had had a relapse of acute EVD that led to a transmission chain resulting in 91 cases across six health zones over 4 months. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

The Critical Need for Pooled Data on Coronavirus Disease 2019 in African Children: An AFREhealth Call for Action Through Multicountry Research Collaboration

Globally, there are prevailing knowledge gaps in the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among children and adolescents; and these gaps are especially wide in African countries. The availability of robust age-disaggregated data is a critical first step in improving knowledge on disease burden and manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children. Furthermore, it is essential to improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2 interactions with comorbidities and coinfections such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis, malaria, sickle cell disease, and malnutrition, which are highly prevalent among children in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health (AFREhealth) COVID-19 Research Collaboration on Children and Adolescents is conducting studies across Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa to address existing knowledge gaps. This consortium is expected to generate key evidence to inform clinical practice and public health policy-making for COVID-19 while concurrently addressing other major diseases affecting children in African countries.

Multiplex detection of antibodies to Chikungunya, O'nyong-nyong, Zika, Dengue, West Nile and Usutu viruses in diverse non-human primate species from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Epidemic arbovirus transmission occurs among humans by mosquito bites and the sylvatic transmission cycles involving non-human primates (NHPs) still exists. However, limited data are available on the extent in NHPs infections and their role. In this study, we have developed and validated a high-throughput serological screening tool to study the circulation of multiple arboviruses that represent a significant threat to human health, in NHPs in Central Africa.

Methodology/Principal findings

Recombinant proteins NS1, envelope domain-3 (DIII) for the dengue (DENV), yellow fever (YFV), usutu (USUV), west nile (WNV) and zika (ZIKV) and envelope 2 for the chikungunya (CHIKV) and o'nyong-nyong (ONNV) were coupled to Luminex beads to detect IgG directed against these viruses. Evaluation of test performance was made using 161 human sera of known arboviral status (66 negative and 95 positive). The sensitivity and specificity of each antigen were determined by statistical methods and ROC curves (except for ONNV and USUV). All NS1 antigens (except NS1-YFV), CHIKV-E2 and WNV-DIII had sensitivities and specificities > 95%. For the other DIII antigens, the sensitivity was low, limiting the interest of their use for seroprevalence studies. Few simultaneous reactions were observed between the CHIKV+ samples and the NS1 antigens to the non-CHIKV arboviruses. On the other hand, the DENV+ samples crossed-reacted with NS1 of all the DENV serotypes (1 to 4), as well as with ZIKV, USUV and to a lesser extent with YFV. A total of 3,518 samples of 29 species of NHPs from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were tested against NS1 (except YFV), E2 (CHIKV/ONNV) and DIII (WNV) antigens. In monkeys (n = 2,100), the global prevalence varied between 2 and 5% for the ten antigens tested. When we stratified by monkey’s biotope, the arboreal species showed the highest reactivity. In monkeys from Cameroon, the highest IgG prevalence were observed against ONNV-E2 and DENV2-NS1 with 3.95% and 3.40% respectively and in DRC, ONNV-E2 (6.63%) and WNV-NS1 (4.42%). Overall prevalence was low in apes (n = 1,418): ranging from 0% for USUV-NS1 to 2.6% for CHIKV-E2. However, a very large disparity was observed among collection site and ape species, e.g. 18% (9/40) and 8.2% (4/49) of gorillas were reactive with CHIKV-E2 or WNV-NS1, respectively in two different sites in Cameroon.

Conclusions/Significance

We have developed a serological assay based on Luminex technology, with high specificity and sensitivity for simultaneous detection of antibodies to 10 antigens from 6 different arboviruses. This is the first study that evaluated on a large scale the presence of antibodies to arboviruses in NHPs to evaluate their role in sylvatic cycles. The overall low prevalence (<5%) in more than 3,500 NHPs samples from Cameroon and the DRC does not allow us to affirm that NHP are reservoirs, but rather, intermediate hosts of these viruses.

In the last decades, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, usutu and dengue viruses have (re)-emerged in different parts of the world and many of these outbreaks occur in resource-limited countries with limited or under-equipped health facilities and where endemic malaria with very similar clinical symptoms confounds surveillance. Most arboviruses that circulate today likely originated in Africa where sporadic human outbreaks occur. In this work, we developed a serological tool that allows simultaneous detection of IgG antibodies to multiple arbovirus in a biological sample. With this highly sensitive and specific multiplex assay, we screened more than 3,500 samples collected from 29 species of monkeys and apes in Africa. We found a global IgG antibody prevalence of less than 5%. However, this seroprevalence varied by collection site, NPHs species and virus type. Given these findings, we concluded that African non-human primates are most likely not the reservoirs, but rather are intermediate hosts.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pregnancy on Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes in Africa: An AFREhealth Call for Evidence through Multicountry Research Collaboration

In the African context, there is a paucity of data on SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated COVID-19 in pregnancy. Given the endemicity of infections such as malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it is important to evaluate coinfections with SARS-CoV-2 and their impact on maternal/infant outcomes. Robust research is critically needed to evaluate the effects of the added burden of COVID-19 in pregnancy, to help develop evidence-based policies toward improving maternal and infant outcomes. In this perspective, we briefly review current knowledge on the clinical features of COVID-19 in pregnancy; the risks of preterm birth and cesarean delivery secondary to comorbid severity; the effects of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection on the fetus/neonate; and in utero mother-to-child SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We further highlight the need to conduct multicountry surveillance as well as retrospective and prospective cohort studies across SSA. This will enable assessments of SARS-CoV-2 burden among pregnant African women and improve the understanding of the spectrum of COVID-19 manifestations in this population, which may be living with or without HIV, TB, and/or other coinfections/comorbidities. In addition, multicountry studies will allow a better understanding of risk factors and outcomes to be compared across countries and subregions. Such an approach will encourage and strengthen much-needed intra-African, south-to-south multidisciplinary and interprofessional research collaborations. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health's COVID-19 Research Working Group has embarked upon such a collaboration across Western, Central, Eastern and Southern Africa.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 in Africa: Early Insights from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Little is known about the clinical features and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between March 10, 2020 and July 31, 2020 at seven hospitals in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Outcomes included clinical improvement within 30 days (primary) and in-hospital mortality (secondary). Of 766 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 500 (65.6%) were male, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 46 (34-58) years. One hundred ninety-one (25%) patients had severe/critical disease requiring admission in the intensive care unit (ICU). Six hundred twenty patients (80.9%) improved and were discharged within 30 days of admission. Overall in-hospital mortality was 13.2% (95% CI: 10.9-15.8), and almost 50% among those in the ICU. Independent risk factors for death were age < 20 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 6.62, 95% CI: 1.85-23.64), 40-59 years (aHR = 4.45, 95% CI: 1.83-10.79), and ≥ 60 years (aHR = 13.63, 95% CI: 5.70-32.60) compared with those aged 20-39 years, with obesity (aHR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.24-4.27), and with chronic kidney disease (aHR = 5.33, 95% CI: 1.85-15.35). In marginal structural model analysis, there was no statistically significant difference in odds of clinical improvement (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.53, 95% CI: 0.88-2.67, P = 0.132) nor risk of death (aOR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.35-1.20) when comparing the use of chloroquine/azithromycin versus other treatments. In this DRC study, the high mortality among patients aged < 20 years and with severe/critical disease is of great concern, and requires further research for confirmation and targeted interventions.

Responding to the Challenge of the Dual COVID-19 and Ebola Epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo-Priorities for Achieving Control

As of June 11, 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has reported 4,258 COVID-19 cases with 90 deaths. With other African countries, the DRC faces the challenge of striking a balance between easing public health lockdown measures to curtail the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and minimizing both economic hardships for large sectors of the population and negative impacts on health services for other infectious and noninfectious diseases. The DRC recently controlled its tenth Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, but COVID-19 and a new EVD outbreak beginning on June 1, 2020 in the northwest Équateur Province have added an additional burden to health services. Although the epidemiology and transmission of EVD and COVID-19 differ, leveraging the public health infrastructures and experiences from coordinating the EVD response to guide the public health response to COVID-19 is critical. Building on the DRC’s 40 years of experience with 10 previous EVD outbreaks, we highlight the DRC’s multi-sectoral public health approach to COVID-19, which includes community-based screening, testing, contact-tracing, risk communication, community engagement, and case management. We also highlight remaining challenges and discuss the way forward for achieving control of both COVID-19 and EVD in the DRC.

Rapid Confirmation of the Zaire Ebola Virus in the Outbreak of the Equateur Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Implications for Public Health Interventions

Ten days after the declaration of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, rapid identification of the species Zaire Ebola virus using partial gene amplification and nanopore sequencing backed up the use of the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus–Zaire Ebola virus vaccine in the recommended ring vaccination strategy.

Author Correction: Metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment for viral diagnostics and genomic surveillance

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment for viral diagnostics and genomic surveillance

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), the shotgun sequencing of RNA and DNA from clinical samples, has proved useful for broad-spectrum pathogen detection and the genomic surveillance of viral outbreaks. An additional target enrichment step is generally needed for high-sensitivity pathogen identification in low-titre infections, yet available methods using PCR or capture probes can be limited by high cost, narrow scope of detection, lengthy protocols and/or cross-contamination. Here, we developed metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment (MSSPE), a method for enriching targeted RNA viral sequences while simultaneously retaining metagenomic sensitivity for other pathogens. We evaluated MSSPE for 14 different viruses, yielding a median tenfold enrichment and mean 47% (±16%) increase in the breadth of genome coverage over mNGS alone. Virus detection using MSSPE arboviral or haemorrhagic fever viral panels was comparable in sensitivity to specific PCR, demonstrating 95% accuracy for the detection of Zika, Ebola, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever viruses in plasma samples from infected patients. Notably, sequences from re-emerging and/or co-infecting viruses that have not been specifically targeted a priori, including Powassan and Usutu, were successfully enriched using MSSPE. MSSPE is simple, low cost, fast and deployable on either benchtop or portable nanopore sequencers, making this method directly applicable for diagnostic laboratory and field use.

This study describes a new method that improves the sensitivity of viral detection compared with next-generation sequencing and enables the detection of emerging flaviviruses not specifically targeted a priori. Metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment is simple, low cost, fast and deployable on either benchtop or portable nanopore sequencers, making it applicable for diagnostic laboratory and field use.

A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Ebola Virus Disease Therapeutics

BACKGROUND

Although several experimental therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been developed, the safety and efficacy of the most promising therapies need to be assessed in the context of a randomized, controlled trial.

METHODS

We conducted a trial of four investigational therapies for EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where an outbreak began in August 2018. Patients of any age who had a positive result for Ebola virus RNA on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay were enrolled. All patients received standard care and were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to intravenous administration of the triple monoclonal antibody ZMapp (the control group), the antiviral agent remdesivir, the single monoclonal antibody MAb114, or the triple monoclonal antibody REGN-EB3. The REGN-EB3 group was added in a later version of the protocol, so data from these patients were compared with those of patients in the ZMapp group who were enrolled at or after the time the REGN-EB3 group was added (the ZMapp subgroup). The primary end point was death at 28 days.

RESULTS

A total of 681 patients were enrolled from November 20, 2018, to August 9, 2019, at which time the data and safety monitoring board recommended that patients be assigned only to the MAb114 and REGN-EB3 groups for the remainder of the trial; the recommendation was based on the results of an interim analysis that showed superiority of these groups to ZMapp and remdesivir with respect to mortality. At 28 days, death had occurred in 61 of 174 patients (35.1%) in the MAb114 group, as compared with 84 of 169 (49.7%) in the ZMapp group (P = 0.007), and in 52 of 155 (33.5%) in the REGN-EB3 group, as compared with 79 of 154 (51.3%) in the ZMapp subgroup (P = 0.002). A shorter duration of symptoms before admission and lower baseline values for viral load and for serum creatinine and aminotransferase levels each correlated with improved survival. Four serious adverse events were judged to be potentially related to the trial drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Both MAb114 and REGN-EB3 were superior to ZMapp in reducing mortality from EVD. Scientifically and ethically sound clinical research can be conducted during disease outbreaks and can help inform the outbreak response. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; PALM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03719586.).

Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts.

Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2019

INTRODUCTION

As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak.

METHODS

We collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018-2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks.

RESULTS

As of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013-2016 West African outbreak.

CONCLUSION

The difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak.