PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 1: goals, properties of the PhRMA dataset, and comparison with literature datasets

EANM guidance document: dosimetry for first-in-human studies and early phase clinical trials

The numbers of diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine agents under investigation are rapidly increasing. Both novel emitters and novel carrier molecules require careful selection of measurement procedures. This document provides guidance relevant to dosimetry for first-in human and early phase clinical trials of such novel agents. The guideline includes a short introduction to different emitters and carrier molecules, followed by recommendations on the methods for activity measurement, pharmacokinetic analyses, as well as absorbed dose calculations and uncertainty analyses. The optimal use of preclinical information and studies involving diagnostic analogues is discussed. Good practice reporting is emphasised, and relevant dosimetry parameters and method descriptions to be included are listed. Three examples of first-in-human dosimetry studies, both for diagnostic tracers and radionuclide therapies, are given.

A New Version of the Tissue Composition-Based Model for Improving the Mechanism-Based Prediction of Volume of Distribution at Steady-State for Neutral Drugs

In-vitro models are available in the literature for predicting the volume of distribution at steady-state (Vdss) of drugs. The mechanistic model refers to the tissue composition-based model (TCM), which includes important factors that govern Vdss such as drug physiochemistry and physiological data. The recognized TCM published by Rodgers and Rowland (TCM-RR) and a subsequent adjustment made by Simulations Plus Inc. (TCM-SP) have been shown to be generally less accurate with neutral compared to ionized drugs. Therefore, improving these models for neutral drugs becomes necessary. The objective of this study was to propose a new TCM for improving the prediction of Vdss for neutral drugs. The new TCM included two modifications of the published models (i) accentuate the effect of the blood-to-plasma ratio (BPR) that should cover permeated molecules across the biomembranes, which is lacking in these models for neutral compounds, and (ii) use a different approach to estimate the binding in tissues. The new TCM was validated with a large dataset of 202 commercial and proprietary compounds including preclinical and clinical data. All scenario datasets were predicted more accurately with the TCM-New, whereas all statistical parameters indicate that the TCM-New showed significant improvements in terms of accuracy over the TCM-RR and TCM-SP. Predictions of Vdss were frequently more accurate for the TCM-new with 83% within twofold error versus only 50% for the TCM-RR. And more than 95% of the predictions were within threefold error and patient interindividual differences can be predicted with the TCM-New, greatly exceeding the accuracy of the published models. Overall, the new TCM incorporating BPR significantly improved the Vdss predictions in animals and humans for neutral drugs, and, hence, has the potential to better support the drug discovery and facilitate the first-in-human predictions.

Quantitative Prediction of OATP-Mediated Disposition and Biliary Clearance Using Human Liver Chimeric Mice

Drug biliary clearance (CLbile) in vivo is among the most difficult pharmacokinetic parameters to predict accurately and quantitatively because biliary excretion is influenced by metabolic enzymes, transporters, and passive diffusion across hepatocyte membranes. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the use of Hu-FRG mice [Fah-/-/Rag2-/-/Il2rg-/- (FRG) mice transplanted with human-derived hepatocytes] to quantitatively predict human organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP)-mediated drug disposition and CLbile To predict OATP-mediated disposition, six OATP substrates (atorvastatin, fexofenadine, glibenclamide, pitavastatin, pravastatin, and rosuvastatin) were administered intravenously to Hu-FRG and Mu-FRG mice (FRG mice transplanted with mouse hepatocytes) with or without rifampicin as an OATP inhibitor. We calculated the hepatic intrinsic clearance (CLh,int) and the change of hepatic clearance (CLh) caused by rifampicin (CLh ratio). We compared the CLh,int of humans with that of Hu-FRG mice and the CLh ratio of humans with that of Hu-FRG and Mu-FRG mice. For predicting CLbile, 20 compounds (two cassette doses of 10 compounds) were administered intravenously to gallbladder-cannulated Hu-FRG and Mu-FRG mice. We evaluated the CLbile and investigated the correlation of human CLbile with that of Hu-FRG and Mu-FRG mice. We found good correlations between humans and Hu-FRG mice in CLh,int (100% within threefold) and CLh ratio (R2 = 0.94). Moreover, we observed a much better relationship between humans and Hu-FRG mice in CLbile (75% within threefold). Our results suggest that OATP-mediated disposition and CLbile can be predicted using Hu-FRG mice, making them a useful in vivo drug discovery tool for quantitatively predicting human liver disposition. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: OATP-mediated disposition and biliary clearance of drugs are likely quantitatively predictable using Hu-FRG mice. The findings can enable the selection of better drug candidates and the development of more effective strategies for managing OATP-mediated DDIs in clinical studies.

Predicting Maternal and Infant Tetrahydrocannabinol Exposure in Lactating Cannabis Users: A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling Approach

A knowledge gap exists in infant tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) data to guide breastfeeding recommendations for mothers who use cannabis. In the present study, a paired lactation and infant physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed and verified. The verified model was used to simulate one hundred virtual lactating mothers (mean age: 28 years, body weight: 78 kg) who smoked 0.32 g of cannabis containing 14.14% THC, either once or multiple times. The simulated breastfeeding conditions included one-hour post smoking and subsequently every three hours. The mean peak concentration (Cmax) and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC(0-24 h)) for breastmilk were higher than in plasma (Cmax: 155 vs. 69.9 ng/mL; AUC(0-24 h): 924.9 vs. 273.4 ng·hr/mL) with a milk-to-plasma AUC ratio of 3.3. The predicted relative infant dose ranged from 0.34% to 0.88% for infants consuming THC-containing breastmilk between birth and 12 months. However, the mother-to-infant plasma AUC(0-24 h) ratio increased up to three-fold (3.4-3.6) with increased maternal cannabis smoking up to six times. Our study demonstrated the successful development and application of a lactation and infant PBPK model for exploring THC exposure in infants, and the results can potentially inform breastfeeding recommendations.

Artificial intelligence for compound pharmacokinetics prediction

Optimisation of compound pharmacokinetics (PK) is an integral part of drug discovery and development. Animal in vivo PK data as well as human and animal in vitro systems are routinely utilised to evaluate PK in humans. In recent years machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a major tool for modelling of in vivo animal and human PK, enabling prediction from chemical structure early in drug discovery, and therefore offering opportunities to guide the design and prioritisation of molecules based on relevant in vivo properties and, ultimately, predicting human PK at the point of design. This review presents recent advances in machine learning and AI models for in vivo animal and human PK for small-molecule compounds as well as some examples for antibody therapeutics.

Integrating Forward and Reverse Translation in PBPK Modeling to Predict Food Effect on Oral Absorption of Weakly Basic Drugs

INTRODUCTION

Ketoconazole and posaconazole are two weakly basic broad-spectrum antifungals classified as Biopharmaceutics Classification System class II drugs, indicating that they are highly permeable, but exhibit poor solubility. As a result, oral bioavailability and clinical efficacy can be impacted by the formulation performance in the gastrointestinal system. In this work, we have leveraged in vitro biopharmaceutics and clinical data available in the literature to build physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for ketoconazole and posaconazole, to determine the suitability of forward in vitro-in vivo translation for characterization of in vivo drug precipitation, and to predict food effect.

METHODS

A stepwise modeling approach was utilized to derive key parameters related to absorption, such as drug solubility, dissolution, and precipitation kinetics from in vitro data. These parameters were then integrated into PBPK models for the simulation of ketoconazole and posaconazole plasma concentrations in the fasted and fed states.

RESULTS

Forward in vitro-in vivo translation of intestinal precipitation kinetics for both model drugs resulted in poor predictions of PK profiles. Therefore, a reverse translation approach was applied, based on limited fitting of precipitation-related parameters to clinical data. Subsequent simulations for ketoconazole and posaconazole demonstrated that fasted and fed state PK profiles for both drugs were adequately recapitulated.

CONCLUSION

The two examples presented in this paper show how middle-out modeling approaches can be used to predict the magnitude and direction of food effects provided the model is verified on fasted state PK data.

Quality Assurance of PBPK Modeling Platforms and Guidance on Building, Evaluating, Verifying and Applying PBPK Models Prudently under the Umbrella of Qualification: Why, When, What, How and By Whom?

Modeling and simulation emerges as a fundamental asset of drug development. Mechanistic modeling builds upon its strength to integrate various data to represent a detailed structural knowledge of a physiological and biological system and is capable of informing numerous drug development and regulatory decisions via extrapolations outside clinically studied scenarios. Herein, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is the fastest growing branch, and its use for particular applications is already expected or explicitly recommended by regulatory agencies. Therefore, appropriate applications of PBPK necessitates trust in the predictive capability of the tool, the underlying software platform, and related models. That has triggered a discussion on concepts of ensuring credibility of model-based derived conclusions. Questions like 'why', 'when', 'what', 'how' and 'by whom' remain open. We seek for harmonization of recent ideas, perceptions, and related terminology. First, we provide an overview on quality assurance of PBPK platforms with the two following concepts. Platform validation: ensuring software integrity, security, traceability, correctness of mathematical models and accuracy of algorithms. Platform qualification: demonstrating the predictive capability of a PBPK platform within a particular context of use. Second, we provide guidance on executing dedicated PBPK studies. A step-by-step framework focuses on the definition of the question of interest, the context of use, the assessment of impact and risk, the definition of the modeling strategy, the evaluation of the platform, performing model development including model building, evaluation and verification, the evaluation of applicability to address the question, and the model application under the umbrella of a qualified platform.

Insights into the mapping of green synthesis conditions for ZnO nanoparticles and their toxicokinetics

Research on ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) has broad medical applications. However, the green synthesis of ZnO NPs involves a wide range of properties requiring optimization. ZnO NPs show toxicity at lower doses. This toxicity is a function of NP properties and pharmacokinetics. Moreover, NP toxicity and pharmacokinetics are affected by the species type and age of the animals tested. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling offers a mechanistic platform to scrutinize the colligative effect of the interplay between these factors, which reduces the need for in vivo studies. This review provides a guide to choosing green synthesis conditions that result in minimal toxicity using a mechanistic tool, namely PBPK modeling.

An IQ Consortium Perspective on Connecting Dissolution Methods to In Vivo Performance: Analysis of an Industrial Database and Case Studies to Propose a Workflow

Assessment of bioperformance to inform formulation selection and development decisions is an important aspect of drug development. There is high demand in the pharmaceutical industry to develop an efficient and streamlined approach for better understanding and predicting drug product performance to support acceleration of clinical timelines. This manuscript presents an effort from the IQ Formulation Bioperformance Prediction Working Group composed of members from 12 pharmaceutical companies under the IQ Consortium to develop a database around the topic of formulation bioperformance prediction and report findings from the database analysis. Six case studies described in the manuscript demonstrate how bioperformance models were used to predict in vivo performance and to provide guidance addressing questions encountered during oral solid dosage form development. The case studies also described findings of a correlation between in vitro dissolution and in vivo performance and how dissolution data can be incorporated into physiologically based biopharmaceutical modeling. Finally, a workflow for how in vitro dissolution data can be utilized to predict clinical bioperformance of oral solid dosage forms is proposed.

PBPK Simulation-Based Evaluation of Ganciclovir Crystalluria Risk Factors: Effect of Renal Impairment, Old Age, and Low Fluid Intake

Dosing guidance is often lacking for chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to exclusion of such patients from pivotal clinical trials. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling supports model-informed dosing when clinical data are lacking, but application of these approaches to patients with impaired renal function is not yet at full maturity. In the current study, a ganciclovir PBPK model was developed for patients with normal renal function and extended to CKD population. CKD-related changes in tubular secretion were explored in the mechanistic kidney model and implemented either as proportional or non-proportional decline relative to GFR. Crystalluria risk was evaluated in different clinical settings (old age, severe CKD and low fluid intake) by simulating ganciclovir medullary collecting duct (MCD) concentrations. The ganciclovir PBPK model captured observed changes in systemic pharmacokinetic endpoints in mild-to-severe CKD; these trends were evident irrespective of assumed pathophysiological mechanism of altered active tubular secretion in the model. Minimal difference in simulated ganciclovir MCD concentrations was noted between young adult and geriatric populations with normal renal function and urine flow (1 mL/min), with lower concentrations predicted for severe CKD patients. High crystalluria risk was identified at reduced urine flow (0.1 mL/min) as simulated ganciclovir MCD concentrations exceeded its solubility (2.6–6 mg/mL), irrespective of underlying renal function. The analysis highlighted the importance of appropriate distribution of virtual subjects’ systems data in CKD populations. The ganciclovir PBPK model illustrates the ability of this translational tool to explore individual and combined effects of age, urine flow, and renal impairment on local drug renal exposure.

Global Analysis of Models for Predicting Human Absorption: QSAR, In Vitro, and Preclinical Models

Models intended to predict intestinal absorption are an essential part of the drug development process. Although many models exist for capturing intestinal absorption, many questions still exist around the applicability of these models to drug types like "beyond rule of 5" (bRo5) and low absorption compounds. This presents a challenge as current models have not been rigorously tested to understand intestinal absorption. Here, we assembled a large, structurally diverse dataset of ∼1000 compounds with known in vitro, preclinical, and human permeability and/or absorption data. In silico (quantitative structure-activity relationship), in vitro (Caco-2), and in vivo (rat) models were statistically evaluated for predictive performance against this human intestinal absorption dataset. We expect this evaluation to serve as a resource for DMPK scientists and medicinal/computational chemists to increase their understanding of permeability and absorption model utility and applications for academia and industry.

A mechanism-based pharmacokinetic model of remdesivir leveraging interspecies scaling to simulate COVID-19 treatment in humans

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak initiated the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulting in 42.9 million confirmed infections and > 1.1 million deaths worldwide as of October 26, 2020. Remdesivir is a broad-spectrum nucleotide prodrug shown to be effective against enzootic coronaviruses. The pharmacokinetics (PKs) of remdesivir in plasma have recently been described. However, the distribution of its active metabolite nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) to the site of pulmonary infection is unknown in humans. Our objective was to use existing in vivo mouse PK data for remdesivir and its metabolites to develop a mechanism-based model to allometrically scale and simulate the human PK of remdesivir in plasma and NTP in lung homogenate. Remdesivir and GS-441524 concentrations in plasma and total phosphorylated nucleoside concentrations in lung homogenate from Ces1c-/- mice administered 25 or 50 mg/kg of remdesivir subcutaneously were simultaneously fit to estimate PK parameters. The mouse PK model was allometrically scaled to predict human PK parameters to simulate the clinically recommended 200 mg loading dose followed by 100 mg daily maintenance doses administered as 30-minute intravenous infusions. Simulations of unbound remdesivir concentrations in human plasma were below 2.48 μM, the 90% maximal inhibitory concentration for SARS-CoV-2 inhibition in vitro. Simulations of NTP in the lungs were below high efficacy in vitro thresholds. We have identified a need for alternative dosing strategies to achieve more efficacious concentrations of NTP in human lungs, perhaps by reformulating remdesivir for direct pulmonary delivery.

Physiological-based pharmacokinetic modeling trends in pharmaceutical drug development over the last 20-years; in-depth analysis of applications, organizations, and platforms

We assess the advancement of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation (M&S) over the last 20 years (start of 2000 to end of 2019) focusing on the trends in each decade with the relative contributions from different organizations, areas of applications, and software tools used. Unlike many of the previous publications which focused on regulatory applications, our analysis is based on PBPK publications in peer-reviewed journals based on a large sample (>700 original articles). We estimated a rate of growth for PBPK (>40 fold/20 years) that was much steeper than the general pharmacokinetic modeling (<3 fold/20 years) or overall scientific publications (∼3 fold/20 years). The analyses demonstrated that contrary to commonly held belief, commercial specialized PBPK platforms with graphical-user interface were a much more popular choice than open-source alternatives even within academic organizations. These platforms constituted 81% of the whole set of the sample we assessed. The major PBPK applications (top 3) were associated with the study design, predicting formulation effects, and metabolic drug-drug interactions, while studying the fate of drugs in special populations, predicting kinetics in early drug development, and investigating transporter drug interactions have increased proportionally over the last decade. The proportions of application areas based on published research were distinctively different from those shown previously for the regulatory submissions and impact on labels. This may demonstrate the lag time between the research applications versus verified usage within the regulatory framework. The report showed the trend of overall PBPK publications in pharmacology drug development from the past 2 decades stratified by the organizations involved, software used, and area of applications. The analysis showed a more rapid increase in PBPK than that of the pharmacokinetic space itself with an equal contribution from academia and industry. By establishing and recording the journey of PBPK modeling in the past and looking at its current status, the analysis can be used for devising plans based on the anticipated trajectory of future regulatory applications.

Predictive Value of Microdose Pharmacokinetics

Phase 0 microdose trials are exploratory studies to early assess human pharmacokinetics of new chemical entities, while limiting drug exposure and risks for participants. The microdose concept is based on the assumption that microdose pharmacokinetics can be extrapolated to pharmacokinetics of a therapeutic dose. However, it is unknown whether microdose pharmacokinetics are actually indicative of the pharmacokinetics at therapeutic dose. The aim of this review is to investigate the predictive value of microdose pharmacokinetics and to identify drug characteristics that may influence the scalability of these parameters. The predictive value of microdose pharmacokinetics was determined for 46 compounds and showed adequate predictability for 28 of 41 orally administered drugs (68%) and 15 of 16 intravenously administered drugs (94%). Microdose pharmacokinetics were considered predictive if the mean observed values of the microdose and the therapeutic dose were within twofold. Nonlinearity may be caused by saturation of enzyme and transporter systems, such as intestinal and hepatic efflux and uptake transporters. The high degree of success regarding linear pharmacokinetics shows that phase 0 microdose trials can be used as an early human model for determination of drug pharmacokinetics.

Use of normalized prediction distribution errors for assessing population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model adequacy

Currently employed methods for qualifying population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (Pop-PBPK) model predictions of continuous outcomes (e.g., concentration-time data) fail to account for within-subject correlations and the presence of residual error. In this study, we propose a new method for evaluating Pop-PBPK model predictions that account for such features. The approach focuses on deriving Pop-PBPK-specific normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE), a metric that is commonly used for population pharmacokinetic model validation. We describe specific methodological steps for computing NPDE for Pop-PBPK models and define three measures for evaluating model performance: mean of NPDE, goodness-of-fit plots, and the magnitude of residual error. Utility of the proposed evaluation approach was demonstrated using two simulation-based study designs (positive and negative control studies) as well as pharmacokinetic data from a real-world clinical trial. For the positive-control simulation study, where observations and model simulations were generated under the same Pop-PBPK model, the NPDE-based approach denoted a congruency between model predictions and observed data (mean of NPDE =  - 0.01). In contrast, for the negative-control simulation study, where model simulations and observed data were generated under different Pop-PBPK models, the NPDE-based method asserted that model simulations and observed data were incongruent (mean of NPDE =  - 0.29). When employed to evaluate a previously developed clindamycin PBPK model against prospectively collected plasma concentration data from 29 children, the NPDE-based method qualified the model predictions as successful (mean of NPDE = 0). However, when pediatric subpopulations (e.g., infants) were evaluated, the approach revealed potential biases that should be explored.

Improving the Accuracy of Predicted Human Pharmacokinetics: Lessons Learned from the AstraZeneca Drug Pipeline Over Two Decades

During drug discovery and prior to the first human dose of a novel candidate drug, the pharmacokinetic (PK) behavior of the drug in humans is predicted from preclinical data. This helps to inform the likelihood of achieving therapeutic exposures in early clinical development. Once clinical data are available, the observed human PK are compared with predictions, providing an opportunity to assess and refine prediction methods. Application of best practice in experimental data generation and predictive methodologies, and a focus on robust mechanistic understanding of the candidate drug disposition properties before nomination to clinical development, have led to maximizing the probability of successful PK predictions so that 83% of AstraZeneca drug development projects progress in the clinic with no PK issues; and 71% of key PK parameter predictions [64% of area under the curve (AUC) predictions; 78% of maximum concentration (C_max) predictions; and 70% of half-life predictions] are accurate to within twofold. Here, we discuss methods to predict human PK used by AstraZeneca, how these predictions are assessed and what can be learned from evaluating the predictions for 116 candidate drugs.

Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Rodgers and Rowland Model for Prediction of Tissue: Plasma Partitioning Coefficients: Assessment of the Key Physiological and Physicochemical Factors That Determine Small-Molecule Tissue Distribution

In physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling, the large number of input parameters, limited amount of available data and the structural model complexity generally hinder simultaneous estimation of uncertain and/or unknown parameters. These parameters are generally subject to estimation. However, the approaches taken for parameter estimation vary widely. Global sensitivity analyses are proposed as a method to systematically determine the most influential parameters that can be subject to estimation. Herein, a global sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the key drug and physiological parameters influencing drug disposition in PBPK models and to potentially reduce the PBPK model dimensionality. The impact of these parameters was evaluated on the tissue-to-unbound plasma partition coefficients (Kpus) predicted by the Rodgers and Rowland model using Latin hypercube sampling combined to partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC). For most drug classes, PRCC showed that LogP and fraction unbound in plasma (fu_p) were generally the most influential parameters for Kpu predictions. For strong bases, blood:plasma partitioning was one of the most influential parameter. Uncertainty in tissue composition parameters had a large impact on Kpu and Vss predictions for all classes. Among tissue composition parameters, changes in Kpu outputs were especially attributed to changes in tissue acidic phospholipid concentrations and extracellular protein tissue:plasma ratio values. In conclusion, this work demonstrates that for parameter estimation involving PBPK models and dimensionality reduction purposes, less influential parameters might be assigned fixed values depending on the parameter space, while influential parameters could be subject to parameters estimation.

Animal simulations facilitate smart drug design through prediction of nanomaterial transport to individual tissue cells

Smart drug design for antibody and nanomaterial-based therapies allows optimization of drug efficacy and more efficient early-stage preclinical trials. The ideal drug must display maximum efficacy at target tissue sites, with transport from tissue vasculature to the cellular environment being critical. Biological simulations, when coupled with in vitro approaches, can predict this exposure in a rapid and efficient manner. As a result, it becomes possible to predict drug biodistribution within single cells of live animal tissue without the need for animal studies. Here, we successfully utilized an in vitro assay and a computational fluid dynamic model to translate in vitro cell kinetics (accounting for cell-induced degradation) to whole-body simulations for multiple species as well as nanomaterial types to predict drug distribution into individual tissue cells. We expect this work to assist in refining, reducing, and replacing animal testing, while providing scientists with a new perspective during the drug development process.

Prediction of Oral Bioavailability in Rats: Transferring Insights from in Vitro Correlations to (Deep) Machine Learning Models Using in Silico Model Outputs and Chemical Structure Parameters

Oral administration of drug products is a strict requirement in many medical indications. Therefore, bioavailability prediction models are of high importance for prioritization of compound candidates in the drug discovery process. However, oral exposure and bioavailability are difficult to predict, as they are the result of various highly complex factors and/or processes influenced by the physicochemical properties of a compound, such as solubility, lipophilicity, or charge state, as well as by interactions with the organism, for instance, metabolism or membrane permeation. In this study, we assess whether it is possible to predict intravenous (iv) or oral drug exposure and oral bioavailability in rats. As input parameters, we use (i) six experimentally determined in vitro and physicochemical endpoints, namely, membrane permeation, free fraction, metabolic stability, solubility, pK_a value, and lipophilicity; (ii) the outputs of six in silico absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion models trained on the same endpoints, or (iii) the chemical structure encoded as fingerprints or simplified molecular input line entry system strings. The underlying data set for the models is an unprecedented collection of almost 1900 data points with high-quality in vivo experiments performed in rats. We find that drug exposure after iv administration can be predicted similarly well using hybrid models with in vitro- or in silico-predicted endpoints as inputs, with fold change errors (FCE) of 2.28 and 2.08, respectively. The FCEs for exposure after oral administration are higher, and here, the prediction from in vitro inputs performs significantly better in comparison to in silico-based models with FCEs of 3.49 and 2.40, respectively, most probably reflecting the higher complexity of oral bioavailability. Simplifying the prediction task to a binary alert for low oral bioavailability, based only on chemical structure, we achieve accuracy and precision close to 70%.

Ultra-High-Precision, in-vivo Pharmacokinetic Measurements Highlight the Need for and a Route Toward More Highly Personalized Medicine

Clinical drug dosing would, ideally, be informed by high-precision, patient-specific data on drug metabolism. The direct determination of patient-specific drug pharmacokinetics ("peaks and troughs"), however, currently relies on cumbersome, laboratory-based approaches that require hours to days to return pharmacokinetic estimates based on only one or two plasma drug measurements. In response clinicians often base dosing on age, body mass, pharmacogenetic markers, or other indirect estimators of pharmacokinetics despite the relatively low accuracy of these approaches. Here, in contrast, we explore the use of indwelling electrochemical aptamer-based (E-AB) sensors as a means of measuring pharmacokinetics rapidly and with high precision using a rat animal model. Specifically, measuring the disposition kinetics of the drug tobramycin in Sprague-Dawley rats we demonstrate the seconds resolved, real-time measurement of plasma drug levels accompanied by measurement validation via HPLC-MS on ex vivo samples. The resultant data illustrate the significant pharmacokinetic variability of this drug even when dosing is adjusted using body weight or body surface area, two widely used pharmacokinetic predictors for this important class of antibiotics, highlighting the need for improved methods of determining its pharmacokinetics.

Models of Drug Induced Liver Injury (DILI) - Current Issues and Future Perspectives

Background:

Drug-induced Liver Injury (DILI) is an important cause of acute liver failure cases in the United States, and remains a common cause of withdrawal of drugs in both preclinical and clinical phases.

Methods:

A structured search of bibliographic databases – Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and Medline for peer-reviewed articles on models of DILI was performed. The reference lists of relevant studies was prepared and a citation search for the included studies was carried out. In addition, the characteristics of screened studies were described.

Results:

One hundred and six articles about the existing knowledge of appropriate models to study DILI in vitro and in vivo with special focus on hepatic cell models, variations of 3D co-cultures, animal models, databases and predictive modeling and translational biomarkers developed to understand the mechanisms and pathophysiology of DILI are described.

Conclusion:

Besides descriptions of current applications of existing modeling systems, associated advantages and limitations of each modeling system and future directions for research development are discussed as well.

Integration of a plasma protein binding factor to the Chemical-Specific Adjustment Factor (CSAF) for facilitating the estimation of uncertainties in interspecies extrapolations when deriving health-based exposure limits for active pharmaceutical ingredients: Investigation of recent drug datasets

The objective was to challenge cross-species extrapolation factors with which to scale animal doses to human by any route for non-carcinogenic endpoints. The conventional hypothesis of the toxicokinetics (TK)-toxicodynamics (TD) relationship was equal toxicity at equal plasma level of the total drug moiety in each species, but this should also follow the free drug assumption, which states that only the unbound drug moiety in plasma may elicit a TD effect in tissue. Therefore, a protein binding factor (PBF) was combined with the Chemical-Specific Adjustment Factor (CSAF) (i.e., CSAF x PBF). The value of PBF of each drug was set equal to the ratio between human and animals of the unbound fraction in plasma (fu_p). Recent drug datasets were investigated. Our results indicate that any CSAF value would be increased or decreased while PBF deviates to the unity, and this required more attention. Accordingly, further testing indicated that the CSAF values set equal to basic allometric uncertainty factors according to the conventional hypothesis (dog∼2, monkey∼3.1, rat∼7, mouse∼12) would increase by including PBF for 30% of the drugs tested that showed a superior fu_p value in human compared to animals. However, default uncertainty factors in the range of 10-100 were less frequently exceeded. Overall, PBF could be combined with any other uncertainty factor to get reliable estimate of CSAF for each bound drug in deriving health-based exposure limits.

IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 2: An introduction to the simulation exercise and overview of results

Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (F_oral), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three available PBPK software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp®, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated by comparing simulated and observed pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. Since the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, caution is required when interpreting the results of this exercise. Additionally, this prospective simulation exercise may not be representative of prospective modelling in industry, as API information was limited to sparse details. 43 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from the OrBiTo database were selected for the exercise. Over 4000 simulation output files were generated, representing over 2550 study arm-institution-software combinations and approximately 600 human clinical study arms simulated with overlap. 84% of the simulated study arms represented administration of immediate release formulations, 11% prolonged or delayed release, and 5% intravenous (i.v.). Higher percentages of i.v. predicted area under the curve (AUC) were within two-fold of observed (52.9%) compared to per oral (p.o.) (37.2%), however, F_oral and relative AUC (F_rel) between p.o. formulations and solutions were generally well predicted (64.7% and 75.0%). Predictive performance declined progressing from i.v. to solution and immediate release tablet, indicating the compounding error with each layer of complexity. Overall performance was comparable to previous large-scale evaluations. A general overprediction of AUC was observed with average fold error (AFE) of 1.56 over all simulations. AFE ranged from 0.0361 to 64.0 across the 43 APIs, with 25 showing overpredictions. Discrepancies between software packages were observed for a few APIs, the largest being 606, 171, and 81.7-fold differences in AFE between SimCYP and GI-Sim, however average performance was relatively consistent across the three software platforms.

IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 3: Identifying gaps in system parameters by analysing In Silico performance across different compound classes

Three Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp® Simulator, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated as part of the Innovative Medicine Initiative Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools project (OrBiTo) during a blinded "bottom-up" anticipation of human pharmacokinetics. After data analysis of the predicted vs. measured pharmacokinetics parameters, it was found that oral bioavailability (F_oral) was underpredicted for compounds with low permeability, suggesting improper estimates of intestinal surface area, colonic absorption and/or lack of intestinal transporter information. F_oral was also underpredicted for acidic compounds, suggesting overestimation of impact of ionisation on permeation, lack of information on intestinal transporters, or underestimation of solubilisation of weak acids due to less than optimal intestinal model pH settings or underestimation of bile micelle contribution. F_oral was overpredicted for weak bases, suggesting inadequate models for precipitation or lack of in vitro precipitation information to build informed models. Relative bioavailability was underpredicted for both high logP compounds as well as poorly water-soluble compounds, suggesting inadequate models for solubility/dissolution, underperforming bile enhancement models and/or lack of biorelevant solubility measurements. These results indicate areas for improvement in model software, modelling approaches, and generation of applicable input data. However, caution is required when interpreting the impact of drug-specific properties in this exercise, as the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, and the modellers generally used the data "as is" in this blinded bottom-up prediction approach.

IMI - oral biopharmaceutics tools project - evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 1: Characterisation of the OrBiTo database of compounds

Predicting oral bioavailability (F_oral) is of importance for estimating systemic exposure of orally administered drugs. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation have been applied extensively in biopharmaceutics recently. The Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project (Innovative Medicines Initiative) aims to develop and improve upon biopharmaceutical tools, including PBPK absorption models. A large-scale evaluation of PBPK models may be considered the first step. Here we characterise the OrBiTo active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) database for use in a large-scale simulation study. The OrBiTo database comprised 83 APIs and 1475 study arms. The database displayed a median logP of 3.60 (2.40-4.58), human blood-to-plasma ratio of 0.62 (0.57-0.71), and fraction unbound in plasma of 0.05 (0.01-0.17). The database mainly consisted of basic compounds (48.19%) and Biopharmaceutics Classification System class II compounds (55.81%). Median human intravenous clearance was 16.9L/h (interquartile range: 11.6-43.6L/h; n=23), volume of distribution was 80.8L (54.5-239L; n=23). The majority of oral formulations were immediate release (IR: 87.6%). Human F_oral displayed a median of 0.415 (0.203-0.724; n=22) for IR formulations. The OrBiTo database was found to be largely representative of previously published datasets. 43 of the APIs were found to satisfy the minimum inclusion criteria for the simulation exercise, and many of these have significant gaps of other key parameters, which could potentially impact the interpretability of the simulation outcome. However, the OrBiTo simulation exercise represents a unique opportunity to perform a large-scale evaluation of the PBPK approach to predicting oral biopharmaceutics.

Human absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion properties of drug molecules: a plethora of approaches

Human radiolabel studies are traditionally conducted to provide a definitive understanding of the human absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) properties of a drug. However, advances in technology over the past decade have allowed alternative methods to be employed to obtain both clinical ADME and pharmacokinetic (PK) information. These include microdose and microtracer approaches using accelerator mass spectrometry, and the identification and quantification of metabolites in samples from classical human PK studies using technologies suitable for non-radiolabelled drug molecules, namely liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. These recently developed approaches are described here together with relevant examples primarily from experiences gained in support of drug development projects at GlaxoSmithKline. The advantages of these study designs together with their limitations are described. We also discuss special considerations which should be made for a successful outcome to these new approaches and also to the more traditional human radiolabel study in order to maximize knowledge around the human ADME properties of drug molecules.

In vitro platforms for evaluating liver toxicity

The liver is a heterogeneous organ with many vital functions, including metabolism of pharmaceutical drugs and is highly susceptible to injury from these substances. The etiology of drug-induced liver disease is still debated although generally regarded as a continuum between an activated immune response and hepatocyte metabolic dysfunction, most often resulting from an intermediate reactive metabolite. This debate stems from the fact that current animal and in vitro models provide limited physiologically relevant information, and their shortcomings have resulted in "silent" hepatotoxic drugs being introduced into clinical trials, garnering huge financial losses for drug companies through withdrawals and late stage clinical failures. As we advance our understanding into the molecular processes leading to liver injury, it is increasingly clear that (a) the pathologic lesion is not only due to liver parenchyma but is also due to the interactions between the hepatocytes and the resident liver immune cells, stellate cells, and endothelial cells; and (b) animal models do not reflect the human cell interactions. Therefore, a predictive human, in vitro model must address the interactions between the major human liver cell types and measure key determinants of injury such as the dosage and metabolism of the drug, the stress response, cholestatic effect, and the immune and fibrotic response. In this mini-review, we first discuss the current state of macro-scale in vitro liver culture systems with examples that have been commercialized. We then introduce the paradigm of microfluidic culture systems that aim to mimic the liver with physiologically relevant dimensions, cellular structure, perfusion, and mass transport by taking advantage of micro and nanofabrication technologies. We review the most prominent liver-on-a-chip platforms in terms of their physiological relevance and drug response. We conclude with a commentary on other critical advances such as the deployment of fluorescence-based biosensors to identify relevant toxicity pathways, as well as computational models to create a predictive tool.

Prediction of drug disposition on the basis of its chemical structure

The chemical structure of any drug determines its pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Detailed understanding of relationships between the drug chemical structure and individual disposition pathways (i.e., distribution and elimination) is required for efficient use of existing drugs and effective development of new drugs. Different approaches have been developed for this purpose, ranging from statistics-based quantitative structure-property (or structure-pharmacokinetic) relationships (QSPR) analysis to physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. This review critically analyzes currently available approaches for analysis and prediction of drug disposition on the basis of chemical structure. Models that can be used to predict different aspects of disposition are presented, including: (a) value of the individual pharmacokinetic parameter (e.g., clearance or volume of distribution), (b) efficiency of the specific disposition pathway (e.g., biliary drug excretion or cytochrome P450 3A4 metabolism), (c) accumulation in a specific organ or tissue (e.g., permeability of the placenta or accumulation in the brain), and (d) the whole-body disposition in the individual patients. Examples of presented pharmacological agents include "classical" low-molecular-weight compounds, biopharmaceuticals, and drugs encapsulated in specialized drug-delivery systems. The clinical efficiency of agents from all these groups can be suboptimal, because of inefficient permeability of the drug to the site of action and/or excessive accumulation in other organs and tissues. Therefore, robust and reliable approaches for chemical structure-based prediction of drug disposition are required to overcome these limitations. PBPK models are increasingly being used for prediction of drug disposition. These models can reflect the complex interplay of factors that determine drug disposition in a mechanistically correct fashion and can be combined with other approaches, for example QSPR-based prediction of drug permeability and metabolism, pharmacogenomic data and tools, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling approaches, etc. Moreover, the PBPK models enable detailed analysis of clinically relevant scenarios, for example the effect of the specific conditions on the time course of the analyzed drug in the individual organs and tissues, including the site of action. It is expected that further development of such combined approaches will increase their precision, enhance the effectiveness of drugs, and lead to individualized drug therapy for different patient populations (geriatric, pediatric, specific diseases, etc.).

Pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modelling of monoclonal antibodies

Development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and their functional derivatives represents a growing segment of the development pipeline in the pharmaceutical industry. More than 25 mAbs and derivatives have been approved for a variety of therapeutic applications. In addition, around 500 mAbs and derivatives are currently in different stages of development. mAbs are considered to be large molecule therapeutics (in general, they are 2-3 orders of magnitude larger than small chemical molecule therapeutics), but they are not just big chemicals. These compounds demonstrate much more complex pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic behaviour than small molecules. Because of their large size and relatively poor membrane permeability and instability in the conditions of the gastrointestinal tract, parenteral administration is the most usual route of administration. The rate and extent of mAb distribution is very slow and depends on extravasation in tissue, distribution within the particular tissue, and degradation. Elimination primarily happens via catabolism to peptides and amino acids. Although not definitive, work has been published to define the human tissues mainly involved in the elimination of mAbs, and it seems that many cells throughout the body are involved. mAbs can be targeted against many soluble or membrane-bound targets, thus these compounds may act by a variety of mechanisms to achieve their pharmacological effect. mAbs targeting soluble antigen generally exhibit linear elimination, whereas those targeting membrane-bound antigen often exhibit non-linear elimination, mainly due to target-mediated drug disposition (TMDD). The high-affinity interaction of mAbs and their derivatives with the pharmacological target can often result in non-linear pharmacokinetics. Because of species differences (particularly due to differences in target affinity and abundance) in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of mAbs, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling of mAbs has been used routinely to expedite the development of mAbs and their derivatives and has been utilized to help in the selection of appropriate dose regimens. Although modelling approaches have helped to explain variability in both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of these drugs, there is a clear need for more complex models to improve understanding of pharmacokinetic processes and pharmacodynamic interactions of mAbs with the immune system. There are different approaches applied to physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling of mAbs and important differences between the models developed. Some key additional features that need to be accounted for in PBPK models of mAbs are neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn; an important salvage mechanism for antibodies) binding, TMDD and lymph flow. Several models have been described incorporating some or all of these features and the use of PBPK models are expected to expand over the next few years.

Microdosing and drug development: past, present and future

INTRODUCTION

Microdosing is an approach to early drug development where exploratory pharmacokinetic data are acquired in humans using inherently safe sub-pharmacologic doses of drug. The first publication of microdose data was 10 years ago and this review comprehensively explores the microdose concept from conception, over the past decade, up until the current date.

AREAS COVERED

The authors define and distinguish the concept of microdosing from similar approaches. The authors review the ability of microdosing to provide exploratory pharmacokinetics (concentration-time data) but exclude microdosing using positron emission tomography. The article provides a comprehensive review of data within the peer-reviewed literature as well as the latest applications and a look into the future, towards where microdosing may be headed.

EXPERT OPINION

Evidence so far suggests that microdosing may be a better predictive tool of human pharmacokinetics than alternative methods and combination with physiologically based modelling may lead to much more reliable predictions in the future. The concept has also been applied to drug-drug interactions, polymorphism and assessing drug concentrations over time at its site of action. Microdosing may yet have more to offer in unanticipated directions and provide benefits that have not been fully realised to date.

Nilotinib preclinical pharmacokinetics and practical application toward clinical projections of oral absorption and systemic availability

Nilotinib is a highly potent and selective bcr-abl tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for the treatment of patients who are in the chronic and accelerated phases of Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Nilotinib preclinical data and its use for practical predictions of systemic exposure profiles and oral absorption are described. The systemic clearance (CL) of nilotinib was relatively low in rodents with a value of less than 25% of hepatic blood flow (Q(H)), while it was moderate in monkeys and dogs (CL/Q(H)  = 32-35%). The steady state volume of distribution (V(ss) ) ranged from 0.55 to 3.9 l/kg across the species tested. The maximum concentration (C(max)) of nilotinib occurred at 0.5-4 h and the bioavailability was moderate (17-44%). The plasma protein binding was high (> 97.5%) in preclinical species and humans. The human CL (~ 0.1 l/h/kg) and V(ss) (~2.0 l/kg) were best predicted by the rat-dog-human proportionality method and allometric scaling method, respectively. The human intravenous pharmacokinetic profile was projected by the Wajima 'C(ss)-MRT' method. The predicted micro-constants from human intravenous profiles were incorporated into the advanced compartmental absorption and transit model within the GastroPlus program to simulate the oral concentration-time curves in humans. Overall, the simulated oral human pharmacokinetic profiles showed good agreement with observed clinical data, and the model predicted that the C(max) , AUC, t(½) , V(z) /F and CL/F values were within 1.3-fold of the observed values. The absolute oral bioavailability of nilotinib in healthy humans was predicted to be low (< 25%).

Comparative assessment of In Vitro-In Vivo extrapolation methods used for predicting hepatic metabolic clearance of drugs

The purpose of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of various in vitro--in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) methods used for predicting hepatic metabolic clearance (CL) of drugs on the basis of intrinsic CL data determined in microsomes. Five IVIVE methods were evaluated: the "conventional and conventional bias-corrected methods" using the unbound fraction in plasma (fu(p) ), the "Berezhkovskiy method" in which the fu(p) is adjusted for drug ionization, the "Poulin et al. method" using the unbound fraction in liver (fu(liver) ), and the "direct scaling method," which does not consider any binding corrections. We investigated the effects of the following scenarios on the prediction of CL: the use of preclinical or human datasets, the extent of plasma protein binding, the magnitude of CL in vivo, and the extent of drug disposition based on biopharmaceutics drug disposition classification system (BDDCS) categorization. A large and diverse dataset of 139 compounds was collected, including those from the literature and in house from Genentech. The results of this study confirm that the Poulin et al. method is robust and showed the greatest accuracy as compared with the other IVIVE methods in the majority of prediction scenarios studied here. The difference across the prediction methods is most pronounced for (a) albumin-bound drugs, (b) highly bound drugs, and (c) low CL drugs. Predictions of CL showed relevant interspecies differences for BDDCS class 2 compounds; the direct scaling method showed the greatest predictivity for these compounds, particularly for a reduced dataset in rat that have unexpectedly high CL in vivo. This result is a reflection of the direct scaling method's natural tendency to overpredict the true metabolic CL. Overall, this study should facilitate the use of IVIVE correlation methods in physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) model.

Preclinical disposition of GDC-0973 and prospective and retrospective analysis of human dose and efficacy predictions

[3,4-Difluoro-2-(2-fluoro-4-iodo-phenylamino)-phenyl]-((S)-3-hydroxy-3-piperidin-2-yl-azetidin-1-yl)-methanone (GDC-0973) is a potent and highly selective inhibitor of mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK)/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) 1/2 (MEK1/2), a MAPK kinase that activates ERK1/2. The objectives of these studies were to characterize the disposition of GDC-0973 in preclinical species and to determine the relationship of GDC-0973 plasma concentrations to efficacy in Colo205 mouse xenograft models. The clearance (CL) of GDC-0973 was moderate in mouse (33.5 ml · min(-1) · kg(-1)), rat (37.9 ± 7.2 ml · min(-1) · kg(-1)), and monkey (29.6 ± 8.5 ml · min(-1) · kg(-1)). CL in dog was low (5.5 ± 0.3 ml · min(-1) · kg(-1)). The volume of distribution across species was large, 6-fold to 15-fold body water; half-lives ranged from 4 to 13 h. Protein binding in mouse, rat, dog, monkey, and human was high, with percentage unbound, 1 to 6%. GDC-0973-related radioactivity was rapidly and extensively distributed to tissues; however, low concentrations were observed in the brain. In rats and dogs, [(14)C]GDC-0973 was well absorbed (fraction absorbed, 70-80%). The majority of [(14)C]GDC-0973-related radioactivity was recovered in the bile of rat (74-81%) and dog (65%). The CL and volume of distribution of GDC-0973 in human, predicted by allometry, was 2.9 ml · min(-1) · kg(-1) and 9.9 l/kg, respectively. The predicted half-life was 39 h. To characterize the relationship between plasma concentration of GDC-0973 and tumor growth inhibition, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling was applied using an indirect response model. The KC(50) value for tumor growth inhibition in Colo205 xenografts was estimated to be 0.389 μM, and the predicted clinical efficacious dose was ∼10 mg. Taken together, these data are useful in assessing the disposition of GDC-0973, and where available, comparisons with human data were made.

Application of IVIVE and PBPK modeling in prospective prediction of clinical pharmacokinetics: strategy and approach during the drug discovery phase with four case studies

Prospective simulations of human pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters and plasma concentration-time curves using in vitro in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming a vital part of the drug discovery and development process. This paper presents a strategy to deliver prospective simulations in support of clinical candidate nomination. A three stage approach of input parameter evaluation, model selection and multiple scenario simulation is utilized to predict the key components influencing human PK; absorption, distribution and clearance. The Simcyp® simulator is used to illustrate the approach and four compounds are presented as case studies. In general, the prospective predictions captured the observed clinical data well. Predicted C(max) was within 2-fold of observed data for all compounds and AUC was within 2-fold for all compounds following a single dose and three out of four compounds following multiple doses. Similarly, t(max) was within 2-fold of observed data for all compounds. However, C(last) was less accurately captured with two of the four compounds predicting C(last) within 2-fold of observed data following a single dose. The trend in results was towards overestimation of AUC and C(last) , this was particularly apparent for compound 2 for which clearance was likely underestimated via IVIVE. The prospective approach to simulating human PK using IVIVE and PBPK modeling outlined here attempts to utilize all available in silico, in vitro and in vivo preclinical data in order to determine the most appropriate assumptions to use in prospective predictions of absorption, distribution and clearance to aid clinical candidate nomination.

PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 3: comparative assessement of prediction methods of human clearance

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of various allometric and in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) methodologies with and without plasma protein binding corrections for the prediction of human intravenous (i.v.) clearance (CL). The objective was also to evaluate the IVIVE prediction methods with animal data. Methodologies were selected from the literature. Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America member companies contributed blinded datasets from preclinical and clinical studies for 108 compounds, among which 19 drugs had i.v. clinical pharmacokinetics data and were used in the analysis. In vivo and in vitro preclinical data were used to predict CL by 29 different methods. For many compounds, in vivo data from only two species (generally rat and dog) were available and/or the required in vitro data were missing, which meant some methods could not be properly evaluated. In addition, 66 methods of predicting oral (p.o.) area under the curve (AUCp.o. ) were evaluated for 107 compounds using rational combinations of i.v. CL and bioavailability (F), and direct scaling of observed p.o. CL from preclinical species. Various statistical and outlier techniques were employed to assess the predictability of each method. Across methods, the maximum success rate in predicting human CL for the 19 drugs was 100%, 94%, and 78% of the compounds with predictions falling within 10-fold, threefold, and twofold error, respectively, of the observed CL. In general, in vivo methods performed slightly better than IVIVE methods (at least in terms of measures of correlation and global concordance), with the fu intercept method and two-species-based allometry (rat-dog) being the best performing methods. IVIVE methods using microsomes (incorporating both plasma and microsomal binding) and hepatocytes (not incorporating binding) resulted in 75% and 78%, respectively, of the predictions falling within twofold error. IVIVE methods using other combinations of binding assumptions were much less accurate. The results for prediction of AUCp.o. were consistent with i.v. CL. However, the greatest challenge to successful prediction of human p.o. CL is the estimate of F in human. Overall, the results of this initiative confirmed predictive performance of common methodologies used to predict human CL.

PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 4: prediction of plasma concentration-time profiles in human from in vivo preclinical data by using the Wajima approach

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Wajima allometry (Css -MRT) approach published in the literature, which is used to predict the human plasma concentration-time profiles from a scaling of preclinical species data. A diverse and blinded dataset of 108 compounds from PhRMA member companies was used in this evaluation. The human intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) pharmacokinetics (PK) data were available for 18 and 107 drugs, respectively. Three different scenarios were adopted for prediction of human PK profiles. In the first scenario, human clearance (CL) and steady-state volume of distribution (Vss ) were predicted by unbound fraction corrected intercept method (FCIM) and Øie-Tozer (OT) approaches, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR)-based approaches (TSrat-dog ) based on compound descriptors together with rat and dog data were utilized in the second scenario. Finally, in the third scenario, CL and Vss were predicted using the FCIM and Jansson approaches, respectively. For the prediction of oral pharmacokinetics, the human bioavailability and absorption rate constant were assumed as the average of preclinical species. Various statistical techniques were used for assessing the accuracy of the simulation scenarios. The human CL and Vss were predicted within a threefold error range for about 75% of the i.v. drugs. However, the accuracy in predicting key p.o. PK parameters appeared to be lower with only 58% of simulations falling within threefold of observed parameters. The overall ability of the Css -MRT approach to predict the curve shape of the profile was in general poor and ranged between low to medium level of confidence for most of the predictions based on the selected criteria.