Distance to the anal verge is associated with pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Comparative analysis of preoperative chemoradiotherapy and upfront surgery in the treatment of upper-half rectal cancer: oncological benefits, surgical outcomes, and cost implications

The value of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is not absolutely clear for upper-half (> 7-15 cm) rectal cancer. This study aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of radical surgery with preoperative CRT vs. upfront surgery (US) in Chinese patients with stage II and III upper-half rectal cancer. A total of 809 patients with locally advanced upper-half rectal cancer between 2017 and 2021 were enrolled retrospectively (280 treated with CRT and 529 treated with US). Through 1:1 propensity score matching, the CRT (172 patients) and US (172 patients) groups were compared for short-term postoperative results and long-term oncological and functional outcomes. In the entire cohort, patients in the CRT group had a younger age, lower distance from the anal verge (DAV), and higher rates of cT4 stage, cN2 stage, mrCRM positivity, EMVI positivity, CEA elevation, and CA-199 elevation than those in the US group. The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) was lower in the CRT group than in the US group (76% vs. 84%, p = 0.022), while the 5-year overall survival (OS) was comparable between the two groups (85% and 88%, p = 0.084). The distant metastasis rate was higher in the CRT group than in the US group (12.5% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.028), though the local recurrence rate was similar between the two groups (1.1% and 1.3%, p = 1.000). After performing PSM, the 5-year OS (86% vs. 88% p = 0.312), the 5-year DFS (79% vs. 80%, p = 0.435), the local recurrence rate (1.2% vs. 1.7%, p = 1.000), and the distant metastasis rate (11.0% vs. 9.3%, p = 0.593) were comparable between the two groups. Notable pathological downstaging was observed in the CRT group, with a pathological complete response (PCR) rate of 14.5%. In addition, patients in the CRT group had a lower proportion of pT3 (61.6% vs. 77.9%, p < 0.001), pN + (pN1, 15.1% vs. 30.2%, pN2, 9.3% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.001), stage III (24.4% vs. 50.6%, p < 0.001), perineural invasion (19.8% vs. 32.0%, p = 0.014), and lymphovascular invasion (9.3% vs. 25.6%, p < 0.001) than those in the US group. Postoperative complications and long-term functional results were similar, yet there was a trend toward a higher conversion to laparotomy rate (5 (2.9%) vs. 0 (0.0%), p = 0.061) and higher rates of robotic surgery (11.6% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.001), open surgery (7.0% vs. 0.6%, p < 0.001), diverting stoma (47.1% vs. 25.6%, p < 0.001), and surgery costs (1473.6 ± 106.5 vs. 1140.3 ± 54.3$, p = 0.006) in the CRT group. In addition, EMVI (OR = 2.516, p = 0.001) was the only independent risk factor associated with poor response to CRT, and in subgroup analysis of EMVI + , CRT group patients presented a lower 5-year DFS (72.9% vs. 80.5%, p = 0.025) compared to US group patients. CRT prior to surgery has no additional oncological benefits over US in the treatment of upper-half rectal cancer. In contrast, CRT is associated with increased rates of conversion to laparotomy, stoma creation and higher surgery costs. Surgeons tend to favor robotic surgery in the treatment of complex cases such as radiated upper-half rectal cancers. Notably, EMVI + patients with upper-half rectal cancer should be encouraged to undergo upfront surgery, as preoperative CRT may not provide benefits and may lead to delayed treatment effects.

Oncological outcomes after a pathological complete response following total neoadjuvant therapy or chemoradiotherapy for high-risk locally advanced rectal cancer in the RAPIDO trial

BACKGROUND

A pathological complete response (pCR) following chemoradiation (CRT) or short-course radiotherapy (scRT) leads to a favourable prognosis in patients with rectal cancer. Total neo-adjuvant therapy (TNT) doubles the pCR rate, but it is unknown whether oncological outcomes remain favourable and whether the same characteristics are associated with pCR as after CRT.

METHODS

Comparison between patients with pCR in the RAPIDO trial in the experimental [EXP] (scRT, chemotherapy, surgery, as TNT) and standard-of-care treatment [STD] (CRT, surgery, postoperative chemotherapy depending on hospital policy) groups. Primary and secondary outcomes were time-to-recurrence (TTR), overall survival (OS) and association between patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics and pCR.

RESULTS

Among patients with a resection within six months after preoperative treatment, 120/423 (28%) [EXP] and 57/398 (14%) [STD] achieved a pCR. Following pCR, 5-year cumulative TTR and OS rates in the EXP and STD arms were 8% vs. 7% (hazard ratio 1.04, 95%CI 0.32-3.38) and 94% vs. 93% (hazard ratio 1.41, 95%CI 0.51-3.92), respectively. Besides the EXP treatment (odds ratio 2.70, 95%CI 1.83-3.97), pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) <5, pre-treatment tumour size <40 mm and cT2 were associated with pCR. Distance from the anal verge was the only characteristic with a statistically significant difference in association with pCR between the EXP and STD treatment (Pinteraction=0.042). pCR rates did not increase with prolonged treatment time.

CONCLUSIONS

The doubled pCR rate of TNT compared to CRT results in similar oncological outcomes. Characteristics associated with pCR are the EXP treatment, normal CEA, and small tumour size.

A dynamic nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

To explore the clinical factors associated with pathologic complete response (pCR) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and develop a web-based dynamic nomogram.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients with examination confirmed LARC from 2011 to 2022. Patients from the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University were included as the training cohort (n = 1579) and Zhangzhou Hospital of Fujian Medical University as the external validation cohort (n = 246).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, after nCRT, 350 (22.2%) patients achieved pCR. More stomas were avoided in pCR patients (73.9% vs. 69.7%, p = 0.043). After a median follow-up time of 47.7 months (IQR 2-145) shown OS (5-year: 93.7% vs. 81.0%, HR = 0.310, 95%CI: 0.189-0.510, p < 0.001) and DFS (5-year: 91.2% vs. 75.0%, HR = 0.204, 95%CI: 0.216-0.484, p < 0.001) were significantly better among patients with pCR than non-pCR. Multivariable Logistic analysis shown pCR was significantly associated with Pre-CRT CEA (HR = 0.944, 95%CI: 0.921-0.968; p < 0.001), histopathology (HR = 4.608, 95%CI: 2.625-8.089; p < 0.001), Pre-CRT T stage (HR = 0.793, 95%CI: 0.634-0.993; p = 0.043), Pre-CRT N stage (HR = 0.727, 95%CI: 0.606-0.873; p = 0.001), Pre-CRT MRI EMVI (HR = 0.352, 95%CI: 0.262-0.473; p < 0.001), total neoadjuvant therapy (HR = 2.264, 95%CI: 1.280-4.004; p = 0.005). Meanwhile, the online version of the nomogram established in this study was publicized on an open-access website (URL: https://pcrpredict.shinyapps.io/LARC2/). The model predicted accuracy with a C-index of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70-0.75), with an average C-index of 0.73 for the internal cross validation and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72-0.83) for the external validation cohort, showing excellent model accuracy. Delong test results showed the model has an important gain value for clinical characteristics to predict pCR in rectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with pCR had a better prognosis, including OS and DFS, and were independently associated with Pre-CRT CEA, histopathology, Pre-CRT T/N stage, Pre-CRT MRI EMVI, and TNT. A web-based dynamic nomogram was successfully established for clinical use at any time.

Characteristics of pathologic complete response for locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NACRT) is the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancers. The purpose of this study was to determine patient and tumor factors associated with a pathologic complete response (pCR).

METHODS

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program proctectomy-targeted database was utilized to identify all patients from 2016 to 2020 who underwent NACRT followed by proctectomy with curative intent for T3-4N0-2 rectal cancers.

RESULTS

A total of 1891 patients were included, of which 253 (13.4%) demonstrated a pCR. Pretreatment N0 staging was associated with a higher rate of pCR (18.9%) when compared to N1 (6.7%) and N2 (6.7%) (p < 0.0001). Patients clinically staged at T3N0 had the highest rate of pCR (19.5%). Gender, age, race, weight, smoking status, and tumor height were not associated with pCR.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cN0 disease were more likely to experience a pCR compared to cN1-2 patients. Tumor height relative to anal verge or patient demographics were not associated with pCR.

Construction and Evaluation of Nomogram for Hematological Indicators to Predict Pathological Response after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

OBJECTIVE

A retrospective study was conducted by developing prediction models to evaluate the association between hematological indexes, their changes during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT), and tumor pathological response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

METHODS

The clinical data of 202 patients who received NCRT and radical surgery in Sichuan Cancer Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and logistic multivariate regression analyses were used to identify hematological indexes with predictive significance. The independent risk factors were imported into the R software, and a nomogram prediction model was developed. The bootstrap method and ROC curve were used to evaluate the discriminative degree of the model.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis demonstrated age, tumor diameter, preoperative T, distance from tumor to the anal verge, CEA before NCRT, preoperative CEA, lymphocyte changes, platelet changes, and pathology of rectal cancer after NCRT were associated. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, tumor distance from the anus, preoperative CEA, lymphocyte changes, and platelet changes were independent risk factors. The independent risk factors were imported into the R software to construct a nomogram model. The area under the ROC was 0.76, and the slope of the calibration curve of the nomogram was close to 1.

CONCLUSION

A low preoperative CEA level, a young age, a high tumor from the anal verge, the maintenance of circulating lymphocyte level, and a decreased platelet level after NCRT are important factors for favorable outcomes after NCRT. Developing a nomogram prediction model with good discrimination and consistency can provide some guidance for predicting pathological responses after NCRT.

Radiomics from Mesorectal Blood Vessels and Lymph Nodes: A Novel Prognostic Predictor for Rectal Cancer with Neoadjuvant Therapy

The objective of our study is to investigate the predictive value of various combinations of radiomic features from intratumoral and different peritumoral regions of interest (ROIs) for achieving a good pathological response (pGR) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This retrospective study was conducted using data from LARC patients who underwent nCRT between 2013 and 2021. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 4:1. Intratumoral ROIs (ROI_ITU) were segmented on T2-weighted imaging, while peritumoral ROIs were segmented using two methods: ROI_{PTU_2mm}, ROI_{PTU_4mm}, and ROI_{PTU_6mm}, obtained by dilating the boundary of ROI_ITU by 2 mm, 4 mm, and 6 mm, respectively; and ROI_{MR_F} and ROI_{MR_BVLN}, obtained by separating the fat and blood vessels + lymph nodes in the mesorectum. After feature extraction and selection, 12 logistic regression models were established using radiomics features derived from different ROIs or ROI combinations, and five-fold cross-validation was performed. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the models. The study included 209 patients, consisting of 118 pGR and 91 non-pGR patients. The model that integrated ROI_ITU and ROI_{MR_BVLN} features demonstrated the highest predictive ability, with an AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.936 (0.904-0.972) in the training cohort and 0.859 (0.745-0.974) in the validation cohort. This model outperformed models that utilized ROI_ITU alone (AUC = 0.779), ROI_{MR_BVLN} alone (AUC = 0.758), and other models. The radscore derived from the optimal model can predict the treatment response and prognosis after nCRT. Our findings validated that the integration of intratumoral and peritumoral radiomic features, especially those associated with mesorectal blood vessels and lymph nodes, serves as a potent predictor of pGR to nCRT in patients with LARC. Pending further corroboration in future research, these insights could provide novel imaging markers for refining therapeutic strategies.

Measuring distance from lowest boundary of rectal tumor to anal verge on CT images using pyramid attention pooling transformer

Accurately measuring the Distance from the lowest boundary of rectal tumor To the Anal Verge (DTAV) is critical for developing optimal surgical plans for treating patients with rectal cancer. DTAV was traditionally estimated by colonoscopy or manual measurement on computed tomography (CT) images. However, colonoscopy brings substantial pains to the patient. As for manual measurement on CT images, it is time-consuming and its accuracy depends on the surgeon's expertise. In this work, we present a novel method for automatically measuring DTAV from sagittal CT images. The success of our method is mainly credited to a pyramid attention pooling (PAP) transformer architecture, which naturally entangles global lesion localization and local boundary delineation. Our method automatically generates the rectum's centerline based on a segmented rectum and tumor image to simulate the manual measurement of DTAV. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the method with a newly collected rectum tumor CT image dataset. On a test dataset of 48 patients' CT images with rectal tumors, the mean absolute difference between our method and the gold standard is 1.74 cm, which is a significant improvement of 1.29 cm over that measured by a resident surgeon (P < 0.001). In addition, The results measured by the resident surgeon referring to our segmentation results improved by 1.46 cm compared to the results measured independently by the residents. As experimentally demonstrated, our method exhibits great application potential in clinical scenarios.

Predicting Factors of Complete Pathological Response in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background: Current treatment of choice for locally advanced rectal cancer is neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) followed by surgical resection and adjuvant chemotherapy. Some patients may experience complete pathological response (cPR) after the neoadjuvant treatment. However, the predicting factors are still debated. Methods: In this registry-based retrospective cohort study, 258 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer were included. Patients were categorized into two groups with or without cPR. Logistic regression analysis was recruited to investigate the odds ratio for all independent variables, and those with significant results were included in multivariate regression analysis. Results: Achievement of cPR was 21.3%. The odds ratio of cPR was significantly lower when the tumor distance from the anal verge was>10 centimeters (OR=0.24, P=0.040). Also, the odds of cPR with N1 involvement in comparison with N0 involvement decreased for 0.41 (P=0.043). It was also true for patients with N2 involvement in comparison with N0 involvement (OR=0.31, P=0.031). Higher odds ratio of cPR was observed in patients who underwent surgery in>12 weeks after neo-CRT (OR=2.9, P=0.022). Furthermore, the odds of cPR decreased for 0.9 with increasing in carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (P=0.044). Conclusion: Patients with rectal cancer in clinical stage II or lower, without the involvement of the lymphatic system at diagnosis, and with tumors located in the lower parts of the rectum, with lower levels of CEA, and longer duration between neo-CRT and surgery were more likely to achieve cPR after neo-CRT. With the current knowledge, the "wait and watch policy" is still debated and needs to be defined more precisely by upcoming studies.

Genomic and transcriptomic determinants of response to neoadjuvant therapy in rectal cancer

The incidence of rectal cancer is increasing in patients younger than 50 years. Locally advanced rectal cancer is still treated with neoadjuvant radiation, chemotherapy and surgery, but recent evidence suggests that patients with a complete response can avoid surgery permanently. To define correlates of response to neoadjuvant therapy, we analyzed genomic and transcriptomic profiles of 738 untreated rectal cancers. APC mutations were less frequent in the lower than in the middle and upper rectum, which could explain the more aggressive behavior of distal tumors. No somatic alterations had significant associations with response to neoadjuvant therapy in a treatment-agnostic manner, but KRAS mutations were associated with faster relapse in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by consolidative chemotherapy. Overexpression of IGF2 and L1CAM was associated with decreased response to neoadjuvant therapy. RNA-sequencing estimates of immune infiltration identified a subset of microsatellite-stable immune hot tumors with increased response and prolonged disease-free survival.

Tissue-Based Markers as a Tool to Assess Response to Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer-Systematic Review

According to current guidelines, the current treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer is neoadjuvant therapy, followed by a total mesorectal excision. However, radiosensitivity tends to differ among patients due to tumor heterogeneity, making it difficult to predict the possible outcomes of the neoadjuvant therapy. This review aims to investigate different types of tissue-based biomarkers and their capability of predicting tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. We identified 169 abstracts in NCBI PubMed, selected 48 reports considered to meet inclusion criteria and performed this systematic review. Multiple classes of molecular biomarkers, such as proteins, DNA, micro-RNA or tumor immune microenvironment, were studied as potential predictors for rectal cancer response; nonetheless, no literature to date has provided enough sufficient evidence for any of them to be introduced into clinical practice.

Pathological Evaluation of Rectal Cancer Specimens Using Micro-Computed Tomography

Whole-block imaging (WBI) using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) allows the nondestructive reconstruction of a three-dimensional view of tissues, implying that WBI may be used for accurate pathological evaluation of patients with rectal cancer. HOWEVER, the clinical impact of this approach is unclear. We aimed to clarify the efficacy of WBI in the whole-mount specimens of locally advanced rectal cancer. A total of 237 whole-mount formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks from 13 patients with rectal cancer who underwent surgical treatment were enrolled and scanned with micro-CT to generate three-dimensional images. WBI was evaluated following the conventional pathological review of the corresponding whole-slide imaging (WSI). WBI identified all tumor sites detected using WSI. Furthermore, WBI revealed one additional tumor site, which was not detected using WSI. Tumor resection margin was significantly closer to the soft-tissue edge when measured using WBI (7.7 mm vs. 6.6 mm, p < 0.01). Seventy-six percent of tumor deposits on WSI were changed according to the evidence of tumor interaction with the surrounding tissues confirmed using WBI. Furthermore, WBI revealed 25 additional lymph nodes, six of which were metastatic. The combination of conventional hematoxylin and eosin-stained imaging and WBI may contribute to an accurate pathological assessment.

Can transrectal ultrasonography distinguish anorectal malignant melanoma from low rectal adenocarcinoma? A retrospective paired study for ten years

BACKGROUND

Anorectal malignant melanoma (ARMM) and low rectal adenocarcinoma (LRAC) have some similarities in clinical behaviors, histopathological characteristics and ultrasonographic findings, diagnostic errors are common. By comparing the transrectally ultrasonographic features between the two tumors, we propose to provide more possibilities in differentiating them.

METHODS

The data of 9 ARMMs and 27 age- and gender-matched LRACs (the lower margin below the peritoneal reflection) in West China Hospital Sichuan University between April 2008 and July 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. The ultrasonic features between the two groups were compared.

RESULTS

Transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) showed that the length of ARMM was shorter than that of LRAC (28.22 ± 12.29 mm vs. 40.22 ± 15.16 mm), and ARMM had a lower position than that of LRAC (the distance to anal verge was 50.78 ± 11.70 vs. 63.81 ± 18.73 mm). Unlike LRAC, the majority of ARMM in our study was confined to the intestinal mucosa/submucosa (66.67/25.93%) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the data of our study, several ultrasonographic findings (length, invasion depth, and position) of ARMM were significantly different from LRAC. Accordingly, more attention should be paid to masses at anorectal junction with lower position, shorter length, and shallower infiltration depth. Instead of the most common tumor, LRAC, ARMM should be taken into account to avoid a misdiagnosis, which will result in a poorer prognosis.

Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: from biomarkers to tumor models

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major contributor to cancer-associated morbidity worldwide and over one-third of CRC is located in the rectum. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgical resection is commonly applied to treat locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this review, we summarize current and novel concepts of neoadjuvant therapy for LARC such as total neoadjuvant therapy and describe how these developments impact treatment response. Moreover, as response to nCRT is highly divergent in rectal cancers, we discuss the role of potential predictive biomarkers. We review recent advances in biomarker discovery, from a clinical as well as a histopathological and molecular perspective. Furthermore, the role of emerging predictive biomarkers derived from the tumor environment such as immune cell composition and gut microbiome is presented. Finally, we describe how different tumor models such as patient-derived cancer organoids are used to identify novel predictive biomarkers for chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in rectal cancer.

Development and Assessment of a Clinical Calculator for Estimating the Likelihood of Recurrence and Survival Among Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Chemotherapy, Radiotherapy, and Surgery

IMPORTANCE

Predicting outcomes in patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer is challenging because of tumor downstaging. Validated clinical calculators that can estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with rectal cancer who have received multimodal therapy are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate clinical calculators providing estimates of rectal cancer recurrence and survival that are better for individualized decision-making than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system or the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study developed risk models, graphically represented as nomograms, for patients with incomplete pathological response using Cox proportional hazards and multivariable regression analyses with restricted cubic splines. Because patients with complete pathological response to neoadjuvant therapy had uniformly favorable outcomes, their predictions were obtained separately. The study included 1400 patients with stage II or III rectal cancer who received treatment with chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery at 2 comprehensive cancer centers (Memorial Sloan Kettering [MSK] Cancer Center and Siteman Cancer Center [SCC]) between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2017. Patients from the MSK cohort received chemoradiation, surgery, and adjuvant chemotherapy from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2014; these patients were randomly assigned to either a model training group or an internal validation group. Models were externally validated using data from the SCC cohort, who received either chemoradiation, surgery, and adjuvant chemotherapy (chemoradiotherapy group) or short-course radiotherapy, consolidation chemotherapy, and surgery (total neoadjuvant therapy with short-course radiotherapy group) from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2017. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, to January 10, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Chemotherapy, radiotherapy, chemoradiotherapy, and surgery.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Recurrence-free survival and OS were the outcome measures, and the discriminatory performance of the clinical calculators was measured with concordance index and calibration plots. The ability of the clinical calculators to predict RFS and OS was compared with that of the AJCC staging system and the NAR score. The models for RFS and OS among patients with incomplete pathological response included postoperative pathological tumor category, number of positive lymph nodes, tumor distance from anal verge, and large- and small-vessel venous and perineural invasion; age was included in the risk model for OS. The final clinical calculators provided RFS and OS estimates derived from Kaplan-Meier curves for patients with complete pathological response and from risk models for patients with incomplete pathological response.

RESULTS

Among 1400 total patients with locally advanced rectal cancer, the median age was 57.8 years (range, 18.0-91.9 years), and 863 patients (61.6%) were male, with tumors at a median distance of 6.7 cm (range, 0-15.0 cm) from the anal verge. The MSK cohort comprised 1069 patients; of those, 710 were assigned to the model training group and 359 were assigned to the internal validation group. The SCC cohort comprised 331 patients; of those, 200 were assigned to the chemoradiotherapy group and 131 were assigned to the total neoadjuvant therapy with short-course radiotherapy group. The concordance indices in the MSK validation data set were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76) for RFS and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.80) for OS. In the external SCC data set, the concordance indices in the chemoradiotherapy group were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62-0.81) for RFS and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.59-0.85) for OS; the concordance indices in the total neoadjuvant therapy with short-course radiotherapy group were 0.62 (95% CI, 0.49-0.75) for RFS and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.46-0.84) for OS. Calibration plots confirmed good agreement between predicted and observed events. These results compared favorably with predictions based on the AJCC staging system (concordance indices for MSK validation: RFS = 0.69 [95% CI, 0.64-0.74]; OS = 0.67 [95% CI, 0.58-0.75]) and the NAR score (concordance indices for MSK validation: RFS = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.50-0.63]; OS = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.46-0.66]). Furthermore, the clinical calculators provided more individualized outcome estimates compared with the categorical schemas (eg, estimated RFS for patients with AJCC stage IIIB disease ranged from 7% to 68%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this prognostic study, clinical calculators were developed and validated; these calculators provided more individualized estimates of the likelihood of RFS and OS than the AJCC staging system or the NAR score among patients with rectal cancer who received multimodal treatment. The calculators were easy to use and applicable to both short- and long-course radiotherapy regimens, and they may be used to inform surveillance strategies and facilitate future clinical trials and statistical power calculations.

Evaluation and Predictive Factors of Complete Response in Rectal Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy

The response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy is an important prognostic factor for locally advanced rectal cancer. Although the majority of the patients after neoadjuvant therapy are referred to following surgery, the clinical data show that complete clinical or pathological response is found in a significant proportion of the patients. Diagnostic accuracy of confirming the complete response has a crucial role in further management of a rectal cancer patient. As the rate of clinical complete response, unfortunately, is not always consistent with pathological complete response, accurate diagnostic parameters and predictive markers of tumor response may help to guide more personalized treatment strategies and identify potential candidates for nonoperative management more safely. The management of complete response demands interdisciplinary collaboration including oncologists, radiotherapists, radiologists, pathologists, endoscopists and surgeons, because the absence of a multidisciplinary approach may compromise the oncological outcome. Prediction and improvement of rectal cancer response to neoadjuvant therapy is still an active and challenging field of further research. This literature review is summarizing the main, currently known clinical information about the complete response that could be useful in case if encountering such condition in rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, using as a source PubMed publications from 2010–2021 matching the search terms “rectal cancer”, “neoadjuvant therapy” and “response”.

Association Between Pathological Complete Response and Tumor Location in Patients with Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy, a Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Colorectal cancers are the third common malignancies after lung and breast neoplasms. Some contributing factors for pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy of rectal cancer have been defined. Despite various studies in this era, there are few studies on the location of tumors. Objectives: Regarding the high prevalence of colorectal cancer in Iran and the importance of neoadjuvant chemoradiation for survival and morbidity, this study was carried out to determine the association between pathologic complete response and tumor location in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Methods: In this prospective cohort, 100 cases with rectal adenocarcinoma from 2017 to 2019 were enrolled. Distance between anal verge and tumor was measured by clinical examination, colonoscopy, endo-sonography, and MRI. Tumors were defined as distal (less than 5 cm from the anal verge) and none distal (more than 5 cm from the anal verge). Another subdivision was inferior (0 - 4.99 cm), middle (5 - 9.99 cm), and superior (10 - 15 cm). The pathological response was compared across the groups. Results: In this study, the pCR was seen in 30%. In univariate analysis body mass index (BMI), grade, N-stage, and distance from anal verge were related to pCR. In cases with BMI over 25 kg/m2 and in tumors with low to medium grade N0/N1, and distance less than 5 cm from the anal verge (low lying tumors) the pCR to neoadjuvant treatment was higher. In multivariate analysis tumor grade, N stage, and distance from anal verge were still related to pCR. Conclusions: According to the obtained results in this study, there may be some association between rectal tumor location and pathologic complete response.

MRI Evaluation of Complete Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Therapy: Current Status and Future Trends

Complete tumor response can be achieved in a certain proportion of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer, who achieve maximal response to neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). For these patients, a watch-and-wait (WW) or nonsurgical strategy has been proposed and is becoming widely practiced in order to avoid unnecessary surgical complications. Therefore, a non-invasive, reliable diagnostic tool for accurately evaluating complete tumor response is needed. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays a crucial role in both primary staging and restaging tumor response to NAT in rectal cancer without relying on resected specimen. In recent years, numerous efforts have been made to research the value of MRI in predicting and evaluating complete response in rectal cancer. Current MRI evaluation is mainly based on morphological and functional images. Morphologic MRI yields high soft tissue resolution, multiplanar images, and provides detailed depictions of rectal cancer and its surrounding structures. Functional MRI may help to distinguish residual tumor from fibrosis, therefore improving the diagnostic performance of morphologic MRI in identifying complete tumor response. Both morphologic and functional MRI have several promising parameters that may help accurately evaluate and/or predict complete response of rectal cancer. However, these parameters still have limitations and the results remain inconsistent. Recent development of new techniques, such as textural analysis, radiomics analysis and deep learning, demonstrate great potential based on MRI-derived parameters. This article aimed to review and help better understand the strengths, limitations, and future trends of these MRI-derived methods in evaluating complete response in rectal cancer.

Pathological Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Therapy in Rectal Adenocarcinoma: a 5-Year Follow-up

Neoadjuvant therapy is the gold standard treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer. It may induce complete sterilization of tumor cell and decreases its local recurrence rate. While 15–20% of patients were found to have pathological complete response (pCR) with combined multimodal therapy, Asian data were generally scarce. pCR rate can indicate the suitability of applying the “watch-and-wait” strategy, which advocates deferment of surgery that can alleviate surgery-associated morbidity.To determine the percentage of pCR of rectal cancer after neoadjuvant therapy. Patients diagnosed with rectal cancer underwent treatment from 2013 to 2017 were retrieved retrospectively. Demographic data, tumor localization, pre- and post-operative pathological reports, neoadjuvant therapy, and pCR status were collected from patients’ records. A total of 242 out of 259 patients were treated with definitive rectal surgery. Mean age was 67.1 years old. Chinese ethnicity and male gender were predominant (n = 131, 54.1% and n = 146, 64.3% respectively). More than half (n = 124, 51.2%) had tumor located at mid or low rectum. Histologically, moderate differentiated adenocarcinoma was predominant (n = 227, 93.8%). Merely half (n = 123, 50.8%) of the patients received neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, but only 12 (9.8%) had a pCR. From follow-up on these 12 pCR patients, most had 2-year disease-free survival but 1 (8.3%) of the pCR had distant metastasis within 1-year post-surgery. The pathological complete response rate in our center was lower than reported. Stringent patient selection with close follow-up for patients should be carried out if the “watch-and-wait” strategy is implemented in our population.

Pathologic-Based Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival Among Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose

Preoperative neoadjuvant therapy is standard before surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer in current clinical treatment. However, patients with the same clinical TNM stage before treatment vary in clinical outcomes. More and more studies noted that pathological findings after preoperative neoadjuvant therapy are better prognostic factors to determine prognosis than clinical TNM stage in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate models based on pathological findings to predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Patients and Methods

A total of 3026 patients from two hospitals were included. The endpoint was OS and DFS. Significant predictors of OS on multivariate analysis were used to establish the nomogram.

Results

The Harrell’s C index for OS prediction was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.77) in the training cohort, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.73) in the internal and external validation cohorts. Using this nomogram, high- and low-risk groups for OS were defined in the training cohort. The 3-year OS was 78.1% (95% CI: 72.4–84.2%) for the high-risk group and 95% (95% CI: 93.6–96.5%) in the low-risk group (HR: 4.42, 95% CI: 3.22–6.05; P<0.001). This finding was also applied in the two external cohorts. Similarly, a nomogram that contained the same indices was developed and validated to predict for DFS.

Conclusion

Nomograms based on pathological findings are a reliable tool to predict 3-year OS and DFS rate in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Clinical predictors of pathological good response in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose

The aim of this study was to identify the clinical predictors of pathological good response (PGR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to clarify the indications for local excision.

Methods and materials

A total of 173 patients with LARC (cT3–4/N +) who were treated with nCRT followed by surgery were enrolled in our retrospective study. Patients were categorized into two groups according to the different tumor responses of surgical pathology. Stage ypT0–1N0 was defined as the group with PGR, and stage ypT2–4N0/ypTanyN + was the defined as the pathological poor response (PPR) group, and the potential predictors were compared.

Results

Of 173 patients, PGR was achieved in 57 patients (32.95%). The distance from the inferior margin of the tumor to the anal verge, cT classification, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery were correlated with pathological response. In the multivariate analysis, the distance from anal verge < 5 cm (OR = 0.443, p = 0.019), pretreatment CEA < 5 ng/mL (OR = 0.412, p = 0.015) and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery ≥ 84 days (OR = 2.652, p = 0.005) were independent predictors of PGR.

Conclusions

The distance from the inferior margin of the tumor to the anal verge, pretreatment CEA and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery were significant predictors of PGR in LARC. A prospective study is needed to further validate these results in the future.

Prognostic significance of early complete response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy: Multicentric study of Turkish Society for Radiation Oncology Group (TROD)

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To assess the effect of various parameters on the oncologic outcomes, including the time interval between therapy and surgery (S) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients receiving preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data of 914 LARC patients who received preoperative CRT between 1994 and 2015 were collected retrospectively. Patients received 45-50.4 Gy RT with 5FU based chemotherapy (CT). They all underwent radical resection followed by maintenance CT. Clinical and pathologic variables were compared between the pCR and no-pCR groups. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model was used in multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

After median follow-up of 60.5 (range=12-297.6) months, median overall survival (OS) was 58.75 months and disease-free survival (DFS) 53.32 months. pCR was observed in 18.9% of all cases. pCR, lymphovascular invasion and metastatic lymph node ratio (mLNR) were significantly associated with OS and DFS on multivariate analysis. The 5-year OS and DFS rates were better in pCR group (95.3% vs 80.7% for OS, p<0.0001 and 87.4% vs 71% for DFS, p<0.0001). pCR patients with 4-8 weeks interval had lower rates of distant metastasis (9% vs 20%, p=0.01) and any recurrences (13.6% vs 29.6%, p=0.001) than the remaining. Both OS and DFS were better in favor of pCR achieved at 4-8 week interval time (p<0.0001 for each).

CONCLUSION

pCR after preoperative CRT in LARC correlated with better oncologic outcome. The best OS and DFS durations were achieved in patients who experienced pCR after 4-8-weeks interval before surgery.

Predictive Significance of Mucinous Histology on Pathologic Complete Response Rate Following Capecitabine-Based Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Rectal Cancer: a Comparative Study

INTRODUCTION

Currently, neoadjuvant fluoropyrimidine-based chemoradiation followed by surgery is considered the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer. The current study aimed to investigate the predictive significance of mucinous histology on the pathologic complete response rate following neoadjuvant chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer and to propose potential new treatment protocol for this specific histology.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

This retrospective study was conducted on 403 patients with locally advanced (clinically T3-4 and/or N1-2) rectal adenocarcinoma who had been treated at three tertiary academic hospitals between 2010 and 2015. Among those 403 patients, 46 (11%) had mucinous rectal cancer (MRC) and 358 (89%) had non-mucinous rectal cancer (NMRC). All patients underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiation with capecitabine followed by low anterior or abdominoperineal resection.

RESULTS

There were 268 men and 135 women with a median age of 55 years (range, 26-82 years). Patients with MRC were younger (p = 0.002) and presented with a larger tumor size (p < 0.001) and a more advanced tumor stage (p = 0.033) compared to the ones with MNRC. In the univariate analysis, female gender (p = 0.009), distal tumor location (p = 0.035), higher tumor stage (p = 0.049), node positivity (p = 0.001), MRC histology (p = 0.017), and high pretreatment CEA level (p = 0.013) were observed to be predictive of a poor pathologic complete response. However, in the multivariate analysis, tumor stage was the single most predictive factor of response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation.

CONCLUSION

Mucinous adenocarcinoma is a significant predictive factor for poor pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant capecitabine-based chemoradiation in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. New treatment modality based on biomarkers may be considered in future prospective studies because of MRC poor prognosis. Immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy may be an attractive option because of the tumor microsatellite instability-high status.

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Tumor Recurrence in Patients with Early T-Stage Cancer of the Lower Rectum

BACKGROUND

The role neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) plays in oncological outcomes in early T-stage rectal cancer is uncertain. The present work aims to clarify prognostic outcomes by estimating the effect of nCRT on tumor recurrence prior to major surgery compared with major surgery alone.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prospectively collected data were retrospectively analyzed for patients diagnosed with localized rectal adenocarcinoma ≤ 8 cm from the anal verge, with final histopathology ≤ T2 (≤ ypT2/≤ pT2), regardless of magnetic resonance imaging staging, between 1990 and 2017. As the effect of nCRT on recurrence varied over time, thereby violating the Cox proportional hazards assumption, the effect of nCRT on recurrence hazards was estimated using a time-varying multivariate Cox model over two separate time intervals (≤ 1 year and > 1 year postsurgery) by nCRT.

RESULTS

Long-course nCRT was associated with a 5.6-fold increase in the hazard of recurrence ≤ 1 year postsurgery [hazard ratio (HR) 5.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-24.9; P = 0.02], but there was no increase in recurrence hazards > 1 year (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.4-2.0; P = 0.70). In subgroup analysis restricted to ≤ mrT2/≤ ypT2 and ≤ pT2 tumors (omitting > mrT2 tumors), the effect of nCRT on recurrence no longer varied over time, indicating that tumor heterogeneity was responsible for the observed increased recurrence hazards ≤ 1 year postsurgery; That is, > mrT2 tumors that were downstaged to ≤ ypT2 after nCRT were responsible for the time-varying effects of nCRT and increased recurrence hazards ≤ 1 year postsurgery. Subsequently, no difference was found in prognostic outcomes either with or without nCRT before surgery in the homogeneous population of ≤ mrT2/≤ ypT2 and ≤ pT2 tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence was found to indicate that nCRT prior to surgery reduces tumor recurrence in early T-stage lower rectal cancer compared with surgery alone.

MRI-Based Radiomics Predicts Tumor Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background: Conventional methods for predicting treatment response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) are limited.

Methods: This study retrospectively recruited 134 LARC patients who underwent standard nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision surgery in our institution. Based on pre-operative axial T2-weighted images, machine learning radiomics was performed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was performed to test the efficiencies of the predictive model.

Results: Among the 134 patients, 32 (23.9%) achieved pathological complete response (pCR), 69 (51.5%) achieved a good response, and 91 (67.9%) achieved down-staging. For prediction of pCR, good-response, and down-staging, the predictive model demonstrated high classification efficiencies, with an AUC value of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.83–0.98), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83–0.97), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87–0.98), respectively.

Conclusion: Our machine learning radiomics model showed promise for predicting response to nCRT in patients with LARC. Our predictive model based on the commonly used T2-weighted images on pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans has the potential to be adapted in clinical practice.

Novelty and Impact Statements: Methods for predicting the response of the locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC, T3-4, or N+) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is lacking. In the present study, we developed a new machine learning radiomics method based on T2-weighted images. As a non-invasive tool, this method facilitates prediction performance effectively. It achieves a satisfactory overall diagnostic accuracy for predicting of pCR, good response, and down-staging show an AUC of 0.908, 0.902, and 0.930 in LARC patients, respectively.

Clinical and molecular diagnosis of pathologic complete response in rectal cancer: an update

INTRODUCTION

The standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer includes neoadjuvant chemoradiation with subsequent total mesorectal excision. This approach has shown various degrees of response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (ranging from complete response to further tumor growth), which have substantial prognostic and therapeutic implications. A total regression of the tumor is a predictor of superior oncologic outcomes compared with partial responders and non-responders. Further, this concept has opened the possibility of nonoperative strategies for complete responders and explains the widespread research interest in finding clinical, radiographic, pathologic, and biochemical parameters that allow for identification of these patients. Areas covered: The present review evaluates the most recent efforts in the literature to identify predictors of patients likely to achieve a complete response following neoadjuvant treatment for the management of rectal cancer. This includes clinical predictors of pathologic complete response such as tumor location, size, and stage, molecular predictors such as tumor biology and microRNA, serum biomarkers such as carcinoembryogenic antigen and nomograms. Expert commentary: There has been significant progress in our ability to predict pathological complete response. However, more high-quality research is still needed to use this concept to confidently dictate clinical management.

Pathologic response following treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer: Does location matter?

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in the treatment of rectal adenocarcinoma, the management of locally advanced disease remains a challenge. The standard of care for patients with stages II and III rectal cancer includes neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by total mesorectal excision and postoperative chemotherapy. Much effort has been dedicated to the identification of predictive factors associated with pathologic complete response (pCR). The aim of our study was to examine our institutional experience and determine whether any association exists between anatomic tumor location and the rate of pCR. We hypothesized that lesions more than 6 cm from the anal verge are more likely to achieve a pCR.

METHODS

Using data from our prospectively maintained tumor registry, a query was completed to identify all patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma who underwent treatment at Fox Chase Cancer Center from 2002 to 2015. Demographics, pretreatment, posttreatment, and final pathologic TNM staging data were collected as well as treatment intervals in days, recurrence status, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Patients with incomplete endoscopic data, staging information, survival, or recurrence status were excluded. The primary outcome measured was the degree of pathologic response. Logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

Of the 135 patients eligible in the study cohort, 39% were female and 61% were male. Regarding initial clinical stage, 43% were stage II and 57% were stage III. A total of 29% had a pCR, 43% had partial pathologic response, and 28% had no response to neoadjuvant treatment. Tumor location ranged from 0 to 13 cm from the anal verge. Longitudinal tumor length was recorded in 111 patients, facilitating the calculation of mean tumor distance from the anal verge. This ranged from 0 to 15.5 cm. Univariate and multivariable analyses were completed using pCR as a primary outcome. No statistically significant difference was noted based on tumor location, regardless of measurement approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Anatomic location of cancer of the rectum does not affect pCR after neoadjuvant therapy and subsequent surgical resection.

Morphologic predictors of pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose

To evaluate the value of morphological parameters that can be obtained conveniently by MRI for predicting pathologically complete response (pCR) in patients with rectal cancer.

Materials and Methods

A cohort of 101 patients was examined using MRI before and after Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Morphological parameters including maximum tumor area (MTA), maximum tumor length (MTL) and maximum tumor thickness (MTT), as well as cylindrical approximated tumor volume (CATV), distance to anal verge (DTA), and the reduction rates were evaluated by two experienced readers independently.

Results

Post-nCRT MTA and MTL, reduction rates and pre-nCRT DTA were proved to be significantly different between pCR and non-pCR with the AUCs of 0.672-0.853. The sensitivity and specificity for assessing pCR were 61.1-89.9% and 59.0-80.7% respectively. No significant correlation between pre-nCRT size measurements and pCR was obtained.

Conclusion

The convenient morphological measurements may be useful for predicting pCR with moderate sensitivity and specificity. Combining these predictors with the aim of building diagnostic model should be explored.

Clinical utility of pretreatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy response in rectal cancer: a review

Approximately 20% of all patients with locally advanced rectal cancer experience pathologically complete responses following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and standard surgery. The utility of radical surgery for patients exhibiting good CRT responses has been challenged. Organ-sparing strategies for selected patients exhibiting complete clinical responses include local excision or no immediate surgery. The subjects of this tailored management are patients whose presenting disease corresponds to current indications of neoadjuvant CRT, and their post-CRT tumor response is assessed by clinical and radiological examinations. However, a model predictive of the CRT response, applied before any treatment commenced, would be valuable to facilitate such a personalized approach. This would increase organ preservation, particularly in patients for whom upfront CRT is not generally prescribed. Molecular biomarkers hold the greatest promise for development of a pretreatment predictive model of CRT response. A combination of clinicopathological, radiological, and molecular markers will be necessary to render the model robust. Molecular research will also contribute to the development of drugs that can overcome the radioresistance of rectal tumors. Current treatments for rectal cancer are based on the expected prognosis given the presenting disease extent. In the future, treatment schemes may be modified by including the predicted CRT response evaluated at presentation.