Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival after radical nephroureterectomy in patients with nonmetastatic urothelial carcinoma of upper urinary tract

Robot-assisted nephroureterectomy: surgical and mid-term oncological outcomes in over 1100 patients (ROBUUST 2.0 collaborative group)

OBJECTIVE

To analyse surgical, functional, and mid-term oncological outcomes of robot-assisted nephroureterectomy (RANU) in a contemporary large multi-institutional setting.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were retrieved from the ROBotic surgery for Upper tract Urothelial cancer STtudy (ROBUUST) 2.0 database, an international, multicentre registry encompassing data of patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma undergoing curative surgery between 2015 and 2022. The analysis included all consecutive patients undergoing RANU except those with missing data in predictors. Detailed surgical, pathological, and postoperative functional data were recorded and analysed. Oncological time-to-event outcomes were: recurrence-free survival (RFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, with a 3-year cut-off. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was built to evaluate predictors of each oncological outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 1118 patients underwent RANU during the study period. The postoperative complications rate was 14.1%; the positive surgical margin rate was 4.7%. A postoperative median (interquartile range) estimated glomerular filtration rate decrease of -13.1 (-27.5 to 0) mL/min/1.73 m2 from baseline was observed. The 3-year RFS was 59% and the 3-year MFS was 76%, with a 3-year OS and CSS of 76% and 88%, respectively. Significant predictors of worse oncological outcomes were bladder-cuff excision, high-grade tumour, pathological T stage ≥3, and nodal involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study contributes to the growing body of evidence supporting the increasing adoption of RANU. The procedure consistently offers low surgical morbidity and can provide favourable mid-term oncological outcomes, mirroring those of open NU, even in non-organ-confined disease.

Preoperative Plasma Insulin-Like Growth Factor-I and Its Binding Proteins-Based Risk Stratification of Patients Treated With Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

We evaluate the predictive and prognostic value of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-1), IGF binding protein-2 (IGFBP-2) and -3 (IGFBP-3) in patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of a multi-institutional database comprising 753 patients who underwent RNU for UTUC and had a preoperative plasma available. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. The discriminative ability and clinical utility of the models was calculated using the lasso regression test, area under receiver operating characteristics curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Lower preoperative plasma levels of IGFBP-2 and -3 independently correlated with increased risks of lymph node metastasis, pT3/4 disease, nonorgan confined disease, and worse recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) (all P ≤ .004). The addition of both IGFBP-2 and -3 to a postoperative multivariable model, that included standard clinicopathologic characteristics, improved the model's concordance index by 10%, 9%, and 8% for RFS, CSS, and OS, respectively. On DCA, addition of both IGFBP-2 and -3 to base models improved their performance for RFS, CSS, and OS by a statistically and clinically significant margin. Plasma IGF-1 was not associated with any of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed that a lower plasma levels of IGFBP-2 and -3 both are independent and clinically significant predictors of adverse pathological features and survival outcomes in UTUC patients treated with RNU. These findings might help guide the clinical decision-making regarding perioperative systemic therapy and follow-up scheduling.

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in surgically treated nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We examined the effect of disease-free interval (DFI) duration on cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, otherwise known as the effect of conditional survival, in radical urethrectomy nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma (PUC) patients.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database 2000-2020, patient (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and marital status) and tumor (stage and histology) characteristics, as well as systemic therapy exposure status of nonmetastatic PUC patients were tabulated. Conditional survival estimates at 5-year were assessed based on DFI duration and according to stage at presentation (T1 -2N0 vs. T3-4N0-2).

RESULTS

Of all 512 radical urethrectomy PUC patients, 278 (54%) harbored T1-2N0 stage versus 234 (46%) harbored T3-4N0-2 stage. In 512 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 61.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 85.6%. In 278 T1-2N0 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 68.4%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 86.9%. In 234 T3-4N0-2 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 53.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 83.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although intuitively, clinicians and patients are well aware of the concept that increasing DFI duration improves survival probability, only a few clinicians can accurately estimate the magnitude of survival improvement, as was done within the current study. Such information is crucial to survivors, especially in those diagnosed with rare malignancies, where the survival estimation according to DFI duration is even more challenging.

Evaluation of histological variants of upper tract urothelial carcinoma as prognostic factor after radical nephroureterectomy

PURPOSE

To evaluate the impact of variant histology on patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) survival outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 519 patients underwent radical nephroureterectomy without neoadjuvant therapy for UTUC at a single institution between May 2003 and December 2019. Multivariate Cox regression analysis evaluated the impact of variant histology on progression-free survival (PFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among 84 patients (16.2%) with variant histology, the most frequent variant type was squamous cell differentiation (64.3%), followed by glandular differentiation (25.0%) and sarcomatoid variant (2.4%). They showed pathologically advanced T stage (for ≥ T3, 59.5% vs 33.3%, p < 0.001), higher tumor grade (96.4% vs 85.7%, p = 0.025), and higher rates of lymph node metastasis (17.9% vs 7.8%, p = 0.015), angiolymphatic invasion (41.7% vs 25.7%, p = 0.003), tumor necrosis (57.1% vs 29.0%, p < 0.001) and positive surgical margin (13.1% vs 5.7%, p = 0.015). On multivariate Cox regression analyses, variant histology was significantly associated with worse PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.55-3.21; p < 0.001), CSS (HR 2.67; 95% CI 1.35-5.30; p = 0.005) and OS (HR 2.22; 95% CI 1.27-3.88; p = 0.005). In subgroup analysis, no significant survival gains of adjuvant chemotherapy occurred in patients with variant histology.

CONCLUSIONS

Variant histology was associated with adverse pathologic features and poor survival outcomes. Our results suggest that patients with variant histology may require a close follow-up schedule and novel adjuvant therapy other than chemotherapy postoperatively.

Oncologic outcomes of patients treated with kidney-sparing surgery or radical nephroureterectomy for upper urinary tract urothelial cancer: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Although kidney-sparing surgery (KSS) is a nonminor option for low-risk upper urinary tract urothelial cancer (UTUC), its oncological benefits in high-risk UTUC remain unclear when compared to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). This study aimed to compare the oncological outcomes of RNU and KSS in patients with UTUC.

METHODS

We searched the SEER database for patients treated for primary non-metastatic UTUC with either RNU or a kidney-sparing approach (segmental ureterectomy (SU) or local tumor excision (LTE)) between 2004 and 2018.

RESULTS

The study included 6,659 patients with primary non-metastatic UTUC treated with surgery; 2,888 (43.4%) and 3,771 (56.6%) patients presented with ureteral and renal pelvicalyceal tumors, respectively. Finally, 5,479 (82.3%) patients underwent RNU, 799 (12.0%) were treated with SU, and 381 (5.7%) patients received LTE. For confounder control, propensity score matching (PSM) of patients treated with SU and RNU was performed to adjust for T stage, grade, age, gender, tumor size, and lymphadenectomy performance. PSM analysis included 694 patients treated with RNU and 694 individuals who underwent SU. In multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses, we found no difference in either CSS or OS between RNU and SU, even in the subgroup of high-grade and/or muscle-invasive UTUC including pT3-T4 tumors (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In this population-based study, SU provides equivalent CSS and OS compared to RNU, even in high-risk and locally advanced ureteral cancer. Due to the unavoidable risk of selection bias, further prospective studies are expected to overcome the limitations of this study and support the wider implementation of KSS.

Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Narrative Review of Current Surveillance Strategies for Non-Metastatic Disease

Non-metastatic upper urinary tract carcinoma (UTUC) is a comparatively rare condition, typically managed with either kidney-sparing surgery (KSS) or radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). Irrespective of the chosen therapeutic modality, patients with UTUC remain at risk of recurrence in the bladder; in patients treated with KSS, the risk of recurrence is high in the remnant ipsilateral upper tract system but there is a low but existent risk in the contralateral system as well as in the chest and in the abdomen/pelvis. For patients treated with RNU for high-risk UTUC, the risk of recurrence in the chest, abdomen, and pelvis, as well as the contralateral UT, depends on the tumor stage, grade, and nodal status. Hence, implementing a risk-stratified, location-specific follow-up is indicated to ensure timely detection of cancer recurrence. However, there are no data on the type and frequency/schedule of follow-up or on the impact of the recurrence type and site on outcomes; indeed, it is not well known whether imaging-detected asymptomatic recurrences confer a better outcome than recurrences detected due to symptoms/signs. Novel imaging techniques and more precise risk stratification methods based on time-dependent probabilistic events hold significant promise for making a cost-efficient individualized, patient-centered, outcomes-oriented follow-up strategy possible. We show and discuss the follow-up protocols of the major urologic societies.

Consultation on UTUC II Stockholm 2022: diagnostic and prognostic methods-what's around the corner?

PURPOSE

To map current literature and provide an overview of upcoming future diagnostic and prognostic methods for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), including translational medical science.

METHODS

A scoping review approach was applied to search the literature. Based on the published literature, and the experts own experience and opinions consensus was reached through discussions at the meeting Consultation on UTUC II in Stockholm, September 2022.

RESULTS

The gene mutational profile of UTUC correlates with stage, grade, prognosis, and response to different therapeutic strategies. Analysis of pathway proteins downstream of known pathogenic mutations might be an alternative approach. Liquid biopsies of cell-free DNA may detect UTUC with a higher sensitivity and specificity than urinary cytology. Extracellular vesicles from tumour cells can be detected in urine and may be used to identify the location of the urothelial carcinoma in the urinary tract. 3D microscopy of UTUC samples may add information in the analysis of tumour stage. Chemokines and chemokine receptors were linked to overall survival and responsiveness to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in muscle-invasive bladder cancer, which is potentially also of interest in UTUC.

CONCLUSION

Current diagnostic methods for UTUC have shortcomings, especially concerning prognostication, which is important for personalized treatment decisions. There are several upcoming methods that may be of interest for UTUC. Most have been studied for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder, and it is important to keep in mind that UTUC is a different entity and not all methods are adaptable or applicable to UTUC.

Design and rationale of a single-arm phase II study of neoadjuvant Durvalumab and Gemcitabine associated with Cisplatin or Carboplatin for upper urinary tract urothelial cancer: the iNDUCT trial (NCT04617756)

BACKGROUND

Upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is often locally advanced at initial diagnosis and is associated with high recurrence and mortality rates after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). Adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy has shown a recurrence-free survival benefit in a randomised phase III trial, while neoadjuvant treatment seems promising in retrospective series. On the contrary, little is known about the role of perioperative immunotherapy and its combination with chemotherapy for UTUC patients, although initial positive results have been published for muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

STUDY DESIGN AND ENDPOINTS

Against this backdrop, we are running a multi-centre single-arm phase 2 trial of neoadjuvant Durvalumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting programmed cell death ligand 1, combined with Gemcitabine and Cisplatin or Carboplatin for high-risk UTUC patients. The primary outcome is pathological complete response rate at RNU. Secondary endpoints include the partial pathological response rate, safety, as well as disease-free and overall survival. A biomarker analysis is also planned.

PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS

Included patients must have a good performance status and harbour a non-metastatic UTUC, considered at high risk of progression, defined as either biopsy-proven high-grade disease or invasive features at imaging with or, more recently, without high-grade cytology at the multidisciplinary team discretion, as specified in the latest amendment. Enrolled patients receive 3 cycles of neoadjuvant immuno-chemotherapy before RNU, and the standard of care thereafter. The trial is registered as NCT04617756 and is supervised by an independent data monitoring committee.

Conditional Survival in Prostate Cancer in the Nordic Countries Elucidates the Timing of Improvements

BACKGROUND

The incidence of prostate cancer (PC) increased vastly as a result of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Survival in PC improved in the PSA-testing era, but changes in clinical presentation have hampered the interpretation of the underlying causes.

DESIGN

We analyzed survival trends in PC using data from the NORDCAN database for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) by analyzing 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival and conditional relative survival over the course of 50 years (1971-2020).

RESULTS

In the pre-PSA era, survival improved in FI and SE and improved marginally in NO but not in DK. PSA testing began toward the end of the 1980s; 5-year survival increased by approximately 30%, and 10-year survival improved even more. Conditional survival from years 6 to 10 (5 years) was better than conditional survival from years 2 to 5 (4 years), but by 2010, this difference disappeared in countries other than DK. Survival in the first year after diagnosis approached 100%; by year 5, it was 95%; and by year 10, it was 90% in the best countries, NO and SE.

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of advances in diagnostics and treatment, further attention is required to improve PC survival.

Conditional survival of patients with low-risk prostate cancer: Temporal changes in active surveillance permanence over time

PURPOSE

To determine risk categories for patients with prostate cancer (PCa) in active surveillance (AS) and to test the conditional survival (CS) that examined the effect of event-free survival since AS-entrance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From January 2012 to December 2020 we analyzed 606 patients with PCa enrolled in our AS program. Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots depicted AS-exit rate. Multivariable Cox regression models (MCRMs) tested for AS-exit rate independent predictors to determine risk categories. CS estimates were used to calculate overall AS-exit rate after event-free survival intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 5 years, and after stratification according to risk categories.

RESULTS

At MCRMs PSAd ≥ 0.15 (HR: 1.43; P-value 0.04), PI-RADS 4-5 (HR: 2.56; P-value <0.001) and number of biopsy positive cores ≥ 2 (HR: 1.75; P-value <0.001) were independent predictors of AS-exit. These variables were used to determine risk categories: low-, intermediate- and high-risk. Overall, according to CS-analyses, 5-year AS-exit free rate increased from 59.7% at baseline, to 67.3%, 74.7%, and 89.4% in patients who remained in AS respectively ≥1, ≥2, ≥3 and ≥5 years. After stratification according to risk categories, in those patients who remained in AS ≥ 5 years, 5-year AS-exit free rates increased from 76.3% to 100% in patients with a low-risk, from 62.7% to 83.7% in patients with an intermediate-risk and from 42.3% to 87.5% in patients with a high-risk.

CONCLUSIONS

CS models showed a direct relationship between event-free survival duration and subsequent AS permanence in overall PCa patients and after stratification according to risk categories.

Conditional survival for non-metastatic muscle-invasive adenocarcinoma of the urinary bladder after radical cystectomy

PURPOSE

To test the effect of conditional survival on 36-months' cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival in non-metastatic muscle-invasive adenocarcinoma of the bladder (ACB).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2000-2018), ACB patients treated with radical cystectomy (RC) were identified. Multivariable competing risks regression (CRR) analyses assessed the independent predictor status of organ-confined (OC, T₂N₀M₀) vs non-organ-confined stage (NOC, T_3-4N₀M₀ or T_anyN_1-3M₀) on CSM. Conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were computed based on event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months after RC, according to stage.

RESULTS

Of 475 ACB patients, 132 (28%) harbored OC vs 343 (72%) harbored NOC stage. In multivariable CRR models, NOC vs OC stage independently predicted lower CSM (hazard ratio 3.55; 95% CI 2.66, 5.83; p < 0.001). Conversely, neither chemotherapy nor radiotherapy were independently associated with CSM. In OC stage, 36-months' CSM-free survival rate was 84% at baseline. Provided event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months, conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were 84, 87, 87, 89 and 89%. In NOC stage, 36-months' CSM-free survival rate was 47% at baseline. Provided event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months, conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were 51, 62, 69, 78 and 85%.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional survival estimates provide better insight into survival of patients with longer event-free follow-up. In consequence, conditional survival estimates might be highly valuable for individual patient counselling.

Geriatric nutritional risk index as a prognostic marker for patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma receiving radical nephroureterectomy

To investigate the prognostic value of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in patients with upper tract urothelial cell carcinoma (UTUC) receiving radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). Between January 2001 and December 2015, we enrolled 488 patients with UTUC underwent RNU in Taichung Veterans General Hospital. GNRI before radical surgery was calculated based on serum albumin level and body mass index. The malnutritional status was defined as GNRI < 92.0. Using Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazards models to analyze the risk factors on disease-free survival (DFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). 386 patients were categorized as normal nutritional status (GNRI ≥ 92) and 102 patients as malnutritional status (GNRI < 92). We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for determined the association between GNRI and OS, with area under the curve (AUC) being 0.69. The 5-year survival rate of DFS, CSS and OS were 48.6%, 80.5% and 80.5% in the normal nutritional group and 28.0%, 53.2% and 40% in the malnutritional group. Using the multivariate analysis, malnutritional status was found as an independent risk factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.70-5.74), together with age (HR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06), surgical margin positive (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.13-2.82), pathological T3 (HR = 2.54, 95% CI 1.53-4.21), pathological T4 (HR = 6.75, 95% CI 3.17-14.37) and lymphovascular invasion (HR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.16-2.81). We also found GNRI index as independent risk factor in DFS (HR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.42-2.54) and CSS (HR = 5.42, 95% CI 3.24-9.06). Preoperative malnutritional status with low GNRI is an independent marker in predicting DFS, CSS and OS in UTUC patients underwent RNU.

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in surgically treated adrenocortical carcinoma patients: A stage-specific analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We examined the effect of disease-free interval (DFI) duration on cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, otherwise known as the effect of conditional survival, in surgically treated adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) patients.

METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004-2018), 867 ACC patients treated with adrenalectomy were identified. Conditional survival estimates at 5-years were assessed based on DFI duration and according to stage at presentation. Separate Cox regression models were fitted at baseline and according to DFI.

RESULTS

Overall, 406 (47%), 285 (33%), and 176 (20%) patients were stage I-II, III and IV, respectively. In conditional survival analysis, providing a DFI of 24 months, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis increased from 66% to 80% in stage I-II, from 35% to 66% in stage III, and from 14% to 36% in stage IV. In multivariable Cox regression models, stage III (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.38; p < 0.001) and IV (HR: 4.67; p < 0.001) independently predicted higher CSM, relative to stage I-II. The magnitude of this effect decreased over time, providing increasing DFI duration.

CONCLUSIONS

In surgically treated ACC, survival probabilities increase with longer DFI duration. This improvement is more pronounced in stage III, followed by stages IV and I-II patients, in that order. Survival estimates accounting for DFI may prove valuable in patients counseling.

Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients treated with chemotherapy: a SEER-based retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To establish a prognostic nomogram among UTUC patients who received chemotherapy.

METHODS

1195 UTUC patients who received chemotherapy were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period between 2004 and 2015. Patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation set. Nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) in those patients. Receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROCs), calibration plots, and Decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to assess and compare the discrimination, accuracy, and practicability of the nomogram with 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system.

RESULTS

Six clinical parameters were identified as independent prognostic factors for UTUC patients' OS, including age, marital status, TNM stage, and surgical methods of the primary site. The ROC curves showed a satisfactory discrimination capacity of the nomogram, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under curve (AUC) values of 0.789, 0.772, and 0.763 in the training set and 0.772, 0.822, and 0.814 in the validation set, respectively. Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. ROC and DCA curves showed our nomograms exhibited larger benefits than the 8th AJCC-TNM staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic nomogram was established and validated to present individual predictions of OS among chemotherapeutic UTUC patients. This nomogram may assist clinicians in accurate survival prognostication, treatment decision-making, and design of future clinical trials.

French AFU Cancer Committee Guidelines - Update 2022-2024: Upper urinary tract urothelial cancer (UTUC)

INTRODUCTION

The aim was to propose an update of the French Urology Association Cancer Committee (ccAFU) Recommendations on the management of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinomas (UUT-UC).

METHODS

A systematic Medline search was performed between 2020 and 2022, taking account of the diagnosis, treatment options and follow-up of UUT-UC, while evaluating the references with their levels of evidence.

RESULTS

The diagnosis of this rare pathology is based on CTU acquisition during excretion and flexible ureterorenoscopy with histological biopsies. Radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) remains the gold standard for surgical treatment. Nevertheless conservative treatment can be discussed for low risk lesions: tumour of low-grade, with no infiltration on imaging, unifocal<2cm, eligible for full treatment therefore requiring close endoscopic surveillance by flexible ureteroscopy in compliant patients. After RNU, postoperative instillation of chemotherapy is recommended to reduce the risk of recurrence in the bladder. Adjuvant chemotherapy has shown clinical benefits compared to surveillance after RNU for tumours (pT2-T4 N0-3 M0).

CONCLUSION

These updated recommendations should contribute to improving not only patients' level of care, but also the diagnosis and decision-making concerning treatment for UUT-UC.

S-phase - an independent prognostic marker in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate S-phase fraction as a predictor of invasiveness and cancer-specific survival in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

One hundred and fifteen patients having undergone radical nephroureterectomy were analysed with histology in radical nephroureterectomy specimens as reference test and S-phase fraction as index test. Ploidy and S-phase were determined using flow cytometry. Differences in S-phase fraction were calculated between stages, grades (WHO 1999 and 2004 classifications), ploidy and patients that died of UTUC and those who did not. Five- and 10-year-cancer-specific survivals were calculated. Areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of S-phase fraction in relation to tumour stage and to death from UTUC were measured. Multiple Cox regression was performed.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic markers of death from UTUC were S-phase fraction and stage. Correlation between S-phase fraction and risk of dying from UTUC was strong, with a 17% greater risk of death from UTUC with every 1% increase in S-phase fraction, hazard ratio = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.10-1.25, p < 0.001, Spearman's rho ρ = 0.65. AUCs for S-phase fraction as predictors of stage and death from UTUC were 0.8 (95% CI = 0.705-0.894) and 0.77 (95% CI = 0.67-0.87), respectively. Cancer-specific survival was statistically significantly different between stages, ploidy and WHO 1999 grades, but not between WHO 2004 grades. This was also reflected in S-phase fraction, which differed in LG-G1 compared with LG-G2 and in HG-G2 compared with HG-G3.

CONCLUSION

S-phase fraction was a good test for predicting both invasiveness and cancer-specific survival. Using both WHO 1999 and 2004 classifications, rather than one system alone, had a higher predictive value of cancer-specific survival.

Conditional cause-specific survival after chemotherapy and local treatment for primary stage IV breast cancer: A population-based study

Background

Conditional survival (CS) represents the probability of surviving for additional years after the patient has survived for several years, dynamically describing the survival rate of the patient with the varying time of survival. The aim of this study was to evaluate the conditional cause-specific survival (CCSS) after chemotherapy and local treatment for metastatic breast cancer, and to identify the prognostic factors affecting the CCSS.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with primary stage IV breast cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 were included. CS is defined as the probability of additional survival for y years after the patient had survived x years with the calculation formula CCSS (x | y) = CSS (x + y)/CSS (x), where CSS(x) indicates the patient’s cause-specific survival rate at the time of x years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate predictors of CCSS.

Results

A total of 3,194 patients were included. The 5-year CSS was 39%, whereas the 5-year CCSS increased to 46%, 57%, 71%, and 85% after the diagnosis of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years. For patients with adverse clinical pathological features, CCSS had more pronounced increase with survival time and is more different from the CSS at diagnosis. No matter at the time of diagnosis or 1 year or 3 years after diagnosis, HER2 status, local treatment, and multisite metastasis were independent prognostic factors that affect the long-term survival of patients (all P &lt; 0.05).

Conclusion

The 5-year CCSS of patients with stage IV breast cancer was extended as the survival years increased. HER2 status, multisite metastasis, and local treatment were independent prognostic factors even 3 years after diagnosis.

Conditional survival after surgical resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors: a population-based study

Background

The purpose of this study was to assess conditional survival (CS) after resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors (RPTs).

Methods

The data of 1594 patients with primary RPTs who underwent surgery between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 3 years after the patient had survived x years, according to the formulas: COS3 = OS (x + 3) /OS (x) and CCSS3 = CSS (x + 3)/CSS (x).

Results

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of all patients were 89.8, 71.8, and 60.8%, while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates were 91.9, 77.1, and 67.8%, respectively. Age, sex, FNCLCC grade, size, multifocality, histology, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Among patients who survived for 1, 3, and 5 years, the COS3 rates were 72.9, 77.9, and 79.3%, and the CCSS3 rates were 78.1, 82.7, and 85.8%, respectively. Patients with poor clinicopathological characteristics achieved greater improvements in COS3 and CCSS3 rates, and the survival gaps between OS and COS3, as well as CSS and CCSS3 were more obvious.

Conclusion

Postoperative CS of RPTs was dynamic and increased over time. CS increased more significantly in patients with poor clinicopathological characteristics.

Prognostic factors in patients with small renal masses: a comparison between <2 vs. 2.1-4 cm renal cell carcinomas

BACKGROUND

Few data factually support the prognostic distinction between renal cell carcinomas (RCC) < 2 vs. 2.1-4 cm, in terms of cancer-specific mortality (CSM). We investigated CSM rates over time in <2 vs. 2.1-4 cm RCC, according to patient and tumor characteristics.

METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we focused on patients with T_1aN₀M₀ RCC who underwent either radical or partial nephrectomy between 2000 and 2015. Temporal trends, Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariable Cox-regression analyses assessed CSM.

RESULTS

Of 43,147 T_1aN₀M₀ patients, 12,238 (28.4%) harbored RCC < 2 cm and 30,909 (71.6%) 2.1-4 cm RCC. The distribution of histological subtypes according to 2 cm cut-off was as follows: a). clear-cell G1/G2: 64.5 vs. 61.8%; b). papillary G1/G2 15.9 vs. 11.1%; c). clear-cell G3/G4: 9.9 vs. 16.1%; d). papillary G3/G4 4.9 vs. 5.4%; and e). chromophobe 4.9 vs. 5.2%. Five-year CSM rates were invariably lower in RCC < 2 cm than in 2.1-4 cm, for all histological subtypes and grade groups (a-e), even after additional multivariable adjustment for age and residual tumor size differences. 5-year CSM rates improved in more contemporary years, in both tumor size groups (< 2 vs. 2.1-4 cm), but to a greater extent in 2.1-4 cm renal masses.

CONCLUSION

Our results validate the presence of prognostically more favorable CSM outcomes in RCC < 2 cm vs. 2.1-4 cm, across all histological subtypes and grades. Moreover, temporal improvements were also recorded in both <2 and 2.1-4 cm RCC groups, with more pronounced improvements in patients with 2.1-4 cm renal masses. However, prospective randomized trials are needed to further confirm our results.

Conditional Survival of female patients with operable invasive Breast Cancer in US: A population-based study

Background: Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe the dynamic possibility of survival, considering the changes of death risk with time lapsing. This study aimed to estimate the conditional disease-specific survival (CDS) for the female with operable invasive breast cancer.

Methods: The data was obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program of the National Cancer Institute. The hazard rate was calculated using kernel density smoothing method. The disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were estimated and compared using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The Cox regression model was used to adjust confounding factors. The CDS was calculated by CDS(y|x)=DSS(x + y)/DSS(x), where DSS(x) representatives the DSS at x year.

Results: The 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year DSS was 88.7%, 82.0%, and 78.3%, respectively. The hazard rate after surgery increased initially and peaked at about 1.5 years, then decreased gradually. Meanwhile, the CDS decreased just after surgery then increased continuously, which showed a contrary trend with hazard rate. Patients with high risk factors had greater survival gap between cumulative DSS and CDS. The changing trend of CDS in patients with high risk factors was more significant, and the CDS gap between low-risk patients and high-risk patients gradually decreased over time.

Conclusion: CS could provide a more precise long-term prognostic evaluation compared to traditional cumulative survival, especially for long-time survivors with high risk.

Conditional survival after surgery for patients with penile cancer

BACKGROUND

Penile cancer represents a rare pathology whose natural history of treatment is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate the dynamic survival profiles in surgically treated patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP) using the conditional survival (CS) estimates.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with non-metastatic SCCP were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Conditional 3-yr overall survival (OS) rate and 3-yr cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate represented the primary outcomes of interest and were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The multivariable Cox regression model was employed to calculate proportional hazard ratios for the prediction of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1887 SCCP patients who had undergone surgeries were identified. Given a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-yr survivorship, the 3-yr OS rates were, respectively, improved by + 9.8 (72.6%), +18.2 (78.1%), +23.4 (81.6%), +27.8 (84.5%), and + 26.6% (83.7%) from those calculated at baseline (time zero). As compared with the baseline calculations, patients who had survived 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 yr after surgery could, respectively, harvest a + 7.8 (84.7%), +14.8 (90.2%), +19.5 (93.9%), +22.1 (96.0%), and + 22.4% (96.2%) improvement in 3-yr CSS. Patients with the most aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefited the most from event-free survivorship. Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that the impact of adverse pathological parameters (G2-3, ≥ pT2, pN+) on OS and CSS mostly showed a decreasing trend over time and some could disappear after a minimum of 1-yr survivorship.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The survival probability of SCCP patients increases with post-operative survival. Patients with aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefit the most from event-free survivorship and may expect a better prognosis once they survive the critical few years after surgery. The recorded observations have crucial implications regarding patient counseling and follow-up.