Adaptive increase in sample size when interim results are promising: a practical guide with examples

Extending the time window for tenecteplase by effective reperfusion of penumbral tissue in patients with large vessel occlusion: Rationale and design of a multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint, controlled phase 3 trial

RATIONALE

The benefit of tenecteplase in the treatment of large vessel occlusion (LVO) patients presenting within 24 h of symptom onset remains unclear.

AIM

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of tenecteplase, compared to standard of care, in patients presenting within the first 24 h of symptom onset with an LVO and target mismatch on perfusion computed tomography (CT).

METHODS AND DESIGN

The "Extending the time window for Tenecteplase by Effective Reperfusion of peNumbrAL tissue in patients with Large Vessel Occlusion" (ETERNAL-LVO) trial is a prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint, phase 3, parallel-group, superiority trial with covariate-adjusted 1:1 randomization, and adaptive sample size re-estimation. Patients with an anterior circulation LVO stroke, who present within 24 h of stroke onset or last known well with a target mismatch on computed tomography perfusion (CTP) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), will be randomized to tenecteplase (0.25 mg/kg) or standard of care (alteplase 0.90 mg/kg or conservative management at clinician discretion) prior to undergoing endovascular therapy.

STUDY OUTCOMES

The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of 0-1 (no disability) or return to baseline mRS at 3 months. Secondary and safety outcomes include the proportion of patients with an mRS of 0-2 at 3 months, an ordinal analysis of the mRS at 3 months, the proportion of patients with symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH), the proportion of patients with death due to any cause, and the proportion of patients with mRS 5-6 at 3 months (severe disability or death).

DISCUSSION

The ETERNAL-LVO trial will build on the current evidence for tenecteplase in the > 4.5-h window. Specifically, this trial will evaluate tenecteplase in a patient population who have access to endovascular therapy but may incur delays to endovascular therapy commencement or require transfer from a primary to a comprehensive stroke center.

TRIALS REGISTRATION

ClincialTrials.gov: NCT04454788.

Sample Size Adjustment in Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials

Clinical trials are often designed based on limited information about effect sizes and precision parameters with risks of underpowered studies. This is more problematic for SMARTs where strategy effects are based on sequences of treatments. Sample size adjustment offers flexibility through re-estimating sample size during the trial to ensure adequate power at the final analysis. While this adaptation is common for standard clinical trials, corresponding methods to perform sample size adjustment have not been adapted to SMARTs. In this paper, we propose a sample size adjustment procedure for SMARTs. Sample sizes are re-calculated at the interim analysis based on the conditional power derived from a bivariate non-central chi-square distribution. We demonstrate through simulation studies that even with an underpowered initial sample size due to miss-specified parameters at the design stage, the proposed method can maintain desirable power at the end of the study, and additional resources are only invested in trials that show promising conditional power at the interim analysis.

Efficacy and safety of a novel oral hydrogel capsule in adults with overweight or obesity: the pivotal randomized RESET study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of the Epitomee capsule versus placebo as an adjunct to high-intensity lifestyle intervention in participants with overweight or obesity.

METHODS

The Randomized Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of the Epitomee Capsule Trial (RESET) was a prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled pivotal trial in adults with baseline BMI of 27.0 to 40.0 kg/m2. The co-primary endpoints at week 24 were percentage change from baseline in body weight for the Epitomee and placebo groups and proportion of Epitomee-treated patients achieving ≥5% weight loss compared with a 35% threshold. The primary safety endpoint was the incidence of device-related serious adverse events.

RESULTS

A total of 138 participants received Epitomee and 141 received placebo. Mean (SD) change in body weight from baseline was -6.6% (6.5%) with Epitomee and -4.6% ( 4.7%) with placebo; least-squares means were -6.1% (0.6%) and -4.2% (0.6%), respectively (p = 0.0054). Fifty-six percent of Epitomee-treated participants attained ≥5% weight loss from baseline, which was significantly greater than the 35% predefined threshold (p < 0.0001). Twenty-seven percent of Epitomee-treated and eleven percent of placebo-treated participants achieved ≥10% weight loss. Adverse event rates were similar between the groups. No device-related serious adverse events occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

The Epitomee capsule is a safe and efficacious nonpharmacological option for weight management with potential broad application in participants with overweight or obesity.

TAD-SIE: sample size estimation for clinical randomized controlled trials using a Trend-Adaptive Design with a Synthetic-Intervention-Based Estimator

BACKGROUND

Phase-3 clinical trials provide the highest level of evidence on drug safety and effectiveness needed for market approval by implementing large randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, 30-40% of these trials fail mainly because such studies have inadequate sample sizes, stemming from the inability to obtain accurate initial estimates of average treatment effect parameters.

METHODS

To remove this obstacle from the drug development cycle, we present a new algorithm called Trend-Adaptive Design with a Synthetic-Intervention-Based Estimator (TAD-SIE) that powers a parallel-group trial, a standard RCT design, by leveraging a state-of-the-art hypothesis testing strategy and a novel trend-adaptive design (TAD). Specifically, TAD-SIE uses synthetic intervention (SI) to estimate individual treatment effects and thereby simulate a cross-over design, which makes it easier for a trial to reach target power within trial constraints (e.g., sample size limits). To estimate sample sizes, TAD-SIE implements a new TAD tailored to SI given that using it violates assumptions under standard TADs. In addition, our TAD overcomes the ineffectiveness of standard TADs by allowing sample sizes to be increased across iterations without any condition while controlling significance level with futility stopping. Our TAD also introduces a hyperparameter that enables trial designers to trade off between accuracy and efficiency (sample size and number of iterations) of the solution.

RESULTS

On a real-world Phase-3 clinical RCT (i.e., a two-arm parallel-group superiority trial with an equal number of subjects per arm), TAD-SIE obtains operating points ranging between 63% to 84% power and 3% to 6% significance level in contrast to baseline algorithms that get at best 49% power and 6% significance level.

CONCLUSION

TAD-SIE is a superior TAD that can be used to reach typical target operating points but only for trials with rapidly measurable primary outcomes due to its sequential nature. The framework is useful to practitioners interested in leveraging the SI algorithm for their study design.

Past, present, and future of Phase 3 vaccine trial design: rethinking statistics for the 21st century

Vaccines are crucial for protecting health globally; however, their widespread use relies on rigorous clinical development programmes. This includes Phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to confirm their safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy. Traditionally, such trials used fixed designs with predetermined assumptions, lacking the flexibility to change during the trial or stop early due to overwhelming evidence of either efficacy or futility. Modern vaccine trials benefit from innovative approaches like adaptive designs, allowing for planned trial adaptations based on accumulating data. Here, we provide an overview of the evolution of Phase 3 vaccine trial design and statistical analysis methods from traditional to more innovative contemporary methods. This includes adaptive trial designs, which offer ethical advantages and enable early termination if indicated; Bayesian methods, which combine prior knowledge and observed trial data to increase efficiency and enhance result interpretation; modern statistical analysis methods, which enable more accurate and precise inferences; the estimand framework, which ensures the primary question of interest is addressed in a trial; novel approaches using machine learning methods to assess heterogeneity of treatment effects; and statistical advances in safety analysis to evaluate reactogenicity and clinical adverse events. We conclude with insights into the future direction of vaccine trials, aiming to inform clinicians and researchers about conventional and novel RCT design and analysis approaches to facilitate the conduct of efficient, timely trials.

Practical considerations of promising zone design for interim sample size Re-estimation: An application to GRAPHITE for graft vs host disease

BACKGROUND

Sample size calculation and power estimate are an integral part of clinical trials. With accelerated development to address the unmet medical needs, the fast-paced development may lead to uncertainties in initial planning and assumptions of clinical trials. Promising zone design presents sponsors an opportunity to re-estimate the sample size based on the interim data to mitigate risks, reduce uncertainties, and increase probability of trial success.

METHODS

This paper aims to use the GRAPHITE trial (NCT03657160) as a real data application to showcase the practical considerations in implementation of promising zone design for interim sample size re-estimation (SSR), in light of sample size adaptation rules, maximum sample size allowed, multiplicity adjustment, and sponsor access to interim results. GRAPHITE is a phase 3 trial with vedolizumab for prophylaxis of acute graft vs host disease (aGvHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (allo-HSCT). The primary efficacy endpoint is lower intestinal aGVHD-free survival by Day +180 after allo-HSCT. A simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the evaluation of operating characteristics by various true underlying treatment effects at the design stage.

CONCLUSION

The application of promising zone design for interim SSR is novel and has successfully helped the sponsor achieve the balance between minimizing the risks and maintaining scientific integrity. This work aims to highlight the necessity of empirical guidance to gain better insights for clinical researchers in practice and is expected to facilitate the understanding and implementation of promising zone design for interim SSR in phase 3 trials.

Sample Size Reestimation in Stochastic Curtailment Tests With Time-to-Events Outcome in the Case of Nonproportional Hazards Utilizing Two Weibull Distributions With Unknown Shape Parameters

Stochastic curtailment tests for Phase II two-arm trials with time-to-event end points are traditionally performed using the log-rank test. Recent advances in designing time-to-event trials have utilized the Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter estimated from historical studies. As sample size calculations depend on the value of this shape parameter, these methods either cannot be used or likely underperform/overperform when the natural variation around the point estimate is ignored. We demonstrate that when the magnitude of the Weibull shape parameters changes, unblinded interim information on the shape of the survival curves can be useful to enrich the final analysis for reestimation of the sample size. For such scenarios, we propose two Bayesian solutions to estimate the natural variations of the Weibull shape parameter. We implement these approaches under the framework of the newly proposed relative time method that allows nonproportional hazards and nonproportional time. We also demonstrate the sample size reestimation for the relative time method using three different approaches (internal pilot study approach, conditional power, and predictive power approach) at the interim stage of the trial. We demonstrate our methods using a hypothetical example and provide insights regarding the practical constraints for the proposed methods.

Ferric carboxymaltose for anemia in late pregnancy: a randomized controlled trial

Over 46% of African pregnant women are anemic. Oral iron is recommended but often suboptimal, particularly late in pregnancy. Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) could treat anemia in women in the third trimester in sub-Saharan Africa. In an open-label, individually randomized trial in antenatal clinics in southern Malawi, we randomized 590 women at 27-35 weeks of gestation with capillary hemoglobin <10.0 g dl-1 to FCM (20 mg kg-1 up to 1,000 mg, once at enrollment) or standard of care (60 mg elemental iron, twice daily for 90 days). Participants and their infants were followed to 4 weeks postpartum. Primary outcomes were maternal anemia at 36 weeks' gestation or delivery (whichever occurred first) and neonatal birthweight. At the primary timepoint, 126 of 270 (46.7%) of women in the FCM group were anemic, compared to 170 of 271 (67.3%) women in the standard-of-care group (PR, 0.74 (95% CI 0.64, 0.87); P = 0.0002). There was no difference between groups in birthweight (mean difference 10.9 g (-65.7, 87.5 g); P = 0.78). No serious infusion-related reactions occurred, and there were no differences in adverse events between groups. In Malawian women in late pregnancy, FCM effectively and safely reduced anemia before childbirth. Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial registration: ANZCTR12621001239853.

Clinical Trial Design Considerations for Hospitalised Patients With Ulcerative Colitis Flares and Application to Study Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy in the NIDDK HBOT-UC Consortium

BACKGROUND

Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) who are hospitalised for acute severe flares represent a high-risk orphan population.

AIM

To provide guidance for clinical trial design methodology in these patients.

METHODS

We created a multi-centre consortium to design and conduct a clinical trial for a novel therapeutic intervention (hyperbaric oxygen therapy) in patients with UC hospitalised for moderate-severe flares. During planning, we identified and addressed specific gaps for inclusion/exclusion criteria; disease activity measures; pragmatic trial design considerations within care pathways for hospitalised patients; standardisation of care delivery; primary and secondary outcomes; and sample size and statistical analysis approaches.

RESULTS

The Truelove-Witt criteria should not be used in isolation. Endoscopy is critical for defining eligible populations. Patient-reported outcomes should include rectal bleeding and stool frequency, with secondary measurement of urgency and nocturnal bowel movements. Trial design needs to be tailored to care pathways, with early intervention focused on replacing and/or optimising responsiveness to steroids and later interventions focused on testing novel rescue agents or strategies. The PRECIS-2 framework offers a means of tailoring to local populations. We provide standardisation of baseline testing, venous thromboprophylaxis, steroid dosing, discharge criteria and post-discharge follow-up to avoid confounding by usual care variability. Statistical considerations are provided given the small clinical trial nature of this population.

CONCLUSION

We provide an outline for framework decisions made for the hyperbaric oxygen trial in patients hospitalised for UC flares. Future research should focus on the remaining gaps identified.

Radial artery catheterization using a novel T-type ultrasound probe: a single-center randomized study

Ultrasound guidance has been reported to facilitate radial artery catheterization compared with the palpation method. However, a recent meta-analysis showed that there was not significant differences in the first attempt success rate between the long-axis in-plane (LA-IP) method and the short-axis out-of-plane method. In 2023, we started using a novel T-type probe. We can recognize the needle first during the radial artery access with the short-axis view and then dose it with the long-axis view using the T-type probe. Therefore, we hypothesized that the T-type probe-guided method might heighten the first attempt success rate in radial artery catheterization, even for non-expert practitioners, compared with the LA-IP technique. One hundred and fifty adult patients, older than 20 years, ASA I to III, were randomly assigned to the T-type probe-guided group (Group T: n = 75) or the LA-IP group (Group L: n = 75). The primary outcome was the first attempt success rate. The first attempt success rate in Group T (49/71, 69%) was significantly higher than that in Group L (31/68, 46%) (p = 0.0062). The present study showed that the T-type probe might facilitate the radial artery catheterization rather than the LA-IP method.

Statistical considerations for cardiovascular clinical trials straddling the continuum of pandemic phases

In 2020, the NIH and FDA issued guidance documents that laid the foundation for human subject research during an unprecedented pandemic. To bridge these general considerations to actual applications in cardiovascular interventional device trials, the PAndemic Impact on INTErventional device ReSearch (PAIINTERS) Working Group was formed in early 2021 under the Predictable And Sustainable Implementation Of National CardioVascular Registries (PASSION CV Registries). The PAIINTER's Part I report, published by Rymer et al. [5], provided a comprehensive overview of the operational impact on interventional studies during the first year of the Pandemic. PAIINTERS Part II focused on potential statistical issues related to bias, variability, missing data, and study power when interventional studies may start and end in different pandemic phases. Importantly, the paper also offers practical mitigation strategies to adjust or minimize the impact for both SATs and RCTs, providing a valuable resource for researchers and professionals involved in cardiovascular clinical trials.

The win ratio in cardiology trials: lessons learnt, new developments, and wise future use

The win ratio method for analysing a composite clinical hierarchy of outcomes is growing in popularity especially in cardiovascular trials. This article gives a perspective on its use so far and the issues derived from that experience. Specifically, it focuses on the limitations of a conventional composite outcome; how does the win ratio work, what does it mean, and how to display its findings; guidance on choosing an appropriate clinical hierarchy of outcomes including clinical events, quantitative outcomes, and other options; the additional value of the win difference as a measure of absolute benefit: extension to stratified win ratio, subgroup analysis, matched win ratio, and covariate adjustment; determining trial size for a win ratio outcome; specific insights such as adaptive designs, use of repeat events, and use of margins and time averages for quantitative outcomes; a critique of potential misuses; availability of statistical software; and a statistical appendix on the methodological details. Throughout, each principle is illustrated by examples from specific cardiology trials. The article concludes with a set of recommendations for future use of the win ratio.

Delta Inflation, Optimism Bias, and Uncertainty in Clinical Trials

The phenomenon of delta inflation, in which design treatment effects tend to exceed observed treatment effects, has been documented in several therapeutic areas. Delta inflation has often been attributed to investigators' optimism bias, or an unwarranted belief in the efficacy of new treatments. In contrast, we argue that delta inflation may be a natural consequence of clinical equipoise, that is, genuine uncertainty about the relative benefits of treatments before a trial is initiated. We review alternative methodologies that can offer more direct evidence about investigators' beliefs, including Bayesian priors and forecasting analysis. The available evidence for optimism bias appears to be mixed, and can be assessed only where uncertainty is expressed explicitly at the trial design stage.

Intensified versus standard dose infliximab induction therapy for steroid-refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (PREDICT-UC): an open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The optimal dosing strategy for infliximab in steroid-refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is unknown. We compared intensified and standard dose infliximab rescue strategies and explored maintenance therapies following infliximab induction in ASUC.

METHODS

In this open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial, patients aged 18 years or older from 13 Australian tertiary hospitals with intravenous steroid-refractory ASUC were randomly assigned (1:2) to receive a first dose of 10 mg/kg infliximab or 5 mg/kg infliximab (randomisation 1). Block randomisation was used and stratified by history of thiopurine exposure and study site, with allocation concealment maintained via computer-generated randomisation. Patients in the 10 mg/kg group (intensified induction strategy [IIS]) received a second dose at day 7 or earlier at the time of non-response; all patients in the 5 mg/kg group were re-randomised between day 3 and day 7 (1:1; randomisation 2) to a standard induction strategy (SIS) or accelerated induction strategy (AIS), resulting in three induction groups. Patients in the SIS group received 5 mg/kg infliximab at weeks 0, 2, and 6, with an extra 5 mg/kg dose between day 3 and day 7 if no response. Patients in the AIS group received 5 mg/kg infliximab at weeks 0, 1, and 3, with the week 1 dose increased to 10 mg/kg and given between day 3 and day 7 if no response. The primary outcome was clinical response by day 7 (reduction in Lichtiger score to <10 with a decrease of ≥3 points from baseline, improvement in rectal bleeding, and decreased stool frequency to ≤4 per day). Secondary endpoints assessed outcomes to day 7 and exploratory outcomes compared induction regimens until month 3. From month 3, maintenance therapy was selected based on treatment experience, with use of thiopurine monotherapy, combination infliximab and thiopurine, or infliximab monotherapy, with follow-up as a cohort study up to month 12. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02770040, and is completed.

FINDINGS

Between July 20, 2016, and Sept 24, 2021, 138 patients were randomly assigned (63 [46%] female and 75 [54%] male); 46 received a first dose of 10 mg/kg infliximab and 92 received 5 mg/kg infliximab. After randomisation 1, we observed no significant difference in the proportion of patients who had a clinical response by day 7 between the 10 mg/kg and 5 mg/kg groups (30 [65%] of 46 vs 56 [61%] of 92, p=0·62; risk ratio adjusted for thiopurine treatment history, 1·06 [95% CI 0·94-1·20], p=0·32). We found no significant differences in secondary endpoints including time to clinical response or change in Lichtiger score from baseline to day 7. Two patients who received 10 mg/kg infliximab underwent colectomy in the first 7 days compared with no patients in the 5 mg/kg group (p=0·21). Three serious adverse events occurred in three patients in both the 10 mg/kg group and 5 mg/kg group. After randomisation 2, the proportions of patients with clinical response at day 14 (34 [74%] of 46 in the IIS group, 35 [73%] of 48 in the AIS group, and 30 [68%] of 44 in the SIS group, p=0·81), clinical remission at month 3 (23 [50%], 25 [52%], 21 [48%], p=0·92), steroid-free remission at month 3 (19 [41%], 20 [42%], 18 [41%], p=1·0), endoscopic remission at month 3 (21 [46%], 22 [46%], 21 [48%], p=0·98), and colectomy at month 3 (three [7%] of 45, nine [19%] of 47, five [12%] of 43, p=0·20) were not significantly different between groups. Between day 8 and month 3, the proportion of patients with at least one infectious adverse event possibly related to infliximab was two (4%) of 46 in the IIS group, eight (17%) of 48 in the AIS group, and eight (18%) of 44 in the SIS group (p=0·082). No deaths occurred in the study.

INTERPRETATION

Infliximab is a safe and effective rescue therapy in ASUC. In steroid-refractory ASUC, a first dose of 10 mg/kg infliximab was not superior to 5 mg/kg infliximab in achieving clinical response by day 7. Intensified, accelerated, and standard induction regimens did not result in a significant difference in clinical response by day 14 or in remission or colectomy rates by month 3.

FUNDING

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Gastroenterology Society of Australia, Gandel Philanthropy, Australian Postgraduate Award, Janssen-Cilag.

Adaptive Clinical Trials in Stroke

Designing a clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy of an intervention is often complicated by uncertainty over aspects of the study population, potential treatment effects, most relevant outcomes, dropouts, and other factors. However, once participants begin to be enrolled and partial trial data become available, this level of uncertainty is reduced. Adaptive clinical trials are designed to take advantage of the accumulating data during the conduct of a trial to make changes according to prespecified decision rules to increase the likelihood of success or statistical efficiency. Common adaptive rules address early stopping for benefit or futility, sample size reestimation, adding or dropping treatment arms or altering randomization ratios, and changing the eligibility criteria to focus on responder patient subgroups. Adaptive clinical trials are gaining popularity for clinical stroke research. We provide an overview of the methods, practical considerations, challenges and limitations, and potential future role of adaptive clinical trials in advancing knowledge and practice in stroke.

Adaptive Trials in Stroke: Current Use and Future Directions

Inclusion of adaptive design features in a clinical trial provides preplanned flexibility to dynamically modify a trial during its conduct while preserving validity and integrity. Adaptive trials are needed to accelerate the conduct of more efficient, informative, and ethical clinical research in the field of neurology. Stroke is a natural candidate for adoption of these innovative approaches to trial design. This Research Methods in Neurology article is informed by a scoping review that identified 45 completed or ongoing adaptive clinical trials in stroke that were appraised: 15 trials had published results with or without a published protocol and 30 ongoing trials (14 trials had a published protocol, and 16 trials were registered only). Interventions spanned acute (n = 28), rehabilitation (n = 8), prevention (n = 8), and rehabilitation and prevention (n = 1). A subsample of these trials was selected to illustrate the utility of adaptive design features and discuss why each adaptive feature was incorporated in the design to best achieve the aim; whether each individual feature was used and whether it resulted in expected efficiencies; and any learnings during preparation, conduct, or reporting. We then discuss the operational, ethical, and regulatory considerations that warrant careful consideration during adaptive trial planning and reflect on the workforce readiness to deliver adaptive trials in practice. We conclude that adaptive trials can be designed, funded, conducted, and published for a wide range of research questions and offer future directions to support adoption of adaptive trial designs in stroke and neurologic research more broadly.

Two-stage group-sequential designs with delayed responses - what is the point of applying corresponding methods?

BACKGROUND

In group-sequential designs, it is typically assumed that there is no time gap between patient enrollment and outcome measurement in clinical trials. However, in practice, there is usually a lag between the two time points. This can affect the statistical analysis of the data, especially in trials with interim analyses. One approach to address delayed responses has been introduced by Hampson and Jennison (J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 75:3-54, 2013), who proposed the use of error-spending stopping boundaries for patient enrollment, followed by critical values to reject the null hypothesis if the stopping boundaries are crossed beforehand. Regarding the choice of a trial design, it is important to consider the efficiency of trial designs, e.g. in terms of the probability of trial success (power) and required resources (sample size and time).

METHODS

This article aims to shed more light on the performance comparison of group sequential clinical trial designs that account for delayed responses and designs that do not. Suitable performance measures are described and designs are evaluated using the R package rpact. By doing so, we provide insight into global performance measures, discuss the applicability of conditional performance characteristics, and finally whether performance gain justifies the use of complex trial designs that incorporate delayed responses.

RESULTS

We investigated how the delayed response group sequential test (DR-GSD) design proposed by Hampson and Jennison (J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 75:3-54, 2013) can be extended to include nonbinding lower recruitment stopping boundaries, illustrating that their original design framework can accommodate both binding and nonbinding rules when additional constraints are imposed. Our findings indicate that the performance enhancements from methods incorporating delayed responses heavily rely on the sample size at interim and the volume of data in the pipeline, with overall performance gains being limited.

CONCLUSION

This research extends existing literature on group-sequential designs by offering insights into differences in performance. We conclude that, given the overall marginal differences, discussions regarding appropriate trial designs can pivot towards practical considerations of operational feasibility.

Incorporating external real-world data (RWD) in confirmatory adaptive design

Adaptive designs, such as group sequential designs (and the ones with additional adaptive features) or adaptive platform trials, have been quintessential efficient design strategies in trials of unmet medical needs, especially for generating evidence from global regions. Such designs allow interim decision making and making adjustment to study design when necessary, meanwhile maintaining study integrity and operating characteristics. However, driven by the heightened competitive landscape and the desire to bring effective treatment to patients faster, innovation in the already functional designs is still germane to further propel drug development to a more efficient path. One way to achieve this is by leveraging external real-world data (RWD) in the adaptive designs to support interim or final decision making. In this paper, we propose a novel framework of incorporating external RWD in adaptive design to improve interim and/or final analysis decision making. Within this framework, researchers can prespecify the decision process and choose the timing and amount of borrowing while maintaining objectivity and controlling of type I error. Simulation studies in various scenarios are provided to describe power, type I error, and other performance metrics for interim/final decision making. A case study in non-small cell lung cancer is used for illustration on proposed design framework.

Flexible seamless 2-in-1 design with sample size adaptation

The 2-in-1 design is becoming popular in oncology drug development, with the flexibility in using different endpoints at different decision time. Based on the observed interim data, sponsors can choose to seamlessly advance a small phase 2 trial to a full-scale confirmatory phase 3 trial with a pre-determined maximum sample size or remain in a phase 2 trial. While this approach may increase efficiency in drug development, it is rigid and requires a pre-specified fixed sample size. In this paper, we propose a flexible 2-in-1 design with sample size adaptation, while retaining the advantage of allowing an intermediate endpoint for interim decision-making. The proposed design reflects the needs of the recent FDA's Project FrontRunner initiative, which encourages the use of an earlier surrogate endpoint to potentially support accelerated approval with conversion to standard approval with long-term endpoints from the same randomized study. Additionally, we identify the interim decision cut-off to allow a conventional test procedure at the final analysis. Extensive simulation studies showed that the proposed design requires much a smaller sample size and shorter timeline than the simple 2-in-1 design, while achieving similar power. We present a case study in multiple myeloma to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed design.

Sample size recalculation in three-stage clinical trials and its evaluation

BACKGROUND

In clinical trials, the determination of an adequate sample size is a challenging task, mainly due to the uncertainty about the value of the effect size and nuisance parameters. One method to deal with this uncertainty is a sample size recalculation. Thereby, an interim analysis is performed based on which the sample size for the remaining trial is adapted. With few exceptions, previous literature has only examined the potential of recalculation in two-stage trials.

METHODS

In our research, we address sample size recalculation in three-stage trials, i.e. trials with two pre-planned interim analyses. We show how recalculation rules from two-stage trials can be modified to be applicable to three-stage trials. We also illustrate how a performance measure, recently suggested for two-stage trial recalculation (the conditional performance score) can be applied to evaluate recalculation rules in three-stage trials, and we describe performance evaluation in those trials from the global point of view. To assess the potential of recalculation in three-stage trials, we compare, in a simulation study, two-stage group sequential designs with three-stage group sequential designs as well as multiple three-stage designs with recalculation.

RESULTS

While we observe a notable favorable effect in terms of power and expected sample size by using three-stage designs compared to two-stage designs, the benefits of recalculation rules appear less clear and are dependent on the performance measures applied.

CONCLUSIONS

Sample size recalculation is also applicable in three-stage designs. However, the extent to which recalculation brings benefits depends on which trial characteristics are most important to the applicants.

Adaptive designs in dermatology clinical trials: Current status and future perspectives

Current drug development strategies present many challenges that can impede drug approval by regulatory agencies. Alternative study models, such as adaptive trial designs, have recently sparked interest, as they provide a flexible and more efficient approach in conducting clinical trials. Adaptive trial designs offer several potential benefits over traditional randomized controlled trials, which include decrease in costs, reduced clinical development time and limiting exposure of patients to potentially ineffective treatments allowing completion of studies with fewer patients. This article explores the current use of adaptive trial designs in non-oncologic skin diseases and highlights the most common types of adaptive designs used in the field. We also review the operational challenges and statistical considerations associated with such designs and propose clinical development strategies to successfully implement adaptive designs. The article also proposes instances where adaptive trial designs are particularly beneficial, and other situations where they may not be very useful.

Cross-validated risk scores adaptive enrichment (CADEN) design

We propose a Cross-validated ADaptive ENrichment design (CADEN) in which a trial population is enriched with a subpopulation of patients who are predicted to benefit from the treatment more than an average patient (the sensitive group). This subpopulation is found using a risk score constructed from the baseline (potentially high-dimensional) information about patients. The design incorporates an early stopping rule for futility. Simulation studies are used to assess the properties of CADEN against the original (non-enrichment) cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design which constructs a risk score at the end of the trial. We show that when there exists a sensitive group of patients, CADEN achieves a higher power and a reduction in the expected sample size compared to the CVRS design. We illustrate the application of the design in two real clinical trials. We conclude that the new design offers improved statistical efficiency over the existing non-enrichment method, as well as increased benefit to patients. The method has been implemented in an R package caden.

Two-stage randomized clinical trials with a right-censored endpoint: Comparison of frequentist and Bayesian adaptive designs

Adaptive randomized clinical trials are of major interest when dealing with a time-to-event outcome in a prolonged observation window. No consensus exists either to define stopping boundaries or to combinep $$ p $$ values or test statistics in the terminal analysis in the case of a frequentist design and sample size adaptation. In a one-sided setting, we compared three frequentist approaches using stopping boundaries relying onα $$ \alpha $$ -spending functions and a Bayesian monitoring setting with boundaries based on the posterior distribution of the log-hazard ratio. All designs comprised a single interim analysis with an efficacy stopping rule and the possibility of sample size adaptation at this interim step. Three frequentist approaches were defined based on the terminal analysis: combination of stagewise statistics (Wassmer) or ofp $$ p $$ values (Desseaux), or on patientwise splitting (Jörgens), and we compared the results with those of the Bayesian monitoring approach (Freedman). These different approaches were evaluated in a simulation study and then illustrated on a real dataset from a randomized clinical trial conducted in elderly patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. All approaches controlled for the type I error rate, except for the Bayesian monitoring approach, and yielded satisfactory power. It appears that the frequentist approaches are the best in underpowered trials. The power of all the approaches was affected by the violation of the proportional hazards (PH) assumption. For adaptive designs with a survival endpoint and a one-sided alternative hypothesis, the Wassmer and Jörgens approaches after sample size adaptation should be preferred, unless violation of PH is suspected.

A seamless phase II/III design with dose optimization for oncology drug development

The US FDA's Project Optimus initiative that emphasizes dose optimization prior to marketing approval represents a pivotal shift in oncology drug development. It has a ripple effect for rethinking what changes may be made to conventional pivotal trial designs to incorporate a dose optimization component. Aligned with this initiative, we propose a novel seamless phase II/III design with dose optimization (SDDO framework). The proposed design starts with dose optimization in a randomized setting, leading to an interim analysis focused on optimal dose selection, trial continuation decisions, and sample size re-estimation (SSR). Based on the decision at interim analysis, patient enrollment continues for both the selected dose arm and control arm, and the significance of treatment effects will be determined at final analysis. The SDDO framework offers increased flexibility and cost-efficiency through sample size adjustment, while stringently controlling the Type I error. This proposed design also facilitates both accelerated approval (AA) and regular approval in a "one-trial" approach. Extensive simulation studies confirm that our design reliably identifies the optimal dosage and makes preferable decisions with a reduced sample size while retaining statistical power.

A systematic approach to adaptive sequential design for clinical trials: using simulations to select a design with desired operating characteristics

The failure rates of phase 3 trials are high. Incorrect sample size due to uncertainty of effect size could be a critical contributing factor. Adaptive sequential design (ASD), which may include one or more sample size re-estimations (SSR), has been a popular approach for dealing with such uncertainties. The operating characteristics (OCs) of ASD, including the unconditional power and mean sample size, can be substantially affected by many factors, including the planned sample size, the interim analysis schedule and choice of critical boundaries and rules for interim analysis. We propose a systematic, comprehensive strategy which uses iterative simulations to investigate the operating characteristics of adaptive designs and help achieve adequate unconditional power and cost-effective mean sample size if the effect size is in a pre-identified range.

Comparison of downsizing strategy (HANGZHOU Solution) and standard annulus sizing strategy in type 0 bicuspid aortic stenosis patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement: Rationale and design of a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

There has not been a consensus on the prothesis sizing strategy in type 0 bicuspid aortic stenosis (AS) patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Modifications to standard annular sizing strategies might be required due to the distinct anatomical characteristics. We have devised a downsizing strategy for TAVR using a self-expanding valve specifically for patients with type 0 bicuspid AS. The primary aim of this study is to compare the safety and efficacy of downsizing strategy with the Standard Annulus Sizing Strategy in TAVR for patients with type 0 bicuspid AS.

TRIAL DESIGN

It is a prospective, multi-center, superiority, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial comparing the Down Sizing and Standard Annulus Sizing Strategy in patients with type 0 bicuspid aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Eligible participants will include patients with severe type 0 bicuspid AS, as defined by criteria such as mean gradient across aortic valve ≥40 mmHg, peak aortic jet velocity ≥4.0 m/s, aortic valve area (AVA) ≤1.0 cm², or AVA index ≤0.6 cm2/m2. These patients will be randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, to either the Down Sizing Strategy group or the Standard Sizing Strategy group. In the Down Sizing Strategy group, a valve one size smaller will be implanted if the "waist sign" manifests along with less than mild regurgitation during balloon pre-dilatation. The primary end point of the study is a composite of VARC-3 defined device success, absence of both permanent pacemaker implantation due to high-degree atrioventricular block and new-onset complete left bundle branch block.

CONCLUSION

This study will compare the safety and efficacy of Down Sizing Strategy with the Standard Annulus Sizing Strategy and provide valuable insights into the optimal approach for sizing in TAVR patients with type 0 bicuspid AS. We hypothesize that the Down Sizing Strategy will demonstrate superiority when compared to the Standard Annulus Sizing Strategy. (Down Sizing Strategy (HANGZHOU Solution) vs Standard Sizing Strategy TAVR in Bicuspid Aortic Stenosis (Type 0) (TAILOR-TAVR), NCT05511792).

Vedolizumab for the prevention of intestinal acute GVHD after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a randomized phase 3 trial

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) of the lower gastrointestinal (GI) tract is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients receiving allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Vedolizumab is a gut-selective anti-α4β7 integrin monoclonal antibody that reduces gut inflammation by inhibiting migration of GI-homing T lymphocytes. The efficacy and safety of vedolizumab added to standard GVHD prophylaxis (calcineurin inhibitor plus methotrexate/mycophenolate mofetil) was evaluated for prevention of lower-GI aGVHD after unrelated donor allo-HSCT in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial. Enrollment closed early during the COVID-19 pandemic with 343 patients randomized (n = 174 vedolizumab, n = 169 placebo), and 333 received ≥1 intravenous dose of 300 mg vedolizumab (n = 168) or placebo (n = 165) and underwent allo-HSCT. The primary end point was met; Kaplan-Meier (95% confidence interval) estimated rates of lower-GI aGVHD-free survival by day +180 after allo-HSCT were 85.5% (79.2-90.1) with vedolizumab versus 70.9% (63.2-77.2) with placebo (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.73; P < 0.001). For the 5 key secondary efficacy end points analyzed by day +180 after allo-HSCT, rates of lower-GI aGVHD-free and relapse-free survival and grade C-D aGVHD-free survival were significantly higher with vedolizumab versus placebo. No significant treatment differences were found for the other key secondary end points of non-relapse mortality, overall survival and grade B-D aGVHD-free survival, respectively. Incidence of treatment-related serious adverse events analyzed in patients receiving ≥1 dose of study treatment (n = 334) was 6.5% (n = 11 of 169) vedolizumab versus 8.5% (n = 14 of 165) placebo. When added to standard calcineurin inhibitor-based GVHD prevention, lower-GI aGVHD-free survival was significantly higher with vedolizumab versus placebo. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03657160 .

Tenecteplase versus alteplase for thrombolysis in patients selected by use of perfusion imaging within 4·5 h of onset of ischaemic stroke (TASTE): a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Intravenous tenecteplase increases reperfusion in patients with salvageable brain tissue on perfusion imaging and might have advantages over alteplase as a thrombolytic for ischaemic stroke. We aimed to assess the non-inferiority of tenecteplase versus alteplase on clinical outcomes in patients selected by use of perfusion imaging.

METHODS

This international, multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised, clinical non-inferiority trial enrolled patients from 35 hospitals in eight countries. Participants were aged 18 years or older, within 4·5 h of ischaemic stroke onset or last known well, were not being considered for endovascular thrombectomy, and met target mismatch criteria on brain perfusion imaging. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by use of a centralised web server with randomly permuted blocks to intravenous tenecteplase (0·25 mg/kg) or alteplase (0·90 mg/kg). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients without disability (modified Rankin Scale 0-1) at 3 months, assessed via masked review in both the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. We aimed to recruit 832 participants to yield 90% power (one-sided alpha=0·025) to detect a risk difference of 0·08, with an absolute non-inferiority margin of -0·03. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12613000243718, and the European Union Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT Number 2015-002657-36, and it is completed.

FINDINGS

Recruitment ceased early following the announcement of other trial results showing non-inferiority of tenecteplase versus alteplase. Between March 21, 2014, and Oct 20, 2023, 680 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to tenecteplase (n=339) and alteplase (n=341), all of whom were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (multiple imputation was used to account for missing primary outcome data for five patients). Protocol violations occurred in 74 participants, thus the per-protocol population comprised 601 people (295 in the tenecteplase group and 306 in the alteplase group). Participants had a median age of 74 years (IQR 63-82), baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 7 (4-11), and 260 (38%) were female. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the primary outcome occurred in 191 (57%) of 335 participants allocated to tenecteplase and 188 (55%) of 340 participants allocated to alteplase (standardised risk difference [SRD]=0·03 [95% CI -0·033 to 0·10], one-tailed pnon-inferiority=0·031). In the per-protocol analysis, the primary outcome occurred in 173 (59%) of 295 participants allocated to tenecteplase and 171 (56%) of 306 participants allocated to alteplase (SRD 0·05 [-0·02 to 0·12], one-tailed pnon-inferiority=0·01). Nine (3%) of 337 patients in the tenecteplase group and six (2%) of 340 in the alteplase group had symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (unadjusted risk difference=0·01 [95% CI -0·01 to 0·03]) and 23 (7%) of 335 and 15 (4%) of 340 died within 90 days of starting treatment (SRD 0·02 [95% CI -0·02 to 0·05]).

INTERPRETATION

The findings in our study provide further evidence to strengthen the assertion of the non-inferiority of tenecteplase to alteplase, specifically when perfusion imaging has been used to identify reperfusion-eligible stroke patients. Although non-inferiority was achieved in the per-protocol population, it was not reached in the intention-to-treat analysis, possibly due to sample size limtations. Nonetheless, large-scale implementation of perfusion CT to assist in patient selection for intravenous thrombolysis in the early time window was shown to be feasible.

FUNDING

Australian National Health Medical Research Council; Boehringer Ingelheim.

Clinical Safety and Performance of GATT-Patch for Hemostasis in Minimal to Moderate Bleeding During Open Liver Surgery

INTRODUCTION

Intraoperative blood loss and postoperative hemorrhage affect outcomes after liver resection. GATT-Patch is a new flexible, pliable hemostatic sealant patch comprising fibrous gelatin carrier impregnated with N-hydroxy-succinimide polyoxazoline. We evaluated safety and performance of the GATT-Patch for hemostasis at the liver resection plane.

METHODS

Adult patients undergoing elective open liver surgery were recruited in three centers. GATT-Patch was used for minimal to moderate bleeding at the liver resection plane. The primary endpoint was hemostasis of the first-treated bleeding site at 3 min versus a prespecified performance goal of 65.4%.

RESULTS

Two trial stages were performed: I (n = 8) for initial safety and II (n = 39) as the primary outcome cohort. GATT-Patch was applied in 47 patients on 63 bleeding sites. Median age was 60.0 (range 25-80) years and 70% were male. Most (66%) surgeries were for colorectal cancer metastases. The primary endpoint was met in 38 out of 39 patients (97.4%; 95% confidence interval: 84.6%-99.9%) versus 65.4% (P < 0.001). Of all the 63 bleeding sites, hemostasis was 82.7% at 30, 93.7% at 60, and 96.8% at 180 s. No reoperations for rebleeding or device-related issues occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

When compared to a performance goal derived from state-of-the-art hemostatic agents, GATT-Patch for the treatment of minimal to moderate bleeding during liver surgery successfully and quickly achieved hemostasis with acceptable safety outcomes. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04819945).

Tranexamic acid versus placebo in individuals with intracerebral haemorrhage treated within 2 h of symptom onset (STOP-MSU): an international, double-blind, randomised, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Tranexamic acid, an antifibrinolytic agent, might attenuate haematoma growth after an intracerebral haemorrhage. We aimed to determine whether treatment with intravenous tranexamic acid within 2 h of an intracerebral haemorrhage would reduce haematoma growth compared with placebo.

METHODS

STOP-MSU was an investigator-led, double-blind, randomised, phase 2 trial conducted at 24 hospitals and one mobile stroke unit in Australia, Finland, New Zealand, Taiwan, and Viet Nam. Eligible participants had acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage confirmed on non-contrast CT, were aged 18 years or older, and could be treated with the investigational product within 2 h of stroke onset. Using randomly permuted blocks (block size of 4) and a concealed pre-randomised assignment procedure, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenous tranexamic acid (1 g over 10 min followed by 1 g over 8 h) or placebo (saline; matched dosing regimen) commencing within 2 h of symptom onset. Participants, investigators, and treating teams were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome was haematoma growth, defined as either at least 33% relative growth or at least 6 mL absolute growth on CT at 24 h (target range 18-30 h) from the baseline CT. The analysis was conducted within the estimand framework with primary analyses adhering to the intention-to-treat principle. The primary endpoint and secondary safety endpoints (mortality at days 7 and 90 and major thromboembolic events at day 90) were assessed in all participants randomly assigned to treatment groups who did not withdraw consent to use any data. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03385928, and the trial is now complete.

FINDINGS

Between March 19, 2018, and Feb 27, 2023, 202 participants were recruited, of whom one withdrew consent for any data use. The remaining 201 participants were randomly assigned to either placebo (n=98) or tranexamic acid (n=103; intention-to-treat population). Median age was 66 years (IQR 55-77), and 82 (41%) were female and 119 (59%) were male; no data on race or ethnicity were collected. CT scans at baseline or follow-up were missing or of inadequate quality in three participants (one in the placebo group and two in the tranexamic acid group), and were considered missing at random. Haematoma growth occurred in 37 (38%) of 97 assessable participants in the placebo group and 43 (43%) of 101 assessable participants in the tranexamic acid group (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·31 [95% CI 0·72 to 2·40], p=0·37). Major thromboembolic events occurred in one (1%) of 98 participants in the placebo group and three (3%) of 103 in the tranexamic acid group (risk difference 0·02 [95% CI -0·02 to 0·06]). By 7 days, eight (8%) participants in the placebo group and eight (8%) in the tranexamic acid group had died (aOR 1·08 [95% CI 0·35 to 3·35]) and by 90 days, 15 (15%) participants in the placebo group and 19 (18%) in the tranexamic acid group had died (aOR 1·61 [95% CI 0·65 to 3·98]).

INTERPRETATION

Intravenous tranexamic acid did not reduce haematoma growth when administered within 2 h of intracerebral haemorrhage symptom onset. There were no observed effects on other imaging endpoints, functional outcome, or safety. Based on our results, tranexamic acid should not be used routinely in primary intracerebral haemorrhage, although results of ongoing phase 3 trials will add further context to these findings.

FUNDING

Australian Government Medical Research Future Fund.

A two-stage group-sequential design for delayed treatment responses with the possibility of trial restart

Common statistical theory applicable to confirmatory phase III trial designs usually assumes that patients are enrolled simultaneously and there is no time gap between enrollment and outcome observation. However, in practice, patients are enrolled successively and there is a lag between the enrollment of a patient and the measurement of the primary outcome. For single-stage designs, the difference between theory and practice only impacts on the trial duration but not on the statistical analysis and its interpretation. For designs with interim analyses, however, the number of patients already enrolled into the trial and the number of patients with available outcome measurements differ, which can cause issues regarding the statistical analyses of the data. The main issue is that current methodologies either imply that at the time of the interim analysis there are so-called pipeline patients whose data are not used to make a statistical decision (like stopping early for efficacy) or the enrollment into the trial needs to be at least paused for interim analysis to avoid pipeline patients. There are methods for delayed responses available that introduced error-spending stopping boundaries for the enrollment of patients followed by critical values to reject the null hypothesis in case the stopping boundaries have been crossed beforehand. Here, we will discuss other solutions, considering different boundary determination algorithms using conditional power and introducing a design allowing for recruitment restart while keeping the type I error rate controlled.

Sample size adaptation designs and efficiency comparison with group sequential designs

This study is to give a systematic account of sample size adaptation designs (SSADs) and to provide direct proof of the efficiency advantage of general SSADs over group sequential designs (GSDs) from a different perspective. For this purpose, a class of sample size mapping functions to define SSADs is introduced. Under the two-stage adaptive clinical trial setting, theorems are developed to describe the properties of SSADs. Sufficient conditions are derived and used to prove analytically that SSADs based on the weighted combination test can be uniformly more efficient than GSDs in a range of likely values of the true treatment differenceδ $$ \delta $$ . As shown in various scenarios, given a GSD, a fully adaptive SSAD can be obtained that has sufficient statistical power similar to that of the GSD but has a smaller average sample size for allδ $$ \delta $$ in the range. The associated sample size savings can be substantial. A practical design example and suggestions on the steps to find efficient SSADs are also provided.

Epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian predictive probabilities

Bayesian predictive probabilities have become a ubiquitous tool for design and monitoring of clinical trials. The typical procedure is to average predictive probabilities over the prior or posterior distributions. In this paper, we highlight the limitations of relying solely on averaging, and propose the reporting of intervals or quantiles for the predictive probabilities. These intervals formalize the intuition that uncertainty decreases with more information. We present four different applications (Phase 1 dose escalation, early stopping for futility, sample size re-estimation, and assurance/probability of success) to demonstrate the practicality and generality of the proposed approach.

An adaptive seamless 2-in-1 design with biomarker-driven subgroup enrichment

Adaptive seamless phase 2/3 subgroup enrichment design plays a pivotal role in streamlining efficient drug development within a competitive landscape, while also enhancing patient access to promising treatments. This design approach identifies biomarker subgroups with the highest potential to benefit from investigational regimens. The seamless integration of Phase 2 and Phase 3 ensures a timely confirmation of clinical benefits. One significant challenge in adaptive enrichment decisions is determining the optimal timing and maturity of the primary endpoint. In this paper, we propose an adaptive seamless 2-in-1 biomarker-driven subgroup enrichment design that addresses this challenge by allowing subgroup selection using an early intermediate endpoint that predicts clinical benefits (i.e. a surrogate endpoint). The proposed design initiates with a Phase 2 stage involving all participants and can potentially expand into a Phase 3 study focused on the subgroup demonstrating the most favorable clinical outcomes. We will show that, under certain correlation assumptions, the overall type I error may not be inflated at the end of the study. In scenarios where the assumptions may not hold, we present a general framework to control the multiplicity. The flexibility and efficacy of the proposed design are highlighted through an extensive simulation study and illustrated in a case study in multiple myeloma.

New results on optimal conditional error functions for adaptive two-stage designs

Unblinded interim analyses in clinical trials with adaptive designs are gaining increasing popularity. Here, the type I error rate is controlled by defining an appropriate conditional error function. Since various approaches to the selection of the conditional error function exist, the question of an optimal choice arises. In this article, we extend existing work on optimal conditional error functions by two results. Firstly, we prove that techniques from variational calculus can be applied to derive existing optimal conditional error functions. Secondly, we answer the question of optimizing the conditional error function of an optimal promising zone design and investigate the efficiency gain.

Adaptive promising zone design for cancer immunotherapy with heterogeneous delayed treatment effect

Indirect mechanisms of cancer immunotherapies result in delayed treatment effects that vary among patients. Consequently, the use of the log-rank test in trial design and analysis can lead to significant power loss and pose additional challenges for interim decisions in adaptive designs. In this paper, we describe patients' survival using a piecewise proportional hazard model with random lag time and propose an adaptive promising zone design for cancer immunotherapy with heterogeneous delayed effects. We provide solutions for calculating conditional power and adjusting the critical value for the log-rank test with interim data. We divide the sample space into three zones - unfavourable, promising, and favourable -based on re-estimations of the survival parameters, the log-rank test statistic at the interim analysis, and the initial and maximum sample sizes. If the interim results fall into the promising zone, the sample size is increased; otherwise, it remains unchanged. We show through simulations that our proposed approach has greater overall power than the fixed sample design and similar power to the matched group sequential trial. Furthermore, we confirm that critical value adjustment effectively controls the type I error rate inflation. Finally, we provide recommendations on the implementation of our proposed method in cancer immunotherapy trials.

Design and monitoring of clinical trials with an interim analysis and a negative binomial endpoint

There are very rich publications devoted to group sequential design, adaptive design and trial monitoring for continuous, binary and time to event endpoints. Many authors also discuss fixed design, blinded sample size re-estimation design and group sequential design for studies with a negative binomial outcome. Nonetheless, literature is sparse in adaptive design for a trial with a negative binomial endpoint. The features of such an endpoint in a flexible trial design setting remains inadequately understood. In this research, we seek to bridge this knowledge gap by offering a thorough examination of utilizing data components from a two-stage adaptive design for unblinded conditional power calculation and corresponding sample size re-estimation. We also provide expression for calculating the probability of meeting the futility criterion to determine the appropriate timing for the interim analysis. To evaluate the performance of the design, we conduct simulations to assess its operation characteristics. Finally, we provide a helpful and illustrative example to demonstrate the practical applications of the methods.

Intra-arterial tenecteplase during thrombectomy for acute stroke (BRETIS-TNK II): rationale and design

BACKGROUND

Our recent pilot study suggests intra-arterial tenecteplase (TNK) during the first pass of endovascular treatment (EVT) seems safe, may increase first-pass reperfusion and good outcome in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients with large-vessel occlusion (LVO).

AIMS

To determine the efficacy and safety of intra-arterial TNK administration during EVT in AIS-LVO patients presenting up to 24 hours from symptom onset.

SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATES

A maximum of 380 patients are required to test the superiority hypothesis with 80% power according to a two-side 0.05 level of significance, stratified by age, gender, baseline systolic blood pressure, prestroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS), baseline National Institute of Health stroke scale, baseline ASPECTS, time from onset to groin puncture, intravenous thrombolysis before EVT, stroke territory and stroke aetiology.

DESIGN

Intra-arterial TNK during thrombectomy for acute stroke (BRETIS-TNK II) study is a prospective, randomised, adaptive enrichment, open-label, blinded end point, multicentre study. Eligible AIS-LVO patients are randomly assigned into the experimental group and control group with a ratio of 1:1. The experimental group will be treated with intra-arterial infusion of TNK during EVT. The control group will be treated with standard EVT.

OUTCOME

The primary end point is a favourable outcome, defined as an mRS score of 0-2 at 90 days. The primary safety end point is symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage within 48 hours, which is defined as an increase in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥4 points as a result of the intracranial haemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of BRETIS-TNK II will provide evidence for the efficacy and safety of intra-arterial TNK administration during EVT in AIS patients with LVO.

Protocol for fever control using external cooling in mechanically ventilated patients with septic shock: SEPSISCOOL II randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Fever treatment is commonly applied in patients with sepsis but its impact on survival remains undetermined. Patients with respiratory and haemodynamic failure are at the highest risk for not tolerating the metabolic cost of fever. However, fever can help to control infection. Treating fever with paracetamol has been shown to be less effective than cooling. In the SEPSISCOOL pilot study, active fever control by external cooling improved organ failure recovery and early survival. The main objective of this confirmatory trial is to assess whether fever control at normothermia can improve the evolution of organ failure and mortality at day 60 of febrile patients with septic shock. This study will compare two strategies within the first 48 hours of septic shock: treatment of fever with cooling or no treatment of fever.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

SEPSISCOOL II is a pragmatic, investigator-initiated, adaptive, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled, superiority trial in patients admitted to the intensive care unit with febrile septic shock. After stratification based on the acute respiratory distress syndrome status, patients will be randomised between two arms: (1) cooling and (2) no cooling. The primary endpoint is mortality at day 60 after randomisation. The secondary endpoints include the evolution of organ failure, early mortality and tolerance. The target sample size is 820 patients.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is funded by the French health ministry and was approved by the ethics committee CPP Nord Ouest II (Amiens, France). The results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04494074.

Extension of a conditional performance score for sample size recalculation rules to the setting of binary endpoints

BACKGROUND

Sample size calculation is a central aspect in planning of clinical trials. The sample size is calculated based on parameter assumptions, like the treatment effect and the endpoint's variance. A fundamental problem of this approach is that the true distribution parameters are not known before the trial. Hence, sample size calculation always contains a certain degree of uncertainty, leading to the risk of underpowering or oversizing a trial. One way to cope with this uncertainty are adaptive designs. Adaptive designs allow to adjust the sample size during an interim analysis. There is a large number of such recalculation rules to choose from. To guide the choice of a suitable adaptive design with sample size recalculation, previous literature suggests a conditional performance score for studies with a normally distributed endpoint. However, binary endpoints are also frequently applied in clinical trials and the application of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints is not yet investigated.

METHODS

We extend the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints by suggesting a related one-dimensional score parametrization. We moreover perform a simulation study to evaluate the operational characteristics and to illustrate application.

RESULTS

We find that the score definition can be extended without modification to the case of binary endpoints. We represent the score results by a single distribution parameter, and therefore derive a single effect measure, which contains the difference in proportions [Formula: see text] between the intervention and the control group, as well as the endpoint proportion [Formula: see text] in the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

This research extends the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints and demonstrates its application in practice.

Power Considerations in Designing and Interpreting Adaptive Clinical Trials

Adaptive clinical trials allow researchers to make preplanned modifications based on accumulating data from an ongoing trial while preserving the trial's integrity and validity. These modifications may include early termination in cases of successes or lack of efficacy, refining the sample size, altering treatments or doses, or focusing recruitment efforts on individuals most likely to benefit. In this issue of NEJM Evidence, Geisler et al.1 report results from the Apixaban for Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ATTICUS) trial, a multicenter randomized trial of apixaban compared with aspirin in patients with cardioembolism risk factors.

Protocol and statistical analysis plan for a randomized controlled trial of the effect of intravenous iron on anemia in Malawian pregnant women in their third trimester (REVAMP - TT)

Background

Anemia affects 40% of pregnant women globally, leading to maternal mortality, premature birth, low birth weight, and poor baby development. Iron deficiency causes over 40% of anemia cases in Africa. Oral iron supplementation is insufficient for Low-and-Middle-Income-Countries (LMICs) to meet current WHO targets. We hypothesized that a single intravenous dose of Ferric Carboxymaltose (FCM) may be more effective than oral iron treatment for anemia recovery, particularly in these settings where women present late for antenatal care.

Methods

This is a two-arm parallel open-label individual-randomized controlled trial in third trimester, in malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test-negative pregnant women with moderate or severe anemia - capillary hemoglobin <10 g/dL - who are randomized to receive either parenteral iron - with FCM - or standard-of-care oral iron for the remainder of pregnancy. This is the sister trial to the second-trimester REVAMP trial, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (trial registration ACTRN12618001268235, Gates Grant number INV-010612). In REVAMP-TT, recruitment and treatment are performed within primary health centers. The trial will recruit 590 women across Zomba district, Malawi. The primary outcome is the proportion of anemic women - venous hemoglobin <11 g/dL - at 36 weeks' gestation or delivery (whichever occurs first). Other pre-specified key secondary clinical and safety outcomes include maternal iron-status and hypophosphatemia, neonate birth weight, infant growth and infant iron and hematological parameters.

Discussion

This study will determine whether FCM, delivered within primary health centers, is effective, safe and feasible for treating moderate to severe anemia in third-trimester pregnant Malawian women. This intervention could have long-term benefits for maternal and child health, resulting in improved survival and child development.

Application of sample size re-estimation in clinical trials: A systematic review

Background

Sample size re-estimation (SSR) is a method used to recalculate sample size during clinical trial conduct to address a lack of adequate information and can have a significant impact on study size, duration, resources, and cost. Few studies to date have summarized the conditions and circumstances under which SSR is applied. We therefore performed a systematic review of the literature related to SSR to better understand its application in clinical trial settings.

Methods

PubMed was used as the primary search source, supplemented with information from ClinicalTrials.gov where necessary details were lacking from PubMed. A systematic review was performed according to a pre-specified search strategy to identify clinical trials using SSR. Features of SSR, such as study phase and study start year, were summarized.

Results

In total, 253 publications met the pre-specified search criteria and 27 clinical trials were subsequently determined as relevant in SSR usage. Among trials where the study phase was provided, 2 (7.4%) trials were Phase I, 5 (18.5%) trials were Phase II, 11 (40.7%) trials were Phase III, and 2 (7.4%) trials were Phase IV.

Conclusion

Our results showed that SSR is also used in Phase I and II, which involve earlier decision making. We expect that SSR will continue to be used in early-phase trials where sufficient prior information may not be available. Furthermore, no major trends were observed in relation to therapy area or type of SSR, meaning that SSR may become a feasible and widely applied method in the future.

Management of Poststroke Hyperglycemia: Results of the TEXAIS Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Hyperglycemia in acute ischemic stroke reduces the efficacy of stroke thrombolysis and thrombectomy, with worse clinical outcomes. Insulin-based therapies are difficult to implement and may cause hypoglycemia. We investigated whether exenatide, a GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonist, would improve stroke outcomes, and control poststroke hyperglycemia with minimal hypoglycemia.

METHODS

The TEXAIS trial (Treatment With Exenatide in Acute Ischemic Stroke) was an international, multicenter, phase 2 prospective randomized clinical trial (PROBE [Prospective Randomized Open Blinded End-Point] design) enrolling adult patients with acute ischemic stroke ≤9 hours of stroke onset to receive exenatide (5 µg BID subcutaneous injection) or standard care for 5 days, or until hospital discharge (whichever sooner). The primary outcome (intention to treat) was the proportion of patients with ≥8-point improvement in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (or National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores 0-1) at 7 days poststroke. Safety outcomes included death, episodes of hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and adverse event.

RESULTS

From April 2016 to June 2021, 350 patients were randomized (exenatide, n=177, standard care, n=173). Median age, 71 years (interquartile range, 62-79), median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 4 (interquartile range, 2-8). Planned recruitment (n=528) was stopped early due to COVID-19 disruptions and funding constraints. The primary outcome was achieved in 97 of 171 (56.7%) in the standard care group versus 104 of 170 (61.2%) in the exenatide group (adjusted odds ratio, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.79-1.88]; P=0.38). No differences in secondary outcomes were observed. The per-patient mean daily frequency of hyperglycemia was significantly less in the exenatide group across all quartiles. No episodes of hypoglycemia were recorded over the treatment period. Adverse events of mild nausea and vomiting occurred in 6 (3.5%) exenatide patients versus 0 (0%) standard care with no withdrawal.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with exenatide did not reduce neurological impairment at 7 days in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Exenatide did significantly reduce the frequency of hyperglycemic events, without hypoglycemia, and was safe to use. Larger acute stroke trials using GLP-1 agonists such as exenatide should be considered.

REGISTRATION

URL: www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au; Unique identifier: ACTRN12617000409370. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03287076.

Cardiorespiratory monitoring with a wireless and nonadhesive belt measuring diaphragm activity in preterm and term infants: A multicenter non-inferiority study

INTRODUCTION

We determined if the heart rate (HR) monitoring performance of a wireless and nonadhesive belt is non-inferior compared to standard electrocardiography (ECG). Secondary objective was to explore the belt's respiratory rate (RR) monitoring performance compared to chest impedance (CI).

METHOD

In this multicenter non-inferiority trial, preterm and term infants were simultaneously monitored with the belt and conventional ECG/CI for 24 h. HR monitoring performance was estimated with the HR difference and ability to detect cardiac events compared to the ECG, and the incidence of HR-data loss per second. These estimations were statistically compared to prespecified margins to confirm equivalence/non-inferiority. Exploratory RR analyses estimated the RR trend difference and ability to detect apnea/tachypnea compared to CI, and the incidence of RR-data loss per second.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine infants were included. HR monitoring with the belt was non-inferior to the ECG with a mean HR difference of 0.03 beats per minute (bpm) (standard error [SE] = 0.02) (95% limits of agreement [LoA]: [-5 to 5] bpm) (p < 0.001). Second, sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for cardiac event detection were 94.0% (SE = 0.5%) and 92.6% (SE = 0.6%), respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Third, the incidence of HR-data loss was 2.1% (SE = 0.4%) per second (p < 0.05). The exploratory analyses of RR showed moderate trend agreement with a mean RR-difference of 3.7 breaths/min (SE = 0.8) (LoA: [-12 to 19] breaths/min), but low sensitivities and PPV's for apnea/tachypnea detection. The incidence of RR-data loss was 2.2% (SE = 0.4%) per second.

CONCLUSION

The nonadhesive, wireless belt showed non-inferior HR monitoring and a moderate agreement in RR trend compared to ECG/CI. Future research on apnea/tachypnea detection is required.

Estimation of conditional power in the presence of auxiliary data

Conditional power (CP) is a commonly used tool to inform interim decision-making in clinical trials, but the conventional approach using only primary endpoint data to calculate CP may not perform well when the primary endpoint requires a long follow-up period, or the treatment effect size changes during the trial. Several methods have been proposed to use additional short term auxiliary data observed at the interim analysis to improve the CP estimation in these situations, however, they may rely on strong assumptions, have limited applications, or use ad hoc choices of information fraction. In this paper we propose a general framework where the true CP formula is first derived in the presence of auxiliary data, and CP estimation is obtained by substituting the unknown parameters with consistent estimators. We conducted extensive simulations to examine the performance of both proposed and conventional approaches using the true CP as the benchmark. As the proposed approach is based on the true underlying CP, the simulations confirmed its superiority over the conventional approach in terms of efficiency and accuracy, especially if observed auxiliary data reflect the change of treatment effect size. The simulations also indicate that the magnitude of improvement in CP estimation is associated with the correlation between auxiliary and primary endpoints and/or the magnitude of the effect size change during the trial.

A phase III, multi-arm multi-stage covariate-adjusted response-adaptive randomized trial to determine optimal early mobility training after stroke (AVERT DOSE)

RATIONALE

The evidence base for acute post-stroke rehabilitation is inadequate and global guideline recommendations vary.

AIM

To define optimal early mobility intervention regimens for ischemic stroke patients of mild and moderate severity.

HYPOTHESES

Compared with a prespecified reference arm, the optimal dose regimen(s) will result in more participants experiencing little or no disability (mRS 0-2) at 3 months post-stroke (primary), fewer deaths at 3 months, fewer and less severe complications during the intervention period, faster recovery of unassisted walking, and better quality of life at 3 months (secondary). We also hypothesize that these regimens will be more cost-effective.

SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATES

For the primary outcome, recruitment of 1300 mild and 1400 moderate participants will yield 80% power to detect a 10% risk difference.

METHODS AND DESIGN

Multi-arm multi-stage covariate-adjusted response-adaptive randomized trial of mobility training commenced within 48 h of stroke in mild (NIHSS < 7) and moderate (NIHSS 8-16) stroke patient strata, with analysis of blinded outcomes at 3 (primary) and 6 months. Eligibility criteria are broad, while excluding those with severe premorbid disability (mRS > 2) and hemorrhagic stroke. With four arms per stratum (reference arm retained throughout), only the single treatment arm demonstrating the highest proportion of favorable outcomes at the first stage will proceed to the second stage in each stratum, resulting in a final comparison with the reference arm. Three prognostic covariates of age, geographic region and reperfusion interventions, as well as previously observed mRS 0-2 responses inform the adaptive randomization procedure. Participants randomized receive prespecified mobility training regimens (functional task-specific), provided by physiotherapists/nurses until discharge or 14 days. Interventions replace usual mobility training. Fifty hospitals in seven countries (Australia, Malaysia, United Kingdom, Ireland, India, Brazil, Singapore) are expected to participate.

SUMMARY

Our novel adaptive trial design will evaluate a wider variety of mobility regimes than a traditional two-arm design. The data-driven adaptions during the trial will enable a more efficient evaluation to determine the optimal early mobility intervention for patients with mild and moderate ischemic stroke.

Promising zone two-stage design for a single-arm study with binary outcome

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials to assess the effectiveness of new drugs. For a single-arm study with a binary outcome, several adaptive designs were developed by using numerical search algorithms and the conditional power approach. The design based on numerical search algorithms is able to identify the global optimal design, but the computational intensity limits the usage of these designs. The conditional power approach searches for the optimal design without expensive computing time. In addition, promising zone strategy was proposed to move on drug development to the follow-up stages when the interim results are promising. We propose to develop two adaptive designs: One based on the conditional power approach, and the other based on the promising zone strategy. These two designs preserve types I and II error rates. It is preferable to satisfy the monotonic property for adaptive designs: The second stage sample size decreases as the first stage responses go up. We theoretically prove this important property for the two proposed designs. The proposed designs can be easily applied to real trials with limited computing resources.

Early, very high-titre convalescent plasma therapy in clinically vulnerable individuals with mild COVID-19 (COVIC-19): protocol for a randomised, open-label trial

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is a possible treatment option for COVID-19. A comprehensive number of clinical trials on CCP efficacy have already been conducted. However, many aspects of CCP treatment still require investigations: in particular (1) Optimisation of the CCP product, (2) Identification of the patient population in need and most likely to benefit from this treatment approach, (3) Timing of administration and (4) CCP efficacy across viral variants in vivo. We aimed to test whether high-titre CCP, administered early, is efficacious in preventing hospitalisation or death in high-risk patients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

COVIC-19 is a multicentre, randomised, open-label, adaptive superiority phase III trial comparing CCP with very high neutralising antibody titre administered within 7 days of symptom onset plus standard of care versus standard of care alone. We will enrol patients in two cohorts of vulnerable patients [(1) elderly 70+ years, or younger with comorbidities; (2) immunocompromised patients]. Up to 1020 participants will be enrolled in each cohort (at least 340 with a sample size re-estimation after reaching 102 patients). The primary endpoint is the proportion of participants with (1) Hospitalisation due to progressive COVID-19, or (2) Who died by day 28 after randomisation. Principal analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been granted by the University of Ulm ethics committee (#41/22) (lead ethics committee for Germany), Comité de protection des personnes Sud-Est I (CPP Sud-Est I) (#2022-A01307-36) (ethics committee for France), and ErasmusMC ethics committee (#MEC-2022-0365) (ethics committee for the Netherlands). Signed informed consent will be obtained from all included patients. The findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant stakeholder conferences and meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials.gov (NCT05271929), EudraCT (2021-006621-22).