Temporal and spatial distributions of animal and human rabies cases during 2012 and 2018, in Tunisia

Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease, resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Nepal, animal rabies has posed a significant challenge to public health. Because animals are the primary source of rabies in humans, a better understanding of rabies epidemiology in animals is necessary. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlation between rabies occurrences in dogs and livestock animals and to detect the trends and change points of the disease using longitudinal data. The nationwide rabies dataset from 2005 to 2018 was analyzed using cross-correlation, multiple change points, and time series methods. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) were applied to the time series data. The results show a positive correlation between canine rabies and livestock rabies occurrences. Three significant change points were detected in the time series data, demonstrating that the occurrences were high in the initial years but stabilized before peaking to an upward trend in the final years of the study period. Nonetheless, there was no seasonality pattern in rabies occurrences. The most suitable models were ARIMA (2,1,2) and NNAR (5,1,4) (12). Based on the study findings, both locals and tourists in Nepal need to have enhanced awareness of the potential dangers posed by rabies in canines and livestock. This study offers much-needed insight into the patterns and epidemiology of animal rabies which will be helpful for policymakers in drafting rabies control plans for Nepal.

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

Owned and free-roaming dogs in the North West of Tunisia: estimation, characteristics and application for the control of dog rabies

Understanding the structure of dog population and the evaluation of the accessibility of dogs to vaccination is essential to succeed in the fight against dog rabies and to adapt the strategy of its control. We studied the characteristics of the unowned and owned dogs using the beck method during a rabies vaccination campaign in randomly selected sectors (urban and rural sites) in the North West of Tunisia. During a door-to-door investigation of households, data on owned dogs were collected to describe the owned population dog. A photographic-recapture method was used to characterize and estimate the size of the unowned dogs. A total of 1432 households accounting for 5403 inhabitants were interviewed during the survey (1298 (90.6%) in the urban site and 134 (9.3%) in the rural site). The dog-owning households were significantly higher in the rural site (76.1% (102/134)) compared to the urban site (17.8% (231/1298)) (P < 0.000000). Of the 17.8% dog-owning households in urban site, 58.4% owned one dog and 9% between 4 and 8 dogs. While, of the 76.1% dog-owning households in rural site, 24.5% owned one dog and 32.3% owned between 4 and 10 dogs. The dog: human ratio was 1:11 in the urban site and 1:1.6 in the rural site. The dog population density was estimated at 16 dogs/km2 and 4 dogs/km2 in the urban and rural sites, respectively. The confinement practices varied significantly among the urban and rural sites (P < 0.000000). The percentage of free-roaming owned dogs was 51.1% in the rural site and 31.4% in the urban site. More than 60.0% of the owned dogs in the urban site were confined. The majority of dogs in the rural site were born in the house, although, a high percentage (56.7%) of owned dogs in the urban site was adopted from neighbours, others sectors, or countries. The vaccination coverage findings indicated that 77.8% and 84.2% of the owned dog were vaccinated in the urban and rural sites, respectively. The estimated size of the free-roaming dogs was 72 dogs in the urban site (Kalaat Senan) and 16 dogs in the rural site (Sod el Khir).

Animal rabies epidemiology in Nepal from 2005 to 2017

Background and Aim: Animal rabies is endemic in Nepal, and it occurs in two forms. Although governmental and non-governmental agencies are working toward the control of rabies by mass dog vaccination and stray dog population management, there is still massive number of rabies incidence reported to the reference veterinary laboratory, Nepal. Therefore, this study aimed to assess animal species, temporal, regional, and agro-ecological distribution patterns of animal rabies in Nepal from 2005 to 2017. Materials and Methods: The epidemiological data on animal rabies from the period of 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Central Veterinary Laboratory, Tripureshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal. The laboratory-confirmed rabies cases were analyzed according to animal species, temporal, regional (developmental zones), and agro-ecological distributions. In addition, descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the distribution patterns of rabies. Results: From 2005 to 2017, a total of 2771 suspected rabies cases in animals were reported to The Central Veterinary Hospital, Kathmandu. Of which, 1302 were found laboratory-confirmed cases. The rabies cases were most commonly reported and confirmed in dogs followed by other domestic animals. The high occurrences were recorded between 2005 and 2007. However, the incidence was increased during 2016 and 2017. The highest number of rabies cases was recorded in the eastern development zone, and the least number in the central zone at regional level. Likewise, it was highest in the Terai (plain) region and lowest in mountainous areas at agro-ecological zones. The findings also revealed that the occurrences of rabies significantly differed among seasons. Conclusion: Rabies is present in Nepal throughout the year and all seasons with seasonal variation. Among the animal species, dogs are the primary animals affected with rabies followed by cattle and other domestic animals. At the regional level, eastern development zone had the highest incidence and Central development zone recorded the least. Similarly, the Terai region had the highest incidence rates, and the least overall prevalence rate was observed in mountainous regions among agro-ecological zones. Therefore, the government should implement the strict enforcement of mass dog vaccination and dog population management through one health approach to control rabies incidence in the country.

Animal bites and post-exposure prophylaxis in Central-West Tunisia: a 15-year surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a disease that still exists in developing countries and leads to more fatalities than other zoonotic diseases. Our study aimed to describe the profile of human exposures to animals over fifteen years and to assess the post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) practices in the governorate of Kasserine (Tunisia) on pre- and post-revolution (2011).

METHODS

We carried out a descriptive study using surveillance data from a region in Central-West Tunisia. All humans exposed to animals, residents in Kasserine Governorate and declared to the regional directorate of primary health care (RDPH) from January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2018 were included.

RESULTS

A total of 45,564 cases of human exposures to animals were reported over the fifteen-year period of the study with an annual average of 3089.2 ± 403.1. The standardized incidence rate (SIR) of human exposures to animals was 694 per year per 100,000 inhabitants (inh). The most listed offending animal was the dog (91.3%) and the most reported type of exposure was bites (63.7%). The trend in human exposures to animals increased significantly over time. The number of exposures by vaccinated dogs decreased significantly and by unvaccinated and stray dogs increased steeply. When comparing pre-and post-revolution periods, the yearly average of animal exposures post-2011 was significantly greater than the average prior to 2011 (3200 ± 278.5 vs 2952.8 ± 483) (p < 0.001). The yearly average of animal bites post-2011 was significantly greater than the average prior to 2011 (2260.5 ± 372.1 vs 1609.8 ± 217.9) (p < 0.001). The average number of vaccine doses per animal exposure was 2.4. Concerning PEP protocols, protocol A (2 and 3 doses) was indicated in 79% of animal exposures cases. From 2004 to 2018, a downward trend was noted for protocol A (r = - 0.29, p < 0.001) and an upward trend for protocol B (3 and 5 doses) (r = 0.687, p < 0.001). During our study period, 5 fatal cases of human rabies were declared.

CONCLUSION

Rabies remains a major public health problem in Tunisia. The political dynamics had an impact on the health care system and rabies control. Preventive measures should be applied adequately to decrease the burden of this disease.

Temporal and spatial distributions of animal and human rabies cases during 2012 and 2018, in Tunisia

Rabies is one of the most important zoonosis in Tunisia. In the last 6 years, a dramatic increase in the number of cases in animals had raised concern about the transmission dynamics of rabies and the effectiveness of established control measures. For a better understanding of the epidemiological features of rabies in Tunisia, data on animal and human rabies cases and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) protocol, for the period from 2012 to 2018, were analysed to describe the spatial and the temporal distributions of the disease and to guide targeted rabies control measures. Thus, the analysed data have shown that 2,642 animal and 25 human rabies cases were recorded between 2012 and 2018; only few case numbers were reported in wildlife. Time-related distribution showed that the incidence of dog rabies increases over the period of study, from 24,8/100,000 dog population in 2012 to 35,2/100,000 dog population in 2018. Dog seems to be the main reservoir of rabies as it accounted for more than 59% of the animal confirmed cases and the source for more than 80% of the human confirmed cases. Geographical distribution of animal rabies cases revealed the presence of clusters in the North and the Center of Tunisia; only a little number of animal cases were reported in the South. In contrast, the overall human rabies incidence was 0.03 per 100,000 population, during the period of the study. We have found that the incidence of human rabies increases by 13.6% from 2012 to 2015 and drops steadily by 23.41% over the second period (2015 to 2018). A high number of PEP was recorded during the 7-year period, with an average of 360 PEP per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Spatial analysis revealed the presence of clusters of PEP in the Northern and Central governorates. The present study pointed out the need to review the control strategy of rabies in Tunisia and conduct further studies on dog population to provide the basis for a new and efficacious policy of interventions and control program for rabies.