Resolving causes of developmental continuity or "tracking." I. Longitudinal twin studies during growth

Determining the stability of genome-wide factors in BMI between ages 40 to 69 years

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified common variants associated with BMI. However, the stability of aggregate genetic variation influencing BMI from midlife and beyond is unknown. By analysing 165,717 men and 193,073 women from the UKBiobank, we performed BMI GWAS on six independent five-year age intervals between 40 and 72 years. We then applied genomic structural equation modeling to test competing hypotheses regarding the stability of genetic effects for BMI. LDSR genetic correlations between BMI assessed between ages 40 to 73 were all very high and ranged 0.89 to 1.00. Genomic structural equation modeling revealed that molecular genetic variance in BMI at each age interval could not be explained by the accumulation of any age-specific genetic influences or autoregressive processes. Instead, a common set of stable genetic influences appears to underpin genome-wide variation in BMI from middle to early old age in men and women alike.

Notes on Three Decades of Methodology Workshops

Since 1987, a group of behavior geneticists have been teaching an annual methodology workshop on how to use state-of-the-art methods to analyze genetically informative data. In the early years, the focus was on analyzing twin and family data, using information of their known genetic relatedness to infer the role of genetic and environmental factors on phenotypic variation. With the rapid evolution of genotyping and sequencing technology and availability of measured genetic data, new methods to detect genetic variants associated with human traits were developed and became the focus of workshop teaching in alternate years. Over the years, many of the methodological advances in the field of statistical genetics have been direct outgrowths of the workshop, as evidence by the software and methodological publications authored by workshop faculty. We provide data and demographics of workshop attendees and evaluate the impact of the methodology workshops on scientific output in the field by evaluating the number of papers applying specific statistical genetic methodologies authored by individuals who have attended workshops.

GE covariance through phenotype to environment transmission: an assessment in longitudinal twin data and application to childhood anxiety

We considered identification of phenotype (at occasion t) to environment (at occasion t + 1) transmission in longitudinal model comprising genetic, common and unique environmental simplex models (autoregressions). This type of transmission, which gives rise to genotype-environment covariance, is considered to be important in developmental psychology. Having established identifying constraints, we addressed the issue of statistical power to detect such transmission given a limited set of parameter values. The power is very poor in the ACE simplex, but is good in the AE model. We investigated misspecification, and found that fitting the standard ACE simplex to covariance matrices generated by an AE simplex with phenotype to E transmission produces the particular result of a rank 1 C (common environment) covariance matrix with positive transmission, and a rank 1 D (dominance) matrix given negative transmission. We applied the models to mother ratings of anxiety in female twins (aged 3, 7, 10, and 12 years), and obtained support for the positive effect of one twin's phenotype on the other twin's environment.

The Behavioural Genetics of Personality Development in Adulthood—Classic, Contemporary, and Future Trends

Behavioural genetic research has led to important advances in the field of personality psychology. When carried out on longitudinal data, behavioural genetic studies also offer promising ways to examine the genetic and environmental origins of personality stability and change. Here, we review the findings of longitudinal twin studies, discuss their implications for our understanding of adult personality development, and point out open questions that need to be addressed by future research. Three general conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong and relatively stable genetic foundation of individual differences in personality throughout the adult life span; second, environmental influences become more important and contribute to an increasing rank–order stability of personality traits from early to middle adulthood; and third, both genetic and nonshared environmental influences contribute to both stability and change in personality traits. Equipped with this knowledge, the most urgent tasks for the next generation of behavioural genetic studies on personality development will be to (i) identify measurable environmental factors that matter and (ii) to capture the interplay between genetic and environmental influences on personality stability and change throughout adulthood. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Personality Psychology

Moderating the covariance between family member's substance use behavior

Twin and family studies implicitly assume that the covariation between family members remains constant across differences in age between the members of the family. However, age-specificity in gene expression for shared environmental factors could generate higher correlations between family members who are more similar in age. Cohort effects (cohort × genotype or cohort × common environment) could have the same effects, and both potentially reduce effect sizes estimated in genome-wide association studies where the subjects are heterogeneous in age. In this paper we describe a model in which the covariance between twins and non-twin siblings is moderated as a function of age difference. We describe the details of the model and simulate data using a variety of different parameter values to demonstrate that model fitting returns unbiased parameter estimates. Power analyses are then conducted to estimate the sample sizes required to detect the effects of moderation in a design of twins and siblings. Finally, the model is applied to data on cigarette smoking. We find that (1) the model effectively recovers the simulated parameters, (2) the power is relatively low and therefore requires large sample sizes before small to moderate effect sizes can be found reliably, and (3) the genetic covariance between siblings for smoking behavior decays very rapidly. Result 3 implies that, e.g., genome-wide studies of smoking behavior that use individuals assessed at different ages, or belonging to different birth-year cohorts may have had substantially reduced power to detect effects of genotype on cigarette use. It also implies that significant special twin environmental effects can be explained by age-moderation in some cases. This effect likely contributes to the missing heritability paradox.

Resiliency factors protecting against teenage alcohol use and smoking: influences of religion, religious involvement and values, and ethnicity in the Missouri Adolescent Female Twin Study

The objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of ethnicity (African American vs European/other ancestry), family religious affiliation, religious involvement, and religious values, to risk of alcohol and cigarette use in adolescent girls; and to estimate genetic and shared environmental effects on religious involvement and values. Telephone interviews were conducted with a sample of female like-sex twin pairs, aged 13–20 (n = 1687 pairs, including 220 minority pairs), as well as with one or both parents of twins aged 11–20 (n = 2111 families). These data, together with one-year follow-up twin questionnaire data, and two-year follow-up parent interview data, were used to compare ethnic differences. Proportional hazards regression models and genetic variance component models were fitted to the data. Despite higher levels of exposure to family, school and neighborhood environmental adversities, African American adolescents were less likely to become teenage drinkers or smokers. They showed greater religious involvement (frequency of attendance at religious services) and stronger religious values (eg belief in relying upon their religious beliefs to guide day-to-day living). Controlling for religious affiliation, involvement and values removed the ethnic difference in alcohol use, but had no effect on the difference in rates of smoking. Religious involvement and values exhibited high heritability in African Americans, but only modest heritability in EOAs. The strong protective effect of adolescent religious involvement and values, and its contribution to lower rates of African American alcohol use, was confirmed. We speculate about the possible association between high heritability of African American religious behavior and an accelerated maturation of religious values during adolescence.

Models for the longitudinal genetic analysis of same-age twins: application to HDL cholesterol

Models are presented for the analysis of longitudinal data from same-age twins which permit the exploration of a remarkably diverse array of alternative explanations for continuity and change during development. Data of this type permit the detection of new sources of genetic or environmental covariation during development that are not expressed at earlier ages and, because they include the effects of age-specific genes, the resulting heritability estimates are more reliable than those obtained from relatives who differ in age. The proposed models were applied to measurements of HDL cholesterol obtained on 81 pairs of monozygotic (MZ) twins and 69 dizygotic (DZ) pairs at 11, 12.5 and 14 years of age. All three MZ co-twin correlations were substantially higher than the self correlations across occasions, suggesting that new sources of genetic or environmental covariation must be expressed during early adolescence. This interpretation was confirmed by analysis of the full covariance matrices which showed that only models which assumed the expression of new or age-specific genes could explain the observed pattern of covariation. Because they include the effects of age-specific genes, the resulting heritabilities (0.80–0.83) were substantially higher than many previous estimates.

Structured latent growth curves for twin data

We describe methods to fit structured latent growth curves to data from MZ and DZ twins. The well-known Gompertz, logistic and exponential curves may be written as a function of three components – asymptote, initial value, and rate of change. These components are allowed to vary and covary within individuals in a structured latent growth model. Such models are highly economical, requiring a small number of parameters to describe covariation across many occasions of measurement. We extend these methods to analyse longitudinal data from MZ and DZ twins and focus on the estimation of genetic and environmental variation and covariation in each of the asymptote, initial and rate of growth factors. For illustration, the models are fitted to longitudinal Bayley Infant Mental Development Scale data published by McArdle (1986). In these data, all three components of growth appear strongly familial with the majority of variance associated with the shared environment; differences between the models were not great. Occasion-specific residual factors not associated with the curve components account for approximately 40% of variance of which a significant proportion is additive genetic. Though the growth curve model fit less well than some others, they make restrictive, falsifiable predictions about the mean, variance and twin covariance of other (not yet measured) occasions of measurement. Twin Research (2000) 3, 165–177.

Insensitivity of the analysis of variance to heredity-environment interaction

It makes sense to attribute a definite percentage of variation in some measure of behavior to variation in heredity only if the effects of heredity and environment are truly additive. Additivity is often tested by examining the interaction effect in a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) or its equivalent multiple regression model. If this effect is not statistically significant at the α = 0.05 level, it is common practice in certain fields (e.g., human behavior genetics) to conclude that the two factors really are additive and then to use linear models, which assume additivity. Comparing several simple models of nonadditive, interactive relationships between heredity and environment, however, reveals that ANOVA often fails to detect nonadditivity because it has much less power in tests of interaction than in tests of main effects. Likewise, the sample sizes needed to detect real interactions are substantially greater than those needed to detect main effects. Data transformations that reduce interaction effects also change drastically the properties ofthe causal model and may conceal theoretically interesting and practically useful relationships. If the goal ofpartitioning variance among mutually exclusive causes and calculating “heritability” coefficients is abandoned, interactive relationships can be examined more seriously and can enhance our understanding of the ways living things develop.

A biometric latent curve analysis of memory decline in older men of the NAS-NRC twin registry

Previous research has shown cognitive abilities to have different biometric patterns of age-changes. We examined the variation in episodic memory (word recall task) for over 6,000 twin pairs who were initially aged 59-75, and were subsequently re-assessed up to three more times over 12 years. In cross-sectional analyses, variation in the number of words recalled independent of age was explained largely by non-shared influences (65-72%), with clear additive genetic influences (12-32%), and marginal shared family influences (1-18%). The longitudinal phenotypic analysis of the word recall task showed systematic linear declines over age, but several nonlinear models with more dramatic changes at later ages, improved the overall fit. A two-part spline model for the longitudinal twin data with an optimal turning point at age 74 led to: (a) a separation of non-shared environmental influences and transient measurement error (~50%); (b) strong additive genetic components of this latent curve (~44% at age 60) with increases (over 50%) up to age 74, but with no additional genetic variation after age 74; (c) the smaller influences of shared family environment (~15% at age 74) were constant over all ages; (d) non-shared effects play an important role over most of the life-span but diminish after age 74.

Genes and Developmental Stabiltiy of Aggressive Behavior Problems at Home and School in a Community Sample of Twins Aged 7–12

Though behavioral genetic studies of aggression have implicated heritable and environmental factors, there is limited understanding of how these factors influence aggression across different settings and over time. Ratings for 732 twins were collected from parents and teachers during middle childhood and early adolescence. Total aggression scores on the Child Behavioral Checklist (CBCL) and Teacher Report Form (TRF) were examined at each age, across both settings, and developmentally. In this sample, aggressive behavior was moderately to largely heritable at each age within the home (.76-.84) and school (.42-.61). Across each age, ratings by parents and teachers were moderately correlated (.19-.36). Genetic and environmental effects that were limited to a particular setting were important etiological factors for aggressive behavior consistently within each setting, while only genetic factors influenced levels of aggression across both settings. Stability during these ages was due to genetic effects common to each age and the persistence of child-specific environmental experiences within each setting. These results suggest that genetic and environmental influences on children's aggressive behavior are largely setting specific. Levels of aggression seen consistently across both settings are due to genetic influences. Developmentally stable levels of aggressive behavior result from genetic influences common to all ages and individual environmental influences whose effects persist across ages.

Contributions of Genes and Environments to Stability and Change in Externalizing and Internalizing Problems During Elementary and Middle School

We examined longitudinally collected behavioral reports by teachers on a unique twin sample at the ages of 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 years. As twin and adoption studies implicate the role of genetic influence on behavioral problems found to be stable in epidemiological samples, the current study employs a developmental behavior genetic model to examine the extent to which genetic and environmental contributions to problem behaviors are stable and/or change during development. In this sample of 410 monozygotic (MZ) and 354 dizygotic (DZ) twins, MZ twins were rated as more similar than DZ twins on average. In general, boys were more frequently rated as displaying externalizing behaviors than were girls across each of the six observations, while girls' internalizing problems were found not to be significantly different from boys'. For both sexes, stability in externalizing problem behaviors was due to a single common genetic factor whose effects acted pleiotropically at each age in the presence of unique environmental influences that were transmitted from age-to-age. Change was largely due to uncorrelated age-specific non-shared environmental and additive genetic effects. Contributions to stability for internalizing problems were due to age-to-age transmission of earlier expressed genetic effects. Change for girls and boys internalizing problems were largely due to environmental experiences unique to siblings along with uncorrelated age-specific genetic effects. These results further inform the notion that individual environments are important factors in the etiology of problem behaviors, but suggest that heritable contributions to phenotypic stability are largely the same across middle childhood and early adolescence. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

Relating Factor Models for Longitudinal Data to Quasi-Simplex and NARMA Models

In this article we show the one-factor model can be rewritten as a quasi-simplex model. Using this result along with addition theorems from time series analysis, we describe a common general model, the nonstationary autoregressive moving average (NARMA) model, that includes as a special case, any latent variable model with continuous indicators and continuous latent variables. As an example, we show the NARMA representations of the linear growth curve model and the growth curve model with estimated basis vector coefficients. In certain instances rewriting competing models may help the investigator to compare different models. Here we compare the "hybrid" behavior genetics model of Eaves and Hewitt to the quasi-simplex model of Boomsma and Molenaar and show that both have equivalent NARMA representations which differ only in order.

Genetic and environmental influences on antisocial behavior and alcohol dependence from adolescence to early adulthood

Genetic and environmental influences on symptoms of adult antisocial behavior (AAB) and alcohol dependence at ages 17, 20, and 24 were examined cross-sectionally and longitudinally in 188 monozygotic and 101 dizygotic male twin pairs. A moderate genetic influence on both AAB and alcohol dependence was found at each age, with a substantial proportion of this influence common to the two disorders, suggesting they share susceptibility genes. Biometrical models showed that continuity effects accounted for most of the stable variance in symptoms of both AAB and alcohol dependence, indicating that genetic and environmental effects associated with each of these disorders were similar at each age. Significant cross-lag effects (effects of alcohol dependence contributing to variance in AAB and vice versa) were observed at ages 20 and 24 for both disorders. The largest and theoretically most interesting of these effects indicated that one sixth of the genetic influence on AAB at age 20 was due to genetic effects associated with alcohol dependence at age 17. Thus, alcohol dependence symptoms at age 17 in particular had an effect on antisocial behavior symptoms at age 20, suggesting that alcohol involvement in adolescence may ensnare otherwise desisting youth in persistent antisocial behavior.

A model of developmental change in hierarchical phenotypes with application to specific cognitive abilities

A hierarchical longitudinal path model is described for analysis of twin and sibling data. The model combines multivariate and longitudinal methodologies for assessment of continuity and change in the relationships among characters over time. Additionally, the model permits assessment of shared and independent etiologies for groups of measures at single and multiple occasions. The procedure is illustrated by application to specific cognitive ability data from 103 adopted and 109 nonadopted sibling pairs at ages 3, 4, 7, and 9 years, and 50 pairs of monozygotic and dizygotic twins at ages 3 and 4 years. The results suggest that much of the observed continuity in general intelligence measures is attributable to genetic influences common to specific abilities and indicate differential etiologies for specific abilities at different occasions in childhood.

Genetic analysis of drinking behavior in World War II veteran twins

The objective of the present study was to investigate longitudinal changes in drinking behaviors of adult male twins and model these changes as a function of genetic and environmental influences. Alcohol data available for World War II veteran twins, first surveyed in 1967-69 and followed up during 1983-85, were used to examine components of variability in measures of alcohol consumption. Multivariate biometric analysis of these data indicated 1) longitudinal stability of drinking behaviors in this cohort, 2) a significant contribution of genetic factors to the observed stability that accounted for more than 80% of the stable variation in frequency and in quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion, and 3) evidence for a significant contribution of shared environmental influences to drinking of specific beverages (e.g., wine). The implications of these results for issues of health in the elderly are considered.

A genetic and environmental time series analysis of blood pressure in male twins

Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured on 254 monozygotic (MZ) and 260 dizygotic (DZ) male twin pairs, during middle age (average age 48 years) and at two later age points. Genetic and environmental components of covariation were modeled by time series. For both measures, shared environmental influences were absent and specific environmental influences were largely time-specific. Although heritability was about 0.5 at each time point, genetic variation present at middle age contributed only about 60% to that present 9 years later, the remaining 40% being new. Fifteen years later, at the third time point, no new genetic variation was evident, variation in individual differences being entirely attributable to genetic differences laid down at the two earlier ages.

Quantitative genetic analysis of longitudinal trends in adoption designs with application to IQ in the Colorado Adoption Project

A factor model is presented that provides for either multivariate or developmental specification of longitudinal genetic and environmental effects in the presence of assortative mating and cultural transmission. Delta path methods are employed for the treatment of assortative mating and selective placement effects. The proportions of genetic and environmental variance and covariance attributable to assortative mating and cultural transmission are modeled explicitly. The model was applied to cognitive ability data on 493 families in the Colorado Adoption Project by means of maximum-likelihood pedigree analysis. A test of the assumption of multivariate normality of error provided an additional model criterion beyond the log-likelihood ratio statistic. No significant effects were found for cultural transmission, genetic-environmental covariance, or selective placement. The results suggest that the phenotypic stability of IQ during early childhood is largely, if not entirely, genetic in origin and that these longitudinal genetic effects can be represented most parsimoniously in the form of developmental transmission.

Of biases and more in the study of twins reared together: a reply to Grayson

Grayson (see the preceding paper) discusses some circumstances in which estimates of genetic and environmental parameters derived from the study of twins reared together may be biased and documents in those circumstances what the magnitude of the biases may be. As Grayson suggests, the points he makes have been made previously by various authors and issues such as the power to detect dominance have been analyzed at some length. This paper draws attention to some other sources of variation which Grayson does not consider but which have been considered by other writers and which might have somewhat different consequences for the estimation of shared environmental effects. The classical twin study has never been an end in itself, but it is the nucleus of a systematic genetic approach to the study of human behavior.