The effects of relative humidity and temperature on the survival of human rotavirus in faeces

Associations between meteorological variation and hospitalisations for rotavirus infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Objectives

Rotavirus (RoV) infections have emerged as a significant public health concern around the world. Understanding the relationship between climatic conditions and hospitalisations due to RoV infections can help engage effective prevention strategies. This study aims to investigate the potential associations between meteorological variability and RoV-related hospitalisations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Methods

Hospitalization data from a tertiary teaching hospital in Kuala Lumpur over a twelve-year period were retrospectively collected. Concurrently, meteorological data were obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) including variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure to further demonstrate relationship with RoV-associated hospitalisations.

Results

The results indicated positive correlations between increased rainfall, rainy days, humidity, and RoV-related hospitalisations, suggesting the influence of environmental factors on the transmission of RoV.

Conclusions

This study highlights positive associations between meteorological variations and hospitalizations for RoV infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Further investigations, including national-level data, are needed to deepen our understanding of these associations, particularly within the context of Malaysia and to develop targeted interventions for disease prevention and control.

Enhanced detection of viruses for improved water safety

Human viruses pose a significant health risk in freshwater environments, but current monitoring methods are inadequate for detecting viral presence efficiently. We evaluated a novel passive in-situ concentration method using granular activated carbon (GAC). This study detected and quantified eight enteric and non-enteric, pathogenic viruses in a freshwater recreational lake in paired grab and GAC passive samples. The results found that GAC passive sampling had a higher detection rate for all viruses compared to grab samples, with adenovirus found to be the most prevalent virus, followed by respiratory syncytial virus, norovirus, enterovirus, influenza A, SARS-CoV-2, and rotavirus. GAC in-situ concentration allowed for the capture and recovery of viral gene copy targets that ranged from one to three orders of magnitude higher than conventional ex-situ concentration methods used in viral monitoring. This simple and affordable sampling method may have far-reaching implications for reducing barriers associated with viral monitoring across various environmental contexts.

Transmission of a bumblebee parasite is robust despite parasite exposure to extreme temperatures

All organisms are exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, such as temperature. How individuals respond to temperature affects their interactions with one another. Changes to the interaction between parasites and their hosts can have a large effect on disease dynamics. The gut parasite, Crithidia bombi, can be highly prevalent in the bumblebee, Bombus terrestris, and is an established epidemiological model. The parasite is transmitted between bumblebees via flowers, exposing it to a range of environmental temperatures prior to infection. We investigated whether incubation duration and temperature exposure, prior to infection, affects parasite infectivity. Prior to inoculation in B. terrestris, C. bombi was incubated at 10, 20, 30, 40 or 50°C for either 10 or 60 min. These times were chosen to reflect the length of time that the parasite remains infective when outside the host and the rate of floral visitation in bumblebees. Prevalence and infection intensity were measured in bees 1 week later. Incubation duration and the interaction between incubation temperature and duration affected the prevalence of C. bombi at 50°C, resulting in no infections after 60 min. Below 50°C, C. bombi prevalence was not affected by incubation temperature or duration. Extreme temperatures induced morphological changes in C. bombi cells; however, infection intensity was not affected by incubation duration or temperature. These results highlight that this parasite is robust to a wide range of temperatures. The parasite was not infective after being exposed to 50°C for 60 min, such temperatures likely exceed the flight abilities of bumblebees, and thus the potential for transmission. This study shows the importance of understanding the effects of environmental conditions on both hosts and parasites, which is needed to predict transmission under different environmental conditions.

The impact of temperature and precipitation on all-infectious-, bacterial-, and viral-diarrheal disease in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The ongoing climate change will elevate the incidence of diarrheal in 2030-2050 in Asia, including Taiwan. This study investigated associations between meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation) and burden of age-cause-specific diarrheal diseases in six regions of Taiwan using 13 years of (2004-2016) population-based data.

METHODS

Weekly cause-specific diarrheal and meteorological data were obtained from 2004 to 2016. We used distributed lag non-linear model to assess age (under five, all age) and cause-specific (viral, bacterial) diarrheal disease burden associated with extreme high (99th percentile) and low (5th percentile) of climate variables up to lag 8 weeks in six regions of Taiwan. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool these region-specific estimates.

RESULTS

Extreme low temperature (15.30 °C) was associated with risks of all-infectious and viral diarrhea, with the highest risk for all-infectious diarrheal found at lag 8 weeks among all age [Relative Risk (RR): 1.44; 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI): 1.24-1.67]. The highest risk of viral diarrheal infection was observed at lag 2 weeks regardless the age. Extreme high temperature (30.18 °C) was associated with risk of bacterial diarrheal among all age (RR: 1.07; 95 % CI: 1.02-1.13) at lag 8 weeks. Likewise, extreme high precipitation (290 mm) was associated with all infectious diarrheal, with the highest risk observed for bacterial diarrheal among population under five years (RR: 2.77; 95 % CI: 1.60-4.79) at lag 8 weeks. Extreme low precipitation (0 mm) was associated with viral diarrheal in all age at lag 1 week (RR: 1.08; 95 % CI: 1.01-1.15)].

CONCLUSION

In Taiwan, extreme low temperature is associated with an increased burden of viral diarrheal, while extreme high temperature and precipitation elevated burden of bacterial diarrheal. This distinction in cause-specific and climate-hazard specific diarrheal disease burden underscore the importance of incorporating differences in public health preparedness measures designed to enhance community resilience against climate change.

Effects of Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation on Diarrhea Incidence in Surabaya

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a common infectious disease caused by various risk factors in developing countries. This study investigated the incidence rate and temporal associations between diarrhea and meteorological determinants in five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia.

METHOD

Monthly diarrhea records from local governmental health facilities in Surabaya and monthly means of weather variables, including average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency were collected from January 2018 to September 2020. The generalized additive model was employed to quantify the time lag association between diarrhea risk and extremely low (5th percentile) and high (95th percentile) monthly weather variations in the north, central, west, south, and east regions of Surabaya (lag of 0-2 months).

RESULT

The average incidence rate for diarrhea was 11.4 per 100,000 during the study period, with a higher incidence during rainy season (November to March) and in East Surabaya. This study showed that the weather condition with the lowest diarrhea risks varied with the region. The diarrhea risks were associated with extremely low and high temperatures, with the highest RR of 5.39 (95% CI 4.61, 6.17) in the east region, with 1 month of lag time following the extreme temperatures. Extremely low relative humidity increased the diarrhea risks in some regions of Surabaya, with the highest risk in the west region at lag 0 (RR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.79, 2.47)). Extremely high precipitation significantly affects the risk of diarrhea in the central region, at 0 months of lag time, with an RR of 3.05 (95% CI 2.09, 4.01).

CONCLUSION

This study identified a high incidence of diarrhea in the rainy season and in the deficient developed regions of Surabaya, providing evidence that weather magnifies the adverse effects of inadequate environmental sanitation. This study suggests the local environmental and health sectors codevelop a weather-based early warning system and improve local sanitation practices as prevention measures in response to increasing risks of infectious diseases.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of pathogen reduction in onsite sanitation systems

The safe management of fecal sludge from the 3.4 billion people worldwide that use onsite sanitation systems can greatly reduce the global infectious disease burden. However, there is limited knowledge about the role of design, operational, and environmental factors on pathogen survival in pit latrines, urine diverting desiccation toilets, and other types of onsite toilets. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to characterize pathogen reduction rates in fecal sludge, feces, and human excreta with respect to pH, temperature, moisture content, and the use of additives for desiccation, alkalinization, or disinfection. A meta-analysis of 1,382 data points extracted from 243 experiments described in 26 articles revealed significant differences between the decay rates and T₉₉ values of pathogens and indicators from different microbial groups. The overall median T₉₉ values were 4.8 days, 29 days, >341 days, and 429 days for bacteria, viruses, protozoan (oo)cysts, and Ascaris eggs, respectively. As expected, higher pH values, higher temperatures, and the application of lime all significantly predicted greater pathogen reduction rates but the use of lime by itself was more effective for bacteria and viruses than for Ascaris eggs, unless urea was also added. In multiple lab-scale experiments, the application of urea with enough lime or ash to reach a pH of 10 - 12 and a sustained concentration of 2,000 - 6,000 mg/L of non-protonated NH_3-N reduced Ascaris eggs more rapidly than without urea. In general, the storage of fecal sludge for 6 months adequately controls hazards from viruses and bacteria, but much longer storage times or alkaline treatment with urea and low moisture or heat is needed to control hazards from protozoa and helminths. More research is needed to demonstrate the efficacy of lime, ash, and urea in the field. More studies of protozoan pathogens are also needed, as very few qualifying experiments were found for this group.

A Review of Challenges and Approaches to Effective Medical Solid Waste Management During the COVID-19 Pandemic in India

With the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, medical solid waste management became a crucial element to control the spread of the virus. Lack of manpower, infrastructure, and knowledge have jeopardised the waste management system in India. In this respect, the present study intends to recollect and discusses the policies and guidelines of solid waste management by outlining the challenges associated with its implementation. The study adopted a review approach, where a collective appraisal and analysis of prior research, reports, lead to the evaluation of the present situation and advocated remedial measures. The study discussed measures recommended by various international organisations for effective medical waste management to deal with the present situation, as well as to eliminate and confront similar challenges in the event of future probable epidemics. Moreover, the study is a guide to the policymakers, regulatory authorities and the community for efficient medical waste management during and post-pandemic days.

Epidemiological significance of the occurrence and persistence of rotaviruses in water and sewage: a critical review and proposal for routine microbiological monitoring

Globally, waterborne gastroenteritis attributable to rotaviruses is on the increase due to the rapid increase in population growth, poor socioeconomic conditions, and drastic changes in climatic conditions. The burden of diarrhea is quite alarming in developing nations where the majority of the populations still rely on untreated surface water that is usually polluted for their immediate water needs. Humans and animals of all ages are affected by rotaviruses. In humans, the preponderance of cases occurs in children under 5 years. Global efforts in advancing water/wastewater treatment technologies have not yet realized the objective of complete viral removal from wastewater. Most times, surface waters are impacted heavily by inadequately treated wastewater run-offs thereby exposing people or animals to preventable health risks. The relative stability of rotaviruses in aquatic matrices during wastewater treatment, poor correlation of bacteriological indicators with the presence of rotaviruses, and their infectiousness at a low dose informed the proposal for inclusion in the routine microbiological water screening panel. Environmental monitoring data have been shown to provide early warnings that can complement clinical data used to monitor the impact of current rotavirus vaccination in a community. This review was therefore undertaken to critically appraise rotavirus excretion and emission pathways, and the existence, viability and persistence in the receiving aquatic milieu. The efficiency of the current wastewater treatment modality for rotavirus removal, correlation of the current bacteriological water quality assessment strategy, public health risks and current laboratory methods for an epidemiological study were also discussed.

Associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections by pathogen: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have quantified the associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections, particularly all-cause enteric infections. However, the temperature sensitivity of enteric infections might be pathogen dependent. Here, we sought to identify pathogen-specific associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis by searching PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed research articles published from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019, and also hand searched reference lists of included articles and excluded reviews. We included studies that quantified the effects of ambient temperature increases on common pathogen-specific enteric infections in humans. We excluded studies that expressed ambient temperature as a categorical or diurnal range, or in a standardised format. Two authors screened the search results, one author extracted data from eligible studies, and four authors verified the data. We obtained the overall risks by pooling the relative risks of enteric infection by pathogen for each 1°C temperature rise using random-effects modelling and robust variance estimation for the correlated effect estimates. Between-study heterogeneity was measured using I², τ², and Q-statistic. Publication bias was determined using funnel plot asymmetry and the trim-and-fill method. Differences among pathogen-specific pooled estimates were determined using subgroup analysis of taxa-specific meta-analysis. The study protocol was not registered but followed the PRISMA guidelines.

FINDINGS

We identified 2981 articles via database searches and 57 articles from scanning reference lists of excluded reviews and included articles, of which 40 were eligible for pathogen-specific meta-analyses. The overall increased risks of incidence per 1°C temperature rise, expressed as relative risks, were 1·05 (95% CI 1·04-1·07; I² 97%) for salmonellosis, 1·07 (1·04-1·10; I² 99%) for shigellosis, 1·02 (1·01-1·04; I² 98%) for campylobacteriosis, 1·05 (1·04-1·07; I² 36%) for cholera, 1·04 (1·01-1·07; I² 98%) for Escherichia coli enteritis, and 1·15 (1·07-1·24; I² 0%) for typhoid. Reduced risks per 1°C temperature increase were 0·96 (95% CI 0·90-1·02; I² 97%) for rotaviral enteritis and 0·89 (0·81-0·99; I² 96%) for noroviral enteritis. There was evidence of between-pathogen differences in risk for bacterial infections but not for viral infections.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature sensitivity of enteric infections can vary according to the enteropathogen causing the infection, particularly for bacteria. Thus, we encourage a pathogen-specific health adaptation approach, such as vaccination, given the possibility of increasingly warm temperatures in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Kakenhi) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research.

Effects of climatic factors and particulate matter on Rotavirus A infections in Cheonan, Korea, in 2010-2019

Rotavirus A is the most common cause of infectious diarrhea worldwide. This study aimed to retrospectively study and analyze 4009 stool samples that were tested for viruses causing diarrhea, using multiplex reverse transcription PCR at Dankook University Hospital between 2010 and 2019. Furthermore, we determined the correlation between these factors and various climatic factors, including wind-chill temperature, relative humidity, rate of sunshine, and particulate matter. Rotavirus A infections occurred frequently in February, March, and April on an annual basis. Furthermore, during the study, the detection rate was highest at 17.0% (n=61/359) in 2011. Based on an analysis of weather big data, patient age, and period-specific infection during the summer, when the wind-chill temperature and relative humidity were high, the Rotavirus A infection rate was very low. Relative humidity (p=0.020) and particulate matter (p=0.049) were associated with the average number of monthly cases of Rotavirus A infection. However, wind chill temperature (p=0.074) and rate of sunshine (p=0.993) were not associated with the average monthly distribution of Rotavirus A cases. These results indicate that Rotavirus A infection was correlated with relative humidity and particulate matter during the study period and further the current understanding of the distribution of Rotavirus A infections resulting from climatic factors and particulate matter. This could help establish climate-related health policies to reduce the incidence of diarrhea and guide the development of vaccines against Rotavirus A.

Microbial Air Quality in Healthcare Facilities

There is increasing evidence that indoor air quality and contaminated surfaces provide an important potential source for transmission of pathogens in hospitals. Airborne hospital microorganisms are apparently harmless to healthy people. Nevertheless, healthcare settings are characterized by different environmental critical conditions and high infective risk, mainly due to the compromised immunologic conditions of the patients that make them more vulnerable to infections. Thus, spread, survival and persistence of microbial communities are important factors in hospital environments affecting health of inpatients as well as of medical and nursing staff. In this paper, airborne and aerosolized microorganisms and their presence in hospital environments are taken into consideration, and the factors that collectively contribute to defining the infection risk in these facilities are illustrated.

A 21-year retrospective analysis of environmental impacts on paediatric acute gastroenteritis in an affluent setting

BACKGROUND

Extreme weather events happen more frequently along with global warming and they constitute a challenge for public health preparedness. For example, many investigations showed heavy rainfall was associated with an increased risk of acute gastroenteritis. In this study, we examined the associations between different meteorological factors and paediatric acute gastroenteritis in an affluent setting in China controlling for pollutant effects.

METHODS

Aggregated total weekly number of intestinal infection-related hospital admissions, and meteorological and air pollution data during 1998-2018 in Hong Kong were collected and analysed by a combination of quasi-Poisson generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model. Study population was restricted to children under 5 years of age at the time of admission.

RESULTS

While heavy rainfall did not exhibit a statistically significant association with the risk of paediatric admission due to intestinal infections, low temperature and humidity extremes (both relative humidity and vapour pressure) did. Compared with the temperature at which the lowest risk was detected (i.e. 22.5 °C), the risk was 6.4% higher (95% confidence interval: 0.0% to 13.0% at 15.1 °C (i.e. the 5th percentile)). We also found the risk of paediatric admission was statistically significantly associated with an increase in the number of extreme cold days in a week over the study period.

CONCLUSION

Cold condition may have greater impact on disease transmission through increased stability and infectivity of enteric viruses in affluent settings like Hong Kong and thus resulted in an increased risk for paediatric acute gastroenteritis. On the contrary, an insignificant impact from heavy rainfall and high temperature may indicate a minor effect on disease transmission through bacterial growth in contaminated food and water. With the identified impacts of weather factors, extreme weather events are likely to distort the prevalence and seasonal pattern of diarrhoeal diseases in the future.

Persistence of Pathogens on Inanimate Surfaces: A Narrative Review

For the prevention of infectious diseases, knowledge about transmission routes is essential. In addition to respiratory, fecal-oral, and sexual transmission, the transfer of pathogens via surfaces plays a vital role for human pathogenic infections-especially nosocomial pathogens. Therefore, information about the survival of pathogens on surfaces can have direct implications on clinical measures, including hygiene guidelines and disinfection strategies. In this review, we reviewed the existing literature regarding viral, bacterial, and fungal persistence on inanimate surfaces. In particular, the current knowledge of the survival time and conditions of clinically relevant pathogens is summarized. While many pathogens persist only for hours, common nosocomial pathogens can survive for days to weeks under laboratory conditions and thereby potentially form a continuous source of transmission if no adequate inactivation procedures are performed.

Genetic diversity of group A rotavirus in acute gastroenteritis outpatients in Shanghai from 2017 to 2018

Background

Group A Rotavirus (RVA), despite being an important pathogen in hospitalized children, is less studied in pediatric outpatients, and even rarely investigated in adults. This study aims to understand the genetic diversity of RVA in outpatients across all age groups in Shanghai, and thus providing a molecular basis for vaccine implementation and evaluation.

Methods

Stool samples were first screened by Real-time Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR). RVA genotyping was performed through the amplification of partial VP7 and VP4 gene. Strains of interest were further sequenced and analyzed using MEGA 6.0.

Results

Four thousand nine hundred one samples were collected, from which 7.61% (373 cases) were screened positive for RVA. RVA prevalence was higher in children (9.30%) than in adults (7.21%) (χ² = 4.72, P < 0.05). 9.38% RVA positive cases had taken antibiotics before hospital visit while 49.60% had been prescribed antibiotics afterwards. RVA displayed a strong seasonality in both adults and children with a shared commonality in genotype repertoire, where G9P[8] was the most prevalent strain (67.96%) followed by G3P[8] (15.49%) and G1P[8] (12.32%). Meanwhile the first local case of fecal shedding of the G10P[15] vaccine strain was also discovered.

Conclusions

While the prevalence of rotavirus is highest during cold seasons, it is revealed for the first time that G9P[8] is the predominant genotype in both adults and pediatric outpatients. Clinically, higher occurrence of nausea or vomiting was observed in RVA positive cases. Antibiotic overuse was implicated in both non-clinical and clinical settings. The finding emphasizes the importance of RVA genotyping in surveillance as it provides the basis for new vaccine application as well as a baseline for future vaccine efficacy evaluation.

The use of aged stool specimens for the detection of rotavirus

Background

Rotavirus is considered worldwide as one of the most important viral gastrointestinal infections, resulting in potentially life-threatening diarrhoea and death in children under the age of 5 years. Rotavirus can survive and remain infectious for long periods outside of the human body and can be easily transmitted via environmental surfaces.

Method

Stool specimens that had been collected and stored since 2010/2011 at 2°C – 8°C instead of −20°C or −80°C were analysed to determine the viability of rotavirus in these specimens after 6 years of improper storage. The specimens were analysed using simple enzyme immunoassay (EIA) methods from two different suppliers at different times throughout the period (2012–2017).

Results

The analysis showed similar detection results for the two EIA kits.

Conclusion

The rotavirus can be detected after several years of incorrect storage with EIA kits.

Association of meteorological factors with infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangzhou, southern China: A time-series study (2006-2017)

BACKGROUND

Infectious diarrhea (ID) has exerted a severe disease burden on the world. The seasonal ID patterns suggest that meteorological factors (MFs) may influence ID incidence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of MFs on ID, and to provide scientific evidence to the relevant health authorities for disease control and prevention.

METHODS

Data from ID cases and daily MFs (including mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and wind velocity) in Guangzhou, Southern China from 2006 to 2017 were collected. Using a distributed lag non-linear model approach, we assessed the relationship between MFs and ID incidence.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest ID risk values, low mean temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation were associated with an increased risk for ID, while higher diurnal temperature range and atmospheric pressure were also associated with increased risk. Maximum atmospheric pressure and minimum relative humidity had larger cumulative effects within 21 lag days, yielding relative risks of 133.11 (95% CI: 61.29-289.09) and 18.17 (14.42-22.89), respectively. The cumulative effect within 21 lag days of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in all sub-populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for men, teenagers, and young adults (10-29 years) were higher than those for other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

MFs should be considered when developing prevention and surveillance programs for ID. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.

A time-series study of the association of rainfall, relative humidity and ambient temperature with hospitalizations for rotavirus and norovirus infection among children in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus and norovirus are infectious pathogens primarily affecting children under 5 years old. The impact of rainfall on diarrheal diseases remains inconclusive. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term variation in rainfall, temperature and humidity, and rotavirus and norovirus hospitalizations among young children in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Generalized additive negative binomial regression models with distributed lag non-linear terms, were fit with daily counts of hospital admissions due to rotavirus and norovirus infection as the outcomes and daily total rainfall and other meteorological variables as predictors, adjusting for seasonality and trend.

RESULTS

Generally, greater rainfall was associated with fewer rotavirus, but more norovirus hospitalizations. Extreme precipitation (99.5 mm, 99th percentile) was found to be associated with 0.40 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.79) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.21-3.09) times the risk of hospitalization due to rotavirus and norovirus infection respectively, relative to trace rainfall. Stronger associations were observed in winter for rotavirus and in summer for norovirus. The duration of association with rotavirus was notably longer than norovirus. Higher temperatures were found to be associated with fewer hospitalizations for both rotavirus and norovirus infection, while higher relative humidity was generally associated with more norovirus, but fewer rotavirus, hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Both rotavirus and norovirus hospitalizations were strongly associated with recent precipitation variation but in opposite directions. With the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine norovirus is likely to become a greater threat than rotavirus and thus greater precipitation may become more clearly associated with more childhood diarrhea.

Spatial variation of heat-related morbidity: A hierarchical Bayesian analysis in multiple districts of the Mekong Delta Region

This study examined spatial variability of heat-related morbidity in multiple districts of the Mekong Delta Region (MDR), Vietnam. It was conducted in 132 district/cities of the MDR. We used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine the region-wide and district-specific association between temperatures and hospitalizations during the period of 2010-2013. The potential effects of seasonality, long-term trends, day of the week and holidays were controlled in the models. We also examined influences of socio-demographic factors on the temperature-hospitalization relationship. The results indicate that an increase of 5 °C in average temperature was associated with a 6.1% increase (95%CI: 5.9, 6.2) in region-wide hospital admissions. However, the district-level risks ranged from a 55.2% decrease {95%CI: (-54), (-56)} to a 24.4% increase (24.3-24.6) in admissions per 5 °C increase in average temperature. This reflects the heterogeneous magnitudes of temperature-hospitalization risk across districts. The results also indicate that temperature-hospitalization risk increased by 1.3% (95%CI: 1.2-1.4), for each increase of 1000 persons/km² in population density, 2.1% (95%CI: 2.04-2.11) for each 1% increase in percent of females, and 2.7% (95%CI: 2.6-2.8) for each 1% increase in percent of pre-school students. In contrast, the temperature-related hospitalization risk decreased up to 6.8% {(95%CI: (-6.6)-(-6.9)} for each 1% increase in rural population. Public health intervention measures for both short-term and long-term effects of heat-related health risk should be developed with consideration of the use of city/district scale for the factors rather than the province scale. The province scale of factors does not accurately represent the variability of health risk due to exposure to high temperatures.

Upsurge and spread of G3 rotaviruses in Eastern India (2014-2016): Full genome analyses reveals heterogeneity within Wa-like genomic constellation

Advent of new strains and shift in predominantly circulating genotypes are characteristics of group- A rotavirus (RVA), one of the major causes of childhood gastroenteritis. During diarrheal disease surveillance at Kolkata, India (2014-2016), a shift in circulating RVA strains from G1P[8] to G3P[8] was seen. Stool samples from children (n = 3048) with acute gastroenteritis were tested of which 38.7% were RVA positive. G1 was the predominant strain (65.3%) in 2014-2015 whereas in late 2015 and 2016, G3 became the preponderant strain (44.6%). In the past decade G3 strains were not observed in this region, we conducted whole genome sequencing of representative strains to gain insight into the phenomenon of emergence and genetic constellation of these circulating human G3 strains. The analyses revealed intergenogroup reassortment in G3P[4] strains (among Wa and DS-1-like genogroup) whereas G3P[8] strains were authentic Wa-like. Phylogenetic analysis revealed Kolkata G3 strains as polymorphic and thus they formed two sub-clusters due to antigenic differences in their VP7 protein. One of the sub-clusters had the wild-type threonine at 87 amino acid position while another sub-cluster had an isoleucine mutation. Presence of additional N-linked glycosylation site at amino acid 283 of VP7 glycoprotein suggests that the major neutralizing epitope on the VP7 (G3) of RotaTeq vaccine differs from the currently circulating G3 strains. The study is important as efficiency of rotavirus vaccine depends on the circulating heterogeneous genotype constellations. Continuous monitoring of circulating RVA strains in endemic settings like India is therefore important in pre- and post-vaccination period to monitor the emergence of new reassortant genotypes in addition to assessing vaccine efficacy.

Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

Modeling environmentally mediated rotavirus transmission: The role of temperature and hydrologic factors

Rotavirus is considered a directly transmitted disease due to its high infectivity. Environmental pathways have, therefore, largely been ignored. Rotavirus, however, persists in water sources, and both its surface water concentrations and infection incidence vary with temperature. Here, we examine the potential for waterborne rotavirus transmission. We use a mechanistic model that incorporates both direct and waterborne transmission pathways, coupled with a hydrological model, and we simulate rotavirus transmission between two communities with interconnected water sources. To parameterize temperature dependency, we estimated temperature-dependent decay rates in water through a meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis suggests that rotavirus decay rates are positively associated with temperature (n = 39, P [Formula: see text] 0.001). This association is stronger at higher temperatures (over 20 °C), consistent with tropical climate conditions. Our model analysis demonstrates that water could disseminate rotavirus between the two communities for all modeled temperatures. While direct transmission was important for disease amplification within communities, waterborne transmission could also amplify transmission. In standing-water systems, the modeled increase in decay led to decreased disease, with every 1 °C increase in temperature leading to up to a 2.4% decrease in incidence. These effect sizes are consistent with prior meta-analyses, suggesting that environmental transmission through water sources may partially explain the observed associations between temperature and rotavirus incidence. Waterborne rotavirus transmission is likely most important in cooler seasons and in communities that use slow-moving or stagnant water sources. Even when indirect transmission through water cannot sustain outbreaks, it can seed outbreaks that are maintained by high direct transmission rates.

The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of socioecological factors on multiple communicable diseases across Vietnam.

METHODS

We used the Moran's I tests to evaluate spatial clusters of diseases and applied multilevel negative binomial regression models using the Bayesian framework to analyse the association between socioecological factors and the diseases queried by oral, airborne, vector-borne, and animal transmission diseases.

RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE

The study found that oral-transmission diseases were spatially distributed across the country; whereas, the airborne-transmission diseases were more clustered in the Northwest and vector-borne transmission diseases were more clustered in the South. Most of diseases were sensitive with climatic factors. For instance, a 1°C increase in average temperature is significantly associated with 0.4% (95CI, 0.3-0.5), 2.5% (95%CI, 1.4-3.6), 0.9% (95%CI, 0.6-1.4), 1.1% (95%CI), 5% (95%CI, 3-.7.4), 0.4% (95%CI, 0.2-0.7), and 2% (95%CI, 1.5-2.8) increase in risk of diarrhoea, shigellosis, mumps, influenza, dengue, malaria, and rabies respectively. The influences of socio-economic factors on risk of communicable diseases are varied by factors with the biggest influence of population density. The research findings reflect an important implication for the climate change adaptation strategies of health sectors. A development of weather-based early warning systems should be considered to strengthen communicable disease prevention in Vietnam.

Quantification of Rotavirus Diarrheal Risk Due to Hydroclimatic Extremes Over South Asia: Prospects of Satellite-Based Observations in Detecting Outbreaks

Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among children under 5. Especially in South Asia, rotavirus remains the leading cause of mortality in children due to diarrhea. As climatic extremes and safe water availability significantly influence diarrheal disease impacts in human populations, hydroclimatic information can be a potential tool for disease preparedness. In this study, we conducted a multivariate temporal and spatial assessment of 34 climate indices calculated from ground and satellite Earth observations to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes on the seasonality of rotavirus transmission in Bangladesh. We extracted rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement and temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors to validate the analyses and explore the potential of a satellite-based seasonal forecasting model. Our analyses found that the number of rainy days and nighttime temperature range from 16°C to 21°C are particularly influential on the winter transmission cycle of rotavirus. The lower number of wet days with suitable cold temperatures for an extended time accelerates the onset and intensity of the outbreaks. Temporal analysis over Dhaka also suggested that water logging during monsoon precipitation influences rotavirus outbreaks during a summer transmission cycle. The proposed model shows lag components, which allowed us to forecast the disease outbreaks 1 to 2 months in advance. The satellite data-driven forecasts also effectively captured the increased vulnerability of dry-cold regions of the country, compared to the wet-warm regions.

Comparative epidemiology of poliovirus transmission

Understanding the determinants of polio transmission and its large-scale epidemiology remains a public health priority. Despite a 99% reduction in annual wild poliovirus (WPV) cases since 1988, tackling the last 1% has proven difficult. We identified key covariates of geographical variation in polio transmission patterns by relating country-specific annual disease incidence to demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors. We assessed the relative contributions of these variables to the performance of computer-generated models for predicting polio transmission. We also examined the effect of spatial coupling on the polio extinction frequency in islands relative to larger land masses. Access to sanitation, population density, forest cover and routine vaccination coverage were the strongest predictors of polio incidence, however their relative effect sizes were inconsistent geographically. The effect of climate variables on polio incidence was negligible, indicating that a climate effect is not identifiable at the annual scale, suggesting a role for climate in shaping the transmission seasonality rather than intensity. We found polio fadeout frequency to depend on both population size and demography, which should therefore be considered in policies aimed at extinction. Our comparative epidemiological approach highlights the heterogeneity among polio transmission determinants. Recognition of this variation is important for the maintenance of population immunity in a post-polio era.

Bagtzoglou A, Anagnostou E. Effect of climatic variability on childhood diarrhea and its high risk periods in northwestern parts of Ethiopia

Background

Increasing climate variability as a result of climate change will be one of the public health challenges to control infectious diseases in the future, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia.

Objective

To investigate the effect of climate variability on childhood diarrhea (CDD) and identify high risk periods of diarrheal diseases.

Methods

The study was conducted in all districts located in three Zones (Awi, West and East Gojjam) of Amhara Region in northwestern parts of Ethiopia. Monthly CDD cases for 24 months (from July 2013 to June 2015) reported to each district health office from the routine surveillance system were used for the study. Temperature, rainfall and humidity data for each district were extracted from satellite precipitation estimates and global atmospheric reanalysis. The space-time permutation scan statistic was used to identify high risk periods of CDD. A negative binomial regression was used to investigate the relationship between cases of CDD and climate variables. Statistical analyses were conducted using SaTScan program and StataSE v. 12.

Results

The monthly average incidence rate of CDD was 11.4 per 1000 (95%CI 10.8–12.0) with significant variation between males [12.5 per 1000 (95%CI 11.9 to 13.2)] and females [10.2 per 1000 (95%CI 9.6 to 10.8)]. The space-time permutation scan statistic identified the most likely high risk period of CDD between March and June 2014 located in Huletej Enese district of East Gojjam Zone. Monthly average temperature and monthly average rainfall were positively associated with the rate of CDD, whereas the relative humidity was negatively associated with the rate of CDD.

Conclusions

This study found that the most likely high risk period is in the beginning of the dry season. Climatic factors have an association with the occurrence of CDD. Therefore, CDD prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations to improve programs on CDD.

Heatwave and risk of hospitalization: A multi-province study in Vietnam

The effects of heatwaves on morbidity in developing and tropical countries have not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between heatwaves and hospitalization and the potential influence of socio-economic factors on this relationship in Vietnam. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with Poisson family and Distributed Lag Models (DLM) were applied to evaluate the effect of heatwaves for each province (province-level effect). A random-effects meta-analysis was applied to calculate the pooled estimates (country-level effects) for 'all causes', infectious, cardiovascular, and respiratory admissions queried by lag days, regions, sex, and ages. We used random-effects meta-regression to explore the potential influence of socio-economic factors on the relationship between heatwaves and hospitalization. The size of province-level effects varied across provinces. The pooled estimates show that heatwaves were significantly associated with a 2.5% (95%CI: 0.8-4.3) and 3.8% (95%CI, 1.5-6.2) increase in all causes and infectious admissions at lag 0. Cardiovascular and respiratory admissions (0.8%, 95%CI: -1.6-3.3; 2.2%, 95%CI: -0.7-5.2) were not significantly increased after a heatwave event. The risk of hospitalization due to heatwaves was higher in the North than in the South for all causes (5.4%, 95%CI: -0.1-11.5 versus 1.3%, 95%CI: 0.1-2.6), infectious (11.2%, 95%CI: 3.1-19.9 versus 3.2%, 95%CI: 0.7-5.7), cardiovascular (7.5%, 95%CI: 1.1-14.4 versus -1.2%, 95%CI: -2.6-2.3), and respiratory diseases (2.7%, 95%CI: -5.4-11.5 versus 2.1%, 95%CI: -0.8-1.2). A non-significant influence of socio-economic factors on the relationship between heatwave and hospitalization was observed. This study provides important evidence and suggests implications for the projected impacts of climate change related extreme weather. Climate change adaptation programs of the health sector should be developed to protect residents from the effects of extreme weather events such as heatwaves in Vietnam.

High temperature and risk of hospitalizations, and effect modifying potential of socio-economic conditions: A multi-province study in the tropical Mekong Delta Region

The Mekong Delta Region (MDR) in Vietnam is highly vulnerable to extreme weather related to climate change. However there have been hardly any studies on temperature-hospitalization relationships. The objectives of this study were to examine temperature-hospitalization relationship and to evaluate the effects of socio-economic factors on the risk of hospitalizations due to high temperature in the MDR. The Generalized Linear and Distributed Lag Models were used to examine hospitalizations for extreme temperature for each of the 13 provinces in the MDR. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled risk for all causes, and for infectious, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases sorted by sex and age groups. Random-effects meta-regression was used to evaluate the effect of socio-economic factors on the temperature-hospitalization association. For 1°C increase in average temperature, the risk of hospital admissions increased by 1.3% (95% CI, 0.9-1.8) for all causes, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.4-3.1) for infectious diseases, and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.5-1.7) for respiratory diseases. However the result was inconsistent for cardiovascular diseases. Meta-regression showed population density, poverty rate, and illiteracy rate increased the risk of hospitalization due to high temperature, while higher household income, houses using safe water, and houses using hygienic toilets reduced this risk. In the MDR, high temperatures have a significant impact on hospitalizations for infectious and respiratory diseases. Our findings have important implications for better understanding the future impacts of climate change on residents of the MDR. Adaptation programs that consider the risk and protective factors should be developed to protect residents from extreme temperature conditions.

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

Temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoea in the Mekong Delta area, Vietnam

This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoea in relation to hydro-meteorological factors in the Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. A time-series design was applied to examine the temporal pattern of the climate-diarrhoea relationship using Poisson regression models. Spatial analysis was applied to examine the spatial clusters of diarrhoea using Global Moran's I and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA). The temporal pattern showed that the highest peak of diarrhoea was from weeks 30-42 corresponding to August-October annually. A 1 cm increase in river water level at a lag of 1 week was associated with a small [0·07%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·01-0·1] increase in the diarrhoeal rate. A 1 °C increase in temperature at lag of 2 and 4 weeks was associated with a 1·5% (95% CI 0·3-2·7) and 1·1% (95% CI 0·1-2·3) increase in diarrhoeal risk, respectively. Relative humidity and diarrhoeal risk were in nonlinear relationship. The spatial analysis showed significant clustering of diarrhoea, and the LISA map shows three multi-centred diarrhoeal clusters and three single-centred clusters in the research location. The findings suggest that climatic conditions projected to be associated with climate change have important implication for human health impact in the Mekong Delta region.

Temperature as a risk factor for hospitalisations among young children in the Mekong Delta area, Vietnam

BACKGROUND

The Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable region to climate change in South-East Asia; however, the association between climate and children's health has rarely been studied in this region.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the short-term association between daily temperature and hospital admissions for all causes, gastrointestinal and respiratory infection, among young children in the Mekong Delta area in Vietnam.

METHODS

Daily paediatric hospital admissions and meteorological data were obtained from January 2008 to December 2012. A time-series approach was used with a combination of a Poisson regression and constrained distributed lag models to analyse the data. The long-term and seasonal trends, as well as other time-varying covariates, were adjusted using spline functions. Temperature--pediatric admission relationship was evaluated by age-specific (0-2 and 3-5-year-olds) and cause of admission groupings.

RESULTS

A 1°C increase in the 2-day moving average temperature was significantly associated with a 3.4% (95% CI 1.2% to 5.5%), 4.6% (95% CI 2.2% to 7.3%), 2.6% (95% CI 0.6% to 4.6%), 4.4% (95% CI 0.6% to 8.2%) and 3.8%(95% CI 0.4% to 7.2%) increase in hospital admissions with 0-2-year-old children, 3-5-year-old children, all causes, gastrointestinal infection and respiratory infection, respectively. The cumulative effects from 1-day to 6-day moving average temperature on hospital admissions were greater for 3-5-year-old children and gastrointestinal infection than for 0-2-year-old children and other causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature was found to be significantly associated with hospital admissions in young children with the highest association between temperature and gastrointestinal infection. The government agencies of Mekong Delta should implement measures to protect children from the changing temperature conditions related to climate change.

Absolute Humidity Influences the Seasonal Persistence and Infectivity of Human Norovirus

Norovirus (NoV) is one of the main causative agents of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. In temperate climates, outbreaks peak during the winter season. The mechanism by which climatic factors influence the occurrence of NoV outbreaks is unknown. We hypothesized that humidity is linked to NoV seasonality. Human NoV is not cultivatable, so we used cultivatable murine norovirus (MNV) as a surrogate to study its persistence when exposed to various levels of relative humidity (RH) from low (10% RH) to saturated (100% RH) conditions at 9 and 25°C. In addition, we conducted similar experiments with virus-like particles (VLPs) from the predominant GII-4 norovirus and studied changes in binding patterns to A, B, and O group carbohydrates that might reflect capsid alterations. The responses of MNV and VLP to humidity were somewhat similar, with 10 and 100% RH exhibiting a strong conserving effect for both models, whereas 50% RH was detrimental for MNV infectivity and VLP binding capacity. The data analysis suggested that absolute humidity (AH) rather than RH is the critical factor for keeping NoV infectious, with an AH below 0.007 kg water/kg air being favorable to NoV survival. Retrospective surveys of the meteorological data in Paris for the last 14 years showed that AH average values have almost always been below 0.007 kg water/kg air during the winter (i.e., 0.0046 ± 0.0014 kg water/kg air), and this finding supports the fact that low AH provides an ideal condition for NoV persistence and transmission during cold months.

Baseline burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan to monitor the impact of vaccination

BACKGROUND

In 2011, Sudan became the first low-income country in Africa to introduce a rotavirus vaccine. Prevaccine baseline data on rotavirus disease burden are crucial for monitoring the impact of this new vaccine program.

METHODS

We conducted active, hospital-based surveillance for rotavirus disease at 8 regional public hospitals in Sudan using a standard protocol recommended by the World Health Organization for 2 full years immediately preceding vaccine introduction. Cases were children <5 years hospitalized with gastroenteritis, defined as acute onset of 3 or more loose stools or 2 or more episodes of vomiting in a 24-hour period. Stool specimens from cases were tested for rotavirus using a commercially available assay.

RESULTS

From June 2009 to May 2011, rotavirus was detected in 3985 (36%) of 10,953 children hospitalized for gastroenteritis, with detection rates ranging from 25% to 48% at the 8 hospitals. Approximately 61% of the rotavirus hospitalizations occurred before 1 year of age and most (91%) occurred before 2 years of age. Rotavirus was detected year-round in Sudan with peaks during March to May and November to December. Applying rotavirus prevalence to national estimates of diarrhea events, we calculated 9800 deaths, 22,800 hospitalizations and 55,400 outpatient visits related to rotavirus per year among children <5 years of age in Sudan.

CONCLUSIONS

The high burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan indicates that the recently implemented vaccination program should substantially improve child health in Sudan. This nationwide rotavirus surveillance system will be an important platform for assessing the benefits and value of rotavirus vaccine in a developing country setting.

High temperature as a risk factor for infectious diarrhea in Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND

Recent studies indicate that ambient temperature could be a risk factor for infectious diarrhea, but evidence for such a relation is limited in China.

METHODS

We investigated the short-term association between daily temperature and physician-diagnosed infectious diarrhea during 2008-2010 in Shanghai, China. We adopted a time-series approach to analyze the data and a quasi-Poisson regression model with a natural spline-smoothing function to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends, as well as other time-varying covariates.

RESULTS

There was a significant association between temperature and outpatient visits for diarrhea. A 1°C increase in the 6-day moving average of temperature was associated with a 2.68% (95% CI: 1.83%, 3.52%) increase in outpatient visits for diarrhea. We did not find a significant association between rainfall and infectious diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

High temperature might be a risk factor for infectious diarrhea in Shanghai. Public health programs should focus on preventing diarrhea related to high temperature among city residents.

Epidemiological changes in rotavirus gastroenteritis in children under 5 years of age after the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in Korea

Rotavirus gastroenteritis is the leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis in children worldwide and is associated with high hospitalization and mortality rates in children younger than 5 years of age. Vaccination is necessary to prevent rotavirus infection. Two live attenuated and orally administered rotavirus vaccines became commercially available in Korea. The aim of this study is to describe epidemiological changes in rotavirus gastroenteritis after the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in Korea. The medical records of 11,199 children younger than 5 years of age and hospitalized for acute gastroenteritis from August 2007 to July 2010 in eight Korean hospitals were reviewed. Rotavirus was detected in stool samples obtained from 2,959 children (26.42 %). The authors evaluated the percentage of rotavirus gastroenteritis among all acute gastroenteritis hospitalizations in eight hospitals located in different geographical areas and analyzed epidemiological changes in rotavirus gastroenteritis according to age, geographical area, and season. According to the findings, the percentage of rotavirus gastroenteritis showed a decrease in children eligible for vaccination during the study period. After introduction of the vaccine, reduced rates of rotavirus detection were observed in all of the geographical areas, and the greatest reduction was observed in Seoul. In Seoul, there was a marked delay of the rotavirus season.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiologic changes in Korea after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine are consistent with changes observed in other countries.

Global seasonality of rotavirus disease

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before the introduction of widespread vaccination.

METHODS

We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus.

RESULTS

Among a total of 99 studies representing all 6 geographic regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high-income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P = 0.001) than geographic location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographic location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely.

CONCLUSION

While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease.

Natural persistence of food- and waterborne viruses

This chapter summarises data on the persistence of food-and waterborne viruses in the natural environment and discusses the different factors which can affect this persistence. Conventional and alternative methods by which persistence can be studied are described, and the natural factors influencing virus persistence outside the host organism are discussed. Available data concerning virus persistence in water, soil, on surfaces and in food products are reviewed.

Temperature and humidity influences on inactivation kinetics of enteric viruses on surfaces

Norovirus (NoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) are pathogenic enteric viruses responsible for public health concerns worldwide. The viral transmission occurs through fecally contaminated food, water, fomites, or direct contact. However, the difficulty in cultivating these viruses makes it a challenge to characterize the resistance to various environmental stresses. In this study, we characterized the inactivation rates of murine norovirus (MNV), MS2, and HAV on either lacquer coating rubber tree wood or stainless steel under different temperature and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The viruses were analyzed at temperatures of 15 °C, 25 °C, 32 °C, and 40 °C and at RHs of 30%, 50%, and 70% for 30 days. Overall, they survived significantly longer on wood than on steel at lower temperature (P < 0.05). The inactivation rate of MS2 and MNV increased at higher RH levels, whereas HAV survived the best at a medium RH level (50%). The effect of RH was significant only for MS2 (P < 0.05). MS2 persisted longest under all of the environmental conditions examined. Both a linear and a nonlinear Weibull model were used to describe the viral inactivation data in this study. The data produced a better fit to the survival curves that were predicted by the Weibull model.

Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on rotavirus infections in Kolkata, India

Rotavirus is a common viral cause of severe diarrhoea. For the underlying cause of rotavirus seasonality, the meteorological factor has been suspected, whereas quantitative correlation between seasonality and meteorological factor has not been fully investigated. In this study, we investigated the correlation of temporal patterns of the isolation rate of rotavirus with meteorological condition (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall) in Kolkata, India. We used time-series analysis combined with spectral analysis and least squares method. A 1-year cycle explained underlying variations of rotavirus and meteorological data. The 1-year cycle for rotavirus data was correlated with an opposite phase to that for meteorological data. Relatively high temperature could be associated with a low value of isolation rate of rotavirus in the monsoon season. Quantifying a correlation of rotavirus infections with meteorological conditions might prove useful in predicting rotavirus epidemics and health services could plan accordingly.

Analysis of the effects of essential oils on airborne bacteria in a customized bio-clean room

Essential oils have a sedative effect on stress, and are also known to have antibiotic and anti-carcinogenic effects. These compounds have long been used as natural microbial agents, and have recently been added to a number of pharmaceutical, food and cosmetic products. Controlling the exposure to allergens and pathogens are important factors for the treatment of allergy, and potentially reducing the risk of sensitization and infection. Low humidity, at levels under 35%, may affect human comfort and health during the winter. Patients and other individuals require optimal humidification to maintain a moisturized respiratory tract necessary for protecting against bacterial infection. We designed an analytical system to examine the effects of aromatherapeutic essential oils on airborne bacteria. The antibacterial activities of essential oils were assayed using agar plate air-sampling methods. A bacterial suspension was sprayed into a bio-clean room through the upper holes using a spray gun. Free-floating airborne bacteria were collected from the bio-clean room (blank) in blood agar plates for 10 sec using an air sampler. Three different concentrations of essential oils (0.0005, 0.005 and 0.05 ppm) were then sprayed into the bio-clean room for 5 min. Free-floating airborne bacteria were collected every 10 min for 10 sec each. Treatment with 0.0005 ppm essential oils inhibited the growth of colonies; this effect appeared to persist after 60 min. Decreased bacterial colony growth was more apparent in the presence of 0.005 ppm and 0.05 ppm essential oils than 0.0005 ppm. These effects were observed after 60 min compared to the control (distilled water). These results indicate that essential oils are able to inhibit the growth of airborne bacteria.

Minimum Infective Dose of the Major Human Respiratory and Enteric Viruses Transmitted Through Food and the Environment

Viruses are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. Determining the minimum dose of virus particles that can initiate infection, termed the minimum infective dose (MID), is important for the development of risk assessment models in the fields of food and water treatment and the implementation of appropriate infection control strategies in healthcare settings. Both respiratory and enteric viruses can be shed at high titers from infected individuals even when the infection is asymptomatic. Presence of pre-existing antibodies has been shown to affect the infectious dose and to be protective against reinfection for many, but not all viruses. Most respiratory viruses appear to be as infective in humans as in tissue culture. Doses of <1 TCID₅₀ of influenza virus, rhinovirus, and adenovirus were reported to infect 50% of the tested population. Similarly, low doses of the enteric viruses, norovirus, rotavirus, echovirus, poliovirus, and hepatitis A virus, caused infection in at least some of the volunteers tested. A number of factors may influence viruses' infectivity in experimentally infected human volunteers. These include host and pathogen factors as well as the experimental methodology. As a result, the reported infective doses of human viruses have to be interpreted with caution.

Issues Concerning Survival of Viruses on Surfaces

Viruses are the causative agents of an estimated 60% of human infections worldwide. The most common viral illnesses are produced by enteric and respiratory viruses. Transmission of these viruses from an infected person or animal to a new host can occur via several routes. Existing studies strongly suggest that contaminated fomites or surfaces play an important role in the spreading of viral diseases. The potential of viral spreading via contaminated surfaces depends particularly on the ability of the virus to maintain infectivity whilst it is in the environment. This is affected by a combination of biological, physical and chemical factors. This review summarises current knowledge about the influence of environmental factors on the survival and spread of viruses via contaminated surfaces.

Temperature-dependent transmission of rotavirus in Great Britain and The Netherlands

In Europe, rotavirus gastroenteritis peaks in late winter or early spring suggesting a role for weather factors in transmission of the virus. In this study, multivariate regression models adapted for time-series data were used to investigate effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on reported rotavirus infections and the infection-rate parameter, a derived measure of infection transmission that takes into account population immunity, in England, Wales, Scotland and The Netherlands. Delayed effects of weather were investigated by introducing lagged weather terms into the model. Meta-regression was used to pool together country-specific estimates. There was a 13 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI), 11-15%) decrease in reported infections per 1 degrees C increase in temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C and a 4 per cent (95% CI, 3-5%) decrease in the infection-rate parameter per 1 degrees C increase in temperature across the whole temperature range. The effect of temperature was immediate for the infection-rate parameter but delayed by up to four weeks for reported infections. There was no overall effect of humidity or rainfall. There is a direct and simple relationship between cold weather and rotavirus transmission in Great Britain and The Netherlands. The more complex and delayed temperature effect on disease incidence is likely to be mediated through the effects of weather on transmission.

Impact of physicochemical parameters on in vitro assembly and disassembly kinetics of recombinant triple-layered rotavirus-like particles

Virus-like particles constitute potentially relevant vaccine candidates. Nevertheless, their behavior in vitro and assembly process needs to be understood in order to improve their yield and quality. In this study we aimed at addressing these issues and for that purpose triple- and double-layered rotavirus-like particles (TLP 2/6/7 and DLP 2/6, respectively) size and zeta potential were measured using dynamic light scattering at different physicochemical conditions, namely pH, ionic strength, and temperature. Both TLP and DLP were stable within a pH range of 3-7 and at 5-25 degrees C. Aggregation occurred at 35-45 degrees C and their disassembly became evident at 65 degrees C. The isoelectric points of TLP and DLP were 3.0 and 3.8, respectively. In vitro kinetics of TLP disassembly was monitored. Ionic strength, temperature, and the chelating agent employed determined disassembly kinetics. Glycerol (10%) stabilized TLP by preventing its disassembly. Disassembled TLP was able to reassemble by dialysis at high calcium conditions. VP7 monomers were added to DLP in the presence of calcium to follow in vitro TLP assembly kinetics; its assembly rate being mostly affected by pH. Finally, DLP and TLP were found to coexist under certain conditions as determined from all reaction products analyzed by capillary electrophoresis. Overall, these results contribute to the design of new strategies for the improvement of TLP yield and quality by reducing the VP7 detachment from TLP.

Seasonality of rotavirus disease in the tropics: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To date little conclusive evidence exists on the seasonality of rotavirus incidence in the tropics. We present a systematic review and meta-analysis on the seasonal epidemiology of rotavirus in the tropics, including 26 studies reporting continuous monthly rotavirus incidence for which corresponding climatological data was available.

METHODS

Using linear regression models that account for serial correlation between months, monthly rotavirus incidence was significantly negatively correlated with temperature, rainfall and relative humidity in 65%, 55% and 60% of studies, respectively. We carried out pooled analyses using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) that accounts for correlation from between-study variation and serial correlation between months within a given study.

RESULTS

For every 1 degrees C (1.8 degrees F) increase in mean temperature, 1 cm (0.39 in.) increase in mean monthly rainfall, and 1% increase in relative humidity (22%) this analysis showed reductions in rotavirus incidence of 10% (95% CI: 6-13%), 1% (95% CI: 0-1%), and 3% (95% CI:0-5%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of the evidence, we conclude that rotavirus responds to changes in climate in the tropics, with the highest number of infections found at the colder and drier times of the year.

Inactivation of bacteria and viruses in human urine depending on temperature and dilution rate

Source separation and reuse of human urine can decrease the environmental pollution of recipient waters and reduce the need for artificial mineral fertilisers. However, the reuse of urine introduces another pathogen transmission route that needs to be managed. The inactivation of enteric pathogens and model organisms (Salmonella enterica subspecies 1 serovar Typhimurium (S. typhimurium), Enterococcus faecalis, bacteriophages S. typhimurium 28B, MS2 and Phi x 174) by urine storage was studied at dilutions (urine:water) 1:0, 1:1 and 1:3 at temperatures 4, 14, 24 and 34 degrees C. A threshold concentration of ammonia was found at approximately 40 mM NH(3) (e.g. 2.1 g NH(3)-NL(-1) and pH 8.9 at 24 degrees C), below which all studied organisms, except Salmonella, persisted considerably longer irrespective of treatment temperature, showing that urine dilution rate is of great importance for pathogen inactivation. For Salmonella spp. no threshold level was found in these studies (15 mM NH(3) lowest concentration studied). At temperatures below 20 degrees C, bacteriophage reduction was very slow. Therefore, urine stored at temperatures below 20 degrees C carries a high risk of containing viable viruses. The study indicated that the current recommended storage time for urine of 6 months at 20 degrees C or higher is safe for unrestricted use and could probably be shortened, especially for undiluted urine.

Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis

Attempts to explain the clear seasonality of rotavirus infections have been made by relating disease incidence to climate factors; however, few studies have disentangled the effects of weather from other factors that might cause seasonality. We investigated the relationships between hospital visits for rotavirus diarrhoea and temperature, humidity and river level, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using time-series analysis adjusting for other confounding seasonal factors. There was strong evidence for an increase in rotavirus diarrhoea at high temperatures, by 40.2% for each 1 degrees C increase above a threshold (29 degrees C). Relative humidity had a linear inverse relationship with the number of cases of rotavirus diarrhoea. River level, above a threshold (4.8 m), was associated with an increase in cases of rotavirus diarrhoea, by 5.5% per 10-cm river-level rise. Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with high temperature, low humidity and high river-level increase the incidence of rotavirus diarrhoea in Dhaka.

Climatic factors associated with hospitalizations for rotavirus diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age

This study compares the seasonality of rotavirus diarrhoeal hospital admissions and its relationship to climatic factors across three Australian cities. Weekly admission of rotavirus diarrhoea (1993-2003) in children aged <5 years and weekly average temperature and relative humidity for each city were modelled using a log-linear model with a cubic trend and season. Interactions were included to test for differences in the effect of temperature and humidity between seasons and between cities. Admissions of rotavirus diarrhoea peaked in winter and spring and were lowest in summer. Higher temperature and humidity in the previous week were associated with a decrease in rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in three cities. The effects of both temperature and humidity on rotavirus admissions in Brisbane differed across seasons. Strategies to combat outbreaks of rotavirus diarrhoea should take climatic factors and seasonal effects into consideration to plan for the excess seasonal hospital admissions.