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Visvanathan G, Patil K, Suryawanshi Y, Meshram V, Jadhav S. Mitigating urban heat island and enhancing indoor thermal comfort using terrace garden. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9697. [PMID: 38678098 PMCID: PMC11055897 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60546-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 04/29/2024] Open
Abstract
The United Nations advocates for sustainable urban planning and design, emphasizing green infrastructure initiatives to mitigate urban heat island effects and enhance the resilience and livability of cities globally. To address urban heat challenges, a study was conducted in Chennai, India, from April to June 2023. The study focused on assessing temperature dynamics on a building's terrace by comparing a well-maintained garden area with an exposed region. Temperature and humidity sensors were deployed in both the garden and exposed areas of the terrace, as well as within rooms beneath it, to monitor hourly temperature fluctuations. The findings indicate a significant reduction in internal room temperatures in areas with rooftop gardens, ranging from 4 to 11 °C, depending on the time of year and sun's position, compared to rooms with fully exposed roof configurations. Additionally, simulation studies were performed to validate these findings, suggesting that optimizing the distribution of soil beds and plant density across the roof could yield an additional temperature reduction of 3-4 °C, resulting in an overall difference of up to 14-15 °C. The study highlights the efficacy of rooftop gardens in providing cooling effects during daylight hours and maintaining temperature parity post-sunset. Through analysis of sensor data, the research elucidates the intricate relationship between green infrastructure and thermal comfort, offering insights for energy-efficient building design and resilient urban planning. The findings underscore the potential of rooftop gardens in fostering a more comfortable, energy-efficient, and sustainable urban living environment.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Vishal Meshram
- Vishwakarma Institute of Information Technology, Pune, 411048, India
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Zhang X, Xiao X, Wang F, Brasseur G, Chen S, Wang J, Gao M. Observed sensitivities of PM 2.5 and O 3 extremes to meteorological conditions in China and implications for the future. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 168:107428. [PMID: 35985105 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Revised: 06/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Frequent extreme air pollution episodes in China accompanied with high concentrations of particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are partly supported by meteorological conditions. However, the relationships between meteorological variables and pollution extremes can be poorly estimated solely based on mean pollutant level. In this study, we use quantile regression to investigate meteorological sensitivities of PM2.5 and O3 extremes, benefiting from nationwide observations of air pollutants over 2013-2019 in China. Results show that surface winds and humidity are identified as key drivers for high PM2.5 events during both summer and winter, with greater sensitivities at higher percentiles. Higher humidity favors the hydroscopic growth of particles during winter, but it tends to decrease PM2.5 through wet scavenging during summer. Surface temperature play dominant role in summer O3 extremes, especially in VOC-limited regime, followed by surface winds and radiation. Sensitivities of O3 to meteorological conditions are relatively unchanging across percentiles. Under the fossil-fueled development pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, meteorological conditions are projected to favor winter PM2.5 extremes in North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Sichuan Basin (SCB), mainly due to enhanced surface specific humidity. Summer O3 extremes are likely to occur more frequently in the NCP and YRD, associated with warmer temperature and stronger solar radiation. Besides, meteorological conditions over a relatively longer period play a more important role in the formation of pollution extremes. These results improve our understanding of the relationships between extreme PM2.5 and O3 pollution and meteorology, and can be used as a valuable reference of model predicted air pollution extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaorui Zhang
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Xiang Xiao
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Fan Wang
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Guy Brasseur
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observation & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Siyu Chen
- Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Jing Wang
- Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology, and Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science, Tianjin, China
| | - Meng Gao
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China; Hong Kong Branch of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Hong Kong, China.
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3
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Baccour S, Ward FA, Albiac J. Climate adaptation guidance: New roles for hydroeconomic analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 835:155518. [PMID: 35483468 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate water stress internationally challenges the goal of achieving food, energy, and water security. This challenge is elevated by population and income growth. Increased climate water stress levels reduce water supplies in many river basins and elevate competition for water among sectors. Organized information is needed to guide river basin managers and stakeholders who must plan for a changing climate through innovative water allocation policies, trade-off analysis, vulnerability assessment, capacity adaptation, and infrastructure planning. Several hydroeconomic models have been developed and applied assessing water use in different sectors, counties, cultures, and time periods. However, none to date has presented an optimization framework by which historical water use and economic benefit patterns can be replicated while presenting capacity to adapt to future climate water stresses to inform the design of policies not yet been implemented. This paper's unique contribution is to address this gap by designing and presenting results of a hydroeconomic model for which optimized base conditions exactly match observed data water use and economic welfare for several urban and agricultural uses at several locations in a large European river basin for which water use supports a population of more than 3.2 million. We develop a state-of-the arts empirical dynamic hydroeconomic optimization model to discover land and water use patterns that optimize sustained farm and city income under various levels of climate-water stress. Findings using innovative model calibration methods allow for the discovery of efficient water allocation plans as well as providing insight into marginal behavioral responses to climate water stress and water policies. Results identify that water trade policy under climate water stress provides more economically efficient water use patterns, reallocating water from lower valued uses to higher valued uses such as urban water. The Ebro River Basin in Spain is used as an example to investigate water use adaptation patterns under various levels of climate water stress. That basin's issues and challenges can be of relevance to other river basins internationally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Safa Baccour
- Department of Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, CITA-Government of Aragon, 50059 Saragossa, Spain
| | - Frank A Ward
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA.
| | - José Albiac
- Department of Economic Analysis, University of Zaragoza, 50005 Saragossa, Spain.
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4
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Tanner-McAllister SL, Rhodes J, Hockings M. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2017; 204:510-518. [PMID: 28934674 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.09.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2017] [Revised: 09/10/2017] [Accepted: 09/12/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherri L Tanner-McAllister
- University of Queensland, School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia; Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service, Department of National Parks, Sport and Recreation, PO Box 15187, City East, QLD 4002, Australia.
| | - Jonathan Rhodes
- University of Queensland, School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Marc Hockings
- University of Queensland, School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
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5
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West JM, Courtney CA, Hamilton AT, Parker BA, Julius SH, Hoffman J, Koltes KH, MacGowan P. Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2017; 59:102-117. [PMID: 27734086 PMCID: PMC5219003 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-016-0774-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2016] [Accepted: 09/29/2016] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan M West
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave, NW (8601P), Washington, DC, 20460, USA.
| | | | - Anna T Hamilton
- Tetra Tech, Inc., Center for Ecological Sciences, 502 W. Cordova Road, Suite C, Santa Fe, NM, 87505, USA
| | - Britt A Parker
- The Baldwin Group, Inc., NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program, SSMC4, N/OCM6, Rm 10329, 1305 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA
| | - Susan H Julius
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave, NW (8601P), Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Jennie Hoffman
- Private Consultant, 4755 Northeast Lambs Lane, Poulsbo, WA, 98370, USA
| | - Karen H Koltes
- U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Insular Affairs, MS 2429, 1849 C St. NW, Washington, DC, 20240, USA
| | - Petra MacGowan
- The Nature Conservancy, 74 Wall Street, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
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6
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Nover DM, Witt JW, Butcher JB, Johnson TE, Weaver CP. The effects of downscaling method on the variability of simulated watershed response to climate change in five U.S. basins. EARTH INTERACTIONS 2016; 20:1-27. [PMID: 30026656 PMCID: PMC6050014 DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-15-0024.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.
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Affiliation(s)
- D M Nover
- AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Agency
for International Development, Ghana, West Africa
| | - J W Witt
- ORISE Fellow: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC
| | - J B Butcher
- Tetra Tech, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - T E Johnson
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Research and Development, Washington, DC
| | - C P Weaver
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC
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7
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Johnson T, Butcher J, Deb D, Faizullabhoy M, Hummel P, Kittle J, McGinnis S, Mearns LO, Nover D, Parker A, Sarkar S, Srinivasan R, Tuppad P, Warren M, Weaver C, Witt J. MODELING STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN 20 U.S. WATERSHEDS. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 2015; 51:1321-1341. [PMID: 36203498 PMCID: PMC9534033 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Johnson
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, MC8601P, Washington, D.C. 20460
| | - J Butcher
- Tetra Tech, Inc., Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709
| | - D Deb
- Spatial Sciences Laboratory, Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77845
| | | | - P Hummel
- AQUA TERRA Consultants, Decatur, Georgia 30030
| | - J Kittle
- AQUA TERRA Consultants, Decatur, Georgia 30030
| | - S McGinnis
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307
| | - L O Mearns
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307
| | - D Nover
- Agency for International Development, West African Regional Office, Accra, 09817 Ghana
| | - A Parker
- Tetra Tech, Inc., Fairfax, Virginia 22030
| | - S Sarkar
- Tetra Tech, Inc., Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709
| | - R Srinivasan
- Spatial Sciences Laboratory, Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77845
| | - P Tuppad
- Spatial Sciences Laboratory, Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77845
| | - M Warren
- USGS CIDA, Middleton, Wisconsin 53562
| | - C Weaver
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, MC8601P, Washington, D.C. 20460
| | - J Witt
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, MC8601P, Washington, D.C. 20460
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8
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Reyjol Y, Argillier C, Bonne W, Borja A, Buijse AD, Cardoso AC, Daufresne M, Kernan M, Ferreira MT, Poikane S, Prat N, Solheim AL, Stroffek S, Usseglio-Polatera P, Villeneuve B, van de Bund W. Assessing the ecological status in the context of the European Water Framework Directive: where do we go now? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2014; 497-498:332-344. [PMID: 25146904 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2014] [Revised: 07/30/2014] [Accepted: 07/30/2014] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is now well established as the key management imperative in river basins across Europe. However, there remain significant concerns with the way WFD is implemented and there is now a need for water managers and scientists to communicate better in order to find solutions to these concerns. To address this, a Science-Policy Interface (SPI) activity was launched in 2010 led by Directorate-General for Research and Innovation and Onema (the French national agency for water and aquatic ecosystems), which provided an interactive forum to connect scientists and WFD end-users. One major aim of the SPI activity was to establish a list of the most crucial research and development needs for enhancing WFD implementation. This paper synthesises the recommendations from this event highlighting 10 priority issues relating to ecological status. For lakes, temporary streams and transitional and coastal waters, WFD implementation still suffers from a lack of WFD-compliant bioassessment methods. For rivers, special attention is required to assess the ecological impacts of hydromorphological alterations on biological communities, notably those affecting river continuity and riparian covering. Spatial extrapolation tools are needed in order to evaluate ecological status for water bodies for which no data are available. The need for more functional bioassessment tools as complements to usual WFD-compliant tools, and to connect clearly good ecological state, biodiversity and ecosystem services when implementing WFD were also identified as crucial issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yorick Reyjol
- Onema (Office National de l'Eau et des Milieux Aquatiques), Direction de l'Action Scientifique et Technique (DAST), 5 square Felix Nadar, 94300 Vincennes, France.
| | - Christine Argillier
- Irstea, UR HYAX, Pôle d'études et recherches en Hydroécologie des plans d'eau Onema/Irstea, 3275 route de Cézanne, CS 40061, 13182 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 5, France
| | - Wendy Bonne
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Water Resources Unit, via E. Fermi 2749, T.P. 460, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
| | - Angel Borja
- AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea s/n, 20110 Pasaia, Spain
| | - Anthonie D Buijse
- DELTARES, Department of Freshwater Ecology and Water Quality, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Ana Cristina Cardoso
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Water Resources Unit, via E. Fermi 2749, T.P. 460, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
| | - Martin Daufresne
- Irstea, UR HYAX, Pôle d'études et recherches en Hydroécologie des plans d'eau Onema/Irstea, 3275 route de Cézanne, CS 40061, 13182 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 5, France
| | - Martin Kernan
- Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Maria Teresa Ferreira
- Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Landscape, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Sandra Poikane
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Water Resources Unit, via E. Fermi 2749, T.P. 460, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
| | - Narcís Prat
- Grup de Recerca F.E.M. (Freshwater Ecology and Management), Dept. Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anne-Lyche Solheim
- Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway
| | - Stéphane Stroffek
- Agence de l'eau Rhône, Méditerranée Corse, 2-4 allée de Lodz, 69363 Lyon, France
| | - Philippe Usseglio-Polatera
- Université de Lorraine, Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), CNRS UMR 7360, rue du Général Delestraint, 57070 Metz, France
| | - Bertrand Villeneuve
- UR MALY, Pôle d'études et recherches en Hydroécologie des cours d'eau, Irstea centre de Lyon-Villeurbanne, 5 rue de la Doua, CS70077, 69626 Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | - Wouter van de Bund
- European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Water Resources Unit, via E. Fermi 2749, T.P. 460, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
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Squires AJ, Dubé MG. Development of an effects-based approach for watershed scale aquatic cumulative effects assessment. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2013; 9:380-91. [PMID: 22907931 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.1352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2012] [Revised: 04/02/2012] [Accepted: 07/02/2012] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Environmental impacts can manifest themselves in a cumulative manner over very large spatial (watershed) and temporal (decadal) scales. In response to these challenges, scientists have been developing methods that attempt to assess the complex interactions between our environment and the current and future demands of society. This article proposes a framework for quantifying cumulative changes in water quality and quantity and demonstrates its implementation in an entire watershed, the Athabasca River Basin in Alberta, Canada. The Athabasca River Basin is an ideal watershed for this study as it has undergone significant increase in urban and industrial developments that have the potential to impact this aquatic ecosystem. This framework addresses the problems of setting a historical baseline and comparing it to the current state in a quantitative way. This framework also creates the potential for predicting future impacts by creating thresholds specific to the study area. The outcome of this framework is the identification and quantification of specific stressors (dissolved Na, chloride, and sulfate) showing significant change across the entire Athabasca River Basin, as well as the development of thresholds for these parameters. This information can be used in future assessments of proposed development and possible mitigation in the basin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison J Squires
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
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10
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Joyner TA, Rohli RV. Atmospheric influences on water quality: a simulation of nutrient loading for the Pearl River Basin, USA. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2013; 185:3467-3476. [PMID: 22972315 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-012-2803-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2011] [Accepted: 07/23/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Knowledge of water quality conditions is essential in assessing the health of riverine ecosystems. The goal of this study is to determine the degree to which water quality variables are related to precipitation and air temperature conditions for a segment of the Pearl River Basin near Bogalusa, LA, USA. The AQUATOX ecological fate simulation model is used to estimate daily total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen concentrations over a 2-year period. Daily modeled output for each variable was calibrated against reliably measured data to assess the accuracy. Observed data were plotted against simulated data for controlled and perturbed models for validation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between the water quality and meteorological variables. Results suggest that daily dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to concurrent daily mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.679 (p < 0.01), and monthly dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to monthly mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.567 (p < 0.01). Total mean monthly phosphorus concentration is significantly positively related to the previous month's precipitation with a total explained variance of 0.302 (p < 0.01). These relationships suggest that atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on water quality in the Pearl Basin. Therefore, environmental planners should expect that future climatic changes are likely to alter water quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy Andrew Joyner
- Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, 227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
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11
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Post ES, Grambsch A, Weaver C, Morefield P, Huang J, Leung LY, Nolte CG, Adams P, Liang XZ, Zhu JH, Mahoney H. Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2012; 120:1559-64. [PMID: 22796531 PMCID: PMC3556604 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1104271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2011] [Accepted: 07/12/2012] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. OBJECTIVES Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. METHODS Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O(3))-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O(3). RESULTS Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O(3)-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O(3)-related human health effects resulting from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen S Post
- Environment and Resources Division, Abt Associates Inc., Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA
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Cross MS, Zavaleta ES, Bachelet D, Brooks ML, Enquist CAF, Fleishman E, Graumlich LJ, Groves CR, Hannah L, Hansen L, Hayward G, Koopman M, Lawler JJ, Malcolm J, Nordgren J, Petersen B, Rowland EL, Scott D, Shafer SL, Shaw MR, Tabor GM. The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2012; 50:341-51. [PMID: 22773068 PMCID: PMC3410031 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-012-9893-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2010] [Accepted: 05/29/2012] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)--water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Molly S Cross
- Wildlife Conservation Society, 301 N. Willson Avenue, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA.
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Taner MÜ, Carleton JN, Wellman M. Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake. Ecol Modell 2011. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Lyons J, Stewart JS, Mitro M. Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA. JOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY 2010; 77:1867-1898. [PMID: 21078096 DOI: 10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02763.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Lyons
- Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 2801 Progress Road, Madison, WI 53716, USA.
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Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy. SUSTAINABILITY 2010. [DOI: 10.3390/su2082449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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West JM, Julius SH, Kareiva P, Enquist C, Lawler JJ, Petersen B, Johnson AE, Shaw MR. U.S. natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2009; 44:1001-21. [PMID: 19636606 PMCID: PMC2791483 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-009-9345-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2008] [Revised: 06/08/2009] [Accepted: 06/28/2009] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices--it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience--this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between "managing for resilience" and "managing for change."
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan M West
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
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