Decision curve analysis in the evaluation of radiology research

Case-by-case combination of the prostate imaging reporting and data system version 2.1 with the Likert score to reduce the false-positives of prostate MRI: a proof-of-concept study

OBJECTIVES

To retrospectively investigate whether a case-by-case combination of the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2.1 (PI-RADS) with the Likert score improves the diagnostic performance of mpMRI for clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa), especially by reducing false-positives.

METHODS

One hundred men received mpMRI between January 2020 and April 2021, followed by prostate biopsy. Reader 1 (R1) and reader 2 (R2) (experience of > 3000 and < 200 mpMRI readings) independently reviewed mpMRIs with the PI-RADS version 2.1. After unveiling clinical information, they were free to add (or not) a Likert score to upgrade or downgrade or reinforce the level of suspicion of the PI-RADS category attributed to the index lesion or, rather, identify a new index lesion. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of R1/R2 in detecting csPCa when biopsying PI-RADS ≥ 3 index-lesions (strategy 1) versus PI-RADS ≥ 3 or Likert ≥ 3 index-lesions (strategy 2), with decision curve analysis to assess the net benefit. In strategy 2, the Likert score was considered dominant in determining biopsy decisions.

RESULTS

csPCa prevalence was 38%. R1/R2 used combined PI-RADS and Likert categorization in 28%/18% of examinations relying mainly on clinical features such as prostate specific antigen level and digital rectal examination than imaging findings. The specificity/positive predictive values were 66.1/63.1% for R1 (95%CI 52.9-77.6/54.5-70.9) and 50.0/51.6% (95%CI 37.0-63.0/35.5-72.4%) for R2 in the case of PI-RADS-based readings, and 74.2/69.2% for R1 (95%CI 61.5-84.5/59.4-77.5%) and 56.6/54.2% (95%CI 43.3-69.0/37.1-76.6%) for R2 in the case of combined PI-RADS/Likert readings. Sensitivity/negative predictive values were unaffected. Strategy 2 achieved greater net benefit as a trigger of biopsy for R1 only.

CONCLUSION

Case-by-case combination of the PI-RADS version 2.1 with Likert score translated into a mild but measurable impact in reducing the false-positives of PI-RADS categorization, though greater net benefit in reducing unnecessary biopsies was found in the experienced reader only.

Multi-modality radiomics model predicts axillary lymph node metastasis of breast cancer using MRI and mammography

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a multi-modality model to predict axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis by combining clinical predictors with radiomic features from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and mammography (MMG) in breast cancer. This model might potentially eliminate unnecessary axillary surgery in cases without ALN metastasis, thereby minimizing surgery-related complications.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 485 breast cancer patients from two hospitals and extracted radiomics features from tumor and lymph node regions on MRI and MMG images. After feature selection, three random forest models were built using the retained features, respectively. Significant clinical factors were integrated with these radiomics models to construct a multi-modality model. The multi-modality model was compared to radiologists' diagnoses on axillary ultrasound and MRI. It was also used to assist radiologists in making a secondary diagnosis on MRI.

RESULTS

The multi-modality model showed superior performance with AUCs of 0.964 in the training cohort, 0.916 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.892 in the external validation cohort. It surpassed single-modality models and radiologists' ALN diagnosis on MRI and axillary ultrasound in all validation cohorts. Additionally, the multi-modality model improved radiologists' MRI-based ALN diagnostic ability, increasing the average accuracy from 70.70 to 78.16% for radiologist A and from 75.42 to 81.38% for radiologist B.

CONCLUSION

The multi-modality model can predict ALN metastasis of breast cancer accurately. Moreover, the artificial intelligence (AI) model also assisted the radiologists to improve their diagnostic ability on MRI.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The multi-modality model based on both MRI and mammography images allows preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients. With the assistance of the model, the diagnostic efficacy of radiologists can be further improved.

KEY POINTS

• We developed a novel multi-modality model that combines MRI and mammography radiomics with clinical factors to accurately predict axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis, which has not been previously reported. • Our multi-modality model outperformed both the radiologists' ALN diagnosis based on MRI and axillary ultrasound, as well as single-modality radiomics models based on MRI or mammography. • The multi-modality model can serve as a potential decision support tool to improve the radiologists' ALN diagnosis on MRI.

BTK Expression Level Prediction and the High-Grade Glioma Prognosis Using Radiomic Machine Learning Models

We aimed to study whether the Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) expression is correlated with the prognosis of patients with high-grade gliomas (HGGs) and predict its expression level prior to surgery, by constructing radiomic models. Clinical and gene expression data of 310 patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were included for gene-based prognostic analysis. Among them, contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging (T1WI + C) from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) with genomic data was selected from 82 patients for radiomic models, including support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models. Furthermore, the nomogram incorporating radiomic signatures was constructed to evaluate its clinical efficacy. BTK was identified as an independent risk factor for HGGs through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Three radiomic features were selected to construct the SVM and LR models, and the validation set showed area under curve (AUCs) values of 0.711 (95% CI, 0.598-0.824) and 0.736 (95% CI, 0.627-0.844), respectively. The median survival times of the high Rad_score and low-Rad_score groups based on LR model were 15.53 and 23.03 months, respectively. In addition, the total risk score of each patient was used to construct a predictive nomogram, and the AUCs calculated from the corresponding time-dependent ROC curves were 0.533, 0.659, and 0.767 for 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. BTK is an independent risk factor associated with poor prognosis in patients, and the radiomic model constructed in this study can effectively and non-invasively predict preoperative BTK expression levels and patient prognosis based on T1WI + C.

Determination of p53abn endometrial cancer: a multitask analysis using radiological-clinical nomogram on MRI

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to differentiate endometrial cancer (EC) between TP53mutation (P53abn) and Non-P53abn subtypes using radiological-clinical nomogram on EC body volume MRI.

METHODS

We retrospectively recruited 227 patients with pathologically proven EC from our institution. All these patients have undergone molecular pathology diagnosis based on the Cancer Genome Atlas. Clinical characteristics and histological diagnosis were recorded from the hospital information system. Radiomics features were extracted from online Pyradiomics processors. The diagnostic performance across different acquisition protocols was calculated and compared. The radiological-clinical nomogram was established to determine the nonendometrioid, high-risk, and P53abn EC group.

RESULTS

The best MRI sequence for differentiation P53abn from the non-P53abn group was contrast-enhanced T1WI (test AUC: 0.8). The best MRI sequence both for differentiation endometrioid cancer from nonendometrioid cancer and high-risk from low- and intermediate-risk groups was apparent diffusion coefficient map (test AUC: 0.665 and 0.690). For all 3 tasks, the combined model incorporating all the best discriminative features from each sequence yielded the best performance. The combined model achieved an AUC of 0.845 in the testing cohorts for P53abn cancer identification. The MR-based radiomics diagnostic model performed better than the clinical-based model in determining P53abn EC (AUC: 0.834 vs 0.682).

CONCLUSION

In the present study, the diagnostic model based on the combination of both radiomics and clinical features yielded a higher performance in differentiating nonendometrioid and P53abn cancer from other EC molecular subgroups, which might help design a tailed treatment, especially for patients with high-risk EC.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

(1) The contrast-enhanced T1WI was the best MRI sequence for differentiation P53abn from the non-P53abn group (test AUC: 0.8). (2) The radiomics-based diagnostic model performed better than the clinical-based model in determining P53abn EC (AUC: 0.834 vs 0.682). (3) The proposed model derived from multi-parametric MRI images achieved a higher accuracy in P53abn EC identification (AUC: 0.845).

Radiomics-based discrimination of coronary chronic total occlusion and subtotal occlusion on coronary computed tomography angiography

OBJECTIVES

Differentiating chronic total occlusion (CTO) from subtotal occlusion (SO) is often difficult to make from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We developed a CCTA-based radiomics model to differentiate CTO and SO.

METHODS

A total of 66 patients with SO underwent CCTA before invasive angiography and were matched to 66 patients with CTO. Comprehensive imaging analysis was conducted for all lesioned vessels, involving the automatic identification of the lumen within the occluded segment and extraction of 1,904 radiomics features. Radiomics models were then constructed to assess the discriminative value of these features in distinguishing CTO from SO. External validation of the model was performed using data from another medical center.

RESULTS

Compared to SO patients, CTO patients had more blunt stumps (internal: 53/66 (80.3%) vs. 39/66 (59.1%); external: 36/50 (72.0%) vs. 20/50 (40.0%), both p < 0.01), longer lesion length (internal: median length 15.4 mm[IQR: 10.4-22.3 mm] vs. 8.7 mm[IQR: 4.9-12.6 mm]; external:11.8 mm[IQR: 6.1-23.4 mm] vs. 6.2 mm[IQR: 3.5-9.1 mm]; both p < 0.001). Sixteen unique radiomics features were identified after the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. When added to the combined model including imaging features, radiomics features provided increased value for distinguishing CTO from SO (AUC, internal: 0.772 vs. 0.846; p = 0.023; external: 0.718 vs. 0.781, p = 0.146).

CONCLUSIONS

The occluded segment vessels of CTO and SO have different radiomics signatures. The combined application of radiomics features and imaging features based on CCTA extraction can enhance diagnostic confidence.

Can multi-modal radiomics using pretreatment ultrasound and tomosynthesis predict response to neoadjuvant systemic treatment in breast cancer?

OBJECTIVES

Response assessment to neoadjuvant systemic treatment (NAST) to guide individualized treatment in breast cancer is a clinical research priority. We aimed to develop an intelligent algorithm using multi-modal pretreatment ultrasound and tomosynthesis radiomics features in addition to clinical variables to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) prior to the initiation of therapy.

METHODS

We used retrospective data on patients who underwent ultrasound and tomosynthesis before starting NAST. We developed a support vector machine algorithm using pretreatment ultrasound and tomosynthesis radiomics features in addition to patient and tumor variables to predict pCR status (ypT0 and ypN0). Findings were compared to the histopathologic evaluation of the surgical specimen. The main outcome measures were area under the curve (AUC) and false-negative rate (FNR).

RESULTS

We included 720 patients, 504 in the development set and 216 in the validation set. Median age was 51.6 years and 33.6% (242 of 720) achieved pCR. The addition of radiomics features significantly improved the performance of the algorithm (AUC 0.72 to 0.81; p = 0.007). The FNR of the multi-modal radiomics and clinical algorithm was 6.7% (10 of 150 with missed residual cancer). Surface/volume ratio at tomosynthesis and peritumoral entropy characteristics at ultrasound were the most relevant radiomics. Hormonal receptors and HER-2 status were the most important clinical predictors.

CONCLUSION

A multi-modal machine learning algorithm with pretreatment clinical, ultrasound, and tomosynthesis radiomics features may aid in predicting residual cancer after NAST. Pending prospective validation, this may facilitate individually tailored NAST regimens.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Multi-modal radiomics using pretreatment ultrasound and tomosynthesis showed significant improvement in assessing response to NAST compared to an algorithm using clinical variables only. Further prospective validation of our findings seems warranted to enable individualized predictions of NAST outcomes.

KEY POINTS

• We proposed a multi-modal machine learning algorithm with pretreatment clinical, ultrasound, and tomosynthesis radiomics features to predict response to neoadjuvant breast cancer treatment. • Compared with the clinical algorithm, the AUC of this integrative algorithm is significantly higher. • Used prior to the initiative of therapy, our algorithm can identify patients who will experience pathologic complete response following neoadjuvant therapy with a high negative predictive value.

Risk stratification of prostate cancer with MRI and prostate-specific antigen density-based tool for personalized decision making

OBJECTIVES

MRI is now established for initial prostate cancer diagnosis; however, there is no standardized pathway to avoid unnecessary biopsy in low-risk patients. Our study aimed to test previously proposed MRI-focussed and risk-adapted biopsy decision models on a real-world dataset.

METHODS

Single-centre retrospective study performed on 2055 biopsy naïve patients undergoing MRI. Diagnostic pathways included "biopsy all", "MRI-focussed" and two risk-based MRI-directed pathways. Risk thresholds were based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density as low (<0.10 ng mL-2), intermediate (0.10-0.15 ng mL-2), high (0.15-0.20 ng mL-2), or very high-risk (>0.20 ng mL-2). The outcome measures included rates of biopsy avoidance, detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa), missed csPCa, and overdiagnosis of insignificant prostate cancer (iPCa).

RESULTS

Overall cancer rate was 39.9% (819/2055), with csPCa (Grade-Group ≥2) detection of 30.3% (623/2055). In men with a negative MRI (Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System, PI-RADS 1-2), the risk of cancer was 1.2%, 2.6%, 9.0%, and 12.9% in the low, intermediate, high, and very high groups, respectively; for PI-RADS score 3 lesions, the rates were 10.5%, 14.3%, 25.0%, and 33.3%, respectively. MRI-guided pathway and risk-based pathway with a low threshold missed only 1.6% csPCa with a biopsy-avoidance rate of 54.4%, and the risk-based pathway with a higher threshold avoided 62.9% (1292/2055) of biopsies with 2.9% (61/2055) missed csPCa detection. Decision curve analysis found that the "risk-based low threshold" pathway has the highest net benefit for probability thresholds between 3.6% and 13.9%.

CONCLUSION

Combined MRI and PSA-density risk-based pathways can be a helpful decision-making tool enabling high csPCa detection rates with the benefit of biopsy avoidance and reduced iPCa detection.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This real-world dataset from a large UK-based cohort confirms that combining MRI scoring with PSA density for risk stratification enables safe biopsy avoidance and limits the over-diagnosis of insignificant cancers.

The value of radiomics model based on ultrasound image features in the differentiation between minimal breast cancer and small benign breast masses

BACKGROUND

Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most common cancer, and is also the main cause of cancer death for women worldwide. Breast cancer <1 cm showed excellent survival rate. However, the diagnosis of minimal breast cancer (MBC) is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of our research is to develop and validate an radiomics model based on ultrasound images for early recognition of MBC.

METHODS

302 breast masses with a diameter of <10 mm were retrospectively studied, including 159 benign and 143 malignant breast masses. The radiomics features were extracted from the gray-scale ultrasound image of the largest face of each breast mass. The maximum relevance minimum reduncancy and recursive feature elimination methods were used to screen. Finally, 10 features with the most discriminating value were selected for modeling. The random forest was used to establish the prediction model, and the rad-score of each mass was calculated. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, we calculated and compared the area under the curve (AUC) value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the model and three groups with different experience in predicting small breast masses, and drew calibration curves and decision curves to test the stability and consistency of the model.

RESULTS

When we selected 10 radiomics features to calculate the rad-score, the prediction efficiency was the best, the AUC values for the training set and testing set were 0.840 and 0.793, which was significantly better than the insufficient experience group (AUC = 0.673), slightly better than the moderate experience group (AUC = 0.768), and was inferior to the experienced group (AUC = 0.877). The calibration curve and decision curve also showed that the radiomics model had satisfied stability and clinical application value.

CONCLUSION

The radiomics model based on ultrasound image features has a satisfied predictive ability for small breast masses, and is expected to become a potential tool for the diagnosis of MBC, and it is a zero cost (in terms of patient participation and imaging time).

Validity of a multiphase CT-based radiomics model in predicting the Leibovich risk groups for localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma: an exploratory study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a multiphase CT-based radiomics model for preoperative risk stratification of patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).

METHODS

A total of 425 patients with localized ccRCC were enrolled and divided into training, validation, and external testing cohorts. Radiomics features were extracted from three-phase CT images (unenhanced, arterial, and venous), and radiomics signatures were constructed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm. The radiomics score (Rad-score) for each patient was calculated. The radiomics model was established and visualized as a nomogram by incorporating significant clinical factors and Rad-score. The predictive performance of the radiomics model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The AUC of the triphasic radiomics signature reached 0.862 (95% CI: 0.809-0.914), 0.853 (95% CI: 0.785-0.921), and 0.837 (95% CI: 0.714-0.959) in three cohorts, respectively, which were higher than arterial, venous, and unenhanced radiomics signatures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Rad-score (OR: 4.066, 95% CI: 3.495-8.790) and renal vein invasion (OR: 12.914, 95% CI: 1.118-149.112) were independent predictors and used to develop the radiomics model. The radiomics model showed good calibration and discrimination and yielded an AUC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.821-0.923), 0.865 (95% CI: 0.800-0.930), and 0.848 (95% CI: 0.728-0.967) in three cohorts, respectively. DCA showed the clinical usefulness of the radiomics model in predicting the Leibovich risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics model can be used as a non-invasive and useful tool to predict the Leibovich risk groups for localized ccRCC patients.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The triphasic CT-based radiomics model achieved favorable performance in preoperatively predicting the Leibovich risk groups in patients with localized ccRCC. Therefore, it can be used as a non-invasive and effective tool for preoperative risk stratification of patients with localized ccRCC.

KEY POINTS

• The triphasic CT-based radiomics signature achieves better performance than the single-phase radiomics signature. • Radiomics holds prospects in preoperatively predicting the Leibovich risk groups for ccRCC. • This study provides a non-invasive method to stratify patients with localized ccRCC.

Predicting the recurrence risk of renal cell carcinoma after nephrectomy: potential role of CT-radiomics for adjuvant treatment decisions

OBJECTIVES

Previous trial results suggest that only a small number of patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) benefit from adjuvant therapy. We assessed whether the addition of CT-based radiomics to established clinico-pathological biomarkers improves recurrence risk prediction for adjuvant treatment decisions.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 453 patients with non-metastatic RCC undergoing nephrectomy. Cox models were trained to predict disease-free survival (DFS) using post-operative biomarkers (age, stage, tumor size and grade) with and without radiomics selected on pre-operative CT. Models were assessed using C-statistic, calibration, and decision curve analyses (repeated tenfold cross-validation).

RESULTS

At multivariable analysis, one of four selected radiomic features (wavelet-HHL_glcm_ClusterShade) was prognostic for DFS with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.44 (p = 0.02), along with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage group (III versus I, HR 2.90; p = 0.002), grade 4 (versus grade 1, HR 8.90; p = 0.001), age (per 10 years HR 1.29; p = 0.03), and tumor size (per cm HR 1.13; p = 0.003). The discriminatory ability of the combined clinical-radiomic model (C = 0.80) was superior to that of the clinical model (C = 0.78; p < 0.001). Decision curve analysis revealed a net benefit of the combined model when used for adjuvant treatment decisions. At an exemplary threshold probability of ≥ 25% for disease recurrence within 5 years, using the combined versus the clinical model was equivalent to treating 9 additional patients (per 1000 assessed) who would recur without treatment (i.e., true-positive predictions) with no increase in false-positive predictions.

CONCLUSION

Adding CT-based radiomic features to established prognostic biomarkers improved post-operative recurrence risk assessment in our internal validation study and may help guide decisions regarding adjuvant therapy.

KEY POINTS

In patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma undergoing nephrectomy, CT-based radiomics combined with established clinical and pathological biomarkers improved recurrence risk assessment. Compared to a clinical base model, the combined risk model enabled superior clinical utility if used to guide decisions on adjuvant treatment.

Radiomic analysis of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging for the prediction of pituitary adenoma consistency

BACKGROUND

The consistency of pituitary adenomas affects the course of surgical treatment.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the diagnostic capabilities of radiomics based on T1-weighted (T1W) and T2-weighted (T2W) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in conjunction with two machine-learning (ML) techniques (support vector machine [SVM] and random forest classifier [RFC]) for assessing the consistency of pituitary adenomas.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The institutional database was retrospectively scanned for patients who underwent surgical excision of pituitary adenomas. Surgical notes were accepted as a reference for the adenoma consistency. Radiomics analysis was performed on preoperative coronal 3.0T T1W and T2W images. First- and second-order parameters were calculated. Inter-observer reproducibility was assessed with Spearman's Correlation (ρ) and intra-observer reproducibility was evaluated with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used for dimensionality reduction. SVM and RFC were used as ML methods.

RESULTS

A total of 52 patients who produced 206 regions of interest (ROIs) were included. Twenty adenomas that produced 88 ROIs had firm consistency. There was both inter-observer and intra-observer reproducibility. Ten parameters that were based on T2W images with high discriminative power and without correlation were chosen by LASSO. The diagnostic performance of SVM and RFC was as follows: sensitivity = 95.580% and 92.950%, specificity = 83.670% and 88.420%, area under the curve = 0.956 and 0.904, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Radiomics analysis based on T2W MRI combined with various ML techniques, such as SVM and RFC, can provide preoperative information regarding pituitary adenoma consistency with high diagnostic accuracy.

Prediction of platinum resistance for advanced high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma using MRI-based radiomics nomogram

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the value of a radiomics nomogram to identify platinum resistance and predict the progression-free survival (PFS) of patients with advanced high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSOC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this multicenter retrospective study, 301 patients with advanced HGSOC underwent radiomics features extraction from the whole primary tumor on contrast-enhanced T1WI and T2WI. The radiomics features were selected by the support vector machine-based recursive feature elimination method, and then the radiomics signature was generated. Furthermore, a radiomics nomogram was developed using the radiomics signature and clinical characteristics by multivariable logistic regression. The predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the clinical utility and benefits of different models.

RESULTS

Five features significantly correlated with platinum resistance were selected to construct the radiomics model. The radiomics nomogram, combining radiomics signatures with three clinical characteristics (FIGO stage, CA-125, and residual tumor), had a higher area under the curve (AUC) compared with the clinical model alone (AUC: 0.799 vs 0.747), with positive NRI and IDI. The net benefit of the radiomics nomogram is typically higher than clinical-only and radiomics-only models. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the radiomics nomogram-defined high-risk groups had shorter PFS compared with the low-risk groups in patients with advanced HGSOC.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics nomogram can identify platinum resistance and predict PFS. It helps make the personalized management of advanced HGSOC.

KEY POINTS

• The radiomics-based approach has the potential to identify platinum resistance and can help make the personalized management of advanced HGSOC. • The radiomics-clinical nomogram showed improved performance compared with either of them alone for predicting platinum-resistant HGSOC. • The proposed nomogram performed well in predicting the PFS time of patients with low-risk and high-risk HGSOC in both training and testing cohorts.

Multivariable stratification of PI-RADS version 2.1 categories for the risk of false-positive target biopsy: Impact on prostate biopsy decisions

PURPOSE

To identify clinical and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) factors predicting false positive target biopsy (FP-TB) of prostate imaging reporting and data system version 2.1 (PI-RADSv2.1) ≥ 3 findings.

METHOD

We retrospectively included 221 men with and without previous negative prostate biopsy who underwent 3.0 T/1.5 T mpMRI for suspicious clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) between April 2019-July 2021. A study coordinator revised mpMRI reports provided by one of two radiologists (experience of > 1500/>500 mpMRI examinations, respectively) and matched them with the results of transperineal systematic biopsy plus fusion target biopsy (TB) of PI-RADSv2.1 ≥ 3 lesions or PI-RADSv2.1 ≤ 2 men with higher clinical risk. A multivariable model was built to identify features predicting FP-TB of index lesions, defined as the absence of csPCa (International Society of Urogenital Pathology [ISUP] ≥ 2). The model was internally validated with the bootstrap technique, receiving operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, and decision analysis.

RESULTS

Features significantly associated with FP-TB were age < 65 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.77), prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) < 0.15 ng/mL/mL (OR 2.45), PI-RADS 4/5 category vs. category 3 (OR 0.15/0.07), and multifocality (OR 0.46), with a 0.815 area under the curve (AUC) in assessing FP-TB. When adjusting PI-RADSv2.1 categorization for the model, mpMRI showed 87.5% sensitivity and 79.9% specificity for csPCa, with a greater net benefit in triggering biopsy compared to unadjusted categorization or adjustment for PSAD only at decision analysis, from threshold probability ≥ 15%.

CONCLUSION

Adjusting PI-RADSv2.1 categories for a multivariable risk of FP-TB is potentially more effective in triggering TB of index lesions than unadjusted PI-RADS categorization or adjustment for PSAD alone.

Decision curve analysis confirms higher clinical utility of multi-domain versus single-domain prediction models in patients with open abdomen treatment for peritonitis

BACKGROUND

Prediction modelling increasingly becomes an important risk assessment tool in perioperative systems approaches, e.g. in complex patients with open abdomen treatment for peritonitis. In this population, combining predictors from multiple medical domains (i.e. demographical, physiological and surgical variables) outperforms the prediction capabilities of single-domain prediction models. However, the benefit of these prediction models for clinical decision-making remains to be investigated. We therefore examined the clinical utility of mortality prediction models in patients suffering from peritonitis with a decision curve analysis.

METHODS

In this secondary analysis of a large dataset, a traditional logistic regression approach, three machine learning methods and a stacked ensemble were employed to examine the predictive capability of demographic, physiological and surgical variables in predicting mortality under open abdomen treatment for peritonitis. Calibration was examined with calibration belts and predictive performance was assessed with the area both under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) and with the Brier Score. Clinical utility of the prediction models was examined by means of a decision curve analysis (DCA) within a treatment threshold range of interest of 0-30%, where threshold probabilities are traditionally defined as the minimum probability of disease at which further intervention would be warranted.

RESULTS

Machine learning methods supported available evidence of a higher prediction performance of a multi- versus single-domain prediction models. Interestingly, their prediction performance was similar to a logistic regression model. The DCA demonstrated that the overall net benefit is largest for a multi-domain prediction model and that this benefit is larger compared to the default "treat all" strategy only for treatment threshold probabilities above about 10%. Importantly, the net benefit for low threshold probabilities is dominated by physiological predictors: surgical and demographics predictors provide only secondary decision-analytic benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

DCA provides a valuable tool to compare single-domain and multi-domain prediction models and demonstrates overall higher decision-analytic value of the latter. Importantly, DCA provides a means to clinically differentiate the risks associated with each of these domains in more depth than with traditional performance metrics and highlighted the importance of physiological predictors for conservative intervention strategies for low treatment thresholds. Further, machine learning methods did not add significant benefit either in prediction performance or decision-analytic utility compared to logistic regression in these data.

Artificial intelligence for differentiating COVID-19 from other viral pneumonias on CT: comparative analysis of different models based on quantitative and radiomic approaches

BACKGROUND

To develop a pipeline for automatic extraction of quantitative metrics and radiomic features from lung computed tomography (CT) and develop artificial intelligence (AI) models supporting differential diagnosis between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other viral pneumonia (non-COVID-19).

METHODS

Chest CT of 1,031 patients (811 for model building; 220 as independent validation set (IVS) with positive swab for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (647 COVID-19) or other respiratory viruses (384 non-COVID-19) were segmented automatically. A Gaussian model, based on the HU histogram distribution describing well-aerated and ill portions, was optimised to calculate quantitative metrics (QM, n = 20) in both lungs (2L) and four geometrical subdivisions (GS) (upper front, lower front, upper dorsal, lower dorsal; n = 80). Radiomic features (RF) of first (RF1, n = 18) and second (RF2, n = 120) order were extracted from 2L using PyRadiomics tool. Extracted metrics were used to develop four multilayer-perceptron classifiers, built with different combinations of QM and RF: Model1 (RF1-2L); Model2 (QM-2L, QM-GS); Model3 (RF1-2L, RF2-2L); Model4 (RF1-2L, QM-2L, GS-2L, RF2-2L).

RESULTS

The classifiers showed accuracy from 0.71 to 0.80 and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.77 to 0.87 in differentiating COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 pneumonia. Best results were associated with Model3 (AUC 0.867 ± 0.008) and Model4 (AUC 0.870 ± 0.011. For the IVS, the AUC values were 0.834 ± 0.008 for Model3 and 0.828 ± 0.011 for Model4.

CONCLUSIONS

Four AI-based models for classifying patients as COVID-19 or non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia showed good diagnostic performances that could support clinical decisions.

Bioinformatics analysis and experimental verification of the prognostic and biological significance mediated by fatty acid metabolism related genes for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Liver cancer is among the leading causes of death related to cancer around the world. The most frequent type of human liver cancer is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Fatty acid (FA) metabolism is an emerging hallmark that plays a promoting role in numerous malignancies. This study aimed to discover a FA metabolism-related risk signature and formulate a better model for HCC patients’ prognosis prediction.

Methods

We collected mRNA expression data and clinical parameters of patients with HCC using the TCGA databases, and the differential FA metabolism-related genes were explored. To create a risk prognostic model, we carried out the consensus clustering as well as univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. 16 genes were used to establish a prognostic model, which was then validated in the ICGC dataset. The accuracy of the model was performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, decision curve analysis (DCA) and nomogram. The immune cell infiltration level of risk genes was evaluated with single-sample GSEA (ssGSEA) algorithm. To reflect the response to immunotherapy, immunophenoscore (IPS) was obtained from TCGA-LIHC. Then, the expression of the candidate risk genes (p < 0.05) was validated by qRT-PCR, Western blotting and single-cell transcriptomics. Cellular function assays were performed to revealed the biological function of HAVCR1.

Results

According to the TCGA-LIHC cohort analysis, the majority of the FA metabolism-related genes were expressed differentially in the HCC and normal tissues. The prognosis of patients with high-risk scores was observed to be worse. Multivariate COX regression analysis confirmed that the model can be employed as an independent prognosis factor for HCC patients. Furthermore, ssGSEA analysis revealed a link between the model and the levels of immune cell infiltration. Our model scoring mechanism also provides a high predictive value in HCC patients receiving anti-PDL1 immunotherapy. One of the FA metabolism-related genes, HAVCR1, displays a significant differential expression between normal and HCC cell lines. Hepatocellular carcinoma cells (Huh7, and HepG2) proliferation, motility, and invasion were all remarkably inhibited by HAVCR1 siRNA.

Conclusion

Our study identified a novel FA metabolism-related prognostic model, revealing a better potential treatment and prevention strategy for HCC.