A simple score for rapid risk assessment of non-high-risk pulmonary embolism

Performance of the Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index in predicting 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism: Validation from a large-scale cohort

BACKGROUND

The performance of existing prognostic scores including the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) for short-term mortality of non-high-risk PE in Chinese population has not been widely validated.

METHODS

Non-high-risk patients were included from the prospective cohort of the China pUlmonary Thromboembolism REgistry Study (CURES). The sPESI, RIETE, Geneva, modified FAST, and Bova score were validated. The discriminatory performance was measured by the area under the curve (AUC). We also compared the sensitivity, odds ratio, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of these scores.

RESULTS

A total of 6,873 non-high-risk patients with acute PE were included and 241 (3.5 %) patients died within 30 days. Compared to the Geneva, modified FAST, and Bova score, the AUCs for predicting 30-day death of sPESI and RIETE score were higher at 0.712 (95 % CI, 0.680, 0.743) and 0.723 (95 % CI, 0.691, 0.755) respectively. The sPESI demonstrated the highest sensitivity at 0.809, while the RIETE score, Geneva, Modified FAST and BOVA score showed sensitivities of 0.622, 0.568, 0.477 and 0.502 respectively. A sPESI ⩾1 point was associated with a 4.7-fold increased risk of 30-day all-cause mortality (95 % CI, 3.427, 6.563, p < 0.001), while a RIETE score of ⩾1 point was associated with a 4.5-fold increased risk (95 % CI, 3.127, 6.341, p < 0.001). The Geneva score, modified FAST and Bova score showed inferior performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the fewer-parameter, easier-to-calculate sPESI in Chinese patients with PE can help to discriminate patients with extremely low risk of short-term mortality for home treatment or early discharge.

Identification of hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism at high risk for death: external validation of different models

BACKGROUND

The optimal strategy for identification of hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) at risk for death and clinical deterioration remains undefined.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the performances of currently available models/scores for identifying hemodynamically stable patients with acute, symptomatic PE at risk of death and clinical deterioration.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter cohort study including patients with acute PE (NCT03631810). Primary study outcome was in-hospital death within 30 days or clinical deterioration. Other outcomes were in-hospital death, death, and PE-related death, all at 30 days. We calculated positive and negative predictive values, c-statistics of European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-2014, ESC-2019, Pulmonary Embolism Thrombolysis (PEITHO), Bova, Thrombo-embolism lactate outcome study (TELOS), fatty acid binding protein, syncope and tachicardia (FAST), and National Early Warning Scale 2 (NEWS2) for the study outcomes.

RESULTS

In 5036 hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE, positive predictive values for the evaluated models/scores were all below 10%, except for TELOS and NEWS2; negative predictive values were above 98% for all the models/scores, except for FAST and NEWS2. ESC-2014 and TELOS had good performances for in-hospital death or clinical deterioration (c-statistic of 0.700 and 0.722, respectively), in-hospital death (c-statistic of 0.713 and 0.723, respectively), and PE-related death (c-statistic of 0.712 and 0.777, respectively); PEITHO, Bova, and NEWS2 also had good performances for PE-related death (c-statistic of 0.738, 0.741, and 0.742, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE, the accuracy for identification of hemodynamically stable patients at risk for death and clinical deterioration varies across the available models/scores; TELOS seems to have the best performance. These data can inform management studies and clinical practice.

Risk Scores in Venous Thromboembolism Guidelines of ESC, ACCP, and ASH: An Updated Review

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Risk scores associated with VTE have been widely used in clinical practice. Among numerous scores published, those included in guidelines are usually typical risk scores which have been extensively validated and globally recognized. This review provides an updated overview of the risk scores associated with VTE endorsed by 3 guidelines which are highly recognized in the field of VTE including the European Society of Cardiology, American College of Chest Physicians, and American Society of Hematology, focusing on the development, modification, validation, and comparison of these scores, to provide a comprehensive and updated understanding of all the classic risk scores associated with VTE to medical readers including but not limited to cardiologists, pulmonologists, hematologists, intensivists, physicians, surgeons, and researchers. Although each score recommended by these guidelines was more or less validated, there may still be room for further improvement. It may still be necessary to seek simpler, more practical, and more universally applicable VTE-related risk scores in the future.

Pulmonary embolism: a practical approach to update risk stratification and treatment decisions based on the guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a prevalent condition with a substantial morbi-mortality worldwide. Proper risk stratification of PE is essential for identifying the most suitable therapeutic strategy and the optimal care setting for the patient. This process entails evaluating various factors, including symptoms, comorbidities, and right heart dysfunction.

AREAS COVERED

This review assesses the tools and methods utilized to identify and stratify individuals based on the probability of developing deterioration or death related to PE. Current guidelines divide PE into three groups: high-risk (previously termed massive) PE, intermediate-risk (sub-massive) PE, and low-risk PE. Various risk scores, such as the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI), Bova score, and the FAST score (incorporating Heart-Fatty Acid binding protein [H-ABP], Syncope, Tachycardia), aid in identifying patients at higher risk. Additionally, the Hestia score is instrumental in pinpointing low-risk patients.

EXPERT OPINION

Presently, there is a dearth of high-quality frameworks for the optimal management and treatment of PE patients at risk of hemodynamic collapse. A consortium of experts is in the process of formulating a new conceptual model for risk stratification, taking into account a comprehensive array of variables and outcomes to facilitate more individualized management of acute PE.

Application of the RIETE score to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism: From the COMMAND VTE Registry

BACKGROUND

The RIETE score could be specifically useful for identification of low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients for home treatment. However, the external validation of the RIETE score has been limited.

METHODS

The COMMAND VTE Registry is a multicenter registry enrolling consecutive patients with acute symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE). The current study population consisted of 1479 patients with acute PE, who were divided into 2 groups; RIETE scores of 0 (N = 260) and ≥ 1 (N = 1219).

RESULTS

The cumulative 10-day and 30-day incidences of a composite endpoint of all-cause death, recurrent PE, or major bleeding were lower in patients with the RIETE score of 0 than in those with the RIETE score of ≥1 (10-day: 0.4 % vs. 6.7 %, P < 0.001, and 30-day: 0.4 % vs. 10.0 %, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the RIETE score for the 10-day composite endpoint showed numerically better predictive ability than that in the sPESI score (0.77 vs. 0.73, P = 0.07), and the AUC in the RIETE score for the 30-day composite endpoint showed significantly better predictive ability than that in the sPESI score (0.77 vs. 0.71, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

The RIETE score was well validated in the current large real-world registry. The RIETE score of 0 could identify patients with reasonably low risks of the 10-day and 30-day composite endpoint of all-cause death, recurrent PE, or major bleeding.

Interventional therapies for pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the leading cause of in-hospital death and the third most frequent cause of cardiovascular death. The clinical presentation of PE is variable, and choosing the appropriate treatment for individual patients can be challenging. Traditionally, treatment of PE has involved a choice of anticoagulation, thrombolysis or surgery; however, a range of percutaneous interventional technologies have been developed that are under investigation in patients with intermediate-high-risk or high-risk PE. These interventional technologies include catheter-directed thrombolysis (with or without ultrasound assistance), aspiration thrombectomy and combinations of the aforementioned principles. These interventional treatment options might lead to a more rapid improvement in right ventricular function and pulmonary and/or systemic haemodynamics in particular patients. However, evidence from randomized controlled trials on the safety and efficacy of these interventions compared with conservative therapies is lacking. In this Review, we discuss the underlying pathophysiology of PE, provide assistance with decision-making on patient selection and critically appraise the available clinical evidence on interventional, catheter-based approaches for PE treatment. Finally, we discuss future perspectives and unmet needs.

Detection of pulmonary embolism severity using clinical characteristics, hematological indices, and machine learning techniques

Introduction

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a cardiopulmonary condition that can be fatal. PE can lead to sudden cardiovascular collapse and is potentially life-threatening, necessitating risk classification to modify therapy following the diagnosis of PE. We collected clinical characteristics, routine blood data, and arterial blood gas analysis data from all 139 patients.

Methods

Combining these data, this paper proposes a PE risk stratified prediction framework based on machine learning technology. An improved algorithm is proposed by adding sobol sequence and black hole mechanism to the cuckoo search algorithm (CS), called SBCS. Based on the coupling of the enhanced algorithm and the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), a prediction framework is also proposed.

Results

To confirm the overall performance of SBCS, we run benchmark function experiments in this work. The results demonstrate that SBCS has great convergence accuracy and speed. Then, tests based on seven open data sets are carried out in this study to verify the performance of SBCS on the feature selection problem. To further demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the SBCS-KELM framework, this paper conducts aided diagnosis experiments on PE data collected from the hospital.

Discussion

The experiment findings show that the indicators chosen, such as syncope, systolic blood pressure (SBP), oxygen saturation (SaO2%), white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil percentage (NEUT%), and others, are crucial for the feature selection approach presented in this study to assess the severity of PE. The classification results reveal that the prediction model's accuracy is 99.26% and its sensitivity is 98.57%. It is expected to become a new and accurate method to distinguish the severity of PE.

Intermediate-Risk Pulmonary Embolism: A Review of Contemporary Diagnosis, Risk Stratification and Management

Pulmonary embolism (PE) can have a wide range of hemodynamic effects, from asymptomatic to a life-threatening medical emergency. Pulmonary embolism (PE) is associated with high mortality and requires careful risk stratification for individualized management. PE is divided into three risk categories: low risk, intermediate-risk, and high risk. In terms of initial therapeutic choice and long-term management, intermediate-risk (or submassive) PE remains the most challenging subtype. The definitions, classifications, risk stratification, and management options of intermediate-risk PE are discussed in this review.

Tumor Necrosis Factor-Related Apoptosis-Inducing Ligand (TRAIL): A Novel Biomarker for Prognostic Assessment and Risk Stratification of Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Background: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) is associated with poor prognosis in cardiovascular diseases. However, the predictive value of TRAIL for the short-term outcome and risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remains unknown. Methods: This study prospectively included 151 normotensive patients with acute PE. The study outcome was a composite of 30-day adverse events, defined as PE-related death, shock, mechanical ventilation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and major bleeding. Results: Overall, nine of 151 (6.0%) patients experienced 30-day adverse composite events. Multivariable logistic regression showed that TRAIL was an independent predictor of study outcome (OR 0.19 per SD; 95% CI 0.04–0.90). An ROC curve revealed that TRAIL’s area under the curve (AUC) was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.88). The optimal cut-off value for TRAIL was 18 pg/mL, with a sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of 89%, 69%, 99%, 15%, 2.87, and 0.16, respectively. Compared with the risk stratification algorithm outlined in the 2019 ESC guidelines, our biomarker-based risk stratification strategy (combining TRAIL and hs-cTnI) has a similar risk classification effect. Conclusion: Reduced plasma TRAIL levels predict short-term adverse events in normotensive patients with acute PE. The combination of the 2019 ESC algorithm and TRAIL aids risk stratification in normotensive patients with acute PE.

Prognostic role of elevated lactate in acute pulmonary embolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown elevated lactate was a good predictor for the prognosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). However, due to low number of patients and different expression of blood lactate in separate study, these results are inconsistent. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the relationship between increased lactate levels and adverse outcome in acute PE.

METHOD

The literatures search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE until May 29, 2021.

RESULTS

Finally, 6 studies with 1706 patients were included in our meta-analysis. High lactate levels were markedly associated with overall mortality both in unselected PE patients (OR 5.13, 95% CI: 3.36-7.86, p < .00,001) and normotensive PE patients (OR 4.54, 95% CI: 2.64-7.80, p < .00,001), and PE-related short-term mortality in patients with elevated lactate was significantly higher than that in patients with normal levels (OR 9.05, 95% CI :4.08-20.10, p < .00,001). The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of lactate for predicting overall mortality in patients with acute PE were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.43-0.85), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.60-0.83), 2.5 (95% CI: 2.0-3.1), and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.26-0.78), respectively. The area under SROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73-0.80).

CONCLUSION

The result of our meta-analysis indicate that elevated blood lactate is a good predictor for overall mortality and short-term mortality in patients with acute PE, and can be routinely measured in risk stratification, but its prognostic role in patients with different risk classes still need to be verified.

Risk stratification to optimize the management of acute pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening disease. Risk stratification in patients with acute PE can guide clinical decisions. Clinical assessment, including hemodynamics, respiratory parameters, patient history, and right ventricle evaluation, has a pivotal role in this scope.

AREAS COVERED

This review aims to describe: i) the role of individual tools for prognostic stratification, from simple clinical parameters to the models suggested by international guidelines; ii) the implications of risk stratification in terms of patient disposition and treatment. The bleeding risk assessment in acute PE was also reviewed. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase to address these issues.

EXPERT OPINION

Prognostic assessment is essential to proceed with life-saving treatments in hemodynamically unstable patients and consider home treatment or short hospital stay in patients at low risk for death. In hemodynamically stable patients, risk stratification allows the implementation of personalized treatment pathways to reduce the risk of death, early PE recurrence, and bleeding. With the aim of optimizing healthcare resources, risk stratification may suggest appropriate patient disposition.

Risk Stratification in Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Current Evidence and Perspectives

Risk stratification is one of the cornerstones of the management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determines the choice of both diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. The first step is the identification of patent circulatory failure, as it is associated with a high risk of immediate mortality and requires a rapid diagnosis and prompt reperfusion. The second step is the estimation of 30-day mortality based on clinical parameters (e.g., original and simplified version of the pulmonary embolism severity index): low-risk patients without right ventricular dysfunction are safely managed with ambulatory anticoagulation. The remaining group of hemodynamically stable patients, labeled intermediate-risk PE, requires hospital admission, even if most of them will heal without complications. In recent decades, efforts have been made to identify a subgroup of patients at an increased risk of adverse outcomes (intermediate-high-risk PE), who might benefit from a more aggressive approach, including reperfusion therapies and admission to a monitored unit. The cur-rent approach, combining markers of right ventricular dysfunction and myocardial injury, has an insufficient positive predictive value to guide primary thrombolysis. Sensitive markers of circulatory failure, such as plasma lactate, have shown interesting prognostic accuracy and may play a central role in the future. Furthermore, the improved security of reduced-dose thrombolysis may enlarge the indication of this treatment to selected intermediate–high-risk PE.

Clinical Phenotypes With Prognostic Implications in Pulmonary Embolism Patients With Syncope

Objectives

There are conflicting data concerning the prognostic significance of syncope in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to investigate the impact of syncope on clinical outcomes of acute PE, and determine the clinical phenotypes of PE patients with syncope and their correlation with prognosis.

Methods

In the ongoing, national, multicenter, registry study, the China pUlmonary thromboembolism REgistry Study (CURES) enrolling consecutive patients with acute PE, patients with and without syncope were investigated. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed using nine variables relevant to syncope and PE, including age, sex, body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, recent surgery or trauma, malignancy, pulse, systolic blood pressure, and respiratory rate. Patient classification was performed using cluster analysis based on the PCA-transformed data. The clinical presentation, disease severity and outcomes were compared among the phenotypes.

Results

In 7,438 patients with acute PE, 777 (10.4%) had syncope, with younger age, more females and higher body mass index. Patients with syncope had higher frequency of precordial pain, palpitation, and elevated cardiac biomarkers, as well as higher D-Dimer level. In the syncope group, more patients had right ventricular/left ventricular ratio &gt; 0.9 in ultrasonic cardiogram and these patients had higher estimated pulmonary arterial systolic pressure compared with patients without syncope. As the initial antithrombotic treatment, more patients with syncope received systemic thrombolysis. Despite a higher prevalence of hemodynamic instability (OR 7.626, 95% CI 2.960–19.644, P &lt; 0.001), syncope did not increase in-hospital death. Principal component analysis revealed that four independent components accounted for 60.3% of variance. PE patients with syncope were classified into four phenotypes, in which patients with high pulse and respiratory rate had markedly higher all-cause mortality during admission.

Conclusion

Syncope was associated with hemodynamic instability and more application of thrombolysis, without increasing in-hospital deaths. Different clinical phenotypes existed in PE patients with syncope, which might be caused by various mechanisms and thus correlated with clinical outcomes.

Development and validation of a prognostic tool: Pulmonary embolism short-term clinical outcomes risk estimation (PE-SCORE)

OBJECTIVE

Develop and validate a prognostic model for clinical deterioration or death within days of pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis using point-of-care criteria.

METHODS

We used prospective registry data from six emergency departments. The primary composite outcome was death or deterioration (respiratory failure, cardiac arrest, new dysrhythmia, sustained hypotension, and rescue reperfusion intervention) within 5 days. Candidate predictors included laboratory and imaging right ventricle (RV) assessments. The prognostic model was developed from 935 PE patients. Univariable analysis of 138 candidate variables was followed by penalized and standard logistic regression on 26 retained variables, and then tested with a validation database (N = 801).

RESULTS

Logistic regression yielded a nine-variable model, then simplified to a nine-point tool (PE-SCORE): one point each for abnormal RV by echocardiography, abnormal RV by computed tomography, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, dysrhythmia, suspected/confirmed systemic infection, syncope, medico-social admission reason, abnormal heart rate, and two points for creatinine greater than 2.0 mg/dL. In the development database, 22.4% had the primary outcome. Prognostic accuracy of logistic regression model versus PE-SCORE model: 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) vs. 0.78 (0.75, 0.82) using area under the curve (AUC) and 0.61 (0.57, 0.64) vs. 0.50 (0.39, 0.60) using precision-recall curve (AUCpr). In the validation database, 26.6% had the primary outcome. PE-SCORE had AUC 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) and AUCpr 0.63 (0.43, 0.81). As points increased, outcome proportions increased: a score of zero had 2% outcome, whereas scores of six and above had ≥ 69.6% outcomes. In the validation dataset, PE-SCORE zero had 8% outcome [no deaths], whereas all patients with PE-SCORE of six and above had the primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

PE-SCORE model identifies PE patients at low- and high-risk for deterioration and may help guide decisions about early outpatient management versus need for hospital-based monitoring.

Heart Rate and Mortality in Patients With Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

The association between heart rate (HR) and pulmonary embolism (PE) outcomes has not been well studied. Furthermore, optimal cutoffs to identify low-risk and intermediate- to high-risk patients are not well known.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Does an association exist between baseline HR and PE outcome across the continuum of HR values?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The current study included 44,331 consecutive nonhypotensive patients with symptomatic PE from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica registry between 2001 and 2021. Outcomes included 30-day all-cause and PE-specific mortality. We used hierarchical logistic regression to assess the association between admission HR and outcomes.

RESULTS

A positive relationship was found between admission HR and 30-day all-cause and PE-related mortality. Considering an HR of 80 to 99 beats/min as a reference, patients in the higher HR strata showed higher rates of all-cause death (adjusted OR, 1.5 for HR of 100-109 beats/min; OR, 1.7 for HR of 110-119 beats/min; OR, 1.9 for HR of 120-139 beats/min; and OR, 2.4 for HR of ≥ 140 beats/min). Patients in the lower strata of HR showed significantly lower rates of 30-day all-cause mortality compared with the same reference group (adjusted OR, 0.6 for HR of 60-79 beats/min; and OR, 0.5 for HR of < 60 beats/min). The findings for 30-day PE-related mortality were similar. For identification of low-risk patients, a cutoff value of 80 beats/min (vs 110 beats/min) increased the sensitivity of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) from 93.4% to 98.8%. For identification of intermediate- to high-risk patients, a cutoff value of 140 beats/min (vs 110 beats/min) increased the specificity of the Bova score from 93.2% to 98.0%.

INTERPRETATION

In nonhypotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE, a high HR portends an increased risk of all-cause and PE-related mortality. Modifying the HR cutoff in the sPESI and the Bova score improves prognostication of patients with PE.

Joint analysis of D-dimer, N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide, and cardiac troponin I on predicting acute pulmonary embolism relapse and mortality

Previous studies on the adverse events of acute pulmonary embolism (APE) were mostly limited to single marker, and short follow-up duration, from hospitalization to up to 30 days. We aimed to predict the long-term prognosis of patients with APE by joint assessment of D-dimer, N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-ProBNP), and troponin I (cTnI). Newly diagnosed patients of APE from January 2011 to December 2015 were recruited from three hospitals. Medical information of the patients was collected retrospectively by reviewing medical records. Adverse events (APE recurrence and all-cause mortality) of all enrolled patients were followed up via telephone. D-dimer > 0.50 mg/L, NT-ProBNP > 500 pg/mL, and cTnI > 0.40 ng/mL were defined as the abnormal. Kaplan–Meier curve was used to compare the cumulative survival rate between patients with different numbers of abnormal markers. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to further test the association between numbers of abnormal markers and long-term prognosis of patients with APE after adjusting for potential confounding. During follow-up, APE recurrence and all-cause mortality happened in 78 (30.1%) patients. The proportion of APE recurrence and death in one abnormal marker, two abnormal markers, and three abnormal markers groups were 7.69%, 28.21%, and 64.10% respectively. Patients with three abnormal markers had the lowest survival rate than those with one or two abnormal markers (Log-rank test, P < 0.001). After adjustment, patients with two or three abnormal markers had a significantly higher risk of the total adverse event compared to those with one abnormal marker. The hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 6.27 (3.24, 12.12) and 10.7 (4.1, 28.0), respectively. Separate analyses for APE recurrence and all-cause death found similar results. A joint test of abnormal D-dimer, NT-ProBNP, and cTnI in APE patients could better predict the long-term risk of APE recurrence and all-cause mortality.

A New Index for the Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: The Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Score (PEMS)

Our aim was to analyze possibility of combination of basic clinical and radiological signs to predict 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We included 486 patients. Age, gender, simplified pulmonary embolism index (sPESI), pH, troponin, N-terminal natriuretic peptide, minimal systolic and diastolic blood pressure, O₂ saturation, syncope, need for vasopressors, thrombotic obstruction, vessel diameter, short axis ratio right ventricle/left ventricle, and contrast medium reflux into the inferior vena cava (IVC) were analyzed. A backward algorithm in a logistic regression model was used to identify relevant risk factors. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified that sPESI, pH, minimal diastolic blood pressure, IVC reflux, and need for vasopressors influenced 30-day mortality. A score for mortality prediction was constructed (the Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Score): sPESI >2 points (1 point), pH <7.35 (1 point), minimal diastolic blood pressure <45 mm Hg (1 point), IVC reflux (1 point), and need for vasopressors (2 points). Patients with >3 points showed higher 30-day mortality (sensitivity: 84.9%, specificity: 83.0%, positive predictive value: 51.8%, negative predictive value: 96.2%). The net reclassification improvement compared with the sPESI was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.73-1.15). In conclusion, a new score can predict 30-day mortality in patients with PE and is more sensitive than sPESI.

Risk Stratification in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: The Latest Algorithms

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common clinical entity, which most clinicians will encounter. Appropriate risk stratification of patients is key to identify those who may benefit from reperfusion therapy. The first step in risk assessment should be the identification of hemodynamic instability and, if present, urgent patient consideration for systemic thrombolytics. In the absence of shock, there is a plethora of imaging studies, biochemical markers, and clinical scores that can be used to further assess the patients' short-term mortality risk. Integrated prediction models incorporate more information toward an individualized and precise mortality prediction. Additionally, bleeding risk scores should be utilized prior to initiation of anticoagulation and/or reperfusion therapy administration. Here, we review the latest algorithms for a comprehensive risk stratification of the patient with acute PE.

In-hospital and short-term predictors of mortality in patients with intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the in-hospital and short-term predictive factors of mortality in intermediate-high risk acute pulmonary embolism (PE) patients with right ventricle (RV)dysfunction and myocardial injury.

Methods: In this retrospective study, the medical records of 187 patients with a diagnosis of intermediate high risk acute PE were evaluated. A contrast-enhanced multi-detector pulmonary angiography was used to confirm diagnosis in all cases. All-cause mortality was determined by obtaining both in hospital and 30 days follow-up data of patients from medical records.

Results: During the in-hospital stay (9.5±4.72 days), 7 patients died, resulting in an acute PE related in-hospital mortality of 3.2%. Admission heart rate (HR), (Odds ratio (OR), 1.028 95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.002-1.121; P = 0.048) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR, 1.028 95% CI, 0.002-1.016; P = 0.044) were found to be independent predictors for in-hospital mortality in a multi variate logistic regression analysis. In total, 32 patients (20.9%) died during 30 days follow-up.The presence of congestive heart failure (OR, 0.015, 95%CI, 0.001-0.211; P = 0.002) and dementia (OR, 0.029, 95%CI,0.002-0.516; P = 0.016) as well as low albumin level (OR, 0.049 95%CI, 0.006-0.383; P = 0.049) were associated with 30 days mortality.

Conclusion: HR and BUN were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and the presence of congestive heart failure, dementia, and low albumin levels were associated with higher 30 days mortality.

High-sensitivity troponin I for risk stratification in normotensive pulmonary embolism

While numerous studies have confirmed the prognostic role of high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) in pulmonary embolism (PE), high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) is inappropriately studied. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic relevance of hsTnI in normotensive PE, establish the optimal cut-off value for risk stratification and to compare the prognostic performances of hsTnI and hsTnT.

Based on data from 459 consecutive PE patients enrolled in a single-centre registry, receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to identify an optimal hsTnI cut-off value for prediction of in-hospital adverse outcomes (PE-related death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation or vasopressor treatment) and all-cause mortality.

Patients who suffered an in-hospital adverse outcome (4.8%) had higher hsTnI concentrations compared with those with a favourable clinical course (57 (interquartile range (IQR) 22–197) versus 15 (IQR 10–86) pg·mL⁻¹, p=0.03). A hsTnI cut-off value of 16 ng·mL⁻¹ provided optimal prognostic performance and predicted in-hospital adverse outcomes (OR 6.5, 95% CI 1.9–22.4) and all-cause mortality (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.0–13.3). Between female and male patients, no relevant differences in hsTnI concentrations (17 (IQR 10–97) versus 17 (IQR 10–92) pg·mL⁻¹, p=0.79) or optimised cut-off values were observed. Risk stratification according to the 2019 European Society of Cardiology algorithm revealed no differences if calculated based on either hsTnI or hsTnT (p=0.68).

Our findings confirm the prognostic role of hsTnI in normotensive PE. HsTnI concentrations >16 pg·mL⁻¹ predicted in-hospital adverse outcome and all-cause mortality; sex-specific cut-off values do not seem necessary. Importantly, our results suggest that hsTnI and hsTnT can be used interchangeably for risk stratification.

The study confirms the prognostic relevance of high-sensitivity troponin I in normotensive pulmonary embolism. A cut-off value of 16 pg·mL⁻¹ can be used for risk stratification in male and female patients; sex-specific adjustments do not appear necessary.https://bit.ly/3lCECip

Definition of tachycardia for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Tachycardia is a reliable predictor of adverse outcomes in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). However, different prognostic relevant heart rate thresholds have been proposed. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic performance of different thresholds used for defining tachycardia in normotensive PE patients.

METHODS

We performed a post-hoc analysis of normotensive patients with confirmed PE consecutively included in a single-centre and a multi-centre registry. An adverse outcome was defined as PE-related death, need for mechanical ventilation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation or administration of catecholamines.

RESULTS

Of 1567 patients (median age: 72 [IQR, 59-79] years; females: 46.1%) included in the analysis, 78 patients (5.0%) had an in-hospital adverse outcome. The rate of an adverse outcome was higher in patients with a heart rate ≥100 bpm (7.6%) and ≥110 bpm (8.3%) compared to patients with a heart rate <100 bpm (3.0%). A heart rate ≥100 bpm and ≥110 bpm was associated with a 2.7 (95% CI 1.7-4.3) and 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.5-3.7) increased risk for an adverse outcome, respectively. Receiver operating characteristics analysis revealed a similar area under the curve with regard to an adverse outcome for all scores and algorithm (ESC 2019 algorithm, modified FAST and Bova score) if calculated with a heart rate threshold of ≥100 bpm or of ≥110 bpm.

CONCLUSIONS

Defining tachycardia by a heart rate ≥100 bpm is sufficient for risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute PE. The use of different heart rate thresholds for calculation of scores and algorithm does not appear necessary.

The Prognostic Value of Syncope on Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Syncope is a presenting symptom in 10% to 20% of patients with pulmonary embolism. We perform a meta-analysis to clarify the prognostic value of syncope on short-term mortality in pulmonary embolism patients and its association with hemodynamic instability.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched up until January 7, 2020. Studies reporting inhospital or 30-day mortality of adults with pulmonary embolism with and without syncope were included. Quality of included studies was evaluated with the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to derive pooled odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences for the relation of syncope with mortality and hemodynamic instability. To study the influence of hemodynamic instability on the association between syncope and mortality, meta-regression was performed.

RESULTS

Search and selection resulted in 26 studies, of which 20 were pooled, involving 9,419 of 335,120 patients (3%) with syncope. Syncope was associated with higher mortality (OR 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 2.90; I2 88%; risk difference 4% [95% CI 1% to 8%]) and higher prevalence of hemodynamic instability (OR 4.36; 95% CI 2.27 to 8.37; I2 93%; risk difference 12% [95% CI 7% to 18%]). OR for mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism with syncope versus without it was higher in the presence of a larger difference in hemodynamic instability between groups (coefficient 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09).

CONCLUSION

The association between syncope and short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism is explained by a difference in hemodynamic instability. This emphasizes the importance of risk stratification by hemodynamic status in pulmonary embolism patients with and without syncope.

Acute pulmonary embolism multimodality imaging prior to endovascular therapy

The manuscript discusses the application of CT pulmonary angiography, ventilation–perfusion scan, and magnetic resonance angiography to detect acute pulmonary embolism and to plan endovascular therapy. CT pulmonary angiography offers high accuracy, speed of acquisition, and widespread availability when applied to acute pulmonary embolism detection. This imaging modality also aids the planning of endovascular therapy by visualizing the number and distribution of emboli, determining ideal intra-procedural catheter position for treatment, and signs of right heart strain. Ventilation–perfusion scan and magnetic resonance angiography with and without contrast enhancement can also aid in the detection and pre-procedural planning of endovascular therapy in patients who are not candidates for CT pulmonary angiography.

Assessment of the Bova score for risk stratification of acute normotensive pulmonary embolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Identification of normotensive pulmonary embolism (PE) at high risk of early adverse outcome is crucial for guiding treatment. Studies showed the Bova score had promising performance in stratifying normotensive PE.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic performance of the Bova score for normotensive PE.

RESULTS

Nine studies involving 8342 acute normotensive PE patients were enrolled. Overall, 71.4%, 20.2% and 8.4% patients were stratified as risk class I, II and III. Pooled incidence of short-term PE related composite adverse outcome of each group were 3.8%, 10.8% and 19.9%, respectively, exhibiting a significant rising trend. Increasing trends of 30-day and in-hospital composite adverse outcome rates, as well as PE related mortality, were also observed with upper risk classes. Compared with risk class I and II, high risk group (class III) was significantly associated with short-term PE related composite adverse outcome (OR: 5.45, 95% CI, 3.70-8.02) and PE related death (OR: 5.09, 95% CI, 3.54-7.30). Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the score for predicting short-term composite adverse outcome were 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29), 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.93), 4.05 (95% CI, 2.90-5.67) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.88), respectively. The weighted area under the summarized receiver characteristics operation curve for predicting composite adverse outcome was 0.73 ± 0.09.

CONCLUSION

The Bova score could effectively discriminate normotensive PE with different short-term prognosis and has good performance in identifying patients at higher risk of short-term adverse events.

Validation of a fast prognostic score for risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Background

Recent studies demonstrate an improved prognostic performance of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) algorithm for risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) compared to the 2008 ESC algorithm. The modified FAST and Bova scores appear especially helpful to identify PE patients at intermediate-high risk.

Methods

We validated the prognostic performance of the modified FAST score compared to other scores for risk stratification in a post-hoc analysis of 868 normotensive PE patients included in the prospective Italian Pulmonary Embolism Registry. In-hospital adverse outcome was defined as PE-related death, mechanical ventilation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation or administration of catecholamines.

Results

Overall, 27 patients (3.1%) had an adverse outcome and 32 patients (3.7%) died. The rate of an adverse outcome was highest in the intermediate-high risk classes of the 2019 ESC algorithm (7.5%) and the modified FAST score (5.3%) while the Bova score failed to discriminate between intermediate-low and intermediate-high-risk patients. Patients classified as intermediate-high risk by the 2019 ESC algorithm (Odds Ratio [OR], 4.2 [95% CI, 1.9–9.0]) and modified FAST score (OR, 2.8 [1.3–6.2]) had a higher risk of an adverse outcome compared to patients classified by the Bova score (OR, 1.6 [0.7–3.7]). The c-index was higher for the 2019 ESC algorithm and the modified FAST score (AUC, 0.69 [0.58–0.79] and 0.67 [0.59–0.76]) compared to the Bova score (AUC, 0.64 [0.55–0.73]).

Conclusions

The 2019 ESC algorithm provided the best prognostic performance, but also the modified FAST score accurately stratified normotensive PE patients in different risk classes while the Bova score failed to identify patients at highest risk.

Graphic abstract

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00392-019-01593-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic impact of copeptin in pulmonary embolism: a multicentre validation study

To externally validate the prognostic impact of copeptin, either alone or integrated in risk stratification models, in pulmonary embolism (PE), we performed a post hoc analysis of 843 normotensive PE patients prospectively included in three European cohorts.

Within the first 30 days, 21 patients (2.5%, 95% CI 1.5–3.8) had an adverse outcome and 12 (1.4%, 95% CI 0.7–2.5) died due to PE. Patients with copeptin ≥24 pmol·L−1 had a 6.3-fold increased risk for an adverse outcome (95% CI 2.6–15.5, p<0.001) and a 7.6-fold increased risk for PE-related death (95% CI 2.3–25.6, p=0.001). Risk classification according to the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline algorithm identified 248 intermediate-high-risk patients (29.4%) with 5.6% (95% CI 3.1–9.3) at risk of adverse outcomes. A stepwise biomarker-based risk assessment strategy (based on high-sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and copeptin) identified 123 intermediate-high-risk patients (14.6%) with 8.9% (95% CI 4.5–15.4) at risk of adverse outcomes. The identification of patients at higher risk was even better when copeptin was measured on top of the 2014 ESC algorithm in intermediate-high-risk patients (adverse outcome OR 11.1, 95% CI 4.6–27.1, p<0.001; and PE-related death OR 13.5, 95% CI 4.2–43.6, p<0.001; highest risk group versus all other risk groups). This identified 85 patients (10.1%) with 12.9% (95% CI 6.6–22.0) at risk of adverse outcomes and 8.2% (95% CI 3.4–16.2) at risk of PE-related deaths.

Copeptin improves risk stratification of normotensive PE patients, especially when identifying patients with an increased risk of an adverse outcome.

Comparison of clinical scores for identification of patients with pulmonary embolism at intermediate-high risk of adverse clinical outcome: the prognostic role of plasma lactate

To compare the prognostic accuracy of the 2014 risk model of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and of Bova and TELOS scores for identification of normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) at high risk for short-term adverse events (i.e., intermediate-high risk patients), we retrospectively applied these tests to a prospective cohort of 994 normotensive patients with objectively confirmed PE. Sixty-three (6.3 %) patients reached the primary outcome, a composite of hemodynamic collapse and death within 7 days from diagnosis. The Bova and TELOS scores classified the same proportion of patients in intermediate-high risk category (5.9 and 5.7 %, respectively), with a similar primary outcome rate (18.6 and 21.1 %, respectively). The 2014 ESC model classified in the intermediate-high risk category the largest proportion of patients (12.5 %, p < 0.001 vs Bova and TELOS), with the lowest primary outcome rate (13 %, p = ns vs Bova and TELOS). When lactate determination was added to the Bova score, 112 patients (11.2 %) were classified in the intermediate-high risk category (p < 0.05 vs Bova and TELOS), with a slight increase in the primary outcome rate (25.9 %, p = 0.014 vs 2014 ESC model), allowing the recognition of a twofold higher number of patients reaching the primary outcome (29 vs 15, 11 and 12 patients in the 2014 ESC model, Bova and TELOS scores, respectively, p < 0.01 for all). The 2014 ESC model, Bova and TELOS scores identify a small number of intermediate-high risk patients with PE, without differences among tests. Adding plasma lactate to the Bova score significantly improves the identification of intermediate-high risk patients.

TIMI Risk Index as a Predictor of 30-Day Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

Available studies have already identified age, heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as strong predictors of early mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

One-hundred-seventy patients, with acute PE confirmed on computed tomography angiography (CTA) were enrolled. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) was calculated using the formula [heart rate (HR) x (AGE/102)/ systolic blood pressure (SBP)]. Study outcomes were 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration.

RESULTS

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed that a TRI ≥45 was highly specific for both outcomes (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-0.98, p<0.0001) with a positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 8.3 and 96% for 30-day mortality while PPV and NPV for 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration were 21.1 and 98.2%, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis showed that TRI ≥45 was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (O.R. 22.24, 95% CI 2.54-194.10, p=0.005) independently from positive cTnI and RVD (O.R. 9.57, 95% CI 1.88-48.78, p=0.007; OR 24.99, 95% CI 2.84-219.48, p=0.004). Similarly, 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration was predicted by TRI ≥45 (O.R. 11.57, 95% CI 2.36-56.63, p=0.003) and thrombolysis (3.83, 95% CI 1.04-14.09, p=0.043), independently from age, RVD and positive cTnI. Cox regression analysis confirmed the role of TRI as independent predictor for both outcomes. Mantel-Cox analysis showed that after 30-day follow-up there was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of survival between patients with and without TRI ≥45 [log rank (Mantel-Cox) chi-square 17.04, p<0.0001].

CONCLUSIONS

Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) predicted both 30-days mortality (all-causes) and/or clinical deterioration in patients with acute PE.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of Pulmonary Embolism Caused by Economy Class Syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Clinical presentation and short-term prognosis of patients with travel-associated acute pulmonary embolism (PE) (i.e., economy class syndrome [ECS]) is not well understood.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study of patients with acute PE identified from a single center registry, we assessed the clinical presentation and the association between ECS and the outcomes of all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, nonfatal venous thromboembolism and nonfatal major bleeding rates through 30days after initiation of PE treatment.

RESULTS

Of the 2,333 patients with acute symptomatic PE, 124 (5.3%; 95% confidence interval, 4.4-6.3%) had ECS. Patients with ECS were younger and had fewer comorbid diseases (recent bleeding, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure), but they presented with more signs of clinical severity (syncope [48% vs. 14%; P<.001], tachycardia [37% vs. 21%; P<.001], right ventricular dysfunction [31% vs. 19%; P<.01] and myocardial injury [57% vs. 28%; P<.001]) compared to those without ECS. Regression analyses showed a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality for patients with ECS compared to patients without ECS (1.6% vs. 9.6%; P<.01). We did not detect a difference in PE-related mortality at 30days between those with and those without ECS (0.8% vs. 3.1%; P=.18).

CONCLUSIONS

PE patients with ECS are younger and have fewer comorbid diseases compared to those without ECS. Though they present with more signs of clinical severity, their short-term prognosis is excellent.

Biomarkers for Clinical Decision-Making in the Management of Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is associated with high all-cause and PE-related mortality and requires individualized management. After confirmation of PE, a refined risk stratification is particularly warranted among normotensive patients. Previous prognostic models favored combinations of echocardiography or computed tomography suggestive of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction together with biomarkers of RV dysfunction (natriuretic peptides) or myocardial injury (cardiac troponins) to identify candidates for thrombolysis or embolectomy. In contrast, current predictive models using clinical scores such as the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) or its simplified version (sPESI) rather seek to identify patients, not only those at higher risk requiring observation for early detection of hemodynamic decompensation, and the need for initiation of rescue reperfusion therapy, but also those at low risk qualifying for early discharge and outpatient treatment. Almost all prediction models advocate the additional measurement of biomarkers along with imaging of RV dysfunction as part of a comprehensive algorithm.

CONTENT

The following mini-review will provide an updated overview on the individual components of different algorithms with a particular focus on guideline-recommended and new, less-established biomarkers for risk stratification, and how biomarkers should be implemented and interpreted.

SUMMARY

Ideally, biomarkers should be part of a comprehensive risk stratification algorithm used together with clinical risk scores as a basis, and/or imaging. For this purpose, cardiac troponins, including high-sensitivity troponin generations, natriuretic peptides, and h-FABP (heart-type fatty acid–binding protein) are currently recommended in guidelines. There is emerging evidence for several novel biomarkers that require further validation before being applied in clinical practice.

Risk stratification and management of acute pulmonary embolism

The clinical management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism is rapidly changing over the years. The widening spectrum of clinical management strategies for these patients requires effective tools for risk stratification. Patients at low risk for death could be candidates for home treatment or early discharge. Clinical models with high negative predictive value have been validated that could be used to select patients at low risk for death. In a major study and in several meta-analyses, thrombolysis in hemodynamically stable patients was associated with unacceptably high risk for major bleeding complications or intracranial hemorrhage. Thus, the presence of shock or sustained hypotension continues to be the criterion for the selection of candidates for thrombolytic treatment. Interventional procedures for early revascularization should be reserved to selected patients until further evidence is available. No clinical advantage is expected with the insertion of a vena cava filter in the acute-phase management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Direct oral anticoagulants used in fixed doses without laboratory monitoring showed similar efficacy (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.12) and safety (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.03) in comparison with conventional anticoagulation in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Based on these results and on their practicality, direct oral anticoagulants are the agents of choice for the treatment of the majority of patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers.

DATA ANALYSIS

Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy.

RESULTS

We included 71 studies (44,298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5-1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20-29% of event rate).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies.

Syncope and collapse in acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Syncope and collapse (=presyncope) are 2 symptoms of pulmonary embolism (PE), which are suspected of being connected with poorer outcome, regardless of haemodynamic instability. However, pathomechanisms are not completely understood. We aimed to investigate these pathomechanisms in regard to blood pressure and heart rate of syncope/collapse in PE.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of consecutive PE patients, who were treated in the Internal Medicine Department. Patients with and without syncope/collapse were compared. Regression models for associations between syncope/collapse and blood pressure, heart rate and shock index (SI) were computed. Moreover we calculated ROC analyses and Youden indices for effectiveness and cut-off-values of these parameters for the probability of syncope/collapse.

RESULTS

182 patients (mean-age 68.5±15.3years; 61.5% female) with confirmed PE were included in this study. 20 PE patients (11.0%) showed a syncope/collapse. PE patients with syncope/collapse were in median 7.5years older (78.5 (72.0/82.3) vs. 71.0 (61.0/80.0) years, P=.0575), had lower systolic (132.0 (108.8/154.0) vs. 145.5 (127.0/166.0) mmHg, P=.0845) and diastolic (70.0±27.0 vs. 78.4±18.4mmHg, P=.0740) blood pressure, whereas heart rate (103.5 (87.8/116.0) vs. 90.0 (76.0/102.0)beats/min, P=.0518), SI (0.78 (0.65/1.01) vs. 0.60(0.50/0.79), P=.0127) and frequency of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) (88.2% vs. 55.8%, P=.0294) were higher in PE patients with syncope/collapse than in those without. Hypotension (systolic blood pressure<90mmHg), tachycardia and SI>1.0were connected with 6.4-fold, 2.5-fold and 5.8-fold higher probability of syncope/collapse, respectively. ROC analyses revealed cut-off values of ≤110mmHg, ≥107beats/min and >0.62 for systolic blood pressure, heart rate and SI with low AUC values, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The pathomechanism of syncope/collapse in patients with acute PE seems to be connected with blood pressure fall, heart rate increase and RVD, in terms of cardiovascular syncope with reduced cardiac output and vasovagal reflex.

Impact of relative contraindications to home management in emergency department patients with low-risk pulmonary embolism

RATIONALE

Studies of adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) suggest that those who are low risk on the PE Severity Index (classes I and II) can be managed safely without hospitalization. However, the impact of relative contraindications to home management on outcomes has not been described.

OBJECTIVES

To compare 5-day and 30-day adverse event rates among low-risk ED patients with acute PE without and with outpatient ineligibility criteria.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of adults presenting to the ED with acute low-risk PE between 2010 and 2012. We evaluated the association between outpatient treatment eligibility criteria based on a comprehensive list of relative contraindications and 5-day adverse events and 30-day outcomes, including major hemorrhage, recurrent venous thromboembolism, and all-cause mortality.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 423 adults with acute low-risk PE, 271 (64.1%) had no relative contraindications to outpatient treatment (outpatient eligible), whereas 152 (35.9%) had at least one contraindication (outpatient ineligible). Relative contraindications were categorized as PE-related factors (n = 112; 26.5%), comorbid illness (n = 42; 9.9%), and psychosocial barriers (n = 19; 4.5%). There were no 5-day events in the outpatient-eligible group (95% upper confidence limit, 1.7%) and two events (1.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-5.0%) in the outpatient-ineligible group (P = 0.13). At 30 days, there were five events (two recurrent venous thromboemboli and three major bleeding events) in the outpatient-eligible group (1.8%; 95% CI, 0.7-4.4%) compared with nine in the ineligible group (5.9%; 95% CI, 2.7-10.9%; P < 0.05). This difference remained significant when controlling for PE severity class.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly two-thirds of adults presenting to the ED with low-risk PE were potentially eligible for outpatient therapy. Relative contraindications to outpatient management were associated with an increased frequency of adverse events at 30 days among adults with low-risk PE.

Comparison of risk assessment strategies for not-high-risk pulmonary embolism

We compared the prognostic performance of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification algorithm with the previous 2008 ESC algorithm, the Bova score and the modified FAST score (based on a positive heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) test, syncope and tachycardia, modified using high-sensitivity troponin T instead of H-FABP) in 388 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients included in a single-centre cohort study.Overall, 25 patients (6.4%) had an adverse 30-day outcome. Regardless of the score or algorithm used, the rate of an adverse outcome was highest in the intermediate-high-risk classes, while all patients classified as low-risk had a favourable outcome (no pulmonary embolism-related deaths, 0-1.4% adverse outcome). The area under the curve for predicting an adverse outcome was higher for the 2014 ESC algorithm (0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.84) compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm (0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73) and highest for the modified FAST score (0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). Patients classified as intermediate-high-risk by the 2014 ESC algorithm had a 8.9-fold increased risk for an adverse outcome (3.2-24.2, p<0.001 compared with intermediate-low- and low-risk patients), while the highest OR was observed for a modified FAST score ≥3 points (OR 15.9, 95% CI 5.3-47.6, p<0.001).The 2014 ESC algorithm improves risk stratification of not-high-risk pulmonary embolism compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm. All scores and algorithms accurately identified low-risk patients, while the modified FAST score appears more suitable to identify intermediate-high-risk patients.

Management of massive and submassive pulmonary embolism: focus on recent randomized trials

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although early pulmonary revascularization is the treatment of choice for patients with high-risk (massive) pulmonary embolism, it remains controversial in patients with intermediate-risk (submassive) pulmonary embolism until recently. Recent published data on the management of high-risk and intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism patients will be the main focus of this review.

RECENT FINDINGS

The PEITHO trial supports the rationale of risk stratification in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism. Patients with right ventricular dilation on echocardiography and positive cardiac troponin test have a high intermediate risk of complication and death. Thrombolysis prevents hemodynamic collapse in these patients but with an increased risk of major bleeding particularly in older patients (>75 years). Reduced dose of thrombolysis and catheter-based reperfusion with or without fibrinolysis have shown promising results.

SUMMARY

Thrombolysis is the treatment of choice for patients with high-risk pulmonary embolism. Surgical embolectomy is recommended in case of absolute contra-indication to thrombolysis. In patients with acute right ventricular dysfunction on cardiac imaging and myocardial injury, thrombolysis should be considered if they are 75 years or less of age and are at low risk of bleeding. Full-dose thrombolysis may be excessively risky in patients over 75 years. In patients with either RV dilation or elevated cardiac biomarker, thrombolysis is not recommended.

A novel H-FABP assay and a fast prognostic score for risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism

We tested whether heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) measured by a fully-automated immunoturbidimetric assay in comparison to ELISA provides additive prognostic value in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), and validated a fast prognostic score in comparison to the ESC risk prediction model and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI). We prospectively examined 271 normotensive patients with PE; of those, 20 (7%) had an adverse 30-day outcome. H-FABP levels determined by immunoturbidimetry were higher (median, 5.2 [IQR; 2.7-9.8] ng/ml) than those by ELISA (2.9 [1.1-5.4] ng/ml), but Bland-Altman plot demonstrated a good agreement of both assays. The area under the curve for H-FABP was greater for immunoturbidimetry than for ELISA (0.82 [0.74-0.91] vs 0.78 [0.68-0.89]; P=0.039). H-FABP measured by immunoturbidimetry (but not by ELISA) provided additive prognostic information to other predictors of 30-day outcome (OR, 12.4 [95% CI, 1.6-97.6]; P=0.017). When H-FABP determined by immunoturbidimetry was integrated into a novel prognostic score (H-FABP, Syncope, and Tachycardia; FAST score), the score provided additive prognostic information by multivariable analysis (OR, 14.2 [3.9-51.4]; p<0.001; c-index, 0.86) which were superior to information obtained by the ESC model (c-index, 0.62; net reclassification improvement (NRI), 0.39 [0.21-0.56]; P<0.001) or the sPESI (c-index, 0.68; NRI, 0.24 [0.05-0.43]; P=0.012). In conclusion, determination of H-FABP by immunoturbidimetry provides prognostic information superior to that of ELISA and, if integrated in the FAST score, appears more suitable to identify patients with an adverse 30-day outcome compared to the ESC model and sPESI.

The predictive value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein is independent from symptom duration in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). In patients with acute myocardial infarction, H-FABP plasma concentrations rise after 30 minutes and return to normal within 20-24 hours. We tested whether the predictive value of H-FABP is affected by the duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis in patients with PE.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 257 consecutive normotensive patients with confirmed symptomatic PE.

RESULTS

Patients with acute (<24 hours; n=150) symptom onset presented more often with syncope (28.7% vs. 6.5%; p<0.001) compared to patients with symptoms ≥ 24 hours (n=107); other baseline characteristics, comorbidities, and risk factors were distributed equally. Patients with an adverse 30-day outcome (6.6%) had higher H-FABP levels (11.84 [3.57-19.62] ng/ml) compared to patients with a favorable course (3.42 [1.92-5.42] ng/ml; p<0.001). However, the proportion of patients with H-FABP levels ≥ 6 ng/ml did not differ among patients with acute symptom onset and late presentation (p=0.104). Only tachycardia and elevation of H-FABP were associated with an increased risk of an adverse 30-day outcome both in patients with acute symptom onset (H-FABP: OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.4-24.5; p=0.016; tachycardia: 7.0 [1.4-36.0]; p=0.018) and late presentation (H-FABP: 9.3 [2.0-43.2]; p=0.004 and tachycardia: 12.3 [1.5-103.6]; p=0.021). The prognostic value could further be improved by the use of a simple H-FABP-based clinical prediction score.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that H-FABP is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of normotensive patients with PE regardless of symptom duration prior to diagnosis.

Evaluation factors of pulmonary embolism severity and prognosis

Management of pulmonary embolism (PE) is still unclear. We summarized 16 kinds of evaluation factors of PE severity and prognosis, and we analyzed the single and joint value for short-term and long-term prognosis. Among them, biomarkers such as brain natriuretic peptide or N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, troponin, and heart-type fatty acid-binding protein are the best indicators of PE severity and short-term prognosis. They might replace imaging detections in evaluating PE severity. But the positive predictive value of all the biomarkers is low, and we need to improve each value through joint detection. The PE severity index and simplified PE severity index are more suitable for evaluating the overall risk and long-term prognosis. They could be used as complements of indicators of the PE severity, especially in identifying low-risk group. Integrated risk stratification and strategies of management should be established based on the 2 aspects mentioned previously.