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Wang M, Pan J, Li X, Li M, Liu Z, Zhao Q, Luo L, Chen H, Chen S, Jiang F, Zhang L, Wang W, Wang Y. ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1447. [PMID: 35906580 PMCID: PMC9338508 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13872-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a model that combines ARIMA with the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) in predicting the incidence of pertussis in mainland China. BACKGROUND The incidence of pertussis has increased rapidly in mainland China since 2016, making the disease an increasing public health threat. There is a pressing need for models capable of accurately predicting the incidence of pertussis in order to guide prevention and control measures. We developed and compared two models for predicting pertussis incidence in mainland China. METHODS Data on the incidence of pertussis in mainland China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. An ARIMA model was established using SAS (ver. 9.4) software and an ARIMA-ERNN model was established using MATLAB (ver. R2019a) software. The performances of these models were compared. RESULTS From 2004 to 2019, there were 104,837 reported cases of pertussis in mainland China, with an increasing incidence over time. The incidence of pertussis showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to September every year. Compared with the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model, those of the ARIMA-ERNN model were 81.43%, 95.97% and 80.86% lower, respectively, in fitting performance. In terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE were 37.75%, 56.88% and 43.75% lower, respectively. CONCLUSION The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA model. This provides theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and should be beneficial to public health decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meng Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Jinhua Pan
- Department of Ultrasound Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
- Key Laboratory of Pulsed Power Translational Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Xinghui Li
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Mengying Li
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Zhixi Liu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Linyun Luo
- China National Biotec Group Company Limited, Beijing, 100024, China
| | - Haiping Chen
- China National Biotec Group Company Limited, Beijing, 100024, China
| | - Sirui Chen
- Hunan Normal University, Hunan, 410081, China
| | - Feng Jiang
- Institute of Expanded Programme On Immunization, Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guizhou Province, Guiyang, 550004, People's Republic of China
| | - Liping Zhang
- Minhang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, 201100, China
| | - Weibing Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
| | - Ying Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
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Tracheal colonization factor A (TcfA) is a biomarker for rapid and specific detection of Bordetella pertussis. Sci Rep 2020; 10:15002. [PMID: 32929160 PMCID: PMC7490692 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-72092-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2020] [Accepted: 08/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Pertussis is a highly contagious disease for which prompt, point-of-care diagnosis remains an unmet clinical need. Results from conventional test modalities (nucleic acid detection, serology, and culture) take hours to days. To overcome this challenge, we identified a new biomarker (tracheal colonization factor A, TcfA) for detection of Bordetella pertussis infection by lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA). We developed a library of 28 epitope-mapped monoclonal antibodies against TcfA and incorporated three antibodies into a LFIA. The LFIA did not cross-react with common bacterial or fungal organisms, but did react with nine distinct B. pertussis strains. The minimal linear epitope sequences targeted by the LFIA were conserved in 98% of 954 B. pertussis isolates collected across 12 countries from 1949–2017. The LFIA’s limit of detection was 3.0 × 105 CFU/mL with B. pertussis cells in buffer, 6.2 × 105 CFU/mL with nasopharyngeal washes from a non-human primate model, and 2.3 ng/mL with recombinant TcfA. The LFIA reacted with patient nasopharyngeal swab specimens containing as few as 1.8 × 106B. pertussis genomes/mL and showed no false-positives. Rapid (< 20 min) LFIA detection of TcfA as a biomarker for B. pertussis infection is feasible and may facilitate early detection of pertussis.
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Del Valle-Mendoza J, Silva-Caso W, Aguilar-Luis MA, Del Valle-Vargas C, Cieza-Mora E, Martins-Luna J, Aquino-Ortega R, Silva-Vásquez A, Bazán-Mayra J, Weilg P. Bordetella pertussis in children hospitalized with a respiratory infection: clinical characteristics and pathogen detection in household contacts. BMC Res Notes 2018; 11:318. [PMID: 29776433 PMCID: PMC5960213 DOI: 10.1186/s13104-018-3405-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2018] [Accepted: 05/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Describe the prevalence of Bordetella pertussis via PCR in children under 5 years old hospitalized as probable cases of pertussis and report the most common clinical features among them. RESULTS A positive PCR result for B. pertussis was observed in 20.5% of our samples (18/88), one-third of them were from infants between 2 and 3 months old. The most common symptoms were paroxysms of coughing (88.9%), difficulty breathing (72.2%), cyanosis (77.8%) and fever (50%). The mother was the most common symptomatic carrier (27.8%), followed by uncles/aunts (22.2%) among children with pertussis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juana Del Valle-Mendoza
- Research and Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru. .,Laboratorio de Biología Molecular, Instituto de Investigación Nutricional, Lima, Peru.
| | - Wilmer Silva-Caso
- Research and Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.,Laboratorio de Biología Molecular, Instituto de Investigación Nutricional, Lima, Peru
| | - Miguel Angel Aguilar-Luis
- Research and Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.,Laboratorio de Biología Molecular, Instituto de Investigación Nutricional, Lima, Peru.,Instituto de Investigación de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Lima, Peru
| | - Cristina Del Valle-Vargas
- Instituto de Investigación de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Lima, Peru.,Facultad de Medicina, Univesidad de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Erico Cieza-Mora
- Servicio de Pediatría, Hospital Docente Regional de Salud de Cajamarca, Cajamarca, Peru
| | - Johanna Martins-Luna
- Research and Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
| | - Ronald Aquino-Ortega
- Laboratorio de Biología Molecular, Instituto de Investigación Nutricional, Lima, Peru.,Instituto de Investigación de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Jorge Bazán-Mayra
- Laboratorio de Referencia, Dirección Regional de Salud de Cajamarca (DIRESA), Cajamarca, Peru
| | - Pablo Weilg
- Research and Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.
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Godoy P, García-Cenoz M, Toledo D, Carmona G, Caylà JA, Alsedà M, Àlvarez J, Barrabeig I, Camps N, Plans P, Company M, Castilla J, Sala-Farré MR, Muñoz-Almagro C, Rius C, Domínguez À. Factors influencing the spread of pertussis in households: a prospective study, Catalonia and Navarre, Spain, 2012 to 2013. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017; 21:30393. [PMID: 27918260 PMCID: PMC5144939 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2016.21.45.30393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2015] [Accepted: 02/28/2016] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
We aimed to investigate transmission rates of pertussis in household contacts of cases and factors associated with transmission. A prospective epidemiological study was conducted in 2012 and 2013 to determine the incidence of pertussis among household contacts of reported cases in Catalonia and Navarre, Spain. An epidemiological survey was completed for each case and contact, who were followed for 28 days to determine the source of infection (primary case) and detect the occurrence of secondary cases. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination and chemoprophylaxis in preventing new cases, using the formula (1 − OR) × 100. For the 688 primary cases, a total of 2,852 contacts were recorded. The household transmission rate was 16.1% (459/2,852) and rose according to the age (> 18 years) and lack of immunisation of the primary cases, and also the age (0–18 years), family relationship (siblings and children), lack of vaccination and chemoprophylaxis of contacts. Pertussis vaccine effectiveness in preventing new cases was 65.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.6 to 86.2) for full vaccination (≥ 4 doses) and 59.7% (95% CI: −6.8 to 84.8) for incomplete vaccination (< 4 doses). The effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis was 62.1% (95% CI: 40.3 to 75.9). To reduce household transmission, contacts should be investigated to detect further cases and to administer chemoprophylaxis. The current vaccination status of cases and contacts can reduce household transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pere Godoy
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.,Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Institut de Recerca Biomèdica de Lleida, IRBLleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Manuel García-Cenoz
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Instituto de Salud Pública de Navarra, IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain.,Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Navarre, Spain
| | - Diana Toledo
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Joan A Caylà
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Miquel Alsedà
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.,Institut de Recerca Biomèdica de Lleida, IRBLleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Josep Àlvarez
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Neus Camps
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pere Plans
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.,Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Company
- Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jesús Castilla
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Instituto de Salud Pública de Navarra, IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | | | - Carmen Muñoz-Almagro
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Hospital de Sant Joan de Dèu, Barcelona, Spain.,Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Cristina Rius
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Àngela Domínguez
- Ciber de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain.,Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
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- Members of the group are listed at the end of the article
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5
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Abstract
Pertussis, or whopping cough, is an upper respiratory tract infection caused by Bordetella pertussis. It has long been a concern in pediatric populations, leading to aggressive vaccination strategies to help decrease pediatric disease. In recent years, recognition of pertussis infection in adult populations has increased, leading to more frequent diagnosis and recommendations for booster immunizations in the adult population. Early recognition and treatment as well as vaccination will help reduce the current increase in this disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tara B Spector
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Washington Medical Center, Health Science Building, B-503, 1959 Northeast Pacific Street, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
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Kwon HJ, Yum SK, Choi UY, Lee SY, Kim JH, Kang JH. Infant pertussis and household transmission in Korea. J Korean Med Sci 2012; 27:1547-51. [PMID: 23255856 PMCID: PMC3524436 DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2012.27.12.1547] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2012] [Accepted: 10/01/2012] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
A recent resurgence of pertussis has raised public health concerns even in developed countries with high vaccination coverage. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of infant pertussis, and to determine the relative importance of household transmission in Korea. The multicenter study was prospectively conducted from January 2009 to September 2011. We identified the demographic and clinical data from these patients and performed the diagnostic tests for pertussis in their household contacts. Twenty-one patients with confirmed pertussis were included in the analysis. All infections occurred in infants younger than 6 months of age (mean age, 2.5 months) who had not completed the primary DTaP vaccination except for one patient. Infants without immunization history had a significant higher lymphocytosis and longer duration of hospital stay compared to those with immunization. All were diagnosed with PCR (100%), however, culture tests showed the lowest sensitivity (42.9%). Presumed source of infection in household contacts was documented in 85.7%, mainly parents (52.6%). Pertussis had a major morbidity in young infants who were not fully immunized. Household members were responsible for pertussis transmission of infants in whom a source could be identified. The control of pertussis through booster vaccination with Tdap in family who is taking care of young infants is necessary in Korea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyo Jin Kwon
- Department of Pediatrics, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sook Kyung Yum
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ui Yoon Choi
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Soo Young Lee
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jong Hyun Kim
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jin Han Kang
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
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7
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Torres J, Godoy P, Artigues A, Codina G, Bach P, Mòdol I, Duró MÀ, Trilla C. Brote de tos ferina con elevada tasa de ataque en niños y adolescentes bien vacunados. Enferm Infecc Microbiol Clin 2011; 29:564-7. [DOI: 10.1016/j.eimc.2011.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2010] [Revised: 04/11/2011] [Accepted: 04/29/2011] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Outbreak of atypical pertussis detected by polymerase chain reaction in immunized preschool-aged children. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2009; 28:582-7. [PMID: 19561423 DOI: 10.1097/inf.0b013e318197fac1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND From October 2005 to March 2006, a laboratory-confirmed outbreak of pertussis occurred in preschool-aged children (1-4 years) in Toronto, Canada. A case-control study in children was done to identify the risk factors for being positive for Bordetella pertussis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). METHODS A case was defined as an individual 0 to 18 years of age who tested positive for B. pertussis by PCR in Toronto from October 2005 to March 2006. Each case was matched to 2 controls (negative for B. pertussis by PCR) by: (1) age, (2) geographic region of testing, and (3) date of testing. RESULTS One hundred eighty-nine cases and 296 controls were enrolled. Only 42% of cases (vs. 25% controls, P < 0.0001) met a clinical definition of pertussis, 3 cases (4 controls) were hospitalized, and the secondary household attack rate was 8%. One-third of cases were positive for another respiratory pathogen and >90% of cases and controls were up-to-date with pertussis immunization. Children attending school (matched odds ratio [ORm] = 5.2; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.4-19.0), day care (ORm = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.2-4.0), visiting a doctor's office (ORm = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0-2.5), or exposed to a household member (median age: 4-5 years) with a pertussis-like cough (ORm = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.6) were significantly more likely to have a positive PCR test for B. pertussis. CONCLUSIONS The main risk factors for PCR positivity for B. pertussis were school or day care attendance. Atypical symptoms were likely moderated by high immunization rates or may have been caused by other respiratory pathogens. In some cases, a positive PCR result might simply have reflected transient nasopharyngeal carriage of B. pertussis.
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Hellenbrand W, Beier D, Jensen E, Littmann M, Meyer C, Oppermann H, Wirsing von König CH, Reiter S. The epidemiology of pertussis in Germany: past and present. BMC Infect Dis 2009; 9:22. [PMID: 19243604 PMCID: PMC2653494 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-9-22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2008] [Accepted: 02/25/2009] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current and past pertussis epidemiology in the two parts of Germany is compared in the context of different histories of vaccination recommendations and coverage to better understand patterns of disease transmission. METHODS Available regional pertussis surveillance and vaccination coverage data, supplemented by a literature search for published surveys as well as official national hospital and mortality statistics, were analyzed in the context of respective vaccination recommendations from 1964 onwards. RESULTS Routine childhood pertussis vaccination was recommended in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) from 1964 and in former West German states (FWG) from 1969, but withdrawn from 1974-1991 in FWG. Pertussis incidence declined to <1 case/100,000 inhabitants in GDR prior to reunification in 1991, while in FWG, where pertussis was not notifiable after 1961, incidence was estimated at 160-180 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the 1970s-1980s. Despite recommendations for universal childhood immunization in 1991, vaccination coverage decreased in former East German States (FEG) and increased only slowly in FWG. After introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines in 1995, vaccination coverage increased markedly among younger children, but remains low in adolescents, especially in FWG, despite introduction of a booster vaccination for 9-17 year olds in 2000. Reported pertussis incidence increased in FEG to 39.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2007, with the proportion of adults increasing from 20% in 1995 to 68% in 2007. From 2004-2007, incidence was highest among 5-14 year-old children, with a high proportion fully vaccinated according to official recommendations, which did not include a preschool booster until 2006. Hospital discharge statistics revealed a ~2-fold higher pertussis morbidity among infants in FWG than FEG. CONCLUSION The shift in pertussis morbidity to older age groups observed in FEG is similar to reports from other countries with longstanding vaccination programs and suggests that additional booster vaccination may be necessary beyond adolescence. The high proportion of fully vaccinated cases in older children in FEG suggests waning immunity 5-10 years after primary immunisation in infancy. The higher incidence of pertussis hospitalisations in infants suggests a stronger force of infection in FWG than FEG. Nationwide pertussis reporting is required for better evaluation of transmission patterns and vaccination policy in both parts of Germany.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wiebke Hellenbrand
- Immunisation Division, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
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10
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Gidengil CA, Sandora TJ, Lee GM. Tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccination of adults in the USA. Expert Rev Vaccines 2008; 7:621-34. [PMID: 18564017 DOI: 10.1586/14760584.7.5.621] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Pertussis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality, and its incidence has been increasing in adolescents and adults over the past two decades. Waning immunity in adolescents and adults may be partially responsible. Adults can suffer significant illness from pertussis and its complications, such as pneumonia, rib fractures and syncope. Moreover, adults serve as a source of disease for infants, who are more vulnerable to severe complications and even death. The economic burden of pertussis is substantial, in terms of both medical and nonmedical costs. Fortunately, the burden of pertussis disease can now be safely and effectively reduced by vaccinating adults with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine. Further research is needed to elucidate the role of vaccination in pregnant women and those over 65 years of age, and also to determine whether further booster doses of Tdap are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Courtney A Gidengil
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard Medical School, 300 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
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11
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Abstract
Pertussis, an acute respiratory infection caused by Bordetella pertussis, classically manifests as a protracted cough illness. The incidence of pertussis in the United States has been increasing in recent years. Immunity wanes after childhood vaccination, leaving adolescents and adults susceptible to infection. The transmission of pertussis in health care settings has important medical and economic consequences. Acellular pertussis booster vaccines are now available for use and have been recommended for all adolescents and adults. These vaccines are safe, immunogenic, and effective. Health care workers are a priority group for vaccination because of their increased risk of acquiring infection and the potential to transmit pertussis to high-risk patients. Health care worker vaccination programs are likely to be cost-effective, but further research is needed to determine the acceptability of pertussis vaccines among health care workers, the duration of immunity after booster doses, and the impact of vaccination on the management of pertussis exposures in health care settings.
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13
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Pichichero ME, Blatter MM, Kennedy WA, Hedrick J, Descamps D, Friedland LR. Acellular pertussis vaccine booster combined with diphtheria and tetanus toxoids for adolescents. Pediatrics 2006; 117:1084-93. [PMID: 16585302 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2005-1759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of pertussis is increasing, especially in adolescents, attributed in part to waning of immunity after childhood immunization. Recently licensed in the United States for use in adolescents, acellular pertussis vaccines will provide an immunogenic and safe option for booster immunization against pertussis. METHODS This prospective, randomized, observer-blinded, multicenter, comparative study evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a vaccine formulated with tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis antigens (Tdap) compared with tetanus and diphtheria toxoids vaccine (Td) for booster immunization in adolescents. There were 4114 healthy adolescents aged 10 to 18 years who completed childhood vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis who were enrolled, randomized, and received study vaccine. RESULTS Local and general symptoms were comparable between the Tdap and Td groups. The immune response of Tdap was comparable with Td vaccine for tetanus and diphtheria seroprotection and booster responses. In addition, geometric mean concentrations of antibody to pertussis antigens, pertussis toxoid, filamentous hemagglutinin, and pertactin exceeded the antibody response elicited after infant immunization with diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis antigens (DTaP) that had proven efficacy against pertussis. CONCLUSIONS In adolescents, the studied Tdap was safe and immunogenic and induced pertussis antibodies that were higher than those associated with efficacy in infants.
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14
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Pertussis bei Jugendlichen und Erwachsenen. Monatsschr Kinderheilkd 2005. [DOI: 10.1007/s00112-005-1218-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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15
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Greenberg DP. Pertussis in adolescents: increasing incidence brings attention to the need for booster immunization of adolescents. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2005; 24:721-8. [PMID: 16094229 DOI: 10.1097/01.inf.0000172905.08606.a3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
As a result of waning immunity and improved awareness, the reported incidence of pertussis is increasing among adolescents in the United States. Symptoms of pertussis are often mild and difficult to diagnose in adolescents, but these individuals can transmit the infection to schoolmates and family members, including high risk infants. Improvements in diagnosis and prevention of pertussis in adolescents are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- David P Greenberg
- Scientific and Medical Affairs, sanofi pasteur, Swiftwater, PA 18370, USA.
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16
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Lee GM, Lebaron C, Murphy TV, Lett S, Schauer S, Lieu TA. Pertussis in adolescents and adults: should we vaccinate? Pediatrics 2005; 115:1675-84. [PMID: 15930232 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2004-2509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of reported pertussis among adolescents, adults, and young infants has increased sharply over the past decade. Combined acellular pertussis vaccines for adolescents and adults are available in Canada, Australia, and Germany and may soon be considered for use in the United States. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential health benefits, risks, and costs of a national pertussis vaccination program for adolescents and/or adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION The projected health states and immunity levels associated with pertussis disease and vaccination were simulated with a Markov model. The following strategies were examined from the health care payer and societal perspectives: (1) no vaccination; (2) 1-time adolescent vaccination; (3) 1-time adult vaccination; (4) adult vaccination with boosters; (5) adolescent and adult vaccination with boosters; and (6) postpartum vaccination. Data on disease incidence, costs, outcomes, vaccine efficacy, and adverse events were based on published studies, recent unpublished clinical trials, and expert panel input. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cases prevented, adverse events, costs (in 2004 US dollars), cost per case prevented, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved. RESULTS One-time adolescent vaccination would prevent 30800 cases of pertussis (36% of projected cases) and would result in 91000 vaccine adverse events (67% local reactions). If pertussis vaccination cost $15 and vaccine coverage was 76%, then 1-time adolescent vaccination would cost $1100 per case prevented (or $1200 per case prevented) or $20000 per QALY (or $23000 per QALY) saved, from the societal (or health care payer) perspective. With a threshold of $50000 per QALY saved, the adolescent and adult vaccination with boosters strategy became potentially cost-effective from the societal perspective only if 2 conditions were met simultaneously, ie, (1) the disease incidence for adolescents and adults was > or =6 times higher than base-case assumptions and (2) the cost of vaccination was less than $10. Adult vaccination strategies were more costly and less effective than adolescent vaccination strategies. The results were sensitive to assumptions about disease incidence, vaccine efficacy, frequency of vaccine adverse events, and vaccine costs. CONCLUSIONS Routine pertussis vaccination of adolescents results in net health benefits and may be relatively cost-effective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Grace M Lee
- Center for Child Health Care Studies, Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA.
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Abstract
Antibiotics are commonly used for treating confirmed cases of pertussis and also for disease prevention in outbreak situations, and there is little evidence of antibiotic resistance of Bordetella pertussis. The most commonly used antibiotic is erythromycin, but the associated side effects limit compliance and therefore efficacy. Other antibiotics, such as clarithromycin and azithromycin, have been shown to be at least as effective as erythromycin in preventing and treating pertussis, and they also have fewer side effects, which improves compliance. This article outlines the use of different antibiotics in pertussis management and their effect on preventing disease transmission and reducing disease severity and duration.
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Schellekens J, von König CHW, Gardner P. Pertussis sources of infection and routes of transmission in the vaccination era. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2005; 24:S19-24. [PMID: 15876919 DOI: 10.1097/01.inf.0000160909.24879.e6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Vaccination against pertussis has resulted in reduction of the infection pressure of Bordetella pertussis (partial herd immunity), but the circulation of B. pertussis has persisted as a consequence of waning of vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity. An increase in the reported incidence of B. pertussis infection in older children, adolescents and young adults has been noted, resulting in a perceived resurgence of the disease in these age groups. Regardless of whether this resurgence is real or not, older groups are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in transmitting B. pertussis infection to incompletely immunized infants, in whom pertussis disease continues to cause severe and fatal illness, albeit at much lower levels than in the prevaccine era. Several studies have suggested that mothers, in particular, are a significant source of infection for infants. Adolescents, grandparents and health care workers can also play a role. By contrast, most adolescents acquire the infection from schoolmates and friends, whereas for adults the main sources are children and work colleagues. Furthermore teachers, child care workers and health care workers could be at increased risk of being exposed to, and transmitting, B. pertussis infection. Current immunization strategies inadequately control the circulation of B. pertussis, in part because of suboptimal adherence to current pediatric immunization guidelines. In addition to efforts to improve pertussis immunization rates in children, the expansion of pertussis immunization to target specific groups should be considered. Besides reducing morbidity in the targeted groups, these strategies could decrease the residual burden of pertussis morbidity and mortality in infants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joop Schellekens
- Diagnostic Laboratory for Infectious Diseases and Perinatal Screening, RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
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Forsyth KD, Campins-Marti M, Caro J, Cherry JD, Greenberg D, Guiso N, Heininger U, Schellekens J, Tan T, von König CHW, Plotkin S. New Pertussis Vaccination Strategies beyond Infancy: Recommendations by the Global Pertussis Initiative. Clin Infect Dis 2004; 39:1802-9. [PMID: 15578403 DOI: 10.1086/426020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 133] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2004] [Accepted: 08/19/2004] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Pertussis Initiative, an expert scientific forum, was established to address the ongoing problems associated with pertussis disease worldwide. METHODS The group analyzed pertussis disease trends, developed recommendations to improve disease control through expanded vaccination strategies, and proposed solutions to barriers to implementation and support of research activities. RESULTS Bordetella pertussis infection is endemic and continues to be a serious problem among unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated infants. In addition, the reported incidence of pertussis disease is increasing in adolescents and adults, who not only experience a considerable health burden themselves but also infect vulnerable infants. CONCLUSIONS Current vaccination strategies need to be reinforced. Expanded vaccination should include adding booster doses to existing childhood schedules (preschool or adolescent) and booster doses for those specific adult subgroups that have the highest risk of transmitting B. pertussis infection to infants (i.e., new parents, other contacts of newborns, and health care workers). More epidemiological studies and studies of disease transmission and the cost-effectiveness of vaccination would be valuable, and surveillance, diagnostic improvements, and educational campaigns are needed for implementation. However, as a prelude to universal adult vaccination, immediate universal adolescent vaccination should be instituted in countries in which it is economically feasible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin D Forsyth
- Department of Paediatraics and Child Health, Flinders Medical Center, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
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Abstract
Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common infections in humans, accounting for half of all acute conditions each year in the United States. Acute bronchitis episodes represent a significant portion of these illnesses. This article focuses on acute bronchitis in otherwise healthy individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ralph Gonzales
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, 3333 California Street, Box 1211, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA
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Mikelova LK, Halperin SA, Scheifele D, Smith B, Ford-Jones E, Vaudry W, Jadavji T, Law B, Moore D. Predictors of death in infants hospitalized with pertussis: a case-control study of 16 pertussis deaths in Canada. J Pediatr 2003; 143:576-81. [PMID: 14615725 DOI: 10.1067/s0022-3476(03)00365-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 116] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To describe the clinical course of fatal cases of pertussis and identify predictors of death at the time of presentation for medical care. METHODS Case-control study of 16 deaths from pertussis identified by the Immunization Monitoring Program, Active (IMPACT) surveillance network (January 1991-December 2001) matched with 32 nonfatal cases by age, date, and geography. Differences were compared by Fisher exact test and logistic regression. A multivariate model was developed using stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS All 16 fatal cases were < or =6 months old; 13 were <2 months old. Fatal cases were less likely to have had cough complications during pregnancy (48% vs 14%; P=.046) and more likely to have pneumonia (63% vs 16%; P=.0024) before hospital admission and more likely to have seizures, pneumonia, leukocytosis, and hypoxemia after admission (P<.001 for all comparisons). White blood cell count and pneumonia were independent predictors of fatal outcome in the multivariate model. CONCLUSIONS Infants too young to have begun their immunizations are at highest risk of fatal pertussis infection. Leukocytosis and pneumonia are predictors of a poor outcome; however, rapid progression of the disease may make interventions difficult.
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Chapman TM, Goa KL. Reduced-antigen combined diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine (Boostrix). Drugs 2003; 63:1407-13; discussion: 1415-6. [PMID: 12825963 DOI: 10.2165/00003495-200363130-00005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
The reduced-antigen combined diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine (dTpa) is intended for use as a booster dose in individuals aged > or =4 years. A single dose of dTpa elicited generally similar levels of antibodies against pertussis antigens (pertussis toxoid [PT], filamentous haemagglutinin [FHA] and pertactin [PRN]) as a similar monovalent pertussis booster vaccine (ap) in adolescents or adults, irrespective of their prevaccination serological status or vaccination history. Levels of antibodies directed against diphtheria toxoid were similar in recipients of dTpa or a licensed reduced-antigen combined diphtheria-tetanus booster vaccine (Td). However, levels of antitetanus antibodies were significantly higher in recipients of Td vaccines compared with those receiving dTpa. Similar serological response rates were observed for anti-PT, -FHA and -PRN between those receiving dTpa or ap and a similar high percentage of recipients of dTpa and the Td vaccines had seroprotective levels of antibodies against diphtheria and tetanus toxoid. The most frequently reported local adverse reactions following immunisation with dTpa included pain, redness and swelling; general symptoms included fatigue, headache and fever.
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von König CHW, Halperin S, Riffelmann M, Guiso N. Pertussis of adults and infants. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2002; 2:744-50. [PMID: 12467690 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(02)00452-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 333] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Bordetella pertussis continues to circulate even in populations where a high vaccine coverage of infants and children is achieved. Cases in adolescents and adults are reported with increasing frequency in many countries. Adults are a reservoir for infections in very young infants, in whom pertussis may be severe and life-threatening. The salient clinical feature of pertussis in adolescents and adults is prolonged coughing, and recognising that pertussis does occur in these age groups is the most important step in its diagnosis. A laboratory diagnosis can be made by bordetella-PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs or secretions and by detection of antibodies, mainly to pertussis toxin; laboratory diagnosis is, however, not well standardised. Vaccination of adolescents and adults is now possible with acellular pertussis vaccines, which are well tolerated, immunogenic, and effective. Adolescent boosters and the vaccination of health-care workers are already included in vaccination calendars in some countries. Vaccine-recommending bodies and national health-care organisations must have locally relevant information on the transmission of pertussis from adults to infants to be able to make decisions on the advisability, feasibility, and priority for booster immunisation against pertussis.
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Stevenson M, Beard S, Finn A, Brennan A. Estimating the potential health gain and cost consequences of introducing a pre-school DTPa pertussis booster into the UK child vaccination schedule. Vaccine 2002; 20:1778-86. [PMID: 11906765 DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(02)00025-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
This work estimates the health and cost impacts of a pre-school booster vaccination for Bordetella pertussis, when added to existing UK primary vaccination. A transition state simulation model of pertussis infection in a closed population was constructed comprising of susceptible, infected and immune population sub-groups, across eight age bands. Epidemiological, service use and cost data were sourced from routine statistics, published literature and clinician estimates. The introduction of a pre-school booster is predicted to reduce the number of hospitalisations by approximately 1400 and pertussis cases suffered by up to 28,000 at a net investment of under 13 million pounds over a 5-year period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matt Stevenson
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S1 4DA, UK.
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Campins-Martí M, Cheng HK, Forsyth K, Guiso N, Halperin S, Huang LM, Mertsola J, Oselka G, Ward J, Wirsing von König CH, Zepp F. Recommendations are needed for adolescent and adult pertussis immunisation: rationale and strategies for consideration. Vaccine 2001; 20:641-6. [PMID: 11738728 DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(01)00393-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 100] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Pertussis vaccination of infants has dramatically reduced disease, complications and deaths in infancy and early childhood. But there is still a major public health challenge--to deal with the morbidity and economic burden of illness in older children, adolescents and adults. Furthermore, it is these groups that form a major source of infection for non-immunised and partially immunised infants who are at high risk of severe complications. Adult-type acellular pertussis vaccine confers safe and effective protection against pertussis. There are several strategies to consider for immunising older individuals. Universal vaccination of all age groups would be the best available strategy for protecting individuals. It would also reduce the potential for transmitting the disease to other susceptibles, particularly infants. However, such a policy may be difficult both logistically and economically at this time. More easily achievable as a first step would be a strategy of universal adolescent booster vaccination combined with a programme targeted at adults most likely to have contact with very young babies including healthcare and childcare workers, parents and close family contacts. There is also potential for offering vaccination to adults (and their carers and close contacts) whose medical conditions or advanced age may place them at increased risk of more severe pertussis disease. Specific details of immunisation programmes must be made on a country by country basis depending on local circumstances.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Campins-Martí
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Vall d'Hebron Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
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Weber DJ, Rutala WA. Pertussis: a continuing hazard for healthcare facilities. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2001; 22:736-40. [PMID: 11876450 DOI: 10.1086/501856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Gonzales R, Bartlett JG, Besser RE, Cooper RJ, Hickner JM, Hoffman JR, Sande MA. Principles of appropriate antibiotic use for treatment of uncomplicated acute bronchitis: background. Ann Emerg Med 2001. [PMID: 11385346 PMCID: PMC7132523 DOI: 10.1067/s0196-0644(01)70091-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
The following principles of appropriate antibiotic use for adults with acute bronchitis apply to immunocompetent adults without complicating comorbid conditions, such as chronic lung or heart disease.The evaluation of adults with an acute cough illness or a presumptive diagnosis of uncomplicated acute bronchitis should focus on ruling out serious illness, particularly pneumonia. In healthy, nonelderly adults, pneumonia is uncommon in the absence of vital sign abnormalities or asymmetrical lung sounds, and chest radiography is usually not indicated. In patients with cough lasting 3 weeks or longer, chest radiography may be warranted in the absence of other known causes. Routine antibiotic treatment of uncomplicated acute bronchitis is not recommended, regardless of duration of cough. If pertussis infection is suspected (an unusual circumstance), a diagnostic test should be performed and antimicrobial therapy initiated. Patient satisfaction with care for acute bronchitis depends most on physician–patient communication rather than on antibiotic treatment.
[Gonzales R, Bartlett JG, Besser RE, Cooper RJ, Hickner JM, Hoffman JR, Sande MA. Principles of appropriate antibiotic use for treatment of uncomplicated acute bronchitis: background. Ann Emerg Med. June 2001;37:720-727.]
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Affiliation(s)
- R Gonzales
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver, 80262, USA
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