A model for the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido, Japan

Ecoepidemic modeling and dynamics of alveolar echinococcosis transmission

Alveolar echinococcosis, transmitted between definitive hosts and intermediate hosts via predation, threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses in western China. In order to explore the transmission mechanism of this disease, an eco-epidemiological lifecycle model is formulated to illustrate interactions between two hosts. The basic and demographic reproduction numbers are developed to characterize the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria as well as bifurcation dynamics. The existence of forward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are confirmed and are used to explain the threshold transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations and bifurcation diagrams are also presented to depict rich dynamics of the model. Numerical analysis suggests that improving the control rate of voles will reduce the risk of transmission, while the high predation rate of foxes may also lead to a lower transmission risk, which is different from the predictions of previous studies. The evaluation of three control measures on voles implies that, when the fox's predation rate is low (high), the chemical (integrated) control will be more effective.

Wind-borne dispersion of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs - a flight model

The alveolar hydatid disease, also known as alveolar echinococcosis, of humans is certainly one of the most dangerous zoonoses worldwide. The disease is caused by Echinococcus multilocularis - the fox tapeworm. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are currently counted as the most important carriers (reservoirs) of E. multilocularis in the Northern Hemisphere. The possible routes of infection of E. multilocularis to humans are complex and still require research. Until now, it has been unknown whether E. multilocularis eggs can be moved by wind at all. This analysis shows, based on calculations, that E. multilocularis eggs can be transported by wind. Using a mathematical model, flight distances depending on wind speed and take-off heights are calculated for dense and less dense (coniferous) forest areas. The results - differentiated for seasons and as overall average - are based on mean values of wind speeds which were measured over a ten-year period in an experimental forest stand in the Solling (Germany). Due to their rate of descent, wind-related spreading of E. multilocularis eggs is possible. The average flight distance covered by E. multilocularis eggs in forest areas, depending on their starting altitude and wind speed, is between approximately 1.3 m and approximately 17 m. From the mathematical point of view, the wind factor can definitely be seen as one of the multiple vectors associated with environmental contamination by E. multilocularis eggs. Consequently, the possible wind-borne spread of E. multilocularis eggs poses an infection risk to humans that should be considered and requires further research.

Prevalence and spatial distribution patterns of human echinococcosis at the township level in Sichuan Province, China

Background

Echinococcosis is a global zoonotic parasitic disease caused by Echinococcus larvae. This disease is highly endemic in Sichuan Province, China. This study investigates the prevalence and spatial distribution characteristics of human echinococcosis at the township level in Sichuan Province, geared towards providing a future reference for the development of precise prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Human prevalence of echinococcosis was evaluated using the B-ultrasonography diagnostic method in Sichuan Province between 2016 and 2019. All data were collected, collated, and analyzed. A spatial distribution map was drawn to intuitively analyze the spatial distribution features. Eventually, the spatial autocorrelation was specified and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) clustering map was drawn to investigate the spatial aggregation of echinococcosis at the township level in Sichuan Province.

Results

The prevalence of echinococcosis in humans of Sichuan Province was 0.462%, among which the occurrence of cystic echinococcosis (CE) was 0.221%, while that of alveolar echinococcosis (AE) was 0.244%. Based on the results of the spatial distribution map, a predominance of echinococcosis in humans decreased gradually from west to east and from north to south. The Global Moran’s I index was 0.77 (Z = 32.07, P < 0.05), indicating that the prevalence of echinococcosis in humans was spatially clustered, exhibiting a significant spatial positive correlation. Further, the findings of local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the “high–high” concentration areas were primarily located in some townships in the northwest of Sichuan Province. However, the “low–low” concentration areas were predominantly located in some townships in the southeast of Sichuan Province.

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrated that the prevalence of echinococcosis in humans of Sichuan Province follows a downward trend, suggesting that the current prevention and control work has achieved substantial outcomes. Nevertheless, the prevalence in humans at the township level is widely distributed and differs significantly, with a clear clustering in space. Therefore, precise prevention and control strategies should be formulated for clusters, specifically strengthening the “high–high” clusters at the township level.

Graphic Abstract

Zoonotic transmission of intestinal helminths in southeast Asia: Implications for control and elimination

Intestinal helminths are extremely widespread and highly prevalent infections of humans, particularly in rural and poor urban areas of low and middle-income countries. These parasites have chronic and often insidious effects on human health and child development including abdominal problems, anaemia, stunting and wasting. Certain animals play a fundamental role in the transmission of many intestinal helminths to humans. However, the contribution of zoonotic transmission to the overall burden of human intestinal helminth infection and the relative importance of different animal reservoirs remains incomplete. Moreover, control programmes and transmission models for intestinal helminths often do not consider the role of zoonotic reservoirs of infection. Such reservoirs will become increasingly important as control is scaled up and there is a move towards interruption and even elimination of parasite transmission. With a focus on southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this review summarises the major zoonotic intestinal helminths, risk factors for infection and highlights knowledge gaps related to their epidemiology and transmission. Various methodologies are discussed, including parasite genomics, mathematical modelling and socio-economic analysis, that could be employed to improve understanding of intestinal helminth spread, reservoir attribution and the burden associated with infection, as well as assess effectiveness of interventions. For sustainable control and ultimately elimination of intestinal helminths, there is a need to move beyond scheduled mass deworming and to consider animal and environmental reservoirs. A One Health approach to control of intestinal helminths is proposed, integrating interventions targeting humans, animals and the environment, including improved access to water, hygiene and sanitation. This will require coordination and collaboration across different sectors to achieve best health outcomes for all.

Mathematical Global Dynamics and Control Strategies on Echinococcus multilocularis Infection

Echinococcus multilocularis, a major cause of echinococcosis in human, is a parasitic sylvatic disease between two major hosts in a predator-prey relation. A new model for the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus multilocularis in the population of red foxes and voles with environment as a source of infection is formulated and rigorously analyzed. The model is used to access the impact of treatment on red foxes and environmental disinfection as control strategies on the disease dynamics. The control reproduction number is computed and is used to rigorously prove the local and global dynamics of models' equilibria. Using available data on Echinococcus, elasticity indices and partial rank correlation coefficients of control reproduction number and cumulative new cases in red foxes and voles are computed. Parameters that have high influence locally and globally are identified. Numerical experiments indicate that administering disinfection of environment only induces more positive impact than applying treatment only on red foxes in controlling the infection. Generally, interventions towards treating red foxes and environmental disinfection could be sufficient in tackling transmission of disease in the populations.

Strategies for tackling Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis: A systematic review and comparison of transmission models, including an assessment of the wider Taeniidae family transmission models

Background

The cestode Taenia solium causes the neglected (zoonotic) tropical disease cysticercosis, a leading cause of preventable epilepsy in endemic low and middle-income countries. Transmission models can inform current scaling-up of control efforts by helping to identify, validate and optimise control and elimination strategies as proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Methodology/Principal findings

A systematic literature search was conducted using the PRISMA approach to identify and compare existing T. solium transmission models, and related Taeniidae infection transmission models. In total, 28 modelling papers were identified, of which four modelled T. solium exclusively. Different modelling approaches for T. solium included deterministic, Reed-Frost, individual-based, decision-tree, and conceptual frameworks. Simulated interventions across models agreed on the importance of coverage for impactful effectiveness to be achieved.

Other Taeniidae infection transmission models comprised force-of-infection (FoI), population-based (mainly Echinococcus granulosus) and individual-based (mainly E. multilocularis) modelling approaches. Spatial structure has also been incorporated (E. multilocularis and Taenia ovis) in recognition of spatial aggregation of parasite eggs in the environment and movement of wild animal host populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Gaps identified from examining the wider Taeniidae family models highlighted the potential role of FoI modelling to inform model parameterisation, as well as the need for spatial modelling and suitable structuring of interventions as key areas for future T. solium model development. We conclude that working with field partners to address data gaps and conducting cross-model validation with baseline and longitudinal data will be critical to building consensus-led and epidemiological setting-appropriate intervention strategies to help fulfil the WHO targets.

Taenia solium infection in humans (taeniosis and neurocysticercosis) and pigs (cysticercosis) presents a significant global public health and economic challenge. The World Health Organization has called for validated strategies and wider consensus on which strategies are suitable for different epidemiological settings to support successful T. solium control and elimination efforts. Transmission models can be used to inform these strategies. Therefore, a modelling review was undertaken to assess the current state and gaps relating to T. solium epidemiological modelling. The literature surrounding models for other Taeniidae family infections was also considered, identifying approaches to aid further development of existing T. solium models. A variety of different modelling approaches have been used for T. solium including differences in structural and parametric assumptions associated with T. solium transmission biology. Despite these differences, all models agreed on the importance of coverage on intervention effectiveness. Other Taeniidae family models highlighted the need for incorporating spatial structure when necessary to capture aggregation of transmission stages in the environment and movement of animal hosts.

Simulating control of a focal wildlife outbreak of Echinococcus multilocularis

The parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a serious zoonotic infection present in Europe that can be fatal. The United Kingdom currently has E. multilocularis free status but the possibility of introduction exists, most likely via an imported or returning dog or other deliberately introduced animal that has not had anthelmintic treatment. We have developed a model to predict the probability of successfully eliminating a focal outbreak of E. multilocularis using a programme of anthelmintic bait distribution. We investigated three different potential control programmes, each with 36 monthly campaigns commencing five, ten or 15 years after disease introduction over an area of 2827km². We assumed equilibrium disease prevalence of 30%, 40% and 55% based on the range of values reported across Europe. However, for all of these scenarios, equilibrium had not been reached at five to 15 years after introduction and simulated local prevalence values were between 0.5% and 28%. We found that it is possible to eliminate the disease with a 38%-86% success rate if control is started five years after introduction, dropping to 0% to 56% if control is delayed until 15 years after introduction, depending upon the prevalence equilibrium. We have also estimated the costs involved in these programmes to be from €7 to €12 million (2013 prices).

Echinococcosis: Control and Prevention

Human cystic echinococcosis (CE) has been eliminated or significantly reduced as a public health problem in several previously highly endemic regions. This has been achieved by the long-term application of prevention and control measures primarily targeted to deworming dogs, health education, meat inspection, and effective surveillance in livestock and human populations. Human CE, however, remains a serious neglected zoonotic disease in many resource-poor pastoral regions. The incidence of human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) has increased in continental Europe and is a major public health problem in parts of Eurasia. Better understanding of wildlife ecology for fox and small mammal hosts has enabled targeted anthelmintic baiting of fox populations and development of spatially explicit models to predict population dynamics for key intermediate host species and human AE risk in endemic landscapes. Challenges that remain for echinococcosis control include effective intervention in resource-poor communities, better availability of surveillance tools, optimal application of livestock vaccination, and management and ecology of dog and wildlife host populations.

Competence of hosts and complex foraging behavior are two cornerstones in the dynamics of trophically transmitted parasites

Multi-host trophically transmitted parasite (TTP) is a common life cycle where prey and predators are respectively intermediate and definitive hosts of the parasite. In these systems, the foraging response of the predator toward variations in prey community composition underlies the dynamic of the parasite. Therefore, modeling epidemiological dynamic of infectious diseases considering ecological predator-prey interactions is essential to understand the spreading of parasites in ecosystems. However, two important weaknesses of previous TTP models including feeding interaction can be pointed out: (i) the choice of a linear density-dependent contact rate is faintly realistic as it supposes an unlimited ingestion rate with an increase of prey density and (ii) considering only one host prey species prevents the study of host biodiversity effect due to change in the prey community composition where species have different competences to be infected and to transmit the parasite. This article attempts to address the dynamics of parasite in a context of multiple intermediate hosts differentiated by their competences and of complex foraging behavior of the predator. We present and analyze a deterministic one predator-two prey model, which is then used to explore the transmission cycle of the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis. This study examines the foraging condition for the co-existence of the prey, and then, based on the computation of the threshold measure of disease risk, R0, we show that the pattern of feeding interactions changes the relationship between disease risk and prey community composition. Finally, we disentangle the mechanism leading to the counter-intuitive observation of a decrease of disease risk while the population density of intermediate hosts increases.

Dynamics of the force of infection: insights from Echinococcus multilocularis infection in foxes

Characterizing the force of infection (FOI) is an essential part of planning cost effective control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis in humans, a serious disease with a high fatality rate and an increasing global spread. Red foxes are high prevalence hosts of E. multilocularis. Through a mathematical modelling approach, using field data collected from in and around the city of Zurich, Switzerland, we find compelling evidence that the FOI is periodic with highly variable amplitude, and, while this amplitude is similar across habitat types, the mean FOI differs markedly between urban and periurban habitats suggesting a considerable risk differential. The FOI, during an annual cycle, ranges from (0.1,0.8) insults (95% CI) in urban habitat in the summer to (9.4, 9.7) (95% CI) in periurban (rural) habitat in winter. Such large temporal and spatial variations in FOI suggest that control strategies are optimal when tailored to local FOI dynamics.

Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is caused by the fox tapeworm E. multilocularis and has a high fatality rate if untreated. The frequency of the tapeworm in foxes can be reduced through the regular distribution of anthelmintic baits and thus decrease the risk of zoonotic transmission. Here, we estimate the force of infection to foxes using a mathematical model and data from necropsied foxes. The results suggest that the frequency of anthelmintic baiting of foxes can be optimised to local variations in transmission that depend upon season and type of fox habitat.

Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission

BACKGROUND

Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1) the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2) an age structure for animal hosts; 3) the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4) accounting for seasonality; 5) stochastic parameters; and 6) inclusion of spatial and risk structures.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This review discusses the conditions under which these mechanisms may be important for inclusion in models of Echinococcus transmission and proposes recommendations for the design of dynamic human models of transmission. Accounting for the dynamic behaviour of the Echinococcus parasites in humans will be key to predicting changes in the disease burden over time and to simulate control strategies that optimise public health impact.

Optimal risk management of human alveolar echinococcosis with vermifuge

In this study, we develop a bioeconomic model of human alveolar echinococcosis (HAE) and formulate the optimal strategies for managing the infection risks in humans by applying optimal control theory. The model has the following novel features: (i) the complex transmission cycle of HAE has been tractably incorporated into the framework of optimal control problems and (ii) the volume of vermifuge spreading to manage the risk is considered a control variable. With this model, we first obtain the stability conditions for the transmission dynamics under the condition of constant control. Second, we explicitly introduce a control variable of vermifuge spreading into the analysis by considering the associated control costs. In this optimal control problem, we have successfully derived a set of conditions for a bang-bang control and singular control, which are mainly characterized by the prevalence of infection in voles and foxes and the remaining time of control. The analytical results are demonstrated by numerical analysis and we discuss the effects of the parameter values on the optimal strategy and the transmission cycle. We find that when the prevalence of infection in foxes is low and the prevalence of infection in voles is sufficiently high, the optimal strategy is to expend no effort in vermifuge spreading.

A stochastic model of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in Hokkaido, Japan, focusing on the infection process

Echinococcus multilocularis causes human alveolar echinococcus. In Japan, high prevalence of E. multilocularis among the fox population has been reported throughout Hokkaido. Accordingly, control measures, such as fox hunting and the distribution of bait containing Praziquantel, have been conducted. This study developed a transmission model for individuals in the fox population and included a stochastic infection process to assess the prevalence of E. multilocularis. To make our model realistic, we used the worm burden for each individual in the fox population. We assumed that the worm burden depends on the number of protoscoleces in a predated vole and the number of infection experiences. We carried out stochastic simulations with 1,000 trials for the situations of Koshimizu and Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan. The distribution of the worm burden among foxes obtained using the model agreed with dissection data. The simulation indicates that a careful choice of season is necessary for an effective distribution of Praziquantel-containing bait. A stochastic model for E. multilocularis, which can assess the range of the prevalence in the fox population, would be helpful in analyzing their complex life-cycle and also in designing control strategies.

Mathematical modeling of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission

A mathematical model for the transmission cycle of Echinococcus multilocularis would be useful for estimating its prevalence, and the model simulation can be instrumental in designing various control strategies. This review focuses on the epidemiological factors in the E. multilocularis transmission cycle and the recent advances of mathematical models for E. multilocularis transmission.

Modeling the transmission of Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis in dogs for a high endemic region of the Tibetan plateau

Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis abundance and prevalence data, for domestic dogs of Shiqu County, Sichuan Province, People's Republic of China, were fitted to mathematical models to evaluate transmission parameters. Abundance models, assuming the presence and absence of immunity, were fit for both E. granulosus and E. multilocularis using Bayesian priors, maximum likelihood, and Monte Carlo sampling techniques. When the models were compared, using the likelihood ratio test for nested models, the model assuming the presence of immunity was the best fit for E. granulosus infection, with a purgation based prevalence of 8% (true prevalence interval of 8-19% based on the sensitivity of purgation) and a mean abundance of 80 parasites per dog, with an average infection pressure of 560 parasites per year. In contrast, the model assuming the absence of immunity was the best fit for E. multilocularis infection, with a purgation based prevalence of 12% (true prevalence interval of 13-33% based on the sensitivity of purgation) and a mean abundance of 131 parasites per dog, with an average infection pressure of 334 or 533 parasites per year assuming a 5 or 3 month parasite life expectancy, respectively. The prevalence data for both parasites was then fit to a set of differential equations modeling the transition between infection states in order to determine number of infectious insults per year. Infection pressure was 0.21, with a 95% credibility interval of 0.12 to 0.41, infections per year for E. granulosus and 0.52, with a 95% credibility interval of 0.29-0.77, infections per year for E. multilocularis assuming a 5 month parasite lifespan or 0.85, with a 95% credibility interval of 0.47-1.25 infections per year, assuming a 3 month E. multilocularis lifespan in dogs.