Relative importance of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity for butterfly population dynamics

Weak evidence of density dependent population regulation when using the ability of two simple density dependent models to predict population size

The relative importance of density dependence regulation in natural population fluctuations has long been debated. The concept of density dependence implies that current abundance is determined by historical abundance. We have developed four models-two density dependent and two density independent-to predict population size one year beyond the training set and used predictive performance on more than 16,000 populations from 14 datasets to compare the understanding captured by those models. For 4 of 14 datasets the density dependent models make better predictions (i.e., density dependent regulated) than either of the density independent models. However, neither of the density dependent models is statistically significantly superior to density independent models for any of the 14 datasets. We conclude that the evidence for widespread density dependent population regulation in the forms represented by these two simple density-dependent models is weak. However, the density dependent models used here-the Logistic and Gompertz models-are simple representations of how population density might regulate natural populations and only examine density-dependent effects on population size. A comprehensive assessment of the relative importance of density-dependent population regulation will require testing the predictive ability of a wider range of density-dependent models including models examining effects on population characteristics other than population size.

Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921-2021) with spatial econometrics

Testing density-dependence and path-dependence in long-term population dynamics under differentiated local contexts contributes to delineate the changing role of socioeconomic forces at the base of regional disparities. Despite a millenary settlement history, such issue has been rarely investigated in Europe, and especially in highly divided countries such as those in the Mediterranean region. Using econometric modeling to manage spatial heterogeneity, our study verifies the role of selected drivers of population growth at ten times between 1921 and 2021 in more than 8000 Italian municipalities verifying density-dependent and path-dependent dynamics. Results of global and quantile (spatial) regressions highlight a differential impact of density and (lagged) population growth on demographic dynamics along the urban cycle in Italy. Being weakly significant in the inter-war period (1921-1951), econometric models totalized a high goodness-of-fit in correspondence with compact urbanization (1951-1981). Model's fit declined in the following decades (1981-2021) reflecting suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Density-dependence and path-dependence were found significant and, respectively, positive or negative, with compact urbanization, and much less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization. A spatial econometric investigation of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population dynamics provided an original explanation of metropolitan cycles, delineating the evolution of socioeconomic (local) systems along the urban-rural gradient.

Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly

Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.

The Pattern of Social Parasitism in Maculinea teleius Butterfly Is Driven by the Size and Spatial Distribution of the Host Ant Nests

The parasitic relationship between Maculinea butterflies and Myrmica ants has been extensively studied but little information is available on the spatial occurrence of Maculinea larvae. We searched for the presence of Maculinea teleius in 211 ant nests at two sites in two crucial phases of its life cycle, i.e., in autumn, during the initial larval development, and in the following late spring, before pupation. We assessed variations in the proportion of infested nests and factors correlated with spatial distributions of parasites in Myrmica colonies. The parasitism rate in autumn was very high (∼50% of infestation rate) but decreased in the following spring. The most important factor explaining parasite occurrence in both seasons was the nest size. Further factors, such as the presence of other parasites, the Myrmica species or the site, concurred to explain the differential survival of Ma. teleius until the final development. Irrespective of the host nest distribution, the parasite distribution changed from even in autumn to clumped in late spring. Our work showed that the survival of Ma. teleius is correlated with colony features but also with the nest spatial distribution, which therefore should be taken into consideration in conservation strategies aiming at preserving these endangered species.

Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania

Background

It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized Anopheles gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will: (1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, (2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and (3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may differ from that of An. gambiae sensu lato.

Methods

A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus sensu stricto collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. The effects of density dependence and seasonality were measured through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates.

Results

The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An. funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations.

Conclusion

The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04189-4.

Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species' life-cycles and extreme climatic events

Understanding population responses to environmental conditions is key in the current context of climate change and the extreme climatic events that are threatening biodiversity in an unprecedented way. In this work, we provide a framework for understanding butterfly population responses to weather and extreme climatic seasons by taking into account topographic heterogeneity, species' life-cycles and density-dependent processes. We used a citizen-science database of Mediterranean butterflies that contains long-term population data (28 years) on 78 butterfly species from 146 sites in the Mediterranean mesic and alpine climate regions. Climatic data were obtained from 93 meteorological stations operating during this period near the butterfly sites. We studied how seasonal precipitation and temperature affect population growth while taking into account the effects of density dependence. Our results reveal (i) the beneficial effects of winter and spring precipitation for butterfly populations, which are most evident in the Mediterranean region and in univoltine species, and mainly affect the larval stage; (ii) a general negative effect of summer rain in the previous year, which affects the adult stage; and (iii) a consistent negative effect of mild autumns and winters on population growth. In addition, density dependence played a major role in the population dynamics of most species, except for those with long-term negative population trends. Our analyses also provide compelling evidence that both extreme population levels in previous years and extreme climatic seasons in the current year provoke population crashes and explosions, especially in the Mediterranean mesic region.

Population dynamics of the glacial relict amphipods in a subarctic lake: role of density-dependent and density-independent factors

Relative role of intrinsic density-dependent factors (such as inter- and intraspecific competition, predation) and extrinsic density-independent factors (environmental changes) in population dynamics is a key issue in ecology. Density-dependent mechanisms are considered as important drivers of population dynamics in many vertebrate and insect species; however, their influence on the population dynamics of freshwater invertebrates is not clearly understood. In this study, I examined interannual variations in the abundance of the glacial relict amphipod Monoporeia affinis in a small subarctic lake based on long-term (2002-2019) monitoring data. The results suggest that the population dynamics of amphipods in the lake is influenced by the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The reproductive success of amphipod cohorts was inversely related to its initial abundance, indicating it is influenced by density-dependent factors. M. affinis recruitment was negatively correlated with population density and near-bottom temperature but positively correlated with food availability, which is defined as the concentration of chlorophyll a. Multiple regression with chlorophyll, temperature, and abundance of parent cohort as independent factors explained about 80% of the variation in the reproductive success of amphipods. The negative correlation between amphipod recruitment and water temperature indicates that the current climate conditions adversely affect the populations of glacial relict amphipods even in cold-water lakes of the subarctic zone. Results of this study can be useful in environmental assessments to separate population oscillations connected with density-dependent mechanisms from human-mediated changes.

Persistence of a reef fish metapopulation via network connectivity: theory and data

Determining metapopulation persistence requires understanding both demographic rates and patch connectivity. Persistence is well understood in theory but has proved challenging to test empirically for marine and other species with high connectivity that precludes classic colonisation-extinction dynamics. Here, we assessed persistence for a yellowtail anemonefish (Amphiprion clarkii) metapopulation using 7 years of annual sampling data along 30 km of coastline. We carefully accounted for uncertainty in demographic rates. Despite stable population abundances through time and sufficient production of surviving offspring for replacement, the pattern of connectivity made the metapopulation unlikely to persist in isolation and reliant on immigrants from outside habitat. To persist in isolation, the metapopulation would need higher fecundity or to retain essentially all recruits produced. This assessment of persistence in a marine metapopulation shows that stable abundance alone does not indicate persistence, emphasising the necessity of assessing both demographic and connectivity processes to understand metapopulation dynamics.

A Unique Population in a Unique Area: The Alcon Blue Butterfly and Its Specific Parasitoid in the Białowieża Forest

Caterpillars of the Alcon blue butterfly Phengaris alcon are initially endophytic and feed inside the flowerheads of Gentiana plants, but complete their development as social parasites in the nests of Myrmica ants, where they are fed by workers. Its specific and complicated ecological requirements make P. alcon a very local, threatened species, sensitive to environmental changes. We investigated an isolated and previously unknown population in an area of high nature value-the Białowieża Forest (NE Poland). Using the mark-release-recapture method we estimated the seasonal number of adults at 1460 individuals, and their density (850/ha) was the highest among all populations using G. pneumonanthe studied so far. The site is also unique due to the presence of the specific parasitoid Ichneumon cf. eumerus, and parasitoids are considered the ultimate indicators of the biodiversity of Phengaris systems. Since 75.5% of P. alcon pupae were infested we could estimate the seasonal population of adult wasps at about 4500 individuals. The high abundance of both P. alcon and its parasitoid may be explained by favorable habitat characteristics, i.e., the strong presence of host plants and the high density of nests of Myrmica scabrinodis, which is the only local host ant of the butterfly.

Intersexual differences in density-dependent dispersal and their evolutionary drivers

Dispersal is well recognized as a major driver of evolutionary processes in local populations. Nevertheless, dispersal abilities should also be perceived as a life-history trait, being subject to evolutionary changes in response to various drivers. Empirical studies investigating these drivers rarely consider that they may influence male and female dispersal differently. The purpose of our study was to document intersexual differences in density-dependent emigration from local habitat patches. As a model system, we used a metapopulation of Maculinea (Phengaris) teleius butterfly, in which densities of both sexes vary greatly throughout the flying season. Following intensive mark-release-recapture surveys, the parameters and predictors of dispersal were analysed with the Virtual Migration model and the multi-state recapture model. The emigration rate in males was substantially higher in the early season, especially at smaller habitat patches. With the proportion of females increasing with the season progression, males became reluctant to emigrate from their natal patches. In turn, higher female emigration in the later part of the season was most strongly associated with female tendency to reduce intraspecific competition experienced by their offspring. Our findings provide evidence for the impact of reproductive strategies on dispersal in both sexes. The difference in reproductive strategies of males and females explains sex-biased dispersal in different parts of the season, which carries important implications for metapopulation functioning.

The Microbiome of the Maculinea-Myrmica Host-Parasite Interaction

Maculinea (=Phengaris) are endangered butterflies that are characterized by a very complex biological cycle. Maculinea larvae behave as obligate parasites whose survival is strictly dependent on both particular food plants and species-specific Myrmica ants. In this interaction, Maculinea caterpillars induce Myrmica workers to retrieve and rear them in the nest by chemical and acoustic deception. Social insect symbiotic microorganisms play a key role in intraspecific and interspecific communication; therefore, it is possible that the Maculinea caterpillar microbiome might be involved in the chemical cross-talk by producing deceptive semiochemicals for host ants. To address this point, the microbiota of Maculinea alcon at different larval stages (phytophagous early larvae, intermediate larvae, carnivorous late larvae) was analyzed by using 16S rRNA-guided metabarcoding approach and compared to that of the host ant Myrmica scabrinodis. Structural and deduced functional profiles of the microbial communities were recorded, which were used to identify specific groups of microorganisms that may be involved in the chemical cross-talk. One of the most notable features was the presence in all larval stages and in the ants of two bacteria, Serratia marcescens and S. entomophila, which are involved in the chemical cross-talk between the microbes and their hosts.

Dispersal and adaptation strategies of the high mountain butterfly Boloria pales in the Romanian Carpathians

Background

Habitat quality is one main trigger for the persistence of butterflies. The effects of the influencing biotic and abiotic factors may be enhanced by the challenging conditions in high-alpine environments. To better our knowledge in this field, we performed a mark-release-recapture study with Boloria pales in the Southern Carpathians.

Methods

We analysed population structure, movement and foraging behaviour to investigate special adaptations to the alpine environment and to reveal differences between sexes. We compared these aspects in one sector with and one sector without grazing to address the effects of grazing intensity on habitat quality.

Results

We observed "soft" protandry, in which only a small number of males appeared before females, and an extended emergence of individuals over the observed flight period, dividing the population's age structure into three phases; both observations are considered adaptations to high mountain environments. Although both sexes were mostly sedentary, movement differences between them were obvious. Males flew larger distances than females and were more flight-active. This might explain the dimorphism in foraging behaviour: males preferred nectar sources of Asteraceae, females Caprifoliaceae. Transition from the grazed to the ungrazed sector was only observed for males and not for females, but the population density was higher and the flight distances of the individuals were significantly longer on the grazed sector compared with the ungrazed one.

Conclusion

Soft protandry, an extended emergence of the individuals and an adapted behavioural dimorphism between sexes render to represent a good adaptation of B. pales to the harsh environmental conditions of high mountain ecosystems. However, land-use intensity apparently has severe influence on population densities and movement behaviour. To protect B. pales and other high-alpine species from the negative consequences of overgrazing, areas without or just light grazing are needed.

Effects of Host Interspecific Interaction in the Maculinea-Myrmica Parasite-Host System

A model of interspecific host competition in a system with one parasite (butterfly-Maculinea) and multiple potential hosts (ants-Myrmica) is presented. Results indicate that host interspecific competition increases the occurrence of multiple host behaviour in Maculinea natural populations but decreases the ability of the parasite populations to adapt to the most abundant host species. These qualitative predictions were compared with data on host specificity, with good agreement. Analysis of the data also indicates that Maculinea teleius and Maculinea arion respond differently to changes in relative host abundances. Maculinea teleius shows a larger fraction of sites where it displays multiple host behaviour and a larger fraction of sites where the niches of the hosts overlap. In some instances, Maculinea teleius is adapted to Myrmica hosts that are present in lower frequencies. Maculinea arion is locally more host-specific and occurs at sites where host interspecific competition is unlikely and is more frequently adapted to the most abundant host species.

Mechanism matters: the cause of fluctuations in boom-bust populations governs optimal habitat restoration strategy

Many populations exhibit boom-bust dynamics in which abundance fluctuates dramatically over time. Past research has focused on identifying whether the cause of fluctuations is primarily exogenous, e.g., environmental stochasticity coupled with weak density dependence, or endogenous, e.g., over-compensatory density dependence. Far fewer studies have addressed whether the mechanism responsible for boom-bust dynamics matters with respect to at-risk species management. Here, we ask whether the best strategy for restoring habitat across a landscape differs under exogenously vs. endogenously driven boom-bust dynamics. We used spatially explicit individual-based models to assess how butterfly populations governed by the two mechanisms would respond to habitat restoration strategies that varied in the level of resource patchiness, from a single large patch to multiple patches spaced at different distances. Our models showed that the restoration strategy that minimized extinction risk and boom-bust dynamics would be markedly different depending on the governing mechanism. Exogenously governed populations fared best in a single large habitat patch, whereas for endogenously driven populations, boom-bust dynamics were dampened and extinction risk declined when the total restored area was split into multiple patches with low to moderate inter-patch spacing. Adding environmental stochasticity to the endogenous model did not alter this result. Habitat fragmentation lowered extinction risk in the endogenously driven populations by reducing their growth rate, precluding both "boom" phases and, more importantly, "bust" phases. Our findings suggest that (1) successful restoration will depend on understanding the causes of fluctuations in at-risk populations, (2) the level and pattern of spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity will also affect the ideal management approach, and (3) counterintuitively, for at-risk species with endogenously governed boom-bust dynamics, lowering the intrinsic population growth rate may decrease extinction risk.

The role of density-dependent and -independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild.

Relative Contribution of Matrix Structure, Patch Resources and Management to the Local Densities of Two Large Blue Butterfly Species

The type of matrix, the landscape surrounding habitat patches, may determine the distribution and function of local populations. However, the matrix is often heterogeneous, and its various components may differentially contribute to metapopulation processes at different spatial scales, a phenomenon that has rarely been investigated. The aim of this study was to estimate the relative importance of matrix composition and spatial scale, habitat quality, and management intensity on the occurrence and density of local populations of two endangered large blue butterflies: Phengaris teleius and P. nausithous. Presence and abundance data were assessed over two years, 2011-12, in 100 local patches within two heterogeneous regions (near Kraków and Tarnów, southern Poland). The matrix composition was analyzed at eight spatial scales. We observed high occupancy rates in both species, regions and years. With the exception of area and isolation, almost all of the matrix components contributed to Phengaris sp. densities. The different matrix components acted at different spatial scales (grassland cover within 4 and 3 km, field cover within 0.4 and 0.3 km and water cover within 4 km radii for P. teleius and P. nausithous, respectively) and provided the highest independent contribution to the butterfly densities. Additionally, the effects of a 0.4 km radius of forest cover and a food plant cover on P. teleius, and a 1 km radius of settlement cover and management intensity on P. nausithous densities were observed. Contrary to former studies we conclude that the matrix heterogeneity and spatial scale rather than general matrix type are of relevance for densities of butterflies. Conservation strategies for these umbrella species should concentrate on maintaining habitat quality and managing matrix composition at the most appropriate spatial scales.

Dynamic Models for Longitudinal Butterfly Data

We present models which provide succinct descriptions of longitudinal seasonal insect count data. This approach produces, for the first time, estimates of the key parameters of brood productivities. It may be applied to univoltine and bivoltine species. For the latter, the productivities of each brood are estimated separately, which results in new indices indicating the contributions from different generations. The models are based on discrete distributions, with expectations that reflect the underlying nature of seasonal data. Productivities are included in a deterministic, auto-regressive manner, making the data from each brood a function of those in the previous brood. A concentrated likelihood results in appreciable efficiency gains. Both phenomenological and mechanistic models are used, including weather and site-specific covariates. Illustrations are provided using data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, however the approach is perfectly general. Consistent associations are found when estimates of productivity are regressed on northing and temperature. For instance, for univoltine species productivity is usually lower following milder winters, and mean emergence times of adults for all species have become earlier over time, due to climate change. The predictions of fitted dynamic models have the potential to improve the understanding of fundamental demographic processes. This is important for insects such as UK butterflies, many species of which are in decline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

De novo transcriptome characterization of the ghost moth, Thitarodes pui, and elevation-based differences in the gene expression of its larvae

Thitarodes pui larvae are the hosts of a medicinal fungus, Ophiocordyceps sinensis, and are naturally distributed at an altitude of 4100-4650 m on Segrila Mountain of the Tibetan Plateau. Here, we conducted transcriptome profiling of T. pui larvae based on the Illumina high-throughput sequencing platform. Subsequently, we explored elevation-based differences of T. pui by comparing gene expression profiles between larvae at high-altitude (natural conditions) and larvae exposed to short-term (2months) low-altitude conditions. A total of 105,935,208 clean reads were assembled into 70,048 unigenes with a mean length of 639 bp. All unigenes were searched against public databases, with 51.26% unigenes being successfully annotated in the NR, SWISS-PROT, EuKaryotic Orthologous Groups (KOG), Gene Ontology (GO), and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genome (KEGG) databases. A total of 11,846 unigenes were functionally classified into 239 KEGG pathways. Metabolism was the most represented pathway, with 4271 unigenes (36.05%). Using the transcriptome data as a reference, 629 (311 up-regulated/318 down-regulated) genes were differentially expressed by low-altitude larvae when compared with those of high-altitude larvae. The most significantly differentially expressed genes were annotated in the processes of carbohydrate metabolism, lipid metabolism, and respiration. This report provides valuable information about the T. pui transcriptome for future genomic studies, including how gene expression is altered in larvae reared at different elevations.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

Haldane's rule revisited: do hybrid females have a shorter lifespan? Survival of hybrids in a recent contact zone between two large gull species

Haldane's rule predicts that particularly high fitness reduction should affect the heterogametic sex of interspecific hybrids. Despite the fact that hybridization is widespread in birds, survival of hybrid individuals is rarely addressed in studies of avian hybrid zones, possibly because of methodological constraints. Here, having applied capture-mark-recapture models to an extensive, 19-year-long data set on individually marked birds, we estimate annual survival rates of hybrid individuals in the hybrid zone between herring (Larus argentatus) and Caspian (Larus cachinnans) gulls. In both parental species, males have a slightly higher survival rate than females (model-weighted mean ± SE: herring gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01, Caspian gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01). Hybrid males do not survive for a shorter time than nonhybrid ones (0.88 ± 0.01), whereas hybrid females have the lowest survival rate among all groups of individuals (0.83 ± 0.03). This translates to a shorter adult (reproductive) lifespan (on average by 1.7-1.8 years, i.e. ca 25%) compared with nonhybrid females. We conclude that, in line with Haldane's rule, the lower survival rate of female hybrids may contribute to selection against hybrids in this hybrid zone.

Variation in butterfly larval acoustics as a strategy to infiltrate and exploit host ant colony resources

About 10,000 arthropods live as ants' social parasites and have evolved a number of mechanisms allowing them to penetrate and survive inside the ant nests. Many of them can intercept and manipulate their host communication systems. This is particularly important for butterflies of the genus Maculinea, which spend the majority of their lifecycle inside Myrmica ant nests. Once in the colony, caterpillars of Maculinea “predatory species” directly feed on the ant larvae, while those of “cuckoo species” are fed primarily by attendance workers, by trophallaxis. It has been shown that Maculinea cuckoo larvae are able to reach a higher social status within the colony's hierarchy by mimicking the acoustic signals of their host queen ants. In this research we tested if, when and how myrmecophilous butterflies may change sound emissions depending on their integration level and on stages of their life cycle. We studied how a Maculinea predatory species (M. teleius) can acoustically interact with their host ants and highlighted differences with respect to a cuckoo species (M. alcon). We recorded sounds emitted by Maculinea larvae as well as by their Myrmica hosts, and performed playback experiments to assess the parasites' capacity to interfere with the host acoustic communication system. We found that, although varying between and within butterfly species, the larval acoustic emissions are more similar to queens' than to workers' stridulations. Nevertheless playback experiments showed that ant workers responded most strongly to the sounds emitted by the integrated (i.e. post-adoption) larvae of the cuckoo species, as well as by those of predatory species recorded before any contact with the host ants (i.e. in pre-adoption), thereby revealing the role of acoustic signals both in parasite integration and in adoption rituals. We discuss our findings in the broader context of parasite adaptations, comparing effects of acoustical and chemical mimicry.

Gene flow across a hybrid zone maintained by a weak heterogametic incompatibility and positive selection of incompatible alleles

Hybridization between incipient species is more likely to produce sterile or inviable F(1) offspring in the heterogametic (XY or ZW) sex than in the homogametic (XX or ZZ) sex, a phenomenon known as Haldane's rule. Population dynamics associated with Haldane's rule may play an important role in early speciation of sexually reproducing organisms. The dynamics of the hybrid zone maintained by incomplete hybrid inferiority (sterility/inviability) in the heterogametic sex (a 'weak' Haldane's rule) caused by a Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibility was modelled. The influences and interplays of the strengths of incompatibility, dispersal, density-dependent regulation (DDR) and local adaptation of incompatible alleles in a scenario of short-range dispersal (the stepping-stone model) were examined. It was found that a partial heterogametic hybrid incompatibility could efficiently impede gene flow and maintain characteristic clinal noncoincidence and discordance of alleles. Density-dependent regulation appears to be an important factor affecting hybrid zone dynamics: it can effectively skew the effects of the partial incompatibility and dispersal as measured by effective dispersal, clinal structures and density depression. Unexpectedly, local adaptation of incompatible alleles in the parental populations, which would be critical for the establishment of the incompatibility, exerts little effect on hybrid zone dynamics. These results strongly support the plausibility of the adaptive origin of hybrid incompatibility and ecological speciation: an adaptive mutation, if it confers a marginal fitness advantage in the local population and happens to cause epistatic inferiority in hybrids, could efficiently drive further genetic divergence that may result in the gene becoming an evolutionary hotspot.

Experimental examination of intraspecific density-dependent competition during the breeding period in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

A central goal of population ecology is to identify the factors that regulate population growth. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America re-colonize the breeding range over several generations that result in population densities that vary across space and time during the breeding season. We used laboratory experiments to measure the strength of density-dependent intraspecific competition on egg laying rate and larval survival and then applied our results to density estimates of wild monarch populations to model the strength of density dependence during the breeding season. Egg laying rates did not change with density but larvae at high densities were smaller, had lower survival, and weighed less as adults compared to lower densities. Using mean larval densities from field surveys resulted in conservative estimates of density-dependent population reduction that varied between breeding regions and different phases of the breeding season. Our results suggest the highest levels of population reduction due to density-dependent intraspecific competition occur early in the breeding season in the southern portion of the breeding range. However, we also found that the strength of density dependence could be almost five times higher depending on how many life-stages were used as part of field estimates. Our study is the first to link experimental results of a density-dependent reduction in vital rates to observed monarch densities in the wild and show that the effects of density dependent competition in monarchs varies across space and time, providing valuable information for developing robust, year-round population models in this migratory organism.

Spatially and financially explicit population viability analysis of Maculinea alcon in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The conservation of species structured in metapopulations involves an important dilemma of resource allocation: should investments be directed at restoring/enlarging habitat patches or increasing connectivity. This is still an open question for Maculinea species despite they are among the best studied and emblematic butterfly species, because none of the population dynamics models developed so far included dispersal.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed the first spatially and financially explicit Population Viability Analysis model for Maculinea alcon, using field data from The Netherlands. Implemented using the RAMAS/GIS platform, the model incorporated both local (contest density dependence, environmental and demographic stochasticities), and regional population dynamics (dispersal rates between habitat patches). We selected four habitat patch networks, contrasting in several basic features (number of habitat patches, their quality, connectivity, and occupancy rate) to test how these features are affecting the ability to enhance population viability of four basic management options, designed to incur the same costs: habitat enlargement, habitat quality improvement, creation of new stepping stone habitat patches, and reintroduction of captive-reared butterflies. The PVA model was validated by the close match between its predictions and independent field observations on the patch occupancy pattern. The four patch networks differed in their sensitivity to model parameters, as well as in the ranking of management options. Overall, the best cost-effective option was enlargement of existing habitat patches, followed by either habitat quality improvement or creation of stepping stones depending on the network features. Reintroduction was predicted to generally be inefficient, except in one specific patch network.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results underline the importance of spatial and regional aspects (dispersal and connectivity) in determining the impact of conservation actions, even for a species previously considered as sedentary. They also illustrate that failure to account for the cost of management scenarios can lead to very different conclusions.

Differential effects of weather and natural enemies on coexisting aphid populations

Study of mechanisms responsible for regulating populations of living organisms is essential for a better comprehension of the structure of biological communities and evolutionary forces in nature. Aphids (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha) comprise a large and economically important group of phytophagous insects distributed worldwide. Previous studies determined that density-dependent mechanisms play an important role in regulating their populations. However, only a few of those studies identified specific factors responsible for the observed regulation. Time series data used in this study originated from the untreated control plots that were a part of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) insecticide trials in northern Maine from 1971 to 2004. The data set contained information on population densities of three potato-colonizing aphid species (buckthorn aphid, Aphis nasturtii; potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae; and green peach aphid, Myzus persicae) and their natural enemies. We used path analysis to explore effects of weather and natural enemies on the intrinsic growth rates of aphid populations. Weather factors considered in our analyses contributed to the regulation of aphid populations, either directly or through natural enemies. However, direct weather effects were in most cases detectable only at P ≤ 0.10. Potato aphids were negatively affected by both fungal disease and predators, although buckthorn aphids were negatively affected by predators only. Parasitoids did not have a noticeable effect on the growth of any of the three aphid species. Growth of green peach aphid populations was negatively influenced by interspecific interactions with the other two aphid species. Differential population regulation mechanisms detected in the current study might at least partially explain coexistence of three ecologically similar aphid species sharing the same host plant.

Evidence for positive density-dependent emigration in butterfly metapopulations

A positive effect of (meta)population density on emigration has been predicted by many theoretical models and confirmed empirically in various organisms. However, in butterflies, the most popular species for dispersal studies, the evidence for its existence has so far been equivocal, with negative relationships between density and emigration being reported more frequently. We analysed dispersal in sympatric metapopulations of two Maculinea butterflies, intensively surveyed with mark-release-recapture methods for 7 years. Dispersal parameters, derived using the virtual migration model, were assessed against butterfly densities, which fluctuated strongly over the study period. Emigration was positively correlated with density, and this effect was particularly strong at densities above carrying capacity, when emigration increased up to threefold in females and twofold in males compared with the normal levels. In turn, density had little impact on other dispersal parameters analysed. Our findings provide good evidence for positive density-dependence of emigration in butterflies. Emigrating at high densities is particularly beneficial for females, because it gives them a chance to lay part of their egg-load in less crowded patches, where offspring survival is higher due to lower intraspecific competition. Even though the rise in emigration becomes considerable at densities exceeding carrying capacity, i.e. relatively infrequently, it still has serious implications for many ecological phenomena, such as species range expansions, gene flow, and metapopulation persistence. Consequently, instead of treating emigration as a fixed trait, it is worth allowing for its density-dependence in applications such as population viability analyses, genetic models or metapopulation models.

A complete record from colonization to extinction reveals density dependence and the importance of winter conditions for a population of the silvery blue, Glaucopsyche lygdamus

Butterflies in the family Lycaenidac are often the focus of conservation efforts. However, our understanding of lycaenid population dynamics has been limited to relatively few examples of long-term monitoring data that have been reported. Here, factors associated with population regulation are investigated using a complete record of a single population of the silvery blue, Glaucopsyche lygdamus Doubleday (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Adults of G. lygdamus were first observed in an annual grassland near Davis, California, in 1982 and were last seen in 2003. Relationships between inter-annual variation in abundance and climatic variables were examined, accounting for density dependent effects. Significant effects of both negative density dependence and climatic variation were detected, particularly precipitation and temperature during winter months. Variation in precipitation, the strongest predictor of abundance, was associated directly and positively with butterfly abundance in the same year. Winter temperatures had a negative effect in the same year, but had a lagged, positive effect on abundance in the subsequent year. Mechanistic hypotheses are posed that include climatic effects mediated through both larval and adult plant resources.

Limited evidence for the demographic Allee effect from numerous species across taxa

Extensive theoretical work on demographic Allee effects has led to the latent assumption that they are ubiquitous in natural populations, yet current empirical support for this phenomenon is sparse. We extended previous single-taxon analyses to evaluate the empirical support for demographic Allee effects in the per capita population growth rate of 1198 natural populations spanning all major taxa. For each population, we quantified the empirical support for five population growth models: no growth (random walk); exponential growth, with and without an Allee effect; and logistic growth, with and without an Allee effect. We used two metrics to quantify empirical support, information-theoretic and Bayesian strength of evidence, and observed top-rank frequency. The Ricker logistic model was both the most supported and most frequently top-ranked model, followed by random walk. Allee models had a combined relative support of 12.0% but were top-ranked in only 1.1% of the time series. Accounting for local climate variation and measurement error caused the loss of top-ranked Allee models, although the latter also increased their relative support. The 13 time series exhibiting Allee models were shorter and less variable than other time series, although only three were non-trending. Time series containing observations at low abundance were not more likely and did not show higher support for Allee effect models. We conclude that there is relatively high potential for demographic Allee effects in these 1198 time series but comparatively few observed cases, perhaps due to the influences of climate and measurement error.

A rigorous approach to investigating common assumptions about disease transmission: Process algebra as an emerging modelling methodology for epidemiology

Changing scale, for example, the ability to move seamlessly from an individual-based model to a population-based model, is an important problem in many fields. In this paper, we introduce process algebra as a novel solution to this problem in the context of models of infectious disease spread. Process algebra allows us to describe a system in terms of the stochastic behaviour of individuals, and is a technique from computer science. We review the use of process algebra in biological systems, and the variety of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques available. The analysis illustrated here solves the changing scale problem: from the individual behaviour we can rigorously derive equations to describe the mean behaviour of the system at the level of the population. The biological problem investigated is the transmission of infection, and how this relates to individual interactions.

Changing demography and dispersal behaviour: ecological adaptations in an alpine butterfly

High mountain ecosystems are extreme habitats for all organisms and therefore demand specific adaptations. In this context, we studied the ecology of the butterfly Euphydryas aurinia debilis in the High Tauern (Austria) and compared the obtained data against the ecology of the species in lower elevation habitats. We performed mark-release-recapture studies over the entire flight periods (end of June to end of July) in 2007 and 2008 to analyse the fundamental ecological parameters of a population. The demography of males and females was similar in both years, and no indication of typical protandry was detected. We observed a generally low dispersal of the individuals in both years, but males dispersed significantly more than females in 2008; this finding of low vagility was supported by allozyme analyses. Furthermore, butterflies survived periods of several days of continuously closed snow cover without any indication of increased mortality rates. In these three traits, this alpine population of E. aurinia apparently has ecological and physiological adaptations to the extreme requirements of high-altitude habitats and strongly deviates from the lower elevation populations.