Using community science to map western monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in spring

Migratory animals follow seasonal cycles comprising linked phases often with different habitat requirements and demographic processes. Conservation of migratory species therefore must consider the full seasonal cycle to identify points limiting population viability. For western monarch butterflies, which have experienced significant declines, early spring is considered a critical period in the annual population cycle. However, records of western monarchs in early spring, when overall abundance is lowest, have historically been extremely limited. We used a community science initiative, the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge, to collect data on monarch distribution throughout the western United States between February 14th and April 22nd over 3 years. Using data from the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge and iNaturalist, we identified potential breeding habitat for western monarchs in early spring that spanned a large geographic area and several ecoregions. We observed monarchs in early spring that likely eclosed in the current year, suggesting that population expansion from overwintering sites reflects both movement and population growth. The number of records of western monarchs from early spring was higher during the Mystery Challenge (33.0/year) than earlier years (5.1/year). This study demonstrates the potential for and limitations of community science to increase our understanding of species at points in the life cycle when they are rare.

Resilience or Catastrophe? A possible state change for monarch butterflies in western North America

In the western United States, the population of migratory monarch butterflies is on the brink of collapse, having dropped from several million butterflies in the 1980s to ~2000 butterflies in the winter of 2020-2021. At the same time, a resident (non-migratory) monarch butterfly population in urban gardens has been growing in abundance. The new resident population is not sufficient to make up for the loss of the migratory population; there are still orders of magnitude fewer butterflies now than in the recent past. The resident population also probably lacks the demographic capacity to expand its range inland during summer months. Nonetheless, the resident population may have the capacity to persist. This sudden change emphasises the extent to which environmental change can have unexpected consequences, and how quickly these changes can happen. We hope it will provoke discussion about how we define resilience and viability in changing environments.

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Understanding the factors associated with declines of at-risk species is an important first step in setting management and recovery targets. This step can be challenging when multiple aspects of climate and land use are changing simultaneously, and any or all could be contributing to population declines. We analyzed population trends of monarch butterflies in western North America in relation to likely environmental drivers. Unlike the larger eastern monarch population, past analyses of western monarchs have only evaluated the importance of climate (i.e., not land use) factors as drivers of abundance. We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) to evaluate the potential importance of changes in land use and climate variables. Trends in western monarch abundance were more strongly associated with land use variables than climate variables. Conclusions about importance of climate and land use variables were robust to changes in PLSR model structure. However, individual variables were too collinear to unambiguously separate their effects. We compared these conclusions to the more widely used technique of multiple regression, followed by multi-model inference (MRMI). Naïve interpretation of MRMI results could be misleading, if collinearity were not taken into account. MRMI was also highly sensitive to variation in model construction. Our results suggest a two-pronged approach to monarch conservation, specifically, starting efforts now to restore habitat, while also using experiments to more clearly delineate separate effects of climate and land use factors. They also demonstrate the utility of PLSR, a technique that is growing in use but is still relatively under-appreciated in conservation biology.

Faster movement in nonhabitat matrix promotes range shifts in heterogeneous landscapes

Ecologists often assume that range expansion will be fastest in landscapes composed entirely of the highest-quality habitat. Theoretical models, however, show that range expansion depends on both habitat quality and habitat-specific movement rates. Using data from 78 species in 70 studies, we find that animals typically have faster movement through lower-quality environments (73% of published cases). Therefore, if we want to manage landscapes for range expansion, there is a trade-off between promoting movement with nonhostile matrix, and promoting population growth with high-quality habitat. We illustrate how this trade-off plays out with the use of an exemplar species, the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly. For this species, we calculate that the expected rate of range expansion is fastest in landscapes with ~15% high-quality habitat. Behavioral responses to nonhabitat matrix have often been documented in animal populations, but rarely included in empirical predictions of range expansion. Considering movement behavior could change land-planning priorities from focus on high-quality habitat only to integrating high- and low-quality land cover types, and evaluating the costs and benefits of different matrix land covers for range expansion.

Movement and Demography of At-Risk Butterflies: Building Blocks for Conservation

The number of insect species at risk of population decline and extinction is increasing rapidly. Yet we know almost nothing about the ecology of these species, except for at-risk butterflies. A growing body of literature shows how butterfly vital rates, including demography and movement, are essential for guiding conservation and recovery. History has shown us that without these data, conservation decisions often weaken, rather than enhance, population viability. This is especially true in changing landscapes. We review knowledge of vital rates across all at-risk butterflies. We have information on movement for 17 of 283 butterfly species and information on demography for 19 species. We find that habitat-specific movement behavior is key to understanding how to connect populations, and habitat-specific demography is central to managing habitats. Methods and analyses worked out for butterflies can provide a scaffold around which to build studies for the conservation of other at-risk insects.

Mechanism matters: the cause of fluctuations in boom-bust populations governs optimal habitat restoration strategy

Many populations exhibit boom-bust dynamics in which abundance fluctuates dramatically over time. Past research has focused on identifying whether the cause of fluctuations is primarily exogenous, e.g., environmental stochasticity coupled with weak density dependence, or endogenous, e.g., over-compensatory density dependence. Far fewer studies have addressed whether the mechanism responsible for boom-bust dynamics matters with respect to at-risk species management. Here, we ask whether the best strategy for restoring habitat across a landscape differs under exogenously vs. endogenously driven boom-bust dynamics. We used spatially explicit individual-based models to assess how butterfly populations governed by the two mechanisms would respond to habitat restoration strategies that varied in the level of resource patchiness, from a single large patch to multiple patches spaced at different distances. Our models showed that the restoration strategy that minimized extinction risk and boom-bust dynamics would be markedly different depending on the governing mechanism. Exogenously governed populations fared best in a single large habitat patch, whereas for endogenously driven populations, boom-bust dynamics were dampened and extinction risk declined when the total restored area was split into multiple patches with low to moderate inter-patch spacing. Adding environmental stochasticity to the endogenous model did not alter this result. Habitat fragmentation lowered extinction risk in the endogenously driven populations by reducing their growth rate, precluding both "boom" phases and, more importantly, "bust" phases. Our findings suggest that (1) successful restoration will depend on understanding the causes of fluctuations in at-risk populations, (2) the level and pattern of spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity will also affect the ideal management approach, and (3) counterintuitively, for at-risk species with endogenously governed boom-bust dynamics, lowering the intrinsic population growth rate may decrease extinction risk.

Old models explain new observations of butterfly movement at patch edges

Understanding movement in heterogeneous environments is central to predicting how landscape changes affect animal populations. Several recent studies point out an intriguing and distinctive looping behavior by butterflies at habitat patch edges and hypothesize that this behavior requires a new framework for analyzing animal movement. We show that this looping behavior could be caused by a longstanding movement model, biased correlated random walk, with bias toward habitat patches. The ability of this longstanding model to explain recent observations reinforces the point that butterflies respond to habitat heterogeneity and do not move randomly through heterogeneous environments. We discuss the implications of different movement models for predicting butterfly responses to landscape change, and our rationale for retaining longstanding movement models, rather than developing new modeling frameworks for looping behavior at patch edges.

Testing simple indices of habitat proximity

Simple measures of habitat proximity made primarily on the basis of land cover are widely used in the ecological literature to infer habitat connectivity, or the potential for animal movement among resource patches. However, such indices rarely have been tested against observations of animal movement or against more detailed biological models. We developed a priori expectations as to the types of study systems and organisms for which various habitat proximity indices would be best suited. We then used data from three study systems and four species to test which, if any, of the indices were good predictors of population-level responses. Our a priori expectations about index performance were not upheld. The indices that consider both habitat area and distance from the focal patch were highly correlated with each other, suggesting that they do index similar quantities. However, none of the indices performed well in predicting population response variables. The results suggest that the pattern of habitat cover alone may be insufficient to predict the process of animal movement.

Nectar and hostplant scarcity limit populations of an endangered Oregon butterfly

As grassland habitats become degraded, declines in juvenile and adult food resources may limit populations of rare insects. Fender's blue butterfly (Icaricia icarioides fenderi), a species proposed for listing as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act, survives in remnants of upland prairie in western Oregon. We investigated the effects of limited larval hostplants and adult nectar sources on butterfly population size at four sites that encompass a range of resource densities. We used coarse and detailed estimates of resource abundance to test hypotheses relating resource quantity to population size. Coarse estimates of resources (percent cover of hostplant and density of nectar flowers) suggest that butterfly population size is not associated with resource availability. However, more detailed estimates of resources (density of hostplant leaves and quantity of nectar from native nectar sources) suggest that butterfly population size is strongly associated with resource availability. The results of this study suggest that restoring degraded habitat by augmenting adult and larval resources will play an important role in managing populations of this rare butterfly.

Statutory classification of cocaine as a narcotic: an illogical anachronism

Although cocaine is pharmacologically not a narcotic, federal and state drug control laws have classified it as one from 1922 through the present. In many states and under federal law, the classification is part of a statutory scheme that imposes substantially more severe penalties for offenses involving cocaine than for offenses involving other nonnarcotic drugs. This Note examines the circumstances surrounding the adoption and maintenance of the legal classification of cocaine as a narcotic. It then reviews two of the many cases that have rejected claims that the classification is unconstitutional. The Note concludes that, despite its constitutionality, the inaccurate classification is not only illogical and unnecessary to a legislative goal of strictly penalizing cocaine offenses, but is counterproductive as well.

The Multidimensional Scaling Of A Set Of Artistic Drawings : Perceived Structure And Scale Correlates

Product-centered research on creativity approaches the criterion problem of what is to be the referent for creativity through the analysis of tangible products such as a r t objects, writing, or scientific achievements. The present research is concerned with the evaluation and study of artist drawings contributed by sophomore students a t the Rhode Island School of Design. Multi-dimensional scaling methods were applied to similarity judgments obtained from art experts on two separate sets of 26 drawings. Three similarity dimensions accounted for the interstimulus distances for each set of drawings. Although no statistical test was available, the dimensions from the two seta appeared to correspond. Scale values of 4 drawings common to the two sets were consistent, and the dimensions appeared to define very similar stimulus characteristics. It was concluded that multidimensional scaling procedures provided a means for differentiating among a set of complex, esthetic products. Scale values of drawings on the three dimensions also correlated differentially with cognitive and achievement measures available on the students, suggesting that product dimensions identified via similarity judgments were related to characteristics of individuals producing the products. Hypotheses were developed as to the psychological meaning of the three product dimensions.

Points of view about preference as tools in the analysis of creative products

Research on the creative product may provide an analytical tool for generating and testing hypotheses about psychological variables related to level and style of creative achievement. Evaluations of products should be analyzed to determine (1) whether more than one point of view about quality is held among a heterogeneous group of judges and (2) whether personality, academic, and background characteristics of Ss producing the products relate differentially to quality as defined by different points of view. In a study of artistic creativity, drawings were collected from 191 sophomore students at a school of design and rated for esthetic quality by 28 artist and non-artist judges. Four points of view about quality were identified by factor analysis of correlations between judges. Evidence is presented that psychological, achievement, and background characteristics of Ss are differentially related to quality of their drawings as defined by the four points of view. In particular, choice of major, scores on certain aptitude tests, academic performance in the fine arts courses, and measures of wealth of cultural background showed differential correlations with the points of view. Finally, characteristics of drawings rated high or low according to at least two of the judgmental viewpoints may be useful in the generation of hypotheses about psychological variables related to creativity.

Paleontologic Investigations at Big Bone Lick State Park, Kentucky: A Preliminary Report

The Big Bone Lick area in Kentucky, the first widely known collecting locality for vertebrate fossils in North America, is being investigated for further faunal and geologic evidence. Mammal bones, ranging in age from Wisconsin (Tazewell?) to Recent, were recovered in 1962 from four different faunal zones in two terrace fills.