Testing the applicability of random forest modeling to examine benthic foraminiferal responses to multiple environmental parameters

The main environmental variables controlling benthic foraminiferal distributions were identified and used to assess their influence on ecological indices developed as predictors of Ecological Quality Status (EcoQS) in marine ecosystems. Gradient forest and random forest models were applied to assess the predictive value of a selection of abiotic (environmental) and biotic (foraminifera) variables in a costal marine area in the central Adriatic Sea (Italy). This approach yields evidence that the predictor variables sand, silt, Pollution Load Index, and TN have the greatest influence on the distribution of benthic foraminifera in this area. In addition, we identify thresholds for the most important environmental variables that influence ecological indices. These findings contribute to efforts to determine how to best improve sediment quality and environmental stability for marine conservation. Further application of these approaches represents a useful tool for policymakers to survey the diversity of marine organisms and to improve the ability to protect and restore marine ecosystems by identifying predictors of diversity and identifying key thresholds in these predictors.

Simulating Groundcover Community Assembly in a Frequently Burned Ecosystem Using a Simple Neutral Model

Fire is a keystone process that drives patterns of biodiversity globally. In frequently burned fire-dependent ecosystems, surface fire regimes allow for the coexistence of high plant diversity at fine scales even where soils are uniform. The mechanisms on how fire impacts groundcover community dynamics are, however, poorly understood. Because fire can act as a stochastic agent of mortality, we hypothesized that a neutral mechanism might be responsible for maintaining plant diversity. We used the demographic parameters of the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB) as a foundation to model groundcover species richness, using a southeastern US pine woodland as an example. We followed the fate of over 7,000 individuals of 123 plant species for 4 years and two prescribed burns in frequently burned Pinus palustris sites in northwest FL, USA. Using these empirical data and UNTB-based assumptions, we developed two parsimonious autonomous agent models, which were distinct by spatially explicit and implicit local recruitment processes. Using a parameter sensitivity test, we examined how empirical estimates, input species frequency distributions, and community size affected output species richness. We found that dispersal limitation was the most influential parameter, followed by mortality and birth, and that these parameters varied based on scale of the frequency distributions. Overall, these nominal parameters were useful for simulating fine-scale groundcover communities, although further empirical analysis of richness patterns, particularly related to fine-scale burn severity, is needed. This modeling framework can be utilized to examine our premise that localized groundcover assemblages are neutral communities at high fire frequencies, as well as to examine the extent to which niche-based dynamics determine community dynamics when fire frequency is altered.

A Model of Organizational Change in the Context of Union-Management Relations

Since ABS has had little to say about the role of unions and the part they play in OD, this paper takes a first step in developing a model of change involving union-management relations, which takes into consideration the special issues of goals, power, and conflict peculiar to each party. A set of testable propositions having to do with stimuli and forces encouraging or inhibiting commitment to embark on and to maintain joint change efforts is presented, followed by a short discussion of the implications of the uses of such a modelfor behavioral scientists.

Biotic, temporal and spatial variability of tritium concentrations in transpirate samples collected in the vicinity of a near-surface low-level nuclear waste disposal site and nearby research reactor

The results of a 21 month sampling program measuring tritium in tree transpirate with respect to local sources are reported. The aim was to assess the potential of tree transpirate to indicate the presence of sub-surface seepage plumes. Transpirate gathered from trees near low-level nuclear waste disposal trenches contained activity concentrations of (3)H that were significantly higher (up to ∼700 Bq L(-1)) than local background levels (0-10 Bq L(-1)). The effects of the waste source declined rapidly with distance to be at background levels within 10s of metres. A research reactor 1.6 km south of the site contributed significant (p < 0.01) local fallout (3)H but its influence did not reach as far as the disposal trenches. The elevated (3)H levels in transpirate were, however, substantially lower than groundwater concentrations measured across the site (ranging from 0 to 91% with a median of 2%). Temporal patterns of tree transpirate (3)H, together with local meteorological observations, indicate that soil water within the active root zones comprised a mixture of seepage and rainfall infiltration. The degree of mixing was variable given that the soil water activity concentrations were heterogeneous at a scale equivalent to the effective rooting volume of the trees. In addition, water taken up by roots was not well mixed within the trees. Based on correlation modelling, net rainfall less evaporation (a surrogate for infiltration) over a period of from 2 to 3 weeks prior to sampling seems to be the optimum predictor of transpirate (3)H variability for any sampled tree at this site. The results demonstrate successful use of (3)H in transpirate from trees to indicate the presence and general extent of sub-surface contamination at a low-level nuclear waste site.

Geographic variation in host-specificity and parasitoid pressure of an herbivore (geometridae) associated with the tropical genus piper (piperaceae)

The extraordinary diversity of tropical herbivores may be linked to hostplant specialization driven in part by variation in pressure from natural enemies. We quantified levels of host-specificity and parasitoid attack for the specialist herbivore, Eois (Geometridae). The goals of this research were to examine: 1) whether Eois are specialized on the genus Piper (Piperaceae) and if hostplant specialization varies geographically; 2) whether Eois are equally vulnerable to parasitoid attack across different geographic regions and by the same parasitoid families; and 3) whether parasitism levels vary with precipitation and elevation. Based on over 15,000 rearings, we found Eois caterpillars feeding exclusively on Piper. However, we did not detect geographic differences in host-specificity; each Eois species fed on an average of two Piper species. Parasitism levels of Eois varied significantly with climate and topography; Eois were most vulnerable to parasitoid attack in moist versus dry and wet forests and at low versus high elevations. The diversity of parasitoid families reared from Eois was greater in Ecuador and Costa Rica than in Panama, where parasitoids were primarily in the family Braconidae. The quantitative evidence for host-specificity provides support for the hypothesis that Eois are specialized on Piper. Our results also reveal that Eois are exposed to a mosaic of potential selective pressures due to variation in parasitoid attack over a large spatial scale.