Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model

The consistency of exploration behaviours across life stages in a native Australian rodent, the fawn-footed mosaic-tailed rat Melomys cervinipes

Many species show inter-individual variation in exploratory behaviours that are consistent over time, reflecting a personality. Differences in exploration can affect how individuals acquire resources and use their environment. However, few studies have considered whether exploratory behaviours are consistent across developmental life stages, such as when individuals disperse out the natal territory or when they become sexually mature. We therefore investigated the consistency of exploration behaviours towards a novel object and novel environment in a native Australian rodent, the fawn-footed mosaic-tailed rat Melomys cervinipes across development. Individuals were tested in an open field test and novel object test for five trials across four different life stages (pre-weaning, recently weaned, independent juvenile, sexually mature adult). We found that individual mosaic-tailed rats were consistent in their exploration of novel objects over these life stages, as these behaviours were repeatable and did not change across testing replicates. However, how individuals explored novel environments was not repeatable and changed across development, with exploration peaking during the independent juvenile stage. These results suggest that the way an individual interacts with novel objects may be somewhat constrained by genetic or epigenetic effects early in development, whereas spatial exploration could be more flexible to facilitate developmental shifts, such as dispersal. The life stage of an animal should therefore be taken into consideration when assessing personality in different species.

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ_S . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λ_S decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λ_S . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

Evolutionary Determinants of Nonseasonal Breeding in Wild Chacma Baboons

AbstractAnimal reproductive phenology varies from strongly seasonal to nonseasonal, sometimes among closely related or sympatric species. While the extent of reproductive seasonality is often attributed to environmental seasonality, this fails to explain many cases of nonseasonal breeding in seasonal environments. We investigated the evolutionary determinants of nonseasonal breeding in a wild primate, the chacma baboon (Papio ursinus), living in a seasonal environment with high climatic unpredictability. We tested three hypotheses proposing that nonseasonal breeding has evolved in response to (1) climatic unpredictability, (2) reproductive competition between females favoring birth asynchrony, and (3) individual, rank-dependent variations in optimal reproductive timing. We found strong support for an effect of reproductive asynchrony modulated by rank: (i) birth synchrony is costly to subordinate females, lengthening their interbirth intervals; (ii) females alter their reproductive timings (fertility periods and conceptions) in relation to previous conceptions in the group; and (iii) the reported effect of birth synchrony on interbirth intervals weakens the intensity of reproductive seasonality at the population level. This study emphasizes the importance of sociality in mediating the evolution of reproductive phenology in group-living organisms, a result of broad significance for understanding key demographic parameters driving population responses to increasing climatic fluctuations.

Fighting force and experience combine to determine contest success in a warlike mammal

Intergroup conflict has been proposed as a major influence in social evolution. Understanding how intergroup contests exert selection on group living requires determining what properties of groups and their members drive contest success. We analyzed 19 y of data on intergroup fighting in wild banded mongooses to disentangle the factors that determine victory. Two factors, the number of males in the group and the age of the oldest “senior” male, most strongly influence the probability of victory. Senior males may be a benefit because of their disproportionate fighting experience. As in human societies, strength in numbers and the presence of key individuals are critical for success in violent intergroup contests, perhaps influencing selection on individual life history and social behavior.

Conflicts between social groups or “intergroup contests” are proposed to play a major role in the evolution of cooperation and social organization in humans and some nonhuman animal societies. In humans, success in warfare and other collective conflicts depends on both fighting group size and the presence and actions of key individuals, such as leaders or talismanic warriors. Understanding the determinants of intergroup contest success in other warlike animals may help to reveal the role of these contests in social evolution. Using 19 y of data on intergroup encounters in a particularly violent social mammal, the banded mongoose (Mungos mungo), we show that two factors, the number of adult males and the age of the oldest male (the “senior” male), have the strongest impacts on the probability of group victory. The advantage conferred by senior males appears to stem from their fighting experience. However, the galvanizing effect of senior males declines as they grow old until, at very advanced ages, senior males become a liability rather than an asset and can be evicted. As in human conflict, strength in numbers and the experience of key individuals combine to determine intergroup contest success in this animal society. We discuss how selection arising from intergroup contests may explain a suite of features of individual life history and social organization, including male eviction, sex-assortative alloparental care, and adult sex ratio.

Estimation of body weight in captive Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica)

So far, there has been no safe and convenient method to weigh the large fierce animals, like Amur tigers. To address this problem, we built models to predict the body weight of Amur tigers based on the fact that body weight is proportional to body measurements or age. Using the method of body measurements, we extracted the body measurements from four different kinds of the lateral body image of tigers, i.e., total lateral image, central lateral image, ellipse fitting image and rectangle fitting image, and then we respectively used artificial neural network (ANN) and power regression model to analyze the predictive relationships between body weight and body measurements. Our results demonstrated that, among all ANN models, the model built with rectangle fitting image had the smallest mean square error. Comparatively, we screened power regression models which had the smallest Akakai information criteria (AIC). In addition, using the method of age, we fitted nonlinear regression models for the relationship between body weight and age and found that, for male tigers, logistic model had the smallest AIC. For female tigers, Gompertz model had the smallest AIC. Consequently, this study could be applied to estimate body weight of captive, or even wild, Amur tigers safely and conveniently, helping to monitor individual health and growth of the Amur tiger populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Many lifetime growth trajectories for a single mammal

Despite their importance in shaping life history tactics and population dynamics, individual growth trajectories have only been rarely explored in the wild because their analysis requires multiple measurements of individuals throughout their lifetime and some knowledge of age, a key timer of body growth. The availability of long-term longitudinal studies of two wild boar populations subjected to contrasting environments (rich vs. poor) provided an opportunity to analyze individual growth trajectories. We quantified wild boar growth trajectories at both the population and the individual levels using standard growth models (i.e., Gompertz, logistic, and monomolecular models) that encompass the expected range of growth shapes in determinate growers. Wild boar is a rather altricial species, with a polygynous mating system and is strongly sexually dimorphic in size. According to current theories of life history evolution, we thus expect wild boar to display a sex-specific Gompertz type growth trajectory and lower sexual size dimorphism in the poorer environment. While wild boar displayed the expected Gompertz type trajectory in the rich site at the population level, we found some evidence for potential differences in growth shapes between populations and individuals. Asymptotic body mass, growth rate and timing of maximum growth rate differed as well, which indicates a high flexibility of growth in wild boar. We also found a cohort effect on asymptotic body mass, which suggests that environmental conditions early in life shape body mass at adulthood in this species. Our findings demonstrate that body growth trajectories in wild boar are highly diverse in relation to differences of environmental context, sex and year of birth. Whether the intermediate ranking of wild boar along the precocial-altricial continuum of development at birth may explain the ability of this species to exhibit this high diversity of growth patterns remains to be investigated.

Biological and statistical interpretation of size-at-age, mixed-effects models of growth

The differences in life-history traits and processes between organisms living in the same or different populations contribute to their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We developed mixed-effect model formulations of the popular size-at-age von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth functions to estimate individual and group variation in body growth, using as a model system four freshwater fish populations, where tagged individuals were sampled for more than 10 years. We used the software Template Model Builder to estimate the parameters of the mixed-effect growth models. Tests on data that were not used to estimate model parameters showed good predictions of individual growth trajectories using the mixed-effects models and starting from one single observation of body size early in life; the best models had R 2 > 0.80 over more than 500 predictions. Estimates of asymptotic size from the Gompertz and von Bertalanffy models were not significantly correlated, but their predictions of size-at-age of individuals were strongly correlated (r > 0.99), which suggests that choosing between the best models of the two growth functions would have negligible effects on the predictions of size-at-age of individuals. Model results pointed to size ranks that are largely maintained throughout the lifetime of individuals in all populations.

Modeling variation in the growth of wild and captive juvenile vervet monkeys in relation to diet and resource availability

OBJECTIVES

To compare longitudinal weight gain in captive and wild juvenile vervet monkeys and conduct an empirical assessment of different mechanistic growth models.

METHODS

Weights were collected from two groups of captive monkeys and two consecutive cohorts of wild monkeys until the end of the juvenile period (~800 days). The captive groups were each fed different diets, while the wild groups experienced different ecological conditions. Three different growth curve models were compared.

RESULTS

By 800 days, the wild juveniles were lighter, with a slower maximum growth rate, and reached asymptote earlier than their captive counterparts. There were overall differences in weight and growth rate across the two wild cohorts. This corresponded to differences in resource availability. There was considerable overlap in growth rate and predicted adult weight of male and females in the first, but not the second, wild cohort. Maternal parity was not influential. While the von Bertalanffy curve provided the best fit to the data sets modeled together, the Logistic curve best described growth in the wild cohorts when considered separately.

CONCLUSIONS

The growth curves of the two captive cohorts are likely to lie near the maximum attainable by juvenile vervets. It may be helpful to include deviations from these rates when assessing the performance of wild vervet monkeys. The comparison of wild and captive juveniles confirmed the value of comparing different growth curve models, and an appreciation that the best models may well differ for different populations. Choice of mechanistic growth model can, therefore, be empirically justified, rather than theoretically predetermined.

Life history responses of meerkats to seasonal changes in extreme environments

Species in extreme habitats increasingly face changes in seasonal climate, but the demographic mechanisms through which these changes affect population persistence remain unknown. We investigated how changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature influence vital rates and viability of an arid environment specialist, the Kalahari meerkat, through effects on body mass. We show that climate change-induced reduction in adult mass in the prebreeding season would decrease fecundity during the breeding season and increase extinction risk, particularly at low population densities. In contrast, a warmer nonbreeding season resulting in increased mass and survival would buffer negative effects of reduced rainfall during the breeding season, ensuring persistence. Because most ecosystems undergo seasonal climate variations, a full understanding of species vulnerability to global change relies on linking seasonal trait and population dynamics.

Among-population divergence in personality is linked to altitude in plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae

BACKGROUND

Animals inhabiting high altitudes consistently show slow life-histories. The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits behavioural, physiological and/or morphological traits that mediate the trade-off between current and future reproduction or survival, which have coevolved along a slow-fast life history continuum. Previous studies have shown that the life histories of plateau pikas varied across altitude, high-altitude individuals showed slow pace of life which were characterized by few litters per year with small litter sizes. Thus, we hypothesized that pikas populations at higher altitudes would also express personalities characteristic associated with slow life history, such as high sociability, low activity or aggressiveness. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the activity and docility of three plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) populations distributed along an altitudinal gradient of the Tibetan Plateau. We predicted that high-altitude pika would be more docile and less active.

RESULTS

The behaviour of 556 pikas, from which 120 individuals were measured at least twice, was quantified. We observed that plateau pikas at high altitudes were less active and more docile than pika at lower altitudes. Activity and docility were significantly and negatively correlated in populations from high altitudes but not in populations from low altitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the POLS hypothesis, highlight the existence of personality variation among populations distributed along an altitudinal gradient and emphasise the importance of environmental selection on personality divergence.

A unified-models analysis of the development of sexual size dimorphism in Damaraland mole-rats, Fukomys damarensis

Individual variation in growth rates often generates variation in fitness. However, the ability to draw meaningful inferences from growth data depends on the use of growth models that allow for direct comparisons of growth between the sexes, between populations, and between species. Unlike traditional sigmoid functions, a recently parameterized family of unified growth models provides a reliable basis for comparisons since each parameter affects a single curve characteristic and parameters are directly comparable across the unified family. Here, we use the unified-models approach to examine the development of sexual size dimorphism in Damaraland mole-rats (Fukomys damarensis), where breeding males are larger than breeding females. Using skeletal measurements, we show here that the larger size of male Damaraland mole-rats arises from an increased growth rate across the entire period of development, rather than through sex differences in the duration or timing of growth. Male-biased skeletal size dimorphism is not unusual among rodents, and our measures of sex differences in size in captive mole-rats are close to sexual size differences in the wild, where size dimorphism = 1.04 (male:female). We hope our study will encourage the wide use of unified growth models by mammalogists.

Cost of dispersal in a social mammal: body mass loss and increased stress

Dispersal is a key process influencing the dynamics of socially and spatially structured populations. Dispersal success is determined by the state of individuals at emigration and the costs incurred after emigration. However, quantification of such costs is often difficult, due to logistical constraints of following wide-ranging individuals. We investigated the effects of dispersal on individual body mass and stress hormone levels in a cooperative breeder, the meerkat ( Suricata suricatta). We measured body mass and faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGCM) concentrations from 95 dispersing females in 65 coalitions through the entire dispersal process. Females that successfully settled lost body mass, while females that did not settle but returned to their natal group after a short period of time did not. Furthermore, dispersing females had higher fGCM levels than resident females, and this was especially pronounced during the later stages of dispersal. By adding information on the transient stage of dispersal and by comparing dispersers that successfully settled to dispersers that returned to their natal group, we expand on previous studies focusing on the earlier stages of dispersal. We propose that body mass and stress hormone levels are good indicators to investigate dispersal costs, as these traits often play an important role in mediating the effects of the environment on other life-history events and individual fitness.

Male immigration triggers increased growth in subordinate female meerkats

There is increasing evidence that some vertebrates can adjust their growth rate in relation to changes in the social context that affect their probability of breeding. Here, we show that, in meerkats (Suricata suricatta), which are singular cooperative breeders, subordinate females increase in body mass after their father is replaced as the dominant male in their natal group by an immigrant male, giving them regular access to an unfamiliar and unrelated mating partner, while their brothers showed no similar increase nor did subordinate females living in other stable groups (where male immigration did not occur did) in this time period. Moreover, subordinate females showed a greater increase in growth rate when their father was succeeded by an unfamiliar immigrant male than when he was replaced by a familiar male who was already resident. These results suggest that female meerkats can adjust their rate of growth to changes in the kinship composition of their groups that provide them with increased access to unrelated breeding partners, which may occur in other mammals as well when breeding opportunities change.

Individual heterogeneity and early life conditions shape growth in a freshwater top predator

Body size can have profound impacts on survival, movement, and reproductive schedules shaping individual fitness, making growth a central process in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Realized growth is the result of a complex interplay between life history schedules, individual variation, and environmental influences. Integrating all of these aspects into growth models is methodologically difficult, depends on the availability of repeated measurements of identifiable individuals, and consequently represents a major challenge in particular for natural populations. Using a unique 30-yr time series of individual length measurements inferred from scale year rings of wild brown trout, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate individual growth trajectories in temporally and spatially varying environments. We reveal a gradual decrease in average juvenile growth, which has carried over to adult life and contributed to decreasing sizes observed at the population level. Commonly studied environmental drivers like temperature and water flow did not explain much of this trend and overall persistent and among-year individual variation dwarfed temporal variation in growth patterns. Our model and results are relevant to a wide range of questions in ecology and evolution requiring a detailed understanding of growth patterns, including conservation and management of many size-structured populations.

The influence of stress hormones and aggression on cooperative behaviour in subordinate meerkats

In cooperative breeders, aggression from dominant breeders directed at subordinates may raise subordinate stress hormone (glucocorticoid) concentrations. This may benefit dominants by suppressing subordinate reproduction but it is uncertain whether aggression from dominants can elevate subordinate cooperative behaviour, or how resulting changes in subordinate glucocorticoid concentrations affect their cooperative behaviour. We show here that the effects of manipulating glucocorticoid concentrations in wild meerkats (Suricata suricatta) on cooperative behaviour varied between cooperative activities as well as between the sexes. Subordinates of both sexes treated with a glucocorticoid receptor antagonist (mifepristone) exhibited significantly more pup protection behaviour (babysitting) compared to those treated with glucocorticoids (cortisol) or controls. Females treated with mifepristone had a higher probability of exhibiting pup food provisioning (pup-feeding) compared to those treated with cortisol. In males, there were no treatment effects on the probability of pup-feeding, but those treated with cortisol gave a higher proportion of the food they found to pups than those treated with mifepristone. Using 19 years of behavioural data, we also show that dominant females did not increase the frequency with which they directed aggression at subordinates at times when the need for assistance was highest. Our results suggest that it is unlikely that dominant females manipulate the cooperative behaviour of subordinates through the effects of aggression on their glucocorticoid levels and that the function of aggression directed at subordinates is probably to reduce the probability they will breed.

Breeding decisions and output are correlated with both temperature and rainfall in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver

Animal reproductive cycles are commonly triggered by environmental cues of favourable breeding conditions. In arid environments, rainfall may be the most conspicuous cue, but the effects on reproduction of the high inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature remain poorly understood, despite being relevant to the current context of global warming. Here, we conducted a multiyear examination of the relationships between a suite of measures of temperature and rainfall, and the onset and length of the breeding season, the probability of breeding and reproductive output in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). As expected, reproductive output increased with rainfall, yet specific relationships were conditional on the timing of rainfall: clutch production was correlated with rainfall throughout the season, whereas fledgling production was correlated with early summer rainfall. Moreover, we reveal novel correlations between aspects of breeding and temperature, indicative of earlier laying dates after warmer springs, and longer breeding seasons during cooler summers. These results have implications for understanding population trends under current climate change scenarios and call for more studies on the role of temperature in reproduction beyond those conducted on temperate-region species.

Meerkat close calling patterns are linked to sex, social category, season and wind, but not fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations

It is well established that animal vocalizations can encode information regarding a sender's identity, sex, age, body size, social rank and group membership. However, the association between physiological parameters, particularly stress hormone levels, and vocal behavior is still not well understood. The cooperatively breeding African meerkats (Suricata suricatta) live in family groups with despotic social hierarchies. During foraging, individuals emit close calls that help maintain group cohesion. These contact calls are acoustically distinctive and variable in rate across individuals, yet, information on which factors influence close calling behavior is missing. The aim of this study was to identify proximate factors that influence variation in call rate and acoustic structure of meerkat close calls. Specifically, we investigated whether close calling behavior is associated with sex, age and rank, or stress hormone output (i.e., measured as fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGCM) concentrations) as individual traits of the caller, as well as with environmental conditions (weather) and reproductive seasonality. To disentangle the effects of these factors on vocal behavior, we analyzed sound recordings and assessed fGCM concentrations in 64 wild but habituated meerkats from 9 groups during the reproductive and non-reproductive seasons. Dominant females and one-year old males called at significantly higher rates compared to other social categories during the reproductive season. Additionally, dominant females produced close calls with the lowest mean fundamental frequencies (F0) and the longest mean pulse durations. Windy conditions were associated with significantly higher call rates during the non-reproductive season. Fecal GCM concentrations were unrelated to close calling behavior. Our findings suggest that meerkat close calling behavior conveys information regarding the sex and social category of the caller, but shows no association with fGCM concentrations. The change in call rate in response to variation in the social and ecological environments individuals experience indicates some degree of flexibility in vocal production.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

A population of snow voles provides a rare example of contemporary adaptive evolution in the wild, but without a quantitative genetic perspective this genetic change, and the selective pressure that underlies it, would have gone undetected.

Biologists struggle to demonstrate adaptive evolution in wild populations: while they routinely observe natural selection on heritable traits, in only a handful of cases could they demonstrate an evolutionary response. Although various explanations for this paradox have been proposed, comprehensive empirical tests are lacking. Over the past years, we have therefore studied an alpine population of snow voles. Following all individuals throughout their lives, we found that body mass is heritable and that heavy voles have a higher fitness. Nevertheless, mean body mass did not increase. To resolve this, we disentangled the role of genes and the environment in shaping body mass. This revealed that the population did evolve, but that this was masked by environmental variation. Furthermore, although the genetic change was adaptive, it was opposite to our initial expectation: the population evolved to become lighter, not heavier. This was because although heavy voles have the highest fitness, their mass does not cause high fitness. Instead, it is the voles with the genes for being light that do best, especially when the first winter snow arrives early. This shows that populations can evolve rapidly, but that without a genetic perspective, this, and its underlying mechanism, may go undetected.

Energetic constraint of non-monotonic mass change during offspring growth: a general hypothesis and application of a new tool

Post-natal growth is an important life-history trait and can be a sensitive indicator of ecological stress. For over 50 years, monotonic (never-decreasing) growth has been viewed as the predominant trajectory of post-natal mass change in most animal species, notably among birds. However, prevailing analytical approaches and energetic constraints may limit detection of non-monotonic (or multiphasic), determinate growth patterns, such as mass recession in birds (weight loss prior to fledging, preceded by overshooting adult mass), which is currently believed to be restricted to few taxa. Energetic surplus and shortfall are widespread conditions that can directly influence the degree of mass overshooting and recession. Thus, we hypothesize that in many species, prevailing energetic constraints force mass change away from a fundamental non-monotonic trajectory to instead follow a monotonic curve. We observed highly non-monotonic, mass change trajectories (overshooting adult mass by up to almost 20%) among common tern Sterna hirundo chicks, a well-studied species long-established as growing monotonically. We quantified the prevalence and magnitude of non-monotonic mass change prior to fledging for 313 common tern chicks that successfully fledged from two discrete populations in multiple years. We used a new approach for analysing non-monotonic curves to examine differences in mass change trajectories between populations under contrasting abiotic (freshwater vs. saltwater) and biotic stresses (low rates of food provisioning). Some degree of mass recession occurred in 73% of all study chicks. Overshooting adult mass followed by extensive mass recession was most prevalent at our freshwater colony, being detected among 34-38% of chicks annually. Non-monotonic trajectories were less marked in populations experiencing ecological stress and among lower quality individuals. Chicks that were provisioned at higher rates were more likely to both overshoot adult mass and experience subsequent mass recession. Our results in common terns provide strong support for the hypothesis that non-monotonic trajectories are the fundamental pattern of mass change but are constrained to be monotonic under energetic shortfall. This justifies future tests of the generality of this hypothesis across a broad range of taxa. We also demonstrate a recent analytical tool that prevents routine fitting of monotonic curves without prior investigation of non-monotonic trends.

No apparent benefits of allonursing for recipient offspring and mothers in the cooperatively breeding meerkat

Cooperative behaviours by definition are those that provide some benefit to another individual. Allonursing, the nursing of non-descendent young, is often considered a cooperative behaviour and is assumed to provide benefits to recipient offspring in terms of growth and survival, and to their mothers, by enabling them to share the lactation load. However, these proposed benefits are not well understood, in part because maternal and litter traits and other ecological and social variables are not independent of one another, making patterns hard to discern using standard univariate analyses. Here, we investigate the potential benefits of allonursing in the cooperatively breeding Kalahari meerkat, where socially subordinate females allonurse the young of a dominant pair without having young of their own. We use structural equation modelling to allow us to account for the interdependence of maternal traits, litter traits and environmental factors. We find no evidence that allonursing provides benefits to pups or mothers. Pups that received allonursing were not heavier at emergence and did not have a higher survival rate than pups that did not receive allonursing. Mothers whose litters were allonursed were not in better physical condition, did not reconceive faster and did not reduce their own nursing investment compared to mothers who nursed their litters alone. These patterns were not significantly influenced by whether mothers were in relatively good, or poor, condition. We suggest that allonursing may persist in this species because the costs to allonurses may be low. Alternatively, allonursing may confer other, more cryptic, benefits to pups or allonurses, such as immunological or social benefits.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Somatic growth is a crucial determinant of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, since larger organisms often have higher survival and reproductive success. Size may be the result of intrinsic (i.e. genetic), environmental (temperature, food), and social (competition with conspecifics) factors and interaction between them. Knowing the contribution of intrinsic, environmental, and social factors will improve our understanding of individual population dynamics, help conservation and management of endangered species, and increase our ability to predict future growth trajectories of individuals and populations. The latter goal is also relevant for humans, since predicting future growth of newborns may help identify early pathologies that occur later in life. However, teasing apart the contribution of individual and environmental factors requires powerful and efficient statistical methods, as well as biological insights and the use of longitudinal data. We developed a novel statistical approach to estimate and separate the contribution of intrinsic and environmental factors to lifetime growth trajectories, and generate hypotheses concerning the life-history strategies of organisms. Using two fish populations as a case study, we show that our method predicts future growth of organisms with substantially greater accuracy than using historical information on growth at the population level, and help us identify year-class effects, probably associated with climatic vagaries, as the most important environmental determinant of growth.

Maternal, social and abiotic environmental effects on growth vary across life stages in a cooperative mammal

Resource availability plays a key role in driving variation in somatic growth and body condition, and the factors determining access to resources vary considerably across life stages. Parents and carers may exert important influences in early life, when individuals are nutritionally dependent, with abiotic environmental effects having stronger influences later in development as individuals forage independently. Most studies have measured specific factors influencing growth across development or have compared relative influences of different factors within specific life stages. Such studies may not capture whether early-life factors continue to have delayed effects at later stages, or whether social factors change when individuals become nutritionally independent and adults become competitors for, rather than providers of, food. Here, we examined variation in the influence of the abiotic, social and maternal environment on growth across life stages in a wild population of cooperatively breeding meerkats. Cooperatively breeding vertebrates are ideal for investigating environmental influences on growth. In addition to experiencing highly variable abiotic conditions, cooperative breeders are typified by heterogeneity both among breeders, with mothers varying in age and social status, and in the number of carers present. Recent rainfall had a consistently marked effect on growth across life stages, yet other seasonal terms only influenced growth during stages when individuals were growing fastest. Group size and maternal dominance status had positive effects on growth during the period of nutritional dependence on carers, but did not influence mass at emergence (at 1 month) or growth at independent stages (>4 months). Pups born to older mothers were lighter at 1 month of age and subsequently grew faster as subadults. Males grew faster than females during the juvenile and subadult stage only. Our findings demonstrate the complex ways in which the external environment influences development in a cooperative mammal. Individuals are most sensitive to social and maternal factors during the period of nutritional dependence on carers, whereas direct environmental effects are relatively more important later in development. Understanding the way in which environmental sensitivity varies across life stages is likely to be an important consideration in predicting trait responses to environmental change.

Quantitative analysis of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) viremia profiles from experimental infection: a statistical modelling approach

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically significant viral diseases facing the global swine industry. Viremia profiles of PRRS virus challenged pigs reflect the severity and progression of infection within the host and provide crucial information for subsequent control measures. In this study we analyse the largest longitudinal PRRS viremia dataset from an in-vivo experiment. The primary objective was to provide a suitable mathematical description of all viremia profiles with biologically meaningful parameters for quantitative analysis of profile characteristics. The Wood's function, a gamma-type function, and a biphasic extended Wood's function were fit to the individual profiles using Bayesian inference with a likelihood framework. Using maximum likelihood inference and numerous fit criteria, we established that the broad spectrum of viremia trends could be adequately represented by either uni- or biphasic Wood's functions. Three viremic categories emerged: cleared (uni-modal and below detection within 42 days post infection(dpi)), persistent (transient experimental persistence over 42 dpi) and rebound (biphasic within 42 dpi). The convenient biological interpretation of the model parameters estimates, allowed us not only to quantify inter-host variation, but also to establish common viremia curve characteristics and their predictability. Statistical analysis of the profile characteristics revealed that persistent profiles were distinguishable already within the first 21 dpi, whereas it is not possible to predict the onset of viremia rebound. Analysis of the neutralizing antibody(nAb) data indicated that there was a ubiquitous strong response to the homologous PRRSV challenge, but high variability in the range of cross-protection of the nAbs. Persistent pigs were found to have a significantly higher nAb cross-protectivity than pigs that either cleared viremia or experienced rebound within 42 dpi. Our study provides novel insights into the nature and degree of variation of hosts' responses to infection as well as new informative traits for subsequent genomic and modelling studies.

Early growth, dominance acquisition and lifetime reproductive success in male and female cooperative meerkats

In polygynous species, variance in reproductive success is higher in males than females. There is consequently stronger selection for competitive traits in males and early growth can have a greater influence on later fitness in males than in females. As yet, little is known about sex differences in the effect of early growth on subsequent breeding success in species where variance in reproductive success is higher in females than males, and competitive traits are under stronger selection in females. Greater variance in reproductive success has been documented in several singular cooperative breeders. Here, we investigated consequences of early growth for later reproductive success in wild meerkats. We found that, despite the absence of dimorphism, females who exhibited faster growth until nutritional independence were more likely to become dominant, whereas early growth did not affect dominance acquisition in males. Among those individuals who attained dominance, there was no further influence of early growth on dominance tenure or lifetime reproductive success in males or females. These findings suggest that early growth effects on competitive abilities and fitness may reflect the intensity of intrasexual competition even in sexually monomorphic species.

Mixed-effects modelling of scale growth profiles predicts the occurrence of early and late fish migrants

Fish growth is commonly used as a proxy for fitness but this is only valid if individual growth variation can be interpreted in relation to conspecifics' performance. Unfortunately, assessing individual variation in growth rates is problematic under natural conditions because subjects typically need to be marked, repeated measurements of body size are difficult to obtain in the field, and recaptures may be limited to a few time events which will generally vary among individuals. The analysis of consecutive growth rings (circuli) found on scales and other hard structures offers an alternative to mark and recapture for examining individual growth variation in fish and other aquatic vertebrates where growth rings can be visualized, but accounting for autocorrelations and seasonal growth stanzas has proved challenging. Here we show how mixed-effects modelling of scale growth increments (inter-circuli spacing) can be used to reconstruct the growth trajectories of sea trout (Salmo trutta) and correctly classify 89% of individuals into early or late seaward migrants (smolts). Early migrants grew faster than late migrants during their first year of life in freshwater in two natural populations, suggesting that migration into the sea was triggered by ontogenetic (intrinsic) drivers, rather than by competition with conspecifics. Our study highlights the profound effects that early growth can have on age at migration of a paradigmatic fish migrant and illustrates how the analysis of inter-circuli spacing can be used to reconstruct the detailed growth of individuals when these cannot be marked or are only caught once.

Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.