Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness

Knowing which of multiple environmental factors (climate, other species, humans, etc.) most strongly affect wild plants and animals could focus our attention on the future environmental changes most likely to influence biodiversity. However, we find that abiotic, biotic, and human influences on plant populations are of similar strengths, for different kinds of plants and in multiple locations and environments. The effects of these factors on plant evolution are also likely to be similar. Thus, there is unlikely to be a shortcut to considering all of these factors when predicting the future ecological and evolutionary responses of species and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate (λ) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on λ. However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on λ did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, λ was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Plant species' range type determines local responses to biotic interactions and land use

Geographic plant distribution is often assumed to be predominantly limited directly by the climatic tolerances of species. However, the role of climate is now known to be mainly an indirect one mostly mediating dispersal and establishment, species interactions, or habitat characteristics, which all are often modified by human land use. In these complex systems, negative biotic interactions are predicted to increase in relative importance toward benign climatic conditions. We tested this hypothesis experimentally by exposing plant species with different geographic distribution ranges to different climates, biotic interactions, and land use. Thereby, species predominantly distributed in regions with benign climatic conditions were expected to be better able to cope with negative biotic interactions than species from regions with environmentally stressful climatic conditions. We present results of a fully crossed two-year transplantation field experiment replicated in 45 plots in three study regions along a precipitation gradient across Germany. We manipulated biotic interactions (presence/absence of competition and mollusk herbivory) in grasslands of different management regimes (meadows, mown pastures, pastures). The transplanted phytometers consisted of six congeneric species pairs, each representing one oceanic and one distinctly more continental range type. The oceanic range type is predominantly distributed in benign climatic conditions in Western Europe, while the more continental type is distributed in regions with more stressful climatic conditions in Eastern Europe. This experimental setting allowed us to study the impact of negative biotic interactions along an abiotic stress gradient under realistic land-use conditions. Under competition and mollusk herbivory, growth performance was more strongly reduced in continental compared to oceanic species. Range types also differed in their responses to grassland management. Differences in survival between the congeneric species were found to be region-specific and largely unaffected by biotic interactions and land use. In consequence, our results suggest that local responses to biotic interactions and land-use practices of otherwise very similar plant species can differ strongly depending on species' large-scale geographical distribution. Regionally differing responses to biotic interactions also show that local conditions can drastically change responses expected from macroecological theory.

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations).

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.

Performance and responses to competition in two congeneric annual species: does seed heteromorphism matter?

Variations in seed characteristics observed in heteromorphic species may affect various stages of their life cycles, e.g. seed dormancy, germination characteristics or even adult plant performance. Highly specialised seed morphs - described as colonisers and maintainers - exhibit a trade-off between colonisation capacity and competitive traits. The performance of distinct seed morph progeny under competitive conditions, and especially in multi-species arrangements, had previously not been given much attention. In this study, we compared performance and response to competition among distinct seed morph progenies in two congeneric, co-occurring species: the invasive Bidens frondosa and the non-invasive Bidens tripartita. We hypothesised that maintainer seed morphs of both species would perform better under increased plant densities and within inter-morphic mixtures, while coloniser morphs would show stronger responses to increased densities and perform relatively poorly in inter-morphic mixtures. We conducted a growth trial and a greenhouse experiment, which revealed that seed morph progeny differed significantly in plant height when grown without competition, while under competitive conditions such differences became less apparent. The observed pattern was more strongly pronounced in B. frondosa, which showed a general predominance in stature and biomass over its non-invasive congener. Although seed morphs performed equally well under competitive conditions, increased plant height and more rapid germination can favour the maintainer seed morph on sites where vegetation is already present.

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.