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Arsenović D, Lužanin Z, Milošević D, Dunjić J, Nikitović V, Savić S. The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:1581-1589. [PMID: 37453990 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02520-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2022] [Revised: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniela Arsenović
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
| | - Zorana Lužanin
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Dragan Milošević
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Jelena Dunjić
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Vladimir Nikitović
- Institute of Social Sciences, Kraljice Natalije 45, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
| | - Stevan Savić
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
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McKenna ZJ, Foster J, Atkins WC, Belval LN, Watso JC, Jarrard CP, Orth BD, Crandall CG. Age alters the thermoregulatory responses to extreme heat exposure with accompanying activities of daily living. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2023; 135:445-455. [PMID: 37410904 PMCID: PMC10538984 DOI: 10.1152/japplphysiol.00285.2023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Older adults are at greater risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality, due in part to age-related reductions in heat dissipating capabilities. Previous studies investigating the impact of age on responses to heat stress used approaches that lack activities of daily living and therefore may not accurately depict the thermal/physiological strain that would occur during actual heatwaves. We sought to compare the responses of young (18-39 yr) and older (≥65 yr) adults exposed to two extreme heat simulations. Healthy young (n = 20) and older (n = 20) participants underwent two 3-h extreme heat exposures on different days: 1) DRY (47°C and 15% humidity) and 2) HUMID (41°C and 40% humidity). To mimic heat generation comparable with activities of daily living, participants performed 5-min bouts of light physical activity dispersed throughout the heat exposure. Measurements included core and skin temperatures, heart rate, blood pressure, local and whole body sweat rate, forearm blood flow, and perceptual responses. Δ core temperature (Young: 0.68 ± 0.27°C vs. Older: 1.37 ± 0.42°C; P < 0.001) and ending core temperature (Young: 37.81 ± 0.26°C vs. Older: 38.15 ± 0.43°C; P = 0.005) were greater in the older cohort during the DRY condition. Δ core temperature (Young: 0.58 ± 0.25°C vs. Older: 1.02 ± 0.32°C; P < 0.001), but not ending core temperature (Young: 37.67 ± 0.34°C vs. Older: 37.83 ± 0.35°C; P = 0.151), was higher in the older cohort during the HUMID condition. We demonstrated that older adults have diminished thermoregulatory responses to heat stress with accompanying activities of daily living. These findings corroborate previous reports and confirm epidemiological data showing that older adults are at a greater risk for hyperthermia.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Using an experimental model of extreme heat exposure that incorporates brief periods of light physical activity to simulate activities of daily living, the extent of thermal strain reported herein more accurately represents what would occur during actual heatwave conditions. Despite matching metabolic heat generation and environmental conditions, we show that older adults have augmented core temperature responses, likely due to age-related reductions in heat dissipating mechanisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary J McKenna
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Josh Foster
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Whitley C Atkins
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Luke N Belval
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Joseph C Watso
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Applied Clinical Research, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Caitlin P Jarrard
- Cardiovascular and Applied Physiology Laboratory, Department of Nutrition and Integrative Physiology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States
| | - Bonnie D Orth
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Craig G Crandall
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
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Fister D, Pérez-Aracil J, Peláez-Rodríguez C, Del Ser J, Salcedo-Sanz S. Accurate long-term air temperature prediction with Machine Learning models and data reduction techniques. Appl Soft Comput 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2023.110118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023]
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Dardir M, Wilson J, Berardi U. Heat and air quality related cause-based elderly mortalities and emergency visits. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 216:114640. [PMID: 36306877 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2022] [Revised: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The combined effects of heat events and poor air quality conditions can severely affect population health. A novel correlational method was developed to assess the impact of the short-term variations of environmental variables (air pollutants and ambient conditions) on community health responses (mortalities and emergency department visits). A multi-dimensional clustering approach was proposed by combining hierarchical and k-means clustering to promote flexibility and robustness to improve the correlation procedure. The study focused on the health records of the elderly population and people diagnosed with cardiorespiratory causes. The study investigated multiple health records on different levels of investigation: total, elderly, cause-based, and elderly cause-based records. The developed method was validated by investigating the short-term impact of ambient air temperature, relative humidity, ground-level ozone, and fine particulate matter on the health records during hot and warm seasons in the municipalities of Mississauga and Brampton, Peel Region, Ontario, Canada for 15 years. The analysis confirmed the association between moderate levels of environmental variables and increased short-term daily total deaths and emergency department visits, while the elderly sector showed higher vulnerability to environmental changes. Furthermore, the association with extreme heat conditions and poor air quality levels was affirmed with cause-based mortalities and emergency visits; the correlation was strongest with elderly cause-based health records. Findings confirm that cardiorespiratory patients, especially elderly people, were at the greatest risk of poor environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamed Dardir
- School of Environment, Enterprise, and Development, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada; Department of Architectural Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt.
| | - Jeffrey Wilson
- School of Environment, Enterprise, and Development, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Umberto Berardi
- Department of Architectural Science, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada
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Chau PH, Lau KKL, Qian XX, Luo H, Woo J. Visits to the accident and emergency department in hot season of a city with subtropical climate: association with heat stress and related meteorological variables. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1955-1971. [PMID: 35900375 PMCID: PMC9330976 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02332-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Literature reporting the association between heat stress defined by universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and emergency department visits is mainly conducted in Europe. This study aimed to investigate the association between heat stress, as defined by the UTCI, and visits to the accident and emergency department (AED) in Hong Kong, which represents a subtropical climate region. METHODS A retrospective study involving 13,438,846 AED visits in the public sector from May 2000 to September 2016, excluding 2003 and 2009, was conducted in Hong Kong. Age-sex-specific ANCOVA models of daily AED rates on heat stress and prolonged heat stress, adjusting for air quality, prolonged poor air quality, typhoon, rainstorm, year, day of the week, public holiday, summer vacation, and fee charging, were used. RESULTS On a day with strong heat stress (32.1 °C ≤ UTCI ≤ 38.0 °C), the AED visit rate (per 100,000) increased by 0.9 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.3) and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.1) for females and males aged 19-64 and 4.1 (95% CI: 2.7, 5.4) and 4.1 (95% CI: 2.6, 5.6) for females and males aged ≥ 65, while keeping other variables constant. On a day with very strong heat stress (38.1 °C ≤ UTCI ≤ 46.0 °C), the corresponding rates increased by 0.6 (95% CI: 0.1, 1.2), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.7, 2.7), 4.9 (95% CI: 3.1, 6.7), and 4.7 (95% CI: 2.7, 6.6), respectively. The effect size of heat stress associated with AED visit rates was negligible among those aged ≤ 18. Heat stress showed the greatest effect size for males aged 19-64 among all subgroups. CONCLUSION Biothermal condition from heat stress was associated with the health of the citizens in a city with a subtropical climate and reflected in the increase of daily AED visit. Public health recommendations have been made accordingly for the prevention of heat-related AED visits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pui Hing Chau
- School of Nursing, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
| | - Kevin Ka-Lun Lau
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden
| | - Xing Xing Qian
- School of Nursing, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Hao Luo
- Department of Social Work and Social Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Jean Woo
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Ecological Predictors of Older Adults' Participation and Retention in a Physical Activity Intervention. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19063190. [PMID: 35328876 PMCID: PMC8949961 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19063190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2022] [Revised: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Research is still lacking regarding the question as to how programs to promote healthy ageing should be organized in order to increase acceptance and thus effectiveness. For older adults, ecological factors, such as the physical distance to program sites, might predict participation and retention. Thus, the key aim of this analysis was to examine these factors in a physical activity intervention trial. Adults (N = 8299) aged 65 to 75 years were invited to participate and n = 589 participants were randomly assigned to one of two intervention groups with 10 weeks of physical activity home practice and exercise classes or a wait-list control group. Response, participation, and dropout data were compared regarding ecological, individual, and study-related variables. Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox regression models were used to determine predictors of dropout. In total, 405 participants completed the study. Weekly class attendance rates were examined regarding significant weather conditions and holiday periods. The highest rates of nonresponse were observed in districts with very high neighborhood levels of socioeconomic status. In this study, ecological factors did not appear to be significant predictors of dropout, whereas certain individual and study-related variables were predictive. Future studies should consider these factors during program planning to mobilize and keep subjects in the program.
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Yoon J, Lee W, Yoon MJ, Lee W. Risk of Heat-Related Mortality, Disease, Accident, and Injury Among Korean Workers: A National Representative Study From 2002 to 2015. GEOHEALTH 2021; 5:e2021GH000516. [PMID: 34938932 PMCID: PMC8672090 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 11/23/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Many studies have shown that heat waves can cause both death and disease. Considering the adverse health effects of heat waves on vulnerable groups, this study highlights their impact on workers. The present study thus investigated the association between heat exposure and the likelihood of hospitalization and death, and further identified the risk of heat-related diseases or death according to types of heat and dose-response modeling with heat threshold. Workers were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort 2002-2015, and regional data measured by the Korea Meteorological Administration were used for weather information. The relationship between hospitalization attributable to disease and weather variables was analyzed by applying a generalized additional model. Using the Akaike information criterion, we selected a model that presented the optimal threshold. Maximum daily temperature (MaxT) was associated with an increased risk of death and outdoor mortality. The association between death outdoors and MaxT had a threshold of 31.2°C with a day zero lag effect. History of medical facility visits due to the health effects of heat waves was evident in certain infectious and parasitic diseases (A and B), cardio and cerebrovascular diseases (I20-25 and I60-69), injury, poisoning, and other consequences of external causes (S, T). The study demonstrated that heat exposure is a risk factor for death and infectious, cardio-cerebrovascular, and genitourinary diseases, as well as injuries or accidents among workers. The finding that heat exposure affects workers' health has future implications for decision makers and researchers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin‐Ha Yoon
- Department of Preventive MedicineYonsei University College of MedicineSeoulSouth Korea
- The Institute for Occupational HealthYonsei University College of MedicineSeoulSouth Korea
| | - Won‐Tae Lee
- The Institute for Occupational HealthYonsei University College of MedicineSeoulSouth Korea
- Department of Occupational and Environmental MedicineSeverance HospitalYonsei University College of MedicineSeoulSouth Korea
| | - Min Joo Yoon
- Jungbu Area Epidemiologic Investigation TeamOccupational Safety and Health Research InstituteKorea Occupational Safety & Health AgencyIncheonSouth Korea
| | - Wanhyung Lee
- Department of Occupational and Environmental MedicineGil Medical CenterGachon University College of MedicineIncheonSouth Korea
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8
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Peña-Angulo D, Vicente-Serrano SM, Domínguez-Castro F, Reig-Gracia F, El Kenawy A. The potential of using climate indices as powerful tools to explain mortality anomalies: An application to mainland Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 197:111203. [PMID: 33894234 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Revised: 04/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events represent one of the key indicators of climate change and variability. These events can have an important impact on mortality rates, especially in the ageing population. This study assessed the spatial and seasonal distributions of mortality rates in mainland Spain and their association with climatic conditions over the period 1979-2016. The analysis was done on a seasonal and annual basis using 79 climatic indices and regional natural deaths data. Results indicate large spatial variability of natural deaths, which is mostly related to how the share of the elderly in the population varied across the studied regions. Spatially, both the highest mortality rates and the largest percentage of elders were found in the northwest areas of the study domain, where an extreme climate prevails, with very cold winters and hot summers. A strong seasonality effect was observed, winter shows more than 10% of natural deaths compared to the rest of the seasons. Also, results suggest a strong relation between climatic indices and natural deaths, albeit with a high spatial and seasonal variability. Climatic indices and natural deaths show a stronger correlation in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Peña-Angulo
- Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain.
| | - S M Vicente-Serrano
- Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain
| | - F Domínguez-Castro
- Aragonese Agency for Research and Development Researcher (ARAID), Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
| | - F Reig-Gracia
- Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain
| | - A El Kenawy
- Department of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt; Department of Geography, Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khoud, Muscat, Oman
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Infusino E, Caloiero T, Fusto F, Calderaro G, Brutto A, Tagarelli G. Characterization of the 2017 Summer Heat Waves and Their Effects on the Population of an Area of Southern Italy. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18030970. [PMID: 33499298 PMCID: PMC7908494 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18030970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2020] [Revised: 01/19/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Knowledge of bioclimatic comfort is paramount for improving people’s quality of life. To this purpose, several studies related to climatic comfort/discomfort have been recently published. These studies mainly focus on the analysis of temperature and relative humidity, i.e., the main variables influencing the environmental stress in the human body. In this context, the present work aims to analyze the number of visits to the hospital emergency department made by the inhabitants of the Crati River valley (Calabria region, southern Italy) during the heat waves that accompanied the African anticyclone in the summer of 2017. The analysis of the bioclimatic comfort was performed using the humidity index. Results showed that greater the index, the higher the number of accesses to the emergency department, in particular by the most vulnerable population groups, such as children and the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ernesto Infusino
- Department of Environmental Engineering (DIAm), University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci 41C, 87036 Rende, Italy;
| | - Tommaso Caloiero
- National Research Council—Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in Mediterranean (CNR—ISAFOM), Via Cavour 4/6, 87036 Rende, Italy;
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-0984-841-464
| | - Francesco Fusto
- Multi-Risk Functional Center, Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Calabria, Viale degli Angioini 143, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy;
| | - Gianfranco Calderaro
- Health Protection Department of the Calabria Region, Viale Europa, Località Germaneto, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy; (G.C.); (A.B.)
| | - Angelo Brutto
- Health Protection Department of the Calabria Region, Viale Europa, Località Germaneto, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy; (G.C.); (A.B.)
| | - Giuseppe Tagarelli
- National Research Council—Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in Mediterranean (CNR—ISAFOM), Via Cavour 4/6, 87036 Rende, Italy;
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Follos F, Linares C, Vellón JM, López-Bueno JA, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J. The evolution of minimum mortality temperatures as an indicator of heat adaptation: The cases of Madrid and Seville (Spain). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 747:141259. [PMID: 32777504 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2020] [Revised: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p < 0.05) represents the annual rate of variation in TMM. The results observed in this quinquennial analysis showed that the TMM is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than women in the two provinces. Furthermore, there was an increase in TMM in all of the quinquennium and a clear decrease in the final period. At the annual level, the linear fit was significant for Madrid for the whole population and corresponds to an increase in the TMM of 0.58 °C per decade. For Seville the linear fits were significant and the slopes of the fitted lines was 1.1 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the increase in temperatures observed over the past 36 years, and women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and evaluation of prevention plans to address the impact of heat waves should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Follos
- Tdot Solurciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J M Vellón
- Tdot Solurciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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Abed Al Ahad M, Sullivan F, Demšar U, Melhem M, Kulu H. The effect of air-pollution and weather exposure on mortality and hospital admission and implications for further research: A systematic scoping review. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0241415. [PMID: 33119678 PMCID: PMC7595412 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2020] [Accepted: 10/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air-pollution and weather exposure beyond certain thresholds have serious effects on public health. Yet, there is lack of information on wider aspects including the role of some effect modifiers and the interaction between air-pollution and weather. This article aims at a comprehensive review and narrative summary of literature on the association of air-pollution and weather with mortality and hospital admissions; and to highlight literature gaps that require further research. METHODS We conducted a scoping literature review. The search on two databases (PubMed and Web-of-Science) from 2012 to 2020 using three conceptual categories of "environmental factors", "health outcomes", and "Geographical region" revealed a total of 951 records. The narrative synthesis included all original studies with time-series, cohort, or case cross-over design; with ambient air-pollution and/or weather exposure; and mortality and/or hospital admission outcomes. RESULTS The final review included 112 articles from which 70 involved mortality, 30 hospital admission, and 12 studies included both outcomes. Air-pollution was shown to act consistently as risk factor for all-causes, cardiovascular, respiratory, cerebrovascular and cancer mortality and hospital admissions. Hot and cold temperature was a risk factor for wide range of cardiovascular, respiratory, and psychiatric illness; yet, in few studies, the increase in temperature reduced the risk of hospital admissions for pulmonary embolism, angina pectoris, chest, and ischemic heart diseases. The role of effect modification in the included studies was investigated in terms of gender, age, and season but not in terms of ethnicity. CONCLUSION Air-pollution and weather exposure beyond certain thresholds affect human health negatively. Effect modification of important socio-demographics such as ethnicity and the interaction between air-pollution and weather is often missed in the literature. Our findings highlight the need of further research in the area of health behaviour and mortality in relation to air-pollution and weather, to guide effective environmental health precautionary measures planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary Abed Al Ahad
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Frank Sullivan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Urška Demšar
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Maya Melhem
- Department of Landscape Design and Ecosystem Management, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Hill Kulu
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
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12
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Tsekeri E, Kolokotsa D, Santamouris M. On the association of ambient temperature and elderly mortality in a Mediterranean island - Crete. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 738:139843. [PMID: 32531601 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather conditions affect human health. This study analyses the association of high and low temperature with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases on people over 65 years old for the years 2007 to 2015, in the region of Chania, Greece. The mortality is examined by time series analysis and further investigated by Poisson, and Negative Binomial regression, showing that one-lag in maximum temperature strongly affects the health of the elderly. Finally, cluster analysis is used from May to October, which is confirmed by discriminant analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisavet Tsekeri
- Energy Management in the Built Environment Research Lab, Environmental Engineering School, Technical University of Crete, Technical University Campus, Kounoupidiana, GR 73100 Chania, Greece.
| | - Dionysia Kolokotsa
- Energy Management in the Built Environment Research Lab, Environmental Engineering School, Technical University of Crete, Technical University Campus, Kounoupidiana, GR 73100 Chania, Greece.
| | - Mat Santamouris
- The Anitta Lawrence Chair of High-Performance Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
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Ma Y, Jiao H, Zhang Y, Feng F, Cheng B, Ma B, Yu Z. Short-term effect of extreme air temperature on hospital emergency room visits for cardiovascular diseases from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:38029-38037. [PMID: 32621192 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-09814-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Extreme air temperature directly affected human health. However, the short-term effect of extreme air temperature on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases has rarely been reported in China. In this study, we focused on Beijing, China, and assessed the effects of cold/warm days and nights on the number of hospital emergency room (ER) visits for cardiovascular diseases from 2009 to 2012. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the association between extreme air temperature and the number of hospital ER visits for cardiovascular diseases. We divided the entire study group into two gender subgroups and three age subgroups. The results showed that the short-term effect of extreme air temperature on hospital ER visits for cardiovascular diseases was more profound in females and the elderly (aged ≥ 75 years). Among all the study subgroups, the highest relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular diseases associated with extremely cold days, warm days, cold nights, and warm nights was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), 0.8% (95% CI, - 0.9%-2.6%), 2.8% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.2%), and 1.8% (95% CI, 0.6%-4.3%), respectively. Overall, the effect of extremely low air temperature (during both days and nights) on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases was stronger and more acute than that of extremely high air temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Haoran Jiao
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yifan Zhang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Fengliu Feng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bowen Cheng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bingji Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhiang Yu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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Ma Y, Jiao H, Zhang Y, Cheng B, Feng F, Yu Z, Ma B. Impact of temperature changes between neighboring days on COPD in a city in Northeast China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:4849-4857. [PMID: 31845269 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07313-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 12/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Sudden temperature changes between neighboring days (T24h) have adverse effects on human health. In this study, we used a time series analysis to evaluate the impact of T24h on the number of hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from 2009 to 2012 in Changchun (the capital of Northeast China's Jilin province). We performed the analysis in a generalized additive model (GAM), and the controlling factors included long-term trends, day of the week effect, and the selected weather elements. We divided the entire study group into two gender subgroups (males and females) and two age subgroups (aged < 65 years and aged ≥ 65 years). T24h showed the greatest effect on the entire study group at lag 3 days. In particular, the greatest effect of T24h on females (males) occurred at lag 1 day (lag 3 days); the greatest effect of T24h on the aged ≥ 65 years (aged < 65 years) occurred at lag 1 day (lag 6 days). This indicates that temperature changes between neighboring days have a relatively more acute effect on the elderly and the females than on the younger people and the males. When T24h is less than zero, the highest RR of the number of hospital admissions for COPD occurred at lag 4 days during the warm season (1.025, 95% CI: 0.981, 1.069) and lag 3 days during the cold season (1.019, 95% CI: 0.988, 1.051). When T24h is greater than zero, the highest RR of the number of hospital admissions for COPD occurred at lag 6 days during the warm season (1.026, 95% CI: 0.977, 1.077) and lag 5 days during the cold season (1.021, 95% CI: 0.986, 1.057). The results of this study could be provided to local health authorities as scientific guidelines for controlling and preventing COPD in Changchun, China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Haoran Jiao
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yifan Zhang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bowen Cheng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Fengliu Feng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhiang Yu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bingji Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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Bastidas Pacheco GA, Hernández R. Cambio climático algunos aspectos a considerar para la supervivencia del ser vivo: revisión sistemática de la literatura. REVISTA CUIDARTE 2019. [DOI: 10.15649/cuidarte.v10i3.664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introducción: La problemática del cambio climático global que experimenta el planeta debe ser continuamente mostrada con el propósito de lograr en los países una visión objetiva y coherente y facilitar el desarrollo de planes y políticas de manejo medio ambiental. El objetivo fue proporcionar de forma consolidada y actualizada información sobre cambio climático a considerar en la toma de conciencia sobre su efecto para la supervivencia. Materiales y Métodos: Se basó en la revisión de literatura sobre aspectos del cambio climático en la supervivencia de la vida en la tierra, para ello se recurrió a bases de datos físicas (bibliotecas) y virtuales (Bireme/OPS, Medline, PudMed, Scielo). Resultados: De la revisión destacan cinco elementos claves: La evidencia del cambio climático; el cambio climático y su construcción mediática; el clima, su cambio y efecto sobre la salud; la política global y cambio climático; y los ecosistemas en materia de conservación en América Latina. Discusión: El cambio climático tiene un amplio cuerpo teórico de cimiento que debe presentarse de forma concisa y actualizada en procura de favorecer la toma de decisiones en la mitigación y adaptación de los efectos adversos que de él se deriva para la supervivencia de la vida en la tierra. Conclusiones: Toda acción de prevención, mitigación o adaptación a cambio climáticos requiere de información actual con el fin de garantizar el éxito una vez instauradas, debido a la diversidad de impactos y vulnerabilidad que tienen las poblaciones en distintas regiones del mundo.
Como citar este artículo: Bastidas GA, Hernández R. Cambio climático algunos aspectos a considerar para la supervivencia del ser vivo: revisión sistemática de la literatura. Rev Cuid. 2019; 10(3): e664. http://dx.doi.org/10.15649/cuidarte.v10i3.664
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Hu K, Guo Y, Yang X, Zhong J, Fei F, Chen F, Zhao Q, Zhang Y, Chen G, Chen Q, Ye T, Li S, Qi J. Temperature variability and mortality in rural and urban areas in Zhejiang province, China: An application of a spatiotemporal index. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 647:1044-1051. [PMID: 30180312 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2018] [Revised: 07/24/2018] [Accepted: 08/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature variability (TV) is a potential trigger for death in urban areas, but there is little evidence of this in rural areas. In addition, a typical TV index only considers the temporal variability of temperature and ignores its spatial variability, which should be considered due to the effects of human mobility. Here this study aimed to 1) develop a novel spatiotemporal TV index accounting for human mobility; and 2) based on this index, explore the urban-rural differences in TV-mortality associations in China. METHODS We collected daily data on fine-gridded hourly temperatures and >2 million deaths that occurred in Zhejiang province, China from 2009 to 2015. A spatiotemporal TV index was developed by calculating the standard deviation of the hourly temperatures from multi-site records over the course of several exposure days. A three-stage analysis was performed to estimate the mortality risks and mortality burdens of TV. Stratified analyses were performed by cause-specific mortality, urban/rural district, age and gender. RESULTS Significant associations were found between TV and all types of targeted diseases, age groups, and genders. Percentage increase in mortality associated with a 1 °C increase in TV at 0-7 exposure days were found to be higher for rural dwellers than urban dwellers in the warm season [for all-cause mortality, 2.07% (95% CI: 1.49%, 2.64%) vs. 1.16% (95%CI: 0.70%, 1.62%)]. An estimated all-cause mortality fraction of 5.33% was attributable to TV, with 4.99% in urban areas and 6.02% in rural areas. The elderly (aged 65+ years) and females were more sensitive to TV than young people and males, respectively. CONCLUSIONS A spatiotemporal TV index was developed, considering both the temporal and spatial variability of temperatures. TV is an independent health risk factor. In China, rural areas generally suffer greater TV-related mortality risks than urban areas in the warm season. Our findings have important implications for developing area-, cause-, and group-specific adaptation strategies and emergency planning to reduce TV-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kejia Hu
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Xuchao Yang
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, USA.
| | - Jieming Zhong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
| | - Fangrong Fei
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
| | - Feng Chen
- Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310008, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Gongbo Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Qian Chen
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China
| | - Tingting Ye
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Jiaguo Qi
- Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- J E Morley
- John E. Morley, MB, BCh, Division of Geriatric Medicine, Saint Louis University School of Medicine, 1402 S. Grand Blvd., M238, St. Louis, MO 63104,
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Ma Y, Zhou J, Yang S, Yu Z, Wang F, Zhou J. Effects of extreme temperatures on hospital emergency room visits for respiratory diseases in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2019; 26:3055-3064. [PMID: 30506386 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-018-3855-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2018] [Accepted: 11/26/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperature is closely associated with human health, but limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on respiratory diseases in China. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of extreme temperatures on hospital emergency room (ER) visits for respiratory diseases in Beijing, China. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) coupled with a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the association between extreme temperatures and hospital ER visits for different age and gender subgroups in Beijing from 2009 to 2012. The results showed that the exposure-response curve between temperature and hospital ER visits was almost W-shaped, with increasing relative risks (RRs) at extremely low temperature. In the whole year period, strong acute hot effects were observed, especially for the elders (age > 65 years). The highest RR associated with the extremely high temperature was 1.36 (95% CI, 0.96-1.92) at lag 0-27. The longer-lasting cold effects were found the strongest at lag 0-27 for children (age ≤ 15 years) and the relative risk was 1.96 (95% CI, 1.70-2.26). We also found that females were more susceptible to extreme temperatures than males.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Jianding Zhou
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Sixu Yang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhiang Yu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Fei Wang
- Tacheng Meteorology Bureau, Xinjiang, 834700, China
| | - Ji Zhou
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, 200030, China.
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Kalkstein AJ, Kalkstein LS, Vanos JK, Eisenman DP, Grady Dixon P. Heat/mortality sensitivities in Los Angeles during winter: a unique phenomenon in the United States. Environ Health 2018; 17:45. [PMID: 29724242 PMCID: PMC5934864 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-018-0389-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2018] [Accepted: 04/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Extreme heat is often associated with elevated levels of human mortality, particularly across the mid-latitudes. Los Angeles, CA exhibits a unique, highly variable winter climate, with brief periods of intense heat caused by downsloping winds commonly known as Santa Ana winds. The goal is to determine if Los Angeles County is susceptible to heat-related mortality during the winter season. This is the first study to specifically evaluate heat-related mortality during the winter for a U.S. city. METHODS Utilizing the Spatial Synoptic Classification system in Los Angeles County from 1979 through 2010, we first relate daily human mortality to synoptic air mass type during the winter season (December, January, February) using Welch's t-tests. However, this methodology is only somewhat effective at controlling for important inter- and intra-annual trends in human mortality unrelated to heat such as influenza outbreaks. As a result, we use distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) to evaluate if the relative risk of human mortality increases during higher temperatures in Los Angeles, as the DLNM is more effective at controlling for variability at multiple temporal scales within the human mortality dataset. RESULTS Significantly higher human mortality is uncovered in winter when dry tropical air is present in Los Angeles, particularly among those 65 years and older (p < 0.001). The DLNM reveals the relative risk of human mortality increases when above average temperatures are present. Results are especially pronounced for maximum and mean temperatures, along with total mortality and those 65 + . CONCLUSIONS The discovery of heat-related mortality in winter is a unique finding in the United States, and we recommend stakeholders consider warning and intervention techniques to mitigate the role of winter heat on human health in the County.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam J. Kalkstein
- Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Center for Languages, Cultures, and Regional Studies, United States Military Academy, 745 Brewerton Rd; 6th Floor, West Point, NY 10996 USA
| | - Laurence S. Kalkstein
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL USA
| | - Jennifer K. Vanos
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography & School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA USA
| | - David P. Eisenman
- UCLA Center for Public Health and Disasters, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - P. Grady Dixon
- Department of Geosciences, Fort Hays State University, Hays, KS USA
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Sharafkhani R, Khanjani N, Bakhtiari B, Jahani Y, Sadegh Tabrizi J. Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index and mortality in Tabriz (The northwest of Iran). J Therm Biol 2018; 71:195-201. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2017.11.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2017] [Revised: 11/11/2017] [Accepted: 11/20/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change. ATMOSPHERE 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos8110224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.
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22
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Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperatures, Heatwaves, and the Urban Heat Island in Athens, Greece. SUSTAINABILITY 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/su9040606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Circulation Conditions’ Effect on the Occurrence of Heat Waves in Western and Southwestern Europe. ATMOSPHERE 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos8020031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Havenith G, Fiala D. Thermal Indices and Thermophysiological Modeling for Heat Stress. Compr Physiol 2015; 6:255-302. [DOI: 10.1002/cphy.c140051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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25
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Díaz J, Carmona R, Mirón IJ, Ortiz C, León I, Linares C. Geographical variation in relative risks associated with heat: Update of Spain's Heat Wave Prevention Plan. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2015; 85:273-83. [PMID: 26433629 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Revised: 09/17/2015] [Accepted: 09/21/2015] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
A decade after the implementation of prevention plans designed to minimise the impact of high temperatures on health, some countries have decided to update these plans in order to improve the weakness detected in these ten years of operation. In the case of Spain, this update has fundamentally consisted of changing the so-called "threshold" or "trigger" temperatures used to activate the plan, by switching from temperature values based on climatological criteria to others obtained by epidemiological studies conducted on a provincial scale. This study reports the results of these "trigger" temperatures for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals, as well as the impact of heat on mortality by reference to the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) calculated for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The results obtained for threshold temperatures and RRs show a more uniform behaviour pattern than those obtained using temperature values based on climatological criteria; plus a clear decrease in RRs of heat-associated mortality due to the three causes considered, at both a provincial and regional level as well as for Spain as a whole. The updating of prevention plans is regarded as crucial for optimising the operation of these plans in terms of reducing the effect of high temperatures on population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
| | - R Carmona
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - I J Mirón
- Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority (Consejería de Sanidad y Asuntos Sociales de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos (Toledo), Spain
| | - C Ortiz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - I León
- National Center of Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
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Abstract
Heat stress increases human morbidity and mortality compared to normothermic conditions. Many occupations, disease states, as well as stages of life are especially vulnerable to the stress imposed on the cardiovascular system during exposure to hot ambient conditions. This review focuses on the cardiovascular responses to heat stress that are necessary for heat dissipation. To accomplish this regulatory feat requires complex autonomic nervous system control of the heart and various vascular beds. For example, during heat stress cardiac output increases up to twofold, by increases in heart rate and an active maintenance of stroke volume via increases in inotropy in the presence of decreases in cardiac preload. Baroreflexes retain the ability to regulate blood pressure in many, but not all, heat stress conditions. Central hypovolemia is another cardiovascular challenge brought about by heat stress, which if added to a subsequent central volumetric stress, such as hemorrhage, can be problematic and potentially dangerous, as syncope and cardiovascular collapse may ensue. These combined stresses can compromise blood flow and oxygenation to important tissues such as the brain. It is notable that this compromised condition can occur at cardiac outputs that are adequate during normothermic conditions but are inadequate in heat because of the increased systemic vascular conductance associated with cutaneous vasodilation. Understanding the mechanisms within this complex regulatory system will allow for the development of treatment recommendations and countermeasures to reduce risks during the ever-increasing frequency of severe heat events that are predicted to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Craig G Crandall
- Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas and University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas Marian University College of Osteopathic Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana
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Zaninović K, Matzarakis A. Impact of heat waves on mortality in Croatia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:1135-45. [PMID: 23995621 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0706-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2013] [Accepted: 07/07/2013] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this work was to determine the criteria for heat loads associated with an increase in mortality in different climatic regions of Croatia. The relationship between heat stress and mortality was analysed for the period 1983-2008. The input series is excess mortality defined as the deviations of mortality from expected values determined by means of a Gaussian filter of 183 days. The assessment of the thermal environment was performed by means of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The curve depicting the relationship between mortality and temperature has a U shape, with increased mortality in both the cold and warm parts of the scale but more pronounced in the warm part. The threshold temperature for increased mortality was determined using a scatter plot and fitting data by means of moving average of mortality; the latter is defined as the temperature at which excess mortality becomes significant. The values are higher in the continental part of Croatia than at the coast due to the refreshing influence of the sea during the day. The same analysis on a monthly basis shows that at the beginning of the warm season increased mortality occurs at a lower temperature compared with later on in the summer, and the difference is up to 15 °C between August and April. The increase in mortality is highest during the first 3-5 days and after that it decreases and falls below the expected value. Long-lasting heat waves present an increased risk, but in very long heat waves the increase in mortality is reduced due to mortality displacement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ksenija Zaninović
- Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Grič 3, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia,
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Bai L, Woodward A, Liu Q. Temperature and mortality on the roof of the world: a time-series analysis in three Tibetan counties, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2014; 485-486:41-48. [PMID: 24704955 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2013] [Revised: 02/06/2014] [Accepted: 02/21/2014] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tibet, with an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters, is warming faster than anywhere else in China. However, there have been no studies in Tibet of the relation between ambient temperature and mortality. METHODS We examined mean temperature and daily mortality in three Tibetan counties (Chengguan, Jiangzi and Naidong) using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on 5,610 deaths that occurred in 2008-2012. We separately investigated hot and cold effects on non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular deaths, out-of-hospital deaths and vulnerability factors including age, sex and education. RESULTS In all three counties, the effect of heat tended to be immediate, while the impact of cold lasted longer. The effects were consistent but modest in size and not statistically significant except for cumulative cold effects in Jiangzi (lag=0-14, RR=2.251, 95% CI=1.054-4.849). Those who were more vulnerable to temperature extremes tended to be men, the elderly (over 65 years) and illiterate persons. We found stronger temperature effects on cardiovascular deaths than on all-cause mortality, and we also observed an increase in out-of-hospital mortality in one county. CONCLUSIONS This is the first study to investigate the temperature-mortality relationship in Tibet, and the findings may guide public health programs and other interventions to protect the population against extreme temperatures in a developing Tibet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Bai
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, PR China.
| | - Alistair Woodward
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, PR China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, 44 WenHua Road, JiNan, Shangdong 250012, PR China; Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou 310003, PR China.
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Tobías A, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A, Diaz J. Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities. Environ Health 2014; 13:48. [PMID: 24912929 PMCID: PMC4078369 DOI: 10.1186/1476-069x-13-48] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2013] [Accepted: 05/02/2014] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. METHODS Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. RESULTS Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. CONCLUSIONS Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurelio Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), C/Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08031, Spain
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Julio Diaz
- National School of Public Health (ENS), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 5, Madrid 28029, Spain
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Hansen A, Bi P, Pisaniello D, Nitschke M, Tucker G, Newbury J, Kitson A, Dal Grande E, Avery J, Zhang Y, Kelsall L. Heat-health behaviours of older people in two Australian states. Australas J Ageing 2014; 34:E19-25. [PMID: 24621214 DOI: 10.1111/ajag.12134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
AIM A major heatwave occurred in Australia in early 2009 with considerable and varied health impacts in South Australia (SA) and Victoria. The aim of this study was to investigate the heat-adaptive behaviours of older people in these states. METHODS A computer-assisted telephone survey of 1000 residents of SA and Victoria aged 65 years or older was conducted at the end of summer 2010-2011. RESULTS The majority of respondents reported undertaking heat-adaptive behaviours. In SA, there was a significantly higher proportion of households with air conditioning compared to Victoria, and a higher recall of heat-health messages. In both states, self-reported morbidity during heatwaves was higher in women, persons with poorer health and those with cardiovascular conditions. CONCLUSION An increase in global temperatures in conjunction with an ageing population is a concern for public health. Our findings suggest acclimatisation to hot weather may influence behaviours and health outcomes in older people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alana Hansen
- Discipline of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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Hondula DM, Vanos JK, Gosling SN. The SSC: a decade of climate-health research and future directions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:109-20. [PMID: 23371289 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0619-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2012] [Revised: 11/11/2012] [Accepted: 12/12/2012] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the development of the revised Spatial Synoptic Classification, the "SSC", by Scott Sheridan. This daily weather-type classification scheme has become one of the key analytical tools implemented in a diverse range of climatological investigations, including analysis of air quality variability, human health, vegetation growth, precipitation and snowfall trends, and broader analyses of historical and future climatic variability and trends. The continued and expanding use of the SSC motivates a review and comparison of the system's research and geographic foci to date, with the goal of identifying promising areas for future efforts, particularly within the context of human health and climate change. This review also assesses how the SSC has complemented and compares with other current environmental epidemiological studies in weather and health.
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Affiliation(s)
- D M Hondula
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA,
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Tawatsupa B, Dear K, Kjellstrom T, Sleigh A. The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:203-215. [PMID: 23100101 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0597-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2012] [Revised: 10/03/2012] [Accepted: 10/03/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjawan Tawatsupa
- Health Impact Assessment Division, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand,
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Vanos JK, Cakmak S, Bristow C, Brion V, Tremblay N, Martin SL, Sheridan SS. Synoptic weather typing applied to air pollution mortality among the elderly in 10 Canadian cities. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2013; 126:66-75. [PMID: 24012249 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2013.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2013] [Revised: 07/25/2013] [Accepted: 08/12/2013] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale weather systems) affect ambient levels of air pollution, as well as the relationship between air pollution and human health. OBJECTIVE To investigate the air pollution-mortality relationship within weather types and seasons, and to determine which combination of atmospheric conditions may pose increased health threats in the elderly age categories. METHODS The relative risk of mortality (RR) due to air pollution was examined using Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) within specific weather types. Analysis was completed by weather type and age group (all ages, ≤64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) in ten Canadian cities from 1981 to 1999. RESULTS There was significant modification of RR by weather type and age. When examining the entire population, weather type was shown to have the greatest modifying effect on the risk of dying due to ozone (O3). This effect was highest on average for the dry tropical (DT) weather type, with the all-age RR of mortality at a population weighted mean (PWM) found to be 1.055 (95% CI 1.026-1.085). All-weather type risk estimates increased with age due to exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). On average, RR increased by 2.6, 3.8 and 1.5% for the respective pollutants between the ≤64 and ≥85 age categories. Conversely, mean ozone estimates remained relatively consistent with age. Elevated levels of air pollution were found to be detrimental to the health of elderly individuals for all weather types. However, the entire population was negatively effected by air pollution on the hot dry (DT) and hot humid (MT) days. CONCLUSIONS We identified a significant modification of RR for mortality due to air pollution by age, which is enhanced under specific weather types. Efforts should be targeted at minimizing pollutant exposure to the elderly and/or all age groups with respect to weather type in question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer K Vanos
- Health Canada, Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Population Studies Division, 50 Colombine Driveway, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0K9
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Gómez-Acebo I, Llorca J, Dierssen T. Cold-related mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer: a case-crossover study. Public Health 2013; 127:252-8. [PMID: 23433803 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2012.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2012] [Revised: 08/21/2012] [Accepted: 12/21/2012] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to identify the relationship between low temperatures in winter and mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. STUDY DESIGN Case-crossover study. METHODS A case-crossover study was performed in Cantabria (northern Spain) in the years 2004-2005; 3948 deaths were included. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression, stratified by age, sex, and delay of exposure to low temperatures. RESULTS There was an inverse dose-response relationship between temperature and mortality in the three causes of death studied; this result was consistent across genders and age groups. The higher OR for cancer mortality was seen on the first day of exposure (OR = 4.91; 95% CI: 1.65-13.07 in the whole population), and it decreased when exposure over several days in a row was considered; people aged 75 years or more were especially susceptible to cold temperatures (OR = 17.9; 95% CI: 2.38-134.8). Cardiovascular (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.88-3.67) and respiratory mortality (OR = 2.72; 95% CI: 1.46-5.08) showed a weaker effect. CONCLUSION There is a striking association between the extreme cold temperatures and mortality from cancer, not previously reported, which is more remarkable in the elderly. These results could be explained by a harvesting effect in which the cold acts as a trigger of death in terminally ill patients at high risk of dying a few days or weeks later.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Gómez-Acebo
- Facultad de Medicina, University of Cantabria, Santander, Spain.
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Monteiro A, Carvalho V, Oliveira T, Sousa C. Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2013; 57:155-167. [PMID: 22547142 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0543-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2011] [Revised: 11/23/2011] [Accepted: 03/26/2012] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7-3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6-2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4-4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1-6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3-14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people ≥ 75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7-5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4-5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6-6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1-13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3-18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Monteiro
- Department of Geography, Public Health Institute, Porto University, CITTA, Via Panorâmica s/nº, 4150-564 Porto, Portugal.
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Li Q, Guo NN, Han ZY, Zhang YB, Qi SX, Xu YG, Wei YM, Han X, Liu YY. Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012; 87:364-70. [PMID: 22855772 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
The Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal Syndrome (HFRS) in China during 1986-2009. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) × (2, 1, 0)(12) models fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 1986-December 2009. The fitted model was then used to predict HFRS incidence during 2010, and the number of cases during January-December 2010 fell within the model's confidence interval for the predicted number of cases in 2010. This finding suggests that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Li
- Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China.
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Xu Z, Etzel RA, Su H, Huang C, Guo Y, Tong S. Impact of ambient temperature on children's health: a systematic review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2012; 117:120-31. [PMID: 22831555 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2012.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2012] [Revised: 06/13/2012] [Accepted: 07/05/2012] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Children are vulnerable to temperature extremes. This paper aimed to review the literature regarding the relationship between ambient temperature and children's health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in February 2012 using the databases including PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science. Empirical studies regarding the impact of ambient temperature on children's mortality and morbidity were included. The existing literature indicates that very young children, especially children under one year of age, are particularly vulnerable to heat-related deaths. Hot and cold temperatures mainly affect cases of infectious diseases among children, including gastrointestinal diseases, malaria, hand, foot and mouse disease, and respiratory diseases. Pediatric allergic diseases, like eczema, are also sensitive to temperature extremes. During heat waves, the incidences of renal disease, fever and electrolyte imbalance among children increase significantly. Future research is needed to examine the balance between hot- and cold-temperature related mortality and morbidity among children; evaluate the impacts of cold spells on cause-specific mortality in children; identify the most sensitive temperature exposure and health outcomes to quantify the impact of temperature extremes on children; elucidate the possible modifiers of the temperature and children's health relationship; and project children's disease burden under different climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, 4059 Qld, Australia
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Tobias A, Armstrong B, Zuza I, Gasparrini A, Linares C, Diaz J. Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis. BMC Public Health 2012; 12:133. [PMID: 22340020 PMCID: PMC3314548 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2011] [Accepted: 02/17/2012] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September) for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR) of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.19-1.30]). Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%). Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
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Wang YC, Lin YK, Chuang CY, Li MH, Chou CH, Liao CH, Sung FC. Associating emergency room visits with first and prolonged extreme temperature event in Taiwan: A population-based cohort study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2012; 416:97-104. [PMID: 22209370 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.11.073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2011] [Revised: 11/27/2011] [Accepted: 11/28/2011] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
The present study evaluated emergency room visit (ERV) risks for all causes and cardiopulmonary diseases associated with temperature and long-lasting extreme temperatures from 2000 to 2009 in four major cities in Taiwan. The city-specific daily average temperatures at the high 95th, 97th, and 99th percentiles, and the low 10th, 5th, and 1st percentiles were defined as extreme heat and cold. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the cumulative relative risk (RR) of ERV for morbidities associated with temperatures (0 to 3-day lags), extreme heat and cold lasting for 2 to 9 days or longer, and with the annual first extreme heat or cold event after controlling for covariates. Low temperatures were associated with slightly higher ERV risks than high temperatures for circulatory diseases. After accounting for 4-day cumulative temperature effect, the ERV risks for all causes and respiratory diseases were found to be associated with extreme cold at the 5th percentile lasting for >8 days and 1st percentile lasting for >3 days. The annual first extreme cold event of 5th percentile or lower temperatures was also significantly associated with ERV, with RRs ranging from 1.09 to 1.12 for all causes and from 1.15 to 1.26 for respiratory diseases. The annual first extreme heat event of 99th percentile temperature was associated with higher ERV for all causes and circulatory diseases. Annual first extreme temperature event and intensified prolonged extreme cold events are associated with increased ERVs in Taiwan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Chun Wang
- Department of Bioenvironmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Chung Li 320, Taiwan
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Montero JC, Mirón IJ, Criado-Álvarez JJ, Linares C, Díaz J. Influence of local factors in the relationship between mortality and heat waves: Castile-La Mancha (1975-2003). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2012; 414:73-80. [PMID: 22154213 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2011] [Revised: 10/03/2011] [Accepted: 10/05/2011] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION All the climate-change studies undertaken to date agree that one of the principal consequences of this phenomenon is the increase in heat waves, which, without exception, are linked to marked rises in mortality. The characteristics that modulate and determine the relationship between high temperatures and health must therefore be ascertained in the greatest possible detail, so that really effective prevention plans can be designed to address temperature extremes. METHODS We examined the effect of heat waves on daily non-accidental-cause mortality across all age groups in the Castile-La Mancha region (Spain) from 1975 to 2003. Quantitative analyses were performed using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, with other covariates, such as pressure trends, relative humidity, and duration and chronological number of heat waves. RESULTS Mortality increased significantly with respect to the mean, when temperatures exceeded the designated provincial thresholds in Castile-La Mancha. For each degree centigrade that temperatures exceeded these thresholds, the percentage increase in mortality amounted to increases of approximately 12% over the daily mean, albeit with clear provincial variations. The longest heat waves were associated with daily mortality, with those at the end of summer causing the lowest mortality. Meteorological situations most closely associated with increases in mortality were cyclonic conditions accompanied by low humidity. CONCLUSIONS Spatio-temporal variability in the temperature-mortality relationship must be studied in order to enable really effective heat-wave prevention plans to be drawn up. The influence of variables, such as heat-wave duration or time of appearance, is important in the total increase in mortality during temperature extremes. Since parameters, such as humidity or pressure trends, can play very different roles in different geographical settings, they should be analysed separately from temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- J C Montero
- Health Sciences Institute, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Welfare Authority, Talavera de la Reina, Toledo, Spain.
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Miron IJ, Montero JC, Criado-Alvarez JJ, Linares C, Díaz J. Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2012; 56:145-52. [PMID: 21312043 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-011-0407-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2010] [Revised: 10/17/2010] [Accepted: 12/21/2010] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Studies on temperature-mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975-1989 and 1990-2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly (p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of -3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990-2003. The significant number of lags (p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5-2-0), Cuenca (4-2-0), Albacete (4-3-0) and Ciudad Real (3-2-1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isidro J Miron
- Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Welfare Authority (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos (Toledo), Spain.
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Kim YM, Kim S, Cheong HK, Ahn B, Choi K. Effects of heat wave on body temperature and blood pressure in the poor and elderly. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND TOXICOLOGY 2012; 27:e2012013. [PMID: 22888472 PMCID: PMC3412201 DOI: 10.5620/eht.2012.27.e2012013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2011] [Accepted: 04/24/2012] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aimed to investigate the acute effects of heat stress on body temperature and blood pressure of elderly individuals living in poor housing conditions. METHODS Repeated measurements of the indoor temperature, relative humidity, body temperature, and blood pressure were conducted for 20 elderly individuals living in low-cost dosshouses in Seoul during hot summer days in 2010. Changes in the body temperature, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) according to variations in the indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity were analyzed using a repeated-measures ANOVA controlling for age, sex, alcohol, and smoking. RESULTS Average indoor and outdoor temperatures were 31.47℃ (standard deviation [SD], 0.97℃) and 28.15℃ (SD, 2.03℃), respectively. Body temperature increased by 0.21℃ (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.26℃) and 0.07℃ (95% CI, 0.04 to 0.10℃) with an increase in the indoor and outdoor temperature of 1℃. DBP decreased by 2.05 mmHg (95% CI, 0.05 to 4.05 mmHg), showing a statistical significance, as the indoor temperature increased by 1℃, while it increased by 0.20 mmHg (95% CI, -0.83 to 1.22 mmHg) as outdoor temperature increased by 1℃. SBP decreased by 1.75 mmHg (95% CI, -1.11 to 4.61 mmHg) and 0.35 mmHg (95% CI, -1.04 to 1.73 mmHg), as the indoor and outdoor temperature increased by 1℃, respectively. The effects of relative humidity on SBP and DBP were not statistically significant for both indoor and outdoor. CONCLUSIONS The poor and elderly are directly exposed to heat waves, while their vital signs respond sensitively to increase in temperature. Careful adaptation strategies to climate change considering socioeconomic status are therefore necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Young-Min Kim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Soyeon Kim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Hae-Kwan Cheong
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Byungok Ahn
- Institute for Climate Change Action, Seoul, Korea
| | - Kyusik Choi
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
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Lin YK, Ho TJ, Wang YC. Mortality risk associated with temperature and prolonged temperature extremes in elderly populations in Taiwan. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2011; 111:1156-1163. [PMID: 21767832 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2011.06.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2010] [Revised: 06/03/2011] [Accepted: 06/23/2011] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study investigated mortality risks from all causes, circulatory and respiratory diseases for the elderly associated with prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures in four major cities of Taiwan. METHODS Daily average temperatures at the high 99th, 97th, and 95th percentiles were defined as extreme heat, and those at the low 10th, 5th, and 1st percentiles were defined as extreme cold for each city in 1994-2007. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality associated with 30-day lag temperature, and heat and cold extremes lasting for 3-5, 6-8, and >8 days. The random-effects meta-analysis summarized the risks of temperature and extreme temperatures events. RESULTS The lowest overall mortality among the elderly was when the temperature was 26 °C on average. Low temperatures caused greater adverse effects than high temperatures, particularly for mortality from circulatory diseases. After accounting for the cumulative 30-day temperature effects, meta-analysis showed that mortality risk slightly increased with strengthened and prolonged heat extremes (≥99th and >3 days; ≥97th and >8 days; and ≥95th and >8 days) that RRs ranged from 1.04-1.05, 1.01-1.05, and 1.05-1.13 for mortality from all causes and from circulatory and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding RRs ranged from 0.98-1.01, 0.92-1.06, and 0.97-1.03, respectively, for shorter duration of heat extremes. This study did not identify significant effect for stronger or prolonged cold extremes. CONCLUSIONS Extreme temperatures and their duration cause varied mortality associations in the elderly. Short-term extremely low temperatures exhibit the greatest effect on mortality, and intensified and longer periods of heat extremes also exert a slightly increased effect on mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Kai Lin
- Institute of Environmental Health, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, 17 Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei 100, Taiwan
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Yackerson NS, Zilberman A, Todder D, Kaplan Z. The influence of several changes in atmospheric states over semi-arid areas on the incidence of mental health disorders. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2011; 55:403-410. [PMID: 20668888 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-010-0350-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2009] [Revised: 02/03/2010] [Accepted: 07/12/2010] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The incidence of suicide attempts [Deliberate Self Harm (DSH); ICD-10: X60-X84] and psychotic attacks (PsA; ICD-10, F20-F29) in association with atmospheric states, typical for areas close to big deserts, was analyzed. A retrospective study is based on the 4,325 cases of DSH and PsA registered in the Mental Health Center (MHC) of Ben-Gurion University (Be'er-Sheva, Israel) during 2001-2003. Pearson and Spearman test correlations were used; the statistical significance was tested at p < 0.1. The influence of temperature and humidity on suicide attempts (N(SU)) and psychotic attacks (N(PS)) was weakly pronounced (p > 0.1). Correlation coefficients between N(SU) and N(PS) and speed WS of westerly wind reaches 0.3 (p < 0.05), while their dependence on easterly WS was weaker (p > 0.09). Variations in easterly wind direction WD influence N(SU) and N(PS) values (p < 0.04), but no corresponding correlation with westerly winds was found (p > 0.3). Obviously ,in transition areas located between different regions ,the main role of air streams in meteorological-biological impact can scarcely be exaggerated. An unstable balance in the internal state of a weather-sensitive person is disturbed when the atmospheric state is changed by specific desert winds, which can provoke significant perturbations in meteorological parameters. Results indicate the importance of wind direction, defining mainly the atmospheric situation in semi-arid areas: changes in direction of the easterly wind influence N(SU) and N(PS), while changes in WS are important for mental health under westerly air streams. Obviously, N(SU) and N(PS) are more affected by the disturbance of weather from its normal state, for a given season, to which the local population is accustomed, than by absolute values of meteorological parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naomy S Yackerson
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel
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Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X, Huang C, Tong S. A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality. PLoS One 2011; 6:e16511. [PMID: 21311772 PMCID: PMC3032790 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2010] [Accepted: 01/04/2011] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. METHOD Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. RESULTS In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥ 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. CONCLUSION A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Adrian G. Barnett
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Weiwei Yu
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaofang Ye
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
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Pillemer K, Wells NM, Wagenet LP, Meador RH, Parise JT. Environmental Sustainability in an Aging Society: A Research Agenda. J Aging Health 2010; 23:433-53. [DOI: 10.1177/0898264310381278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Objectives. This article presents the results of a multidisciplinary consensus conference held to recommend a research agenda on the relationship between aging and environmental sustainability and conservation. The intersection of these two topics has important implications for the health and well-being of older persons but it has thus far received little scientific attention. Methods. The consensus conference was conducted with gerontological experts from various disciplines and environmental scientists. Using a structured methodology, participants achieved consensus on recommendations for a research agenda on aging and environmental sustainability. Results. Eight major recommendations for research are detailed in this article as well as cross-cutting research themes affecting all areas, including racial and economic diversity, geographical region, cohort, and intergenerational linkages. Discussion. Given the vulnerability of older persons to environmental threats detailed by the consensus conference, conferees recommended that research on these topics be urgently promoted, both by researchers and by funding agencies.
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Climate change and mortality in Vienna--a human biometeorological analysis based on regional climate modeling. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2010; 7:2965-77. [PMID: 20717552 PMCID: PMC2922739 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7072965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2010] [Revised: 07/08/2010] [Accepted: 07/09/2010] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
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Cueto ROG, Martínez AT, Ostos EJ. Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2010; 54:335-345. [PMID: 20012753 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-009-0283-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2008] [Revised: 10/27/2009] [Accepted: 11/27/2009] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.
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Mirón IJ, Montero JC, Criado-Alvarez JJ, Díaz J, Linares C. [Effects of temperature extremes on daily mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): trends from 1975 to 2003]. GACETA SANITARIA 2010; 24:117-22. [PMID: 20106557 DOI: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2009.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2009] [Revised: 10/09/2009] [Accepted: 10/13/2009] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine time trends and the geographical distribution of mortality trigger temperature thresholds due to extreme temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (central Spain) between 1975 and 2003. METHODS The analysis was divided into three periods (1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003) for each province of the region. Daily mortality due to organic causes (dependent variable) was modelled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedures. The resulting residual series was related to the maximum temperature series grouped in 2 degrees C intervals to obtain a threshold temperature for cold or heat when the residuals rose significantly (p<0,05) above the mean residual mortality value of the corresponding study period. RESULTS Mortality trigger temperature thresholds decreased over time in Castile- La Mancha. In Toledo, the trigger temperature diminished from 40 degrees C to 38 degrees C. In Cuenca and Guadalajara, threshold temperatures for heat events were obtained in the last few decades but not in the first. These thresholds varied from the 92nd percentile in Cuenca to the 98th percentile in Albacete in the last decade. No threshold temperatures for cold spells were observed in any province or period. CONCLUSIONS Castile-La Mancha registered an upward trend in the relationship between high temperatures and mortality, probably due to population aging. This trend could have been influenced by the increased frequency of extremely hot days. Prevention plans should be periodically reviewed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isidro J Mirón
- Distrito de Salud de Torrijos, Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social, Toledo, Spain.
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