Pretreatment prediction of response to peginterferon plus ribavirin therapy in genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C using data mining analysis

Platelet count is associated with sustained virological response rates in treatments for chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This study was conducted to clarify the sustained virological response (SVR) prediction ability of baseline and treatment-related factors in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

This retrospective study collected data at four tertiary referral hospitals between June 2004 and July 2012. Out of 476 patients, 330 treatment-naïve patients with chronic HCV infection were recruited. Pegylated interferon α-2a/- 2b plus ribavirin was administered for either 24 or 48 weeks depending on the HCV genotype. The baseline and treatment-related predictive factors of SVR were evaluated by analyzing data measured before treatment (i.e., baseline) and during treatment.

RESULTS

SVR rates for genotypes 1 and 2 were 63% (97/154) and 79.5% (140/176), respectively (p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis for baseline factors revealed that young age (p = 0.009), genotype 2 (p = 0.001), HCV RNA level of < 800,000 IU/mL (p < 0.001), and a baseline platelet count of > 150 × 103 /µL (p < 0.001) were significant SVR predictors, regardless of the genotype. In particular, predictive accuracy for achievement of SVR was 87.3% for a baseline platelet count of > 150 × 103 /µL. In multivariate analysis for treatment-related factors, SVR was associated with achievement of a rapid virological response (RVR; p < 0.001), treatment adherence of ≥ 80/80/80 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Young age, genotype 2, low HCV RNA level, RVR, and treatment adherence were significantly associated with SVR. In addition, platelet count was an independent predictive factor for SVR. Therefore, platelet count could be used to develop individualized treatment regimens and to optimize treatment outcomes in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Patterns of Caregiver Factors Predicting Participation in Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

This study examined patterns of caregiver factors associated with Trauma- Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (TF-CBT) utilization among trauma-exposed youth. This study included 41 caregivers (caregiver age M = 36.1, SD = 9.88; 93% African American) of youth referred for TF-CBT, following a substantiated forensic assessment of youth trauma exposure. Prior to enrolling in TF-CBT, caregivers reported on measures for parenting stress, attitudes towards treatment, functional impairment, caregiver mental health diagnosis, and caregiver trauma experiences. Classification and regression tree methodology were used to address study aims. Predictors of enrollment and completion included: attitudes towards treatment, caregiver trauma experiences, and parenting stress. Several caregiver factors predicting youth service utilization were identified. Findings suggest screening for caregivers' attitudes towards therapy, parenting stress, and trauma history is warranted to guide providers in offering caregiver-youth dyads appropriate resources at intake that can lead to increased engagement in treatment services.

A model predicting short-term mortality in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis and concomitant infection

Infection is a common cause of death in patients with advanced cirrhosis. We aimed to develop a predictive model in Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class C cirrhotics hospitalized with infection for optimizing treatment and improving outcomes.Clinical information was retrospectively abstracted from 244 patients at Tianjin Third Central Hospital, China (cohort 1). Factors associated with mortality were determined using logistic regression. The model for predicting 90-day mortality was then constructed by decision tree analysis. The model was further validated in 91 patients at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (cohort 2) and 82 patients at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Korea (cohort 3). The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of the CTP, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and the North American consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) models.The 3-month mortality was 58%, 58%, and 54% in cohort 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In cohort 1, respiratory failure, renal failure, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, and neutrophil percentage were determinants of 3-month mortality, with odds ratios of 16.6, 3.3, 2.0, 1.1, and 1.03, respectively (P < .05). These parameters were incorporated into the decision tree model, yielding area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.804. The model had excellent reproducibility in the U.S. (AUROC 0.808) and Korea cohort (AUROC 0.809). The proposed model has the highest AUROC and best Youden index of 0.488 and greatest overall correctness of 75%, compared with other models evaluated.The proposed model reliably predicts survival of advanced cirrhotics with infection in both Asian and U.S.

GAMMA GLUTAMYLTRANSFERASE IMPACT IN THERAPEUTIC RESPONSE OF CHRONIC HEPATITIS C: a systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

The standard treatment of chronic hepatitis C is the administration of pegylated interferon α2a or α2b in combination with ribavirin, but adverse effects can be observed, as well as the high cost of this therapy. Therefore, there is interest in understanding the predictors of sustained virologic response, as the gamma glutamyltransferase.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the serum levels of gamma glutamyltransferase as a predictor of response to treatment with pegylated interferon α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

This is a systematic review of literature, conducted by consulting PUBMED, LILACS, MEDLINE, SCOPUS, Cochrane electronic databases, and active search of articles selected between January 2000 and April 2013.

RESULTS

A total of 4,785 titles were identified. Out of those material, following inclusion and exclusion criteria, 273 abstracts were selected, by two independent researchers. After reading those texts, the reviewers consensually included ten studies for systematization and classification, according to the criteria of the Oxford Scale. 1B studies are predominant (prospective cohort study - six studies). Rapid virologic response and early virological response were considered as estimates for the sustained virological response. The frequency of virologic response was identified in three studies and early virological response in two, with a total of 392 and 413 patients, respectively; sustained virologic response was reported in nine articles corresponding to 3,787 patients (76.5 %).

CONCLUSION

Gamma glutamyltransferase is a predictor of sustained virologic response in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C with pegylated interferon α2a or α2b associated with ribavirin.

Predictors of Virological Response in 3,235 Chronic HCV Egyptian Patients Treated with Peginterferon Alpha-2a Compared with Peginterferon Alpha-2b Using Statistical Methods and Data Mining Techniques

Despite the appearance of new oral antiviral drugs, pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)/RBV may remain the standard of care therapy for some time, and several viral and host factors are reported to be correlated with therapeutic effects. This study aimed to reveal the independent variables associated with failure of sustained virological response (SVR) to PEG-IFN alpha-2a versus PEG-IFN alpha-2b in treatment of naive chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) Egyptian patients using both statistical methods and data mining techniques. This retrospective cohort study included 3,235 chronic hepatitis C patients enrolled in a large Egyptian medical center: 1,728 patients had been treated with PEG-IFN alpha-2a plus ribavirin (RBV) and 1,507 patients with PEG-IFN alpha-2b plus RBV between 2007 and 2011. Both multivariate analysis and Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree)-based model were used to reveal the independent variables associated with treatment response. In both treatment types, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >10 ng/mL and HCV viremia >600 × 10(3) IU/mL were the independent baseline variables associated with failure of SVR, while male gender, decreased hemoglobin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone were the independent variables associated with good response (P < 0.05). Using REPTree-based model showed that low AFP was the factor of initial split (best predictor) of response for either PEG-IFN alpha-2a or PEG-IFN alpha-2b (cutoff value 8.53, 4.89 ng/mL, AUROC = 0.68 and 0.61, P = 0.05). Serum AFP >10 ng/mL and viral load >600 × 10(3) IU/mL are variables associated with failure of response in both treatment types. REPTree-based model could be used to assess predictors of response.

Randomized trial of low-dose peginterferon α-2b plus low and escalating doses of ribavirin in older patients with chronic hepatitis C with high viral load genotype 1

Elderly patients with chronic hepatitis C cannot tolerate standard combination therapy of peginterferon and ribavirin, which remains the backbone of therapy in many countries, including Japan. The efficacy and safety of low-dose peginterferon α-2b in combination with low and escalating doses of ribavirin in older patients with high viral load genotype 1 were investigated in this randomized controlled trial. Thirty-two patients (age ≥ 60 years) were randomized into standard (group 1) or low (group 2) doses of peginterferon α-2b in combination with low and escalating doses of ribavirin. Patients were evaluated for safety and efficacy of treatment. There was a higher virological response rate in group 1 than in group 2. However, the response in men was higher than in women in the early treatment phase and 24 weeks after treatment (P = 0.008). There was no significant difference between the two groups in the virological response rate in men and women. Completion of therapy was higher in group 2 than in group 1 (31% vs. 13%, P = 0.200). Dose modification of ribavirin was less frequent in group 2 than in group 1 (69% vs. 88%, P = 0.200). These data suggest that combination therapy with low-dose peginterferon plus low and escalating doses of ribavirin may be safer in older patients than that with standard dose peginterferon, without impairing the treatment response.

Identifying candidates with favorable prognosis following liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Data mining analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The optimal cutoff of each value in configuring selection criteria for pre-transplant assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain.

METHODS

To build a predictive model for recurrent HCC, we performed data mining analysis on patients who underwent LT for HCC at University Health Network (n = 246). The model was externally validated using a cohort from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database (n = 9,769).

RESULTS

Among 246 patients, 14.6% (n = 36) experienced recurrent HCC within 2.5 years post-LT. The risk prediction model for recurrent HCC identified two subgroups with low-risk (total tumor diameter [TTD] <4 cm and serum alpha-fetoprotein [AFP] <73 ng/ml, n = 135) and with high-risk (TTD >4 cm and/or AFP >73 ng/ml, n = 111). The reproducibility of the model was validated through the SRTR database; overall patient survival rate was significantly better in low-risk group than high-risk group (P < 0.0001). Using Cox regression model, this yardstick, not Milan criteria, was revealed to efficiently predict post-transplant survival independent of underlying characteristics (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Grouping LT candidates with pre-LT HCC by the cutoffs of TTD 4 cm and AFP 73 ng/ml which were unearthed by data mining analysis efficiently classify patients according by the post-transplant prognosis.

Advanced molecular surveillance of hepatitis C virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important public health problem worldwide. HCV exploits complex molecular mechanisms, which result in a high degree of intrahost genetic heterogeneity. This high degree of variability represents a challenge for the accurate establishment of genetic relatedness between cases and complicates the identification of sources of infection. Tracking HCV infections is crucial for the elucidation of routes of transmission in a variety of settings. Therefore, implementation of HCV advanced molecular surveillance (AMS) is essential for disease control. Accounting for virulence is also important for HCV AMS and both viral and host factors contribute to the disease outcome. Therefore, HCV AMS requires the incorporation of host factors as an integral component of the algorithms used to monitor disease occurrence. Importantly, implementation of comprehensive global databases and data mining are also needed for the proper study of the mechanisms responsible for HCV transmission. Here, we review molecular aspects associated with HCV transmission, as well as the most recent technological advances used for virus and host characterization. Additionally, the cornerstone discoveries that have defined the pathway for viral characterization are presented and the importance of implementing advanced HCV molecular surveillance is highlighted.

Randomized trial of peginterferon alpha-2b plus low and escalating dose of ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C with high viral load genotype 1

It has been reported that elderly patients with chronic hepatitis C infection cannot tolerate standard combination therapy. In this randomized, controlled trial, the efficacy and safety of peginterferon alpha-2b plus a low and escalating dose of ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C patients with high viral load genotype 1 were investigated. Sixty-two patients were randomized into combination therapy with standard ribavirin dosing (group 1) or low and escalating ribavirin dosing (group 2). Patients were evaluated for safety and efficacy of treatment. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of virological response between the groups throughout the treatment as well as 24 weeks after treatment. However, the response in patients ≥60 years of age was higher in group 1 than in group 2 at early treatment phase (P = 0.015). The prevalence of completion of therapy in patients ≥60 years of age tended to be higher in group 2 than in group 1 (50% vs. 0%, P = 0.055). There was no significant difference in dose modification of peginterferon alpha-2b between the groups. However, dose modification of ribavirin was significantly more frequent in group 1 than in group 2 (60% vs. 24%, P = 0.005). These data suggest that combination therapy with low and escalating dosing of ribavirin may be safer in elderly patients than that with standard dosing of ribavirin without impairing the treatment response.

MHC class I-related chain B gene polymorphism is associated with virological response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection

The outcome of antiviral therapy is associated with viral and host factors. In the present study, the association between MHC class I-related chain B (MICB) genotypes and therapeutic response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) therapy was investigated in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. In total, 107 patients with chronic HCV infection (74 with HCV serotype 1 and 33 with serotype 2) were enrolled. Genotyping of MICB single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3828913 and interleukin-28B (IL28B) SNP rs8099917 was performed using TaqMan^® SNP genotyping assays. The genotype distribution of the MICB alleles was: CC, 79.4%; CA, 17.8%; and AA, 2.8%. Sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved by 55.1% (59/107) of the HCV patients. The SVR rate of patients with MICB major (CC) alleles was 62.3% and this rate was significantly higher than that of the patients with MICB minor (CA and AA) alleles (27.2%) (P=0.0068). A multivariate logistic model showed that the MICB major genotype was an independent factor contributing to SVR (OR, 4.47; 95% CI, 1.46-13.70; P=0.009). In addition, the MICB genotype was identified as the sole independent factor contributing to SVR and non-virological response in HCV serotype 1 patients with the IL28B major genotype. In HCV serotype 2 patients, the MICB genotype was the sole significant factor contributing to SVR (OR, 30.68; 95% CI, 2.72-346.3; P=0.006). In conclusion, the MICB genotype is a strong predictive factor for virological response to PEG-IFN/RBV therapy in HCV patients.

Developing screening services for colorectal cancer on Android smartphones

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important health problem in Western countries and also in Asia. It is the third leading cause of cancer deaths in both men and women in Taiwan. According to the well-known adenoma-to-carcinoma sequence, the majority of CRC develops from colorectal adenomatous polyps. This concept provides the rationale for screening and prevention of CRC. Removal of colorectal adenoma could reduce the mortality and incidence of CRC. Mobile phones are now playing an ever more crucial role in people's daily lives. The latest generation of smartphones is increasingly viewed as hand-held computers rather than as phones, because of their powerful on-board computing capability, capacious memories, large screens, and open operating systems that encourage development of applications (apps).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

If we can detect the potential CRC patients early and offer them appropriate treatments and services, this would not only promote the quality of life, but also reduce the possible serious complications and medical costs. In this study, an intelligent CRC screening app on Android™ (Google™, Mountain View, CA) smartphones has been developed based on a data mining approach using decision tree algorithms. For comparison, the stepwise backward multivariate logistic regression model and the fecal occult blood test were also used.

RESULTS

Compared with the stepwise backward multivariate logistic regression model and the fecal occult blood test, the proposed app system not only provides an easy and efficient way to quickly detect high-risk groups of potential CRC patients, but also brings more information about CRC to customer-oriented services.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and implemented an app system on Android platforms for ubiquitous healthcare services for CRC screening. It can assist people in achieving early screening, diagnosis, and treatment purposes, prevent the occurrence of complications, and thus reach the goal of preventive medicine.

Serum apolipoprotein B-100 concentration predicts the virological response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin combination therapy in patients infected with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1b

Host lipoprotein metabolism is associated closely with the life cycle of hepatitis C virus (HCV), and serum lipid profiles have been linked to the response to pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy. Polymorphisms in the human IL28B gene and amino acid substitutions in the core and interferon sensitivity-determining region (ISDR) in NS5A of HCV genotype 1b (G1b) were also shown to strongly affect the outcome of Peg-IFN plus RBV therapy. In this study, an observational cohort study was performed in 247 HCV G1b-infected patients to investigate whether the response to Peg-IFN and RBV combination therapy in these patients is independently associated with the level of lipid factors, especially apolipoprotein B-100 (apoB-100), an obligatory structural component of very low density lipoprotein and low density lipoprotein. The multivariate logistic analysis subsequently identified apoB-100 (odds ratio (OR), 1.602; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.046-2.456), alpha-fetoprotein (OR, 0.764; 95% CI, 0.610-0.958), non-wild-type ISDR (OR, 5.617; 95% CI, 1.274-24.754), and the rs8099917 major genotype (OR, 34.188; 95% CI, 10.225-114.308) as independent factors affecting rapid initial virological response (decline in HCV RNA levels by ≥3-log10 at week 4). While lipid factors were not independent predictors of complete early or sustained virological response, the serum apoB-100 level was an independent factor for sustained virological response in patients carrying the rs8099917 hetero/minor genotype. Together, we conclude that serum apoB-100 concentrations could predict virological response to Peg-IFN plus RBV combination therapy in patients infected with HCV G1b, especially in those with the rs8099917 hetero/minor genotype.

The role of pharmacogenetics in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronically infects 170 million people worldwide. Until recently, combination therapy with peginterferon-α (pegIFN) and ribavirin (RBV) has been the standard of care. However, for many patients, especially those infected with the most common HCV genotype 1 (HCV-1), this treatment has resulted in unsatisfactory treatment response rates. Many clinical factors, including pharmacogenetics, influence the treatment response rate. Genetic variation in the interleukin 28B (IL28B) gene is the major determinant of treatment response, a finding that has been replicated in multiple independent cohorts. This review focuses on the association between pharmacogenetics and conventional pegIFN/RBV therapy in patients infected with HCV non-genotype 1; patients reinfected with HCV after liver transplantation; and patients coinfected with HCV and human immunodeficiency virus. We also review the pharmacogenetic data for boceprevir and telaprevir triple therapy in patients with HCV-1 infection, as well as viral genomic polymorphisms and genetic variants that may protect against anemia. Pharmacogenetic information offers a personalized medicine approach to help clinicians and patients make better informed decisions to maximize response and minimize toxicity for the treatment of chronic HCV infection.

Prediction of response to pegylated interferon/ribavirin combination therapy for chronic hepatitis C genotypes 2a and 2b and high viral load

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the impact of host genetics represented by the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the IL28B gene and viral genetic variations within the nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) [including the interferon (IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) resistance-determining region (IRRDR) and the IFN sensitivity-determining region (ISDR)] on the outcome of pegylated IFN and RBV (PEG-IFN/RBV) treatment.

METHODS

Sixty-six patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-2a or HCV-2b who received PEG-IFN/RBV for 24 weeks were examined.

RESULTS

In HCV-2a, the major genotype of IL28B SNP showed a tendency toward association with sustained virological response (SVR) and rapid virological response (RVR), and four or more mutations in IRRDR (IRRDR[2a] ≥4) and one or more mutations in ISDR plus its carboxyl-flanking region (ISDR/+C[2a] ≥1) were significantly associated with SVR and RVR. In HCV-2b, one or more mutations in the N-terminal part of IRRDR (IRRDR/N[2b] ≥1) were significantly associated with RVR. Multivariate analysis identified the major genotype of IL28B SNP and IRRDR[2a] ≥4 as independent predictive factors of SVR in HCV-2a, with IRRDR[2a] ≥4 being more powerful than the IL28B SNP. Also, IRRDR[2a] ≥4 in HCV-2a and IRRDR/N[2b] ≥1 in HCV-2b were significant determiners of RVR.

CONCLUSION

The NS5A sequence heterogeneity and IL28B SNP are useful factors to predict the sensitivity to PEG-IFN/RBV therapy in HCV-2a and HCV-2b infections.

Dual role of IL-12 in the therapeutic efficacy or failure during combined PEG-Interferon-α2A and ribavirin therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Several efforts have been made to establish novel biomarkers with relevant predictive values to monitor HCV-infected patients under pegilated Interferon-α2A-(PEG-IFN-α2A)/ribavirin therapy. The aim of this study was to monitor the kinetics of HCV viral load, serum levels of pro-inflammatory/regulatory cytokines and leukocyte activation status before and after PEG-IFN-α2A/ribavirin therapy in 52 volunteers, including 12 chronic HCV patients and 40 controls. The HCV viral load, serum levels of cytokines (IL-8/IL-6/TNF-α/IL-12/IFN-γ/IL-4/IL-10) and the phenotype of peripheral blood leukocytes were evaluated before and after 4, 12 and 24 weeks following the PEG-IFN-α2A/ribavirin therapy. Our results demonstrated that sustained virological response-(SVR) is associated with early decrease in the viral load after 4 weeks of treatment. The presence of a modulated pro-inflammatory profile at baseline favors SVR, whereas a strong inflammatory response at baseline predisposes to therapeutic failure. Furthermore, a time-dependent increase on serum IL-12 levels in patients under treatment is critical to support the SVR, while the early predominance of IL-10 correlates to late virological relapse. On the other hand, a broad but unguided "cytokine storm" is observed in the non-responder HCV patients after 12 weeks of treatment. Corroborating these findings, monocyte/lymphocyte activation at baseline is associated with the non-responders to therapy whereas high CD8(+) T-cell numbers associate with SVR. All in all, these data suggest that the baseline pattern of serum pro-inflammatory/regulatory cytokines and the immunological activation status of chronic HCV patients undergoing PEG-IFN-α2A/ribavirin therapy are closely related with the therapeutic response.

The impact of interleukin 28b gene polymorphism on the virological response to combined pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy in chronic HCV genotype 4 infected egyptian patients using data mining analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic HCV represents one of the common causes of chronic liver disease worldwide with Egypt having the highest prevalence, namely genotype 4. Interleukin IL-28B gene polymorphism has been shown to relate to HCV treatment response, mainly in genotype1.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to evaluate the predictive power of the rs12979860 IL28B SNP and its protein for treatment response in genotype 4 Egyptian patients by regression analysis and decision tree analysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included 263 chronic HCV Egyptian patients receiving peg-interferon and ribavirin therapy. Patients were classified into 3 groups; non responders (83patients), relapsers (76patients) and sustained virological responders (104 patients). Serum IL 28 B was performed, DNA was extracted and analyzed by direct sequencing of the SNP rs 12979860 of IL28B gene.

RESULTS

CT, CC and TT represented 56 %, 25 % and 19% of the patients, respectively. Absence of C allele (TT genotype) was significantly correlated with the early failure of response while CC was associated with sustained virological response. The decision tree showed that baseline alpha fetoprotein (AFP ≤ 2.68 ng/ml) was the variable of initial split (the strongest predictor of response) confirmed by regression analysis. Patients with TT genotype had the highest probability of failure of response.

CONCLUSIONS

Absence of the C allele was significantly associated with failure of response. The presence of C allele was associated with a favorable outcome. AFP is a strong baseline predictor of HCV treatment response. A decision tree model is useful for predicting the probability of response to therapy.

Role of different regions of the hepatitis C virus genome in the therapeutic response to interferon-based treatment

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is considered a significant risk factor in HCV-induced liver diseases and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nucleotide substitutions in the viral genome result in its diversification into quasispecies, subtypes and distinct genotypes. Different genotypes vary in their infectivity and immune response due to these nucleotide/amino acid variations. The current combination treatment for HCV infection is pegylated interferon α (PEG-IFN-α) with ribavirin, with a highly variable response rate mainly depending upon the HCV genotype. Genotypes 2 and 3 are found to respond better than genotypes 1 and 4, which are more resistant to IFN-based therapies. Different studies have been conducted worldwide to explore the basis of this difference in therapy response, which identified some putative regions in the HCV genome, especially in Core and NS5a, and to some extent in the E2 region, containing specific sequences in different genotypes that act differently with respect to the IFN response. In the review, we try to summarize the role of HCV proteins and their nucleotide sequences in association with treatment outcome in IFN-based therapy.

The assessment of data mining for the prediction of therapeutic outcome in 3719 Egyptian patients with chronic hepatitis C

INTRODUCTION

Decision-tree analysis; a core component of data mining analysis can build predictive models for the therapeutic outcome to antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients.

AIM

To develop a prediction model for the end virological response (ETR) to pegylated interferon PEG-IFN plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy in chronic HCV patients using routine clinical, laboratory, and histopathological data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective initial data (19 attributes) from 3719 Egyptian patients with chronic HCV presumably genotype-4 was assigned to model building using the J48 decision tree-inducing algorithm (Weka implementation of C4.5). All patients received PEG-IFN plus RBV at Cairo-Fatemia Hospital, Cairo, Egypt in the context of the national treatment program. Factors predictive of ETR were explored and patients were classified into seven subgroups according to the different rates of ETR. The universality of the decision-tree model was subjected to a 10-fold cross-internal validation in addition to external validation using an independent dataset collected of 200 chronic HCV patients.

RESULTS

At week 48, overall ETR was 54% according to intention to treat protocol. The decision-tree model included AFP level (<8.08 ng/ml) which was associated with high probability of ETR (73%) followed by stages of fibrosis and Hb levels according to the patients' gender followed by the age of patients.

CONCLUSION

In a decision-tree model for the prediction for antiviral therapy in chronic HCV patients, AFP level was the initial split variable at a cutoff of 8.08 ng/ml. This model could represent a potential tool to identify patients' likelihood of response among difficult-to-treat presumably genotype-4 chronic HCV patients and could support clinical decisions regarding the proper selection of patients for therapy without imposing any additional costs.

Model incorporating the ITPA genotype identifies patients at high risk of anemia and treatment failure with pegylated-interferon plus ribavirin therapy for chronic hepatitis C

This study aimed to develop a model for predicting anemia using the inosine triphosphatase (ITPA) genotype and to evaluate its relationship with treatment outcome. Patients with genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C (n = 446) treated with peg-interferon alpha and ribavirin (RBV) for 48 weeks were genotyped for the ITPA (rs1127354) and IL28B (rs8099917) genes. Data mining analysis generated a predictive model for anemia (hemoglobin (Hb) concentration <10 g/dl); the CC genotype of ITPA, baseline Hb <14.0 g/dl, and low creatinine clearance (CLcr) were predictors of anemia. The incidence of anemia was highest in patients with Hb <14.0 g/dl and CLcr <90 ml/min (76%), followed by Hb <14.0 g/dl and ITPA CC (57%). Patients with Hb ≥ 14.0 g/dl and ITPA AA/CA had the lowest incidence of anemia (17%). Patients with two predictors (high-risk) had a higher incidence of anemia than the others (64% vs. 28%, P < 0.0001). At baseline, the IL28B genotype was a predictor of a sustained virological response [adjusted odds ratio 9.88 (95% confidence interval 5.01-19.48), P < 0.0001]. In patients who achieved an early virological response, the IL28B genotype was not associated with a sustained virological response, while a high risk of anemia was a significant negative predictor of a sustained virological response [0.47 (0.24-0.91), P = 0.026]. For high-risk patients with an early virological response, giving >80% of the planned RBV dose increased sustained virological responses by 24%. In conclusion, a predictive model incorporating the ITPA genotype could identify patients with a high risk of anemia and reduced probability of sustained virological response.

Factors responsible for the discrepancy between IL28B polymorphism prediction and the viral response to peginterferon plus ribavirin therapy in Japanese chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM

  IL28B polymorphisms serve to predict response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin therapy (PEG IFN/RBV) in Japanese patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) very reliably. However, the prediction by the IL28B polymorphism contradicted the virological response to PEG IFN/RBV in some patients. Here, we aimed to investigate the factors responsible for the discrepancy between the IL28B polymorphism prediction and virological responses.

METHODS

  CHC patients with genotype 1b and high viral load were enrolled in this study. In a case-control study, clinical and virological factors were analyzed for 130 patients with rs8099917 TT genotype and 96 patients with rs8099917 TG or GG genotype who were matched according to sex, age, hemoglobin level and platelet count.

RESULTS

  Higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, lower γ-glutamyltransferase and the percentage of wild-type phenotype at amino acids 70 and 91 were significantly associated with the rs8099917 TT genotype. Multivariate analysis showed that rs8099917 TG or GG genotype, older age and lower LDL cholesterol were independently associated with the non-virological responder (NVR) phenotype. In patients with rs8099917 TT genotype (predicted as virological responder [VR]), multivariate analysis showed that older age was independently associated with NVR. In patients with rs8099917 TG or GG genotype (predicted as NVR), multivariate analysis showed that younger age was independently associated with VR.

CONCLUSION

  Patient age gave rise to the discrepancy between the prediction by IL28B polymorphism and the virological responses, suggesting that patients should be treated at a younger age.

Prediction of response to pegylated interferon/ribavirin combination therapy for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1b and high viral load

BACKGROUND

This study explores pretreatment predictive factors for ultimate virological responses to pegylated interferon-α (1.5 μg/kg/week) and ribavirin (600-1000 mg/day) (PEG-IFN/RBV) combination therapy for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-1b and a high viral load.

METHODS

A total of 75 patients underwent PEG-IFN/RBV combination therapy for 48 weeks. HCV amino acid (aa) substitutions in non-structural protein 5a, including those in the IFN/RBV resistance-determining region (IRRDR) and the IFN sensitivity-determining region and the core regions, as well as the genetic variation (rs8099917) near the interleukin 28B (IL28B) gene (genotype TT) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the 75 patients, 49 % (37/75) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR), 27 % (20/75) showed relapse, and 24 % (18/75) showed null virological response (NVR). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified IRRDR with 6 or more mutations (IRRDR ≥6) [odds ratio (OR) 11.906, p < 0.0001] and age <60 years (OR 0.228, p = 0.015) as significant determiners of SVR and IL28B minor (OR 14.618, p = 0.0019) and platelets <15 × 10(4)/mm(3) (OR 0.113, p = 0.0096) as significant determiners of NVR. A combination of IRRDR ≥6 and age <60 years improved SVR predictability (93.3 %), and that of IRRDR ≤5 and age ≥60 years improved non-SVR predictability (84.0 %). Similarly, a combination of IL28B minor and platelets <15 × 10(4)/mm(3) improved NVR predictability (85.7 %), and that of IL28B major and platelets ≥15 × 10(4)/mm(3) improved non-NVR (response) (97.1 %) predictability.

CONCLUSION

IRRDR ≥6 and age <60 years were significantly associated with SVR. IL28B minor and platelets <15 × 10(4)/mm(3) were significantly associated with NVR. Certain combinations of these factors improved SVR and NVR predictability and could, therefore, be used to design therapeutic strategies.

Fish to meat intake ratio and cooking oils are associated with hepatitis C virus carriers with persistently normal alanine aminotransferase levels

AIM

  Dietary habits are involved in the development of chronic inflammation; however, the impact of dietary profiles of hepatitis C virus carriers with persistently normal alanine transaminase levels (HCV-PNALT) remains unclear. The decision-tree algorithm is a data-mining statistical technique, which uncovers meaningful profiles of factors from a data collection. We aimed to investigate dietary profiles associated with HCV-PNALT using a decision-tree algorithm.

METHODS

  Twenty-seven HCV-PNALT and 41 patients with chronic hepatitis C were enrolled in this study. Dietary habit was assessed using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. A decision-tree algorithm was created by dietary variables, and was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUROC).

RESULTS

  In multivariate analysis, fish to meat ratio, dairy product and cooking oils were identified as independent variables associated with HCV-PNALT. The decision-tree algorithm was created with two variables: a fish to meat ratio and cooking oils/ideal bodyweight. When subjects showed a fish to meat ratio of 1.24 or more, 68.8% of the subjects were HCV-PNALT. On the other hand, 11.5% of the subjects were HCV-PNALT when subjects showed a fish to meat ratio of less than 1.24 and cooking oil/ideal bodyweight of less than 0.23 g/kg. The difference in the proportion of HCV-PNALT between these groups are significant (odds ratio 16.87, 95% CI 3.40-83.67, P = 0.0005). Fivefold cross-validation of the decision-tree algorithm showed an AUROC of 0.6947 (95% CI 0.5656-0.8238, P = 0.0067).

CONCLUSION

  The decision-tree algorithm disclosed that fish to meat ratio and cooking oil/ideal bodyweight were associated with HCV-PNALT.

Data mining model using simple and readily available factors could identify patients at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Assessment of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is essential for formulating personalized surveillance or antiviral treatment plan for chronic hepatitis C. We aimed to build a simple model for the identification of patients at high risk of developing HCC.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C patients followed for at least 5 years (n=1003) were analyzed by data mining to build a predictive model for HCC development. The model was externally validated using a cohort of 1072 patients (472 with sustained virological response (SVR) and 600 with nonSVR to PEG-interferon plus ribavirin therapy).

RESULTS

On the basis of factors such as age, platelet, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase, the HCC risk prediction model identified subgroups with high-, intermediate-, and low-risk of HCC with a 5-year HCC development rate of 20.9%, 6.3-7.3%, and 0-1.5%, respectively. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed through external validation (r(2)=0.981). The 10-year HCC development rate was also significantly higher in the high-and intermediate-risk group than in the low-risk group (24.5% vs. 4.8%; p<0.0001). In the high-and intermediate-risk group, the incidence of HCC development was significantly reduced in patients with SVR compared to those with nonSVR (5-year rate, 9.5% vs. 4.5%; p=0.040).

CONCLUSIONS

The HCC risk prediction model uses simple and readily available factors and identifies patients at a high risk of HCC development. The model allows physicians to identify patients requiring HCC surveillance and those who benefit from IFN therapy to prevent HCC.

Toward the establishment of a prediction system for the personalized treatment of chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Although several direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are now available, the therapy regimen for chronic hepatitis C will continue to include pegylated interferon and ribavirin for the foreseeable future. Despite their improved rate of sustained virological response (SVR), DAAs pose increased risks of side effects and selection for antiviral resistance. Not all patients require DAA to achieve SVR, whereas others are unlikely to respond even to triple therapy. Therefore, a personalized approach to candidate selection is necessary.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, data from 640 Japanese patients who were treated for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1, 2, or 3 with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin combination therapy was compiled to identify robust pretreatment predictive factors for SVR.

RESULTS

A logistic regression model for personalized therapy was developed based on age, viral genotype, initial viral load, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, α-fetoprotein levels, and IL28B single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.85. The mean AUC following 10 rounds of 10-fold cross validation was 0.82, with a true positive rate of 78.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

A personalized approach to therapy may better inform treatment decisions and reduce incidence of side effects and antiviral resistance.

Algorithm to determine the outcome of patients with acute liver failure: a data-mining analysis using decision trees

BACKGROUND

We established algorithms to predict the prognosis of acute liver failure (ALF) patients through a data-mining analysis, in order to improve the indication criteria for liver transplantation.

METHODS

The subjects were 1,022 ALF patients seen between 1998 and 2007 and enrolled in a nationwide survey. Patients older than 65 years, and those who had undergone liver transplantation and received blood products before the onset of hepatic encephalopathy were excluded. Two data sets were used: patients seen between 1998 and 2003 (n=698), whose data were used for the formation of the algorithm, and those seen between 2004 and 2007 (n=324), whose data were used for the validation of the algorithm. Data on a total of 73 items, at the onset of encephalopathy and 5 days later, were collected from 371 of the 698 patients seen between 1998 and 2003, and their outcome was analyzed to establish decision trees. The obtained algorithm was validated using the data of 160 of the 324 patients seen between 2004 and 2007.

RESULTS

The outcome of the patients at the onset of encephalopathy was predicted through 5 items, and the patients were classified into 6 categories with mortality rates between 23% and89%. When the prognosis of the patients in the categories with mortality rates greater than 50% was predicted as "death", the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the algorithm were 79, 78, 81, 83, and 75%, respectively. Similar high values were obtained when the algorithm was employed in the patients for validation. The outcome of the patients 5 days after the onset of encephalopathy was predicted through 7 items, and a similar high accuracy was found for both sets of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel algorithms for predicting the outcome of ALF patients may be useful to determine the indication for liver transplantation.

Sequences in the interferon sensitivity-determining region and core region of hepatitis C virus impact pretreatment prediction of response to PEG-interferon plus ribavirin: data mining analysis

The aim of the present study was to clarify the significance of viral factors for pretreatment prediction of sustained virological response to pegylated-interferon (PEG-IFN) plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy for chronic hepatitis C using data mining analysis. Substitutions in the IFN sensitivity-determining region (ISDR) and at position 70 of the HCV core region (Core70) were determined in 505 patients with genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C treated with PEG-IFN plus RBV. Data mining analysis was used to build a predictive model of sustained virological response in patients selected randomly (n = 304). The reproducibility of the model was validated in the remaining 201 patients. Substitutions in ISDR (odds ratio = 9.92, P < 0.0001) and Core70 (odds ratio = 1.92, P = 0.01) predicted sustained virological response independent of other covariates. The decision-tree model revealed that the rate of sustained virological response was highest (83%) in patients with two or more substitutions in ISDR. The overall rate of sustained virological response was 44% in patients with a low number of substitutions in ISDR (0-1) but was 83% in selected subgroups of younger patients (<60 years), wild-type sequence at Core70, and higher level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (≥ 120 mg/dl). Reproducibility of the model was validated (r(2) = 0.94, P < 0.001). In conclusion, substitutions in ISDR and Core70 of HCV are significant predictors of response to PEG-IFN plus RBV therapy. A decision-tree model that includes these viral factors as predictors could identify patients with a high probability of sustained virological response.

Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy.

METHODS

Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (n = 691) or an internal validation group (n = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis.

RESULTS

Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (r² = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥ 80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥ 2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4-2.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.