Estimating Uncertainty in Ecosystem Budget Calculations

Impacts of urbanization at city cluster scale on ecosystem services along an urban-rural gradient: a case study of Central Yunnan City Cluster, China

Urban agglomeration will be the main mode of future urbanization in China, greatly influencing social and economic development and ecosystem protection at the whole city cluster scale. It is important to analyze the impacts of large-scale, scattered land use and cover change (LUCC) consisting of one-pole-multi-point urbanization in city clusters on regional ecosystem services (ESs), so as to increase ecological security and maintain ES levels. Using the urban-rural gradient analysis method (UGAM), this study examined driver-response mechanisms of large-scale, scattered agglomeration urbanization on ESs along an urban-rural gradient and at a regional scale. This was done by simulating and analyzing tempo-spatial variations in ES characteristics along concentric ring gradients in the Central Yunnan City Cluster (CYCC) under its present urbanization path. The results showed that rapid urban sprawl is the main driver affecting the integral value of ESs in CYCC and that ES trade-offs (through LUCC caused by urbanization) between adjacent zones along the urban-rural gradient will particularly exacerbate the degradation of integral ES levels. Hence, CYCC should follow a sustainable, eco-friendly urbanization path and consider ecological principles and the impact of LUCC on regional ESs along the urban-rural gradient in top-level design and decision-making on urban planning and strategic land use management. Differentiated regional development policies should be formulated for each area, the urban-rural development pattern and layout optimized, the scale of construction land rationally controlled, and the overall efficiency of land use improved. Ecological buffers should be set up around areas with sharp and obvious changes in land use, to alleviate the negative impact of large-scale, decentralized city cluster urbanization on regional ESs.

Methods for robust estimates of tree biomass from pollen accumulation rates: Quantifying paleoecological reconstruction uncertainty

Pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm–2 year–1) have been shown to be a reliable but methodologically complex bioproxy for quantitative reconstruction of past tree abundance. In a prior study, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga, Pinus, Notholithocarpus, and the pollen group TC (Taxaceae and Cupressaceae families) – were robust and precise estimators of contemporary tree biomass. This paper expands our earlier work. Here, we more fully evaluate the errors associated with biomass reconstructions to identify weaknesses and recommend improvements in PAR-based reconstructions of forest biomass. We account for uncertainty in our biomass proxy in a formal, coherent fashion. The greatest error was introduced by the age models, underscoring the need for improved statistical approaches to age-depth modeling. Documenting the uncertainty in pollen vegetation models should be standard practice in paleoecology. We also share insights gained from the delineation of the relevant source area of pollen, advances in Bayesian 210Pb modeling, the importance of site selection, and the use of independent data to corroborate biomass estimates. Lastly, we demonstrate our workflow with a new dataset of reconstructed tree biomass between 1850 and 2018 AD from lakes in the Klamath Mountains, California. Our biomass records followed a broad trend of low mean biomass in the ∼1850s followed by large contemporary increases, consistent with expectations of forest densification due to twentieth century fire suppression policies in the American West. More recent reconstructed tree biomass estimates also corresponded with silviculture treatments occurring within the relevant source area of pollen of our lake sites.

A palaeothermometer of ancient Indigenous fisheries reveals increases in mean temperature of the catch over five millennia

Climate change is altering the distribution and composition of marine fish populations globally, which presents substantial risks to the social and economic well-being of humanity. While deriving long-term climatic baselines is an essential step for detecting and attributing the magnitude of climate change and its impacts, these baselines tend to be limited to historical datasets and palaeoecological sediment records. Here, we develop a method for estimating the 'ancient Mean Temperature of the Catch' (aMTC) using Indigenous fisheries catch records from two archaeological sites in the northeast Pacific. Despite different catch compositions, we observe an increase in aMTC over a 5,000-year period at two contemporaneously occupied archaeological sites in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We document cooler catches from 5,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP and comparatively warmer catches from 1,800 to 250 cal yr BP. These warmer temperatures are broadly consistent with palaeoceanographic sea surface temperature proxies from British Columbia and Alaska. Because this method requires converting measures of fish bones into estimates of fish size structure, abundance, biomass, and finally aMTC, opportunities exist to account for both variation and uncertainty at every step. Nevertheless, given that preindustrial fisheries data are ubiquitous in coastal archaeological sites, this method has the potential to be applied globally to broaden the temporal and geographic scale of ocean temperature baselines.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10641-022-01243-7.

Merits and Limitations of Element Balances as a Forest Planning Tool for Harvest Intensities and Sustainable Nutrient Management—A Case Study from Germany

Climate change and rising energy costs have led to increasing interest in the use of tree harvest residues as feedstock for bioenergy in recent years. With an increasing use of wood biomass and harvest residues, essential nutrient elements are removed from the forest ecosystems. Hence, nutrient sustainable management is mandatory for planning of intensive forest use. We used soil nutrient balances to identify regions in Germany where the output of base cations by leaching and biomass utilization was not balanced by the input via weathering and atmospheric deposition. The effects of conventional stem harvesting, stem harvesting without bark, and whole-tree harvesting on Ca, Mg and K balances were studied. The nutrient balances were calculated using regular forest monitoring data supplemented by additional data from scientific projects. Effective mitigation management strategies and options are discussed and calculations for the compensation of the potential depletion of nutrients in the soil are presented.

Aboveground Wood Production Is Sustained in the First Growing Season after Phloem-Disrupting Disturbance

Carbon (C) cycling processes are particularly dynamic following disturbance, with initial responses often indicative of longer-term change. In northern Michigan, USA, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) to identify the processes that sustain or lead to the decline of C cycling rates across multiple levels (0, 45, 65 and 85% targeted gross leaf area index loss) of disturbance severity and, in response, to separate disturbance types preferentially targeting large or small diameter trees. Simulating the effects of boring insects, we stem girdled > 3600 trees below diameter at breast height (DBH), immediately and permanently disrupting the phloem. Weekly DBH measurements of girdled and otherwise healthy trees (n > 700) revealed small but significant increases in daily aboveground wood net primary production (ANPPw) in the 65 and 85% disturbance severity treatments that emerged six weeks after girdling. However, we observed minimal change in end-of-season leaf area index and no significant differences in annual ANPPw among disturbance severities or between disturbance types, suggesting continued C fixation by girdled trees sustained stand-scale wood production in the first growing season after disturbance. We hypothesized higher disturbance severities would favor the growth of early successional species but observed no significant difference between early and middle to late successional species’ contributions to ANPPw across the disturbance severity gradient. We conclude that ANPPw stability immediately following phloem disruption is dependent on the continued, but inevitably temporary, growth of phloem-disrupted trees. Our findings provide insight into the tree-to-ecosystem mechanisms supporting stand-scale wood production stability in the first growing season following a phloem-disrupting disturbance.

High rates of primary production in structurally complex forests

Structure-function relationships are central to many ecological paradigms. Chief among these is the linkage of net primary production (NPP) with species diversity and canopy structure. Using the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) as a subcontinental-scale research platform, we examined how temperate-forest NPP relates to several measures of site-level canopy structure and tree species diversity. Novel multidimensional canopy traits describing structural complexity, most notably canopy rugosity, were more strongly related to site NPP than were species diversity measures and other commonly characterized canopy structural features. The amount of variation in site-level NPP explained by canopy rugosity alone was 83%, which was substantially greater than that explained individually by vegetation area index (31%) or Shannon's index of species diversity (30%). Forests that were more structurally complex, had higher vegetation-area indices, or were more diverse absorbed more light and used light more efficiently to power biomass production, but these relationships were most strongly tied to structural complexity. Implications for ecosystem modeling and management are wide ranging, suggesting structural complexity traits are broad, mechanistically robust indicators of NPP that, in application, could improve the prediction and management of temperate forest carbon sequestration.

Elevated atmospheric humidity shapes the carbon cycle of a silver birch forest ecosystem: A FAHM study

Processes determining the carbon (C) balance of a forest ecosystem are influenced by a number of climatic and environmental factors. In Northern Europe, a rise in atmospheric humidity and precipitation is predicted. The study aims to ascertain the effect of elevated atmospheric humidity on the components of the C budget and on the C-sequestration capacity of a young birch forest. Biomass production, soil respiration, and other C fluxes were measured in young silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands growing on the Free Air Humidity Manipulation (FAHM) experimental site, located in South-East Estonia. The C input fluxes: C sequestration in trees and understory, litter input into soil, and methane oxidation, as well as C output fluxes: soil heterotrophic respiration and C leaching were estimated. Humidified birch stands stored C from the atmosphere, but control stands can be considered as C neutral. Two years of elevated air humidity increased C sequestration in the understory but decreased it in trees. Humidification treatment increased remarkably the C input to the soil. The main reason for such an increase was the higher root litter input into the soil, brought about by the more than two-fold increase of belowground biomass production of the understory in the humidification treatment. Elevated atmospheric humidity increased C sequestration in young silver birch stands, mitigating increasing CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. However, the effect of elevated atmospheric humidity is expected to decrease over time, as plants and soil organisms acclimate, and new communities emerge.

Measurement Uncertainty Calculations for pH Value Obtained by an Ion-Selective Electrode

An assessment of measurement uncertainty is a task, which has to be the final step of every chemical assay. Apart from a commonly applied typical assessment method, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations may be used. The simulations are frequently performed by a computer program, which has to be written, and therefore some programming skills are required. It is also possible to use a commonly known spreadsheet and perform such simulations without writing any code. Commercial programs dedicated for the purpose are also available. In order to show the advantages and disadvantages of the ways of uncertainty evaluation, i.e., the typical method, the MC method implemented in a program and in a spreadsheet, and commercial programs, a case of pH measurement after two-point calibration is considered in this article. The ways differ in the required mathematical transformations, degrees of software usage, the time spent for the uncertainty calculations, and cost of software. Since analysts may have different mathematical and coding skills and practice, it is impossible to point out the best way of uncertainty assessment—all of them are just as good and give comparable assessments.

Weighing trees with lasers: advances, challenges and opportunities

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is providing exciting new ways to quantify tree and forest structure, particularly above-ground biomass (AGB). We show how TLS can address some of the key uncertainties and limitations of current approaches to estimating AGB based on empirical allometric scaling equations (ASEs) that underpin all large-scale estimates of AGB. TLS provides extremely detailed non-destructive measurements of tree form independent of tree size and shape. We show examples of three-dimensional (3D) TLS measurements from various tropical and temperate forests and describe how the resulting TLS point clouds can be used to produce quantitative 3D models of branch and trunk size, shape and distribution. These models can drastically improve estimates of AGB, provide new, improved large-scale ASEs, and deliver insights into a range of fundamental tree properties related to structure. Large quantities of detailed measurements of individual 3D tree structure also have the potential to open new and exciting avenues of research in areas where difficulties of measurement have until now prevented statistical approaches to detecting and understanding underlying patterns of scaling, form and function. We discuss these opportunities and some of the challenges that remain to be overcome to enable wider adoption of TLS methods.

The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We compile datasets of mangrove biomass C (197 observations from 48 sites) and soil organic C (99 observations from 27 sites) to parameterize the predictive models, and use linear mixed effect models to model the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, which are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets and indicate significant heterogeneity across-sites within the region. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm³ (14.1% of mean soil C). The results point to a need for standardization of forest metrics to facilitate meta-analyses, as well as provide important considerations for refining ecosystem C stock models in mangroves.

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km² of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha⁻¹, which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec’s managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041–2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec’s forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

Integrating forest inventory and analysis data into a LIDAR-based carbon monitoring system

BACKGROUND

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data may be a valuable component of a LIDAR-based carbon monitoring system, but integration of the two observation systems is not without challenges. To explore integration methods, two wall-to-wall LIDAR-derived biomass maps were compared to FIA data at both the plot and county levels in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties in Maryland. Allometric model-related errors were also considered.

RESULTS

In areas of medium to dense biomass, the FIA data were valuable for evaluating map accuracy by comparing plot biomass to pixel values. However, at plots that were defined as "nonforest", FIA plots had limited value because tree data was not collected even though trees may be present. When the FIA data were combined with a previous inventory that included sampling of nonforest plots, 21 to 27% of the total biomass of all trees was accounted for in nonforest conditions, resulting in a more accurate benchmark for comparing to total biomass derived from the LIDAR maps. Allometric model error was relatively small, but there was as much as 31% difference in mean biomass based on local diameter-based equations compared to regional volume-based equations, suggesting that the choice of allometric model is important.

CONCLUSIONS

To be successfully integrated with LIDAR, FIA sampling would need to be enhanced to include measurements of all trees in a landscape, not just those on land defined as "forest". Improved GPS accuracy of plot locations, intensifying data collection in small areas with few FIA plots, and other enhancements are also recommended.

From missing source to missing sink: long-term changes in the nitrogen budget of a northern hardwood forest

Biogeochemical monitoring for 45 years at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire has revealed multiple surprises, seeming contradictions, and unresolved questions in the long-term record of ecosystem nitrogen dynamics. From 1965 to 1977, more N was accumulating in living biomass than was deposited from the atmosphere; the "missing" N source was attributed to biological fixation. Since 1992, biomass accumulation has been negligible or even negative, and streamwater export of dissolved inorganic N has decreased from ~4 to ~1 kg of N ha(-1) year(-1), despite chronically elevated atmospheric N deposition (~7 kg of N ha(-1) year(-1)) and predictions of N saturation. Here we show that the ecosystem has shifted to a net N sink, either storing or denitrifying ~8 kg of N ha(-1) year(-1). Repeated sampling over 25 years shows that the forest floor is not detectably accumulating N, but the C:N ratio is increasing. Mineral soil N has decreased nonsignificantly in recent decades, but the variability of these measurements prevents detection of a change of <700 kg of N ha(-1). Whether the excess N is accumulating in the ecosystem or lost through denitrification will be difficult to determine, but the distinction has important implications for the local ecosystem and global climate.

Topographic and soil influences on root productivity of three bioenergy cropping systems

Successful modeling of the carbon (C) cycle requires empirical data regarding species-specific root responses to edaphic characteristics. We address this need by quantifying annual root production of three bioenergy systems (continuous corn, triticale/sorghum, switchgrass) in response to variation in soil properties across a toposequence within a Midwestern agroecosystem. Using ingrowth cores to measure annual root production, we tested for the effects of topography and 11 soil characteristics on root productivity. Root production significantly differed among cropping systems. Switchgrass root productivity was lowest on the floodplain position, but root productivity of annual crops was not influenced by topography or soil properties. Greater switchgrass root production was associated with high percent sand, which explained 45% of the variation. Percent sand was correlated negatively with soil C and nitrogen and positively with bulk density, indicating this variable is a proxy for multiple important soil properties. Our results suggest that easily measured soil parameters can be used to improve model predictions of root productivity in bioenergy switchgrass, but the edaphic factors we measured were not useful for predicting root productivity in annual crops. These results can improve C cycling modeling efforts by revealing the influence of cropping system and soil properties on root productivity.

Decreased water flowing from a forest amended with calcium silicate

Acid deposition during the 20th century caused widespread depletion of available soil calcium (Ca) throughout much of the industrialized world. To better understand how forest ecosystems respond to changes in a component of acidification stress, an 11.8-ha watershed was amended with wollastonite, a calcium silicate mineral, to restore available soil Ca to preindustrial levels through natural weathering. An unexpected outcome of the Ca amendment was a change in watershed hydrology; annual evapotranspiration increased by 25%, 18%, and 19%, respectively, for the 3 y following treatment before returning to pretreatment levels. During this period, the watershed retained Ca from the wollastonite, indicating a watershed-scale fertilization effect on transpiration. That response is unique in being a measured manipulation of watershed runoff attributable to fertilization, a response of similar magnitude to effects of deforestation. Our results suggest that past and future changes in available soil Ca concentrations have important and previously unrecognized implications for the water cycle.

Patterns of growth, recruitment, mortality and biomass across an altitudinal gradient in a neotropical montane forest, Dominican Republic

We examined stand dynamics and biomass along an altitudinal gradient in a tropical montane forest (TMF) in the disturbance-prone Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic. We tested the general hypothesis that chronic disturbance by fire, wind, floods and landslides results in a landscape of relatively low above-ground biomass with high rates of mortality, recruitment and growth as compared with other TMFs. We also expected above-ground biomass to decrease with altitude in part due to declines in growth and increased biomass losses from mortality with increasing altitude. We resurveyed 75 0.1-ha plots distributed across the altitudinal gradient (1100–3100 m asl) 8 y after they were established. Our observations provided mixed evidence on these hypotheses. Turnover rates were high (> 2% y−1) and significantly greater on windward slopes. Above-ground biomass (mean = 306 Mg ha−1, 95% CI = 193–456 Mg ha−1) was highly variable but comparable to other TMFs. Altitudinal patterns of declining biomass and above-ground growth matched observations for other TMFs, whereas mortality and recruitment exhibited no altitudinal trends. More quantitative studies in a variety of TMF settings are needed to better understand how natural disturbance, complex environmental gradients and species dynamics interact to regulate carbon storage, sequestration and turnover across altitudinal gradients in TMFs.