The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed

Identify the seasonal differences in water quality and pollution sources between river-connected and gate-controlled lakes in the Yangtze River basin

The river-connected Dongting Lake (DT) and Poyang Lake (PY), and the gate-controlled Taihu Lake (TH) and Chaohu Lake (CH) are the four important lakes in the Yangtze River Basin. The comprehensive Water Quality Index (WQI), the Eutrophication Integrated Index (TLI(Σ)), and the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model were employed to evaluate water quality and the contribution of pollution sources for these lakes. The results show that WQI for all lakes indicated generally good water quality, with DT scoring 73.52-86.18, the highest among them. During the wet season, the eutrophication degree of river-connected lake was medium, and that of gate-controlled lakes was high. The surface runoff and agricultural non-point sources are the main pollution sources for both types of lakes, but their impact is more pronounced in gate-controlled lakes during the wet season. The study provides evidence support for scientific understanding of water quality problems and management strategies in these areas.

Soil legacy phosphorus and loss risk in subtropical grasslands

The accumulation of soil legacy phosphorus (P) due to past fertilization practices poses a persistent challenge for agroecosystem management and water quality conservation. This study investigates the spatial distribution and risk assessment of soil legacy P in subtropical grasslands managed for cow-calf operations in Florida, with two pasture types along the intensity gradient: improved vs semi-native pastures. Soil samples from 1438 locations revealed substantial spatial variation in soil legacy P, with total P concentrations ranging from 11.46 to 619.54 mg/kg and Mehlich-1 P concentrations spanning 0.2-187.27 mg/kg. Our analyses revealed that most of the sites in semi-native pastures may function as P sinks by exhibiting positive Soil P Storage Capacity (SPSC) values, despite having high levels of soil total P. These locales of higher SPSC values were associated with high levels of aluminum, iron, and organic matter that can adsorb P. In addition, our results from spatial random forest modelling demonstrated that factors including elevation, soil organic matter, available water storage, pasture type, soil pH, and soil order are important to explain and predict spatial variations in SPSC. Incorporating SPSC into the Phosphorus Index (PI) spatial assessment, we further determined that only 3% of the study area was considered as high or very high PI categories indicative of a significant risk for P loss. Our evaluation of SPSC and PI underscores the complexity inherent in P dynamics, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach to assessing P loss risk. Insights from this work not only help optimize agronomic practices but also promote sustainable land management, thus ensuring the long-term health and sustainability of grass-dominated agroecosystems.

A graph-based modeling framework for tracing hydrological pollutant transport in surface waters

Anthropogenic pollution of hydrological systems affects diverse communities and ecosystems around the world. Data analytics and modeling tools play a key role in fighting this challenge, as they can help identify key sources as well as trace transport and quantify impact within complex hydrological systems. Several tools exist for simulating and tracing pollutant transport throughout surface waters using detailed physical models; these tools are powerful, but can be computationally intensive, require significant amounts of data to be developed, and require expert knowledge for their use (ultimately limiting application scope). In this work, we present a graph modeling framework - which we call HydroGraphs - for understanding pollutant transport and fate across waterbodies, rivers, and watersheds. This framework uses a simplified representation of hydrological systems that can be constructed based purely on open-source data (National Hydrography Dataset and Watershed Boundary Dataset). The graph representation provides a flexible intuitive approach for capturing connectivity and for identifying upstream pollutant sources and for tracing downstream impacts within small and large hydrological systems. Moreover, the graph representation can facilitate the use of advanced algorithms and tools of graph theory, topology, optimization, and machine learning to aid data analytics and decision-making. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework by using case studies in the State of Wisconsin; here, we aim to identify upstream nutrient pollutant sources that arise from agricultural practices and trace downstream impacts to waterbodies, rivers, and streams. Our tool ultimately seeks to help stakeholders design effective pollution prevention/mitigation practices and evaluate how surface waters respond to such practices.

Legacy phosphorus delays the accomplishment of expected phosphorus management object

Legacy phosphorus (P) in watersheds continuously affects the water quality. The time lag between anthropogenic P input and algal bloom has made P dynamics prediction in aquatic ecosystems more challenging. Whether the legacy P in the Yangtze River Watershed (YRW) exceeds its storage threshold remains unknown, and the continuous impact of legacy P on the water quality has not been analyzed. This study aimed to evaluate variation trends (1970-2018) and influencing factors for accumulated P in the YRW under different economic development periods, quantitatively identify the watershed P storage threshold based on the two split line models and estimate the time required for the return of legacy P to the baseline level using an exponential decay process. The results showed that the P storage threshold of the YRW was surpassed due to intense anthropogenic activities, and the residual P still had an impact on aquatic ecosystems for a long time. The dissolved total P loadings may become the top priority to achieve better P management goals. The time lags for the legacy P restoration would require for about 1000 years to be exhausted. The legacy P in the YRW would continuously undermine the restoration efforts of the water quality. The combined effects of watershed P surplus reductions and depletion of residual P may become essential to better manage P in the future. We still need to strengthen our efforts to make soil legacy P more absorbed by crops and improve sewage treatment capacity to achieve sustainable development of YRW.

US climate policy yields water quality cobenefits in the Mississippi Basin and Gulf of Mexico

We utilize a coupled economy-agroecology-hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government's social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO2-equivalents) to fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits.

Magnesium activation affects the properties and phosphate sorption capacity of poultry litter biochar

Biochars with a high affinity for phosphorus (P) are promising soil amendments for reducing P in agricultural run-off. Poultry litter (PL) is an abundant biochar feedstock. However, PL-derived biochars are typically high in soluble P and therefore require chemical modification to become effective P sorbents. This study investigated the effect of magnesium (Mg) activation on extractable P (EP) and P sorption capacities of PL-derived biochars. Biochar was produced at 500-900 °C from PL activated with 0-1 M Mg. Three differentially aged PL feedstocks were evaluated (1-, 3-5-, and 7-9-year-old). Increased Mg activation level and pyrolysis temperature both resulted in EP reductions from the biochars. Specifically, biochars produced at temperatures ≥ 700 °C from PL activated with ≥ 0.25 M Mg had negligible EP. X-ray diffractograms indicated that increased Mg loading favored the formation of stable Mg3(PO4)2 phases while increasing temperature favored the formation of both Mg3(PO4)2 and Ca5(PO4)3OH. Maximum P sorption capacities (Pmax) of the biochars were estimated by fitting Langmuir isotherms to batch sorption data and ranged from 0.66-10.35 mg g-1. Average Pmax values were not affected by PL age or pyrolysis temperature; however, biochars produced from 1 M Mg-activated PL did have significantly higher average Pmax values (p < 0.05), likely due to a greater abundance of MgO. Overall, the results demonstrated that Mg activation is an effective strategy for producing PL-derived biochars with the potential ability to reduce P loading into environmentally sensitive ecosystems.

Phosphorus removal by aquatic vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes: a laboratory study

Eutrophication in inland lakes is occurring frequently with the rapid urbanization, the increases in human population, and the intensive agricultural activities. Traditional management programs focusing on external nutrient reduction failed in recovery of certain aquatic environments where internal nutrient releases are substantial. In this study, we evaluated the effects of aquatic vegetation in altering the phosphorus concentrations in a shallow, eutrophic lake through laboratory flume experiments. Our measurements demonstrated that aquatic vegetation could effectively lower the phosphorus levels in the water column, and the average reduction reached 90% for submerged vegetation and 80% for emergent vegetation. The experimental results showed that the submerged vegetation was effective to reduce phosphorus concentrations in the top and mid layers of pore waters and sediments. Differently, the emergent vegetation would assimilate more phosphorus in the bottom layer due to its deep root distributions. The flowing-water environment favored phosphorus removal for emergent vegetation, while the submerged vegetation was more functional in static waters according to our observations. The flux results showed that phosphorus transports from water columns to leaves, roots to leaves, and sediments to roots were all inhibited in flowing-water environments for submerged vegetation. Oppositely, the fluxes of emergent vegetation groups were all enhanced in flowing waters. Our experiments could inform ecosystem management concerning the potentials of aquatic vegetation in nutrient removal at regional and lake-wide scales.

Perennial grassland agriculture restores critical ecosystem functions in the U.S. Upper Midwest

Dominant forms of agricultural production in the U.S. Upper Midwest are undermining human health and well being. Restoring critical ecosystem functions to agriculture is key to stabilizing climate, reducing flooding, cleaning water, and enhancing biodiversity. We used simulation models to compare ecosystem functions (food-energy production, nutrient retention, and water infiltration) provided by vegetation associated with continuous corn, corn-soybean rotation, and perennial grassland producing feed for dairy livestock. Compared to continuous corn, most ecosystem functions dramatically improved in the perennial grassland system (nitrate leaching reduced ~90%, phosphorus loss reduced ~88%, drainage increased ~25%, evapotranspiration reduced ~29%), which will translate to improved ecosystem services. Our results emphasize the need to incentivize multiple ecosystem services when managing agricultural landscapes.

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

Landscape patterns of catchment and land-use regulate legacy phosphorus releases in subtropical mixed agricultural and woodland catchments

Landscape composition and configuration determine the exchange of matter and energy among different landscape patches and may affect riverine phosphorus (P) exports derived from watershed legacy sources. However, a lack of understanding of landscape pattern effects on legacy P releases has yielded large uncertainties in mitigating watershed water quality using management practices or landscape planning. This study revealed the significance of legacy effect in the headwater catchments through the time-lag response of the long-term trend of river P exports to the change of net anthropogenic P input (NAPI). By constructing empirical statistical models that incorporated NAPI, hydroclimatic, terrain factors, soil chemical properties, and land use variables, the sources of annual riverine total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) exports were divided into current annual NAPI input and legacy sources inputs. The model estimations indicated that the contribution of legacy sources to riverine TP exports was 0.33-1.12 kg ha^-1 yr^-1 (50.7-82.8%), which was significantly higher than the contribution to DIP exports (0.18-0.49 kg ha^-1 yr^-1, 42.4-81.4%) in 2012-2017. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variance partitioning analysis (VPA) methods were used to quantify the relative contribution of landscape patterns, soil P content, and terrain factors to legacy P releases. Results revealed that the relative contribution of the landscape composition and configuration to the total variations of legacy P releases was greater than that of the soil P and terrain factors. For different land use patches, a large area of woodland with a high aggregation degree and a large area of ponds with multiple net structures may significantly alleviate legacy P releases. In contrast, the legacy P releases were significantly positively associated with highly aggregated agricultural, tea plantation, and residential patches. This study provides theoretical support for strategies aiming to control legacy P from the perspective of landscape planning.

Development of a sub-seasonal cyanobacteria prediction model by leveraging local and global scale predictors

In recent decades, cultural eutrophication of coastal waters and inland lakes around the world has contributed to a rapid expansion of potentially toxic cyanobacteria, threatening aquatic and human systems. For many locations, a complex array of physical, chemical, and biological variables leads to significant inter-annual variability of cyanobacteria biomass, modulated by local and large-scale climate phenomena. Currently, however, minimal information regarding expected summertime cyanobacteria biomass conditions is available prior to the season, limiting proactive management and preparedness strategies for lake and beach safety. To address this, sub-seasonal (two-month) cyanobacteria biomass prediction models are developed, drawing on pre-season predictors including stream discharge, phosphorus loads, a floating algae index, and large-scale sea-surface temperature regions, with an application to Lake Mendota in Wisconsin. A two-phase statistical modeling approach is adopted to reflect identified asymmetric relationships between predictors (drivers of inter-annual variability) and cyanobacteria biomass levels. The model illustrates promising performance overall, with particular skill in predicting above normal cyanobacteria biomass conditions which are of primary importance to lake and beach managers.

Performance-Based Payments for Soil Carbon Sequestration Can Enable a Low-Carbon Bioeconomy

Incentivizing bioenergy crop production in locations with marginal soils, where low-input perennial crops can provide net carbon sequestration and economic benefits, will be crucial to building a successful bioeconomy. We developed an integrated assessment framework to compare switchgrass cultivation with corn-soybean rotations on the basis of production costs, revenues, and soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at a 100 m spatial resolution. We calculated profits (or losses) when marginal lands are converted from a corn-soy rotation to switchgrass across a range of farm gate biomass prices and payments for SOC sequestration in the State of Illinois, United States. The annual net SOC sequestration and switchgrass yields are estimated to range from 0.1 to 0.4 Mg ha^-1 and 7.3 to 15.5 Mg dry matter ha^-1, respectively, across the state. Without payments for SOC sequestration, only a small fraction of marginal corn-soybean land would achieve a 20% profit margin if converted to switchgrass, but $40-80 Mg^-1 CO₂e compensation could increase the economically viable area by 140-414%. With the compensation, switchgrass cultivation for 10 years on 1.6 million ha of marginal land in Illinois will produce biomass worth $1.6-2.9 billion (0.95-1.8 million Mg dry biomass) and mitigate 5-22 million Mg CO₂e.

Roles of Nutrient Limitation on Western Lake Erie CyanoHAB Toxin Production

Cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) proliferation is a global problem impacting ecosystem and human health. Western Lake Erie (WLE) typically endures two highly toxic CyanoHABs during summer: a Microcystis spp. bloom in Maumee Bay that extends throughout the western basin, and a Planktothrix spp. bloom in Sandusky Bay. Recently, the USA and Canada agreed to a 40% phosphorus (P) load reduction to lessen the severity of the WLE blooms. To investigate phosphorus and nitrogen (N) limitation of biomass and toxin production in WLE CyanoHABs, we conducted in situ nutrient addition and 40% dilution microcosm bioassays in June and August 2019. During the June Sandusky Bay bloom, biomass production as well as hepatotoxic microcystin and neurotoxic anatoxin production were N and P co-limited with microcystin production becoming nutrient deplete under 40% dilution. During August, the Maumee Bay bloom produced microcystin under nutrient repletion with slight induced P limitation under 40% dilution, and the Sandusky Bay bloom produced anatoxin under N limitation in both dilution treatments. The results demonstrate the importance of nutrient limitation effects on microcystin and anatoxin production. To properly combat cyanotoxin and cyanobacterial biomass production in WLE, both N and P reduction efforts should be implemented in its watershed.

Granular measures of agricultural land use influence lake nitrogen and phosphorus differently at macroscales

Agricultural land use is typically associated with high stream nutrient concentrations and increased nutrient loading to lakes. For lakes, evidence for these associations mostly comes from studies on individual lakes or watersheds that relate concentrations of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) to aggregate measures of agricultural land use, such as the proportion of land used for agriculture in a lake's watershed. However, at macroscales (i.e., in hundreds to thousands of lakes across large spatial extents), there is high variability around such relationships and it is unclear whether considering more granular (or detailed) agricultural data, such as fertilizer application, planting of specific crops, or the extent of near-stream cropping, would improve prediction and inform understanding of lake nutrient drivers. Furthermore, it is unclear whether lake N and P would have different relationships to such measures and whether these relationships would vary by region, since regional variation has been observed in prior studies using aggregate measures of agriculture. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined relationships between granular measures of agricultural activity and lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in 928 lakes and their watersheds in the Northeastern and Midwest U.S. using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach. We found that both lake TN and TP concentrations were related to these measures of agriculture, especially near-stream agriculture. The relationships between measures of agriculture and lake TN concentrations were more regionally variable than those for TP. Conversely, TP concentrations were more strongly related to lake-specific measures like depth and watershed hydrology relative to TN. Our finding that lake TN and TP concentrations have different relationships with granular measures of agricultural activity has implications for the design of effective and efficient policy approaches to maintain and improve water quality.

Where Have All the Nutrients Gone? Long-Term Decoupling of Inputs and Outputs in the Willamette River Watershed, Oregon, United States

Better documentation and understanding of long-term temporal dynamics of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in watersheds is necessary to support effective water quality management, in part because studies have identified time lags between terrestrial nutrient balances and water quality. We present annual time series data from 1969 to 2012 for terrestrial N and P sources and monthly data from 1972 to 2013 for river N and P for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, United States. Inputs to the watershed increased by factors of 3 for N and 1.2 for P. Synthetic fertilizer inputs increased in total and relative importance over time, while sewage inputs decreased. For N, increased fertilizer application was not matched by a proportionate increase in crop harvest; N use efficiency decreased from 69% to 38%. P use efficiency increased from 52% to 67%. As nutrient inputs to terrestrial systems increased, river concentrations and loads of total N, total P, and dissolved inorganic P decreased, and annual nutrient loads were strongly related to discharge. The N:P ratio of both sewage and fertilizer doubled over time but there was no similar trend in riverine export; river N:P concentrations declined dramatically during storms. River nutrient export over time was related to hydrology and waste discharge, with relatively little influence of watershed balances, suggesting that accumulation within soils or groundwater over time is mediating watershed export. Simply managing yearly nutrient balances is unlikely to improve water quality; rather, many factors must be considered, including soil and groundwater storage capacity, and gaseous loss pathways.

Modeling of phosphorus loss from field to watershed: A review

Phosphorus (P) losses from nonpoint sources into surface water resources through surface runoff and tile drainage play a significant role in eutrophication. Accordingly, the number of studies involving the modeling of agricultural P losses, the uncertainties of such models, and the best management practices (BMPs) supported by the modeling of hypothetical P loss reduction scenarios has increased significantly around the world. Many improvements have been made to these models: separate manure P pools, variable source areas allowing the determination of critical source areas of P loss, analyses of modeling uncertainties, and understanding of legacy P. However, several elements are still missing or have yet to be sufficiently addressed: the incorporation of preferential flow into models, the modification of P sorption-desorption processes considering recent research data (e.g., pedotransfer functions for labile, active, or stable P, along with P sorption coefficients), BMP parameterization, and scale-up issues, as well as stakeholder-scientist and experimentalist-modeler interactions. The accuracy of P loss modeling can be improved by (a) incorporating dynamic P sorption-desorption processes and new P subroutines for direct P loss from manure, fertilizer, and dung, (b) modeling preferential flow, connectivity between field and adjacent water bodies, and P in-stream processes, (c) including an assessment of model uncertainty, (d) integrating field and watershed models for BMP calibration and scaling field results up to larger areas, and (e) building a holistic interaction between stakeholders, experimentalists, and modelers.

Mitigating the global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms: Moving targets in a human- and climatically-altered world

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are a major threat to human and environmental health. As global proliferation of CyanoHABs continues to increase in prevalence, intensity, and toxicity, it is important to identify and integrate the underlying causes and controls of blooms in order to develop effective short- and long-term mitigation strategies. Clearly, nutrient input reductions should receive high priority. Legacy effects of multi-decadal anthropogenic eutrophication have altered limnetic systems such that there has been a shift from exclusive phosphorus (P) limitation to nitrogen (N) limitation and N and P co-limitation. Additionally, climate change is driving CyanoHAB proliferation through increasing global temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, including more extreme rainfall events and protracted droughts. These scenarios have led to the "perfect storm scenario"; increases in pulsed nutrient loading events, followed by persistent low-flow, long water residence times, favoring bloom formation and proliferation. To meet the CyanoHAB mitigation challenge, we must: (1) Formulate watershed and airshed-specific N and P input reductions on a sliding scale to meet anthropogenic and climatic forcings. (2) Develop CyanoHAB management strategies that incorporate current and anticipated climatic changes and extremes. (3) Make nutrient management strategies compatible with other physical-chemical-biological mitigation approaches, such as altering freshwater flow and flushing, dredging, chemical applications, introduction of selective grazers, etc. (4) Target CyanoHAB toxin production and developing management approaches to reduce toxin production. (5) Develop broadly applicable long-term strategies that incorporate the above recommendations.

Fine-Scale Analysis of the Energy-Land-Water Nexus: Nitrate Leaching Implications of Biomass Cofiring in the Midwestern United States

As scientists seek to better understand the linkages between energy, water, and land systems, they confront a critical question of scale for their analysis. Many studies exploring this nexus restrict themselves to a small area in order to capture fine-scale processes, whereas other studies focus on interactions between energy, water, and land over broader domains but apply coarse resolution methods. Detailed studies of a narrow domain can be misleading if the policy intervention considered is broad-based and has impacts on energy, land, and agricultural markets. Regional studies with aggregate low-resolution representations may miss critical feedbacks driven by the dynamic interactions between subsystems. This study applies a novel, gridded energy-land-water modeling system to analyze the local environmental impacts of biomass cofiring of coal power plants across the upper MISO region. We use this framework to examine the impacts of a hypothetical biomass cofiring technology mandate of coal-fired power plants using corn residues. We find that this scenario has a significant impact on land allocation, fertilizer applications, and nitrogen leaching. The effects also impact regions not involved in cofiring through agricultural markets. Further, some MISO coal-fired plants would cease generation because the competition for biomass increases the cost of this feedstock and because the higher operating costs of cofiring renders them uncompetitive with other generation sources. These factors are not captured by analyses undertaken at the level of an individual power plant. We also show that a region-wide analysis of this cofiring mandate would have registered only a modest increase in nitrate leaching (just +5% across the upper MISO region). Such aggregate analyses would have obscured the extremely large increases in leaching at particular locations, as much as +60%. Many of these locations are already pollution hotspots. Fine-scale analysis, nested within a broader framework, is necessary to capture these critical environmental interactions within the energy, land, and water nexus.

Assessment of water quality of best water management practices in lake adjacent to the high-latitude agricultural areas, China

A major inland alkalinity lake in Northeast China, the Chagan Lake, was studied for the changes of its water qualities over the past three decades. Water quality data, including total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and fluoride (F^-), were analyzed to derive key indices for guiding water quality management. Our study found that the Chagan Lake had an average trophic state index (TSI) ranging 50 to 70; the average TSI for TP ranging between 70 and 80, and the average TSI for TN being 50. Over the past three decades, the TSI values generally trended lower, but there was a slight uptrend from 2012 onwards. Seasonal variations in the concentrations of TN and TP were identified. The TSI values in September were higher than those in May, while the values of un-ionized ammonia (UIA) during rainy seasons were higher than those during dry seasons. The average values of alkalinity and F^- in the lake water exceeded the upper limits set in the Chinese water quality standards, i.e., 20 mg/L and 1 mg/L, respectively. It was defined that the evolution of lake water quality proceeded in four consecutive periods, namely natural, deterioration, improvement, and risk period; the improvement period benefitted from a historical water conservation project. Our study concluded that the amount of irrigation discharge into the Chagan must be monitored, and controlled, in order to sustain the critical ecological functions currently provided by the Chagan Lake.

Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios

Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014-2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

Managing Diffuse Phosphorus at the Source versus at the Sink

Judicious phosphorus (P) management is a global grand challenge and critical to achieving and maintaining water quality objectives while maintaining food production. The management of point sources has been successful in lowering P inputs to aquatic environments, but more difficult is reducing P discharges associated with diffuse sources, such as nonpoint runoff from agriculture and urban landscapes, as well as P accumulated in soils and sediments. Strategies for effective diffuse-P management are imperative. Many options are currently available, and the most cost-effective and practical choice depends on the local situation. This critical review describes how the metrics of P quantity in kg ha^-1 yr^-1 and P form can influence decision-making and implementation of diffuse-P management strategies. Quantifying the total available pool of P, and its form, in a system is necessary to inform effective decision-making. The review draws upon a number of " current practice" case studies that span agriculture, cities, and aquatic sectors. These diverse examples from around the world highlight different diffuse-P management approaches, delivered at the source in the catchment watershed or at the aquatic sink. They underscore workable options for achieving water quality improvement and wider P sustainability. The diffuse-P management options discussed in this critical review are transferable to other jurisdictions at the global scale. We demonstrate that P quantity is typically highest and most concentrated at the source, particularly at farm scale. The most cost-effective and practically implementable diffuse-P management options are, therefore, to reduce P use, conserve P, and mitigate P loss at the source. Sequestering and removing P from aquatic sinks involves increasing cost, but is sometimes the most effective choice. Recovery of diffuse-P, while expensive, offers opportunity for the circular economy.

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to surface runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season daily surface runoff data from clay loam experimental plots subject to different manure/fertilizer applications. Model performance was evaluated on the basis of the coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of observed values (RSR). The model offered an acceptable performance in simulating soil labile P dynamics (R² = 0.75, NSE = 0.55, PBIAS = 10.43%, and RSR = 0.67) and dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss in surface runoff (R² ≥ 0.74 and NSE ≥ 0.69) for both solid and liquid cattle manure, as well as inorganic fertilizer. Simulated direct P loss in surface runoff from solid and liquid cattle manure accounted for 39% and 40% of total growing season DRP losses in surface runoff. To compensate for the unavailability of daily surface runoff observations under snow melt condition, the whole four years' (2008-2011) daily surface runoff predicted by EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used as SurPhos input. The accuracy of simulated DRP loss in surface runoff under the different manure/fertilizer treatments was acceptable (R² ≥ 0.55 and NSE ≥ 0.50). For the solid cattle manure treatment, of all annual DRP losses, 19% were derived directly from the manure. Beyond offering a reliable prediction of manure/fertilizer P loss in surface runoff, SurPhos quantified different sources of DRP loss and dynamic labile P in soil, allowing a better critical assessment of different P management measures' effectiveness in mitigating DRP losses.

Estimating Legacy Soil Phosphorus Impacts on Phosphorus Loss in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Agricultural nutrient management is an issue due to P loss from fields and water quality degradation. This is especially true in watersheds where a history of P application in excess of crop needs has resulted in elevated soil P (legacy P). As practices and policy are implemented in such watersheds to reduce P loss, information is needed on time required to draw down soil P and how much P loss can be reduced by drawdown. We used the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model to simulate soil P drawdown in Maryland, and to estimate P loss at a statewide scale associated with different combinations of soil P and P transport. Simulated APLE soil P drawdown compared well with measured rates from three field sites, showing that APLE can reliably simulate P dynamics for Maryland soils. Statewide APLE simulations of average annual P loss from cropland (0.84 kg ha) also compared well with estimates from the Chesapeake Bay Model (0.87 kg ha). The APLE results suggest that it is realistic to expect that a concerted effort to reduce high P soils throughout the state can reduce P loss to the Chesapeake Bay by 40%. However, P loss reduction would be achieved gradually over several decades, since soil P drawdown is very slow. Combining soil P drawdown with aggressive conservation efforts to reduce P transport in erosion could achieve a 62% reduction in state-level P loss. This 62% reduction could be considered a maximum amount possible that is still compatible with modern agriculture.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km² Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes.