Future unrelated medical costs need to be considered in cost effectiveness analysis

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown.

METHODS

The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

The economic costs of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol is a harmful, toxic and addictive substance that causes many diseases and injuries. Alcohol use also incurs a financial cost to the health care system and wider economy. This project aimed to undertake a cost impact analysis of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales (NSW). The alcohol-related harms costing model is an interactive tool designed for use by local health districts, stakeholders such as Liquor and Gaming NSW, NSW Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority and community stakeholders.

METHODS

Costs included in the analysis were alcohol-related hospitalisations, deaths, crimes, emergency department attendances, outpatient presentations and their impacts on productivity. Two local government areas (LGA) were used as case studies to demonstrate local impacts.

RESULTS

In 2019-2020, the total cost of alcohol-related harms for NSW was estimated at $9 billion, at a rate of $120.3 million per 100,000 population. The total costs were comprised of alcohol-attributable premature mortality ($8.3 billion), non-fatal health care costs ($275 million) and crime costs ($457 million). A comparative analysis of two case study LGAs estimated that alcohol-related harms cost $195 million for the Northern Beaches LGA and $351 million for the Central Coast LGA.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This research has developed a 'proof-of-concept' model to estimate the cost of alcohol-related harms at the local level in Australia, empowering health agencies and local community stakeholders to use economic evidence in their submissions in response to new liquor licence applications and other policies that impact their local community. This economic evidence can be used to improve the quality of decisions on alcohol regulation and policies. There are a number of future research opportunities that would enhance the economic evidence available to liquor licensing decision-makers.

Context-Specific Estimation of Future Unrelated Medical Costs and Their Impact on Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

OBJECTIVES

This study constructed and applied procedures for the estimation of unrelated future medical costs (UFMC) of women with breast cancer in Israel (as a case study) and examined the influence of including UFMC in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs).

METHODS

Part I consisted of a retrospective cohort study based on patient-level claims data of both patients with breast cancer and matched controls during 14 years of follow-up. UFMC were estimated as (a) the annual average all-cause healthcare costs of the control subjects, and (b) as predicted values based on a generalized linear model (GLM) adjusted to patients' characteristics. Part II consisted of a CEA performed using a Markov simulation model comparing regimens of chemotherapy with/without trastuzumab, both excluding and including UFMC and for each of the UFMC estimates separately. All costs were adjusted to 2019 prices. Costs and QALYs were discounted at a yearly rate of 3%.

RESULTS

The average annual healthcare costs in the control group were $2328 (± $5662). The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $53,411/QALY and $55,903/QALY, when UFMC were excluded or included, respectively. Hence, trastuzumab was not considered cost-effective compared with a threshold of willingness-to-pay of $37,000 per QALY, regardless of the inclusion of UFMC. When UFMC were estimated on the basis of the prediction model, the ICERs were $37,968/QALY and $39,033/QALY, when UFMC were excluded or included, respectively. Thus, in this simulation, trastuzumab was not considered cost-effective, independent of the inclusion of UFMC.

CONCLUSION

Our case study revealed that the inclusion of UFMC had modest effect on the ICERs, and thus did not alter the conclusion. Thus, we should estimate context-specific UFMC if they are expected to change the ICERs significantly, and transparently report the corresponding assumptions to uphold the integrity and reliability of the economic evaluation.

Economic Evaluation of Medically Assisted Reproduction: A Methodological Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Medically assisted reproduction (MAR) is a challenging application area for health economic evaluations, entailing a broad range of costs and outcomes, stretching out long-term and accruing to several parties.

PURPOSE

To systematically review which costs and outcomes are included in published economic evaluations of MAR and to compare these with health technology assessment (HTA) prescriptions about which cost and outcomes should be considered for different evaluation objectives.

DATA SOURCES

HTA guidelines and systematic searches of PubMed Central, Embase, WOS CC, CINAHL, Cochrane (CENTRAL), HTA, and NHS EED.

STUDY SELECTION

All economic evaluations of MAR published from 2010 to 2022.

DATA EXTRACTION

A predetermined data collection form summarized study characteristics. Essential costs and outcomes of MAR were listed based on HTA and treatment guidelines for different evaluation objectives. For each study, included costs and outcomes were reviewed.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The review identified 93 cost-effectiveness estimates, of which 57% were expressed as cost-per-(healthy)-live-birth, 19% as cost-per-pregnancy, and 47% adopted a clinic perspective. Few adopted societal perspectives and only 2% used quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Broader evaluations omitted various relevant costs and outcomes related to MAR. There are several cost and outcome categories for which available HTA guidelines do not provide conclusive directions regarding inclusion or exclusion.

LIMITATIONS

Studies published before 2010 and of interventions not clearly labeled as MAR were excluded. We focus on methods rather than which MAR treatments are cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic evaluations of MAR typically calculate a short-term cost-per-live-birth from a clinic perspective. Broader analyses, using cost-per-QALY or BCRs from societal perspectives, considering the full scope of reproduction-related costs and outcomes, are scarce and often incomplete. We provide a summary of costs and outcomes for future research guidance and identify areas requiring HTA methodological development.

HIGHLIGHTS

The cost-effectiveness of MAR procedures can be exceptionally complex to estimate as there is a broad range of costs and outcomes involved, in principle stretching out over multiple generations and over many stakeholders.We list 21 key areas of costs and outcomes of MAR. Which of these needs to be accounted for alters for different evaluation objectives (determined by the type of economic evaluation, time horizon considered, and perspective).Published studies mostly investigate cost-effectiveness in the very short-term, from a clinic perspective, expressed as cost-per-live-birth. There is a lack of comprehensive economic evaluations that adopt a broader perspective with a longer time horizon. The broader the evaluation objective, the more relevant costs and outcomes were excluded.For several costs and outcomes, particularly those relevant for broader, societal evaluations of MAR, the inclusion or exclusion is theoretically ambiguous, and HTA guidelines do not offer sufficient guidance.

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating dietary industrial trans fatty acids in Kenya: cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

To model the potential health gains and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory limit of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) in Kenyan foods.

DESIGN

Multiple cohort proportional multistate life table model, incorporating existing data from the Global Burden of Disease study, pooled analyses of observational studies and peer-reviewed evidence of healthcare and policy implementation costs.

SETTING

Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥20 years at baseline (n=50 million).

INTERVENTION

A mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) in the Kenyan food supply compared with a base case scenario of maintaining current trans fat intake.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Averted ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events and deaths, health-adjusted life years; healthcare costs; policy implementation costs; net costs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

Over the first 10 years, the intervention was estimated to prevent ~1900 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1714; 2148) IHD deaths and ~17 000 (95% UI: 15 475; 19 551) IHD events, and to save ~US$50 million (95% UI: 44; 56). The corresponding estimates over the lifespan of the model population were ~49 000 (95% UI: 43 775; 55 326) IHD deaths prevented, ~113 000 (95% UI: 100 104; 127 969) IHD events prevented and some ~US$300 million (256; 331) saved. Policy implementation costs were estimated as ~US$9 million over the first 10 years and ~US$20 million over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving regardless of the time horizon. Findings were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support policy action for a mandatory iTFA limit as a cost-saving strategy to avert IHD events and deaths in Kenya.

Associating Health-Related Quality-of-Life Score with Time Uses to Inform Productivity Measures in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The Second Panel on Cost Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommended that cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) explicitly incorporate the valuation of productive time from a societal perspective. We developed a new approach to capture productivity impacts in CEA without direct evidence on these impacts by associating varying levels of health-related quality-of-life (HrQoL) score with different time uses in the United States.

METHODS

We conceptualized a framework that estimates the association between HrQoL score with productivity through time uses. We used the American Time-Use Survey (ATUS) from year 2012-2013, when data on a Well-Being Module (WBM) was additionally collected alongside ATUS. The WBM measured the quality of life (QoL) score using a visual analog scale. To operationalize our conceptual framework, we employed an econometric approach that addressed three technical issues in the observed data: (i) distinction between overall QoL and HrQoL, (ii) correlation across different categories of time use and the share structure of time-use data, and (iii) reverse causality between time uses and HrQoL score in a cross-sectional setting. Furthermore, we developed a metamodel-based algorithm to summarize the numerous estimates from the primary econometric model efficiently. Finally, we illustrated the use of our algorithm to calculate productivity and time spent seeking care costs in an empirical CEA of a prostate cancer treatment.

RESULTS

We provide the estimates of the metamodel algorithm. Incorporating these estimates into the empirical CEA reduced the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio by 27%.

CONCLUSION

Our estimates can facilitate the inclusion of productivity and time spent seeking care in CEA as recommended by the Second Panel.

Accounting for Nonhealth and Future Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Distributional Impacts of a US Cancer Prevention Strategy

OBJECTIVE

To provide up-to-date and comprehensive US data tables to estimate future net resource use, including nonlabor market production, and examine distributional impacts of including nonhealth and future costs in cost-effectiveness results.

METHODS

Using a published US cancer prevention simulation model, the paper evaluated the lifetime cost effectiveness of implementing a 10% excise tax on processed meats across age- and sex-specific population subgroups. The model examined multiple scenarios accounting for cancer-related healthcare expenditure (HCE) only, cancer-related and unrelated background HCE, adding productivity benefits (i.e., patient time, cancer-related productivity loss, and background labor and nonlabor market production), and with nonhealth consumption costs, adjusted for household economies of scale. Additional analyses include using population-average versus age-sex-specific estimates for quantifying production and consumption value, as well as comparing direct model estimation versus postcorrections with Meltzer's approximation for incorporating future resource use.

RESULTS

Accounting for nonhealth and future costs impacted cost-effectiveness results across population subgroups, often leading to changes in "cost-saving" determination. Including nonlabor market production had a noticeable impact on estimating future resource use and reduced the bias toward undervaluing productivity among females and older populations. The use of age-sex-specific estimates resulted in less favorable cost-effectiveness results compared with population-average estimates. Meltzer's approximation provided reasonable corrections among the middle-aged population for re-engineering cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare sector to a societal perspective.

CONCLUSION

With updated US data tables, this paper can help researchers conduct a comprehensive value assessment to reflect net resource use (health and nonhealth resource use minus production value) from a societal perspective.

Harmonization issues in unit costing of service use for multi-country, multi-sectoral health economic evaluations: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Valuation is a critical part of the costing process in health economic evaluations. However, an overview of specific issues relevant to the European context on harmonizing methodological requirements for the valuation of costs to be used in health economic evaluation is lacking. We aimed to inform the development of an international, harmonized and multi-sectoral costing framework, as sought in the European PECUNIA (ProgrammE in Costing, resource use measurement and outcome valuation for Use in multi-sectoral National and International health economic evaluAtions) project.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review (information extraction 2008-2021) to a) to demonstrate the degree of heterogeneity that currently exists in the literature regarding central terminology, b) to generate an overview of the most relevant areas for harmonization in multi-sectoral and multi-national costing processes for health economic evaluations, and c) to provide insights into country level variation regarding economic evaluation guidance. A complex search strategy was applied covering key publications on costing methods, glossaries, and international costing recommendations augmented by a targeted author and reference search as well as snowballing. Six European countries served as case studies to describe country-specific harmonization issues. Identified information was qualitatively synthesized and cross-checked using a newly developed, pilot-tested data extraction form.

RESULTS

Costing methods for services were found to be heterogeneous between sectors and country guidelines and may, in practice, be often driven by data availability and reimbursement systems in place. The lack of detailed guidance regarding specific costing methods, recommended data sources, double-counting of costs between sectors, adjustment of unit costs for inflation, transparent handling of overhead costs as well as the unavailability of standardized unit costing estimates in most countries were identified as main drivers of country specific differences in costing methods with a major impact on valuation and cost-effectiveness evidence.

CONCLUSION

This review provides a basic summary of existing costing practices for evaluative purposes across sectors and countries and highlights several common methodological factors influencing divergence in cost valuation methods that would need to be systematically incorporated and addressed in future costing practices to achieve more comparable, harmonized health economic evaluation evidence.

Future Offspring Costs in Economic Evaluation

Economic evaluation guidelines increasingly prescribe inclusion of all future costs. We point at an important dimension of future costs that is systematically neglected. Healthcare can affect future offspring, either through affecting the patient's fertility or through determining future offspring's health. As we show, the future costs associated with these changes can be substantial and will vary across interventions and demographic groups. However, systematic inclusion of these future offspring costs would raise many problems on its own. Based on the population ethics concept of necessitarianism, we suggest that only those future costs that spring from 'necessary' future lives should be included in future cost calculations, while all costs associated with 'potential' future lives can be ignored. This approach allows excluding most future offspring costs and avoids skewed cost-effectiveness outcomes of interventions with fertility effects, while taking into account the economic implications of preventing disease in future generations that will exist by necessity. Overall, future generations expose a substantial gap in today's Health Technology Assessment (HTA) methodology and further discussion of the issues they raise is needed.

Incorporating future unrelated medical costs in cost-effectiveness analysis in China

The occurrence of future unrelated medical costs is a direct consequence of life-prolonging interventions, but most pharmacoeconomic guidelines recommend the exclusion of these costs. The Chinese guidelines were updated in 2020, taking an exclusion approach for the future unrelated medical cost. We notice the research surrounding this issue continues in other countries and leads to an inclusion recommendation in some guidelines. Meanwhile, this issue has not been discussed in China, reflecting an urgent need for extensive research on its impact. We reviewed the theoretical and practical studies surrounding the inclusion of future unrelated medical costs, summarised the landscape of guidelines in other jurisdictions. We found that the inclusion would increase the internal and external consistency of economic evaluation and the comparability of results between different jurisdictions. However, more research is needed surrounding this issue. We proposed a future research agenda to inform the update of Chinese guidelines. We recommend research on individual-level healthcare reimbursement data and end-of-life costs from hospital administrative data to generate the age-specific, sex-specific and condition-specific costs. We also recommend establishing a formal process to evaluate the ethical and economic impact of including future unrelated medical costs and adjust the threshold accordingly in the guidelines.

Global estimates for the lifetime cost of managing HIV

OBJECTIVE

There are an estimated 38 million people with HIV (PWH), with significant economic consequences. We aimed to collate global lifetime costs for managing HIV.

DESIGN

We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020184490) using five databases from 1999 to 2019.

METHODS

Studies were included if they reported primary data on lifetime costs for PWH. Two reviewers independently assessed the titles and abstracts, and data were extracted from full texts: lifetime cost, year of currency, country of currency, discount rate, time horizon, perspective, method used to estimate cost and cost items included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the discounted lifetime costs [2019 United States dollars (USD)].

RESULTS

Of the 505 studies found, 260 full texts were examined and 75 included. Fifty (67%) studies were from high-income, 22 (29%) from middle-income and three (4%) from low-income countries. Of the 65 studies, which reported study perspective, 45 (69%) were healthcare provider and the remainder were societal. The median lifetime costs for managing HIV differed according to: country income level: $5221 [interquartile range (IQR)]: 2978-11 177) for low-income to $377 820 (IQR: 260 176-541 430) for high-income; study perspective: $189 230 (IQR: 14 794-424 069) for healthcare provider, to $508 804 (IQR: 174 781-812 418) for societal; and decision model: $190 255 (IQR: 13 588-429 772) for Markov cohort, to $283 905 (IQR: 10 558-453 779) for microsimulation models.

CONCLUSION

Estimating the lifetime costs of managing HIV is useful for budgetary planning and to ensure HIV management is affordable for all. Furthermore, HIV prevention strategies need to be strengthened to avert these high costs of managing HIV.

On time horizons in health economic evaluations

The issue of time horizons has received scant attention in discussions pertaining to health economic evaluations unlike discounting or translation of health outcomes into life-cycle measures (e.g. quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years). The available guidelines do not offer clear and consistent guidance for many problems addressed in health economic evaluations. In practice, variation of time horizons between studies for the same diseases is a matter of concern, as results on cost-effectiveness depend on the time horizon. Our paper contributes to establishing a consistent approach to setting time horizons across common types of health economic evaluations and mitigating potential bias where the choice of a time horizon may affect results of the evaluation. We find that available guidance is clear only for patient-focused interventions, but not in the presence of population-level effects owing to transmission of infections or other linkages. We distinguish between a policy period-over which an intervention is delivered or initiated-and an evaluation period over which the effects are measured. One important challenge in establishing a time horizon for evaluation is that, at least for infectious diseases, the state of the epidemic at the end of the policy period cannot be evaluated precisely and incorporated in the results of an economic evaluation. While longer policy periods partly mitigate this challenge, they are subject to greater uncertainty, and outcomes may not adequately reflect the cost-effectiveness of current policies because outcomes reflect an average over the policy period. Incremental analysis on interventions implemented in sub-periods of the policy period (especially at the beginning) potentially improves accuracy and helps to identify potential for improving cost-effectiveness by varying the path of implementation or the mix of interventions offered over time.

Health care resource utilization and costs of recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection in the elderly: a real-world claims analysis

BACKGROUND: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) affected an estimated 365,000 persons in the United States in 2017. Despite a nationally decreasing trend of CDI cases, the population incidence of recurrent CDI (rCDI) has not improved. Elderly individuals (aged ≥ 65 years) are at higher risk of CDI, rCDI, and complicated CDI compared with younger individuals. OBJECTIVE: To analyze Medicare fee-for-service data for 12 months after an initial CDI episode, in order to obtain real-world data on health care resource utilization (HRU) and costs for elderly patients with CDI and rCDI. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients who were aged ≥ 65 years and had a first (index) CDI diagnosis from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2016, and continuous enrollment in Medicare Parts A, B, and D during the 12-month pre-index and 12-month post-index periods was conducted. A CDI episode was identified by either an inpatient stay with CDI diagnosis code or an outpatient medical claim with a CDI diagnosis code plus a CDI treatment. Each CDI episode was followed by a 14-day CDI claim-free period after the last CDI claim or end of CDI treatment. rCDI was a second or subsequent episode of CDI that occurred within an 8-week window after the 14-day CDI claim-free period. The number of CDI and rCDI episodes, HRU, time to recurrence, and total all-cause direct medical costs were calculated over the 12-month pre-index (baseline) and 12-month follow-up periods and stratified by number of rCDI episodes (No rCDI, 1 rCDI, 2 rCDI, 3+ rCDI). RESULTS: A total of 268,762 patients with an index CDI were included. Mean age was 78.3 years, and 69.0% were female. HRU was higher during the 6 months immediately pre-index versus 7-12 months pre-index, including a higher proportion of patients with a hospital admission (55.1% vs. 27.5%) or emergency department visit (41.3% vs. 27.4%), respectively. Moreover, 34.7% of the study population experienced rCDI. Of those who experienced 1 recurrence, 59.1% had a second recurrence, and of those who had 2 recurrences, 58.4% had a third. During the 12-month follow-up, postacute care was used by at least 70% of each rCDI cohort. The proportion of patients with ≥ 4 hospital admissions during follow-up was highest for the 3+ rCDI cohort (24.9% of patients). During the 12-month follow-up, mean total all-cause direct costs were $76,024, $99,348, $96,148, and $96,517 for the No rCDI, 1 rCDI, 2 rCDI, and 3+ rCDI cohorts, respectively, largely driven by inpatient costs. Adjusted all-cause total costs were significantly higher for all 3 rCDI cohorts compared with the No rCDI cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Elderly individuals experienced high rates of recurrence after their first CDI episode, and especially after a prior recurrence. The intensity of HRU during follow-up was higher for patients who suffered recurrences. Patients with rCDI had the burden of higher costs of care, including the patient out-of-pocket responsibility, versus patients with a single CDI episode. DISCLOSURES: Funding for this study was provided by Ferring Pharmaceuticals. Nelson is an employee of Ferring Pharmaceuticals, and Scott, Boules, and Unni were employees of Ferring Pharmaceuticals at the time of this study. Teigland and Parente are employees of Avalere Health and provided consulting services to Ferring Pharmaceuticals. Feuerstadt has served as a consultant to and on the speakers bureau for Merck and Co. and has served as a consultant for Ferring Pharmaceuticals and Roche Pharmaceuticals. Portions of the data contained in this study appeared as an abstract/ePoster for the AMCP Annual Meeting 2020, April 2020.

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin as a treatment for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a multinational health-economic analysis of DAPA-HF

AIM

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin added to standard therapy, vs. standard therapy only, in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), from the perspective of UK, German, and Spanish payers.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A lifetime Markov model was built to estimate outcomes in patients with HFrEF. Health states were defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score, type 2 diabetes and worsening HF events. The incidence of worsening HF and all-cause mortality was estimated using negative binomial regression models and parametric survival analysis, respectively. Direct healthcare costs (2019 British pounds/Euro) and patient-reported outcomes (EQ-5D) were sourced from the existing literature and the Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure trial (DAPA-HF), respectively; the median duration of follow-up in DAPA-HF was 18.2 months (range: 0-27.8). Future costs and effects were discounted at 3.0% for the Spanish and German analyses and 3.5% for the UK analysis. In the UK setting, treatment with dapagliflozin was estimated to increase life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from 5.62 to 6.20 (+0.58) and 4.13 to 4.61 (+0.48), respectively, and reduce lifetime hospitalizations for HF (925 and 820 events per 1000 patients for placebo and dapagliflozin, respectively). Similar results were obtained for Germany and Spain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £5822, €5379 and €9406/QALY in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, more than 90% of simulations were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000/QALY in UK and €20 000/QALY in Germany and Spain.

CONCLUSION

Dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment for HFrEF in the UK, German and Spanish healthcare systems.

Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Australia: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

trans-fatty acids (TFAs) are a well-known risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD). In Australia, the highest TFA intake is concentrated to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Elimination of industrial TFA (iTFA) from the Australian food supply could result in reduced IHD mortality and morbidity while improving health equity. However, such legislation could lead to additional costs for both government and food industry. Thus, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and effects on health equality of an iTFA ban from the Australian food supply.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Markov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden and health equity, as well as the cost-effectiveness of a national ban of iTFA in Australia. Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011-2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution with a mean of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from nonindustrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Policy costs, avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and changes in IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the adult Australian population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using net policy cost and HALYs gained. Health benefits and healthcare cost changes were also assessed in subgroups based on socioeconomic status, defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Compared to a base case of no ban and current TFA intakes, elimination of iTFA was estimated to prevent 2,294 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,765; 2,851) IHD deaths and 9,931 (95% UI: 8,429; 11,532) IHD events over the first 10 years. The greatest health benefits were accrued to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles and among Australians living outside of major cities. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving (net cost <0 AUD) or cost-effective (i.e., ICER < AUD 169,361/HALY) regardless of the time horizon, with ICERs of 1,073 (95% UI: dominant; 3,503) and 1,956 (95% UI: 1,010; 2,750) AUD/HALY over 10 years and lifetime, respectively. Findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Key limitations of the study include the lack of recent data of TFA intake and the small sample sizes used to estimate intakes in subgroups. As with all simulation models, our study does not prove that a ban of iTFA will prevent IHD, rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and corresponding uncertainty of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model estimates that a ban of iTFAs could avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Australia and would likely be a highly cost-effective strategy to reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in health. These findings suggest that elimination of iTFA can cost-effectively improve health and health equality even in countries with low iTFA intake.

Health economic evaluation of gene replacement therapies: methodological issues and recommendations

Objective: To provide recommendations for addressing previously identified key challenges in health economic evaluations of Gene Replacement Therapies (GRTs), including: 1) the assessment of clinical effectiveness; 2) the valuation of health outcomes; 3) the time horizon and extrapolation of effects beyond trial duration; 4) the estimation of costs; 5) the selection of appropriate discount rates; 6) the incorporation of broader elements of value; and 7) affordability. Methods: A literature review on economic evaluations of GRT was performed. Interviews were conducted with 8 European and US health economic experts with experience in evaluations of GRT. Targeted literature reviews were conducted to investigate further potential solutions to specific challenges. Recommendations: Experts agreed on factors to be considered to ensure the acceptability of historical cohorts by HTA bodies. Existing prospective registries or, if not available, retrospective registries, may be used to analyse different disease trajectories and inform extrapolations. The importance of expert opinion due to limited data was acknowledged. Expert opinion should be obtained using structured elicitation techniques. Broader elements of value, beyond health gains directly related to treatment, can be considered through the application of a factor to inflate the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or a higher cost-effectiveness threshold. Additionally, the use of cost-benefit analysis and saved young life equivalents (SAVE) were proposed as alternatives to QALYs for the valuations of outcomes of GRT as they can incorporate broader elements of value and avoid problems of eliciting utilities for paediatric diseases. Conclusions: While some of the limitations of economic evaluations of GRT are inherent to limited clinical data and lack of experience with these treatments, others may be addressed by methodological research to be conducted by health economists.

Cured Today, Ill Tomorrow: A Method for Including Future Unrelated Medical Costs in Economic Evaluation in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

In many countries, future unrelated medical costs occurring during life-years gained are excluded from economic evaluation, and benefits of unrelated medical care are implicitly included, leading to life-extending interventions being disproportionately favored over quality of life-improving interventions. This article provides a standardized framework for the inclusion of future unrelated medical costs and demonstrates how this framework can be applied in England and Wales.

METHODS

Data sources are combined to construct estimates of per-capita National Health Service spending by age, sex, and time to death, and a framework is developed for adjusting these estimates for costs of related diseases. Using survival curves from 3 empirical examples illustrates how our estimates for unrelated National Health Service spending can be used to include unrelated medical costs in cost-effectiveness analysis and the impact depending on age, life-years gained, and baseline costs of the target group.

RESULTS

Our results show that including future unrelated medical costs is feasible and standardizable. Empirical examples show that this inclusion leads to an increase in the ICER of between 7% and 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

This article contributes to the methodology debate over unrelated costs and how to systematically include them in economic evaluation. Results show that it is both important and possible to include future unrelated medical costs.

Healthcare resource utilization and direct medical costs associated with index and recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection: a real-world data analysis

Aims: This study aimed to evaluate all-cause economic outcomes, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and costs in patients with Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) and recurrent CDI (rCDI) using commercial claims from a large database representing various healthcare settings.Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of commercial claims data from the IQVIA PharMetrics Plus database was conducted for patients aged 18-64 years with CDI episodes requiring inpatient stay with CDI diagnosis code or an outpatient medical claim for CDI plus a CDI treatment. Index CDI episodes occurred between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2017, including only those where patients were observable 6 months before and 12 months after the index episode. Each CDI episode was followed by a 14-d claim-free period. rCDI was defined as another CDI episode within an 8-week window following the claim-free period. HRU, all-cause direct medical costs and time to rCDI were calculated over 12 months and stratified by number of rCDI episodes.Results: A total of 46,571 patients with index CDI were included. Mean time from one CDI episode to the next was approximately 1 month. In the 12-month follow-up period, those with no recurrence had 1.4 inpatient visits per person and those with 3 or more recurrences had 5.8. Most patients with 3 or more recurrences had 2 or more hospital admissions. The mean annual, total all-cause direct medical costs per patient were $71,980 for those with no recurrence and $207,733 for those with 3 or more recurrences.Limitations: The study included individuals 18-64 years only. A stringent definition of rCDI was used, which may have underestimated the incidence of rCDI.Conclusions: CDI and rCDI are associated with substantial healthcare resource utilization and direct medical costs. Timing of recurrences can be predictable, providing a window of opportunity for interventions. Prevention of multiple rCDI appears essential to reduce healthcare costs.

Future Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: Past, Present, Future

There has been considerable debate on the extent to which future costs should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses of health technologies. In this article, we summarize the theoretical debates and empirical research in this area and highlight the conclusions that can be drawn for current practice. For future related and future unrelated medical costs, the literature suggests that inclusion is required to obtain optimal outcomes from available resources. This conclusion does not depend on the perspective adopted by the decision maker. Future non-medical costs are only relevant when adopting a societal perspective; these should be included if the benefits of non-medical consumption and production are also included in the evaluation. Whether this is the case currently remains unclear, given that benefits are typically quantified in quality-adjusted life-years and only limited research has been performed on the extent to which these (implicitly) capture benefits beyond health. Empirical research has shown that the impact of including future costs can be large, and that estimation of such costs is feasible. In practice, however, future unrelated medical costs and future unrelated non-medical consumption costs are typically excluded from economic evaluations. This is explicitly prescribed in some pharmacoeconomic guidelines. Further research is warranted on the development and improvement of methods for the estimation of future costs. Standardization of methods is needed to enhance the practical applicability of inclusion for the analyst and the comparability of the outcomes of different studies. For future non-medical costs, further research is also needed on the extent to which benefits related to this spending are captured in the measurement and valuation of health benefits, and how to broaden the scope of the evaluation if they are not sufficiently captured.