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Varamballi P, Babu N N, Mudgal PP, Shetty U, Jayaram A, Karunakaran K, Arumugam S, Mukhopadhyay C. Spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in India under current and future climatic scenarios. Acta Trop 2024; 260:107403. [PMID: 39278522 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2024] [Revised: 08/08/2024] [Accepted: 09/12/2024] [Indexed: 09/18/2024]
Abstract
Aedes is the most globally distributed mosquito genus in the 21st century and transmits various arboviral diseases. The rapid expansion of Ae. Aegypti and Ae. albopictus breeding habitats is a significant threat to global public health, driven by temperature and precipitation changes. In this study, bioclimatic variables were employed to predict the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in India. The reference coordinate points of (n = 583) Aedes occurrences at a scale of ∼1 km and nineteen bioclimatic factors were retrieved to train SDM (Species Distribution Models) for both species. Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the species' fundamental climatic niche distributions. Future projections were made using global climate models for 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 separately. The models performed reasonably well (AUC > 0.77). Both species thrived in reduced diurnal temperature and higher annual mean temperatures, with suitability increasing alongside precipitation. Ae. aegypti's projected present and future distribution was broader than that of Ae. Albopictus. The expansion of Aedes suitability varied under different future climatic scenarios. Suitability for Ae. aegypti could expand from between 17.6 and 41.1 % in 2100 under SSP (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios 1 and 3, respectively, whereas for Ae. albopictus suitability increased from between 10.2 and 25 % under SSP scenarios 1 and 3 respectively. Preparing for future epidemics and outbreaks requires robust vector distribution models to identify high-risk areas, allocate resources for surveillance and control, and implement prevention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prasad Varamballi
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Naren Babu N
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India.
| | - Piya Paul Mudgal
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Ujwal Shetty
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Anup Jayaram
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Kavitha Karunakaran
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Sathishkumar Arumugam
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India
| | - Chiranjay Mukhopadhyay
- Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India.
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Zhu DR, Rajesh AJ, Meganck RM, Young EF, Munt JE, Tse VL, Yount B, Conrad H, White L, Henein S, DeSilva AM, Baric RS. Dengue virus 4/2 envelope domain chimeric virus panel maps type-specific responses against dengue serotype 2. mBio 2023; 14:e0081823. [PMID: 37800919 PMCID: PMC10653845 DOI: 10.1128/mbio.00818-23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE The four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes infect several hundred million people each year. Although primary infection is generally mild, subsequent infection by differing serotypes increases the risk for symptomatic disease ranging from fever to life-threatening shock. Despite the availability of licensed vaccines, a comprehensive understanding of antibodies that target the viral envelope protein and protect from infection remains incomplete. In this manuscript, we develop a panel of recombinant viruses that graft each envelope domain of DENV2 onto the DENV4 envelope glycoprotein, revealing protein interactions important for virus viability. Furthermore, we map neutralizing antibody responses after primary DENV2 natural infection and a human challenge model to distinct domains on the viral envelope protein. The panel of recombinant viruses provides a new tool for dissecting the E domain-specific targeting of protective antibody responses, informing future DENV vaccine design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deanna R. Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Alecia J. Rajesh
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Rita M. Meganck
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Ellen F. Young
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Jennifer E. Munt
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Victor L. Tse
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Boyd Yount
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Helen Conrad
- College of Science, Engineering and Food Science, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Laura White
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Sandra Henein
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Aravinda M. DeSilva
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Ralph S. Baric
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
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Colón-González FJ, Gibb R, Khan K, Watts A, Lowe R, Brady OJ. Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5439. [PMID: 37673859 PMCID: PMC10482941 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Felipe J Colón-González
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
- Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, NW1 2BE, UK.
| | - Rory Gibb
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Kamran Khan
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 3H2, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, ON, M5J 1A7, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- BlueDot, Toronto, ON, M5J 1A7, Canada
- Esri Canada, Toronto, ON, M3C 3R8, Canada
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, 08034, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, 08010, Spain
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
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Magalhães AR, Codeço CT, Svenning JC, Escobar LE, Van de Vuurst P, Gonçalves-Souza T. Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction. Infect Dis Poverty 2023; 12:32. [PMID: 37038199 PMCID: PMC10084676 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01084-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 03/19/2023] [Indexed: 04/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored. METHODS This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007-2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared. RESULTS Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages. CONCLUSIONS Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arthur Ramalho Magalhães
- Laboratory of Ecological Synthesis and Biodiversity Conservation (ECOFUN), Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil
| | - Cláudia Torres Codeço
- Scientific Computation Program (PROCC), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology., Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
- Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Arthropod-Borne Pathogens, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Paige Van de Vuurst
- Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Arthropod-Borne Pathogens, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
- Translational Biology, Medicine and Health Program, Virginia Tech Graduate School, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Thiago Gonçalves-Souza
- Laboratory of Ecological Synthesis and Biodiversity Conservation (ECOFUN), Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil.
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Marina R, Ariati J, Anwar A, Astuti EP, Dhewantara PW. Climate and vector-borne diseases in Indonesia: a systematic literature review and critical appraisal of evidence. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:1-28. [PMID: 36367556 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02390-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Revised: 09/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate is widely known as an important driver to transmit vector-borne diseases (VBD). However, evidence of the role of climate variability on VBD risk in Indonesia has not been adequately understood. We conducted a systematic literature review to collate and critically review studies on the relationship between climate variability and VBD in Indonesia. We searched articles on PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases that are published until December 2021. Studies that reported the relationship of climate and VBD, such as dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and malaria, were included. For the reporting, we followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 66 out of 284 studies were reviewed. Fifty-two (78.8%) papers investigated dengue, 13 (19.7%) papers studied malaria, one (1.5%) paper discussed chikungunya, and no (0%) paper reported on Zika. The studies were predominantly conducted in western Indonesian cities. Most studies have examined the short-term effect of climate variability on the incidence of VBD at national, sub-national, and local levels. Rainfall (n = 60/66; 90.9%), mean temperature (Tmean) (n = 50/66; 75.8%), and relative humidity (RH) (n = 50/66; 75.8%) were the common climatic factors employed in the studies. The effect of climate on the incidence of VBD was heterogenous across locations. Only a few studies have investigated the long-term effects of climate on the distribution and incidence of VBD. The paucity of high-quality epidemiological data and variation in methodology are two major issues that limit the generalizability of evidence. A unified framework is required for future research to assess the impacts of climate on VBD in Indonesia to provide reliable evidence for better policymaking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rina Marina
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia.
| | - Jusniar Ariati
- Center for Health Services Policy, Health Policy Agency, Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Jl. Percetakan Negara No. 29, Jakarta, 10560, Indonesia
| | - Athena Anwar
- Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Agency for Research and Innovation, Jl. Djunjunan No. 133, Bandung, 40174, Indonesia
| | - Endang Puji Astuti
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia
| | - Pandji Wibawa Dhewantara
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia
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Annan E, Bukhari MH, Treviño J, Abad ZSH, Lubinda J, da Silva EA, Haque U. The ecological determinants of severe dengue: A Bayesian inferential model. ECOL INFORM 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
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Spatially weak syncronization of spreading pattern between Aedes Albopictus and dengue fever. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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8
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Ferreira HDS, Nóbrega RS, Brito PVDS, Farias JP, Amorim JH, Moreira EBM, Mendez ÉC, Luiz WB. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2022; 55:e0671. [PMID: 35674563 PMCID: PMC9176733 DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ranyére Silva Nóbrega
- Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Brasil; Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Brasil
| | | | | | - Jaime Henrique Amorim
- Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia, Brasil; Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Brasil
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Reguzova A, Fischer N, Müller M, Salomon F, Jaenisch T, Amann R. A Novel Orf Virus D1701-VrV-Based Dengue Virus (DENV) Vaccine Candidate Expressing HLA-Specific T Cell Epitopes: A Proof-of-Concept Study. Biomedicines 2021; 9:biomedicines9121862. [PMID: 34944678 PMCID: PMC8698572 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines9121862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2021] [Revised: 12/01/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Although dengue virus (DENV) affects almost half of the world’s population there are neither preventive treatments nor any long-lasting and protective vaccines available at this time. The complexity of the protective immune response to DENV is still not fully understood. The most advanced vaccine candidates focus specifically on humoral immune responses and the production of virus-neutralizing antibodies. However, results from several recent studies have revealed the protective role of T cells in the immune response to DENV. Hence, in this study, we generated a novel and potent DENV vaccine candidate based on an Orf virus (ORFV, genus Parapoxvirus) vector platform engineered to encode five highly conserved or cross-reactive DENV human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A*02- or HLA-B*07-restricted epitopes as minigenes (ORFV-DENV). We showed that ORFV-DENV facilitates the in vitro priming of CD8+ T cells from healthy blood donors based on responses to each of the encoded immunogenic peptides. Moreover, we demonstrated that peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from clinically confirmed DENV-positive donors stimulated with ORFV-DENV generate cytotoxic T cell responses to at least three of the expressed DENV peptides. Finally, we showed that ORFV-DENV could activate CD8+ T cells isolated from donors who had recovered from Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. ZIKV belongs to the same virus family (Flaviviridae) and has epitope sequences that are homologous to those of DENV. We found that highly conserved HLA-B*07-restricted ZIKV and DENV epitopes induced functional CD8+ T cell responses in PBMCs isolated from confirmed ZIKV-positive donors. In summary, this proof-of-concept study characterizes a promising new ORFV D1701-VrV-based DENV vaccine candidate that induces broad and functional epitope-specific CD8+ T cell responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alena Reguzova
- Department of Immunology, Interfaculty Institute for Cell Biology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany; (A.R.); (M.M.); (F.S.)
| | - Nico Fischer
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Tropical Medicine, Heidelberg University Hospital, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany; (N.F.); (T.J.)
| | - Melanie Müller
- Department of Immunology, Interfaculty Institute for Cell Biology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany; (A.R.); (M.M.); (F.S.)
| | - Ferdinand Salomon
- Department of Immunology, Interfaculty Institute for Cell Biology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany; (A.R.); (M.M.); (F.S.)
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Tropical Medicine, Heidelberg University Hospital, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany; (N.F.); (T.J.)
| | - Ralf Amann
- Department of Immunology, Interfaculty Institute for Cell Biology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany; (A.R.); (M.M.); (F.S.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +49-707-1298-7614
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10
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Simon LM, Rangel TF. Are Temperature Suitability and Socioeconomic Factors Reliable Predictors of Dengue Transmission in Brazil? FRONTIERS IN TROPICAL DISEASES 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2021.758393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative role of socioeconomic characteristics and their association with climate in determining dengue prevalence are poorly understood. Here we assembled essential socioeconomic factors over 5570 municipalities across Brazil and assessed their effect on dengue prevalence jointly with a previously predicted temperature suitability for transmission. Using a simultaneous autoregressive approach (SAR), we showed that the variability in the prevalence of dengue cases across Brazil is primarily explained by the combined effect of climate and socioeconomic factors. At some dengue seasons, the effect of temperature on transmission potential showed to be a more significant proxy of dengue cases. Still, socioeconomic factors explained the later increase in dengue prevalence over Brazil. In a heterogeneous country such as Brazil, recognizing the transmission drivers by vectors is a fundamental issue in effectively predicting and combating tropical diseases like dengue. Ultimately, it indicates that not considering socioeconomic factors in disease transmission predictions might compromise efficient surveillance strategies. Our study shows that sanitation, urbanization, and GDP are regional indicators that should be considered along with temperature suitability on dengue transmission, setting effective directions to mosquito-borne disease control.
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11
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Borlase A, Rudge JW, Léger E, Diouf ND, Fall CB, Diop SD, Catalano S, Sène M, Webster JP. Spillover, hybridization, and persistence in schistosome transmission dynamics at the human-animal interface. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2110711118. [PMID: 34615712 PMCID: PMC8521685 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2110711118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0 ), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Borlase
- Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield AL9 7TA, United Kingdom;
| | - James W Rudge
- Communicable Diseases Policy Research Group, Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
| | - Elsa Léger
- Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield AL9 7TA, United Kingdom
| | - Nicolas D Diouf
- Institut Supérieur de Formation Agricole et Rurale, Université de Thiès, Bambey BP 54, Senegal
- Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Agronomiques, d'Aquaculture et de Technologies Alimentaires, Université Gaston Berger, BP 32000 Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Cheikh B Fall
- Service de Parasitologie - Mycologie, Faculté de Médecine, Pharmacie et Odontologie, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, BP 5005 Dakar, Senegal
| | - Samba D Diop
- Institut Supérieur de Formation Agricole et Rurale, Université de Thiès, Bambey BP 54, Senegal
| | - Stefano Catalano
- Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield AL9 7TA, United Kingdom
| | - Mariama Sène
- Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Agronomiques, d'Aquaculture et de Technologies Alimentaires, Université Gaston Berger, BP 32000 Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Joanne P Webster
- Centre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic Diseases, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield AL9 7TA, United Kingdom
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Wu W, Ren H, Lu L. Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009745. [PMID: 34559817 PMCID: PMC8462684 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS In this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070. CONCLUSIONS The increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Coastal zone Development and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources of China, Nanjing, China
| | - Hongyan Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Liang Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Sadeghieh T, Sargeant JM, Greer AL, Berke O, Dueymes G, Gachon P, Ogden NH, Ng V. Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate. Epidemics 2021; 37:100491. [PMID: 34454353 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2020] [Revised: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change. METHODS A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes. RESULTS Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months. CONCLUSION Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tara Sadeghieh
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada.
| | - Jan M Sargeant
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Amy L Greer
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Olaf Berke
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Guillaume Dueymes
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Philippe Gachon
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - Victoria Ng
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
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A Review of Dengue's Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate. Curr Environ Health Rep 2021; 8:245-265. [PMID: 34269994 PMCID: PMC8416809 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-021-00322-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The purpose of this review is to summarize research articles that provide risk estimates for the historical and future impact that climate change has had upon dengue published from 2007 through 2019. RECENT FINDINGS Findings from 30 studies on historical health estimates, with the majority of the studies conducted in Asia, emphasized the importance of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, as well as lag effects, when trying to understand how climate change can impact the risk of contracting dengue. Furthermore, 35 studies presented findings on future health risk based upon climate projection scenarios, with a third of them showcasing global level estimates and findings across the articles emphasizing the need to understand risk at a localized level as the impacts from climate change will be experienced inequitably across different geographies in the future. Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading viral diseases in the world, with ~390 million people infected worldwide annually. Several factors have contributed towards its proliferation, including climate change. Multiple studies have previously been conducted examining the relationship between dengue and climate change, both from a historical and a future risk perspective. We searched the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health (NIEHS) Climate Change and Health Portal for literature (spanning January 2007 to September 2019) providing historical and future health risk estimates of contracting dengue infection in relation to climate variables worldwide. With an overview of the evidence of the historical and future health risk posed by dengue from climate change across different regions of the world, this review article enables the research and policy community to understand where the knowledge gaps are and what areas need to be addressed in order to implement localized adaptation measures to mitigate the health risks posed by future dengue infection.
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Family doctors to connect
global concerns
due to climate change with
local actions
: State‐of‐the art and some proposals. WORLD MEDICAL & HEALTH POLICY 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/wmh3.448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
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Olson MF, Juarez JG, Kraemer MUG, Messina JP, Hamer GL. Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009397. [PMID: 33951038 PMCID: PMC8128236 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2020] [Revised: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 04/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The world's most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. The objective in this study is to explore previously published global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term 'aegyptism without arbovirus'. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with human population density, suggesting that locations with lower human population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark F. Olson
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Jose G. Juarez
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | | | - Jane P. Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, and Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gabriel L. Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
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Hamlet A, Gaythorpe KAM, Garske T, Ferguson NM. Seasonal and inter-annual drivers of yellow fever transmission in South America. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0008974. [PMID: 33428623 PMCID: PMC7822559 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2019] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In the last 20 years yellow fever (YF) has seen dramatic changes to its incidence and geographic extent, with the largest outbreaks in South America since 1940 occurring in the previously unaffected South-East Atlantic coast of Brazil in 2016-2019. While habitat fragmentation and land-cover have previously been implicated in zoonotic disease, their role in YF has not yet been examined. We examined the extent to which vegetation, land-cover, climate and host population predicted the numbers of months a location reported YF per year and by each month over the time-period. Two sets of models were assessed, one looking at interannual differences over the study period (2003-2016), and a seasonal model looking at intra-annual differences by month, averaging over the years of the study period. Each was fit using hierarchical negative-binomial regression in an exhaustive model fitting process. Within each set, the best performing models, as measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), were combined to create ensemble models to describe interannual and seasonal variation in YF. The models reproduced the spatiotemporal heterogeneities in YF transmission with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.43 (95% CI 0.41-0.45) for the interannual model and 0.66 (95% CI 0.64-0.67) for the seasonal model. For the interannual model, EVI, land-cover and vegetation heterogeneity were the primary contributors to the variance explained by the model, and for the seasonal model, EVI, day temperature and rainfall amplitude. Our models explain much of the spatiotemporal variation in YF in South America, both seasonally and across the period 2003-2016. Vegetation type (EVI), heterogeneity in vegetation (perhaps a proxy for habitat fragmentation) and land cover explain much of the trends in YF transmission seen. These findings may help understand the recent expansions of the YF endemic zone, as well as to the highly seasonal nature of YF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arran Hamlet
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tini Garske
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Neil M. Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Rohat G, Monaghan A, Hayden MH, Ryan SJ, Charrière E, Wilhelmi O. Intersecting vulnerabilities: climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS : ERL [WEB SITE] 2020; 15:084046. [PMID: 38585625 PMCID: PMC10997346 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
Understanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix-combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to + 177% at the national scale in 2080 under SSP5*RCP8.5 relative to a historical baseline. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure would be about 30% lower under RCP2.6 compared to RCP8.5. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underline the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Rohat
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America
| | - Andrew Monaghan
- Research Computing, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States of America
| | - Mary H Hayden
- Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Colorado, Springs, CO, United States of America
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Elodie Charrière
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Olga Wilhelmi
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America
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Donnelly MAP, Kluh S, Snyder RE, Barker CM. Quantifying sociodemographic heterogeneities in the distribution of Aedes aegypti among California households. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008408. [PMID: 32692760 PMCID: PMC7394445 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 05/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The spread of Aedes aegypti in California and other regions of the U.S. has increased the need to understand the potential for local chains of Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission, particularly in arid regions where the ecology of these mosquitoes is less understood. For public health and vector control programs, it is helpful to know whether variation in risk of local transmission can be attributed to socio-demographic factors that could help to target surveillance and control programs. Socio-demographic factors have been shown to influence transmission risk of dengue virus outside the U.S. by modifying biting rates and vector abundance. In regions of the U.S. where Ae. aegypti have recently invaded and where residential areas are structured differently than those in the tropics where Ae. aegypti are endemic, it is unclear how socio-demographic factors modify the abundance of Ae. aegypti populations. Understanding heterogeneities among households in Ae. aegypti abundance will provide a better understanding of local vectorial capacity and is an important component of understanding risk of local Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Los Angeles County, California during summer 2017 to understand the causes of variation in relative abundance of Ae. aegypti among households. We surveyed 161 houses, representing a wide range of incomes. Surveys consisted of systematic adult mosquito collections, inspections of households and properties, and administration of a questionnaire in English or Spanish. Adult Ae. aegypti were detected at 72% of households overall and were found indoors at 12% of households. An average of 3.1 Ae. aegypti were collected per household. Ae. aegypti abundance outdoors was higher in lower-income neighborhoods and around older households with larger outdoor areas, greater densities of containers with standing water, less frequent yard maintenance, and greater air-conditioner use. We also found that Ae. aegypti abundance indoors was higher in households that had less window and door screening, less air-conditioner usage, more potted plants indoors, more rain-exposed containers around the home, and lower neighborhood human population densities. Our results indicate that, in the areas of southern California studied, there are behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of Ae. aegypti abundance, and that low-income households could be at higher risk for exposure to Ae. aegypti biting and potentially greater risk for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus transmission if a local outbreak were to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marisa A. P. Donnelly
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Susanne Kluh
- Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District, Santa Fe Springs, California, United States of America
| | - Robert E. Snyder
- Vector-borne Disease Section, Division of Communicable Disease Control, California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
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Giesen C, Roche J, Redondo-Bravo L, Ruiz-Huerta C, Gomez-Barroso D, Benito A, Herrador Z. The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa. Pathog Glob Health 2020; 114:287-301. [PMID: 32584659 PMCID: PMC7480509 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2020.1783865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite being one of the continents with the least greenhouse gas emissions, no continent
is being struck as severely by climate change (CC) as Africa. Mosquito-borne diseases
(MBD) cause major human diseases in this continent. Current knowledge suggests that MBD
range could expand dramatically in response to CC. This study aimed at assessing the
relationship between CC and MBD in Africa. Methods For this purpose, a systematic peer
review was carried out, considering all articles indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Embase and
CENTRAL. Search terms referring to MBD, CC and environmental factors were screened in
title, abstract and keywords.Results A total of twenty-nine studies were included, most of
them on malaria (61%), being Anopheles spp. (61%) the most
commonly analyzed vector, mainly in Eastern Africa (48%). Seventy-nine percent of these
studies were based on predictive models. Seventy-two percent of the reviewed studies
considered that CC impacts on MBD epidemiology. MBD prevalence will increase according to
69% of the studies while 17% predicted a decrease. MBD expansion throughout the continent
was also predicted. Most studies showed a positive relationship between observed or
predicted results and CC. However, there was a great heterogeneity in methodologies and a
tendency to reductionism, not integrating other variables that interact with both the
environment and MBD. In addition, most results have not yet been tested. A global health
approach is desirable in this kind of research. Nevertheless, we cannot wait for science
to approve something that needs to be addressed now to avoid greater effects in the
future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Giesen
- Unidad de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario Infanta Sofía , Madrid, Spain
| | - Jesús Roche
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) , Madrid, Spain
| | - Lidia Redondo-Bravo
- Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario la Paz , Madrid, Spain
| | - Claudia Ruiz-Huerta
- Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario de la Cruz Roja , Madrid, Spain
| | - Diana Gomez-Barroso
- Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) , Madrid, Spain.,Consorcio de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP) , Madrid, Spain
| | - Agustin Benito
- Centro Nacional de Medicina Tropical, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) , Madrid, Spain.,Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Enfermedades Tropicales (RICET) , Madrid, Spain
| | - Zaida Herrador
- Centro Nacional de Medicina Tropical, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) , Madrid, Spain.,Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Enfermedades Tropicales (RICET) , Madrid, Spain
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Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17072453. [PMID: 32260252 PMCID: PMC7177405 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17072453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2020] [Revised: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever is an important arboviral disease in many countries. Its incidence has increased during the last decade in central Vietnam. Most dengue studies in Vietnam focused on the northern area (Hanoi) and southern regions but not on central Vietnam. Dengue transmission dynamics and relevant environmental risk factors in central Vietnam are not understood. This study aimed to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever in central Vietnam and effects of climatic factors and abundance of mosquitoes on its transmission. Dengue and mosquito surveillance data were obtained from the Department of Vector Control and Border Quarantine at Nha Trang Pasteur Institute. Geographic Information System and satellite remote sensing techniques were used to perform spatiotemporal analyses and to develop climate models using generalized additive models. During 2005-2018, 230,458 dengue cases were reported in central Vietnam. Da Nang and Khanh Hoa were two major hotspots in the study area. The final models indicated the important role of Indian Ocean Dipole, multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, and vector index in dengue transmission in both regions. Regional climatic variables and mosquito population may drive dengue transmission in central Vietnam. These findings provide important information for developing an early dengue warning system in central Vietnam.
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Xu Z, Bambrick H, Frentiu FD, Devine G, Yakob L, Williams G, Hu W. Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008118. [PMID: 32119666 PMCID: PMC7067491 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2019] [Revised: 03/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Gregor Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gail Williams
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- * E-mail:
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Wu S, Ren H, Chen W, Li T. Neglected Urban Villages in Current Vector Surveillance System: Evidences in Guangzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 17:ijerph17010002. [PMID: 31861276 PMCID: PMC6981632 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17010002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2019] [Revised: 12/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/15/2019] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Numerous urban villages (UVs) with substandard living conditions that cause people to live there with vulnerability to health impacts, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever (DF), are major environmental and public health concerns in highly urbanized regions, especially in developing countries. It is necessary to explore the relationship between UVs and vector for effectively dealing with these problems. In this study, land-use types, including UVs, normal construction land (NCL), unused land (UL), vegetation, and water, were retrieved from the high-resolution remotely sensed imagery in the central area of Guangzhou in 2017. The vector density from May to October in 2017, including Aedes. albopictus (Ae. albopictus)’s Breteau index (BI), standard space index (SSI), and adult density index (ADI) were obtained from the vector surveillance system implemented by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of vector monitoring sites and vector density were analyzed on a fine scale, and then the Geodetector tool was further employed to explore the relationships between vector density and land-use types. The monitoring sites were mainly located in NCL (55.70%–56.44%) and UV (13.14%–13.92%). Among the total monitoring sites of BI (79), SSI (312), and ADI (326), the random sites accounted for about 88.61%, 97.12%, and 98.47%, respectively. The density of Ae. albopictus was temporally related to rainfall and temperature and was obviously differentiated among different land-use types. Meanwhile, the grids with higher density, which were mostly concentrated in the Pearl River fork zone that collects a large number of UVs, showed that the density of Ae. albopictus was spatially associated with the UVs. Next, the results of the Geodetector illustrated that UVs posed great impact on the density of Ae. albopictus across the central region of Guangzhou. We suggest that the number of monitoring sites in the UVs should be appropriately increased to strengthen the current vector surveillance system in Guangzhou. This study will provide targeted guidance for local authorities, making more effective control and prevention measures on the DF epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sijia Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China;
- College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, No.8 Shangsan Road, Fuzhou 350007, China;
| | - Hongyan Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China;
- Correspondence: (H.R.); (T.L.)
| | - Wenhui Chen
- College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, No.8 Shangsan Road, Fuzhou 350007, China;
| | - Tiegang Li
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
- Correspondence: (H.R.); (T.L.)
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Charette M, Berrang-Ford L, Coomes O, Llanos-Cuentas EA, Cárcamo C, Kulkarni M, Harper SL. Dengue Incidence and Sociodemographic Conditions in Pucallpa, Peruvian Amazon: What Role for Modification of the Dengue-Temperature Relationship? Am J Trop Med Hyg 2019; 102:180-190. [PMID: 31701852 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a climate-sensitive disease with an increasing global burden. Although the relationship between meteorological conditions and dengue incidence is well established, less is known about the modifying nature of sociodemographic variables on that relationship. We assess the strength and direction of sociodemographic effect modification of the temperature-dengue relationship in the second largest city of the Peruvian Amazon to identify populations that may have heightened vulnerability to dengue under varying climate conditions. We used weekly dengue counts and averaged meteorological variables to evaluate the association between disease incidence, meteorological exposures, and sociodemographic effect modifiers (gender, age, and district) in negative binomial regression models. District was included to consider geographical effect modification. We found that being a young child or elderly, being female, and living in the district of Manantay increased dengue's incidence rate ratio (IRR) as a result of 1°C increase in weekly mean temperature (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI: 1.99-4.50 for women less than 5 years old and IRR = 2.86, 95% CI: = 1.93-4.22 for women older than 65 years, both estimates valid for the rainy season). The effect of temperature on dengue depended on season, with stronger effects during rainy seasons. Sociodemographic variables can provide options for intervention to mitigate health impacts with a changing climate. Our results indicate that patterns of baseline risk between regions and sociodemographic conditions can differ substantially from trends in climate sensitivity. These results challenge the assumption that the distribution of climate change impacts will be patterned similarly to existing social gradients in health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margot Charette
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Lea Berrang-Ford
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Oliver Coomes
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | | | - César Cárcamo
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Manisha Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
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Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Dengue Infection in Adults in the 2017 Outbreak in Vietnam. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2019; 2019:3085827. [PMID: 31815129 PMCID: PMC6877935 DOI: 10.1155/2019/3085827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2019] [Accepted: 08/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Purpose The clinical features and laboratory results of dengue-infected adult patients admitted to the hospital during the 2017 outbreak were analyzed in this study. Method This is a cross-sectional study. 2922 patients aged 18 years or more with dengue fever in National Hospital for Tropical Diseases (NHTD) in the North and Hospital for Tropical Disease (HTD) in the South of Vietnam were recruited in this study. Result Patients were admitted in the hospital around the year and concentrated from August to December, in 53/63 (84.0%) provinces in Vietnam, and patients in all ages were affected. The number of patients with dengue fever was 1675 (57.3%), dengue with warning signs 914 (31.3%), and severe dengue 333 (11.4%), respectively. Among patients with severe dengue, severe plasma leakage and dengue shock account for 238 (8.1%), severe organ impairment 73 (2.5%), and severe bleeding 22 (0.75%). The rate of mortality was 0.8%, and the outcome of dengue patients is worse in the elderly and people with underlying diseases. Conclusion The 2017 dengue outbreak occurred in a larger scale than in the previous years in terms of time, location, and number of patients. More elderly patients were infected by dengue in this outbreak, and this may contribute to the mortality rate. Clinical manifestations of dengue patients in Southern Vietnam are more typical than the northern, but the rate of severe dengue is not different. The mortality risk and underlying conditions associated with dengue-infected elderly patients are worthy of further investigations in the future.
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Romero D, Olivero J, Real R, Guerrero JC. Applying fuzzy logic to assess the biogeographical risk of dengue in South America. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:428. [PMID: 31488198 PMCID: PMC6727500 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3691-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over the last decade, reports about dengue cases have increase worldwide, which is particularly worrisome in South America due to the historic record of dengue outbreaks from the seventeenth century until the first half of the twentieth century. Dengue is a viral disease that involves insect vectors, namely Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which implies that, to prevent and combat outbreaks, it is necessary to understand the set of ecological and biogeographical factors affecting both the vector species and the virus. METHODS We contribute with a methodology based on fuzzy logic that is helpful to disentangle the main factors that determine favorable environmental conditions for vectors and diseases. Using favorability functions as fuzzy logic modelling technique and the fuzzy intersection, union and inclusion as fuzzy operators, we were able to specify the territories at biogeographical risk of dengue outbreaks in South America. RESULTS Our results indicate that the distribution of Ae. aegypti mostly encompasses the biogeographical framework of dengue in South America, which suggests that this species is the principal vector responsible for the geographical extent of dengue cases in the continent. Nevertheless, the intersection between the favorability for dengue cases and the union of the favorability for any of the vector species provided a comprehensive map of the biogeographical risk for dengue. CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy logic is an appropriate conceptual and operational tool to tackle the nuances of the vector-illness biogeographical interaction. The application of fuzzy logic may be useful in decision-making by the public health authorities to prevent, control and mitigate vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Romero
- Laboratorio de Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental del Territorio (LDSGAT), Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales (IECA), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Iguá 4225, 11400 Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Jesús Olivero
- Departamento de Biología Animal, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Bulevar Louis Pasteur, 31, 29010 Málaga, Spain
| | - Raimundo Real
- Departamento de Biología Animal, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Bulevar Louis Pasteur, 31, 29010 Málaga, Spain
| | - José Carlos Guerrero
- Laboratorio de Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental del Territorio (LDSGAT), Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales (IECA), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Iguá 4225, 11400 Montevideo, Uruguay
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27
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Messina JP, Brady OJ, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, Wint GRW, Ray SE, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Gilbert M, Velayudhan R, Jones P, Jaenisch T, Scott TW, Reiner RC, Hay SI. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. Nat Microbiol 2019; 4:1508-1515. [PMID: 31182801 PMCID: PMC6784886 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 548] [Impact Index Per Article: 109.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2018] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane P Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- School of Interdisciplinary Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nick Golding
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - G R William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, c/o Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sarah E Ray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Freya M Shearer
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kimberly Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lucas Earl
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Laurie B Marczak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shreya Shirude
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nicole Davis Weaver
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Peter Jones
- Waen Associates Ltd, Y Waen, Islaw'r Dref, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, UK
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Thomas W Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Spatiotemporal Transmission Patterns and Determinants of Dengue Fever: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16142486. [PMID: 31336865 PMCID: PMC6678723 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16142486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most common vector-borne diseases in the world and is mainly affected by the interaction of meteorological, human and land-use factors. This study aims to identify the impact of meteorological, human and land-use factors on dengue fever cases, involving the interplay between multiple factors. The analyses identified the statistically significant determinants affecting the transmission of dengue fever, employing cross-correlation analysis and the geo-detector model. This study was conducted in Guangzhou, China, using the data of confirmed cases of dengue fever, daily meteorological records, population density distribution and land-use distribution. The findings highlighted that the dengue fever hotspots were mainly distributed in the old city center of Guangzhou and were significantly shaped by meteorological, land-use and human factors. Meteorological factors including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity were correlated with the transmission of dengue fever. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity presented a statistically significant positive correlation with dengue fever cases, while atmospheric pressure presented statistically significant negative correlation. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity have lag effects on the transmission of dengue fever. The population, community age, subway network density, road network density and ponds presented a statistically significant positive correlation with the number of dengue fever cases, and the interaction among land-use and human factors could enhance dengue fever transmission. The ponds were the most important interaction factors, which might strengthen the influence of other factors on dengue fever transmission. Our findings have implications for pre-emptive dengue fever control.
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29
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Ammar SE, Mclntyre M, Swan T, Kasper J, Derraik JGB, Baker MG, Hales S. Intercepted Mosquitoes at New Zealand's Ports of Entry, 2001 to 2018: Current Status and Future Concerns. Trop Med Infect Dis 2019; 4:E101. [PMID: 31284464 PMCID: PMC6789606 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed4030101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/02/2019] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Mosquito vectors are extending their range via international travel and trade. Climate change makes New Zealand an increasingly suitable environment for less tropically adapted exotic mosquito vectors to become established. This shift will add a multiplier effect to existing risks of both the establishment of new species and of resident exotic species extending into new areas. We describe trends in the border interceptions of exotic mosquitoes and evaluate the role of imported goods as a pathway for these introductions. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the two most commonly intercepted species, were only intercepted in Auckland. Used tyres and machinery were the main mode of entry for both species. The majority of Ae. albopictus were transported as larvae by sea, while most Ae. aegypti were transported as adults by air. Continuing introductions of these mosquitoes, mainly arriving via Japan or Australia, increase the risk of the local transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in New Zealand in general and in the Auckland region in particular. These findings reinforce the need for a high performing and adequately resourced national biosecurity system, particularly port surveillance and inspection. Recommended biosecurity improvements are described.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherif E Ammar
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand.
| | - Mary Mclntyre
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
| | - Tom Swan
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Queensland 4814, Australia
| | - Julia Kasper
- Museum of New Zealand, Te Papa Tongarewa, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
| | - José G B Derraik
- Liggins Institute, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Michael G Baker
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
| | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
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Levy K, Smith SM, Carlton EJ. Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions. Curr Environ Health Rep 2019; 5:272-282. [PMID: 29721700 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-018-0199-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. RECENT FINDINGS A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen Levy
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA.
| | - Shanon M Smith
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Elizabeth J Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 E 17th Place B119, Aurora, CO, 80045, USA
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Saha P, Chatterjee M, Ballav S, Chowdhury A, Basu N, Maji AK. Prevalence of kdr mutations and insecticide susceptibility among natural population of Aedes aegypti in West Bengal. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0215541. [PMID: 30986273 PMCID: PMC6464230 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2018] [Accepted: 04/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are the major vectors of arboviral diseases. As effective vaccines are not available for most of the arboviral diseases, vector control by using insecticides play the key role to reduce the disease transmission. The emergence and spread of resistance to different classes of insecticides by the vectors is a major obstacle to control the disease transmission. Information about vector susceptibility to different insecticides and their mechanisms are very important for formulating proper vector control measures. The present study was designed to assess the susceptibility of Ae. aegypti against three different classes of adulticides, one larvicidal agent available and polymorphisms in the voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) gene related to insecticide resistance. METHODS Immature stages of Ae. aegypti were collected from three dengue endemic municipal areas of West Bengal and reared in the laboratory. Larvae and adults (F1 progeny) were used for insecticide bioassay as per WHO protocols. Knock down resistance gene (kdr) mutations were assessed by direct sequencing of PCR products. RESULTS The Ae. aegypti population was found to be susceptible to type II pyrethroids and malathion but highly resistant to DDT. A high rate of polymorphisms in the VGSC gene was observed among the collected mosquitoes. A double mutant V1016G + F1534C was found to be associated with DDT resistance but neither V1016G nor F1534C alone showed the same association. Association between the kdr mutations and the susceptibility status of pyrethroids could not be established due to very small sample size. A low to moderate level of resistance was noticed against temephos among the larval population based on WHO criteria. CONCLUSION The replacement of DDT by type II pyrethroids for the management of dengue vectors is an appropriate decision taken by the national program which is supported by the findings of a higher level of resistance to DDT. Persistence of polymorphisms in the VGSC gene might be an indication of emergence of resistance against pyrethroid insecticides that should be monitored at a regular interval. Attempts should be made to determine the effectiveness of other larvicides for replacement of temephos if needed in future. Along with the chemical insecticides different biological vector control methods as well as biopesticides should also be used in vector control programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pabitra Saha
- Department of Microbiology, Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
- Department of Zoology, A. P. C. Roy Govt. College, Himachal Bihar, Matigara, Siliguri, West Bengal, India
| | - Moytrey Chatterjee
- Department of Microbiology, Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
| | - Sudeep Ballav
- Department of Microbiology, Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
| | - Akash Chowdhury
- Department of Zoology, A. P. C. Roy Govt. College, Himachal Bihar, Matigara, Siliguri, West Bengal, India
| | - Nandita Basu
- Department of Pathology, Jagannath Gupta Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital, Budge Budge, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
| | - Ardhendu Kumar Maji
- Department of Microbiology, Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
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Ryan SJ, Carlson CJ, Mordecai EA, Johnson LR. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007213. [PMID: 30921321 PMCID: PMC6438455 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 376] [Impact Index Per Article: 75.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadie J. Ryan
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Colin J. Carlson
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
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Caminade C, McIntyre KM, Jones AE. Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2019; 1436:157-173. [PMID: 30120891 PMCID: PMC6378404 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 47.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 07/12/2018] [Accepted: 07/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cyril Caminade
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - K. Marie McIntyre
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - Anne E. Jones
- Department of Mathematical SciencesUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
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Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9110453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Aedes albopictus has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of Ae. albopictus was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic Aedes albopictus model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001–2030 and 2071–2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on Ae. albopictus in Montenegro.
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Pham DN, Aziz T, Kohan A, Nellis S, Jamil JBA, Khoo JJ, Lukose D, AbuBakar S, Sattar A, Ong HH. How to Efficiently Predict Dengue Incidence in Kuala Lumpur. 2018 FOURTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCES IN COMPUTING, COMMUNICATION & AUTOMATION (ICACCA) 2018. [DOI: 10.1109/icaccaf.2018.8776790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
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Carbajo AE, Cardo MV, Guimarey PC, Lizuain AA, Buyayisqui MP, Varela T, Utgés ME, Giovacchini CM, Santini MS. Is autumn the key for dengue epidemics in non endemic regions? The case of Argentina. PeerJ 2018; 6:e5196. [PMID: 30038860 PMCID: PMC6054063 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.5196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2018] [Accepted: 06/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is a major and rapidly increasing public health problem. In Argentina, the southern extreme of its distribution in the Americas, epidemic transmission takes place during the warm season. Since its re-emergence in 1998 two major outbreaks have occurred, the biggest during 2016. To identify the environmental factors that trigger epidemic events, we analyzed the occurrence and magnitude of dengue outbreaks in time and space at different scales in association with climatic, geographic and demographic variables and number of cases in endemic neighboring countries. Methods Information on dengue cases was obtained from dengue notifications reported in the National Health Surveillance System. The resulting database was analyzed by Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) under three methodological approaches to: identify in which years the most important outbreaks occurred in association with environmental variables and propose a risk estimation for future epidemics (temporal approach); characterize which variables explain the occurrence of local outbreaks through time (spatio-temporal approach); and select the environmental drivers of the geographical distribution of dengue positive districts during 2016 (spatial approach). Results Within the temporal approach, the number of dengue cases country-wide between 2009 and 2016 was positively associated with the number of dengue cases in bordering endemic countries and negatively with the days necessary for transmission (DNT) during the previous autumn in the central region of the country. Annual epidemic intensity in the period between 1999–2016 was associated with DNT during previous autumn and winter. Regarding the spatio-temporal approach, dengue cases within a district were also associated with mild conditions in the previous autumn along with the number of dengue cases in neighboring countries. As for the spatial approach, the best model for the occurrence of two or more dengue cases per district included autumn minimum temperature and human population as fixed factors, and the province as a grouping variable. Explanatory power of all models was high, in the range 57–95%. Discussion Given the epidemic nature of dengue in Argentina, virus pressure from endemic neighboring countries along with climatic conditions are crucial to explain disease dynamics. In the three methodological approaches, temperature conditions during autumn were best associated with dengue patterns. We propose that mild autumns represent an advantage for mosquito vector populations and that, in temperate regions, this advantage manifests as a larger egg bank from which the adult population will re-emerge in spring. This may constitute a valuable anticipating tool for high transmission risk events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anibal E Carbajo
- Universidad Nacional de San Martin, Instituto de Investigacion e Ingenieria Ambiental, Laboratorio de Ecologia de Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores, General San Martin, Buenos Aires, Argentina.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, Argentina
| | - Maria V Cardo
- Universidad Nacional de San Martin, Instituto de Investigacion e Ingenieria Ambiental, Laboratorio de Ecologia de Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores, General San Martin, Buenos Aires, Argentina.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, Argentina
| | - Pilar C Guimarey
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias CeNDIE - ANLIS, Ministerio de Salud de la Nacion, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Arturo A Lizuain
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias CeNDIE - ANLIS, Ministerio de Salud de la Nacion, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Maria P Buyayisqui
- Área de Vigilancia de la Salud, Dirección de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Teresa Varela
- Área de Vigilancia de la Salud, Dirección de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Maria E Utgés
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias CeNDIE - ANLIS, Ministerio de Salud de la Nacion, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Carlos M Giovacchini
- Área de Vigilancia de la Salud, Dirección de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Maria S Santini
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias CeNDIE - ANLIS, Ministerio de Salud de la Nacion, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Hundessa S, Williams G, Li S, Liu DL, Cao W, Ren H, Guo J, Gasparrini A, Ebi K, Zhang W, Guo Y. Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 627:1285-1293. [PMID: 30283159 PMCID: PMC6166864 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China. OBJECTIVE Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios. METHODS National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). RESULTS Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparum is projected to increase more than P. vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Hundessa
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane 4006, Australia
| | - Gail Williams
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane 4006, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - De Li Liu
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, New South Wales 2650, Wagga Wagga, Australia
| | - Wei Cao
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hongyan Ren
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jinpeng Guo
- Institute for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Social & Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1H 9SH London, UK
| | - Kristie Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Institute for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
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Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:6243-6248. [PMID: 29844166 PMCID: PMC6004471 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1718945115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
This study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue transmission and that significant impacts could be avoided by constraining global warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Our work could be a starting point for future risk assessments incorporating other important drivers of disease such as urbanization and international traveling. The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.
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Wen TH, Hsu CS, Hu MC. Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics. Int J Health Geogr 2018; 17:9. [PMID: 29724243 PMCID: PMC5934834 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-018-0131-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2017] [Accepted: 04/26/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. Methods We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. Results The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial–temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a “bridge” for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0131-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tzai-Hung Wen
- Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei City, 10617, Taiwan.
| | - Ching-Shun Hsu
- Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei City, 10617, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Che Hu
- Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei City, 10617, Taiwan
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Borlase A, Webster JP, Rudge JW. Opportunities and challenges for modelling epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics in a multihost, multiparasite system: Zoonotic hybrid schistosomiasis in West Africa. Evol Appl 2018; 11:501-515. [PMID: 29636802 PMCID: PMC5891036 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2017] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Multihost multiparasite systems are evolutionarily and ecologically dynamic, which presents substantial trans-disciplinary challenges for elucidating their epidemiology and designing appropriate control. Evidence for hybridizations and introgressions between parasite species is gathering, in part in line with improvements in molecular diagnostics and genome sequencing. One major system where this is becoming apparent is within the Genus Schistosoma, where schistosomiasis represents a disease of considerable medical and veterinary importance, the greatest burden of which occurs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interspecific hybridizations and introgressions bring an increased level of complexity over and above that already inherent within multihost, multiparasite systems, also representing an additional source of genetic variation that can drive evolution. This has the potential for profound implications for the control of parasitic diseases, including, but not exclusive to, widening host range, increased transmission potential and altered responses to drug therapy. Here, we present the challenging case example of haematobium group Schistosoma spp. hybrids in West Africa, a system involving multiple interacting parasites and multiple definitive hosts, in a region where zoonotic reservoirs of schistosomiasis were not previously considered to be of importance. We consider how existing mathematical model frameworks for schistosome transmission could be expanded and adapted to zoonotic hybrid systems, exploring how such model frameworks can utilize molecular and epidemiological data, as well as the complexities and challenges this presents. We also highlight the opportunities and value such mathematical models could bring to this and a range of similar multihost, multi and cross-hybridizing parasites systems in our changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Borlase
- Department of Pathobiology and Population SciencesCentre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic DiseasesRoyal Veterinary CollegeUniversity of LondonLondonUK
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease ResearchSchool of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - Joanne P. Webster
- Department of Pathobiology and Population SciencesCentre for Emerging, Endemic and Exotic DiseasesRoyal Veterinary CollegeUniversity of LondonLondonUK
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease ResearchSchool of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - James W. Rudge
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease ResearchSchool of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK
- Communicable Diseases Policy Research GroupLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Faculty of Public HealthMahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe. Sci Rep 2018; 8:4629. [PMID: 29545610 PMCID: PMC5854675 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2017] [Accepted: 02/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
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Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15020187. [PMID: 29360797 PMCID: PMC5857046 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15020187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 01/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.
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Tsai PJ, Lin TH, Teng HJ, Yeh HC. Critical low temperature for the survival of Aedes aegypti in Taiwan. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:22. [PMID: 29310716 PMCID: PMC5759216 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2606-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2017] [Accepted: 12/25/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Taiwan is geographically located in a region that spans both tropical and subtropical climates (22–25°N and 120–122°E). The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control have found that the ecological habitat of Aedes aegypti appears only south of 23.5°N. Low temperatures may contribute to this particular habitat distribution of Ae. aegypti under the influence of the East Asian winter monsoon. However, the threshold condition related to critically low temperatures remains unclear because of the lack of large-scale spatial studies. This topic warrants further study, particularly through national entomological surveillance and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data. Methods We hypothesized that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is highly correlated with the threshold nighttime LST and that a critical low LST limits the survival of Ae. aegypti. A mosquito dataset collected from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control was utilized in conjunction with image data obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) during 2009–2011. Spatial interpolation and phi coefficient methods were used to analyze the correlation between the distributions of immature forms of Ae. aegypti and threshold LST, which was predicted from MODIS calculations for 348 townships in Taiwan. Results According to the evaluation of the correlation between estimated nighttime temperatures and the occurrence of Ae. aegypti, winter had the highest peak phi coefficient, and the corresponding estimated threshold temperatures ranged from 13.7 to 14 °C in the ordinary kriging model, which was the optimal interpolation model in terms of the root mean square error. The mean threshold temperature was determined to be 13.8 °C, which is a critical temperature to limit the occurrence of Ae. aegypti. Conclusions An LST of 13.8 °C was found to be the critical temperature for Ae. aegypti larvae, which results in the near disappearance of Ae. aegypti during winter in the subtropical regions of Taiwan under the influence of the prevailing East Asian winter monsoon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pui-Jen Tsai
- Center for General Education, Aletheia University, New Taipei City, 25103, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Tang-Huang Lin
- Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Jhongli, 32001, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Hwa-Jen Teng
- Center for Diagnostics and Vaccine Development, Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Hsi-Chyi Yeh
- Center for General Education, Aletheia University, New Taipei City, 25103, Taiwan, Republic of China.
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Bardosh KL, Ryan SJ, Ebi K, Welburn S, Singer B. Addressing vulnerability, building resilience: community-based adaptation to vector-borne diseases in the context of global change. Infect Dis Poverty 2017; 6:166. [PMID: 29228986 PMCID: PMC5725972 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-017-0375-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2017] [Accepted: 11/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The threat of a rapidly changing planet – of coupled social, environmental and climatic change – pose new conceptual and practical challenges in responding to vector-borne diseases. These include non-linear and uncertain spatial-temporal change dynamics associated with climate, animals, land, water, food, settlement, conflict, ecology and human socio-cultural, economic and political-institutional systems. To date, research efforts have been dominated by disease modeling, which has provided limited practical advice to policymakers and practitioners in developing policies and programmes on the ground. Main body In this paper, we provide an alternative biosocial perspective grounded in social science insights, drawing upon concepts of vulnerability, resilience, participation and community-based adaptation. Our analysis was informed by a realist review (provided in the Additional file 2) focused on seven major climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases: malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue, leishmaniasis, sleeping sickness, chagas disease, and rift valley fever. Here, we situate our analysis of existing community-based interventions within the context of global change processes and the wider social science literature. We identify and discuss best practices and conceptual principles that should guide future community-based efforts to mitigate human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. We argue that more focused attention and investments are needed in meaningful public participation, appropriate technologies, the strengthening of health systems, sustainable development, wider institutional changes and attention to the social determinants of health, including the drivers of co-infection. Conclusion In order to respond effectively to uncertain future scenarios for vector-borne disease in a changing world, more attention needs to be given to building resilient and equitable systems in the present. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1186/s40249-017-0375-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin Louis Bardosh
- Department of Anthropology, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA. .,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA.
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA.,Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
| | - Kris Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Susan Welburn
- Centre of Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Burton Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
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Purse BV, Masante D, Golding N, Pigott D, Day JC, Ibañez-Bernal S, Kolb M, Jones L. How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0183583. [PMID: 29020041 PMCID: PMC5636069 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0183583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2017] [Accepted: 08/18/2017] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethan V. Purse
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
| | - Dario Masante
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas Golding
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - John C. Day
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
| | - Sergio Ibañez-Bernal
- Instituto de Ecología, A.C. (INECOL), Red Ambiente y Sustentabilidad, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Melanie Kolb
- Institute of Geography, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Laurence Jones
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, United Kingdom
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Akter R, Naish S, Hu W, Tong S. Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0185551. [PMID: 28968420 PMCID: PMC5624700 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2017] [Accepted: 09/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008–2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008–2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should be in place to reduce the chance of mosquitoes and dengue cases being imported into all over Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rokeya Akter
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Suchithra Naish
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
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SOHAIL AYESHA, LI ZHIWU, IFTIKHAR MEHWISH, MOHAMED MABRUKA, BÉG OANWAR. STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF A DETERMINISTIC AND SEASONALLY-FORCED SEI MODEL FOR IMPROVED DISEASE SPREAD SIMULATION. J MECH MED BIOL 2017. [DOI: 10.1142/s0219519417500671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The geographic distribution of different viruses has developed widely, giving rise to an escalating number of cases during the past two decades. The deterministic Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious (SEI) models can demonstrate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the diseases and have been used extensively in modern mathematical and mechano-biological simulations. This article presents a functional technique to model the stochastic effects and seasonal forcing in a reliable manner by satisfying the Lipschitz criteria. We have emphasized that the graphical portrayal can prove to be a powerful tool to demonstrate the stability analysis of the deterministic as well as the stochastic modeling. Emphasis is made on the dynamical effects of the force of infection. Such analysis based on the parametric sweep can prove to be helpful in predicting the disease spread in urban as well as rural areas and should be of interest to mathematical biosciences researchers.
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Affiliation(s)
- AYESHA SOHAIL
- Department of Mathematics, Comsats Institute of Information Technology, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
| | - ZHI WU LI
- Institute of Systems Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa, Macau
- Department of Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - MEHWISH IFTIKHAR
- Department of Mathematics, Comsats Institute of Information Technology, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
| | - MABRUKA MOHAMED
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hicks Building, University of Sheffeld, Sheffeld S3 7RH, UK
| | - O. ANWAR BÉG
- Fluid Mechanics, Bio-Propulsion and Nanosystems, Aeronautical and Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Salford, Newton Building, UG17, Manchester, M54WT, UK
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Akter R, Hu W, Naish S, Banu S, Tong S. Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence. Trop Med Int Health 2017; 22:656-669. [PMID: 28319296 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.12868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. METHODS Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. RESULTS Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. CONCLUSIONS Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rokeya Akter
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Suchithra Naish
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Shahera Banu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
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An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus. Acta Trop 2017; 168:80-90. [PMID: 28111132 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2016] [Revised: 12/23/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model - correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository). The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones). The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project). In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.
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