Application of an HIV Prevention Cascade to Identify Gaps in Increasing Coverage of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Services in 42 Rural Zambian Communities

Applying the HIV Prevention Cascade to an Evaluation of a Large-Scale Combination HIV Prevention Programme for Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa are at a three times higher risk of acquiring HIV than their male counterparts. The HIV prevention cascade is a tool which can be used to measure coverage of HIV prevention services, although there is limited empirical evidence to demonstrate its application in low-resourced settings. The unifying framework is a conceptualisation of the HIV prevention cascade which theorises that both motivation and access are required for an individual to effectively use an HIV prevention method. We applied this framework to data from a random sample of 127,951 beneficiaries of a combination HIV prevention programme for AGYW aged 15-24 in South Africa to measure the steps to, and identify key barriers to, effective use of male condoms and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this vulnerable population. Barriers to each step were analysed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Among self-reported HIV-negative AGYW who had sex in the past 6 months, effective use of condoms (15.2%), access to PrEP (39.1%) and use of PrEP (3.8%) were low. AGYW were: less likely to be motivated to use condoms if they believed that they had a faithful partner (aOR 0.44, 95% CI 0.22-0.90) or disliked condoms (aOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.57), less likely to access condoms if the place where AGYW accessed them was far away (aOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.64), more likely to effectively use condoms if they received counselling on how to use them (aOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.05-4.76), less likely to be motivated to use PrEP if they did not believe PrEP was efficacious (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.72), more likely to be motivated if they felt confident that they could use PrEP, and more likely to have access to PrEP if they had ever been offered PrEP (aOR 2.94, 95% CI 1.19-7.22). This combination HIV prevention programme and similar programmes should focus on risk-reduction counselling interventions for AGYW and their male partners to improve effective use of condoms and ensure easy access to condoms and PrEP by making them available in youth-friendly spaces. Our findings demonstrate that the application of HIV prevention cascades can inform AGYW HIV prevention programming in low-resourced settings.

Estimates of the prevalence of male circumcision in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010-2023-A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision (MC) is a key part of the package of interventions to prevent HIV, the biggest health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the male circumcision prevalence and to evaluate the progress towards meeting WHO targets in sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2010-2023.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published during the period 2010-2023. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane CENTRAL, Google Scholar, WHO and the Demographic and Health Survey for reports on MC prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. MC prevalence was synthesized using inverse-variance heterogeneity models, heterogeneity using I2 statistics and publication bias using funnel plots.

RESULTS

A total of 53 studies were included. The overall prevalence during the study period was 45.9% (95% CI 32.3-59.8), with a higher MC prevalence in Eastern (69.9%, 95%CI 49.9-86.8) compared to Southern African (33.3%, 95%CI 21.7-46.2). The overall prevalence was higher in urban (45.3%, 95%CI 27.7-63.4) compared to rural settings (42.6%, 95% 26.5-59.5). Male circumcision prevalence increased from 40.2% (95% CI 25.0-56.3) during 2010-2015 to 56.2% (95% CI 31.5-79.5) during 2016-2023. Three countries exceeded 80% MC coverage, namely, Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the current MC prevalence is below 50%, with higher prevalence in Eastern African countries and substantially lower prevalence in Southern Africa. Most of the priority countries need to do more to scale up medical male circumcision programs.

HIV prevention for the next decade: Appropriate, person-centred, prioritised, effective, combination prevention

UNAIDS and a broad range of partners have collaborated to establish a new set of HIV prevention targets to be achieved by 2025 as an intermediate step towards the sustainable development target for 2030.The number of new HIV infections in the world continues to decline, in part due to the extraordinary expansion of effective HIV treatment. However, the decline is geographically heterogeneous, with some regions reporting a rise in incidence. The incidence target that was agreed for 2020 has been missed.A range of exciting new HIV prevention technologies have become available or are in the pipeline but will only have an impact if they are accessible and affordable and delivered within systems that take full account of the social and political context in which most infections occur. Most new infections occur in populations that are marginalised or discriminated against due to structural, legal, and cultural barriers.The new targets imply a new approach to HIV prevention that emphasises appropriate, person-centred, prioritised, effective, combination HIV prevention within a framework that reduces existing barriers to services and acknowledges heterogeneity, autonomy, and choice.These targets have consequences for people working in HIV programmes both for delivery and for monitoring and evaluation, for health planners setting local and national priorities, and for funders both domestic and global. Most importantly, they have consequences for people who are at risk of HIV exposure and infection.Achieving these targets will have a huge impact on the future of the HIV epidemic and put us back on track towards ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

Access to HIV prevention services in East African cross-border areas: a 2016-2017 cross-sectional bio-behavioural study

INTRODUCTION

East African cross-border areas are visited by mobile and vulnerable populations, such as men, female sex workers, men who have sex with men, truck drivers, fisher folks and young women. These groups may not benefit from traditional HIV prevention interventions available at the health facilities where they live, but may benefit from services offered at public venues identified as places where people meet new sexual partners (e.g. bars, nightclubs, transportation hubs and guest houses). The goal of this analysis was to estimate availability, access and uptake of prevention services by populations who visit these venues.

METHODS

We collected cross-sectional data using the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts sampling method at cross-border locations near or along the land and lake borders of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda from June 2016-February 2017. This bio-behavioural survey captured information from a probability sample of 11,428 individuals at 833 venues across all areas. Data were weighted using survey sampling weights and analysed using methods to account for the complex sampling design.

RESULTS

Among the 85.6% of persons who had access to condoms, 60.5% did not use a condom at their last anal or vaginal sexual encounter. Venues visited by high percentages of persons living with HIV were not more likely than other venues to offer condoms. In 12 of the 22 cross-border areas, male or female condoms were available at less than 33% of the venues visited by persons having difficulty accessing condoms. In 17 of the 22 cross-border areas, education outreach visits in the preceding six months occurred at less than 50% of the venues where participants had low effective use of condoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals visiting venues in cross-border areas report poor access to and low effective use of condoms and other prevention services. Availability of HIV prevention services differed by venue and population type and cross-border area, suggesting opportunities for more granular targeting of HIV prevention interventions and transnational coordination of HIV programming.

Using a HIV prevention cascade for identifying missed opportunities in PrEP delivery in Kenya: results from a programmatic surveillance study

INTRODUCTION

HIV prevention cascades have been systematically evaluated in high-income countries, but steps in the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) service delivery cascade have not been systematically quantified in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed missed opportunities in the PrEP cascade in a large-scale project serving female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in Kenya.

METHODS

Programmatic surveillance was conducted using routine programme data from 89 project-supported sites from February 2017 to December 2019, and complemented by qualitative data. Healthcare providers used nationally approved tools to document service statistics. The analyses examined proportions of people moving onto the next step in the PrEP continuum, and identified missed opportunities. Missed opportunities were defined as implementation gaps exemplified by the proportion of individuals who could have potentially accessed each step of the PrEP cascade and did not. We also assessed trends in the cascade indicators at monthly intervals. Qualitative data were collected through 28 focus group discussions with 241 FSW, MSM, AGYW and healthcare providers, and analysed thematically to identify reasons underpinning the missed opportunities.

RESULTS

During the study period, 299,798 individuals tested HIV negative (211,927 FSW, 47,533 MSM and 40,338 AGYW). Missed opportunities in screening for PrEP eligibility was 58% for FSW, 45% for MSM and 78% for AGYW. Of those screened, 28% FSW, 25% MSM and 65% AGYW were ineligible. Missed opportunities for PrEP initiation were lower among AGYW (8%) compared to FSW (72%) and MSM (75%). Continuation rates were low across all populations at Month-1 (ranging from 29% to 32%) and Month-3 (6% to 8%). Improvements in average annual Month-1 (from 26% to 41%) and Month-3 (from 4% to 15%) continuation rates were observed between 2017 and 2019. While initiation rates were better among younger FSW, MSM and AGYW (<30 years), the reverse was true for continuation.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of a PrEP cascade framework facilitated this large-scale oral PrEP programme to conduct granular programmatic analysis, detecting "leaks" in the cascade. These informed programme adjustments to mitigate identified gaps resulting in improvement of selected programmatic outcomes. PrEP programmes are encouraged to introduce the cascade analysis framework into new and existing programming to optimize HIV prevention outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of couples' voluntary HIV counselling and testing in six African countries: a modelling study guided by an HIV prevention cascade framework

INTRODUCTION

Couples' voluntary HIV counselling and testing (CVCT) is a high-impact HIV prevention intervention in Rwanda and Zambia. Our objective was to model the cost-per-HIV infection averted by CVCT in six African countries guided by an HIV prevention cascade framework. The HIV prevention cascade as yet to be applied to evaluating CVCT effectiveness or cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We defined a priority population for CVCT in Africa as heterosexual adults in stable couples. Based on our previous experience nationalizing CVCT in Rwanda and scaling-up CVCT in 73 clinics in Zambia, we estimated HIV prevention cascade domains of motivation for use, access and effectiveness of CVCT as model parameters. Costs-per-couple tested were also estimated based on our previous studies. We used these parameters as well as country-specific inputs to model the impact of CVCT over a five-year time horizon in a previously developed and tested deterministic compartmental model. We consider six countries across Africa with varied HIV epidemics (South Africa, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone). Outcomes of interest were the proportion of HIV infections averted by CVCT, nationwide CVCT implementation costs and costs-per-HIV infection averted by CVCT. We applied 3%/year discounting to costs and outcomes. Univariate and Monte Carlo multivariate sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

We estimated that CVCT could avert between 54% (Sierra Leone) and 62% (South Africa) of adult HIV infections. Average costs-per-HIV infection averted were lowest in Zimbabwe ($550) and highest in South Africa ($1272). Nationwide implementations would cost between 7% (Kenya) and 21% (Ivory Coast) of a country's President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) budget over five years. In sensitivity analyses, model outputs were most sensitive to estimates of cost-per-couple tested; the proportion of adults in heterosexual couples and HIV prevention cascade domains of CVCT motivation and access.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model indicates that nationalized CVCT could prevent over half of adult HIV infections for 7% to 21% of the modelled countries' five-year PEPFAR budgets. While other studies have indicated that CVCT motivation is high given locally relevant promotional and educational efforts, without required indicators, targets and dedicated budgets, access remains low.

Cascade Analysis: An Adaptable Implementation Strategy Across HIV and Non-HIV Delivery Platforms

BACKGROUND

Cascades have been used to characterize sequential steps within a complex health system and are used in diverse disease areas and across prevention, testing, and treatment. Routine data have great potential to inform prioritization within a system, but are often inaccessible to frontline health care workers (HCWs) who may have the greatest opportunity to innovate health system improvement.

METHODS

The cascade analysis tool (CAT) is an Excel-based, simple simulation model with an optimization function. It identifies the step within a cascade that could most improve the system. The original CAT was developed for HIV treatment and the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

RESULTS

CAT has been adapted 7 times: to a mobile application for prevention of mother-to-child transmission; for hypertension screening and management and for mental health outpatient services in Mozambique; for pediatric and adolescent HIV testing and treatment, HIV testing in family planning, and cervical cancer screening and treatment in Kenya; and for naloxone distribution and opioid overdose reversal in the United States. The main domains of adaptation have been technical-estimating denominators and structuring steps to be binary sequential steps-as well as logistical-identifying acceptable approaches for data abstraction and aggregation, and not overburdening HCW.

DISCUSSION

CAT allows for prompt feedback to HCWs, increases HCW autonomy, and allows managers to allocate resources and time in an equitable manner. CAT is an effective, feasible, and acceptable implementation strategy to prioritize areas most requiring improvement within complex health systems, although adaptations are being currently evaluated.