Being born in the aftermath of World War II increases the risk for health deficit accumulation in older age: results from the KORA-Age study

Age, period, cohort effects in trends of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults

Objectives

To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends of depression; and to examine the influence of these three temporal effects on residential disparities in depression.

Methods

Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during 2011 to 2020, involving 77,703 respondents aged 45 years old and above. The measurement of depressive symptoms was the score of 10-question version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10). The hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to examine trends in depressive symptoms related to age, period and cohort.

Results

CES-D scores increased with age and slightly decreased at older age. The cohort trends mostly increased except for a downward trend among those born in 1950s. As for the period effect, CES-D scores decreased gradually from 2011 to 2013 followed by a upward trend. Rural residents were associated with higher level of depression than those live in urban area. These residence gaps in depression enlarged before the age of 80, and then narrowed. The urban-rural disparities in CES-D scores gradually diminished across cohorts, while the corresponding period-based change in urban-rural gaps was not significant.

Conclusion

When age, period, cohort factors are considered, the age effects on depression dominated, and the period and cohort variations were relatively small. The residence disparities in depression reduced with successive cohorts, more attention should be paid to the worsening depression condition of younger cohorts in urban areas.

Assessing needs-based supply of physicians: a criteria-led methodological review of international studies in high-resource settings

BACKGROUND

Many health systems embrace the normative principle that the supply of health services ought to be based on the need for healthcare. However, a theoretically grounded framework to operationalize needs-based supply of healthcare remains elusive. The aim of this paper is to critically assess current methodologies that quantify needs-based supply of physicians and identify potential gaps in approaches for physician planning. To this end, we propose a set of criteria for consideration when estimating needs-based supply.

METHODS

We conducted searches in three electronic bibliographic databases until March 2020 supplemented by targeted manual searches on national and international websites to identify studies in high-resource settings that quantify needs-based supply of physicians. Studies that exclusively focused on forecasting methods of physician supply, on inpatient care or on healthcare professionals other than physicians were excluded. Additionally, records that were not available in English or German were excluded to avoid translation errors. The results were synthesized using a framework of study characteristics in addition to the proposed criteria for estimating needs-based physician supply.

RESULTS

18 quantitative studies estimating population need for physicians were assessed against our criteria. No study met all criteria. Only six studies sought to examine the conceptual dependency between need, utilization and supply. Apart from extrapolations, simulation models were applied most frequently to estimate needs-based supply. 12 studies referred to the translation of need for services with respect to a physician's productivity, while the rest adapted existing population-provider-ratios. Prospective models for estimating future care needs were largely based on demographic predictions rather than estimated trends in morbidity and new forms of care delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

The methodological review shows distinct heterogeneity in the conceptual frameworks, validity of data basis and modeling approaches of current studies in high-resource settings on needs-based supply of physicians. To support future estimates of needs-based supply, this review provides a workable framework for policymakers in charge of health workforce capacity planning.

Age-period-cohort analysis of depression trends: are depressive symptoms increasing across generations in Germany?

Several studies have examined trends in depression, but only few have explicitly considered possible generational differences. I examined changes in the burden of depressive symptoms between 2002 and 2017 according to age, time period and birth cohort in Germany. I used population-based data drawn from the German Aging Survey (N = 33,723, 54% female, ages 40 +) from 2002, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017. Depressive symptoms were measured via the CES-D 15. Hierarchical age-period-cohort models were used to examine trends in depression. I found that depressive symptoms changed across age, time period and birth cohorts. While there was a general decrease across time periods, strong evidence for a U-shaped cohort effect was also found: Younger generations, beginning with cohorts born after the World War II, increasingly report more depressive symptoms than older generations. This U-shaped cohort trend appeared most pronounced for the somatic symptoms subscale. Contrarily, only minimal cohort differences were found regarding the positive affect subscale. Therefore, depressive symptoms, and especially somatic symptoms, seem to increase in more recent birth cohorts in Germany, who might thus be at risk to experience more mental health problems in the future. Potential reasons for these trends and the generalizability of the results to other countries should be investigated by future studies.

Trends in Activity Limitations From an International Perspective: Differential Changes Between Age Groups Across 30 Countries

Objectives: Examine trends in limitations among young (15–39), middle-aged (40–64) and older age-groups (>=65) and their socioeconomic differences. Methods: Population-based European Social Survey data ( N = 396,853) were used, covering 30 mostly European countries and spanning the time-period 2002–2018. Limitations were measured using a global activity limitations indicator. Results: Age-differential trends in limitations were found. Activity limitations generally decreased in older adults, whereas trends varied among younger and middle-aged participants, with decreasing limitations in some countries but increasing limitations in others. These age-differential trends were replicated across limitation severity and socioeconomic groups; however, stronger limitation increases occurred regarding less-severe limitations. Discussion: Functional health has improved in older adults. Contrarily, the increasing limitations in younger and middle-aged individuals seem concerning, which were mostly observed in Western and Northern European countries. Given its public health importance, future studies should investigate the reasons for this declining functional health in the young and middle-aged.

Effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of frailty in Chinese older adults from 2002 to 2014

Background

Currently, longitudinal studies on frailty are in an early stage, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Only one study was conducted in Hong Kong to examine age-period-cohort effects on the prevalence of frailty among Chinese older adults.

Objectives

This study aims to shed light on the prevalence trajectory of frailty among older adults in mainland China through the APC model and to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence trajectory.

Methods

The sample for this study was older adults aged 65-109 years old from the 2002 to 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Frailty status was measured by Rockwood FI. An age-period-cohort model was used to describe the effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence trajectory of frailty.

Results

The prevalence of frailty among Chinese older adults changed significantly with age, period, and cohort. Furthermore, the effect of age was much stronger than the effect of period and cohort. The prevalence of frailty in the 101-103 and 104-106 age groups was 8.998 (95% CI 13.667-5.924) and 8.699 (95% CI 13.037-5.805) times higher than the in the 65-67 age group, respectively. The sensitivity analysis based on Fried's frailty phenotype showed similar results, confirming the robustness of our findings.

Conclusion

All of the age effect reflecting the individual aging process, period effect reflecting change in the social environment, and birth cohort effect reflecting different generations could influence the prevalence of frailty at the population level. In contrast, the age effect was the main effect.

Impact of prenatal and childhood adversity effects around World War II on multimorbidity: results from the KORA-Age study

Background

While risk factors for age-related diseases may increase multimorbidity (MM), early life deprivation may also accelerate the development of chronic diseases and MM.

Methods

This study explores the prevalence and pattern of MM in 65–71 year-old individuals born before, during, and after World War II in Southern Germany based on two large cross-sectional KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) -Age studies in 2008/9 and 2016. MM was defined as having at least two chronic diseases, and birth periods were classified into five phases: pre-war, early war, late war, famine, and after the famine period. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the effect of the birth phases on MM with adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors. Furthermore, we used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to investigate the co-occurrence of diseases.

Results

Participants born during the late war phase had the highest prevalence of MM (62.2%) and single chronic diseases compared to participants born during the other phases. Being born in the late war phase was significantly associated with a higher odds of MM (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.15–2.91) after adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. In women, the prevalence of joint, gastrointestinal, eye diseases, and anxiety was higher, while heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were more common in men. Moreover, three main chronic disease clusters responsible for the observed associations were identified as: joint and psychosomatic, cardiometabolic and, other internal organ diseases.

Conclusions

Our findings imply that adverse early-life exposure may increase the risk of MM in adults aged 65–71 years. Moreover, identified disease clusters are not coincidental and require more investigation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02793-2.

Associations between Early-Life Food Deprivation and Risk of Frailty of Middle-Age and Elderly People: Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

The association between childhood food deprivation (FD) and health in later life has been extensively studied; however, studies on the association between childhood food deprivation and frailty are scarce. This study assessed the associations between childhood FD and the risk of frailty at middle-age and old age.

METHODS

Three waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), including 11,615 individuals aged over 45 years, were used for this research. Frailty was operationalized according to the FRAIL scale as a sum of fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illness, and the loss of weight. Childhood FD experiences and levels were measured by self-reported FD and historical content. Logistic mixed-effects models and proportional odds ordered logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between childhood FD and frailty.

FINDINGS

Childhood FD increased the odds of frailty at old age (1.30, 95% CI: 1.26-1.36). Compared with subjects with mild FD, those with extreme FD experiences had increased risks of frailty (1.34, 95% CI: 1.26-1.43). Subjects exposed to hunger at different ages all had an increased risk of frailty, and subjects who had FD during ages 6-12 (1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.22) were more likely to have an increased risk of frailty than those who had experienced FD in younger ages. The interaction of experience of FD at ages 0-6 and the experience of FD at ages 6-12 is not statistically significant after adjusting all covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that childhood FD exerts long-lasting effects on frailty among older adults in China. The prevention of childhood FD may delay or even avert the emergence of frailty in people of middle-age and old age.

Trends in Physical and Cognitive Performance Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

With population aging, a key question is whether new cohorts of older people are in better health than previous ones. This study aimed to compare the physical and cognitive performance of community-dwelling older adults assessed at similar age in 2005, 2010, and 2015.

METHODS

This repeated cross-sectional analysis used data from the Lausanne cohort 65+, a three random sample population-based study. Performance of participants aged 66-71 years in 2005 (N = 1,309), 2010 (N = 1,253), and 2015 (N = 1,328) was compared using a battery of six physical and four cognitive tests. Analyses included tests for trend across samples and multivariable linear regression models.

RESULTS

Adjusted performance in all four timed physical tests (gait speed, Timed Up-and-Go, five times chair stand, and Moberg Picking-Up) improved across samples from 2005 to 2015, by +12.7% (95% confidence interval {CI} +10.5%; +14.9%) to +20.4% (95% CI +17.7%; +23.0%) in females, and by +10.6% (95% CI +8.7%; +12.4%) to +16.7% (95% CI +13.4%; +20.0%) in males. In contrast, grip strength and balance did not improve across samples. Adjusted cognitive performance showed no change in the Trail Making Test, but worsened significantly across samples for the Mini-Mental State Examination, verbal fluency, and the clock drawing test in both females (-1.9% [95% CI -2.7%; -1.1%] to -6.7% [95% CI -8.9%; -4.6%]) and males (-2.5% [95% CI -3.4%; -1.6%] to -8.0% [95% CI -11.1%; -4.9%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last decade, performance of adults aged 66-71 years improved significantly in timed physical tests but worsened in most cognitive measures among later-born samples.

Living longer but less healthy: The female disadvantage in health expectancy. Results from the KORA-Age study

OBJECTIVES

We explored the male-female health-survival paradox in the context of health expectancy (HE) at age 65 and thereafter, using three different morbidity measures and different severity cut-offs with and without adjustments for the share of nursing home residents.

METHODS

HE at ages 65, 70, 75, 80, and 85 was estimated with the Sullivan method, linking morbidity prevalence from the KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-Age study to 2016 Bavarian mortality data. Morbidity measures comprised deficit accumulation (Frailty Index, FI, cut-offs 0.08 and 0.25), disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index, HAQ-DI, cut-off >0) and participation (Global Activity Limitation Indicator, GALI, "limited" vs "not limited").

RESULTS

Morbidity data were available for 4083 participants (52.7% female). HE was lower in women than in men at all ages. Differences in morbidity prevalence, absolute HE, and health proportions of life expectancy (relative HE) increased with age for FI ≥ 0.25 and GALI, but not for HAQ-DI > 0 and FI > 0.08. Accounting for the share of nursing home residents resulted in a slight reduction of HE estimates but had no impact on estimated sex differences.

CONCLUSIONS

In HE at age 65 and thereafter, women's health disadvantage was larger than their life expectancy advantage over men.

Disability trends in Europe by age-period-cohort analysis: Increasing disability in younger cohorts

BACKGROUND

Several studies have examined trends in disability, but only few have explicitly considered possible age, time period and birth cohort differences simultaneously.

OBJECTIVE

We examined disability trends in Europe according to age, time period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

We used population-based data of Europeans (European Social Survey, N = 228159), aged 15-90 years, covering 15 countries (Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) and spanning a time period from 2002 to 2016.

RESULTS

We found that there were only small overall changes in disability over time periods. However, there were strong U-shaped birth cohort effects, such that younger cohorts born after 1960 experienced higher levels of disability. This U-shaped cohort trend appeared strongest for non-severe disability and was most pronounced in Germany.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, disability in Europe seemed to generally increase in more recent cohorts, who might thus be at risk to experience more morbidity in the future than previous generations. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms that contribute to these trends, the generalizability of the observed birth cohort effects, and the cross-national differences in time period trends.

Objectives, design and main findings until 2020 from the Rotterdam Study

The Rotterdam Study is an ongoing prospective cohort study that started in 1990 in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. The study aims to unravel etiology, preclinical course, natural history and potential targets for intervention for chronic diseases in mid-life and late-life. The study focuses on cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, otolaryngological, locomotor, and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. Since 2016, the cohort is being expanded by persons aged 40 years and over. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in over 1700 research articles and reports. This article provides an update on the rationale and design of the study. It also presents a summary of the major findings from the preceding 3 years and outlines developments for the coming period.

The times we are born into and our lifestyle choices determine our health trajectories in older age - Results from the KORA-Age study

Health projections often extrapolate from observations in current ageing cohorts, but health in older age may depend not only on individual characteristics but also on a person's historical context. Our objective was to investigate how health deficit accumulation trajectories after age 65 differed in five adjacent birth cohorts and according to individual life course characteristics. Data originate from the 2008/09 KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-Age cohort study from Southern Germany and their 2012 and 2016 follow-ups. Deficit accumulation was assessed using a Frailty Index. The effects of birth cohort membership and individual life course characteristics on deficit accumulation trajectories were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. Out of 2701 participants (49% male) from five birth cohorts (1919-23, 1924-28, 1929-33, 1934-38, 1939-43), we included 2512 individuals with 5560 observations. Frailty Index levels were higher for women, smokers, alcohol abstainers, obese participants and persons with a sedentary lifestyle or living below the poverty threshold. We found higher age-specific Frailty Index levels for the two most recent birth cohorts (e.g. 61%, CI: [13%; 130%] for the 1934-38 as compared to the 1919-23 cohort), but the rate of deficit accumulation with age (7% per life year, (CI: [5%, 9%]) was cohort-independent. Results indicate that the historical context (birth cohort membership) may influence the number of accumulated health deficits after age 65 in addition to poverty and other individual life course characteristics, but BMI, physical activity and smoking remain the modifiable risk factors offering the highest prevention potential.