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Issa J, Wouterse B, Milkovska E, van Baal P. Quantifying income inequality in years of life lost to COVID-19: a prediction model approach using Dutch administrative data. Int J Epidemiol 2024; 53:dyad159. [PMID: 38081182 PMCID: PMC10859130 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyad159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Low socioeconomic status and underlying health increase the risk of fatal outcomes from COVID-19, resulting in more years of life lost (YLL) among the poor. However, using standard life expectancy overestimates YLL to COVID-19. We aimed to quantify YLL associated with COVID-19 deaths by sex and income quartile, while accounting for the impact of individual-level pre-existing health on remaining life expectancy for all Dutch adults aged 50+. METHODS Extensive administrative data were used to model probability of dying within the year for the entire 50+ population in 2019, considering age, sex, disposable income and health care use (n = 6 885 958). The model is used to predict mortality probabilities for those who died of COVID-19 (had they not died) in 2020. Combining these probabilities in life tables, we estimated YLL by sex and income quartile. The estimates are compared with YLL based on standard life expectancy and income-stratified life expectancy. RESULTS Using standard life expectancy results in 167 315 YLL (8.4 YLL per death) which is comparable to estimates using income-stratified life tables (167 916 YLL with 8.2 YLL per death). Considering pre-existing health and income, YLL decreased to 100 743, with 40% of years lost in the poorest income quartile (5.0 YLL per death). Despite individuals in the poorest quartile dying at younger ages, there were minimal differences in average YLL per COVID-19 death compared with the richest quartile. CONCLUSIONS Accounting for prior health significantly affects estimates of YLL due to COVID-19. However, inequality in YLL at the population level is primarily driven by higher COVID-19 deaths among the poor. To reduce income inequality in the health burden of future pandemics, policies should focus on limiting structural differences in underlying health and exposure of lower income groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jawa Issa
- Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bram Wouterse
- Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Elena Milkovska
- Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Pieter van Baal
- Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Nova A, Fazia T, Bernardinelli L. Investigating mortality trends in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic: life expectancy changes within provinces and vaccination campaign impact up to December 2022. Public Health 2023; 225:168-175. [PMID: 37925841 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.09.031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/01/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We used publicly available population data from 1 January 2019 up to 31 December 2022, to investigate mortality trends in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluating changes in life expectancy (LE) at birth within provinces and the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations. STUDY DESIGN Aggregate data analysis. METHODS Annual period life tables were used to estimate sex-specific LEs within provinces from 2019 to 2022. We used Arriaga decomposition to analyze the contribution of age groups (<60 years and ≥60 years) to annual LE changes. We implemented a Quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the number of averted deaths by the achieved COVID-19 vaccination rates from January 2021 up to December 2022, simulating a counterfactual scenario where vaccine doses were not administered. RESULTS The results revealed geographical heterogeneity in annual LE changes across Italian provinces during the pandemic. By the end of 2022, LE was below the prepandemic levels in 88% of provinces for females and in 76% for males. In addition, we estimated that the achieved vaccination rates averted 460,831 deaths (95% confidence interval: 250,976-707,920), corresponding to a 25% reduction in expected all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the study highlighted the significant role of COVID-19 vaccinations in averting a considerable number of deaths and improving LE. However, by the end of 2022, LE had not fully recovered to prepandemic levels in many provinces. This could be attributed to concurrent factors, including enduring COVID-19 pandemic effects, intense summer heat waves and early onset of seasonal flu. Further research and continuous monitoring are essential to fully comprehend long-term mortality trends and optimize public health strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Nova
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy.
| | - T Fazia
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy.
| | - L Bernardinelli
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy.
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Lundberg CE, Santosa A, Björk J, Brandén M, Cronie O, Lindgren M, Edqvist J, Åberg M, Adiels M, Rosengren A. Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population. Eur J Public Health 2023; 33:916-922. [PMID: 37263601 PMCID: PMC10567253 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic. METHODS In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population. RESULTS COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christina E Lundberg
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Food and Nutrition, and Sport Science, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Ailiana Santosa
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Jonas Björk
- Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden
| | - Maria Brandén
- Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Department of Sociology, Stockholm University Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute for Analytical Sociology, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Ottmar Cronie
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Martin Lindgren
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Medicine Geriatrics and Emergency Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital Östra Hospital, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Jon Edqvist
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Maria Åberg
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Regionhälsan, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Martin Adiels
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Annika Rosengren
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Medicine Geriatrics and Emergency Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital Östra Hospital, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
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The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020-2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. SSM Popul Health 2023; 22:101377. [PMID: 36919136 PMCID: PMC9998239 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Revised: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The Nordic countries offer an ideal case study of the COVID-19 pandemic due to their comparability, high data quality, and variable mitigations. We investigated the age- and sex-specific mortality patterns during 2020-2021 for the five Nordic countries and analysed the total age- and sex-adjusted excess deaths, ratios of actual to expected death rates, and age-standardized excess death estimates. We assessed excess deaths using several time periods and sensitivity tests, and 42 sex and age groups. Declining pre-pandemic age-specific death rates reflected improving health demographics. These affect the expected death estimates and should be accounted for in excess mortality models. Denmark had the highest death rates both before and during the pandemic, whereas in 2020 Sweden had the largest mortality increase. The age-standardized mortality of Denmark, Iceland and Norway was lowest in 2020. 2021 was one of the lowest mortality years for all Nordic countries. The total excess deaths in 2020-2021 were dominated by 70-89-year-olds, were not identified in children, and were more pronounced among men than women. Sweden had more excess deaths in 2020 than in 2021, whereas Finland, Norway and Denmark had the opposite. Our study provides new details on Nordic sex- and age-specific mortality during the first two years of the pandemic and shows that several metrics are important to enable a full understanding and comparison of the pandemic mortality.
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Rubo M, Czuppon P. How should we speak about years of life lost (YLL) values? Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:345-347. [PMID: 36877277 PMCID: PMC9986658 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-00966-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 01/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marius Rubo
- grid.5734.50000 0001 0726 5157Institute of Psychology, University of Bern, Fabrikstrasse 8, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Peter Czuppon
- grid.5949.10000 0001 2172 9288Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity, University of Münster, Hüfferstr. 1, 48149 Münster, Germany
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