A Capture-Recapture-based Ascertainment Probability Weighting Method for Effect Estimation With Under-ascertained Outcomes

Outcome under-ascertainment, characterized by the incomplete identification or reporting of cases, poses a substantial challenge in epidemiologic research. While capture-recapture methods can estimate unknown case numbers, their role in estimating exposure effects in observational studies is not well established. This paper presents an ascertainment probability weighting framework that integrates capture-recapture and propensity score weighting. We propose a nonparametric estimator of effects on binary outcomes that combines exposure propensity scores with data from two conditionally independent outcome measurements to simultaneously adjust for confounding and under-ascertainment. Demonstrating its practical application, we apply the method to estimate the relationship between health care work and coronavirus disease 2019 testing in a Swedish region. We find that ascertainment probability weighting greatly influences the estimated association compared to conventional inverse probability weighting, underscoring the importance of accounting for under-ascertainment in studies with limited outcome data coverage. We conclude with practical guidelines for the method's implementation, discussing its strengths, limitations, and suitable scenarios for application.

The skåne emergency medicine (SEM) cohort

BACKGROUND

In the European Union alone, more than 100 million people present to the emergency department (ED) each year, and this has increased steadily year-on-year by 2-3%. Better patient management decisions have the potential to reduce ED crowding, the number of diagnostic tests, the use of inpatient beds, and healthcare costs.

METHODS

We have established the Skåne Emergency Medicine (SEM) cohort for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSS) based on artificial intelligence or machine learning as well as traditional statistical methods. The SEM cohort consists of 325 539 unselected unique patients with 630 275 visits from January 1st, 2017 to December 31st, 2018 at eight EDs in the region Skåne in southern Sweden. Data on sociodemographics, previous diseases and current medication are available for each ED patient visit, as well as their chief complaint, test results, disposition and the outcome in the form of subsequent diagnoses, treatments, healthcare costs and mortality within a follow-up period of at least 30 days, and up to 3 years.

DISCUSSION

The SEM cohort provides a platform for CDSS research, and we welcome collaboration. In addition, SEM's large amount of real-world patient data with almost complete short-term follow-up will allow research in epidemiology, patient management, diagnostics, prognostics, ED crowding, resource allocation, and social medicine.

Mechanistic insights into on-surface reactions from isothermal temperature-programmed X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

On-surface synthesis often proceeds under kinetic control due to the irreversibility of key reaction steps, rendering kinetic studies pivotal. The accurate quantification of reaction rates also bears potential for unveiling reaction mechanisms. Temperature-Programmed X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (TP-XPS) has emerged as an analytical tool for kinetic studies with splendid chemical and sufficient temporal resolution. Here, we demonstrate that the common linear temperature ramps lead to fitting ambiguities. Moreover, pinpointing the reaction order remains intricate, although this key parameter entails information on atomistic mechanisms. Yet, TP-XPS experiments with a stepped temperature profile comprised of isothermal segments facilitate the direct quantification of rate constants from fitting time courses. Thereby, rate constants are obtained for a series of temperatures, which allows independent extraction of both activation energies and pre-exponentials from Arrhenius plots. By using two analogous doubly versus triply brominated aromatic model compounds, we found that their debromination on Ag(111) is best modeled by second-order kinetics and thus proceeds via the involvement of a second, non-obvious reactant. Accordingly, we propose that debromination is activated by surface supplied Ag adatoms. This hypothesis is supported by Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations. We foresee auspicious prospects for this TP-XPS variant for further exploring the kinetics and mechanisms of on-surface reactions.

Universal inter-molecular radical transfer reactions on metal surfaces

On-surface synthesis provides tools to prepare low-dimensional supramolecular structures. Traditionally, reactive radicals are a class of single-electron species, serving as exceptional electron-withdrawing groups. On metal surfaces, however, such species are affected by conduction band screening effects that may even quench their unpaired electron characteristics. As a result, radicals are expected to be less active, and reactions catalyzed by surface-stabilized radicals are rarely reported. Herein, we describe a class of inter-molecular radical transfer reactions on metal surfaces. With the assistance of aryl halide precursors, the coupling of terminal alkynes is steered from non-dehydrogenated to dehydrogenated products, resulting in alkynyl-Ag-alkynyl bonds. Dehalogenated molecules are fully passivated by detached hydrogen atoms. The reaction mechanism is unraveled by various surface-sensitive technologies and density functional theory calculations. Moreover, we reveal the universality of this mechanism on metal surfaces. Our studies enrich the on-surface synthesis toolbox and develop a pathway for producing low-dimensional organic materials.

Comorbidities in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a sibling study

BACKGROUND

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has previously been associated with several comorbidities that may have shared genetic, epigenetic, developmental or environmental origins. PCOS may be influenced by prenatal androgen excess, poor intrauterine or childhood environmental factors, childhood obesity and learned health risk behaviors. We analyzed the association between PCOS and several relevant comorbidities while adjusting for early-life biological and socioeconomic conditions, also investigating the extent to which the association is affected by familial risk factors.

METHODS

This total-population register-based cohort study included 333,999 full sisters, born between 1962 and 1980. PCOS and comorbidity diagnoses were measured at age 17-45 years through national hospital register data from 1997 to 2011, and complemented with information on the study subjects´ early-life and social characteristics. In the main analysis, sister fixed effects (FE) models were used to control for all time-invariant factors that are shared among sisters, thereby testing whether the association between PCOS and examined comorbidities is influenced by unobserved familial environmental, social or genetic factors.

RESULTS

Three thousand five hundred seventy women in the Sister sample were diagnosed with PCOS, of whom 14% had obesity, 8% had depression, 7% had anxiety and 4% experienced sleeping, sexual and eating disorders (SSE). Having PCOS increased the odds of obesity nearly 6-fold (adjusted OR (aOR): 5.9 [95% CI:5.4-6.5]). This association was attenuated in models accounting for unobserved characteristics shared between full sisters, but remained considerable in size (Sister FE: aOR: 4.5 [95% CI: 3.6-5.6]). For depression (Sister FE: aOR: 1.4 [95% CI: 1.2-1.8]) and anxiety (Sister FE: aOR: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.2-1.8), there was a small decrease in the aORs when controlling for factors shared between sisters. Being diagnosed with SSE disorders yielded a 2.4 aOR (95% CI:2.0-2.6) when controlling for a comprehensive set of individual-level confounders, which only decreased slightly when controlling for factors at the family level such as shared genes or parenting style. Accounting for differences between sisters in observed early-life circumstances influenced the estimated associations marginally.

CONCLUSION

Having been diagnosed with PCOS is associated with a markedly increased risk of obesity and sleeping, sexual and eating disorders, also after accounting for factors shared between sisters and early-life conditions.

Extending the cystatin C based EKFC-equation to children - validation results from Europe

BACKGROUND

A new cystatin C based European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFCCysC) equation was recently developed for adults, using the same mathematical form as the previously published full age spectrum creatinine based EKFC-equation (EKFCCrea). In the present study the cystatin C based EKFC-equation is extended to children, by defining the appropriate cystatin C rescaling factor QCysC.

METHODS

Rescaling factor QCysC for cystatin C was defined as: a) 0.83 mg/L, exactly as it was defined for young adults in the adult equation, and b) a more complex QCysC-age relationship based on 4th degree cystatin C-age polynomials after evaluation of data from Uppsala, Stockholm and Canada and aggregated data from Germany. The EKFCCysC equation was then validated in an independent dataset in European children (n = 2,293) with measured GFR, creatinine, cystatin C, age, height and sex available.

RESULTS

The EKFCCysC with the simple QCysC-value of 0.83 had a bias of -7.6 [95%CI -8.4;-6.5] mL/min/1.73 m2 and a P30-value of 85.8% [95%CI 84.4;87.3] equal to the EKFCCysC with the more complex 4th degree QCysC-value. The arithmetic mean of the EKFCCrea and EKFCCysC with the simple QCysC of 0.83 had a bias of -4.0 [95%CI -4.5;-3.1] mL/min/1.73 m2 and P30 of 90.4% [95%CI 89.2;91.6] similar to using the more complex 4th degree QCysC-polynomial.

CONCLUSION

Using exactly the same QCysC of 0.83 mg/L, the adult EKFCCysC can easily be extended to children, with some bias but acceptable P30-values. The arithmetic mean of EKFCCrea and EKFCCysC results in bias closer to zero and P30 slightly over 90%.

A Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Strategy for Ruling Out Myocardial Infarction

Background

Ruling out acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the emergency department (ED) is challenging. Studies have shown that a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) <5 ng/L or <6 ng/L at presentation (0 h) can be used to rule out AMI. The objective of this study was to identify whether an even higher hs-cTnT threshold can be used for a safe rule out of AMI in the ED.

Methods

The derivation cohort consisted of 24,973 ED patients with a primary complaint of chest pain. In this cohort, we identified the highest concentration of 0 h hs-cTnT that corresponded to a negative predictive value (NPV) of ≥99.5% for the primary endpoint of AMI/all-cause death within 30 days and the secondary endpoint of all-cause death within one year. The results were validated in two cohorts consisting of 132,021 and 1167 ED chest pain patients.

Results

The 0 h hs-cTnT threshold corresponding to a NPV of ≥99.5% for the primary endpoint was <9 ng/L (NPV: 99.6% and 95% CI: 99.5-99.7). This cutoff provided a sensitivity of 96.2% (95% CI: 95.2-97.1) and identified 59.7% of the patients as low risk compared to 35.8% and 43.9% with a 0 h hs-cTnT <5 ng/L and <6 ng/L, respectively. The results were similar in the validation cohorts and seemed to perform even better in patients where the 0 h hs-cTnT was measured >3 h after symptom onset and in those with a nonischemic ECG and nonhigh risk history.

Conclusions

A 0 h hs-cTnT cutoff of <9 ng/L safely rules out AMI/death within 30 days in a majority of chest pain patients and is a more effective strategy than the currently recommended <5 ng/L and <6 ng/L cutoffs. This trial is registered with NCT03421873.

Previous SARS-CoV-2 infections and their impact on the protection from reinfection during the Omicron BA.5 wave - a nested case-control study among vaccinated adults in Sweden

Objectives

We evaluated the protection afforded by SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced immunity against reinfection among working-age vaccinated individuals during a calendar period from June to December 2022 when Omicron BA.5 was the dominating subvariant in Scania County, Sweden.

Methods

The study cohort (n = 71,592) mainly consisted of health care workers. We analyzed 4144 infected cases during the Omicron BA.5 dominance and 41,440 sex- and age-matched controls with conditional logistic regression.

Results

The average protection against reinfection was marginal (16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7-23%) during the study period but substantially higher for recent infections. Recent infection (3-6 months) with Omicron BA.2 and BA.5 offered strong protection (86%, 95% CI 68-94% and 78%, 95% CI 69-84%), whereas more distant infection (6-12 months) with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and the variants before Omicron offered marginal or no protection.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that infection-induced immunity contributes to short-term population protection against infection with the subvariant BA.5 among working-age vaccinated individuals but wanes considerably with time, independent of the virus variant.

Performance of the European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) creatinine-based equation in United States cohorts

Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in daily practice to assess kidney function and adapting the best clinical care of patients with and without chronic kidney disease. The new creatinine-based European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) equation is used to estimate GFR. This equation was developed and validated mainly in European individuals and based on a rescaled creatinine, with the rescaling factor (Q-value) defined as the median normal value of serum creatinine in a given population. The validation was limited in Non-Black Americans and absent in Black Americans. Here, our cross-sectional analysis included 12,854 participants from nine studies encompassing large numbers of both non-Black and Black Americans with measured GFR by clearance of an exogenous marker (reference method), serum creatinine, age, sex, and self-reported race available. Two strategies were considered with population-specific Q-values in Black and non-Black men and women (EKFCPS) or a race-free Q-value (EKFCRF). In the whole population, only the EKFCPS equation showed no statistical median bias (0.14, 95% confidence interval [-0.07; 0.35] mL/min/1.73m2), and the bias for the EKFCRF (0.74, [0.51; 0.94] mL/min/1.73m2) was closer to zero than that for the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI2021) equation (1.22, [0.99; 1.47]) mL/min/1.73m2]. The percentage of estimated GFR within 30% of measured GFR was similar for CKD-EPI2021 (79.2% [78.5%; 79.9%]) and EKFCRF (80.1% [79.4%; 80.7%]), but improved for the EKFCPS equation (81.1% [80.5%; 81.8%]). Thus, our EKFC equations can be used to estimate GFR in the United States incorporating either self-reported race or unknown race at the patient's discretion per hospital registration records.

Rescaling creatinine makes GFR estimation equations generally applicable across populations - validation results for the Lund-Malmö equation in a French cohort of sub-Saharan ancestry

OBJECTIVES

To make glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations applicable across populations with different creatinine generation by using rescaled serum creatinine (sCr/Q) where sCr represents the individual creatinine level and Q the average creatinine value in healthy persons of the same population.

METHODS

GFR measurements (mGFR, plasma clearance of 51Cr-EDTA) were conducted in 964 adult Black Europeans. We established the re-expressed Lund-Malmö revised equation (r-LMR) by replacing serum creatinine (sCr) with rescaled creatinine sCr/Q. We evaluated the r-LMR equation based on Q-values of White Europeans (r-LMRQ-white; Q-values females: 62 μmol/L, males: 80 μmol/L) and Black Europeans (r-LMRQ-Black; Q-values females: 65 μmol/L, males: 90 μmol/L), and the European Kidney Function Consortium equation (EKFCQ-White and EKFCQ-Black) regarding bias, precision (interquartile range, IQR) and accuracy (percentage of estimates within ±10 % [P10] and ±30 % [P30] of mGFR).

RESULTS

Median bias of r-LMRQ-White/r-LMRQ-Black/EKFCQ-White/EKFCQ-Black were -9.1/-4.5/-6.3/-0.9 mL/min/1.73 m2, IQR 14.7/14.5/14.5/15.6 mL/min/1.73 m2, P10 25.1 %/34.8 %/30.3 %/37.2 % and P30 74.2 %/84.1 %/80.6 %/83.6 %. The improvement of bias and accuracy when using proper Q-values was most pronounced in men. Similar improvements were obtained above and below mGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and at various age and BMI intervals, except for BMI<20 kg/m2 where bias increased, and accuracy decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

GFR estimating equations may be re-expressed to include rescaled creatinine (sCr/Q) and used across populations with different creatinine generation if population-specific average creatinine concentrations (Q-values) for healthy persons are established.

Sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 testing rates: spatiotemporal patterns and impact of test accessibility in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic testing is essential for disease surveillance and test-trace-isolate efforts. We aimed to investigate if residential area sociodemographic characteristics and test accessibility were associated with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing rates.

METHODS

We included 426 224 patient-initiated COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction tests from Uppsala County in Sweden from 24 June 2020 to 9 February 2022. Using Poisson regression analyses, we investigated if postal code area Care Need Index (CNI; median 1.0, IQR 0.8-1.4), a composite measure of sociodemographic factors used in Sweden to allocate primary healthcare resources, was associated with COVID-19 daily testing rates after adjustments for community transmission. We assessed if the distance to testing station influenced testing, and performed a difference-in-difference-analysis of a new testing station targeting a disadvantaged neighbourhood.

RESULTS

We observed that CNI, i.e. primary healthcare need, was negatively associated with COVID-19 testing rates in inhabitants 5-69 years. More pronounced differences were noted across younger age groups and in Uppsala City, with test rate ratios in children (5-14 years) ranging from 0.56 (95% CI 0.47-0.67) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.80-0.93) across three pandemic waves. Longer distance to the nearest testing station was linked to lower testing rates, e.g. every additional 10 km was associated with a 10-18% decrease in inhabitants 15-29 years in Uppsala County. The opening of the targeted testing station was associated with increased testing, including twice as high testing rates in individuals aged 70-105, supporting an intervention effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring accessible testing across all residential areas constitutes a promising tool to decrease inequalities in testing.

Patterns of simultaneous contact allergies in patients with contact sensitization to oxidised linalool and oxidised limonene

BACKGROUND

Contact allergy rates of linalool and limonene hydroperoxides (HPs) have increased.

OBJECTIVES

To demonstrate the patterns of simultaneous positive patch test (PT) reactions and prevalences of multiple contact allergies (MCAs) in patients with contact allergy to linalool and/or limonene HPs.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of consecutive dermatitis patients in 2015-2020 was performed.

RESULTS

Of all 4192 patients, 1851 had at least one positive PT reaction. Of these, 410 (22.2%) had MCAs, significantly related to a higher age (p-value = 0.003). Patients with an exclusively positive reaction to linalool HPs but not limonene HPs were shown to have MCAs (p-value <0.001, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 4.15 (3.01-5.73)). Patients with simultaneous contact allergies to both linalool and limonene HPs had contact allergies to many other screening and fragrance allergens.

CONCLUSIONS

Simultaneous positive PT reactions to allergens in baseline series and fragrances are common in patients with the HPs contact allergy, especially linalool HPs. The pattern of simultaneous PT reactions principally suggested the co-sensitization of the cosmetic allergens.

Prior electrocardiograms not useful for machine learning predictions of major adverse cardiac events in emergency department chest pain patients

At the emergency department (ED), it is important to quickly and accurately determine which patients are likely to have a major adverse cardiac event (MACE). Machine learning (ML) models can be used to aid physicians in detecting MACE, and improving the performance of such models is an active area of research. In this study, we sought to determine if ML models can be improved by including a prior electrocardiogram (ECG) from each patient. To that end, we trained several models to predict MACE within 30 days, both with and without prior ECGs, using data collected from 19,499 consecutive patients with chest pain, from five EDs in southern Sweden, between the years 2017 and 2018. Our results indicate no improvement in AUC from prior ECGs. This was consistent across models, both with and without additional clinical input variables, for different patient subgroups, and for different subsets of the outcome. While contradicting current best practices for manual ECG analysis, the results are positive in the sense that ML models with fewer inputs are more easily and widely applicable in practice.

Atomic Scale Design of MXenes and Their Parent Materials─From Theoretical and Experimental Perspectives

More than a decade after the discovery of MXene, there has been a remarkable increase in research on synthesis, characterization, and applications of this growing family of two-dimensional (2D) carbides and nitrides. Today, these materials include one, two, or more transition metals arranged in chemically ordered or disordered structures of three, five, seven, or nine atomic layers, with a surface chemistry characterized by surface terminations. By combining M, X, and various surface terminations, it appears that a virtually endless number of MXenes is possible. However, for the design and discovery of structures and compositions beyond current MXenes, one needs suitable (stable) precursors, an assessment of viable pathways for 3D to 2D conversion, and utilization or development of corresponding synthesis techniques. Here, we present a critical and forward-looking review of the field of atomic scale design and synthesis of MXenes and their parent materials. We discuss theoretical methods for predicting MXene precursors and for assessing whether they are chemically exfoliable. We also summarize current experimental methods for realizing the predicted materials, listing all verified MXenes to date, and outline research directions that will improve the fundamental understanding of MXene processing, enabling atomic scale design of future 2D materials, for emerging technologies.

Waning protection after vaccination and prior infection against COVID-19-related mortality over 18 months

OBJECTIVES

Evidence on waning patterns in protection from vaccine-induced, infection-induced, and hybrid immunity against death is scarce. The aim of this study is to assess the temporal trends in protection against mortality.

METHODS

Population-based case-control study nested in the total population of Scania Region, Sweden using individual-level registry data of COVID-19-related deaths (<30 days after positive SARS-CoV-2 test) between 27 December 2020 and 3 June 2022. Controls were matched for age, sex, and index date. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the preventable fraction (PF) from vaccination (PFvac corresponding to vaccine effectiveness; ≥2 vaccine doses vs. 0 doses), prior infection (PFinf), and hybrid immunity (PFhybrid). PF was calculated as one minus odds ratio. Models were adjusted for comorbidities, long-term care facility residence, prior infection (for PFvac), country of birth, socio-economic conditions, and time since last vaccination (for PFinf).

RESULTS

In total, 14 936 individuals (1440 COVID-19-related deaths and 13 496 controls) were included in the case-control analyses (45% females, median age: 84 years). PFvac was above 90% during the first month after vaccination, regardless of the number of vaccine doses. After 6 months, PFvac of two doses waned to 34% (95% CI: -30% to 66%). PFinf for people surviving a SARS-CoV-2 infection waned from 88% (-16% to 99%) 3 months after infection to 62% (34-79%) after 9 months. No differences in waning patterns in PFvac were seen between virus variants, gender, and age.

DISCUSSION

Given the waning of protection against death, continuous surveillance of population immunity status, particularly among the most vulnerable population groups, could help to further fine-tune vaccination recommendations.

The role of aromaticity in the cyclization and polymerization of alkyne-substituted porphyrins on Au(111)

Aromaticity is an established and widely used concept for the prediction of the reactivity of organic molecules. However, its role remains largely unexplored in on-surface chemistry, where the interaction with the substrate can alter the electronic and geometric structure of the adsorbates. Here we investigate how aromaticity affects the reactivity of alkyne-substituted porphyrin molecules in cyclization and coupling reactions on a Au(111) surface. We examine and quantify the regioselectivity in the reactions by scanning tunnelling microscopy and bond-resolved atomic force microscopy at the single-molecule level. Our experiments show a substantially lower reactivity of carbon atoms that are stabilized by the aromatic diaza[18]annulene pathway of free-base porphyrins. The results are corroborated by density functional theory calculations, which show a direct correlation between aromaticity and thermodynamic stability of the reaction products. These insights are helpful to understand, and in turn design, reactions with aromatic species in on-surface chemistry and heterogeneous catalysis.

Early Life Factors and Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in a Swedish Birth Cohort

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a medical condition with important consequences for women's well-being and reproductive outcomes. Although the etiology of PCOS is not fully understood, there is increasing evidence of both genetic and environmental determinants, including development in early life. We studied a population of 977,637 singleton women born in in Sweden between 1973 and 1995, followed sometime between the age 15 and 40. The incidence of PCOS was measured using hospital register data during 2001-2012, complemented with information about the women's, parents' and sisters' health and social characteristics from population and health care registers. Cox regression was used to study how PCOS is associated with intergenerational factors, and a range of early life characteristics. 11,594 women in the study sample were diagnosed with PCOS during the follow-up period. The hazard rate for PCOS was increased 3-fold (HR 2.98, 95% CI 2.43-3.64) if the index woman's mother had been diagnosed with PCOS, and with 1.5-fold (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.39-1.63) if their mother had diabetes mellitus. We found associations of PCOS with lower (<7) one-minute Apgar score (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09-1.29) and with post-term birth (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.13-1.26). Furthermore, heavy (10+ cigarettes/day) maternal smoking (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.18-1.44) and maternal obesity (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.62-2.36) were strongly associated with PCOS. This study finds support for the heritability and fetal origins of PCOS. Risk of PCOS could be reduced by further emphasizing the importance of maternal and early life health.

Role of chloride on the instability of blue emitting mixed-halide perovskites

Although perovskite light-emitting diodes (PeLEDs) have seen unprecedented development in device efficiency over the past decade, they suffer significantly from poor operational stability. This is especially true for blue PeLEDs, whose operational lifetime remains orders of magnitude behind their green and red counterparts. Here, we systematically investigate this efficiency-stability discrepancy in a series of green- to blue-emitting PeLEDs based on mixed Br/Cl-perovskites. We find that chloride incorporation, while having only a limited impact on efficiency, detrimentally affects device stability even in small amounts. Device lifetime drops exponentially with increasing Cl-content, accompanied by an increased rate of change in electrical properties during operation. We ascribe this phenomenon to an increased mobility of halogen ions in the mixed-halide lattice due to an increased chemically and structurally disordered landscape with reduced migration barriers. Our results indicate that the stability enhancement for PeLEDs might require different strategies from those used for improving efficiency.

The concurrent validity of the Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion and the Karolinska Exhaustion Disorder Scale: a replication study

OBJECTIVE

As part of our research on Swedish school principals, we examined the concurrent validity between the Karolinska Exhaustion Disorder Scale (KEDS) and the Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion (LUCIE) in a cross-sectional study sample (N = 2670). Specifically, we examined: (a) to what extent LUCIE and KEDS identified the same individuals and their level of agreement, and (b) to what extent the present observations among school-principals agreed with previous observations made in a highly educated and healthy study sample drawn from the general population.

RESULTS

Depending on established cut-points on LUCIE, the Kappa agreement (K) between LUCIE and KEDS varied between fair (K = 0.34 [95% Confidence Interval = 0.30-0.38]) and moderate (K = 0.54 [95% Confidence Interval = 0.51-0.58]). While the instruments did not always identify the same individuals, the most reasonable comparison between KEDS and LUCIE was achieved when the cut-off on LUCIE was made between step two and step three. The results essentially replicated our previous results observed in a highly educated and healthy study sample drawn from the general population. The level of agreement suggests that KEDS and LUCIE scores are supplementary rather than interchangeable. Thus, individual result from KEDS and LUCIE are probably best understood in dialogue with the person screened.

Can non-participants in a follow-up be used to draw conclusions about incidences and prevalences in the full population invited at baseline? An investigation based on the Swedish MDC cohort

BACKGROUND

Participants in epidemiological cohorts may not be representative of the full invited population, limiting the generalizability of prevalence and incidence estimates. We propose that this problem can be remedied by exploiting data on baseline participants who refused to participate in a re-examination, as such participants may be more similar to baseline non-participants than what baseline participants who agree to participate in the re-examination are.

METHODS

We compared background characteristics, mortality, and disease incidences across the full population invited to the Malmö Diet and Cancer (MDC) study, the baseline participants, the baseline non-participants, the baseline participants who participated in a re-examination, and the baseline participants who did not participate in the re-examination. We then considered two models for estimating characteristics and outcomes in the full population: one ("the substitution model") assuming that the baseline non-participants were similar to the baseline participants who refused to participate in the re-examination, and one ("the extrapolation model") assuming that differences between the full group of baseline participants and the baseline participants who participated in the re-examination could be extended to infer results in the full population. Finally, we compared prevalences of baseline risk factors including smoking, risky drinking, overweight, and obesity across baseline participants, baseline participants who participated in the re-examination, and baseline participants who did not participate in the re-examination, and used the above models to estimate the prevalences of these factors in the full invited population.

RESULTS

Compared to baseline non-participants, baseline participants were less likely to be immigrants, had higher socioeconomic status, and lower mortality and disease incidences. Baseline participants not participating in the re-examination generally resembled the full population. The extrapolation model often generated characteristics and incidences even more similar to the full population. The prevalences of risk factors, particularly smoking, were estimated to be substantially higher in the full population than among the baseline participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants in epidemiological cohorts such as the MDC study are unlikely to be representative of the full invited population. Exploiting data on baseline participants who did not participate in a re-examination can be a simple and useful way to improve the generalizability of prevalence and incidence estimates.

Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population

BACKGROUND

Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic.

METHODS

In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population.

RESULTS

COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.

Examining the continuum of resistance model in two population-based screening studies in Sweden

In studies recruited on a voluntary basis, lack of representativity may impair the ability to generalize findings to the target population. Previous studies, primarily based on surveys, have suggested that generalizability may be improved by exploiting data on individuals who agreed to participate only after receiving one or several reminders, as such individuals may be more similar to non-participants than what early participants are. Assessing this idea in the context of screenings, we compared sociodemographic characteristics and health across early, late, and non-participants in two large population-based screening studies in Sweden: STROKESTOP II (screening for atrial fibrillation; 6,867 participants) and SCREESCO (screening for colorectal cancer; 39,363 participants). We also explored the opportunities to reproduce the distributions of characteristics in the full invited populations, either by assuming that the non-participants were similar to the late participants, or by applying a linear extrapolation model based on both early and late participants. Findings showed that early and late participants exhibited similar characteristics along most dimensions, including civil status, education, income, and health examination results. Both these types of participants in turn differed from the non-participants, with fewer married, lower educational attainments, and lower incomes. Compared to early participants, late participants were more likely to be born outside of Sweden and to have comorbidities, with non-participants similar or even more so. The two empirical models improved representativity in some cases, but not always. Overall, we found mixed support that data on late participation may be useful for improving representativeness of screening studies.

Development and initial validation of a multivariable predictive Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz) using register data to quantify environmental risk for adult schizophrenia diagnosis after childhood exposure to adversity

BACKGROUND

Additional to a child's genetic inheritance, environmental exposures are associated with schizophrenia. Many are broadly described as childhood adversity; modelling the combined impact of these is complex. We aimed to develop and validate a scale on childhood adversity, independent of genetic and other environmental liabilities, for use in schizophrenia risk analysis models, using data from cross-linked electronic health and social services registers.

METHOD

A cohort of N = 428 970 Western Australian children born 1980-2001 was partitioned into three samples: scale development sample (N = 171 588), and two scale validation samples (each N = 128 691). Measures of adversity were defined before a child's 10th birthday from five domains: discontinuity in parenting, family functioning, family structure, area-level socioeconomic/demographic environment and family-level sociodemographic status. Using Cox proportional hazards modelling of follow-up time from 10th birthday to schizophrenia diagnosis or censorship, weighted combinations of measures were firstly developed into scales for each domain, then combined into a final global scale. Discrimination and calibration performance were validated using Harrell's C and graphical assessment respectively.

RESULTS

A weighted combination of 42 measures of childhood adversity was derived from the development sample. Independent application to identical measures in validation samples produced Harrell's Concordance statistics of 0.656 and 0.624. Average predicted time to diagnosis curves corresponded with 95% CI limits of observed Kaplan-Meier curves in five prognostic categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz), the first using routinely collected register data, predicts schizophrenia diagnosis above chance, and has potential to help untangle contributions of genetic and environmental liability to schizophrenia risk.

A systematic study of work function and electronic properties of MXenes from first principles

Functional 2D materials are interesting for a wide range of applications. The rapid growth of the MXene family is due to its compositional diversity, which, in turn, allows significant tuning of the properties, and hence their applicability. The properties are to a large extent dictated by surface terminations. In the present work, we demonstrate the influence of termination species (O, NH, N, S, F, Cl, Br, I) on the changes in electronic structure, work function, dynamical stability, and atomic charges and distances of MXenes (Ti₂C, Nb₂C, V₂C, Mo₂C, Ti₃C_2, and Nb₄C₃). Among these systems, the work function values were not previously reported for ∼60% of the systems, and most of the previously reported MXenes with semiconducting nature are here proven to be dynamically unstable. The results show that the work function generally decreases with a reduced electronegativity of the terminating species, which in turn is correlated to a reduced charge of both the metal and terminating species and an increased metal-termination distance. An exception to this trend is NH terminations, which display a significantly reduced work function due to an intrinsic dipole moment within the termination. Furthermore, the results suggest that halogen terminations improve the electrical conductivity of the materials.

Pulmonary embolism and deep venous thrombosis after COVID-19: long-term risk in a population-based cohort study

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) (pulmonary embolism (PE) or deep venous thrombosis (DVT)) is common during acute COVID-19. Long-term excess risk has not yet been established.

Objective

To study long-term VTE risk after COVID-19.

Methods

Swedish citizens aged 18-84 years, hospitalized and/or testing positive for COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and September 11, 2021 (exposed), stratified by initial hospitalization, were compared to matched (1:5) non-exposed population-derived subjects without COVID-19. Outcomes were incident VTE, PE or DVT recorded within 60, 60-<180, and ≥180 days. Cox regression was used for evaluation and a model adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities and socioeconomic markers developed to control for confounders.

Results

Among exposed patients, 48,861 were hospitalized for COVID-19 (mean age 60.6 years) and 894,121 were without hospitalization (mean age 41.4 years). Among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) during 60-<180 days were 6.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.80─7.62) for PE and 3.97 (CI 2.96─5.33) for DVT, compared to non-exposed with corresponding estimates among COVID-19 without hospitalization 1.17 (CI 1.01─1.35) and 0.99 (CI 0.86─1.15), based on 475 and 2,311 VTE events, respectively. Long-term (≥180 days) HRs in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were 2.01 (CI 1.51─2.68) for PE and 1.46 (CI 1.05─2.01) for DVT while non-hospitalized had similar risk to non-exposed, based on 467 and 2,030 VTE events, respectively.

Conclusions

Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 retained an elevated excess risk of VTE, mainly PE, after 180 days, while long-term risk of VTE in individuals with COVID-19 without hospitalization was similar to the non-exposed.

A Masked Language Model for Multi-Source EHR Trajectories Contextual Representation Learning

Using electronic health records data and machine learning to guide future decisions needs to address challenges, including 1) long/short-term dependencies and 2) interactions between diseases and interventions. Bidirectional transformers have effectively addressed the first challenge. Here we tackled the latter challenge by masking one source (e.g., ICD10 codes) and training the transformer to predict it using other sources (e.g., ATC codes).

Vaccine-induced correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 in older and frail adults during waves of neutralization-resistant variants of concern: an observational study

Background

To inform future preventive measures including repeated vaccinations, we have searched for a clinically useful immune correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 among nursing homes residents.

Methods

We performed repeated capillary blood sampling with analysis of S-binding IgG in an open cohort of nursing home residents in Sweden. We analyzed immunological and registry data from 16 September 2021 to 31 August 2022 with follow-up of deaths to 30 September 2022. The study period included implementation of the 3rd and 4th mRNA monovalent vaccine doses and Omicron virus waves.

Findings

A total of 3012 nursing home residents with median age 86 were enrolled. The 3rd mRNA dose elicited a 99-fold relative increase of S-binding IgG in blood and corresponding increase of neutralizing antibodies. The 4th mRNA vaccine dose boosted levels 3.8-fold. Half-life of S-binding IgG was 72 days. A total 528 residents acquired their first SARS-CoV-2 infection after the 3rd or the 4th vaccine dose and the associated 30-day mortality was 9.1%. We found no indication that levels of vaccine-induced antibodies protected against infection with Omicron VOCs. In contrast, the risk of death was inversely correlated to levels of S-directed IgG below the 20th percentile. The death risk plateaued at population average above the lower 35th percentile of S-binding IgG.

Interpretation

In the absence of neutralizing antibodies that protect from infection, quantification of S-binding IgG post vaccination may be useful to identify the most vulnerable for fatal COVID-19 among the oldest and frailest. This information is of importance for future strategies to protect vulnerable populations against neutralization resistant variants of concern.

Funding

Swedish Research Council, SciLifeLab via Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, VINNOVA. Swedish Healthcare Regions, and Erling Persson Foundation.

Healthcare utilization and psychiatric morbidity in violent offenders: findings from a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Although persistent offenders with histories of imprisonment and violence have disproportionate high rates of psychiatric disorders, little is known of their psychiatric healthcare utilization (HCU) and HCU-associated factors. This study aimed to explore psychiatric HCU, psychiatric morbidity, and psychotropic prescription drugs in violent offenders with a history of incarceration.

METHODS

Male offenders aged 18-25 (n = 266) imprisoned for violent and/or physical sexual offenses were clinically assessed in 2010-2012 and prospectively followed in Swedish national registries through 2017. Register-based information regarding HCU, psychiatric morbidity, and psychotropic drugs was tracked and compared with a general population group (n = 10,000) and across offending trajectory groups. Baseline risk factors were used to explain prospective psychiatric HCU in violent offenders.

RESULTS

Violent offenders used less general healthcare and psychiatric outpatient care, but more psychiatric inpatient care and were more often given psychiatric diagnoses and psychotropic drugs than the general population. Participants previously assigned to persisting offending trajectory groups had higher rates of psychiatric HCU than those assigned to a desisting trajectory. In multivariable regression models, psychiatric HCU was associated with anxiety disorders, prior psychiatric contact, placement in a foster home, psychopathic traits, low intellectual functioning, and persistent offending.

CONCLUSIONS

Violent offenders are burdened by extensive and serious psychiatric morbidity and typically interact with psychiatric healthcare as inpatients rather than outpatients. Knowledge about their backgrounds, criminal behaviors, and psychiatric statuses can aid the planning of psychiatric services for this troublesome group.

On-Surface Synthesis of Polyphenylene Wires Comprising Rigid Aliphatic Bicyclo[1.1.1]Pentane Isolator Units

Bicyclo[1.1.1]pentane (BCP) motifs are of growing importance to the pharmaceutical industry as sp3-rich bioisosteres of benzene rings and as molecular tectons in materials science. Herein we explore the behavior of 1,3-disubstituted BCP moieties on metal surfaces by combining low-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy / non-contact atomic force microscopy studies with density functional theory modeling. We examine the configuration of individual BCP-containing precursors on Au(111), their supramolecular assembly and thermally activated dehalogenative coupling reactions, affording polymeric chains with incorporated electronically isolating units. Our studies not only provide the first sub-molecular insights of the BCP scaffold behavior on surfaces, but also extend the potential application of BCP derivatives towards integration in custom-designed surface architectures.

Pyridinic Nitrogen Modification for Selective Acetylenic Homocoupling on Au(111)

On-surface acetylenic homocoupling has been proposed to construct carbon nanostructures featuring sp hybridization. However, the efficiency of linear acetylenic coupling is far from satisfactory, often resulting in undesired enyne products or cyclotrimerization products due to the lack of strategies to enhance chemical selectivity. Herein, we inspect the acetylenic homocoupling reaction of polarized terminal alkynes (TAs) on Au(111) with bond-resolved scanning probe microscopy. The replacement of benzene with pyridine moieties significantly prohibits the cyclotrimerization pathway and facilitates the linear coupling to produce well-aligned N-doped graphdiyne nanowires. Combined with density functional theory calculations, we reveal that the pyridinic nitrogen modification substantially differentiates the coupling motifs at the initial C-C coupling stage (head-to-head vs head-to-tail), which is decisive for the preference of linear coupling over cyclotrimerization.

The complexity of kidney disease and diagnosing it - cystatin C, selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes and proteome regulation

Estimation of kidney function is often part of daily clinical practice, mostly done by using the endogenous glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-markers creatinine or cystatin C. A recommendation to use both markers in parallel in 2010 has resulted in new knowledge concerning the pathophysiology of kidney disorders by the identification of a new set of kidney disorders, selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. These syndromes, connected to strong increases in mortality and morbidity, are characterized by a selective reduction in the glomerular filtration of 5-30 kDa molecules, such as cystatin C, compared to the filtration of small molecules <1 kDa dominating the glomerular filtrate, for example water, urea and creatinine. At least two types of such disorders, shrunken or elongated pore syndrome, are possible according to the pore model for glomerular filtration. Selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes are prevalent in investigated populations, and patients with these syndromes often display normal measured GFR or creatinine-based GFR-estimates. The syndromes are characterized by proteomic changes promoting the development of atherosclerosis, indicating antibodies and specific receptor-blocking substances as possible new treatment modalities. Presently, the KDIGO guidelines for diagnosing kidney disorders do not recommend cystatin C as a general marker of kidney function and will therefore not allow the identification of a considerable number of patients with selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. Furthermore, as cystatin C is uninfluenced by muscle mass, diet or variations in tubular secretion and cystatin C-based GFR-estimation equations do not require controversial race or sex terms, it is obvious that cystatin C should be a part of future KDIGO guidelines.

Unveiling the formation mechanism of the biphenylene network

We have computationally studied the formation mechanism of the biphenylene network via the intermolecular HF zipping, as well as identified key intermediates experimentally, on the Au(111) surface. We elucidate that the zipping process consists of a series of defluorinations, dehydrogenations, and C-C coupling reactions. The Au substrate not only serves as the active site for defluorination and dehydrogenation, but also forms C-Au bonds that stabilize the defluorinated and dehydrogenated phenylene radicals, leading to "standing" benzyne groups. Despite that the C-C coupling between the "standing" benzyne groups is identified as the rate-limiting step, the limiting barrier can be reduced by the adjacent chemisorbed benzyne groups. The theoretically proposed mechanism is further supported by scanning tunneling microscopy experiments, in which the key intermediate state containing chemisorbed benzyne groups can be observed. This study provides a comprehensive understanding towards the on-surface intermolecular HF zipping, anticipated to be instructive for its future applications.

Proxy Variables and the Generalizability of Study Results

When individuals self-select (or are selected) into a study based on factors that influence the outcome, conclusions may not generalize to the full population. To compensate for this, results may be adjusted, for example, by standardization on the set of common causes of participation and outcome. Although such standardization is useful in some contexts, the common causes of participation and outcome may in practice not be fully observed. Instead, the researcher may have access to one or several variables related to the common causes, that is, to proxies for the common causes. This article defines and examines different types of proxy variables and shows how these can be used to obtain generalizable study results. First of all, the researcher may exploit proxies that influence only participation or outcome but which still allow for perfect generalizability by rendering participation and outcome conditionally independent. Further, generalizability can be achieved by leveraging 2 proxies, one of which is allowed to influence participation and one of which is allowed to influence the outcome, even if participation and outcome do not become independent conditional on these. Finally, approximate generalizability may be obtained by exploiting a single proxy that does not itself influence participation or outcome.

Machine learning for early prediction of acute myocardial infarction or death in acute chest pain patients using electrocardiogram and blood tests at presentation

AIMS

In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) models for identification of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or death within 30 days among emergency department (ED) chest pain patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from 9519 consecutive ED chest pain patients, we created ML models based on logistic regression or artificial neural networks. Model inputs included sex, age, ECG and the first blood tests at patient presentation: High sensitivity TnT (hs-cTnT), glucose, creatinine, and hemoglobin. For a safe rule-out, the models were adapted to achieve a sensitivity > 99% and a negative predictive value (NPV) > 99.5% for 30-day AMI/death. For rule-in, we set the models to achieve a specificity > 90% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of > 70%. The models were also compared with the 0 h arm of the European Society of Cardiology algorithm (ESC 0 h); An initial hs-cTnT < 5 ng/L for rule-out and ≥ 52 ng/L for rule-in. A convolutional neural network was the best model and identified 55% of the patients for rule-out and 5.3% for rule-in, while maintaining the required sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV levels. ESC 0 h failed to reach these performance levels.

DISCUSSION

An ML model based on age, sex, ECG and blood tests at ED arrival can identify six out of ten chest pain patients for safe early rule-out or rule-in with no need for serial blood tests. Future studies should attempt to improve these ML models further, e.g. by including additional input data.

Design and Manipulation of a Minimalistic Hydrocarbon Nanocar on Au(111)

Nanocars are carbon-based single-molecules with a precise design that facilitates their atomic-scale control on a surface. The rational design of these molecules is important in atomic and molecular-scale manipulation to advance the development of molecular machines, as well as for a better understanding of self-assembly, diffusion and desorption processes. Here, we introduce the molecular design and construction of a collection of minimalistic nanocars. They feature an anthracene chassis and four benzene derivatives as wheels. After sublimation and adsorption on an Au(111) surface, we show controlled and fast manipulation of the nanocars along the surface using the tip of a scanning tunneling microscope (STM). The mechanism behind the successful displacement is the induced dipole created over the nanocar by the STM tip. We utilized carbon monoxide functionalized tips both to avoid decomposition and accidentally picking the nanocars up during the manipulation. This strategy allowed thousands of maneuvers to successfully win the Nanocar Race II championship.

Offending Trajectories in Violent Offenders: Criminal History and Early Life Risk Factors

The understanding of offending, and thus its possible prevention, is expanded through longitudinal studies on criminal trajectories depicting early life risk factors. This longitudinal study aimed to explore criminal trajectories, criminal histories, and early life risk factors in a cohort of violent offenders. A Swedish nationally representative cohort of male violent offenders (n = 266), clinically assessed while imprisoned aged 18 to 25, was followed through national registers from age 15 to 25-34. Substantial differences in criminal histories between violent offenders and a matched comparison group (n = 10,000) were demonstrated. Five trajectory groups were identified: four persisting and one desisting. Although differences were observed between persisting trajectory groups, a higher prevalence of early life risk factors was generally displayed compared to the desisting, especially in conduct problems and experiences of out-of-home placements. Neurocognitive ability and prevalence of ADHD and autism were similar across trajectories. Severe early life risks highlight the population's need for early interventions.

Cystatin C-Based Equation to Estimate GFR without the Inclusion of Race and Sex

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of estimation of kidney function with the use of routine metabolic tests, such as measurement of the serum creatinine level, has been controversial. The European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) developed a creatinine-based equation (EKFC eGFRcr) to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with a rescaled serum creatinine level (i.e., the serum creatinine level is divided by the median serum creatinine level among healthy persons to control for variation related to differences in age, sex, or race). Whether a cystatin C-based EKFC equation would increase the accuracy of estimated GFR is unknown.

METHODS

We used data from patients in Sweden to estimate the rescaling factor for the cystatin C level in adults. We then replaced rescaled serum creatinine in the EKFC eGFRcr equation with rescaled cystatin C, and we validated the resulting EKFC eGFRcys equation in cohorts of White patients and Black patients in Europe, the United States, and Africa, according to measured GFR, levels of serum creatinine and cystatin C, age, and sex.

RESULTS

On the basis of data from 227,643 patients in Sweden, the rescaling factor for cystatin C was estimated at 0.83 for men and women younger than 50 years of age and 0.83 + 0.005 × (age - 50) for those 50 years of age or older. The EKFC eGFRcys equation was unbiased, had accuracy that was similar to that of the EKFC eGFRcr equation in both White patients and Black patients (11,231 patients from Europe, 1093 from the United States, and 508 from Africa), and was more accurate than the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFRcys equation recommended by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes. The arithmetic mean of EKFC eGFRcr and EKFC eGFRcys further improved the accuracy of estimated GFR over estimates from either biomarker equation alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The EKFC eGFRcys equation had the same mathematical form as the EKFC eGFRcr equation, but it had a scaling factor for cystatin C that did not differ according to race or sex. In cohorts from Europe, the United States, and Africa, this equation improved the accuracy of GFR assessment over that of commonly used equations. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council.).

Performance of creatinine-based equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate in White and Black populations in Europe, Brazil and Africa

BACKGROUND

A new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation without the race variable has been recently proposed (CKD-EPIAS). This equation has neither been validated outside USA nor compared with the new European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) and Lund-Malmö Revised (LMREV) equations, developed in European cohorts.

METHODS

Standardized creatinine and measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from the European EKFC cohorts (n = 13 856 including 6031 individuals in the external validation cohort), from France (n = 4429, including 964 Black Europeans), from Brazil (n = 100) and from Africa (n = 508) were used to test the performances of the equations. A matched analysis between White Europeans and Black Africans or Black Europeans was performed.

RESULTS

In White Europeans (n = 9496), both the EKFC and LMREV equations outperformed CKD-EPIAS (bias of -0.6 and -3.2, respectively versus 5.0 mL/min/1.73 m², and accuracy within 30% of 86.9 and 87.4, respectively, versus 80.9%). In Black Europeans and Black Africans, the best performance was observed with the EKFC equation using a specific Q-value (= concentration of serum creatinine in healthy males and females). These results were confirmed in matched analyses, which showed that serum creatinine concentrations were different in White Europeans, Black Europeans and Black Africans for the same measured GFR, age, sex and body mass index. Creatinine differences were more relevant in males.

CONCLUSION

In a European and African cohort, the performances of CKD-EPIAS remain suboptimal. The EKFC equation, using usual or dedicated population-specific Q-values, presents the best performance in the whole age range in the European and African populations included in this study.

Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest.

METHODS

We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications.

RESULTS

We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown.

CONCLUSIONS

We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period.

COVID-19 in people aged 18-64 in Sweden in the first year of the pandemic: Key factors for severe disease and death

Background

Studies on risk factors for severe COVID-19 in people of working age have generally not included non-working persons or established population attributable fractions (PAFs) for occupational and other factors.

Objectives

We describe the effect of job-related, sociodemographic, and other exposures on the incidence, relative risks and PAFs of severe COVID-19 in individuals aged 18-64.

Methods

We conducted a registry-based study in Swedish citizens aged 18-64 from 1 January 2020 to 1 February 2021 with respect to COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death.

Results

Of 6,205,459 persons, 272,043 (7.5%) were registered as infected, 3399 (0.05%) needed intensive care, and 620 (0.01%) died, with an estimated case fatality rate of 0.06% over the last 4-month period when testing was adequate. Non-Nordic origin was associated with a RR for need of intensive care of 3·13, 95%CI 2·91-3·36, and a PAF of 32·2% after adjustment for age, sex, work, region and comorbidities. In a second model with occupation as main exposure, and adjusted for age, sex, region, comorbidities and origin, essential workers had an RR of 1·51, 95%CI, 1·35-1·6, blue-collar workers 1·18, 95%CI 1·06-1·31, school staff 1·21, 95%CI 1·01-1·46, and health and social care workers 1·89, 95%CI 1·67-2·135) compared with people able to work from home, with altogether about 13% of the PAF associated with these occupations. Essential workers and blue-collar workers, but no other job categories had higher risk of death, adjusted RRs of 1·79, 95%CI 1·34-2·38 and 1·37, 95%CI 1·04-1·81, with adjusted PAFs of altogether 9%.

Conclusion

Among people of working age in Sweden, overall mortality and case fatality were low. Occupations that require physical presence at work were associated with elevated risk of needing intensive care for COVID-19, with 14% cases attributable to this factor, and 9% of deaths.

Standardization of serum creatinine is essential for accurate use of unbiased estimated GFR equations: evidence from three cohorts matched on renal function

BACKGROUND

Differences in the performance of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations have been attributed to the mathematical form of the equations and to differences between patient demographics and measurement methods. We evaluated differences in serum creatinine (SCr) and eGFR in cohorts matched for age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and measured GFR (mGFR).

METHODS

White North Americans from Minnesota (n = 1093) and the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) (n = 1548) and White subjects from the European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) cohort (n = 7727) were matched for demographic patient characteristics (sex, age ± 3 years, BMI ± 2.5 kg/m2) and renal function (mGFR ± 3 ml/min/1.73 m2). SCr was measured with isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS)-traceable assays in the Minnesota and EKFC cohorts and with non-standardized SCr assays recalculated to IDMS in the CRIC. The Minnesota cohort and CRIC shared a common method to measure GFR (renal clearance of iothalamate), while the EKFC cohort used a variety of exogenous markers and methods, all with recognized sufficient accuracy. We compared the SCr levels and eGFR predictions [for Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and EKFC equations] of patients fulfilling these matching criteria.

RESULTS

For 305 matched individuals, mean SCr (mg/dL) was not different between the Minnesota and EKFC cohorts (females 0.83 ± 0.20 versus 0.86 ± 0.23, males 1.06 ± 0.23 versus 1.12 ± 0.37; P > .05) but significantly different from the CRIC [females 1.13 ± 0.23 (P < .0001), males 1.42 ± 0.31 (P < .0001)]. The CKD-EPI equations performed better than the EKFC equation in the CRIC, while the opposite was true in the Minnesota and EKFC cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Significant differences in SCr concentrations between the Minnesota and EKFC cohorts versus CRIC were observed in subjects with the same level of mGFR and equal demographic characteristics and can be explained by the difference in SCr calibration.