Reflections on the impact of "flatten the curve" on interdependent workforce sectors

Changes in the Epidemiologic Pattern of Primary CNS Tumors in Response to the Aging Population: An Updated Nationwide Cancer Registry Data in the Republic of Korea

PURPOSE

Primary CNS tumors (PCNSTs) are tumors originating from the brain and surrounding tissues. These tumors account for a significant proportion of cancer deaths and morbidity globally. Accurate epidemiologic data are essential for shaping clinical practices, research priorities, and health care policies. This study presents the latest 2020 national data on PCNSTs from the Republic of Korea (ROK) and explores the trends in incidence and their societal implications in the context of an aging population.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional, observational study conducted using data sourced from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database by the Korea Central Cancer Registry. The study analyzed national data on PCNSTs in the ROK for the years 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2020.

RESULTS

In 2020, 15,568 new PCNST cases were diagnosed in the ROK. The overall crude rate was 30.32, and the age-standardized rate was 19.37 per 100,000 persons. A decade-long trend analysis revealed an increasing trend in newly diagnosed glioblastoma and lymphoma, and a decreasing trend in embryonal tumors, in relation to the aging population of the ROK.

CONCLUSION

This study shows the significant impact of demographic shifts on the epidemiologic patterns of PCNSTs in the ROK. Our findings emphasize the need for collaborative efforts to address the rising challenges posed by the changing incidence of PCNSTs related to an aging population.

Anti-pandemic resilience assessment for countries along the Belt and Road route

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping the world, and countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) route have also been hit hard. However, the impact varied greatly from country to country, some severely and others mildly. What factors have led to such a wide variation?

Method

In this paper, we considered institutional, infrastructural, economic, social, and technological resilience as components of overall anti-pandemic resilience, and constructed a set of indicators to evaluate this resilience for B&R countries in 2020. We evaluated the anti-pandemic resilience using the combined empowerment-VIKOR method, and classified the countries into different resilience levels by means of hierarchical clustering. The validity of the evaluation indicator system was verified by analyzing the consistency between the actual performance and the assessed resilience.

Results

The ranking results showed that Israel and Bahrain were representative of countries that had the highest resilience, Hungary and Estonia represented countries with moderate resilience, and Laos and Cambodia represented countries with the lowest resilience. We also found that countries with high resilience had much better institutional and economic resilience than countries with moderate resilience, whereas countries with low resilience lagged behind in both infrastructural and social resilience. Based on these findings, policy recommendations were offered to help B&R countries respond to future pandemics.

Evaluating the COVID-19 impact in Italian regions via multi criteria analysis

Italy was the first European country to be significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lack of similar previous experiences and the initial uncertainty regarding the new virus resulted in an unpredictable health crisis with 243,506 total confirmed cases and 34,997 deaths between February and July 2020. Despite the panorama of precariousness and the impelling calamity, the country successfully managed many aspects of the early stages of the health and socio-economic crisis. Nevertheless, many disparities can be identified at the regional level. The study aims to determine which aspects of regional management were considered more important by the citizens regarding economic and health criteria. A survey was designed to gather responses from the population on the Italian regions' response and provide a ranking of the regions. The 29-item online survey was provided to 352 individuals, and the collected data were analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. The results show a general agreement in considering of greater relevance the healthcare policies rather than the economic countermeasures adopted by regional governments. Our analysis associated a weight of 64% to the healthcare criteria compared to the economic criteria with a weight of 36%. In addition to the results obtained from the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the sample's composition was analyzed to provide an overall assessment of the Italian regions. To do so, we collected objective data for each region and multiplied them by the overall weight obtained for each sub-criteria. Looking at the propensity to vaccination or the belief in a relation between COVID-19 and 5G according to age and educational qualification helps understand how public opinion is structured according to cultural and anthropological differences.

A Comprehensive Overview of Education during Three COVID-19 Pandemic Periods: Impact on Engineering Students in Sri Lanka

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the education system in Sri Lanka, similar to many countries in the world. As a result, the mode of education shifted from conventional face-to-face classes to online mode. The main objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the changes to the educational system due to the COVID-19 pandemic among engineering undergraduates of Sri Lanka over three identified pandemic periods. Quantitative descriptive analysis was used together with chi-square statistics to answer the research questions using the data collected through a google survey from engineering undergraduates in Sri Lanka. According to the results, students’ attendance in online classes has improved over time compared to the initial pandemic period. Nearly 50% of students’ family income has been impacted, either stopped or reduced due to the pandemic. Most students have issues regarding computing devices, internet connectivity, and the home environment. According to the chi-square statistics results, few of these issues had a statistically significant relationship between the family income; lower the income, higher the negative impact on students. More than half of the students felt isolated when studying at home during the pandemic. Still, more than 50% of students agreed that lecturers were well prepared to guide and deliver lessons remotely. The overall recommendations of the study are implementing workshops, training on new technologies, awareness programs for educational stakeholders, providing incentives to purchase digital devices, and improving internet connectivity to improve the new standard education system of Sri Lanka.

Adopting a Global AMR Target within the Pandemic Instrument Will Act as a Catalyst for Action

Ensuring that life-saving antimicrobials remain available as effective treatment options in the face of rapidly rising levels of antimicrobial resistance will require a massive and coordinated global effort. Setting a collective direction for progress is the first step towards aligning global efforts on AMR. This process would be greatly accelerated by adopting a unifying global target - a well-defined global target that unites all countries and sectors. The proposed pandemic instrument - with its focus on prevention, preparedness and response - represents an ideal opportunity to develop and adopt a unifying global target that catalyzes global action on AMR. We propose three key characteristics of a unifying global target for AMR that - if embedded within the pandemic preparedness instrument - could rally public support, funding, and political commitment commensurate with the scale of the AMR challenge.

What containment strategy leads us through the pandemic crisis? An empirical analysis of the measures against the COVID-19 pandemic

Since January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak has been progressing at a rapid pace. To keep the pandemic at bay, countries have implemented various measures to interrupt the transmission of the virus from person to person and prevent an overload of their health systems. We analyze the impact of these measures implemented against the COVID-19 pandemic by using a sample of 68 countries, Puerto Rico and the 50 federal states of the United States of America, four federal states of Australia, and eight federal states of Canada, involving 6,941 daily observations. We show that measures are essential for containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. After controlling for daily COVID-19 tests, we find evidence to suggest that school closures, shut-downs of non-essential business, mass gathering bans, travel restrictions in and out of risk areas, national border closures and/or complete entry bans, and nationwide curfews decrease the growth rate of the coronavirus and thus the peak of daily confirmed cases. We also find evidence to suggest that combinations of these measures decrease the daily growth rate at a level outweighing that of individual measures. Consequently, and despite extensive vaccinations, we contend that the implemented measures help contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and ease the overstressed capacity of the healthcare systems.

Effective Communication at Different Phases of COVID-19 Prevention: Roles, Enablers and Barriers

In an age of globalisation and hyperconnectivity, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented and sustained impact worldwide. This article discusses issues related to (science) communication at different phases of the COVID-19 epidemic timeline. We consider the role of communication for prevention from the ecological perspective, taking into consideration that many emerging pathogens, including COVID-19, likely arise in part due to anthropogenic changes to natural environments. Communication forms part of the early response setting the scene for public buy-in of public health interventions at the start of an outbreak, as well as to maintain precautions over time. Finally, communication is a key element in increasing acceptance for new tools that require mass uptake to be effective, as seen with roll-out challenges for the COVID-19 vaccines, which faced heightened concerns of efficacy and safety while mired with rampant misinformation. Ultimately, strategies for prevention of viral epidemics such as COVID-19 must include communication strategies at the forefront to reduce the risk of the emergence of new diseases and enhance efforts to control their spread and burden. Despite key themes emerging, what constitutes effective communication strategies for different people and contexts needs to be investigated further.

The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world to implement unprecedented lockdowns, mandating businesses to shut down for extended periods of time. Previous studies have modeled the impact of disruptions to the economy at static and dynamic settings. This study develops a model to fulfil the need to account for the sustained disruption resulting from the extended shutdown of business operations. Using a persistent inoperability input-output model (PIIM), we are able to show that (1) sectors that suffer higher levels of inoperability during quarantine period may recover faster depending on their resilience; (2) initially unaffected sectors can suffer inoperability levels higher than directly affected sectors over time; (3) the economic impact on other regions not under lockdown is also significant.

Development of a Remote Psychological First Aid Protocol for Healthcare Workers Following the COVID-19 Pandemic in a University Teaching Hospital, Malaysia

The purpose of this article is to discuss the importance of addressing the psychological impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on healthcare workers (HCWs) who are frontliners directly involved in mitigating the spread of the disease. This paper focuses on the utilization of a clinical practice protocol for identifying HCWs who are COVID-19-positive or under investigation and surveillance for suspected infection, in a tertiary, university teaching hospital of Malaysia. The protocol for Psychological First Aid (PFA), which is applied remotely via a mobile application and phone calls, outlines the work process in stages, with expected immediate, intermediate, and long-term goals within a "Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Realistic Timeframe" (SMART). This protocol is developed to provide a guideline for psychological crisis interventions that promote safety, calm, and hope in HCWs, allowing them to return to psychological functioning without being stigmatized. The unprecedented remote PFA protocol may serve as a platform for further research on the application of a goal-directed approach in a healthcare organization.

Using input-output analysis to model the impact of pandemic mitigation and suppression measures on the workforce

The "flatten the curve" graphic has recently become a common tool to visualize the extent to which pandemic suppression and mitigation measures could potentially reduce and delay the number of daily infections due to a pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged the capacity of the many healthcare systems and created cascading economic impacts on interdependent sectors of the global society. This paper specifically explores the impact of pandemics on the workforce. The model proposed in this paper comprises of three major steps. First, sources for epidemic curves are identified to generate the attack rate, which is the daily number of infections normalized with respect to the population of the affected region. Second, the model assumes that the general attack rate can be specialized to reflect sector-specific workforce classifications, noting that each economic sector has varying dependence on the workforce. Third, using economic input-output (IO) data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, this paper analyzes the performance of several mitigation and suppression measures relative to a baseline pandemic scenario. Results from the IO simulations demonstrate the extent to which mitigation and suppression measures can flatten the curve. This paper concludes with reflections on other consequences of pandemics such as the mental health impacts associated with social isolation and the disproportionate effects on different socioeconomic groups.

Process integration for emerging challenges: optimal allocation of antivirals under resource constraints

ABSTRACT

The global scientific community has intensified efforts to develop, test, and commercialize pharmaceutical products to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Trials for both antivirals and vaccines are in progress; candidates include existing repurposed drugs that were originally developed for other ailments. Once these are shown to be effective, their production will need to be ramped up rapidly to keep pace with the growing demand as the pandemic progresses. It is highly likely that the drugs will be in short supply in the interim, which leaves policymakers and medical personnel with the difficult task of determining how to allocate them. Under such conditions, mathematical models can provide valuable decision support. In particular, useful models can be derived from process integration techniques that deal with tight resource constraints. In this paper, a linear programming model is developed to determine the optimal allocation of COVID-19 drugs that minimizes patient fatalities, taking into account additional hospital capacity constraints. Two hypothetical case studies are solved to illustrate the computational capability of the model, which can generate an allocation plan with outcomes that are superior to simple ad hoc allocation.