COVID-19 outbreak and Urban dynamics: regional variations in India

Dynamics of respiratory infectious diseases under rapid urbanization and COVID-19 pandemic in the subcenter of Beijing during 2014-2022

Objective

The study analyzed the impact of urbanization on epidemiological characteristics of respiratory infectious disease in Tongzhou District, Beijing during 2014-2022 to provide reference for prevention and control priorities of respiratory infectious diseases during the innovative urbanization process in China.

Methods

The incidence data of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases (NRIDs) in Tongzhou Beijing during 2014-2022 were summarized. The trend of incidence rate was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model, and entropy method was performed to construct the comprehensive index of urbanization (CIU) and generalized linear model was used to analyze the influence of CIU on the incidence rate of respiratory infectious diseases.

Results

Totally 72616 NRIDs cases were reported in Tongzhou District during 2014-2022, and the incidence rate of NRIDs was higher during 2017-2019 (153/100 000) than during 2014-2016 (930/100 000) and during 2020-2022 (371/100 000), respectively (both P < 0.001). The CIU constantly increased with slight fluctuation in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The incidence rate of NRIDs showed an increase along with the CIU during 2014-2019 (r = 0.95, P = 0.004), while the incidence rate's tendency was interrupted by COVID-19 during 2020 with slight decrease in 2020-2021 and rebounded in 2022. For the patients aged <15 years, the incidence rate of NRIDs revealed a very sharp rise at the urbanization period without COVID-19 pandemic compared with that under pre-urbanization period (RR = 7.93, 95 % CI 7.63-8.24), and dropped off to the similar level as of pre-urbanization period when COVID-19 pandemic spread.

Conclusions

Urbanization process may increase the incidence of NRIDs but constrained by COVID-19. Certain measures should be taken to prevent and control the effects by urbanization process, such as good natural environment with less population density, ecological environment with good air quality, promoted hand hygiene, mask wearing, keeping interpersonal distance, vaccination, media publicity for NRIDs' prevention and control.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection-Dependent Modulation in Vital Components of the Serum Profile of Severely SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients

Background

COVID-19 modulates many serological biomarkers during the progress of disease severity. The study aimed to determine COVID-19 severity-associated perturbance in the serum profile.

Methods

A retrospective study including COVID-19-positive individuals (n = 405) was accomplished. The serum profile of COVID-19 participants was mined from laboratory records. Severity-associated alteration in the serum profile was evaluated using Pearson correlation, regression, VCramer, Bayesian posterior VCramer, and bias factor using R-base-RStudio-version-3.3.0 with a significant cut-off of p < 0.05.

Results

Significantly different mean ± standard deviation (SD) (highly versus moderately severe) of C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), D-dimer, platelets, prothrombin time (PT), partial prothrombin time (PTT), troponin 1, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and AST/ALT ratio was observed (p < 0.001). Highly severe COVID-19 associated with CRP, ferritin, NLR, in D-dimer, PT, PTT, troponin 1, AST/ALT ratio, AST and ALT (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.346, 1.05, 1.46, 1.33, 1.42, 1.23, 4.07, 3.9, 1.24, 1.45, p < 0.001). CRP with ferritin (r = 0.743), NLR (r = 0.77), white blood cells (WBC) (r = 0.8), troponin1 with LDH (r = 0.757), and D-dimer with platelets (r = -0.81) were highly correlated. X2pearson (p < 0.001), VCramer (0.71), Bayesian-VCramer (0.7), and bias-factor (-125) for troponin 1 indicate the strong association of troponin 1 level and with COVID-19 severity. X2pearson (p < 0.001), VCramer (1), Bayesian-VCramer (0.98), and bias-factor (-266.3) for NLR exhibited a very strong association of pathologic conditions with the high severity of the disease.

Conclusion

These biomarkers of inflammation (CRP, Ferritin, NLR), coagulation disorders (D-dimer, PT, and PTT) cardiac abnormality (troponin 1), and liver injury (AST/ALT) could be crucial in low-medical resource settings as potential prognosticator/predictors of the COVID-19 severity and clinical outcomes. Moreover, the outcome of this study could be leveraged for the early prediction of disease severity during SARS-CoV or Middle East Respiratory Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection.

Geoepidemiological perspective on COVID-19 pandemic review, an insight into the global impact

The COVID-19 pandemic showed major impacts, on societies worldwide, challenging healthcare systems, economies, and daily life of people. Geoepidemiology, an emerging field that combines geography and epidemiology, has played a vital role in understanding and combatting the spread of the virus. This interdisciplinary approach has provided insights into the spatial patterns, risk factors, and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic at different scales, from local communities to global populations. Spatial patterns have revealed variations in incidence rates, with urban-rural divides and regional hotspots playing significant roles. Cross-border transmission has highlighted the importance of travel restrictions and coordinated public health responses. Risk factors such as age, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic factors, occupation, demographics, and behavior have influenced vulnerability and outcomes. Geoepidemiology has also provided insights into the transmissibility and spread of COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, super-spreading events, and the impact of variants. Geoepidemiology should be vital in understanding and responding to evolving new viral challenges of this and future pandemics.

Regional differences in health screening participation between before and during COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Health screening is a preventive and cost-effective public health strategy for early detection of diseases. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has decreased health screening participation. The aim of this study was to examine regional differences in health screening participation between before and during COVID-19 pandemic and vulnerabilities of health screening participation in the regional context.

METHODS

Administrative data from 229 districts consisting of 16 provinces in South Korea and health screening participation rate of each district collected in 2019 and 2020 were included in the study. Data were then analyzed via descriptive statistics and geographically weighted regression (GWR).

RESULTS

This study revealed that health screening participation rates decreased in all districts during COVID-19. Regional vulnerabilities contributing to a further reduction in health screening participation rate included COVID-19 concerns, the population of those aged 65+ years and the disabled, lower education level, lower access to healthcare, and the prevalence of chronic disease. GWR analysis showed that different vulnerable factors had different degrees of influence on differences in health screening participation rate.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could enhance our understanding of decreased health screening participation due to COVID-19 and suggest that regional vulnerabilities should be considered stringent public health strategies after COVID-19.

What have we learned about socioeconomic inequalities in the spread of COVID-19? A systematic review

This article aims to provide a better understanding of the associations between groups of socioeconomic variables and confirmed cases of COVID-19. The focus is on cross-continental differences of reported positive, negative, unclear, or no associations. A systematic review of the literature is conducted on the Web of Science and SCOPUS databases. Our search identifies 314 eligible studies published on or before 31 December 2021. We detect nine groups of frequently used socioeconomic variables and results are presented by region of the world (Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North American and South America). The review expands to describe the most used statistical and modelling techniques as well as inclusion of additional dimensions such as demographic, healthcare weather and mobility. Meanwhile findings agree on the generalized positive impact of population density, per capita GDP and urban areas on transmission of infections, contradictory results have been found concerning to educational level and income.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the morbidity of global Omicron from November 2021 to February 2022

The Omicron variant was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from South Africa on November 24, 2021; this variant is spreading rapidly worldwide. No study has conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of the morbidity of Omicron infection at the country level; hence, to explore the spatial transmission of the Omicron variant among the 220 countries worldwide, we aimed to the analyze its spatial autocorrelation and to conduct a multiple linear regression to investigate the underlying factors associated with the pandemic. This study was an ecological study. Data on the number of confirmed cases were extracted from the WHO website. The spatiotemporal characteristic was described in a thematic map. The Global Moran Index (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation, while the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were used to analyze the local spatial correlation characteristics. The joinpoint regression model was used to explore the change in the trend of the Omicron incidence over time. The association between the morbidity of Omicron and influencing factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression. This study was an ecological study. Data on the number of confirmed cases were extracted from the WHO website. The spatiotemporal characteristic was described in a thematic map. The Global Moran Index (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation, while the LISA were used to analyze the local spatial correlation characteristics. The joinpoint regression model was used to explore the change in the trend of the Omicron incidence over time. The association between the morbidity of Omicron and influencing factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The value of Moran's I was positive (Moran's I = 0.061, Z-score = 3.772, p = 0.007), indicating a spatial correlation of the morbidity of Omicron at the country level. From November 26, 2021 to February 26, 2022; the morbidity showed obvious spatial clustering. Hotspot clustering was observed mostly in Europe (locations in High-High category: 24). Coldspot clustering was observed mostly in Africa and Asia (locations in Low-Low category: 32). The result of joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend from December 21, 2021 to January 26, 2022. Results of the multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that the morbidity of Omicron was strongly positively correlated with income support (coefficient = 1.905, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.354-2.456, p < 0.001) and strongly negatively correlated with close public transport (coefficient = -1.591, 95% CI: -2.461 to -0.721, p = 0.001). Omicron outbreaks exhibited spatial clustering at the country level worldwide; the countries with higher disease morbidity could impact the other countries that are surrounded by and close to it. The locations with High-High clustering category, which referred to the countries with higher disease morbidity, were mainly observed in Europe, and its adjoining country also showed high spatial clustering. The morbidity of Omicron increased from December 21, 2021 to January 26, 2022. The higher morbidity of Omicron was associated with the economic and policy interventions implemented; hence, to deal with the epidemic, the prevention and control measures should be strengthened in all aspects.

Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic was spatially heterogeneous around the world; the transmission of the disease is driven by complex spatial and temporal variations in socioenvironmental factors. Spatial tools are useful in supporting COVID-19 control programs. A substantive review of the merits of the methodological approaches used to understand the spatial epidemiology of the disease is hardly undertaken. In this study, we reviewed the methodological approaches used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 and the socioeconomic, demographic and climatic drivers of such variations. We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of COVID-19 published in English from Embase, Scopus, Medline, and Web of Science databases from 1 January 2019 to 7 September 2021. Methodological quality assessments were also performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) risk of bias tool. A total of 154 studies met the inclusion criteria that used frequentist (85%) and Bayesian (15%) modelling approaches to identify spatial clusters and the associated risk factors. Bayesian models in the studies incorporated various spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal effects into the modelling schemes. This review highlighted the need for more local-level advanced Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling through the multi-level framework for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.

Spatiotemporal pattern of Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey

The earliest case of Covid-19 was documented in Wuhan city of China and since then the virus has been spreading throughout the globe. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clusters of Covid-19 among the provinces in Turkey and to examine whether the clustering pattern has changed after the country's lockdown strategy. The spatial dependence of Covid-19 in 81 provinces of Turkey was examined by spatial analysis between February 8 and June 28, 2021. Global and Local Moran's I and Gi* were employed to measure the global and local spatial autocorrelation degrees. The geographical distribution of Covid-19 in the provinces of Turkey showed a strong spatial autocorrelation while the spatial structure of the clusters varied by weeks. The findings of the study show that the complete lockdown carried out in Turkey has been quite effective in mitigating Covid-19. The importance of spatial relations in preventing the spread of the disease in Turkey has also been demonstrated in this context.

Strategies comparison in response to the two waves of COVID-19 in the United States and India

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare the prevention and control strategies adopted by the United States and India in the COVID-19 outbreak and analyze the effectiveness of their strategies, in order to provide empirical experience for the prevention and control of the epidemic.

METHODS

This study extracted official data on COVID-19 from various official websites, summarized the policies in place in the United States and India, and evaluated the effectiveness of their policies.

RESULTS

The United States has adopted a series of mitigation strategies to control the two waves of epidemic, including strengthening virus detection, calling on the people to wear masks and so on. As of May 30, 2021, although the daily new cases there decreased to some extent, the effect was not ideal. The US's daily new cases ranked fourth and the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranked first in the world. India has adopted containment strategies in the initial stage of the outbreak, making the epidemic relatively stable. In the later stage, India has turned to adopt mitigation strategies. In addition, many factors including the lack of medical resources and premature relaxation measures led to the rapid deterioration of the epidemic situation. As of May 30, 2021, although the daily new cases in India has a downward trend, it ranked first in the world, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranked second.

CONCLUSION

There are differences between the epidemic prevention strategies adopted by the United States and India, especially India's containment strategies which helped it better control the epidemic in the early stage. However, the epidemic in the two countries is still severe. With the advent of virus mutants and the absence of immune barriers, it is meaningful that the two countries continue to take non-pharmacotherapy intervention measures and accelerate vaccination, according to specific national conditions adopt containment strategies that can control the epidemic more quickly when necessary, and pay attention to the risk of epidemic rebound caused by premature relaxation of epidemic prevention policies.

Evolution of the pandemic: Analysis of demographic characteristics of COVID-19-infected patients during its two waves in Gwalior district of central India

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Factors that most expose countries to COVID-19: a composite indicators-based approach

Studies carried out in different countries correlate social, economic, environmental, and health factors with the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. However, such studies do not reveal which factors make one country more exposed to COVID-19 than other. Based on the composite indicators approach, this research identifies the factors that most impact the number of cases and deaths of COVID-19 worldwide and measures countries' exposure to COVID-19. Three composite indicators of exposure to COVID-19 were constructed through Principal Component Analysis, Simple Additive Weighting, and k-means clustering. The number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 is strongly correlated ( R  > 0.60) with composite indicator scores and moderately concordant ( K  > 0.4) with country clusters. Factors directly or indirectly associated with the age of the population are the ones that most expose countries to COVID-19. The population of countries most exposed to COVID-19 is 12 years older on average. The proportion of the elderly population in these countries is at least twice that of countries less exposed to COVID-19. Factors that can increase the population's life expectancy, such as Gross Domestic Product per capita and the Human Development Index, are four times and 1.3 times higher in more exposed countries to COVID-19. Providing better living conditions increases both the population's life expectancy and the country's exposure to COVID-19.

Propagation Analysis of COVID-19: An SIR Model-Based Investigation of the Pandemic

The paper investigates the spread pattern and dynamics of Covid-19 propagation based on SIR model. Using the model dynamics, an analytical estimation has been obtained for virus span, its longevity, growing pattern, etc. Experimental simulations are carried out on the data of four regions of India over a period of two months of country-wide lockdown. The analysis illustrates the effect of lockdown on the contact rate and its implication. Simulation results illustrate that there is a cut-down in effective contact rate by a considerable factor ranging from 2 to 4 for the selected regions. Further, the estimates for the vaccines to be developed, maximum range and span of the disease can be also estimated. Results portray that the SIR model is a significant tool to cast the dynamics and predictions of Covid-19 outbreak in comparison to other epidemic models. The study demonstrates the progression of real time data in accordance with the SIR model with high accuracy.

Community Preparedness and Practices for Prevention and Control of COVID-19 (COP-COVID): An Assessment from Rural Northern India

OBJECTIVES

The study assessed the community preparedness to manage the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and access to health-care services during the lockdown of 2020 in a rural health block of northern India.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted during June-July, 2020, in 25 villages and 5 wards of a rural administrative block of Haryana. A pretested, semi-structured investigator-administered checklist was used to assess the community preparedness and practices for COVID-19 prevention/control and health-care access through direct observations and interviewing community health workers and beneficiaries.

RESULTS

Active surveillance for influenza-like illness was carried out in 86.7% of the study units, although the frequency was once a month. There was poor adherence (adherence: 0-3%) to COVID-19 infection prevention and control (IPC) measures such as physical distancing and use of face masks. Rural beneficiaries reported difficulty in accessing essential health-care services than their urban counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

A qualitative study to understand the facilitators and barriers for the non-adherence to IPC measures by the study population and formulating behavior change communication strategies for improving the IPC measures is needed. Repeat, cross-sectional surveys at regular intervals may be planned to gauge the change and effect of the interventions on the community preparedness and practices.

Density or Connectivity: What Are the Main Causes of the Spatial Proliferation of COVID-19 in Korea?

COVID-19 has sparked a debate on the vulnerability of densely populated cities. Some studies argue that high-density urban centers are more vulnerable to infectious diseases due to a higher chance of infection in crowded urban environments. Other studies, however, argue that connectivity rather than population density plays a more significant role in the spread of COVID-19. While several studies have examined the role of urban density and connectivity in Europe and the U.S., few studies have been conducted in Asian countries. This study aims to investigate the role of urban spatial structure on COVID-19 by comparing different measures of urban density and connectivity during the first eight months of the outbreak in Korea. Two measures of density were derived from the Korean census, and four measures of connectivity were computed using social network analysis of the Origin-Destination data from the 2020 Korea Transport Database. We fitted both OLS and negative binomial models to the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients and its infection rates at the county level, collected individually from regional government websites in Korea. Results show that both density and connectivity play an important role in the proliferation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea. However, we found that the connectivity measure, particularly a measure of network centrality, was a better indicator of COVID-19 proliferation than the density measures. Our findings imply that policies that take into account different types of connectivity between cities might be necessary to contain the outbreak in the early phase.