The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Changes in stillbirths and child and youth mortality in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021.

METHODS

Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group.

RESULTS

Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels.

CONCLUSION

Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Effects of armed conflict on maternal and infant health: a mixed-methods study of Armenia and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war

INTRODUCTION

Armed conflict worldwide and across history has harmed the health of populations directly and indirectly, including generations beyond those immediately exposed to violence. The 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited by an ethnically Armenian population, provides an example of how conflict harmed health during COVID-19. We hypothesised that crises exposure would correspond to decreased healthcare utilisation rates and worse health outcomes for the maternal and infant population in Armenia, compounded during the pandemic.

METHODS

Following a mixed-methods approach, we used ecological data from 1980 to 2020 to evaluate health trends in conflict, measured as battle-related deaths (BRDs), COVID-19 cases, and maternal and infant health indicators during periods of conflict and peace in Armenia. We also interviewed 10 key informants about unmet needs, maternal health-seeking behaviours and priorities during the war, collecting recommendations to mitigate the effects of future crisis on maternal and infant health. We followed a deductive coding approach to analyse transcripts and harvest themes.

RESULTS

BRDs totalled more in the 2020 war compared with the previous Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. Periods of active conflict between 1988-2020 were associated with increased rates of sick newborn mortality, neonatal mortality and pre-eclampsia or eclampsia. Weekly average COVID-19 cases increased sevenfold during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Key informants expressed concerns about the effects of stress and grief on maternal health and pregnancy outcomes and recommended investing in healthcare system reform. Participants also stressed the synergistic effects of the war and COVID-19, noting healthcare capacity concerns and the importance of a strong primary care system.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal and infant health measures showed adverse trends during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, potentially amplified by the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate effects of future crises on population health in Armenia, informants recommended investments in healthcare system reform focused on primary care and health promotion.