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Romano D, Novielli P, Cilli R, Amoroso N, Monaco A, Bellotti R, Tangaro S. Air pollution and mortality for cancer of the respiratory system in Italy: an explainable artificial intelligence approach. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1344865. [PMID: 38774048 PMCID: PMC11106463 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1344865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Respiratory system cancer, encompassing lung, trachea and bronchus cancer, constitute a substantial and evolving public health challenge. Since pollution plays a prominent cause in the development of this disease, identifying which substances are most harmful is fundamental for implementing policies aimed at reducing exposure to these substances. We propose an approach based on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) based on remote sensing data to identify the factors that most influence the prediction of the standard mortality ratio (SMR) for respiratory system cancer in the Italian provinces using environment and socio-economic data. First of all, we identified 10 clusters of provinces through the study of the SMR variogram. Then, a Random Forest regressor is used for learning a compact representation of data. Finally, we used XAI to identify which features were most important in predicting SMR values. Our machine learning analysis shows that NO, income and O3 are the first three relevant features for the mortality of this type of cancer, and provides a guideline on intervention priorities in reducing risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Donato Romano
- Dipartimento di Scienze del Suolo, della Pianta e degli Alimenti Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
| | - Pierfrancesco Novielli
- Dipartimento di Scienze del Suolo, della Pianta e degli Alimenti Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
| | - Roberto Cilli
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
- Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, “M. Merlin” Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
| | - Nicola Amoroso
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
- Dipartimento di Farmacia Scienze, del Farmaco Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
| | - Alfonso Monaco
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
- Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, “M. Merlin” Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
| | - Roberto Bellotti
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
- Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, “M. Merlin” Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
| | - Sabina Tangaro
- Dipartimento di Scienze del Suolo, della Pianta e degli Alimenti Universita' degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Sezione di Bari, Bari, Italy
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Surface Ozone Pollution: Trends, Meteorological Influences, and Chemical Precursors in Portugal. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14042383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Surface ozone (O3) is a secondary air pollutant, harmful to human health and vegetation. To provide a long-term study of O3 concentrations in Portugal (study period: 2009–2019), a statistical analysis of ozone trends in rural stations (where the highest concentrations can be found) was first performed. Additionally, the effect of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and meteorological variables on O3 concentrations were evaluated in different environments in northern Portugal. A decreasing trend of O3 concentrations was observed in almost all monitoring stations. However, several exceedances to the standard values legislated for human health and vegetation protection were recorded. Daily and seasonal O3 profiles showed high concentrations in the afternoon and summer (for all inland rural stations) or spring (for Portuguese islands). The high number of groups obtained from the cluster analysis showed the difference of ozone behaviour amongst the existent rural stations, highlighting the effectiveness of the current geographical distribution of monitoring stations. Stronger correlations between O3, NO, and NO2 were detected at the urban site, indicating that the O3 concentration was more NOx-sensitive in urban environments. Solar radiation showed a higher correlation with O3 concentration regarding the meteorological influence. The wind and pollutants transport must also be considered in air quality studies. The presented results enable the definition of air quality policies to prevent and/or mitigate unfavourable outcomes from O3 pollution.
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Matasović B, Pehnec G, Bešlić I, Davila S, Babić D. Assessment of ozone concentration data from the northern Zagreb area, Croatia, for the period from 2003 to 2016. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:36640-36650. [PMID: 33704644 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-13295-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2020] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
A measurement station located in an urban area on the southern slope of the Medvednica Mountain (120 m a.s.l.), close to the Croatian capital Zagreb, provided data for an analysis of the photosmog in the city of Zagreb. Data for the period 2003-2016 obtained from this station and analysed in this work can also be compared with the nearby Puntijarka station (980 m a.s.l.) for which a similar analysis has already been carried out. In Puntijarka station analysis, it has been shown that there is most probably no significant change in ozone concentrations during the observed period. In this study the mean value of the annual ozone volume fractions showed a linear trend of 0.23 ppb yr-1, a growth that is in the worst case scenario among the lowest global prediction, while the seasonal (April-to-September) mean values had a trend of 0.32 ppb yr-1, which is a certain clearly observable growth. The 95-percentile values had trends of 0.009 ppb yr-1 (annual data) and -0.072 ppb yr-1 (seasonal data), respectively. Both of these values show very small changes if any at all. By using FT analysis, with the calculation of uncertainties, we have observed three prominent cycles of 169 ± 4 h (weekly cycle), 24 ± 1 h and 12 ± 1 h (diurnal cycles). Uncertainties were low which strongly indicate that the cycles are present. However, since high concentrations of ozone were observed only sporadically, ozone pollution in the northern part of Zagreb is at the present rather low. A Fourier transformation was used to analyse the data for periodic behaviour, which revealed the existence of diurnal and weekly modulations. Nevertheless, constant monitoring is important and will continue in the future as part of continuous monitoring of the ozone levels in the area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brunislav Matasović
- Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Ulica cara Hadrijana 8a, HR-31000, Osijek, Croatia.
| | - Gordana Pehnec
- Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Ivan Bešlić
- Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Silvije Davila
- Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Dinko Babić
- Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
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Sakizadeh M, Mohamed MM. Application of spatial analysis to investigate contribution of VOCs to photochemical ozone creation. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:10459-10471. [PMID: 31939025 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-07628-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This study was concerned with the temporal analysis of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEXs), and ozone in Rochester, New York, between 2012 and 2018. Additionally, the influence of ozone precursors (e.g., BTEXs and NO2) and meteorological variables (e.g., relative humidity (RH), temperature along with wind speed) on ozone dispersion was investigated in the eastern half of the USA using the integrated nested Laplace approximation and stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE). The benzene variability at seasonal scale was characterized by higher values during the cold seasons. On the contrary, the long-term temporal trend of ozone depicted a repetitive cyclic behavior while an episode, with values exceeding 5 μg/m3, was detected associated with benzene in 2015. The spatial analysis by INLA-SPDE indicated that 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene and benzene were the key ozone precursors influencing ozone formation. It was demonstrated that increase of temperature had a considerable impact on ozone build-up whereas the increment of RH leads to decrease in ambient values of ozone. The amounts of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and bias for the validation data (e.g., 32 samples) were 0.005, 0.004, and 0.0008, exhibiting a reasonable out-of-sample forecasting by the INLA-SPDE model. The distribution map of ozone highlighted a hot spot in the state of Florida.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Sakizadeh
- Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
- Faculty of Environment and Labour Safety, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
| | - Mohamed Mostafa Mohamed
- National Water Center, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
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Fung PL, Zaidan MA, Sillanpää S, Kousa A, Niemi JV, Timonen H, Kuula J, Saukko E, Luoma K, Petäjä T, Tarkoma S, Kulmala M, Hussein T. Input-Adaptive Proxy for Black Carbon as a Virtual Sensor. SENSORS 2019; 20:s20010182. [PMID: 31905686 PMCID: PMC6982708 DOI: 10.3390/s20010182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2019] [Revised: 12/23/2019] [Accepted: 12/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Missing data has been a challenge in air quality measurement. In this study, we develop an input-adaptive proxy, which selects input variables of other air quality variables based on their correlation coefficients with the output variable. The proxy uses ordinary least squares regression model with robust optimization and limits the input variables to a maximum of three to avoid overfitting. The adaptive proxy learns from the data set and generates the best model evaluated by adjusted coefficient of determination (adjR2). In case of missing data in the input variables, the proposed adaptive proxy then uses the second-best model until all the missing data gaps are filled up. We estimated black carbon (BC) concentration by using the input-adaptive proxy in two sites in Helsinki, which respectively represent street canyon and urban background scenario, as a case study. Accumulation mode, traffic counts, nitrogen dioxide and lung deposited surface area are found as input variables in models with the top rank. In contrast to traditional proxy, which gives 20-80% of data, the input-adaptive proxy manages to give full continuous BC estimation. The newly developed adaptive proxy also gives generally accurate BC (street canyon: adjR2 = 0.86-0.94; urban background: adjR2 = 0.74-0.91) depending on different seasons and day of the week. Due to its flexibility and reliability, the adaptive proxy can be further extend to estimate other air quality parameters. It can also act as an air quality virtual sensor in support with on-site measurements in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pak Lun Fung
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
- Correspondence: (P.L.F.); (T.H.); Tel.: +358-465678849 (P.L.F.); +358-503273837 (T.H.)
| | - Martha A. Zaidan
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
| | - Salla Sillanpää
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
| | - Anu Kousa
- Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority (HSY), P.O. Box 100, FI-00066 Helsinki, Finland; (A.K.); (J.V.N.)
| | - Jarkko V. Niemi
- Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority (HSY), P.O. Box 100, FI-00066 Helsinki, Finland; (A.K.); (J.V.N.)
| | - Hilkka Timonen
- Atmospheric Composition Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (H.T.); (J.K.)
| | - Joel Kuula
- Atmospheric Composition Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (H.T.); (J.K.)
| | | | - Krista Luoma
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
| | - Tuukka Petäjä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
| | - Sasu Tarkoma
- Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland;
| | - Markku Kulmala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
| | - Tareq Hussein
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00560 Helsinki, Finland; (M.A.Z.); (S.S.); (K.L.); (T.P.); (M.K.)
- Department of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
- Correspondence: (P.L.F.); (T.H.); Tel.: +358-465678849 (P.L.F.); +358-503273837 (T.H.)
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Willingness to Pay for Substituting Coal with Natural Gas-Based Combined Heat and Power in South Korea: A View from Air Pollutants Emissions Mitigation. SUSTAINABILITY 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/su10051554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Characterization of Surface Ozone Behavior at Different Regimes. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/app7090944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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He HD, Qiao ZX, Pan W, Lu WZ. Multiscale multifractal properties between ground-level ozone and its precursors in rural area in Hong Kong. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2017; 196:270-277. [PMID: 28288361 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2016] [Revised: 02/01/2017] [Accepted: 02/11/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
In rural area, due to the reduction of NOx and CO emitted from vehicle exhausts, the ozone photochemical reaction exhibits relatively weak effect and ozone formation presents different pattern with its precursors in contrast to urban situation. Hence, in this study, we apply detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the multifractal properties between ozone and its precursors in a rural area in Hong Kong. The observed databases of ozone, NO2, NOx and CO levels during 2005-2014 are obtained from a rural monitoring station in Hong Kong. Based on the collected database, the cross-correlation analysis is carried out firstly to examine the cross-correlation patterns and the results indicate that close interactive relations exist between them. Then the detrended cross-correlation analysis is performed for further analysis. The multifractal characters occur between ozone and its precursors. The long-term cross-correlations behaviors in winter are verified to be stronger than that in other seasons. Additionally, the method is extended on daily averaged data to explore the multifractal property on various time scales. The long-term cross-correlation behavior of ozone vs NO2 and NOx on daily basis becomes weaker while that of ozone vs CO becomes stronger. The multifractal properties for all pairs in summer are found to be the strongest among the whole year. These findings successfully illustrate that the multifractal analysis is a useful tool for describing the temporal scaling behaviors of ozone trends in different time series in rural areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-di He
- Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 200135, China.
| | - Zhong-Xia Qiao
- Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 200135, China
| | - Wei Pan
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Wei-Zhen Lu
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
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