Comparison of spatio-temporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and its mitigation strategies in China and the US

Predicting onset risk of COVID-19 symptom to support healthy travel route planning in the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2

Due to the increased outdoor transmission risk of new SARS-COV-2 variants, the health of urban residents in daily travel is being threatened. In the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2, how to avoid being infected by SARS-CoV-2 in daily travel has become a key issue. Hence, a spatiotemporal solution has been proposed to assist healthy travel route planning. Firstly, an enhanced urban-community-scale geographic model was proposed to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk by incorporating the real-time effective reproduction numbers, and daily population variation of fully vaccinated. On-road onset risk predictions in the next following days were then extracted for searching healthy routes with the least onset risk values. The healthy route planning was further implemented in a mobile application. Hong Kong, one of the representative highly populated cities, has been chosen as an example to apply the spatiotemporal solution. The application results in the four epidemic waves of Hong Kong show that based on the high accurate prediction of COVID-19 symptom onset risk, the healthy route planning could reduce people's exposure to the COVID-19 symptoms onset risk. To sum, the proposed solution can be applied to support the healthy travel of residents in more cities in the new normalcy.

Population density and SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Comparing the geography of different waves in the Netherlands

The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted public and scholarly debate about the relationship between infectious disease and the urban. Cities are considered contagious because they are hubs in (inter)national networks and contain high densities of people. However, the role of the urban and population density in the spread of pathogens is complex and is mediated by the wider bio-social environment. This paper analyses the role of population density in the outbreak of COVID-19 in the densely and highly urbanised context of the Netherlands. It compares the geography of the different phases in the epidemic and assesses when and where density plays a role. Using municipal data on the rate of infections and hospitalisations, this paper reveals that spatial patterns differ substantially in time, which does not appear to be simple diffusion. Using panel regressions, it is demonstrated that population density plays a role in those stages in which containment and mitigation measures were least strict, while in periods of lockdown other factors such as household size are associated with higher infection rates. It concludes that lockdowns may have greater effect in urban areas as key urban elements are temporarily cancelled out.

COVID-19 Related Early Google Search Behavior and Health Communication in the United States: Panel Data Analysis on Health Measures

The COVID-19 outbreak at the end of December 2019 spread rapidly all around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate and understand the relationship between public health measures and the development of the pandemic through Google search behaviors in the United States. Our collected data includes Google search queries related to COVID-19 from 1 January to 4 April 2020. After using unit root tests (ADF test and PP test) to examine the stationary and a Hausman test to choose a random effect model, a panel data analysis is conducted to investigate the key query terms with the newly added cases. In addition, a full sample regression and two sub-sample regressions are proposed to explain: (1) The changes in COVID-19 cases number are partly related to search variables related to treatments and medical resources, such as ventilators, hospitals, and masks, which correlate positively with the number of new cases. In contrast, regarding public health measures, social distancing, lockdown, stay-at-home, and self-isolation measures were negatively associated with the number of new cases in the US. (2) In mild states, which ranked one to twenty by the average daily new cases from least to most in 50 states, the query terms about public health measures (quarantine, lockdown, and self-isolation) have a significant negative correlation with the number of new cases. However, only the query terms about lockdown and self-isolation are also negatively associated with the number of new cases in serious states (states ranking 31 to 50). Furthermore, public health measures taken by the government during the COVID-19 outbreak are closely related to the situation of controlling the pandemic.

Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China

The emergence of different virus variants, the rapidly changing epidemic, and demands for economic recovery all require continual adjustment and optimization of COVID-19 intervention policies. For the purpose, it is both important and necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of different policies already in-place, which is the basis for optimization. Although some scholars have used epidemiological models, such as susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR), to perform evaluation, they might be inaccurate because those models often ignore the time-varying nature of transmission rate. This study proposes a new scheme to evaluate the efficiency of dynamic COVID-19 interventions using a new model named as iLSEIR-DRAM. First, we improved the traditional LSEIR model by adopting a five-parameter logistic function β(t) to depict the key parameter of transmission rate. Then, we estimated the parameters by using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which combines delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis samplers (DRAM). Finally, we developed a new quantitative indicator to evaluate the efficiency of COVID-19 interventions, which is based on parameters in β(t) and considers both the decreasing degree of the transmission rate and the emerging time of the epidemic inflection point. This scheme was applied to seven cities in Guangdong Province. We found that the iLSEIR-DRAM model can retrace the COVID-19 transmission quite well, with the simulation accuracy being over 95% in all cities. The proposed indicator succeeds in evaluating the historical intervention efficiency and makes the efficiency comparable among different cities. The comparison results showed that the intervention policies implemented in Guangzhou is the most efficient, which is consistent with public awareness. The proposed scheme for efficiency evaluation in this study is easy to implement and may promote precise prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Satisfaction differences in bus traveling among low-income individuals before and after COVID-19

Although all cities in China have promulgated public transportation control measures to choke off the spread of COVID-19, it also has brought severe changes to low-income individuals' bus traveling. However, the study focusing on satisfaction differences in bus traveling before and after COVID-19 is far under-researched, this paper therefore explored satisfaction differences among low-income individuals under socioeconomic attributes, traveling attributes, and psychological attributes by using the data consist of interviews addressed to 930 individuals in Taiyuan, China. Furthermore, the relationship between satisfaction levels and modes of traveling alone and traveling with companions by bus has also been deeply analyzed to reduce single-person driving problem. As a result, many exciting phenomena were discovered: the significant factors affecting low-income individuals' satisfaction occur "shift" on a large scale after COVID-19; risk concern has a significant positive impact on risk perception, but risk concern and risk perception have only a minor impact on satisfaction before and after COVID-19; it was found that there is a significant relationship between satisfaction levels and modes of traveling alone and traveling with companions by bus. Understanding them can be a reference for improving the travel environment between low-income individuals.

Hospital sewage treatment facilities witness the fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic

Real-time evaluation of the fighting activities during a sudden unknown disaster like the COVID-19 pandemic is a critical challenge for control. This study demonstrates that the temporal variations of effluents from hospital sewage treatment facilities can be used as an effective indicator for such evaluation. Taking a typical infection-suffering city in China as an example, we found that there was an obvious decrease in effluent ammonia and COD concentrations in line with the start of city lockdown, and its temporal variations well indicated the major events happened during the pandemic control. Notably, the lagging period between the change point of effluent residual chlorine and the change points of COD and ammonia concentration coincided with a period in which there was a deficiency in local medical resources. In addition, the diurnal behavior of effluents from designated hospitals has varied significantly at different stages of the pandemic development. The effluent ammonia peaks shifted from daytime to nighttime after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting a high workload of the designated hospitals in fighting the rapidly emerging pandemic. This work well demonstrates the necessary for data integration at the wastewater-medical service nexus and highlights an unusual role of the effluents from hospital sewage treatment facilities in revealing the status of fighting the pandemic, which helps to control the pandemic.

The relationship between active coping and hope during the COVID-19 pandemic: The mediating role of meaning in life

This study aims to examine the relationship between active coping and hope during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigate the underlying mechanism based on meaning making theory. We conducted a two-wave survey and recruited 521 Chinese adults (aged 18-65). Results show that all three active coping strategies (personal hygiene practice, support seeking, and positive reappraisal) at T1 was positively associated with T2 hope. Importantly, T2 meaning in life serves as a mediator between T1 active coping and T2 hope. Our findings suggest that active coping could be an effective approach to maintain mental health by making meaning and promoting hope.

Which Gridded Population Data Product Is Better? Evidences from Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA)

The release of global gridded population datasets, including the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Global Human Settlement Population Grid (GHS-POP), WorldPop, and LandScan, have greatly facilitated cross-comparison for ongoing research related to anthropogenic impacts. However, little attention is paid to the consistency and discrepancy of these gridded products in the regions with rapid changes in local population, e.g., Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), where the countries have experienced fast population growth since the 1950s. This awkward situation is unsurprisingly aggravated because of national scarce demographics and incomplete census counts, which further limits their appropriate usage. Thus, comparative analyses of them become the priority of their better application. Here, the consistency and discrepancy of the four common global gridded population datasets were cross-compared by combing the 2015 provincial population statistics (census and yearbooks) via error-comparison based statistical methods. The results showed that: (1) the LandScan performs the best both in spatial accuracy and estimated errors, then followed by the WorldPop, GHS-POP, and GPW in MSEA. (2) Provincial differences in estimated errors indicated that the LandScan better reveals the spatial pattern of population density in Thailand and Vietnam, while the WorldPop performs slightly better in Myanmar and Laos, and both fit well in Cambodia. (3) Substantial errors among the four gridded datasets normally occur in the provincial units with larger population density (over 610 persons/km2) and a rapid population growth rate (greater than 1.54%), respectively. The new findings in MSEA indicated that future usage of these datasets should pay attention to the estimated population in the areas characterized by high population density and rapid population growth.

Spatio-temporal characteristics and control strategies in the early period of COVID-19 spread: a case study of the mainland China

COVID-19 has caused huge impacts on human health and the economic operation of the world. Analyzing and summarizing the early propagation law can help reduce the losses caused by public health emergencies in the future. Early data on the spread of COVID-19 in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of mainland China except for Hubei, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were selected in this study. Spatio-temporal analysis, inflection point analysis, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics in the early COVID-19 spread. The results suggested that (1) the total confirmed cases have risen in an "S"-shaped curve over time, and the daily new cases have first increased and finally decreased; (2) the spatial distributions of both total and daily new cases show a trend of more in the east and less in the west, with a "multi-center agglomeration distribution" around Hubei Province and some major cities; (3) the spatial agglomeration of total confirmed cases has been increasing over time, while that of the daily new cases shows much more obvious in the mid-stage; and (4) timely release of the first-level public health emergency response can accelerate the emergence of the epidemic inflection point. The above analysis results have a specific reference value for the government's policy-making and measures to face public health emergencies.

Analysis on the spatio-temporal characteristics of COVID-19 in mainland China

COVID-19 has brought many unfavorable effects on humankind and taken away many lives. Only by understanding it more profoundly and comprehensively can it be soundly defeated. This paper is dedicated to studying the spatial-temporal characteristics of the epidemic development at the provincial-level in mainland China and the civic-level in Hubei Province. Moreover, a correlation analysis on the possible factors that cause the spatial differences in the epidemic's degree is conducted. After completing these works, three different methods are adopted to fit the daily-change tendencies of the number of confirmed cases in mainland China and Hubei Province. The three methods are the Logical Growth Model (LGM), Polynomial fitting, and Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN). The analysis results on the spatial-temporal differences and their influencing factors show that: (1) The Chinese government has contained the domestic epidemic in early March 2020, indicating that the number of newly diagnosed cases has almost zero increase since then. (2) Throughout the entire mainland of China, effective manual intervention measures such as community isolation and urban isolation have significantly weakened the influence of the subconscious factors that may impact the spatial differences of the epidemic. (3) The classification results based on the number of confirmed cases also prove the effectiveness of the isolation measures adopted by the governments at all levels in China from another aspect. It is reflected in the small monthly grade changes (even no change) in the provinces of mainland China and the cities in Hubei Province during the study period. Based on the experimental results of curve-fitting and considering the time cost and goodness of fit comprehensively, the Polynomial(Degree = 18) model is recommended in this paper for fitting the daily-change tendency of the number of confirmed cases.