1
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Lu W, Ren H. Diseases spectrum in the field of spatiotemporal patterns mining of infectious diseases epidemics: A bibliometric and content analysis. Front Public Health 2023; 10:1089418. [PMID: 36699887 PMCID: PMC9868952 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1089418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 12/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Numerous investigations of the spatiotemporal patterns of infectious disease epidemics, their potential influences, and their driving mechanisms have greatly contributed to effective interventions in the recent years of increasing pandemic situations. However, systematic reviews of the spatiotemporal patterns of communicable diseases are rare. Using bibliometric analysis, combined with content analysis, this study aimed to summarize the number of publications and trends, the spectrum of infectious diseases, major research directions and data-methodological-theoretical characteristics, and academic communities in this field. Based on 851 relevant publications from the Web of Science core database, from January 1991 to September 2021, the study found that the increasing number of publications and the changes in the disease spectrum have been accompanied by serious outbreaks and pandemics over the past 30 years. Owing to the current pandemic of new, infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) and the ravages of old infectious diseases (e.g., dengue and influenza), illustrated by the disease spectrum, the number of publications in this field would continue to rise. Three logically rigorous research directions-the detection of spatiotemporal patterns, identification of potential influencing factors, and risk prediction and simulation-support the research paradigm framework in this field. The role of human mobility in the transmission of insect-borne infectious diseases (e.g., dengue) and scale effects must be extensively studied in the future. Developed countries, such as the USA and England, have stronger leadership in the field. Therefore, much more effort must be made by developing countries, such as China, to improve their contribution and role in international academic collaborations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weili Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China,College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hongyan Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China,*Correspondence: Hongyan Ren ✉
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2
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Ahmad Zaki R, Xin NZ. Dengue Trend During COVID-19 Pandemic in Malaysia. Asia Pac J Public Health 2023; 35:62-64. [PMID: 36341513 PMCID: PMC9637901 DOI: 10.1177/10105395221134655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rafdzah Ahmad Zaki
- Centre for Epidemiology and
Evidence-based Practice, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of
Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,Department of Public Health, University
Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,Rafdzah Ahmad Zaki, Centre for Epidemiology
and Evidence-based Practice, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine,
Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
| | - Ng Zi Xin
- Centre for Epidemiology and
Evidence-based Practice, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of
Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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3
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Dengue Prediction in Latin America Using Machine Learning and the One Health Perspective: A Literature Review. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7100322. [PMID: 36288063 PMCID: PMC9611387 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7100322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Revised: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue fever is a serious and growing public health problem in Latin America and elsewhere, intensified by climate change and human mobility. This paper reviews the approaches to the epidemiological prediction of dengue fever using the One Health perspective, including an analysis of how Machine Learning techniques have been applied to it and focuses on the risk factors for dengue in Latin America to put the broader environmental considerations into a detailed understanding of the small-scale processes as they affect disease incidence. Determining that many factors can act as predictors for dengue outbreaks, a large-scale comparison of different predictors over larger geographic areas than those currently studied is lacking to determine which predictors are the most effective. In addition, it provides insight into techniques of Machine Learning used for future predictive models, as well as general workflow for Machine Learning projects of dengue fever.
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4
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Aguiar M, Anam V, Blyuss KB, Estadilla CDS, Guerrero BV, Knopoff D, Kooi BW, Srivastav AK, Steindorf V, Stollenwerk N. Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review. Phys Life Rev 2022; 40:65-92. [PMID: 35219611 PMCID: PMC8845267 DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2022.02.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. Mathematical models describing dengue fever epidemiological dynamics are found back from 1970. Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection caused by four antigenically related but distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection, it is a major international public health concern. Although most of the cases are asymptomatic or mild, the disease immunological response is complex, with severe disease linked to the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) - a disease augmentation phenomenon where pre-existing antibodies to previous dengue infection do not neutralize but rather enhance the new infection. Here, we present a 10-year systematic review on mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology. Specifically, we review multi-strain frameworks describing host-to-host and vector-host transmission models and within-host models describing viral replication and the respective immune response. Following a detailed literature search in standard scientific databases, different mathematical models in terms of their scope, analytical approach and structural form, including model validation and parameter estimation using empirical data, are described and analyzed. Aiming to identify a consensus on infectious diseases modeling aspects that can contribute to public health authorities for disease control, we revise the current understanding of epidemiological and immunological factors influencing the transmission dynamics of dengue. This review provide insights on general features to be considered to model aspects of real-world public health problems, such as the current epidemiological scenario we are living in.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Povo, Trento, 38123, Italy; Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
| | - Vizda Anam
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Konstantin B Blyuss
- VU University, Faculty of Science, De Boelelaan 1085, NL 1081, HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Bruno V Guerrero
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Damián Knopoff
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios de Matemática CIEM, CONICET, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000, Argentina
| | - Bob W Kooi
- University of Sussex, Department of Mathematics, Falmer, Brighton, UK
| | - Akhil Kumar Srivastav
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Vanessa Steindorf
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Povo, Trento, 38123, Italy
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5
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Surendran SN, Nagulan R, Sivabalakrishnan K, Arthiyan S, Tharsan A, Jayadas TTP, Raveendran S, Kumanan T, Ramasamy R. Reduced dengue incidence during the COVID-19 movement restrictions in Sri Lanka from March 2020 to April 2021. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:388. [PMID: 35209890 PMCID: PMC8866919 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-12726-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2021] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is the major mosquito-borne disease in Sri Lanka. After its first detection in January 2020, COVID-19 has become the major health issue in Sri Lanka. The impact of public health measures, notably restrictions on movement of people to curb COVID-19 transmission, on the incidence of dengue during the period March 2020 to April 2021 was investigated. Methods The incidence of dengue and COVID-19, rainfall and the public movement restrictions implemented to contain COVID-19 transmission were obtained from Sri Lanka government sources. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the monthly dengue incidence from March 2020 to April 2021 for each of the country’s 25 districts based on five years of pre-pandemic data, and compared with the actual recorded incidence of dengue during this period. Ovitrap collections of Aedes larvae were performed in Jaffna city in the Jaffna district from August 2020 to April 2021 and the findings compared with similar collections made in the pre-pandemic period from March 2019 to December 2019. Results The recorded numbers of dengue cases for every month from March 2020 to April 2021 in the whole country and for all 25 districts over the same period were lower than the numbers of dengue cases predicted from data for the five years (2015–2019) immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of dengue cases recorded nationwide represented a 74% reduction from the predicted number of dengue cases for the March 2020 to April 2021 period. The numbers of Aedes larvae collected from ovitraps per month were reduced by 88.6% with a lower proportion of Ae. aegypti than Ae. albopictus in Jaffna city from August 2020 until April 2021 compared with March 2019 to December 2019. Conclusion Public health measures that restricted movement of people, closed schools, universities and offices to contain COVID-19 transmission unexpectedly led to a significant reduction in the reported numbers of dengue cases in Sri Lanka. This contrasts with findings reported from Singapore. The differences between the two tropical islands have significant implications for the epidemiology of dengue. Reduced access to blood meals and lower vector densities, particularly of Ae. aegypti, resulting from the restrictions on movement of people, are suggested to have contributed to the lower dengue incidence in Sri Lanka. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12726-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- S N Surendran
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka.
| | - R Nagulan
- Faculty of Applied Science, University of Vavuniya, Vavuniya, Sri Lanka
| | - K Sivabalakrishnan
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - S Arthiyan
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - A Tharsan
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - T T P Jayadas
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - S Raveendran
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - T Kumanan
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
| | - R Ramasamy
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Jaffna, Jaffna, Sri Lanka.
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6
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Jayadas TTP, Kumanan T, Gomes L, Jeewandara C, Malavige GN, Ranasinghe D, Jadi RS, Ramasamy R, Surendran SN. Regional Variation in Dengue Virus Serotypes in Sri Lanka and Its Clinical and Epidemiological Relevance. Diagnostics (Basel) 2021; 11:2084. [PMID: 34829432 PMCID: PMC8618005 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics11112084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2021] [Revised: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a significant health concern in Sri Lanka, but diagnosis of the infecting dengue virus (DENV) serotype has hitherto been largely restricted to the Colombo district in the western province. Salinity tolerant Aedes vectors are present in the island's northern Jaffna peninsula, which is undergoing rapid groundwater salinization. Virus serotypes were determined by RT-qPCR in 107 and 112 patients diagnosed by NS1 antigen positivity from the Jaffna district in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and related to clinical characteristics. DENV1 and DENV2 were the most common serotypes in both years. Infections with multiple serotypes were not detected. DENV1 was significantly more prevalent in 2019 than 2018, while DENV3 was significantly more prevalent in 2018 than 2019 among the Jaffna patients. Limited genomic sequencing identified DENV1 genotype-I and DENV3 genotype-I in Jaffna patients in 2018. Dengue was more prevalent in working age persons and males among the serotyped Jaffna patients. DENV1 and DENV2 were the predominant serotypes in 2019 in the Colombo district. However, DENV1 and DENV3 were significantly more prevalent in Colombo compared with Jaffna in 2019. The differences in the prevalence of DENV1 and DENV3 between the Jaffna and Colombo districts in 2019 have implications for dengue epidemiology and vaccination. Salinity-tolerant Aedes vector strains, widespread in the Jaffna peninsula, may have contributed to differences in serotype prevalence compared with the Colombo district in 2019. Significant associations were not identified between virus serotypes and clinical characteristics among Jaffna patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Laksiri Gomes
- Centre for Dengue Research, Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda 10250, Sri Lanka; (L.G.); (C.J.); (G.N.M.); (D.R.)
| | - Chandima Jeewandara
- Centre for Dengue Research, Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda 10250, Sri Lanka; (L.G.); (C.J.); (G.N.M.); (D.R.)
| | - Gathsaurie N. Malavige
- Centre for Dengue Research, Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda 10250, Sri Lanka; (L.G.); (C.J.); (G.N.M.); (D.R.)
| | - Diyanath Ranasinghe
- Centre for Dengue Research, Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda 10250, Sri Lanka; (L.G.); (C.J.); (G.N.M.); (D.R.)
| | - Ramesh S. Jadi
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7290, USA;
| | - Ranjan Ramasamy
- Department of Zoology, University of Jaffna, Jaffna 40000, Sri Lanka;
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7
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Bravo de la Parra R, Sanz-Lorenzo L. Discrete epidemic models with two time scales. ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS 2021; 2021:478. [PMID: 34745241 PMCID: PMC8556850 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-021-03633-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could represent movements between spatial locations, changes of individual activities or behaviors, or others. To include a sufficiently general disease model, we first build up from first principles a discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) model and characterize the eradication or endemicity of the disease with the help of its basic reproduction number R 0 . Then, we propose a general full model that includes sequentially the two processes at different time scales and proceed to its analysis through a reduced model. The basic reproduction number R ‾ 0 of the reduced system gives a good approximation of R 0 of the full model since it serves at analyzing its asymptotic behavior. As an illustration of the proposed general framework, it is shown that there exist conditions under which a locally endemic disease, considering isolated patches in a metapopulation, can be eradicated globally by establishing the appropriate movements between patches.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Luis Sanz-Lorenzo
- Dpto. Matemática Aplicada, ETSI Industriales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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8
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Conceição GMDS, Barbosa GL, Lorenz C, Bocewicz ACD, Santana LMR, Marques CCDA, Chiaravalloti-Neto F. Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel Med Infect Dis 2021; 44:102149. [PMID: 34455075 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2020] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of reduced mobility due to this pandemic in the occurrence of dengue in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHOD It is an ecological study of time series, developed between January and August 2020. We use the number of confirmed dengue cases and residential mobility, on a daily basis, from secondary information sources. Mobility was represented by the daily percentage variation of residential population isolation, obtained from the Google database. We modeled the relationship between dengue occurrence and social distancing by negative binomial regression, adjusted for seasonality. We represent the social distancing dichotomously (isolation versus no isolation) and consider lag for isolation from the dates of occurrence of dengue. RESULTS The risk of dengue decreased around 9.1% (95% CI: 14.2 to 3.7) in the presence of isolation, considering a delay of 20 days between the degree of isolation and the dengue first symptoms. CONCLUSIONS We have shown that mobility can play an important role in the epidemiology of dengue and should be considered in surveillance and control activities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Gerson Laurindo Barbosa
- Endemics Control Superintendence (SUCEN), Sao Paulo State Department of Health, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Camila Lorenz
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
| | | | - Lidia Maria Reis Santana
- Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Professor Alexandre Vranjac" - Sao Paulo State Department of Health (CVE/SES-SP), Sao Paulo, Brazil; Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
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Schaber KL, Morrison AC, Elson WH, Astete-Vega H, Córdova-López JJ, Ríos López EJ, Flores WLQ, Santillan ASV, Scott TW, Waller LA, Kitron U, Barker CM, Perkins TA, Rothman AL, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Elder JP, Paz-Soldan VA. The impact of dengue illness on social distancing and caregiving behavior. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009614. [PMID: 34280204 PMCID: PMC8354465 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2020] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human mobility among residential locations can drive dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics. Recently, it was shown that individuals with symptomatic DENV infection exhibit significant changes in their mobility patterns, spending more time at home during illness. This change in mobility is predicted to increase the risk of acquiring infection for those living with or visiting the ill individual. It has yet to be considered, however, whether social contacts are also changing their mobility, either by socially distancing themselves from the infectious individual or increasing contact to help care for them. Social, or physical, distancing and caregiving could have diverse yet important impacts on DENV transmission dynamics; therefore, it is necessary to better understand the nature and frequency of these behaviors including their effect on mobility. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Through community-based febrile illness surveillance and RT-PCR infection confirmation, 67 DENV positive (DENV+) residents were identified in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Using retrospective interviews, data were collected on visitors and home-based care received during the illness. While 15% of participants lost visitors during their illness, 22% gained visitors; overall, 32% of all individuals (particularly females) received visitors while symptomatic. Caregiving was common (90%), particularly caring by housemates (91%) and caring for children (98%). Twenty-eight percent of caregivers changed their behavior enough to have their work (and, likely, mobility patterns) affected. This was significantly more likely when caring for individuals with low "health-related quality of well-being" during illness (Fisher's Exact, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our study demonstrates that social contacts of individuals with dengue modify their patterns of visitation and caregiving. The observed mobility changes could impact a susceptible individual's exposure to virus or a presymptomatic/clinically inapparent individual's contribution to onward transmission. Accounting for changes in social contact mobility is imperative in order to get a more accurate understanding of DENV transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn L. Schaber
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - William H. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Helvio Astete-Vega
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Jhonny J. Córdova-López
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Esther Jennifer Ríos López
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - W. Lorena Quiroz Flores
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | | | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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10
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Ong SQ, Ahmad H, Mohd Ngesom AM. Implications of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Dengue Transmission in Malaysia. Infect Dis Rep 2021; 13:148-160. [PMID: 33562890 PMCID: PMC7985789 DOI: 10.3390/idr13010016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2020] [Revised: 01/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
We aim to investigate the effect of large-scale human movement restrictions during the COVID-19 lockdown on both the dengue transmission and vector occurrences. This study compared the weekly dengue incidences during the period of lockdown to the previous years (2015 to 2019) and a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model that expected no movement restrictions. We found that the trend of dengue incidence during the first two weeks (stage 1) of lockdown decreased significantly with the incidences lower than the lower confidence level (LCL) of SARIMA. By comparing the magnitude of the gradient of decrease, the trend is 319% steeper than the trend observed in previous years and 650% steeper than the simulated model, indicating that the control of population movement did reduce dengue transmission. However, starting from stage 2 of lockdown, the dengue incidences demonstrated an elevation and earlier rebound by four weeks and grew with an exponential pattern. We revealed that Aedes albopictus is the predominant species and demonstrated a strong correlation with the locally reported dengue incidences, and therefore we proposed the possible diffusive effect of the vector that led to a higher acceleration of incidence rate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Song-Quan Ong
- CPUS, UOW Malaysia KDU Penang University College, 32, Jalan Anson, George Town 10400, Malaysia
- School of Computer Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor 11800, Malaysia
- Correspondence:
| | - Hamdan Ahmad
- Vector Control Research Unit, School of Biological Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor 11800, Malaysia;
| | - Ahmad Mohiddin Mohd Ngesom
- Faculty of Health Science, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda Abdul Aziz, Kuala Lumpur 50300, Malaysia;
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11
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Rahim MH, Dom NC, Ismail SNS, Mulud ZA, Abdullah S, Pradhan B. The impact of novel coronavirus (2019- nCoV) pandemic movement control order (MCO) on dengue cases in Peninsular Malaysia. One Health 2021; 12:100222. [PMID: 33553566 PMCID: PMC7845513 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2020] [Revised: 01/16/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
This study has highlighted the trend of recently-reported dengue cases after the implementation of the Movement Control Orders (MCOs) caused due to COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. The researchers used the dengue surveillance data published by the Malaysian Ministry of Health during the 3 phases of MCO (which ranged between 17th March 2020 and 28th April 2020) was used for determining the cumulative number of dengue patients. Thereafter, the dengue cases were mapped using the Geographical Information System (GIS). The results indicated that during the 42 days of MCO in Peninsular Malaysia, 11,242 total cases of dengue were reported. The daily trend of the dengue cases showed a decrease from 7268 cases that occurred before the MCOs to 4662 dengue cases that occurred during the initial 14 days of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., MCO I), to 3075 cases occurring during the MCO II and 3505 dengue cases noted during MCO III. The central peninsular region showed a maximal decrease in new dengue cases (52.62%), followed by the northern peninsular region (1.89%); eastern coastal region (1.25%) and the southern peninsular region (1.14%) during the initial MCO implementation. However, an increase in the new dengue cases was noted during the MCO III period, wherein all states showed an increase in the new dengue cases as compared during MCO II. The decrease in the pattern was not solely based on the MCO, hence, further investigation is necessary after considering different influencing factors. These results have important implication for future large-scale risk assessment, planning and hazard mitigation on dengue management. Dengue has been described as a “silent killer” amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The MCOs implemented by the Malaysian government to break the COVID-19 infection chain have positively affected the onset of new dengue cases. The highest reduction of new dengue cases were reported in the central peninsular region (52.62%), followed by the northern peninsular region (1.89%), eastern coastal region (1.25%) and the southern peninsular region (1.14%). New dengue cases increased during the MCO3 period, with the increase of reported dengue cases in all states in Peninsular Malaysia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Hafiz Rahim
- Centre of Environmental Health & Safety, Faculty of Health Sciences, UITM Cawangan Selangor, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 42300 Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Nazri Che Dom
- Centre of Environmental Health & Safety, Faculty of Health Sciences, UITM Cawangan Selangor, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 42300 Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia.,Integrated Mosquito Research Group (I-MeRGe), UITM Cawangan Selangor, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 42300 Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia.,Institute for Biodiversity and Sustainable Development (IBSD), Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Sharifah Norkhadijah Syed Ismail
- Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Zamzaliza Abd Mulud
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Centre of Nursing Studies, UITM Cawangan Selangor, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 42300 Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Samsuri Abdullah
- Faculty of Ocean Engineering Technology and Informatics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Biswajeet Pradhan
- The Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information System (CAMGIS), Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney 2007, NSW, Australia.,Department of Energy and Mineral Sources Engineering, Sejong University, Choongmu-gwan, 209, Neungdong-ro, Gwangin-gu, Seoul 05006, Korea.,Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdul Aziz University, P.O.Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
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12
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Seno H. An SIS model for the epidemic dynamics with two phases of the human day-to-day activity. J Math Biol 2020. [PMID: 32270285 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-020-01491-0/figures/13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
An SIS model is analyzed to consider the contribution of community structure to the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease. We focus on the human day-to-day activity introduced by commuting to a central place for the social activity. We assume that the community is classified into two subpopulations: commuter and non-commuter, of which the commuter has two phases of the day-to-day activity: private and social. Further we take account of the combination of contact patterns in two phases, making use of mass-action and ratio-dependent types for the infection force. We investigate the dependence of the basic reproduction number on the commuter ratio and the daily expected duration at the social phase as essential factors characterizing the community structure, and show that the dependence is significantly affected by the combination of contact patterns, and that the difference in the commuter ratio could make the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease significantly different.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiromi Seno
- Department of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Research Center for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
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13
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Seno H. An SIS model for the epidemic dynamics with two phases of the human day-to-day activity. J Math Biol 2020; 80:2109-2140. [PMID: 32270285 PMCID: PMC7139907 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-020-01491-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2019] [Revised: 03/13/2020] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
An SIS model is analyzed to consider the contribution of community structure to the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease. We focus on the human day-to-day activity introduced by commuting to a central place for the social activity. We assume that the community is classified into two subpopulations: commuter and non-commuter, of which the commuter has two phases of the day-to-day activity: private and social. Further we take account of the combination of contact patterns in two phases, making use of mass-action and ratio-dependent types for the infection force. We investigate the dependence of the basic reproduction number on the commuter ratio and the daily expected duration at the social phase as essential factors characterizing the community structure, and show that the dependence is significantly affected by the combination of contact patterns, and that the difference in the commuter ratio could make the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease significantly different.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiromi Seno
- Department of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Research Center for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
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14
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Schaber KL, Paz-Soldan VA, Morrison AC, Elson WHD, Rothman AL, Mores CN, Astete-Vega H, Scott TW, Waller LA, Kitron U, Elder JP, Barker CM, Perkins TA, Vazquez-Prokopec GM. Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007756. [PMID: 31545804 PMCID: PMC6776364 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2019] [Revised: 10/03/2019] [Accepted: 09/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Human mobility plays a central role in shaping pathogen transmission by generating spatial and/or individual variability in potential pathogen-transmitting contacts. Recent research has shown that symptomatic infection can influence human mobility and pathogen transmission dynamics. Better understanding the complex relationship between symptom severity, infectiousness, and human mobility requires quantification of movement patterns throughout infectiousness. For dengue virus (DENV), human infectiousness peaks 0–2 days after symptom onset, making it paramount to understand human movement patterns from the beginning of illness. Methodology and principal findings Through community-based febrile surveillance and RT-PCR assays, we identified a cohort of DENV+ residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru (n = 63). Using retrospective interviews, we measured the movements of these individuals when healthy and during each day of symptomatic illness. The most dramatic changes in mobility occurred during the first three days after symptom onset; individuals visited significantly fewer locations (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.017) and spent significantly more time at home (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.005), compared to when healthy. By 7–9 days after symptom onset, mobility measures had returned to healthy levels. Throughout an individual’s symptomatic period, the day of illness and their subjective sense of well-being were the most significant predictors for the number of locations and houses they visited. Conclusions/Significance Our study is one of the first to collect and analyze human mobility data at a daily scale during symptomatic infection. Accounting for the observed changes in human mobility throughout illness will improve understanding of the impact of disease on DENV transmission dynamics and the interpretation of public health-based surveillance data. Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide. Due to the limited mobility of the mosquitoes that transmit dengue virus, human mobility can be a key to both understanding an individual’s exposure to the virus and explaining the spread of dengue throughout a population. Accurate disease models should include human mobility; however, changes in human movement patterns due to the presence of symptoms need to be taken into account. We quantified the impact of symptom presence on human mobility throughout the infectious period by analyzing a dataset on the daily movements of dengue virus infected individuals. Accounting for these changing patterns of mobility will improve understanding of the complex relationship between symptom severity, human movement, and dengue virus transmission. Furthermore, dengue transmission models that incorporate symptom-driven mobility changes can be used to evaluate scenarios and strategies for disease prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn L. Schaber
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - William H. D. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Christopher N. Mores
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Helvio Astete-Vega
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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15
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Amaya-Larios IY, Rojas-Russell M, López-Cervantes M, Castro-Porras L, Castro-Borbonio MV, Sarti E, Puentes-Rosas E, Tirado-Gómez LL, Olaíz-Fernandez G, Ramos-Castañeda J. Seroprevalence of dengue in school children in Mexico ages 6-17 years, 2016. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2019; 112:223-229. [PMID: 29917129 PMCID: PMC6030845 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/try046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 05/03/2018] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is the most important arboviral disease in the world. Seroprevalence has been proposed as a marker of endemicity, however, studies are scarce. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional, stratified cluster, random sample study to measure the seroprevalence of antibodies to dengue virus (DENV) in Mexico. The target population was school children ages 6–17 y from 22 endemic states in Mexico, clustered in four regions: Pacific, South-Central, Southeast and Low. Results A total of 2134 subjects provided blood samples for immunoglobulin G antibody detection in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall, the seroprevalence of antibodies against DENV was 33.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.5 to 40.1). The Southeast had the highest regional seroprevalence, reaching 70.9% (95% CI 60.3 to 79.7). Seroprevalence was higher in older children in the Southeast region: 62.1% (95% CI 46.9 to 75.2) in children 6–8 y and 82.6% (95% CI 73.8 to 88.9) in 13–17 years old (y). However, this was not consistent in all regions. Seroprevalence was associated with dengue incidence. Conclusions DENV seroprevalence in Mexico was found to be heterogeneous at the country, regional and state levels. Seroprevalence was linked to long-term exposure and did not adequately reflect recent patterns of transmission, suggesting that utilization of a single epidemiological indicator to define endemic regions should be avoided.
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Affiliation(s)
- Irma Y Amaya-Larios
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica. Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Cuernavaca, Morelos. CP, Mexico
| | - Mario Rojas-Russell
- Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de Investigaciones en Politica, Poblacion y Salud, Mexico City, CP, Mexico
| | | | - Lilia Castro-Porras
- Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de Investigaciones en Politica, Poblacion y Salud, Mexico City, CP, Mexico
| | - Ma Victoria Castro-Borbonio
- Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de Investigaciones en Politica, Poblacion y Salud, Mexico City, CP, Mexico
| | | | | | - Laura L Tirado-Gómez
- Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de Investigaciones en Politica, Poblacion y Salud, Mexico City, CP, Mexico
| | - Gustavo Olaíz-Fernandez
- Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro de Investigaciones en Politica, Poblacion y Salud, Mexico City, CP, Mexico
| | - José Ramos-Castañeda
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica. Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Cuernavaca, Morelos. CP, Mexico.,Center for Tropical Diseases, University of Texas-Medical Branch, Center for Tropical Diseases, Galveston, Texas, USA
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16
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Barrios E, Lee S, Vasilieva O. Assessing the effects of daily commuting in two-patch dengue dynamics: A case study of Cali, Colombia. J Theor Biol 2018; 453:14-39. [PMID: 29775680 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.05.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2017] [Revised: 05/07/2018] [Accepted: 05/10/2018] [Indexed: 10/16/2022]
Abstract
There are many infectious diseases that can be spread by daily commuting of people and dengue fever is one of them. The absence of vaccine and irregularities in ongoing vector control programs make this disease the most frequent and persistent in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This paper targets to access the effects of daily commuting on dengue transmission dynamics by using a deterministic two-patch model fitted to observed data gathered in Cali, Colombia where dengue fever is highly persistent and exhibits endemo-epidemic patterns. The two-patch dengue transmission model with daily communing of human residents between patches (that is, between the city and its suburban areas) is presented using the concept of residence times, which certainly affect the disease transmission rates by inducing variability in human population sizes and vectorial densities at each patch. The same modeling framework is applied to two primary scenarios (epidemic outbreaks and endemic persistence of the disease) and for each scenario two coupling cases (one-way and asymmetric commuting) with different inflow and outflow intensities are analyzed. The concept of effective vectorial density, introduced in this paper, allows to explain in very simple terms why the daily commuting affects quite differently the dengue morbidity among human residents in both patches. In particular, residents of the patch with a greater share of incoming than outgoing commuters may actually "benefit" from inflow of daily commuter by avoiding a considerable number of infections. However, residents of the patch with a greater share of outgoing than incoming commuters, especially those who stay at home patch, incur more risk of getting infected. Additionally, the model shows that daily commuting enhance the total number of human infections acquired in both patches and may even provoke an epidemic outbreak in one patch while moderately lowering the level of the disease persistence in another patch.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edwin Barrios
- Department of Mathematics, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13 No. 100-00, Cali 760032, Colombia.
| | - Sunmi Lee
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University Kyung Hee, 1732 Deokyoungdaero, Giheung-gu,Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701, Republic of Korea.
| | - Olga Vasilieva
- Department of Mathematics, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13 No. 100-00, Cali 760032, Colombia.
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17
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Bichara D, Iggidr A. Multi-patch and multi-group epidemic models: a new framework. J Math Biol 2017; 77:107-134. [PMID: 29149377 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-017-1191-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2017] [Revised: 10/26/2017] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
We develop a multi-patch and multi-group model that captures the dynamics of an infectious disease when the host is structured into an arbitrary number of groups and interacts into an arbitrary number of patches where the infection takes place. In this framework, we model host mobility that depends on its epidemiological status, by a Lagrangian approach. This framework is applied to a general SEIRS model and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived. The effects of heterogeneity in groups, patches and mobility patterns on [Formula: see text] and disease prevalence are explored. Our results show that for a fixed number of groups, the basic reproduction number increases with respect to the number of patches and the host mobility patterns. Moreover, when the mobility matrix of susceptible individuals is of rank one, the basic reproduction number is explicitly determined and was found to be independent of the latter if the matrix is also stochastic. The cases where mobility matrices are of rank one capture important modeling scenarios. Additionally, we study the global analysis of equilibria for some special cases. Numerical simulations are carried out to showcase the ramifications of mobility pattern matrices on disease prevalence and basic reproduction number.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derdei Bichara
- Department of Mathematics and Center for Computational and Applied Mathematics, California State University, Fullerton, CA, 92831, USA.
| | - Abderrahman Iggidr
- Inria, Université de Lorraine, CNRS, Institut Elie Cartan de Lorraine, UMR 7502, ISGMP Bat. A, Ile du Saulcy, 57045, Metz Cedex 01, France
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Falcón-Lezama JA, Santos-Luna R, Román-Pérez S, Martínez-Vega RA, Herrera-Valdez MA, Kuri-Morales ÁF, Adams B, Kuri-Morales PA, López-Cervantes M, Ramos-Castañeda J. Analysis of spatial mobility in subjects from a Dengue endemic urban locality in Morelos State, Mexico. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0172313. [PMID: 28225820 PMCID: PMC5321279 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2016] [Accepted: 02/02/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Mathematical models and field data suggest that human mobility is an important driver for Dengue virus transmission. Nonetheless little is known on this matter due the lack of instruments for precise mobility quantification and study design difficulties. MATERIALS AND METHODS We carried out a cohort-nested, case-control study with 126 individuals (42 cases, 42 intradomestic controls and 42 population controls) with the goal of describing human mobility patterns of recently Dengue virus-infected subjects, and comparing them with those of non-infected subjects living in an urban endemic locality. Mobility was quantified using a GPS-data logger registering waypoints at 60-second intervals for a minimum of 15 natural days. RESULTS Although absolute displacement was highly biased towards the intradomestic and peridomestic areas, occasional displacements exceeding a 100-Km radius from the center of the studied locality were recorded for all three study groups and individual displacements were recorded traveling across six states from central Mexico. Additionally, cases had a larger number of visits out of the municipality´s administrative limits when compared to intradomestic controls (cases: 10.4 versus intradomestic controls: 2.9, p = 0.0282). We were able to identify extradomestic places within and out of the locality that were independently visited by apparently non-related infected subjects, consistent with houses, working and leisure places. CONCLUSIONS Results of this study show that human mobility in a small urban setting exceeded that considered by local health authority's administrative limits, and was different between recently infected and non-infected subjects living in the same household. These observations provide important insights about the role that human mobility may have in Dengue virus transmission and persistence across endemic geographic areas that need to be taken into account when planning preventive and control measures. Finally, these results are a valuable reference when setting the parameters for future mathematical modeling studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge Abelardo Falcón-Lezama
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - René Santos-Luna
- Subdirección de Geografía Médica, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Susana Román-Pérez
- Subdirección de Geografía Médica, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Ruth Aralí Martínez-Vega
- OLFIS, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
- Universidad de Santander, Campus Universitario, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
| | | | | | - Ben Adams
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom
| | | | - Malaquías López-Cervantes
- Unidad de Proyectos Especiales de Investigación Sociomédica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México
| | - José Ramos-Castañeda
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
- Center for Tropical Diseases, University of Texas-Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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