Predictors of Hospital Length of Stay in Patients with Exacerbations of COPD: A Cohort Study

Food Insecurity Status and Health Care Utilization Among COPD Patients: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Government programs-targeting chronic disease patients with high health care costs-focus on clinical conditions, factors internal to the health care system, and individual patient education, not on addressing modifiable social determinants of health to reduce health care utilization.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate differences in sociodemographic variables and health care utilization between patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who reported food insecurity and those who did not.

METHODS

This descriptive retrospective cross-sectional study used data from the electronic health records of a convenience sample of 854 participants with a discharge diagnosis of COPD or COPD with acute exacerbation, admitted via the emergency department of participating hospitals in Southern California. Chi-square (or Fisher's exact) tests and t tests were used to evaluate group differences, and multivariate (or Firth) logistic regression to identify factors that increased the odds of emergency department visits and hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Significant differences between groups were identified for food insecurity (sometimes or often vs never insecure) and age (P < .001), race (P = .022), medical insurance (P < .001), zip code (P = .022), homeless status (P < .001), smoking status (P < .001), and emergency department visits (P = .033). No significant differences were found for food insecurity and hospitalizations (P = .592).

CONCLUSION

This study contributes to the growing body of research supporting the association of upstream social factors (food insecurity, homelessness, zip code) and downstream health outcomes (repeated emergency room visits), and how existing programs can be effectively utilized to impact downstream health outcomes such as health care utilization.

Efficacy and safety of Supine Daoyin in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A randomized controlled trial

AIM

This study aimed to develop and evaluate the efficacy and safety of Supine Daoyin, a TCM PR technique, in hospitalized patients with AECOPD.

METHODS

This is a multicenter, prospective, randomized, controlled trial involving AECOPD inpatients recruited from April 2021 to December 2023 in five tertiary hospitals in China. Participants were randomly assigned to 14 days of Supine Daoyin group or control group and evaluated at days 3, 7, and 14 (posttreatment). The primary outcomes were LOS and CCQ and secondary outcomes were 6MWD, 30-STS, BI, Borg CR10, time on mechanical ventilation, SGRQ, mCOPD-PRO, and mESQ-COPD.

RESULTS

Out of 369 participants screened, 228 were randomly assigned (Supine Daoyin group: n = 114; control group: n = 114). For primary outcomes, there was no significant between-group difference in LOS (p > 0.05), but for CCQ the Supine Daoyin was superior to control at days 7 (p < 0.01) and 14 (p < 0.01). For secondary outcomes, Supine Daoyin groups showed robust and superior improvements in 6MWD, 30-STS, BI, Borg CR10, SGRQ, mCOPD-PRO, and mESQ-COPD (all p < 0.05), but for time on mechanical ventilation there was no significant difference in two groups (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Supine Daoyin, a novel TCM PR technique, demonstrates safety and efficacy for AECOPD inpatients, yielding clinically meaningful improvements in health status, exercise capacity, and quality of life. This study offers a viable PR option for AECOPD patients with severe symptoms and limited mobility.

Predictors of Length of Stay, Mortality and Rehospitalization in COPD Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a highly prevalent chronic lung disease that has a significant impact on individuals and healthcare systems worldwide. This study aimed to identify factors that predict the length of a hospital stay (LOHS), one-year mortality, and rehospitalization within 6 months in patients admitted for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD). A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from 170 patients admitted to a district general hospital in Switzerland between January 2019 and February 2020. Sociodemographic and health-related variables measured at admission were analyzed as potential predictors. Multivariable zero-truncated negative binomial and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for LOHS (primary endpoint), mortality, and rehospitalization. The results show that an indication for oxygen supplementation was the only significant predictor of LOHS. In the logistic regression analysis, older age, COPD severity stages GOLD III and IV, active cancer and arrhythmias were associated with higher mortality, whereas rehabilitation after discharge was associated with lower mortality. There were no significant associations regarding rehospitalization. This study identified routinely available predictors for LOHS and mortality, which may further advance our understanding of AECOPD and thereby improve patient management, discharge planning, and hospital costs. The protective effect of rehabilitation after hospitalization regarding lower mortality warrants further confirmation and may improve the comprehensive management of patients with AECOPD.

A risk nomogram for predicting prolonged intensive care unit stays in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Providing intensive care is increasingly expensive, and the aim of this study was to construct a risk column line graph (nomograms)for prolonged length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

This study included 4,940 patients, and the data set was randomly divided into training (n = 3,458) and validation (n = 1,482) sets at a 7:3 ratio. First, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection by running a tenfold k-cyclic coordinate descent. Second, a prediction model was constructed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis. Third, the model was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, calibration plots, and decision-curve analysis (DCA), and was further internally validated.

Results

This study selected 11 predictors: sepsis, renal replacement therapy, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory failure, ventilator associated pneumonia, norepinephrine, bronchodilators, invasive mechanical ventilation, electrolytes disorders, Glasgow Coma Scale score and body temperature. The models constructed using these 11 predictors indicated good predictive power, with the areas under the ROC curves being 0.826 (95%CI, 0.809-0.842) and 0.827 (95%CI, 0.802-0.853) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a strong agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities in the training (χ² = 8.21, p = 0.413) and validation (χ² = 0.64, p = 0.999) sets. In addition, decision-curve analysis suggested that the model had good clinical validity.

Conclusion

This study has constructed and validated original and dynamic nomograms for prolonged ICU stay in patients with COPD using 11 easily collected parameters. These nomograms can provide useful guidance to medical and nursing practitioners in ICUs and help reduce the disease and economic burdens on patients.

Risk Factors for Length of Hospital Stay in Acute Exacerbation Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study

Background/Purpose

Patients and Methods

Results

Conclusion

A Risk Prediction Model for Prolonged Length of Stay in Patients with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Retrospective Study of 225 Patients in a Single Center in Kunming, China

Background

We aimed to develop an effective prediction model of prolonged length of stay (LOS) in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Material/Methods

We systematically enrolled 225 patients admitted for AECOPD to our hospital and divided them into a normal LOS group (≤7 days) and prolonged LOS group (>7 days). To analyze differences in laboratory data at different times, 3 logistic regression models were established. To develop the prediction model, all variables with statistical significance were included in the model. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate discrimination, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the calibration of the model.

Results

Factors found to be independently associated with the increased risk of prolonged LOS included the use of corticosteroids during hospitalization, elevated HCO₃⁻, decreased pH, and reductions in platelets (PLTs) and procalcitonin (PCT) between the fourth and first day of hospitalization. The risk prediction model including these factors had an AUC of 0.795, suggesting the good discrimination of our model. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also showed good calibration of the model, which confirmed its good predictive performance.

Conclusions

A clinical prediction model was developed with good predictive performance, which could help clinicians identify patients with a higher risk of prolonged LOS, help shorten hospital stay, reduce the disease burden of patients, and improve the outcomes of AECOPD.

Impact of Potentially Unwarranted Intravenous Antibiotics Targeting Pulmonary Infections in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) can present similarly to pulmonary infections. The additional volume and sodium received from intravenous antibiotics (IVAB) can be counterproductive, especially when strong evidence of infection is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the impact of potentially unwarranted IVAB on clinical outcomes in patients with ADHF.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective, cohort study evaluated adults admitted with ADHF, a chest radiograph within 24 hours, B-natriuretic peptide >100 pg/mL, and either received no IVAB or IVAB for at least 48 hours. Subjects with recent antibiotics, justification for antibiotics, or transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 24 hours of admission were excluded. The primary outcome was hospital length of stay (LOS). Secondary outcomes included utilization of loop diuretics, administration of fluid and sodium, mortality, and 30-day readmissions.

RESULTS

Out of 240 subjects included, 120 received IVAB. LOS was significantly longer in the IVAB group (5.12 days vs 3.73 days; P < .001). LOS remained significantly longer in the IVAB group in a propensity score matched cohort (5.26 days vs 3.70 days; P < .001). The IVAB group received more volume and sodium from intravenous fluids (P < .001). ICU admission greater than 24 hours after admission was higher with IVAB (20% vs 7.5%; P = .049). No significant differences in total loop diuretics, intubation rate, mortality, and 30-day readmissions were identified.

CONCLUSION

ADHF patients who received potentially unwarranted IVAB had longer hospital LOS and were more likely to be admitted to the ICU after 24 hours of hospitalization.

The role of elevated red blood cell distribution width in the prognosis of AECOPD patients: A retrospective study

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is still a constant threat to people's health. We aimed to identify the relationship between increased red cell distribution width (RDW) on admission and length of hospitalization in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients (AECOPD).Patients with AECOPD were recruited and divided into 3 groups based on RDW tertiles.Two hundred eighty six patients with AECOPD admitted to our department during January 1, 2017 and June 30, 2019 were enrolled in the study. According to the RDW tertiles (≤12.8%, 12.9% to 13.6%, >13.6%), the patients were divided into 3 groups. Length of stay was significantly related to RDW (P < .001) in AECOPD patients. Correlation analysis indicated that RDW was negatively associated with FEV1% predicted (r = -0.142, P = .016). However, RDW was positively associated with prolonged of stay (r = 0.298, P < .001) in AECOPD patients. Multivariate regression analysis discovered that RDW was independently associated with the length of hospitalization (P = .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed that RDW was a good predictor of prolonged hospital stay in AECOPD patients, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.818 (95% CI: 0.769-0.868). The highest sensitivity to predict prolonged hospital stay was 83.8% and the specificity was 71.6% with the cut-off 13.35%.In conclusion, prolonged hospital stay in AECOPD patients was closely associated with increased RDW. Elevated RDW may be an independent predictor for prolonged hospitalization in AECOPD patients.

Factors associated with inpatient length of stay among hospitalised patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, China, 2016-2017: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

To identify factors associated with length of stay (LOS) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalised patients, which may help shorten LOS and reduce economic burden accrued over hospital stay.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

This study was performed in a tertiary hospital in China.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COPD who were aged ≥40 years and newly admitted between 2016 and 2017.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

LOS at initial admission was the primary outcome and health expenditures were the secondary outcome. To identify factors associated with LOS, we collected information at index hospitalisation and constructed a conceptual model using directed acyclic graph. Potential factors were classified into five groups: demographic information, disease severity, comorbidities, hospital admission and environmental factors. Negative binomial regression model was fitted for each block of factors and a parsimonious analysis was performed.

RESULTS

In total, we analysed 565 patients with COPD. The mean age was 69±11 years old and 69.4% were men. The median LOS was 10 (interquartile range 8-14) days. LOS was significantly longer in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) (16 vs 10 days, p=0.0002) or with osteoporosis (15 vs 10 days, p=0.0228). VTE ((rate ratio) RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.76), hypoxic-hypercarbic encephalopathy (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.20), respiratory infection (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24), osteoporosis (RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.96) and emergence admission (RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.16) were associated with longer LOS. In parsimonious analysis, all these factors remained significant except emergency admission, highlighting the important role of concomitant morbidities in patients' hospital stay. Total hospitalisation cost and patients' out-of-pocket cost increased monotonically with LOS (both p_trend <0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Patients' concomitant morbidities predicted excessive LOS in patients with COPD. Healthcare cost increased over the LOS. Quality improvement initiatives may need to identify patients at high risk for lengthy stay and implement early interventions to reduce COPD economic burden.

The Frequency of, and Factors Associated with Prolonged Hospitalization: A Multicentre Study in Victoria, Australia

Background: Limited available evidence suggests that a small proportion of inpatients undergo prolonged hospitalization and use a disproportionate number of bed days. Understanding the factors contributing to prolonged hospitalization may improve patient care and reduce the length of stay in such patients. Methods: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of adult (≥20 years) patients admitted for at least 24 h between 14 November 2016 and 14 November 2018 to hospitals in Victoria, Australia. Data including baseline demographics, admitting specialty, survival status and discharge disposition were obtained from the Victorian Admission Episode Dataset. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with prolonged hospitalization (≥14 days). Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to examine the association between various factors and in-hospital mortality. Results: There were almost 5 million hospital admissions over two years. After exclusions, 1,696,112 admissions lasting at least 24 h were included. Admissions with prolonged hospitalization comprised only 9.7% of admissions but utilized 44.2% of all hospital bed days. Factors independently associated with prolonged hospitalization included age, female gender, not being in a relationship, being a current smoker, level of co-morbidity, admission from another hospital, admission on the weekend, and the number of admissions in the prior 12 months. The in-hospital mortality rate was 5.0% for those with prolonged hospitalization compared with 1.8% in those without (p < 0.001). Prolonged hospitalization was also independently associated with a decreased likelihood of being discharged to home (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.52–0.54). Conclusions: Patients experiencing prolonged hospitalization utilize a disproportionate proportion of bed days and are at higher risk of in-hospital death and discharge to destinations other than home. Further studies are required to identify modifiable factors contributing to prolonged hospitalization as well as the quality of end-of-life care in such admissions.

End-of-Life Spending and Healthcare Utilization Among Older Adults with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

BACKGROUND

End-of-life spending and healthcare utilization among older adults with COPD have not been previously described.

METHODS

We examined data on Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who died during the period of 2013-2014. End-of-life measures were retrospectively reviewed for 2 years prior to death. Hospital referral regions (HRRs) were categorized into quintiles of age-sex-race-adjusted overall spending during the last 2 years of life. Geographic quintile variation in spending and healthcare utilization was examined across the continuum.

RESULTS

We investigated data on 146,240 decedents with COPD from 306 HRRs. Age-sex-race-adjusted overall spending per decedent during the last 2 years of life varied significantly nationwide ($61,271±$11,639 per decedent; range: $48,288±$3,665 to $79,453±$9,242). Inpatient care accounted for 40.2% of spending ($24,626±$6,192 per decedent). Overall, 82%±4% of decedents were admitted to the hospital for 13.7±3.1 days, and 55%±11% were admitted to an intensive care unit for 5.4±2.5 days. Compared with HRRs in the lowest spending quintile, HRRs in the highest spending quintile had a 1.5-fold longer hospital length of stay. Skilled nursing facilities accounted for 11.6% of spending ($7101±$2403 per decedent), and these facilities were utilized by 38%±7% of decedents for 18.7±4.9 days. Hospice accounted for 10.3% of spending ($6,307±$2,201 per decedent) and was utilized by 47%±9% of decedents for 39.7±14.8 days. Significant geographic variation in hospice utilization existed nationwide.

CONCLUSIONS

End-of-life spending and healthcare utilization among older adults with COPD varied substantially nationwide. Decedents with COPD frequently utilized acute care near the end of life. Hospice utilization was higher than expected, with significant geographic disparities.

How may we improve clinical outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease? A narrative review about possible therapeutic and preventive strategies

Introduction: In a subset of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)patients the course of the disease is complicated by a severe acute exacerbations (AECOPD) that may require hospitalization, at which time negative outcomes may occur up to 30 days after discharge. Several predictors of negative outcomes have been documented.Areas covered: We considered five negative outcomes related to patients hospitalized with AECOPD: treatment failure, noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) failure, prolonged length of hospital stay (LHS), short-term mortality (≤ 90 days from admission and including the in-hospital mortality), and early readmission (≤30 days from discharge). Possible therapeutic and preventive strategies to improve these outcomes are outlined and discussed.Expert opinion: Several strategies have been proposed to improve outcomes. Among these, steroid or antibiotic use may reduce the risks of treatment failure or of prolonged hospital stay. We note that operator-related factors may influence the outcome of NIMV. However, little has been documented about the short-term mortality or early readmission rates. In general, few interventions consistently improve negative outcomes and prognosis of AECOPD.

Economic impact and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease outcomes of a comprehensive inhaler to nebulization therapy protocol implementation in a large multi-state healthcare system

Objective: There are currently 39 FDA-approved metered-dose (MDI) or dry-powder inhalers (DPI) on the US market. Most are high cost with significantly more drug in the device than needed for a typical average length of stay in acute care hospitals, which leads to significant waste. The objective was to assess the financial impact and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes of a comprehensive inhaler to nebulization protocol implemented in a large multi-state US health system. Methods: The retrospective study evaluated respiratory drug costs at 28 hospitals in the health system after a phased implementation of the automatic inhaler to nebulization protocol. Purchasing data was collected for all respiratory medications impacted by the protocol for the twelve months preceding as well as the two subsequent twelve-month periods following implementation at each facility. COPD length of stay (LOS) and 30 day readmissions were also reviewed. An attempt was made to evaluate the impact on respiratory therapy (RT) department workload. Results: Compared to pre-implementation, system-wide drug expenditures declined $1,561,011 (38.5%) and $1,646,411 (40.6%) in post-implementation year 1 (PY1) and post-implementation year 2 (PY2), respectively. COPD LOS and 30 day readmissions were not adversely affected and remained relatively stable in comparative periods. Objective impact on RT productivity and labor statistics was not ascertained due to complicated variables and multiple service lines. Conclusions: In an era of increased drug costs incurred by hospitals, a comprehensive inhaler to nebulization protocol significantly decreased costs without incurring any negative observed trends in COPD LOS or readmissions.

Social and clinical predictors associated with prolonged hospital stays for patients with severe exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there are social factors that affect the prolonged hospital stay (PHS) of patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation (COPDE), as well as clinical-demographic factors.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a prospective cohort study that consecutively included patients who were admitted to a Pneumology department for COPDE. We recorded demographic, clinical (tobacco use, exacerbations and infections, dyspnoea, impact according to CAT questionnaire, pulmonary function, comorbidities, oxygen therapy and noninvasive ventilation) and social (financial status, caregiver availability and overload, dependence for basic and instrumental activities, social risk and use of social services) variables, employing questionnaires and indices such as Barthel, Lawton-Brody, Zarit, Barber and Gijón. We performed a univariate and multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

The study included 253 patients, with a mean age of 68.9±9.8years; 77.1% of whom were men. The logistic regression model included active tobacco use, FEV₁ value, CAT score >10, dyspnoea 3-4 on the MMRC, the presence of bacteria in sputum cultures, cardiovascular comorbidity, anaemia, home oxygen therapy, living alone, rural residence, caregiver overload and detecting social-family risks/problems. The variables independently associated with the possibility of PHS were a CAT score >10 (OR, 8.9; P=.04) and detecting a social-family risk/problem (OR, 2.6; P=.04). Active smoking was a predictor of shorter stays (OR, 0.15; P=.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Variables related to the social sphere play a relevant role in hospital stays, as do the impact of the disease and the persistent use of tobacco by patients with severe COPD exacerbation.

Zero-augmented accelerated spatial failure model for modeling hospital length of stay data

Hospital length of stay (LOS) is often used as an indicator for hospital efficiency and resource utilization. LOS is nonnegative with presence of zeros and typically positively skewed with a long right tail, which may not be adequately modelled by traditional distributions, such as lognormal. We developed a zero-augmented accelerated frailty model for modeling the extreme skewness with the presence of zeros. Levels of utilization of health services may vary geographically, so conditional autoregressive priors were used to provide spatial smoothing across neighboring hospital health districts. The random effect terms are further linked to investigate if the capacity for longer LOS are consistently higher or lower at the health district level. Modeling and inference used the Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We demonstrated the proposed model for modeling the LOS of patients admitted due to chronic lower respiratory disease in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Clinical variables predicting the risk of a hospital stay for longer than 7 days in patients with severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients may experience an acute exacerbation (AECOPD) that requires hospitalisation. The length of hospital stay (LHS) has a great economic impact on the health-care system. Knowing the predictors of prolonged LHS could help to identify possible interventions.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study to identify the clinical predictors of prolonged LHS in patients hospitalised for AECOPD. We divided the study sample by LHS into normal (≤7 days) and prolonged LHS (> 7 days) groups. Outcomes were the need for non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV and IMV), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the 3-year mortality.

RESULTS

We enrolled 437 patients, of which 213 and 224 had normal LHS and prolonged LHS, respectively. Patients with a prolonged LHS had more prior hospitalisations for AECOPD, a worse mMRC (modified Medical Research Council) dyspnoea score, a higher prevalence of long-term oxygen therapy and a higher rate of congestive heart disease. During the current admission, this group also tended to require NIMV, IMV and ICU admission and the mortality risks at 6 months, 1 year and 3 years were higher. In the multivariate regression analysis, an mMRC dyspnoea score ≥ 2 (odds ratio-OR 2.24; 95% confidence interval-CI 1.34 to 3.74; p = 0.002) and the presence of acute respiratory acidosis (OR 2.75; 95% CI 1.49 to 5.05; p = 0.001) predicted a prolonged LHS at admission.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of an mMRC ≥2 and acute respiratory acidosis at admission independently increased the risk of a prolonged LHS for AECOPD.

Validation of ACCESS: an automated tool to support self-management of COPD exacerbations

Background

To support patients with COPD in their self-management of symptom worsening, we developed Adaptive Computerized COPD Exacerbation Self-management Support (ACCESS), an innovative software application that provides automated treatment advice without the interference of a health care professional. Exacerbation detection is based on 12 symptom-related yes-or-no questions and the measurement of peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO₂), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁), and body temperature. Automated treatment advice is based on a decision model built by clinical expert panel opinion and Bayesian network modeling. The current paper describes the validity of ACCESS.

Methods

We performed secondary analyses on data from a 3-month prospective observational study in which patients with COPD registered respiratory symptoms daily on diary cards and measured SpO₂, FEV₁, and body temperature. We examined the validity of the most important treatment advice of ACCESS, ie, to contact the health care professional, against symptom- and event-based exacerbations.

Results

Fifty-four patients completed 2,928 diary cards. One or more of the different pieces of ACCESS advice were provided in 71.7% of all cases. We identified 115 symptom-based exacerbations. Cross-tabulation showed a sensitivity of 97.4% (95% CI 92.0-99.3), specificity of 65.6% (95% CI 63.5-67.6), and positive and negative predictive value of 13.4% (95% CI 11.2-15.9) and 99.8% (95% CI 99.3-99.9), respectively, for ACCESS' advice to contact a health care professional in case of an exacerbation.

Conclusion

In many cases (71.7%), ACCESS gave at least one self-management advice to lower symptom burden, showing that ACCES provides self-management support for both day-to-day symptom variations and exacerbations. High sensitivity shows that if there is an exacerbation, ACCESS will advise patients to contact a health care professional. The high negative predictive value leads us to conclude that when ACCES does not provide the advice to contact a health care professional, the risk of an exacerbation is very low. Thus, ACCESS can safely be used in patients with COPD to support self-management in case of an exacerbation.

Prolonged stay predictors in patients admitted with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease acute exacerbation

Objectives:

The study aimed to identify the factors related to prolonged stay in those patients admitted with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) to our hospital.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing the medical records of all patients admitted with AECOPD to the University Hospital Complex of Santiago de Compostela in 2007 and 2008. To identify variables independently associated with length of stay, we conducted a logistic regression including those variables which proved to be significant in the univariate analysis.

Results:

Six hundred and sixty-one patients were assessed; 76.6% were male and the mean age was 74.5 years (standard deviation [SD]: 11.48). The mean stay was 11.9 days (SD: 8) and 24% of all patients required prolonged stay. Factors associated with prolonged mean stay in multivariate analysis were admission to the Intensive Care Unit (odds ratio [OR], 14.7), hospitalization by internal medicine (OR, 2.1), and use of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (OR, 1.75).

Conclusions:

Prolonged stay in AECOPD is primarily related to the unit patients are admitted to, and to the need for more intensive care.

Variations in practice patterns and resource utilization in patients treated for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Several studies have looked at patient-related variables influencing hospital length of stay (LOS) in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). However, there has been increasing recognition that physician-related factors also play a significant role. This study aims to evaluate differences in practice patterns between teaching and nonteaching services and their effect on LOS in a large community hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 354 patients admitted to Florida Hospital, Orlando, with AECOPD between January 2009 and December 2011. Patients who presented with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation were excluded. Practice patterns of interest were use of oral versus intravenous systemic steroids, use of oral versus intravenous antibiotics, and utilization of consultations.

RESULTS

Length of stay was significantly lower in the teaching compared with the nonteaching group (2.80 vs. 5.04 days, P < .001). There was significantly greater use of oral steroids (85% vs. 8.9%, P < .001), greater use of oral antibiotics (72% vs. 33%, P < .001), and lower utilization of consults (0.3 vs. 1.4 consults per patient, P < .001) in the teaching compared with the nonteaching group. The teaching service was independently associated with decreased LOS in a multivariable regression model. However, after adjustment for the difference in practice patterns between the 2 groups, the teaching service was no longer associated with decreased LOS. Of the practice patterns, only utilization of consults was independently associated with increased LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

The teaching service had decreased LOS compared with the nonteaching service in patients hospitalized for AECOPD. The observed difference was completely explained by differences in practice patterns between the 2 groups. The study identifies an opportunity for more efficient and cost-effective care of AECOPD patients through streamlining of consultations, use of oral steroids in lieu of IV steroids, and antibiotic stewardship.

Characterization of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with a Long Length of Stay: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation is one of the most common reasons for hospital admission. Patients with COPD with a long length of stay (LoS) occupy a disproportionately high fraction of hospital bed-days. The objective of this study was to identify associations of long LoS in patients admitted with COPD exacerbation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

From December 2012 until June 2013, 499 patients were admitted to Queens Hospital, Romford, UK, with COPD exacerbation. Mean LoS was 7 days, with a median of 5 days, and a 90th percentile of 14 days. In this retrospective observational cohort study, 64 patients with a short LoS were compared with 62 patients with a long LoS.

RESULTS

Relative to the short LoS, patients with long LoS had significantly lower arterial blood pH, higher arterial PaCO2 and HCO3, higher white cell count, higher globulin and more frequent chest X-ray changes, lower albumin levels, and lower Barthel and Braden scores. They were less likely to have seen the hospital COPD specialist nurse, more likely to require escalation of social care on discharge, and more likely to die during admission. Nearly 66% of the long LoS patients remained in hospital beyond the time of being medically fit for discharge. Commonly cited reasons for delayed discharge were the wait for therapy and social services assessments and the wait for commencement of community social care.

CONCLUSION

Meticulous targeting of features peculiar to long LoS patients has the potential to reduce future hospital bed-days for patients with COPD in our and other hospitals.

Predicting hospital stay, mortality and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia: prognostic models derivation and validation

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia.

METHODS

We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score ('base' model). In the second model, we added to the 'base' model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables ('disease' model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics.

RESULTS

In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia.

Comparison of hospital outcomes and resource use in acute COPD exacerbation patients managed by teaching versus nonteaching services in a community hospital

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

The impact of teaching versus nonteaching services on outcomes and resource use in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is unknown. The aim of the study is to evaluate the impact of an internal medicine teaching service compared to a nonteaching service on outcomes and resource use in patients admitted with AECOPD in a community teaching hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients admitted for a primary diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation to Florida Hospital Orlando, a large community teaching hospital, between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014. Data were extracted from Premier administrative database. Risk adjusted length of stay (LOS), cost of hospitalization, 30-day readmissions, and mortality rate were measured. Risk adjustment for outcomes was based on Premier CareScience methodology.

RESULTS

A total of 1419 patients were included, 306 in the teaching group and 1113 in the nonteaching group. Risk adjusted cost and LOS were significantly lower in the teaching group compared to the nonteaching group (observed/expected cost 0.66 vs 1.06, P < .001) and (observed/expected LOS 0.93 vs 1.69, P < .001), respectively. No significant difference was found between the 2 groups in risk adjusted mortality and readmissions (P = .48 and .89, respectively). Use of consults was significantly lower in the teaching groups with 73% vs 31% of the patient in the teaching group had no consults compared to the nonteaching group (P < .001). The teaching service was significantly associated with decreased use of consults after adjustment for other variables (odds ratio, 0.17, 95% CI, 0.15-0.23, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The teaching service had more favorable outcomes compared to nonteaching services in patients hospitalized for AECOPD. The physician practice model has a major impact on the cost, LOS, and use of consults in patients with AECOPD.

One-year and long-term mortality in patients hospitalized for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Identifying potentially-modifiable predictors of mortality could help optimize COPD patient management. The aim of this study is to determine long-term mortality following hospitalization due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), as well as AECOPD mortality predictors.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing the medical records of all patients admitted with AECOPD in the University Hospital Complex of Santiago de Compostela in 2007 and 2008. In order to identify variables independently associated with mortality, we conducted a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis including those variables which proved to be significant in the univariate analysis.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and fifty seven patients were assessed. Patient mean age was 74.8 years and males accounted for 77% of all patients. Mean stay was 12.2 days. Three point six percent of all patients required intensive care. As for mortality rates, 1-year mortality was 26.2%, and 5-year mortality was 64.3%. In both scenarios, the most frequent causes of death were respiratory and cardiovascular disorders. Factors independently associated with mortality were older age, hospitalization by internal medicine (IMU), length of stay, the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) or noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), early readmission, and history of atrial fibrillation (AF) and dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with COPD, age, exacerbation severity and comorbidity have long-term prognostic significance.

Contextual, Ecological and Organizational Variations in Risk-Adjusted COPD and Asthma Hospitalization Rates of Rural Medicare Beneficiaries

The purpose of this study is to examine what factors contributing to the variability in chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and asthma hospitalization rates when the influence of patient characteristics is being simultaneously considered by applying a risk adjustment method. A longitudinal analysis of COPD and asthma hospitalization of rural Medicare beneficiaries in 427 rural health clinics (RHCs) was conducted utilizing administrative data and inpatient and outpatient claims from Region 4. The repeated measures of risk-adjusted COPD and asthma admission rate were analyzed by growth curve modeling. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) method was used to identify the relevance of selected predictors in accounting for the variability in risk-adjusted admission rates for COPD and asthma. Both adjusted and unadjusted rates of COPD admission showed a slight decline from 2010 to 2013. The growth curve modeling showed the annual rates of change were gradually accentuated through time. GEE revealed that a moderate amount of variance (marginal R2 = 0.66) in the risk-adjusted hospital admission rates for COPD and asthma was accounted for by contextual, ecological, and organizational variables. The contextual, ecological, and organizational factors are those associated with RHCs, not hospitals. We cannot infer how the variability in hospital practices in RHC service areas may have contributed to the disparities in admissions. Identification of RHCs with substantially higher rates than an average rate can portray the need for further enhancement of needed ambulatory or primary care services for the specific groups of RHCs. Because the risk-adjusted rates of hospitalization do not very by classification of rural area, future research should address the variation in a specific COPD and asthma condition of RHC patients. Risk-adjusted admission rates for COPD and asthma are influenced by the synergism of multiple contextual, ecological, and organizational factors instead of a single factor.

Factors associated with the incidence of serious adverse events in patients admitted with COPD acute exacerbation

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a common cause of hospitalization. Patient outcome and prognosis following AECOPD are variable. The aim of this study is to identify the factors associated with the incidence of serious adverse events (SAE), defined as need for ICU admission, noninvasive ventilation, death during hospitalization or early readmission, in those patients admitted with AECOPD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing the medical records of all patients admitted with AECOPD in the University Hospital Complex of Santiago de Compostela in 2007 and 2008. To identify variables independently associated with SAE incidence, we conducted a logistic regression including those variables which proved to be significant in the univariate analysis.

RESULTS

757 patients were assessed (mean age 74.8 years, SD 11.26), 77.2 % male, and 186 (24.6 %) of the patients assessed experienced an SAE. Factors associated with SAE in multivariate analysis were anticholinergic therapy (OR 3.19; CI 95 %: 1.16; 8.82), oxygen therapy at home (OR 3.72; CI 95 %: 1.62; 8.57), oxygen saturation at admission (OR 0.93; CI 95 %: 0.88; 0.99) and serum albumin (OR 0.26; CI 95 %: 0.1; 0.66).

CONCLUSION

Oxygen therapy at home, anticholinergic therapy as baseline treatment, lower oxygen saturation at admission and lower serum albumin level seem to be associated with higher incidence of SAE in patients with AECOPD.

Physical activity assessed in routine care predicts mortality after a COPD hospitalisation

The independent relationship between physical inactivity and risk of death after an index chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisation is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a large integrated healthcare system. Patients were included if they were hospitalised for COPD between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All-cause mortality in the 12 months after discharge was the primary outcome. Physical activity, expressed as self-reported minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), was routinely assessed at outpatient visits prior to hospitalisation. 1727 (73%) patients were inactive (0 min of MVPA per week), 412 (17%) were insufficiently active (1-149 min of MVPA per week) and 231 (10%) were active (≥150 min of MVPA per week). Adjusted Cox regression models assessed risk of death across the MVPA categories. Among 2370 patients (55% females and mean age 73±11 years), there were 464 (20%) deaths. Patients who were insufficiently active or active had a 28% (adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.54-0.97), p=0.03) and 47% (adjusted HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.34-0.84), p<0.01) lower risk of death, respectively, in the 12 months following an index COPD hospitalisation compared to inactive patients. Any level of MVPA is associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality after a COPD hospitalisation. Routine assessment of physical activity in clinical care would identify persons at high risk for dying after COPD hospitalisation.

Length of stay of COPD hospital admissions between 2006 and 2010: a retrospective longitudinal study

Background

Hospitalizations for COPD are associated with poor patient prognosis. Length of stay (LOS) of COPD admissions in a large urban area and patient and hospital factors associated with it are described.

Methods

Retrospective longitudinal study. All COPD patients registered with London general practitioners and admitted as an emergency with COPD (2006–2010), not having been admitted with COPD in the preceding 12 months were included. Association of patient and hospital characteristics with mean LOS of COPD admissions was assessed. Association between hospital and LOS was determined by negative binomial regression.

Results

The total number of admissions was 38,504, from 22,462 patients. The mean LOS for first admissions fell by 0.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7–1.5) from 8.2 to 7.0 days between 2006 and 2010. Seventy-nine percent of first admissions were ≤10 days, with a mean LOS of 3.7 days (2009–2010). The mean LOS of successive COPD admissions of the same patients was the same or less throughout the study period. The interval between successive admissions fell from a mean of 357 days between the first and second admission to a mean of 19 days after eight admissions. Age accounted for 2.3% of the variance in LOS. Socioeconomic deprivation did not predict LOS. Fewer discharges happened at the weekend (1,893/day) than on weekdays (5,218/day). The mean LOS varied between hospitals, from 4.9 days (95% CI: 3.8–5.9) to 9.5 days (95% CI: 8.6–10.3) when adjusting for clustering, age, sex, and socioeconomic deprivation.

Conclusion

The fall in LOS of the first COPD admission between 2006 and 2010 reflects international trends. The stability of LOS in successive admissions suggests that increasing severity of disease does not affect recovery time from an exacerbation. Variations between hospitals of nearly 5 days in LOS for COPD admissions suggests that significant improvements in patient outcomes and in savings in health care utilization could be made in hospitals with longer LOS.