Impact of preoperative comorbidities on postoperative complication rate and outcome in surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients

Analysis of risk factors of postoperative complication for non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The relationship between risk factors of common postoperative complications after pulmonary resection, such as air leakage, atelectasis, and arrhythmia, and patient characteristics, including nutritional status or perioperative factors, has not been sufficiently elucidated.

METHODS

One thousand one hundred thirty-nine non-small cell lung cancer patients who underwent pulmonary resection were retrospectively analyzed for risk factors of common postoperative complications.

RESULTS

In a multivariate analysis, male sex (P = 0.01), age ≥ 65 years (P < 0.01), coexistence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (P < 0.01), upper lobe (P < 0.01), surgery time ≥ 155 min (P < 0.01), and presence of lymphatic invasion (P = 0.01) were significant factors for postoperative complication. Male sex (P < 0.01), age ≥ 65 years (P = 0.02), body mass index (BMI) < 21.68 (P < 0.01), coexistence of COPD (P = 0.02), and surgery time ≥ 155 min (P = 0.01) were significant factors for severe postoperative complication. Male sex (P = 0.01), BMI < 21.68 (P < 0.01), thoracoscopic surgery (P < 0.01), and surgery time ≥ 155 min (P < 0.01) were significant risk factors for postoperative air leakage. Coexistence of COPD (P = 0.01) and coexistence of asthma (P < 0.01) were significant risk factors for postoperative atelectasis. Prognostic nutrition index (PNI) < 45.52 (P < 0.01), lobectomy or extended resection more than lobectomy (P = 0.01), and surgery time ≥ 155 min (P < 0.01) were significant risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia.

CONCLUSION

Low BMI, thoracoscopic surgery, and longer surgery time were significant risk factors for postoperative air leakage. Coexistence of COPD and coexistence of asthma were significant risk factors for postoperative atelectasis. PNI, surgery time, and surgical procedure were revealed as risk factors of postoperative arrhythmia. Patients with these factors should be monitored for postoperative complication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Institutional Review Board of Kanazawa Medical University approved the protocol of this retrospective study (approval number: I392), and written informed consent was obtained from all patients.

Perioperative Challenges: Analysis of Surgical Complications in Screening Lung Carcinoma Patient

Introduction In September 2020, the Institute for Pulmonary Diseases of Vojvodina (IPBV) started a lung cancer screening program using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). Video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) lobectomy is the most effective treatment for early-stage lung cancer. However, the frequency of postoperative complications in VATS anatomical lung resections among patients enrolled in the screening program has not been adequately studied. This study aims to compare the frequency of surgical complications and length of hospital stay between patients enrolled in the screening program and a control group. Methods Retrospective, observational, monocentric, non-randomized study was conducted at the IPBV in Sremska Kamenica. The study included patients with a confirmed diagnosis of lung cancer who underwent anatomic pulmonary resection with mediastinal lymphadenectomy for therapeutic purposes. The patients were divided into two groups: the first group consisted of 34 patients who participated in the lung carcinoma screening program, while the second control group consisted of 102 patients. Over the past three years, all patients identified with nodules suspicious of malignancy during the screening program were sequentially enrolled in the screening group. For the control group, patients were selected based on a matching process to ensure valid statistical comparisons with the screening group. They were matched in a 3:1 ratio with patients from the screening group based on criteria including gender, disease stage, pathohistological type of cancer, tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) stage of the disease, and degree of surgical resection. Patients were monitored for demographic parameters, smoking status, presence of comorbidities and prior oncological diseases, pulmonary function parameters, level of pre-operational risk, the number of lymph nodes removed by biopsies, spread through alveolar spaces (STAS), and the occurrence of complications after surgery (infection, bleeding, air leak, presence of adhesions), re-drainage, and length of hospital stay. Results The patients in the screening group had a higher incidence of infections, bleeding, prolonged air leak, and required re-drainage after surgery compared to the control group. Patients from the screening program with a high operative risk, prolonged air leak, and pleural adhesions had a statistically significant higher hospital stay longer than the control group. Conclusions This research emphasizes the importance of screening programs for detecting lung cancer in the early stages. However, it also highlights the need for further research to reduce surgical complications and improve therapeutic interventions for patients in the screening program.

Magnitude and associated factors of postoperative mortality among patients who underwent surgery in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Postoperative mortality is one of the six surgical indicators identified by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery for monitoring access to high-quality surgical care. This study aimed to assess the magnitude and associated factors of postoperative mortality among patients who underwent surgery in Ethiopia.

Methods

This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines. Ten studies were included in this Systematic review and meta-analysis. The risk of bias for each study was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute quality appraisal scale. Publication bias was checked using a funnel plot and Egger's regression test. Heterogeneity across studies was assessed by I2 statistics. STATA version 17 software was used for analysis. A random effect model and the DerSimonian-Laird method of estimation was used to estimate the pooled magnitude of postoperative mortality. Odds ratios with 95% CIs were calculated to determine the associations of the identified factors with postoperative mortality.

Results

The results revealed that the pooled magnitude of postoperative mortality among patients who underwent surgery in Ethiopia was 4.53% (95% CI :3.70-5.37). An American Society of Anesthesiologists score greater than or equal to III [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.45, 95% CI: 2.02, 2.96], age older than or equal to 65 years (AOR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.78, 3.31), and comorbidity (AOR: 3.28, 95% CI: 1.91, 5.63) were significantly associated with postoperative mortality.

Conclusion and recommendations

The pooled magnitude of postoperative mortality among patients who underwent surgery in Ethiopia was high. The presence of comorbidities, age older than 65 years, and ASA physical status greater than III were significantly associated with postoperative mortality. Therefore, the Ministry of Health and other concerned bodies should consider quality improvement processes.

Intersection of Race, Rurality, and Income in Defining Access to Minimally Invasive Lung Surgery

BACKGROUND

Race is a potent influencer of health care access. Geography and income may exert equal or greater influence on patient outcomes. We sought to define the intersection of race, rurality, and income and their influence on access to minimally invasive lung surgery in Medicare beneficiaries.

METHODS

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data were used to evaluate patients with lung cancer who underwent right upper lobectomy, by open, robotic-assisted thoracic surgery (RATS), or video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) between 2018 and 2020. International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, was used to define diagnoses and procedures. We excluded sublobar, segmental, wedge, bronchoplasty, or reoperative patients with nonmalignant or metastatic disease or a history of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Risk adjustment was performed using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) propensity scores with generalized linear models and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 13,404 patients, 4291 open (32.1%), 4317 RATS (32.2%), and 4796 VATS (35.8%). Black/urban patients had significantly higher RATS and VATS rates (P < .001), longer long-term survival (P = .007), fewer open resections (P < .001), and lower overall mortality (P = .007). Low-income Black/urban patients had higher RATS (P = .002), VATS (P < .001), longer long-term survival (P = .005), fewer open resections (P < .001), and lower overall mortality compared with rural White patients (P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

Rural White populations living close to the federal poverty line may suffer a burden of disparity traditionally observed among poor Black people. This suggests a need for health policies that extend services to impoverished, rural areas to mitigate social determinants of health.

[ERAS Implementation in Thoracic Surgery]

This manuscript provides an overview of the principles and requirements for implementing the ERAS program in thoracic surgery.The ERAS program optimises perioperative management of elective lung resection procedures and is based on the ERAS Guidelines for Thoracic Surgery of the ERAS Society. The clinical measures are described as in the current literature, with a focus on postoperative outcome. There are currently 45 enhanced recovery items covering four perioperative phases: from the prehospital admission phase (patient education, screening and treatment of potential risk factors such as anaemia, malnutrition, cessation of nicotine or alcohol abuse, prehabilitation, carbohydrate loading) to the immediate preoperative phase (shortened fasting period, non-sedating premedication, prophylaxis of PONV and thromboembolic complications), the intraoperative measures (antibiotic prophylaxis, standardised anaesthesia, normothermia, targeted fluid therapy, minimally invasive surgery, avoidance of catheters and probes) through to the postoperative measures (early mobilisation, early nutrition, removal of a urinary catheter, hyperglycaemia control). Most of these measures are based on scientific studies, with a high level of evidence and aim to reduce general postoperative complications.The ERAS program is an optimised perioperative treatment approach aiming to improve the postoperative recovery in patients after elective lung resection by reducing the overall complication rates and overall morbidity.

Mortality index is more accurate than volume in predicting outcome and failure to rescue in Medicare beneficiaries undergoing robotic right upper lobectomy

Background

Surgical volume is known to influence failure to rescue (FTR), defined as death following a complication. Robotic lung surgery continues to expand and there is variability in outcomes among hospitals. We sought to estimate the contribution of hospital-based factors on outcomes and FTR following robotic right upper lobectomy (RRUL).

Methods

Using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services inpatient claims database, we evaluated all patients age ≥65 years with a diagnosis of lung cancer who underwent RRUL between January 2018 and December 2020. We excluded patients who had undergone segmentectomy, sublobar, wedge, or bronchoplastic resection; had metastatic or nonmalignant disease; or had a history of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Primary outcomes included FTR rate, length of stay (LOS), readmissions, conversion to open surgery, complications, and costs. We analyzed hospitals by tertiles of volume and Medicare Mortality Index (MMI). Defined as the institutional number of deaths per number of survivors, MMI is a marker of overall hospital performance and quality. Propensity score models were adjusted for confounding using goodness of fit.

Results

Data for 4317 patients who underwent robotic right upper lobectomy were analyzed. Hospitals were categorized by volume of cases (low, <9; medium, 9-20; high, >20) and MMI (low, <0.04; medium, 0.04-0.13; high, >0.13). After propensity score balancing, patients from tertiles of lowest volume and highest MMI had higher costs ($34,222 vs $30,316; P = .006), as well as higher mortality (odds ratio, 7.46; 95% confidence interval, 2.67-28.2; P < .001). Compared to high-volume centers, low-volume centers had higher rates of conversion to open surgery, respiratory failure, hemorrhagic anemia, and death; longer LOS; and greater cost (P < .001 for all). The C-statistic for volume as a predictor of overall mortality was 0.6, and the FTR was 0.8. Hospitals in the highest tertile of MMI had the highest rates of conversion to open surgery (P = .01), pneumothorax (P = .02), and respiratory failure (P < .001). They also had the highest mortality and rate of readmission, longest LOS, and greatest costs (P < .001 for all) and the shortest survival (P < .001). The C-statistic for MMI as a predictor of overall mortality was 0.8, and FTR was 0.9.

Conclusions

The MMI incorporates hospital-based factors in the adjudication of outcomes and is a more sensitive predictor of FTR rates than volume alone. Combining MMI and volume may provide a metric that can guide quality improvement and cost-effectiveness measures in hospitals seeking to implement robotic lung surgery programs.

Social and Biological Determinants in Lung Cancer Disparity

Lung cancer remains a leading cause of death in the United States and globally, despite progress in treatment and screening efforts. While mortality rates have decreased in recent years, long-term survival of patients with lung cancer continues to be a challenge. Notably, African American (AA) men experience significant disparities in lung cancer compared to European Americans (EA) in terms of incidence, treatment, and survival. Previous studies have explored factors such as smoking patterns and complex social determinants, including socioeconomic status, personal beliefs, and systemic racism, indicating their role in these disparities. In addition to social factors, emerging evidence points to variations in tumor biology, immunity, and comorbid conditions contributing to racial disparities in this disease. This review emphasizes differences in smoking patterns, screening, and early detection and the intricate interplay of social, biological, and environmental conditions that make African Americans more susceptible to developing lung cancer and experiencing poorer outcomes.

Risk factors for reoperation within 30 days in laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery: A Japanese multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

Thirty-day reoperation rate reflects short-term surgical outcomes following surgery. Laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer reportedly has positive effects on postoperative complications. This retrospective study investigated risk factors for 30-day reoperation rate among patients after laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery using a multicenter database.

METHODS

Participants comprised 3037 patients who had undergone laparoscopic resection of colorectal cancer between April 2016 and December 2022 at the Nagasaki University and six affiliated centers, classified into those who had undergone reoperation within 30 days after surgery (RO group; n = 88) and those who had not (NRO group; n = 2949). Clinicopathological characteristics were compared between groups.

RESULTS

In the RO group, anastomotic leakage occurred in 57 patients (64.8%), intestinal obstruction in 12 (13.6%), and intraabdominal abscess in 5 (5.7%). Female patients were more frequent, preoperative treatment less frequent, body mass index (BMI) lower, operation time longer, blood loss greater, and hospital stay longer in the RO group (p < .05 each). Multivariate analysis revealed BMI (odds ratio, 0.415; 95% confidence interval, 0.218-0.787; p = .021) and poor performance status (odds ratio, 1.966; 95% confidence interval, 1.106-3.492; p = .021) as independent predictors of reoperation.

CONCLUSION

Perioperative measures are warranted for patients with low BMI and poor performance status undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

"Low-age, low-frequency" lung cancer screening strategies maybe adaptable to the situation in China

BACKGROUND

The object was to compare changes in patients undergoing lung surgery before and after COVID-19 outbreak, and to explore the impact of COVID-19 on lung surgery and its coping strategies.

METHOD

A retrospective review of patients undergoing thoracic surgery at a single institution was conducted. Group A included patients treated between January 23, 2019, and January 23, 2020, while Group B included patients treated between June 1, 2020, and June 1, 2021, at our center. We compared the reasons of seeking medical treatment, the general characteristics of patients, imaging features, pathological features, surgical methods and postoperative recovery.

RESULT

Compared to Group A, the number of patients with pulmonary nodules screened by routine check-up increased in Group B (57.6% vs 46.9%, p < 0.05). Female patient increased (55.2%vs 44.7%). Patient without smoking history or with family history of lung cancer increased (70.7% vs 60.7%) (10.1%vs 7.8%). Early stage lung cancer increased. Lobectomy decreased (53.4% vs 64.1%). Segmental resection increased (33.3% vs 12.7%). Patients without postoperative comorbidities increased (96.1%vs 85.7%). In the case of patients with Ground Glass Opacity(GGO), their age was comparatively lower (52 ± 9.9 vs. 55 ± 10.7), the female patients increased, patient without smoking history, tumor history, family history of tumor increased, small GGO increased. Lobectomy decreased (35.2% vs 49.7%). Segmental resection increased (49.6% vs 21.2%). Patients without postoperative comorbidities increased (96.5% vs 87.4%).

CONCLUSION

Since COVID-19 outbreak, more young, non-smoking, female lung cancers, more Ground Glass Opacity, none high risk patients have been detected through screening, suggesting that our current screening criteria for lung cancer may need to be revised. Higher requirements, including the selection of the timing of nodular surgery, surgical methods were put forward for thoracic surgeons' skills.

Interpretable prediction of cardiopulmonary complications after non-small cell lung cancer surgery based on machine learning and SHapley additive exPlanations

Introduction

Lung cancer is a prevalent malignancy globally, with approximately 20% of patients developing cardiopulmonary complications after lobectomy. In order to prevent complications, an accurate and personalized method based on machine learning (ML) is required.

Methods

During the period of 2017-2021, a retrospective analysis was conducted on the medical records of patients who had undergone lobectomy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed logical regression, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boost DT, and eXtreme gradient boosting analyses to establish an ML model. The ten-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the performance of multiple ML models based on various evaluation metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating (AUC). Additionally, we also calculated the Kappa value of these model. Each model used grid search to optimize hyper-parameters and then used the interpretability method to provide explanations for the model's Decisions.

Results

The study included 718 eligible patients, among whom the incidence of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications was 20.89%. The RF model showed the best comprehensive performance among all models, and its ten-fold cross-validation accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC were (OR and 95% confidence interval [CI]) 0.786 (0.738-0.834), 0.803 (0.735-0.872), 0.738 (0.678-0.797), 0.766 (0.714-0.818), 0.856 (0.815-0.898), respectively. The kappa value of the RF model was 0.696 (0.617-0.768). The SHAP method showed that gender, age, and intraoperative blood loss were closely associated with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications.

Conclusion

The application of ML methods for predicting postoperative cardiopulmonary complications based on clinical data of patients with NSCLC showed a good performance. The results indicate that ML combined with the SHAP individualized interpretation method has practical clinical value.

Are Extensive Open Lung Resections for Elderly Patients with Lung Cancer Justified?

BACKGROUND

Older patients with malignancies are more comorbid than younger ones and are usually undertreated only because of their age. The aim of this study is to investigate the safety of open anatomical lung resections for lung cancer in elderly patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed all patients who underwent lung resection for lung cancer in our institution and categorized them into two groups: the elderly group (≥70 years old) and the control (<70).

RESULTS

In total, 135 patients were included in the elderly group and 375 in the control. Elderly patients were more frequently diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma (59.3% vs. 51.5%, p = 0.037), higher differentiated tumors (12.6% vs. 6.4%, p = 0.014), and at an earlier stage (stage I: 55.6% for elderly vs. 36.6%, p = 0.002). Elderly patients were more vulnerable to postoperative pneumonia (3.7% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.034), lung atelectasis (7.4% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.040), and pleural empyema (3.2% vs. 0%, p = 0.042), however, with no increased 30-day-mortality (5.2% for elderly vs. 2.7%, p = 0.168). Survival was comparable in both groups (43.4 vs. 45.3 months, p = 0.579).

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly patients should not be excluded from open major lung resections as the survival benefit is not reduced in selected patients.

Naples Prognostic Score as an Independent Predictor of Survival Outcomes for Resected Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Treatment

Background

The Naples Prognostic Score (NPS) can reflect patient's nutritional and inflammatory status, which is identified as a prognostic indicator for various malignant tumors. However, its significance in patients with resected locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) patients who receive neoadjuvant treatment remains unclear so far.

Methods

A total of 165 LA-NSCLC patients surgically treated from May 2012 to November 2017 were retrospectively investigated. The LA-NSCLC patients were divided into three groups according to NPS scores. The receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to reveal the discriminatory ability of NPS and other indicators for predicting the survival. The NPS and clinicopathological variables were further evaluated the prognostic value by univariate and multivariate Cox analysis.

Results

The NPS was related to age (P = 0.046), smoking history (P = 0.004), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score (P = 0.005), and adjuvant treatment (P = 0.017). Patients with high NPS scores had worse overall survival (OS) (group 1 vs 0, P = 0.006; group 2 vs 0, P < 0.001) and disease-free survival (DFS) (group 1 vs 0, P < 0.001; group 2 vs 0, P < 0.001). The ROC analysis demonstrated that NPS had better predictive ability than other prognostic indicators. Multivariate analysis revealed that NPS was independent prognostic indicator of OS (group 1 vs 0, hazard ratio [HR] =2.591, P = 0.023; group 2 vs 0, HR = 8.744, P = 0.001) and DFS (group 1 vs 0, HR =3.754, P < 0.001; group 2 vs 0, HR = 9.673, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

The NPS could be an independent prognostic indicator in patients with resected LA-NSCLC receiving neoadjuvant treatment and more reliable than the other nutritional and inflammatory indicators.

Outcomes of lung cancer surgery in patients with COVID-19 history: a single center cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can irreversibly damage the lungs and could possibly increase the risk of surgical treatment of lung cancer. The study aimed to assess the relationship between preoperative COVID-19 and complications and early outcomes of lung cancer surgery.

METHODS

This single-center cohort study included 444 patients who underwent lobectomy or segmentectomy for primary lung cancer from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021. The exclusion criteria were pneumonectomy, extended resection, and wedge resection. The groups of patients with (n = 72) and without (n = 372) the history of COVID-19 prior to surgery were compared. The groups were similar in terms of distribution of baseline, surgical and histopathological characteristics. The primary endpoint was the incidence of postoperative complications. Secondary endpoints were outcomes at discharge and at 90 days.

RESULTS

The incidence of postoperative complications did not differ between the groups of patients with and without COVID-19 history (30.6% vs 29.3%, p = 0.831). Outcomes at discharge and at 90 days after surgery did not differ between the groups. Among the patients with and without prior COVID-19, 97.2 and 99.5% were alive at discharge (p = 0.125), and 97.2% and 98.1% ninety days after surgery (p = 0.644), respectively. Patients with COVID-19 history more often required re-drainage (6.9% v 2.2%, p = 0.044) and reoperation (5.6 v 1.3%, p = 0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 history is not related to the general incidence of complications, outcomes at discharge from the hospital, and at 90-days after surgery.

Early recurrence factors in patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The clinical characteristics and risk factors for cancer recurrence have not been well evaluated regarding early recurrence in patients with unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) who receive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT). The aim of this study was to determine the clinical characteristics and risk factors of patients with stage III unresectable LA-NSCLC treated with CRT who developed early recurrence.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 46 patients diagnosed with stage III unresectable LA-NSCLC treated with CRT at our center between July 2012 and July 2021. A tumor proportion score (TPS) < 50% was defined as "low expression" and a TPS > 50% was defined as "high expression."

RESULTS

A total of 17 (37.0%) patients had a confirmed recurrence within 1 year of treatment. More patients had a lower body mass index in the early recurrence group than in the later recurrence group (p = 0.038). A higher number of patients in the late recurrence group underwent surgery after CRT (p = 0.036). Patients with a higher TPS were more likely to experience late recurrence than early recurrence (p = 0.001), whereas more patients with stage N3 disease were in the early recurrence group (p = 0.011). Multivariate analysis identified lower TPS expression as an independent risk factor for early recurrence after CRT. Overall survival was prolonged in the late recurrence group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A lower TPS may be a predictor of early recurrence after CRT in patients with LA-NSCLC. These patients should be closely monitored for post-treatment recurrence.

Should cardiovascular comorbidities be a contraindication for pulmonary metastasectomy?

BACKGROUND

Limited information is available about the impact of cardiovascular comorbidities (CVC) on the postoperative course of patients undergoing pulmonary metastasectomy (PM). In this study, we aim to compare the postoperative morbidity, mortality, and the long-term survival of patients with and without CVC undergoing PM.

METHODS

A retrospective monocentric study was conducted including 760 patients who underwent PM in curative intention. Patients were divided into two groups depending on the presence of CVC.

RESULTS

The data from 164 patients with CVC (21.6%) and 596 patients without CVC (78.4%) were investigated. In both groups, zero in-hospital-mortality and limited 30-day mortality was detected. Postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with CVC (N=47, 28.7% vs. N=122, 20.5%, P=0.02). However, most of them were minor (N=37, 22.6% vs. N=93, 15.6%, P=0.03). The presence of multiple CVC (N=18 patients, 40% vs. N=28, 23.9%, P=0.04) and reduced left ventricular function (N=5, 62.5% vs. N=42, 27.1%, P=0.03) were identified as risk factors for postoperative morbidity. Patients with CVC showed reduced overall survival (5-year survival rate: 75.8% vs. 68%, P=0.03). In the multivariate analysis lobectomy [hazard ratio (HR) 0.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1-0.8, P=0.02] and general vascular comorbidities (HR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.1-3.9, P=0.01) were identified as independent negative prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Resection of pulmonary metastases can be performed safely in selected patients with stable CVC. The presence of CVC in patients undergoing PM is associated with reduced overall survival compared to patients without CVC in the long term follow up. However, a prolonged 5-year survival rate of 68% could be achieved.

External validation of five predictive models for postoperative cardiopulmonary morbidity in a Chinese population receiving lung resection

BACKGROUND

No postoperative cardiopulmonary morbidity models have been developed or validated in Chinese patients with lung resection. This study aims to externally validate five predictive models, including Eurolung models, the Brunelli model and the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, in a Chinese population.

METHODS

Patients with lung cancer who underwent anatomic lung resection between 2018/09/01 and 2019/08/31 in our center were involved. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model calibration was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Calibration curves were plotted. Specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and accuracy were calculated. Model updating was achieved by re-estimating the intercept and/or the slope of the linear predictor and re-estimating all coefficients.

RESULTS

Among 1085 patients, 91 patients had postoperative cardiopulmonary complications defined by the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons. For original models, only parsimonious Eurolung1 had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.688, 95% confidence interval 0.630-0.745) and calibration (p = 0.23 > 0.05) abilities simultaneously. Its sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were 0.700, 0.649, 0.153, 0.960 and 0.653, respectively. In the secondary analysis, increased pleural effusion (n = 94), which was nonchylous and nonpurulent, was labeled as a kind of postoperative complication. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models increased slightly, but all models were miscalibrated. The original Eurolung1 model had the highest discrimination ability but poor calibration, and thus it was updated by three methods. After model updating, new models showed good calibration and small improvements in discrimination. The discrimination ability was still merely acceptable.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, none of the models performed well on postoperative cardiopulmonary morbidity prediction in this Chinese population. The original parsimonious Eurolung1 and the updated Eurolung1 were the best-performing models on morbidity prediction, but their discrimination ability only achieved an acceptable level. A multicenter study with more relevant variables and sophisticated statistical methods is warranted to develop new models among Chinese patients in the future.