Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Water quality-fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.

Changes in Atlantic climatic regulation mechanisms that underlie mesozooplankton biomass loss in the northern Baltic Sea

The effects of climate-induced, long-term changes on mesozooplankton biomasses were studied based on monitoring data collected since 1966 in the northern Baltic Sea. We found that the biomasses of marine and brackish mesozooplankton had decreased significantly from 1966 to 2019, and a remarkable biomass and functional biodiversity loss took place in the mesozooplankton community. Our results put emphasis on the impact of two climate-driven regime shifts for the region's mesozooplankton community. The regime shifts took place in 1975 and 1976 and in 1989 and 1990, and they were the most important factor behind the abrupt biomass changes for marine mesozooplankton and total and marine Copepoda. Only the latter regime shift influenced the biomasses of brackish Copepoda, marine Cladocera, and total Rotifera. The decreasing length of the ice-cover period drove the decrease of the biomass of limnic Limnocalanus macrurus (Copepoda), while the winter North Atlantic Oscillation was behind biomass changes in the total and the brackish Cladocera. These findings may have important implications for planktivorous fish, such as Baltic herring, particularly in terms of their impact on commercial fishing.

Mitochondrial responses to constant and cyclic hypoxia depend on the oxidized fuel in a hypoxia-tolerant marine bivalve Crassostrea gigas

Sessile benthic organisms like oysters inhabit the intertidal zone, subject to alternating hypoxia and reoxygenation (H/R) episodes during tidal movements, impacting respiratory chain activities and metabolome compositions. We investigated the effects of constant severe hypoxia (90 min at ~ 0% O2 ) followed by 10 min reoxygenation, and cyclic hypoxia (5 cycles of 15 min at ~ 0% O2 and 10 min reoxygenation) on isolated mitochondria from the gill and the digestive gland of Crassostrea gigas respiring on pyruvate, palmitate, or succinate. Constant hypoxia suppressed oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), particularly during Complex I-linked substrates oxidation. It had no effect on mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) efflux but increased fractional electron leak (FEL). In mitochondria oxidizing Complex I substrates, exposure to cyclic hypoxia prompted a significant drop after the first H/R cycle. In contrast, succinate-driven respiration only showed significant decline after the third to fifth H/R cycle. ROS efflux saw little change during cyclic hypoxia regardless of the oxidized substrate, but Complex I-driven FEL tended to increase with each subsequent H/R cycle. These observations suggest that succinate may serve as a beneficial stress fuel under H/R conditions, aiding in the post-hypoxic recovery of oysters by reducing oxidative stress and facilitating rapid ATP re-synthesis. The impacts of constant and cyclic hypoxia of similar duration on mitochondrial respiration and oxidative lesions in the proteins were comparable indicating that the mitochondrial damage is mostly determined by the lack of oxygen and mitochondrial depolarization. The ROS efflux in the mitochondria of oysters was minimally affected by oxygen fluctuations indicating that tight regulation of ROS production may contribute to robust mitochondrial phenotype of oysters and protect against H/R induced stress.

Baltic Sea coastal sediment-bound eukaryotes have increased year-round activities under predicted climate change related warming

Climate change related warming is a serious environmental problem attributed to anthropogenic activities, causing ocean water temperatures to rise in the coastal marine ecosystem since the last century. This particularly affects benthic microbial communities, which are crucial for biogeochemical cycles. While bacterial communities have received considerable scientific attention, the benthic eukaryotic community response to climate change remains relatively overlooked. In this study, sediments were sampled from a heated (average 5°C increase over the whole year for over 50 years) and a control (contemporary conditions) Baltic Sea bay during four different seasons across a year. RNA transcript counts were then used to investigate eukaryotic community changes under long-term warming. The composition of active species in the heated and control bay sediment eukaryotic communities differed, which was mainly attributed to salinity and temperature. The family level RNA transcript alpha diversity in the heated bay was higher during May but lower in November, compared with the control bay, suggesting altered seasonal activity patterns and dynamics. In addition, structures of the active eukaryotic communities varied between the two bays during the same season. Hence, this study revealed that long-term warming can change seasonality in eukaryotic diversity patterns. Relative abundances and transcript expression comparisons between bays suggested that some taxa that now have lower mRNA transcripts numbers could be favored by future warming. Furthermore, long-term warming can lead to a more active metabolism in these communities throughout the year, such as higher transcript numbers associated with diatom energy production and protein synthesis in the heated bay during winter. In all, these data can help predict how future global warming will affect the ecology and metabolism of eukaryotic community in coastal sediments.

Population and functional changes in a multispecies co-culture of marine microalgae and cyanobacteria under a combination of different salinity and temperature levels

Changes in the temperature or salinity of ocean waters can affect marine organisms at multiple trophic levels. Both environmental variables could have an impact on marine microalgae populations. Therefore, the effect of the combination of three levels of temperature (20, 24 and 28 °C), and three levels of salinity (33, 36, and 39 PSU) were evaluated on the growth of a multispecies community of five common species of phytoplankton: (one cyanobacteria, Synechococcus sp., and four microalgae, Chaetoceros gracilis, Amphidinium carterae, Pleurochrysis roscoffensis and Rhodomonas baltica). The co-culture was monitored by flow cytometry under controlled conditions in a 96 h study. The effect of both variables on dissolved oxygen concentrations was measured using the SDR SensorDish Reader system. The results demonstrated that Synechococcus sp., C. gracilis, and A. carterae displayed a high growth at the temperature of 28 °C combined with the lowest salinity assayed. However, salinity increases negatively affected the growth of P. roscoffensis and R. baltica. Decreased salinity combined with decreased temperature exhibited a higher net O2 production. The interaction of two environmental factors related to global change such as temperature and salinity can cause structural (community growth) and functional (net oxygen production) changes in a phytoplanktonic community.

Diverse Transcriptome Responses to Salinity Change in Atlantic Cod Subpopulations

Adaptation to environmental variation caused by global climate change is a significant aspect of fisheries management and ecology. A reduction in ocean salinity is visible in near-shore areas, especially in the Baltic Sea, where it is affecting the Atlantic cod population. Cod is one of the most significant teleost species, with high ecological and economical value worldwide. The population of cod in the Baltic Sea has been traditionally divided into two subpopulations (western and eastern) existing in higher- and lower-salinity waters, respectively. In recent decades, both Baltic cod subpopulations have declined massively. One of the reasons for the poor condition of cod in the Baltic Sea is environmental factors, including salinity. Thus, in this study, an oligonucleotide microarray was applied to explore differences between Baltic cod subpopulations in response to salinity fluctuations. For this purpose, an exposure experiment was conducted consisting of salinity elevation and reduction, and gene expression was measured in gill tissue. We found 400 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) involved in the immune response, metabolism, programmed cell death, cytoskeleton, and extracellular matrix that showed a subpopulation-dependent pattern. These findings indicate that osmoregulation in Baltic cod is a complex process, and that western and eastern Baltic cod subpopulations respond differently to salinity changes.

Fifteen research needs for understanding climate change impacts on ecosystems and society in the Norwegian High North

There is an urgent need to understand and address the risks associated with a warming climate for ecosystems and societies in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. There are major gaps in our understanding of the complex effects of climate change-including extreme events, cascading impacts across ecosystems, and the underlying socioecological dynamics and feedbacks-all of which need collaborative efforts to be resolved. Here, we present results where climate scientists, ecologists, social scientists, and practitioners were asked to identify the most urgent research needs for understanding climate change impacts and to identify the actions for reducing future risks in catchment areas in the Norwegian High North, a region that encompasses both Arctic and sub-Arctic climates in northern Norway. From a list of 77 questions, our panel of 19 scientists and practitioners identified 15 research needs that should be urgently addressed. We particularly urge researchers to investigate cross-ecosystem impacts and the socioecological feedbacks that could amplify or reduce risks for society.

Multiyear analysis uncovers coordinated seasonality in stocks and composition of the planktonic food web in the Baltic Sea proper

The planktonic realm from bacteria to zooplankton provides the baseline for pelagic aquatic food webs. However, multiple trophic levels are seldomly included in time series studies, hampering a holistic understanding of the influence of seasonal dynamics and species interactions on food web structure and biogeochemical cycles. Here, we investigated plankton community composition, focusing on bacterio-, phyto- and large mesozooplankton, and how biotic and abiotic factors correlate at the Linnaeus Microbial Observatory (LMO) station in the Baltic Sea from 2011 to 2018. Plankton communities structures showed pronounced dynamic shifts with recurring patterns. Summarizing the parts of the planktonic microbial food web studied here to total carbon, a picture emerges with phytoplankton consistently contributing > 39% while bacterio- and large mesozooplankton contributed ~ 30% and ~ 7%, respectively, during summer. Cyanophyceae, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria were important groups among the prokaryotes. Importantly, Dinophyceae, and not Bacillariophyceae, dominated the autotrophic spring bloom whereas Litostomatea (ciliates) and Appendicularia contributed significantly to the consumer entities together with the more traditionally observed mesozooplankton, Copepoda and Cladocera. Our findings of seasonality in both plankton composition and carbon stocks emphasize the importance of time series analyses of food web structure for characterizing the regulation of biogeochemical cycles and appropriately constraining ecosystem models.

Pseudomonas ability to utilize different carbon substrates and adaptation influenced by protozoan grazing

Bacteria are major utilizers of dissolved organic matter in aquatic systems. In coastal areas bacteria are supplied with a mixture of food sources, spanning from refractive terrestrial dissolved organic matter to labile marine autochthonous organic matter. Modelling scenarios indicate that in northern coastal areas, the inflow of terrestrial organic matter will increase, and autochthonous production will decrease, thus bacteria will experience a change in the food source composition. How bacteria will cope with such changes is not known. Here, we tested the ability of an isolated bacterium from the northern Baltic Sea coast, Pseudomonas sp., to adapt to varying substrates. We performed a 7-months chemostat experiment, where three different substrates were provided: glucose, representing labile autochthonous organic carbon, sodium benzoate representing refractive organic matter, and acetate - a labile but low energy food source. Growth rate has been pointed out as a key factor for fast adaptation, and since protozoan grazers speed-up the growth rate we added a ciliate to half of the incubations. The results show that the isolated Pseudomonas is adapted to utilize both labile and ring-structured refractive substrates. The growth rate was the highest on the benzoate substrate, and the production increased over time indicating that adaptation did occur. Further, our findings indicate that predation can cause Pseudomonas to change their phenotype to resist and promote survival in various carbon substrates. Genome sequencing reveals different mutations in the genome of adapted populations compared to the native populations, suggesting the adaptation of Pseudomonas sp. To changing environment.

Stable isotope analysis in food web research: Systematic review and a vision for the future for the Baltic Sea macro-region

Food web research provides essential insights into ecosystem functioning, but practical applications in ecosystem-based management are hampered by a current lack of knowledge synthesis. To address this gap, we provide the first systematic review of ecological studies applying stable isotope analysis, a pivotal method in food web research, in the heavily anthropogenically impacted Baltic Sea macro-region. We identified a thriving research field, with 164 publications advancing a broad range of fundamental and applied research topics, but also found structural shortcomings limiting ecosystem-level understanding. We argue that enhanced collaboration and integration, including the systematic submission of Baltic Sea primary datasets to stable isotope databases, would help to overcome many of the current shortcomings, unify the scattered knowledge base, and promote future food web research and science-based resource management. The effort undertaken here demonstrates the value of macro-regional synthesis, in enhancing access to existing data and supporting strategic planning of research agendas.

Population dynamics of Baltic herring since the Viking Age revealed by ancient DNA and genomics

The world's oceans are currently facing major stressors in the form of overexploitation and anthropogenic climate change. The Baltic Sea was home to the first "industrial" fishery ∼800 y ago targeting the Baltic herring, a species that is still economically and culturally important today. Yet, the early origins of marine industries and the long-term ecological consequences of historical and contemporary fisheries remain debated. Here, we study long-term population dynamics of Baltic herring to evaluate the past impacts of humans on the marine environment. We combine modern whole-genome data with ancient DNA (aDNA) to identify the earliest-known long-distance herring trade in the region, illustrating that extensive fish trade began during the Viking Age. We further resolve population structure within the Baltic and observe demographic independence for four local herring stocks over at least 200 generations. It has been suggested that overfishing at Øresund in the 16th century resulted in a demographic shift from autumn-spawning to spring-spawning herring dominance in the Baltic. We show that while the Øresund fishery had a negative impact on the western Baltic herring stock, the demographic shift to spring-spawning dominance did not occur until the 20th century. Instead, demographic reconstructions reveal population trajectories consistent with expected impacts of environmental change and historical reports on shifting fishing targets over time. This study illustrates the joint impact of climate change and human exploitation on marine species as well as the role historical ecology can play in conservation and management policies.

Responses of coastal fishery resources to rapid environmental changes

Coastal systems experience strong impacts of ongoing environmental change, affecting fish communities and subsequently fishery yields. In the Baltic Sea, the combined effects of climate-induced changes and eutrophication-related pressures constitute major threats to its living resources. Although much work has been devoted to uncovering environmental impacts on the commercially most valuable fish stocks, only little is known about community-wide responses of fished species and how environmental change may affect their yield. In this study, the authors use a joint species distribution modelling framework to disentangle environmental impacts on species-specific fishery yields of 16 fished species along the coast of Finland over four decades. The authors show that environmental covariates substantially contributed to variations in fishery yields and are likely to have strong impacts on fished resources also in the future. Salinity and near-bottom oxygen concentration emerged as the strongest environmental drivers of yields at the community level, whereas temperature was particularly important for cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) yields. The authors found shore density to be an important predictor for fisheries resources especially for freshwater fish. The results of this study suggest that the changes in environmental conditions during the past four decades had a positive effect on the yields of freshwater and warm-affinity species, whereas yields of marine cold-affinity species have been mainly negatively affected by contracting favourable habitats, becoming warmer and less saline.

Seasonal dynamics in picocyanobacterial abundance and clade composition at coastal and offshore stations in the Baltic Sea

Picocyanobacteria (< 2 µm in diameter) are significant contributors to total phytoplankton biomass. Due to the high diversity within this group, their seasonal dynamics and relationship with environmental parameters, especially in brackish waters, are largely unknown. In this study, the abundance and community composition of phycoerythrin rich picocyanobacteria (PE-SYN) and phycocyanin rich picocyanobacteria (PC-SYN) were monitored at a coastal (K-station) and at an offshore station (LMO; ~ 10 km from land) in the Baltic Sea over three years (2018–2020). Cell abundances of picocyanobacteria correlated positively to temperature and negatively to nitrate (NO₃) concentration. While PE-SYN abundance correlated to the presence of nitrogen fixers, PC-SYN abundance was linked to stratification/shallow waters. The picocyanobacterial targeted amplicon sequencing revealed an unprecedented diversity of 2169 picocyanobacterial amplicons sequence variants (ASVs). A unique assemblage of distinct picocyanobacterial clades across seasons was identified. Clade A/B dominated the picocyanobacterial community, except during summer when low NO_3, high phosphate (PO₄) concentrations and warm temperatures promoted S5.2 dominance. This study, providing multiyear data, links picocyanobacterial populations to environmental parameters. The difference in the response of the two functional groups and clades underscore the need for further high-resolution studies to understand their role in the ecosystem.

Inputs of Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Matter Enhance Bacterial Production and Methylmercury Formation in Oxic Coastal Water

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a potent neurotoxin commonly found in aquatic environments and primarily formed by microbial methylation of inorganic divalent mercury (Hg(II)) under anoxic conditions. Recent evidence, however, points to the production of MeHg also in oxic pelagic waters, but the magnitude and the drivers for this process remain unclear. Here, we performed a controlled experiment testing the hypothesis that inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) to coastal waters enhance MeHg formation via increased bacterial activity. Natural brackish seawater from a coastal area of the Baltic Sea was exposed to environmentally relevant levels of Hg(II) and additions of tDOM according to climate change scenarios. MeHg formation was observed to be coupled to elevated bacterial production rates, which, in turn, was linked to input levels of tDOM. The increased MeHg formation was, however, not coupled to any specific change in bacterial taxonomic composition nor to an increased abundance of known Hg(II) methylation genes. Instead, we found that the abundance of genes for the overall bacterial carbon metabolism was higher under increased tDOM additions. The findings of this study may have important ecological implications in a changing global climate by pointing to the risk of increased exposure of MeHg to pelagic biota.

Predicting ecological impacts of the invasive brush-clawed shore crab under environmental change

Globally, the number of invasive non-indigenous species is continually rising, representing a major driver of biodiversity declines and a growing socio-economic burden. Hemigrapsus takanoi, the Japanese brush-clawed shore crab, is a highly successful invader in European seas. However, the ecological consequences of this invasion have remained unexamined under environmental changes-such as climatic warming and desalination, which are projected in the Baltic Sea-impeding impact prediction and management. Recently, the comparative functional response (resource use across resource densities) has been pioneered as a reliable approach to quantify and predict the ecological impacts of invasive non-indigenous species under environmental contexts. This study investigated the functional response of H. takanoi factorially between different crab sexes and under environmental conditions predicted for the Baltic Sea in the contexts of climate warming (16 and 22 °C) and desalination (15 and 10), towards blue mussel Mytilus edulis prey provided at different densities. Hemigrapsus takanoi displayed a potentially population-destabilising Type II functional response (i.e. inversely-density dependent) towards mussel prey under all environmental conditions, characterised by high feeding rates at low prey densities that could extirpate prey populations-notwithstanding high in-field abundances of M. edulis. Males exhibited higher feeding rates than females under all environmental conditions. Higher temperatures reduced the feeding rate of male H. takanoi, but did not affect the feeding rate of females. Salinity did not have a clear effect on feeding rates for either sex. These results provide insights into interactions between biological invasions and climate change, with future warming potentially lessening the impacts of this rapidly spreading marine invader, depending on the underlying population demographics and abundances.

Microbial Interactions - Underexplored Links Between Public Health Relevant Bacteria and Protozoa in Coastal Environments

The co-existence of bacteria and protozoa in aquatic environments has led to the evolution of predation defense mechanisms by the bacteria. Some of the predation-resistant bacteria (PRB) are also pathogenic to humans and other mammals. The links between PRB and protozoa in natural aquatic systems are poorly known, but they are important in predicting outbreaks and determining the long-term consequences of a contamination event. To elucidate co-occurrence patterns between PRB (16S rRNA) and bacterivorous protozoa (18S rRNA), we performed a field study in a coastal area in the northern Baltic Sea. Interactions between bacteria and protozoa were explored by using two complementary statistical tools. We found co-occurrence patterns between specific PRB and protozoa, such as Legionella and Ciliophora, and we also found that the interactions are genotype-specific as, for example, Rickettsia. The PRB sequence diversity was larger in bays and freshwater inlets compared to offshore sites, indicating local adaptions. Considering the PRB diversity in the freshwater in combination with the large spring floods in the area, freshwater influxes should be considered a potential source of PRB in the coastal northern Baltic Sea. These findings are relevant for the knowledge of survival and dispersal of potential pathogens in the environment.

Long-Term Warming of Baltic Sea Coastal Waters Affects Bacterial Communities in Bottom Water and Sediments Differently

Coastal marine ecosystems are some of the most diverse natural habitats while being highly vulnerable in the face of climate change. The combination of anthropogenic influence from land and ongoing climate change will likely have severe effects on the environment, but the precise response remains uncertain. This study compared an unaffected "control" Baltic Sea bay to a "heated" bay that has undergone artificial warming from cooling water release from a nuclear power plant for ~50 years. This heated the water in a similar degree to IPCC SSP5-8.5 predictions by 2100 as natural systems to study temperature-related climate change effects. Bottom water and surface sediment bacterial communities and their biogeochemical processes were investigated to test how future coastal water warming alters microbial communities; shifts seasonal patterns, such as increased algae blooming; and influences nutrient and energy cycling, including elevated respiration rates. 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and geochemical parameters demonstrated that heated bay bottom water bacterial communities were influenced by increased average temperatures across changing seasons, resulting in an overall Shannon's H diversity loss and shifts in relative abundances. In contrast, Shannon's diversity increased in the heated surface sediments. The results also suggested a trend toward smaller-sized microorganisms within the heated bay bottom waters, with a 30% increased relative abundance of small size picocyanobacteria in the summer (June). Furthermore, bacterial communities in the heated bay surface sediment displayed little seasonal variability but did show potential changes of long-term increased average temperature in the interplay with related effects on bottom waters. Finally, heated bay metabolic gene predictions from the 16S rRNA gene sequences suggested raised anaerobic processes closer to the sediment-water interface. In conclusion, climate change will likely alter microbial seasonality and diversity, leading to prolonged and increased algae blooming and elevated respiration rates within coastal waters.

Water Quality and Microbiological Contamination across the Fish Marketing Chain: A Case Study in the Peruvian Amazon (Lagoon Yarinacocha)

The contamination of the surface water of lagoons is a common problem in developing countries, and can affect fishing activities. A case study was conducted on water quality and microbiological contamination of the fishing marketing chain in the Peruvian Amazon (Laguna de Yarinacocha). The microbiological, physical–chemical and parasitological parameters of the surface water were evaluated in three points of the lagoon near the landing stage; and microbiological parameters of facilities, handlers and three species of fish (Prochilodus nigricans, Mylossoma duriventre and Siluriforme spp.). In the water, there were coliform counts ≥ 23 (Most probable number—MPN)/100 mL, Escherichia coli ≥ 3.6 MPN/100 mL, and Pseudomona spp. up to 2.2 MPN/100 mL; high turbidity and variable amounts of parasites. In facilities and handlers, high levels of coliforms, mainly Escherichia coli, and Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli, were found in M. duriventre meat. A poor quality of the surface water of the lagoon is concluded that compromises part of the fishing marketing chain, mainly facilities and manipulators. Furthermore, the levels of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli in fish meat show poor handling practices and possible risk of contamination by water sources.

Response of Coastal Shewanella and Duganella Bacteria to Planktonic and Terrestrial Food Substrates

Global warming scenarios indicate that in subarctic regions, the precipitation will increase in the future. Coastal bacteria will thus receive increasing organic carbon sources from land runoff. How such changes will affect the function and taxonomic composition of coastal bacteria is poorly known. We performed a 10-day experiment with two isolated bacteria: Shewanella baltica from a seaside location and Duganella sp. from a river mouth, and provided them with a plankton and a river extract as food substrate. The bacterial growth and carbon consumption were monitored over the experimental period. Shewanella and Duganella consumed 40% and 30% of the plankton extract, respectively, while the consumption of the river extract was low for both bacteria, ∼1%. Shewanella showed the highest bacterial growth efficiency (BGE) (12%) when grown on plankton extract, while when grown on river extract, the BGE was only 1%. Duganella showed low BGE when grown on plankton extract (< 1%) and slightly higher BGE when grown on river extract (2%). The cell growth yield of Duganella was higher than that of Shewanella when grown on river extract. These results indicate that Duganella is more adapted to terrestrial organic substrates with low nutritional availability, while Shewanella is adapted to eutrophied conditions. The different growth performance of the bacteria could be traced to genomic variations. A closely related genome of Shewanella was shown to harbor genes for the sequestration of autochthonously produced carbon substrates, while Duganella contained genes for the degradation of relatively refractive terrestrial organic matter. The results may reflect the influence of environmental drivers on bacterial community composition in natural aquatic environments. Elevated inflows of terrestrial organic matter to coastal areas in subarctic regions would lead to increased occurrence of bacteria adapted to the degradation of complex terrestrial compounds with a low bioavailability.

Case Report: Vibrio fluvialis isolated from a wound infection after a piercing trauma in the Baltic Sea

Vibrio spp. are Gram-negative bacteria found in marine ecosystems. Non-cholera Vibrio spp. can cause gastrointestinal infections and can also lead to wound infections through exposure to contaminated seawater. Vibrio infections are increasingly documented from the Baltic Sea due to extended warm weather periods. We describe the first isolation of Vibrio fluvialis from a wound infection acquired by an impalement injury in the shallow waters of the Baltic Sea. The severe infection required amputation of the third toe. Whole genome sequencing of the isolate was performed and revealed a genome consisting of two circular chromosomes with a size of 1.57 and 3.24 Mb.

Seasonality of Coastal Picophytoplankton Growth, Nutrient Limitation, and Biomass Contribution

Picophytoplankton in the Baltic Sea includes the simplest unicellular cyanoprokaryotes (Synechococcus/Cyanobium) and photosynthetic picoeukaryotes (PPE). Picophytoplankton are thought to be a key component of the phytoplankton community, but their seasonal dynamics and relationships with nutrients and temperature are largely unknown. We monitored pico- and larger phytoplankton at a coastal site in Kalmar Sound (K-Station) weekly during 2018. Among the cyanoprokaryotes, phycoerythrin-rich picocyanobacteria (PE-rich) dominated in spring and summer while phycocyanin-rich picocyanobacteria (PC-rich) dominated during autumn. PE-rich and PC-rich abundances peaked during summer (1.1 × 10⁵ and 2.0 × 10⁵ cells mL^–1) while PPE reached highest abundances in spring (1.1 × 10⁵ cells mL^–1). PPE was the main contributor to the total phytoplankton biomass (up to 73%). To assess nutrient limitation, bioassays with combinations of nitrogen (NO₃ or NH₄) and phosphorus additions were performed. PE-rich and PC-rich growth was mainly limited by nitrogen, with a preference for NH₄ at >15°C. The three groups had distinct seasonal dynamics and different temperature ranges: 10°C and 17–19°C for PE-rich, 13–16°C for PC-rich and 11–15°C for PPE. We conclude that picophytoplankton contribute significantly to the carbon cycle in the coastal Baltic Sea and underscore the importance of investigating populations to assess the consequences of the combination of high temperature and NH₄ in a future climate.

Consistency of thresholds for eutrophication assessments, examples and recommendations

International harmonisation of management goals for eutrophication processes in coastal waters, requiring reduction of discharges and depositions of nutrients and organic matter, needs coordinated assessments and measures. This is especially necessary in open areas, connected by currents and mixing processes with trans-boundary exchanges. Management goals, defined nationally as local thresholds for nutrients and chlorophyll-a, had been applied recently (2006-2014) within international eutrophication assessments in the North Sea (OSPAR) and Baltic Sea (HELCOM). Consistency of thresholds for nitrogen nutrients and chlorophyll-a concentrations is tested by mixing diagrams and correlations between nitrogen nutrients (total and inorganic nitrogen) and chlorophyll-a. Results indicate mean consistent relations, but single deviations as in the continental coastal water of the North Sea surpassed means by a factor up to 5 for chlorophyll-a in relation to inorganic nitrogen. Thresholds differed across national borders significantly. Correlations of thresholds and assed data reflect the degree of regional deviations by comparison. Consistency of regionally applied thresholds can be achieved stepwise, by application of regionally correlated means, by adaptation to mixing and parameter relations, and finally by relations of thresholds to natural background concentrations. By this, consistency of international assessments can be improved generally, allowing coordinated management of open coastal waters.

Terrestrial dissolved organic matter inflow drives temporal dynamics of the bacterial community of a subarctic estuary (northern Baltic Sea)

Climate change is projected to cause increased inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to coastal areas in northerly regions. Estuarine bacterial community will thereby receive larger loads of organic matter and inorganic nutrients available for microbial metabolism. The composition of the bacterial community and its ecological functions may thus be affected. We studied the responses of bacterial community to inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter in a subarctic estuary in the northern Baltic Sea, using a 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding approach. Betaproteobacteria dominated during the spring river flush, constituting ~ 60% of the bacterial community. Bacterial diversity increased as the runoff decreased during summer, when Verrucomicrobia, Betaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Gammaproteobacteria and Planctomycetes dominated the community. Network analysis revealed that a larger number of associations between bacterial populations occurred during the summer than in spring. Betaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes populations appeared to display similar correlations to environmental factors. In spring, freshly discharged organic matter favoured specialists, while in summer a mix of autochthonous and terrestrial organic matter promoted the development of generalists. Our study indicates that increased inflows of terrestrial organic matter-loaded freshwater to coastal areas would promote specialist bacteria, which in turn might enhance the transformation of terrestrial organic matter in estuarine environments.

Identifying biotic drivers of population dynamics in a benthic-pelagic community

Benthic species and communities are linked to pelagic zooplankton through life-stages encompassing both benthic and pelagic habitats and through a mutual dependency on primary producers as a food source. Many zooplankton taxa contribute to the sedimentary system as benthic eggs. Our main aim was to investigate the nature of the population level biotic interactions between and within these two seemingly independent communities, both dependent on the pelagic primary production, while simultaneously accounting for environmental drivers (salinity, temperature, and oxygen conditions). To this end, we applied multivariate autoregressive state-space models to long (1966-2007) time series of annual abundance data, comparing models with and without interspecific interactions, and models with and without environmental variables included. We were not able to detect any direct coupling between sediment-dwelling benthic taxa and pelagic copepods and cladocerans on the annual scale, but the most parsimonious model indicated that interactions within the benthic community are important. There were also positive residual correlations between the copepods and cladocerans potentially reflecting the availability of a shared resource or similar seasonal dependence, whereas both groups tended to correlate negatively with the zoobenthic taxa. The most notable single interaction within the benthic community was a tendency for a negative effect of Limecola balthica on the amphipods Monoporeia affinis and Pontoporeia femorata which can help explain the observed decrease in amphipods due to increased competitive interference.

Pipefish Locally Adapted to Low Salinity in the Baltic Sea Retain Phenotypic Plasticity to Cope With Ancestral Salinity Levels

Genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity facilitate the migration into new habitats and enable organisms to cope with a rapidly changing environment. In contrast to genetic adaptation that spans multiple generations as an evolutionary process, phenotypic plasticity allows acclimation within the life-time of an organism. Genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are usually studied in isolation, however, only by including their interactive impact, we can understand acclimation and adaptation in nature. We aimed to explore the contribution of adaptation and plasticity in coping with an abiotic (salinity) and a biotic (Vibriobacteria) stressor using six different populations of the broad-nosed pipefishSyngnathus typhlethat originated from either high [14–17 Practical Salinity Unit (PSU)] or low (7–11 PSU) saline environments along the German coastline of the Baltic Sea. We exposed wild caught animals, to either high (15 PSU) or low (7 PSU) salinity, representing native and novel salinity conditions and allowed animals to mate. After male pregnancy, offspring was split and each half was exposed to one of the two salinities and infected withVibrio alginolyticusbacteria that were evolved at either of the two salinities in a fully reciprocal design. We investigated life-history traits of fathers and expression of 47 target genes in mothers and offspring. Pregnant males originating from high salinity exposed to low salinity were highly susceptible to opportunistic fungi infections resulting in decreased offspring size and number. In contrast, no signs of fungal infection were identified in fathers originating from low saline conditions suggesting that genetic adaptation has the potential to overcome the challenges encountered at low salinity. Offspring from parents with low saline origin survived better at low salinity suggesting genetic adaptation to low salinity. In addition, gene expression analyses of juveniles indicated patterns of local adaptation,trans-generational plasticity and developmental plasticity. In conclusion, our study suggests that pipefish are locally adapted to the low salinity in their environment, however, they are retaining phenotypic plasticity, which allows them to also cope with ancestral salinity levels and prevailing pathogens.

The importance of adjusting contaminant concentrations using environmental data: A retrospective study of 25 years data in Baltic blue mussels

To improve the statistical power of detecting changes in contaminant concentrations over time, it is critical to reduce both the within- and between-year variability by adjusting the data for relevant confounding variables. In this study, we present a method for handling multiple confounding variables in contaminant monitoring. We evaluate the highly variable temporal trends of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in blue mussels from the central Baltic Sea during the period 1987-2016 (data from 25 years during this period) using various regression analyses. As potential explanatory variables related to PAH exposure, we use mussel size and retrospective analyses of mussel δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C (representing large scale biogeochemical changes as a result of e.g. eutrophication and terrestrial inputs). Environmental data from concurrent monitoring programmes (seasonal data on Chlorophyll-a, salinity and temperature in the water column, bioturbation of sediment dwelling fauna) were included as variables related to feeding conditions. The concentrations of high-molecular-weight and low-molecular-weight PAHs in blue mussel were statistically linked to different combinations of environmental variables. Adjustment using these predictors decreased the coefficient of variation in all 15 PAHs tested and improved the statistical power to detect changes. Moreover, the adjustment also resulted in a significant downward trend for fluoranthene that could not be detected initially. For another PAH, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, adjustment which reduced variation resulted in the loss of an apparent downward trend over time. Hence, our study highlights the importance of using auxilliary data to reduce variability caused by environmental factors with general effects on physiology when assessing contaminant time trends. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of extensive and well designed monitoring programmes to provide relevant data.

Effects of sea ice and wind speed on phytoplankton spring bloom in central and southern Baltic Sea

In this study, the effects of sea ice and wind speed on the timing and composition of phytoplankton spring bloom in the central and southern Baltic Sea are investigated by a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and observational data. The modelling experiment compared the results of a reference run in the presence of sea ice with those of a run in the absence of sea ice, which confirmed that ecological conditions differed significantly for both the scenarios. It has been found that diatoms dominate the phytoplankton biomass in the absence of sea ice, whereas dinoflagellates dominate the biomass in the presence of thin sea ice. The study concludes that under moderate ice conditions (representing the last few decades), dinoflagellates dominate the spring bloom phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic Sea, whereas diatoms will be dominant in the future as a result of climate change i.e. in the absence of sea ice.

Temperature Stress Induces Shift From Co-Existence to Competition for Organic Carbon in Microalgae-Bacterial Photobioreactor Community - Enabling Continuous Production of Microalgal Biomass

To better predict the consequences of environmental change on aquatic microbial ecosystems it is important to understand what enables community resilience. The mechanisms by which a microbial community maintain its overall function, for example, the cycling of carbon, when exposed to a stressor, can be explored by considering three concepts: biotic interactions, functional adaptations, and community structure. Interactions between species are traditionally considered as, e.g., mutualistic, parasitic, or neutral but are here broadly defined as either coexistence or competition, while functions relate to their metabolism (e.g., autotrophy or heterotrophy) and roles in ecosystem functioning (e.g., oxygen production, organic matter degradation). The term structure here align with species richness and diversity, where a more diverse community is though to exhibit a broader functional capacity than a less diverse community. These concepts have here been combined with ecological theories commonly used in resilience studies, i.e., adaptive cycles, panarchy, and cross-scale resilience, that describe how the status and behavior at one trophic level impact that of surrounding levels. This allows us to explore the resilience of a marine microbial community, cultivated in an outdoor photobioreactor, when exposed to a naturally occurring seasonal stress. The culture was monitored for 6weeks during which it was exposed to two different temperature regimes (21 ± 2 and 11 ± 1°C). Samples were taken for metatranscriptomic analysis, in order to assess the regulation of carbon uptake and utilization, and for amplicon (18S and 16S rRNA gene) sequencing, to characterize the community structure of both autotrophs (dominated by the green microalgae Mychonastes) and heterotrophs (associated bacterioplankton). Differential gene expression analyses suggested that community function at warm temperatures was based on concomitant utilization of inorganic and organic carbon assigned to autotrophs and heterotrophs, while at colder temperatures, the uptake of organic carbon was performed primarily by autotrophs. Upon the shift from high to low temperature, community interactions shifted from coexistence to competition for organic carbon. Network analysis indicated that the community structure showed opposite trends for autotrophs and heterotrophs in having either high or low diversity. Despite an abrupt change of temperature, the microbial community as a whole responded in a way that maintained the overall level of diversity and function within and across autotrophic and heterotrophic levels. This is in line with cross-scale resilience theory describing how ecosystems may balance functional overlaps within and functional redundancy between levels in order to be resilient to environmental change (such as temperature).

Will Climate Change Influence Production and Environmental Pathways of Halogenated Natural Products?

Thousands of halogenated natural products (HNPs) pervade the terrestrial and marine environment. HNPs are generated by biotic and abiotic processes and range in complexity from low molecular mass natural halocarbons (nHCs, mostly halomethanes and haloethanes) to compounds of higher molecular mass which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens (hHNPs). nHCs have a key role in regulating tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, while some hHNPs bioaccumulate and have toxic properties similar those of anthropogenic-persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Both chemical classes have common sources: biosynthesis by marine bacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae, and some invertebrate animals, and both may be similarly impacted by alteration of production and transport pathways in a changing climate. The nHCs scientific community is advanced in investigating sources, atmospheric and oceanic transport, and forecasting climate change impacts through modeling. By contrast, these activities are nascent or nonexistent for hHNPs. The goals of this paper are to (1) review production, sources, distribution, and transport pathways of nHCs and hHNPs through water and air, pointing out areas of commonality, (2) by analogy to nHCs, argue that climate change may alter these factors for hHNPs, and (3) suggest steps to improve linkage between nHCs and hHNPs science to better understand and predict climate change impacts.

Linking consumer physiological status to food-web structure and prey food value in the Baltic Sea

Declining physiological status in marine top consumers has been observed worldwide. We investigate changes in the physiological status and population/community traits of six consumer species/groups in the Baltic Sea (1993-2014), spanning four trophic levels and using metrics currently operational or proposed as indicators of food-web status. We ask whether the physiological status of consumers can be explained by food-web structure and prey food value. This was tested using partial least square regressions with status metrics for gray seal, cod, herring, sprat and the benthic predatory isopod Saduria as response variables, and abundance and food value of their prey, abundance of competitors and predators as predictors. We find evidence that the physiological status of cod, herring and sprat is influenced by competition, predation, and prey availability; herring and sprat status also by prey size. Our study highlights the need for management approaches that account for species interactions across multiple trophic levels.

Temporal Trends (1981-2013) of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances and Total Fluorine in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua)

Temporal trends from 1981 to 2013 of 28 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were investigated in liver tissue of cod (Gadus morhua) sampled near southeast Gotland, in the Baltic Sea. A total of 10 PFASs were detected, with ∑₂₈ PFAS geometric mean concentrations ranging from 6.03 to 23.9 ng/g ww. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFAS, which increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Most long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids increased at rates of 3.9 to 7.3% per year except for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), which did not change significantly over time. The perfluoroalkyl acid precursors perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonic acid were detected, of which the former (FOSA) declined at a rate of -4.4% per year, possibly reflecting its phase-out starting in 2000. An alternate time trend analysis from 2000 to 2013 produced slightly different results, with most compounds increasing at slower rates compared to the entire study period. An exception was perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), increasing at a faster rate of 3.7% measured from 2000 on, compared to the 3.0% per year measured starting from 1981. Analysis of the total fluorine content of the samples revealed large amounts of unidentified fluorine; however, its composition (organic or inorganic) remains unclear. Significant negative correlations were found between concentrations of individual PFASs (with the exception of PFOS) and liver somatic index. In addition, body length was negatively correlated with PFOA and perfluorononanoate, but positively correlated with perfluorododecanoate (PFDoDA) and FOSA. Additional studies on endocrine, immunological, and metabolic effects of PFAS in marine fish are essential to assess the environmental risk of these substances. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:300-309. © 2019 SETAC.

Zooplankton indicator-based assessment in relation to site location and abiotic factors: a case study from the Gulf of Riga

There are a number of zooplankton parameters proposed as indicators to evaluate environmental status of marine ecosystems. Mean size and total stock (MSTS) is the only zooplankton-based and HELCOM (Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission - Helsinki Commission)-approved core indicator. MSTS was developed to evaluate the environmental status of the Baltic Sea based on total biomass (or abundance) and mean body weight of mesozooplankton. This indicator reflects status of the food web and zooplankton biodiversity. Both are qualitative descriptors for determining good environmental status (GES) as defined by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC. However, the existing indicator concept is applicable to the extent that it characterizes off-shore pelagic habitats, while use of MSTS for coastal habitats remains challenging. In this case study, we aimed to assess and discuss performance of MSTS applied to mesozooplankton data from the shallow Gulf of Riga. Both off-shore and coastal communities were included in the study. MSTS responses to variable environmental factors (temperature, salinity and riverine runoff) were analysed. Temporal variations in temperature revealed response in mean size, whereas salinity covaried with total stock (both - biomass and abundance). However, spatial variations of MSTS parameters stayed unexplained. The results demonstrate difficulties with and provide possible solutions for MSTS-based assessment, with a particular emphasis on coastal waters. The use of mesozooplankton abundance as a determinant parameter for assessment of coastal waters and substitution of the corresponding 99% confidence interval of the mean as an assessment value instead of the mean have been considered.

Environmental variables driving species and genus level changes in annual plankton biomass

Abiotic variables subject to global change are known to affect plankton biomasses, and these effects can be species-specific. Here, we investigate the environmental drivers of annual biomass using plankton data from the Gulf of Finland in the northern Baltic Sea, spanning years 1993-2016. We estimated annual biomass time-series of 31 nanoplankton and microplankton species and genera from day-level data, accounting for the average phenology and wind. We found wind effects on day-level biomass in 16 taxa. We subsequently used state-space models to connect the annual biomass changes with potential environmental drivers (temperature, salinity, stratification, ice cover and inorganic nutrients), simultaneously accounting for temporal trends. We found clear environmental effects influencing the annual biomasses of Dinobryon faculiferum, Eutreptiella spp., Protoperidinium bipes, Pseudopedinella spp., Snowella spp. and Thalassiosira baltica and indicative effects in 10 additional taxa. These effects mostly concerned temperature, salinity or stratification. Together, these 16 taxa represent two-thirds of the summer biomass in the sampled community. The inter-annual variability observed in salinity and temperature is relatively low compared to scenarios of predicted change in these variables. Therefore, the potential impacts of the presented effects on plankton biomasses are considerable.

Drivers of phytoplankton production and community structure in nutrient-poor estuaries receiving terrestrial organic inflow

The influence of nutrient availability and light conditions on phytoplankton size-structure, nutritional strategy and production was studied in a phosphorus-poor estuary in the northern Baltic Sea receiving humic-rich river water. The relative biomass of mixotrophic nanophytoplankton peaked in spring when heterotrophic bacterial production was high, while autotrophic microphytoplankton had their maximum in summer when primary production displayed highest values. Limiting substance (phosphorus) only showed small temporal variations, and the day light was at saturating levels all through the study period. We also investigated if the phytoplankton taxonomic richness influences the production. Structural equation modelling indicated that an increase of the taxonomic richness during the warm summer combined with slightly higher phosphorus concentration lead to increased resource use efficiency, which in turn caused higher phytoplankton biomass and primary production. Our results suggest that climate warming would lead to higher primary production in northerly shallow coastal areas, which are influenced by humic-rich river run-off from un-disturbed terrestrial systems.

Effects of allochthonous dissolved organic matter input on microbial composition and nitrogen-cycling genes at two contrasting estuarine sites

Heterotrophic bacteria are important drivers of nitrogen (N) cycling and the processing of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Projected increases in precipitation will potentially cause increased loads of riverine DOM to the Baltic Sea and likely affect the composition and function of bacterioplankton communities. To investigate this, the effects of riverine DOM from two different catchment areas (agricultural and forest) on natural bacterioplankton assemblages from two contrasting sites in the Baltic Sea were examined. Two microcosm experiments were carried out, where the community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing), the composition of a suite of N-cycling genes (metagenomics) and the abundance and transcription of ammonia monooxygenase (amoA) genes involved in nitrification (quantitative PCR) were investigated. The river water treatments evoked a significant response in bacterial growth, but the effects on overall community composition and the representation of N-cycling genes were limited. Instead, treatment effects were reflected in the prevalence of specific taxonomic families, specific N-related functions and in the transcription of amoA genes. The study suggests that bacterioplankton responses to changes in the DOM pool are constrained to part of the bacterial community, whereas most taxa remain relatively unaffected.

Modeling vitamin B1 transfer to consumers in the aquatic food web

Vitamin B1 is an essential exogenous micronutrient for animals. Mass death and reproductive failure in top aquatic consumers caused by vitamin B1 deficiency is an emerging conservation issue in Northern hemisphere aquatic ecosystems. We present for the first time a model that identifies conditions responsible for the constrained flow of vitamin B1 from unicellular organisms to planktivorous fishes. The flow of vitamin B1 through the food web is constrained under anthropogenic pressures of increased nutrient input and, driven by climatic change, increased light attenuation by dissolved substances transported to marine coastal systems. Fishing pressure on piscivorous fish, through increased abundance of planktivorous fish that overexploit mesozooplankton, may further constrain vitamin B1 flow from producers to consumers. We also found that key ecological contributors to the constrained flow of vitamin B1 are a low mesozooplankton biomass, picoalgae prevailing among primary producers and low fluctuations of population numbers of planktonic organisms.

Indirect link between riverine dissolved organic matter and bacterioplankton respiration in a boreal estuary

Increasing loading of terrestrially derived dissolved organic matter tends to enhance bacterioplankton respiration (BR) in boreal estuaries, but knowledge on the mechanisms behind this effect is not complete. We determined the stable isotopic signature of the reactive estuarine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Öre estuary (Baltic Sea) by using the Keeling plot method. The δ¹³C ratio of the estuarine labile DOC varied from -26.0‰ to -18.7‰ with most values resembling those typical for DOC of coastal phytoplanktonic origin (-18 to -24‰), while being distinctly higher than those of DOC from ter-res-trial sources (-28‰ to -27‰). Furthermore, the δ¹³C of the respired carbon was positively correlated to DOC concentrations, indicating that carbon of marine origin increasingly dominated the reactive substrates when input of organic matter into the estuary became higher. This suggests that riverine organic matter mainly affects BR indirectly, by providing nutrients that stimulate the production of phytoplankton-derived reactive DOC in the estuary. Thus, riverine derived DOC per se may not be as important for coastal CO₂ emissions as previously thought.

Projected Changes in Maternal Heat Exposure During Early Pregnancy and the Associated Congenital Heart Defect Burden in the United States

Background More intense and longer-lasting heat events are expected in the United States as a consequence of climate change. This study aimed to project the potential changes in maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy (3-8 weeks post conception) and the associated burden of congenital heart defects ( CHD s) in the future. Methods and Results This study expanded on a prior nationwide case-control study that evaluated the association between CHD s and maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy in summer and spring. We defined multiple indicators of heat exposure, and applied published odds ratios obtained for the matching season of the baseline (1995-2005) into the projection period (2025-2035) to estimate potential changes in CHD burden throughout the United States. Increases in maternal heat exposure were projected across the United States and to be larger in the summer. The Midwest will potentially have the highest increase in summer maternal exposure to excessively hot days (3.42; 95% CI, 2.99-3.88 per pregnancy), heat event frequency (0.52; 95% CI, 0.44-0.60) and heat event duration (1.73; 95% CI, 1.49-1.97). We also found large increases in specific CHD subtypes during spring, including a 34.0% (95% CI, 4.9%-70.8%) increase in conotruncal CHD in the South and a 38.6% (95% CI , 9.9%-75.1%) increase in atrial septal defect in the Northeast. Conclusions Projected increases in maternal heat exposure could result in an increased CHD burden in certain seasons and regions of the United States.

Transgenerational plasticity and selection shape the adaptive potential of sticklebacks to salinity change

In marine climate change research, salinity shifts have been widely overlooked. While widespread desalination effects are expected in higher latitudes, salinity is predicted to increase closer to the equator. We took advantage of the steep salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea as a space-for-time design to address effects of salinity change on populations. Additionally, genetic diversity, a prerequisite for adaptive responses, is reduced in Baltic compared to Atlantic populations. On the one hand, adaptive transgenerational plasticity (TGP) might buffer the effects of environmental change, which may be of particular importance under reduced genetic variation. On the other hand, physiological trade-offs due to environmental stress may hamper parental provisioning to offspring thereby intensifying the impact of climate change across generations (nonadaptive TGP). Here, we studied both hypothesis of adaptive and nonadaptive TGP in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) fish model along the strong salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea in a space-for-time experiment. Each population tolerated desalination well, which was not altered by parental exposure to low salinity. Despite a common marine ancestor, populations locally adapted to low salinity lost their ability to cope with fully marine conditions, resulting in lower survival and reduced relative fitness. Negative transgenerational effects were evident in early life stages, but disappeared after selection via mortality occurred during the first 12-30 days posthatch. Modeling various strengths of selection, we showed that nonadaptive transgenerational plasticity accelerated evolution by increasing directional selection within the offspring generation. Qualitatively, when genetic diversity is large, we predict that such effects will facilitate rapid adaptation and population persistence, while below a certain threshold populations suffer a higher risk of local extinction. Overall, our results suggest that transgenerational plasticity and selection are not independent of each other and thereby highlight a current gap in TGP studies.

Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.

Prevalent reliance of bacterioplankton on exogenous vitamin B1 and precursor availability

Vitamin B1 (B1 herein) is a vital enzyme cofactor required by virtually all cells, including bacterioplankton, which strongly influence aquatic biogeochemistry and productivity and modulate climate on Earth. Intriguingly, bacterioplankton can be de novo B1 synthesizers or B1 auxotrophs, which cannot synthesize B1 de novo and require exogenous B1 or B1 precursors to survive. Recent isolate-based work suggests select abundant bacterioplankton are B1 auxotrophs, but direct evidence of B1 auxotrophy among natural communities is scant. In addition, it is entirely unknown if bulk bacterioplankton growth is ever B1-limited. We show by surveying for B1-related genes in estuarine, marine, and freshwater metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) that most naturally occurring bacterioplankton are B1 auxotrophs. Pyrimidine B1-auxotrophic bacterioplankton numerically dominated metagenomes, but multiple other B1-auxotrophic types and distinct uptake and B1-salvaging strategies were also identified, including dual (pyrimidine and thiazole) and intact B1 auxotrophs that have received little prior consideration. Time-series metagenomes from the Baltic Sea revealed pronounced shifts in the prevalence of multiple B1-auxotrophic types and in the B1-uptake and B1-salvaging strategies over time. Complementarily, we documented B1/precursor limitation of bacterioplankton production in three of five nutrient-amendment experiments at the same time-series station, specifically when intact B1 concentrations were ≤3.7 pM, based on bioassays with a genetically engineered Vibrio anguillarum B1-auxotrophic strain. Collectively, the data presented highlight the prevalent reliance of bacterioplankton on exogenous B1/precursors and on the bioavailability of the micronutrients as an overlooked factor that could influence bacterioplankton growth and succession and thereby the cycling of nutrients and energy in aquatic systems.

Unicellular Eukaryotic Community Response to Temperature and Salinity Variation in Mesocosm Experiments

Climate change has profound impacts on marine biodiversity and biodiversity changes in turn might affect the community sensitivity to impacts of abiotic changes. We used mesocosm experiments and Next Generation Sequencing to study the response of the natural Baltic and Mediterranean unicellular eukaryotic plankton communities (control and +6°C heat shock) to subsequent salinity changes (-5 psu, +5 psu). The impact on Operational Taxonomic Unit (OTU) richness, taxonomic and functional composition and rRNA:rDNA ratios were examined. Our results showed that heat shock leads to lower OTU richness (21% fewer OTUs in the Baltic and 14% fewer in the Mediterranean) and a shift in composition toward pico- and nanophytoplankton and heterotrophic related OTUs. Heat shock also leads to increased rRNA:rDNA ratios for pico- and micrograzers. Less than 18% of shared OTUs were found among the different salinities indicating the crucial role of salinity in shaping communities. The response of rRNA:rDNA ratios varied highly after salinity changes. In both experiments the diversity decrease brought about by heat shock influenced the sensitivity to salinity changes. The heat shock either decreased or increased the sensitivity of the remaining community, depending on whether it removed the more salinity-sensitive or the salinity-tolerant taxa.

Insights into cyanophage-mediated dynamics of nodularin and other non-ribosomal peptides in Nodularia spumigena

The effect of cyanophage infection and lysis on the dynamics of the hepatotoxin nodularin (NOD) and other non-ribosomal peptides (NRPs) produced by cyanobacteria is poorly understood. In this study, changes in concentration of NOD and other NRPs during cyanophage infection of the filamentous cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena were assessed using incubation experiments. Viral infection and lysis were associated with a significant reduction (93% at the 96 h post infection) of N. spumigena cell density. While no correlation between N. spumigena abundance and total concentration of NOD (ng mL^-1) within the infected cells was observed, cellular NOD quota (ng cell^-1) gradually increased in the remaining cyanophage resistant N. spumigena subpopulation. Lysis of N. spumigena cells resulted in a substantial increase (>57 times) of dissolved NOD concentration in the culture medium. The relative concentration of other cyclic (anabaenopeptins) and linear (aeruginosins, spumigins) NRPs produced by N. spumigena also increased in response to cyanophage addition. This study highlights the importance of cyanophage infection on the population toxicity of filamentous cyanobacteria and demonstrates a significant contribution of virus-mediated cell lysis on the conversion of NOD from the particulate to dissolved phase.

Fecal contamination in shallow temperate estuarine lagoon: Source of the pollution and environmental factors

In inner coastal waters such as lagoons, which are very turbid and rich in suspended particles, the survival of fecal pollution microorganisms may find favorable environments. In order to better characterize the sources and dynamics of fecal pollution in a strongly turbid environment, in situ observations were made in the Curonian Lagoon. A combination of traditional monitoring and molecular methods were used. To monitor the water quality, the indicator Escherichia coli (EC) was selected as a proxy for fecal contamination. E. coli concentration correlated with environmental parameters as pH, oxygen and turbidity. The main pollution sources are the sewage outlets in the lagoon area, while the pollution coming via rivers did not play a significant role. Still the human associated E. coli consisted only of 0 up to 20% of analyzed isolates, and did not correlate with the E. coli concentrations in the study sites. The role of birds, especially for potentially virulent E. coli may be underestimated in the lagoon.

Dissolved organic carbon in streams within a subarctic catchment analysed using a GIS/remote sensing approach

Climate change projections show that temperature and precipitation increases can alter the exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and high latitude landscapes, including their freshwaters. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in greenhouse gas emissions, but the impact of catchment productivity on DOC release to subarctic waters remains poorly known, especially at regional scales. We test the hypothesis that increased terrestrial productivity, as indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), generates higher stream DOC concentrations in the Stordalen catchment in subarctic Sweden. Furthermore, we aimed to determine the degree to which other generic catchment properties (elevation, slope) explain DOC concentration, and whether or not land cover variables representing the local vegetation type (e.g., mire, forest) need to be included to obtain adequate predictive models for DOC delivered into rivers. We show that the land cover type, especially the proportion of mire, played a dominant role in the catchment’s release of DOC, while NDVI, slope, and elevation were supporting predictor variables. The NDVI as a single predictor showed weak and inconsistent relationships to DOC concentrations in recipient waters, yet NDVI was a significant positive regulator of DOC in multiple regression models that included land cover variables. Our study illustrates that vegetation type exerts primary control in DOC regulation in Stordalen, while productivity (NDVI) is of secondary importance. Thus, predictive multiple linear regression models for DOC can be utilized combining these different types of explanatory variables.

Bacterioplankton Responses to Increased Organic Carbon and Nutrient Loading in a Boreal Estuary-Separate and Interactive Effects on Growth and Respiration

Increases in the terrestrial export of dissolved organic carbon (C) to rivers may be associated with additional loading of organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal zone. However, little is known about how these resources interact in the regulation of heterotrophic bacterioplankton metabolism in boreal coastal ecosystems. Here, we measured changes in bacterioplankton production (BP) and respiration (BR) in response to full-factorial (C, N, and P) enrichment experiments at two sites within the Öre estuary, northern Sweden. The BR was stimulated by single C additions and further enhanced by combined additions of C and other nutrients. Single addition of N or P had no effect on BR rates. In contrast, BP was primarily limited by P at the site close to the river mouth and did not respond to C or N additions. However, at the site further away from the near the river mouth, BP was slightly stimulated by single additions of C. Possibly, the natural inflow of riverine bioavailable dissolved organic carbon induced local P limitation of BP near the river mouth, which was then exhausted and resulted in C-limited BP further away from the river mouth. We observed positive interactions between all elements on all responses except for BP at the site close to the river mouth, where P showed an independent effect. In light of predicted increases in terrestrial P and C deliveries, we expect future increases in BP and increases of BR of terrestrially delivered C substrates at the Öre estuary and similar areas.

Parallel assessment of marine autotrophic picoplankton using flow cytometry and chemotaxonomy

Autotrophic picoplankton (0.2-2μm) can be a significant contributor to primary production and hence play an important role in carbon flow. The phytoplankton community structure in the Baltic Sea is very region specific and the understanding of the composition and dynamics of pico-size phytoplankton is generally poor. The main objective of this study was to determine the contribution of picoeukaryotic algae and their taxonomic composition in late summer phytoplankton community of the West-Estonian Archipelago Sea. We found that about 20% of total chlorophyll a (Chl a) in this area belongs to autotrophic picoplankton. With increasing total Chl a, the Chl a of autotrophic picoplankton increased while its contribution in total Chl a decreased. Picoeukaryotes play an important role in the coastal area of the Baltic Sea where they constituted around 50% of the total autotrophic picoplankton biomass. The most abundant groups of picoeukaryotic algae were cryptophytes (16%), chlorophytes (13%) and diatoms (9%). Picocyanobacteria were clearly dominated by phycoerythrin containing Synechococcus. The parallel use of different assessment methods (CHEMTAX and flow cytometry) revealed the share of eukaryotic and prokaryotic part of autotrophic picoplankton.