Transitions in high-Arctic vegetation growth patterns and ecosystem productivity tracked with automated cameras from 2000 to 2013

No effect of snow on shrub xylem traits: Insights from a snow-manipulation experiment on Disko Island, Greenland

Widespread shrubification across the Arctic has been generally attributed to increasing air temperatures, but responses vary across species and sites. Wood structures related to the plant hydraulic architecture may respond to local environmental conditions and potentially impact shrub growth, but these relationships remain understudied. Using methods of dendroanatomy, we analysed shrub ring width (RW) and xylem anatomical traits of 80 individuals of Salix glauca L. and Betula nana L. at a snow manipulation experiment in Western Greenland. We assessed how their responses differed between treatments (increased versus ambient snow depth) and soil moisture regimes (wet and dry). Despite an increase in snow depth due to snow fences (28-39 %), neither RW nor anatomical traits in either species showed significant responses to this increase. In contrast, irrespective of the snow treatment, the xylem specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and earlywood vessel size (LA95) for the study period were larger in S. glauca (p < 0.1, p < 0.01) and B. nana (p < 0.01, p < 0.001) at the wet than the dry site, while both species had larger vessel groups at the dry than the wet site (p < 0.01). RW of B. nana was higher at the wet site (p < 0.01), but no differences were observed for S. glauca. Additionally, B. nana Ks and LA95 showed different trends over the study period, with decreases observed at the dry site (p < 0.001), while for other responses no difference was observed. Our results indicate that, taking into account ontogenetic and allometric trends, hydraulic related xylem traits of both species, along with B. nana growth, were influenced by soil moisture. These findings suggest that soil moisture regime, but not snow cover, may determine xylem responses to future climate change and thus add to the heterogeneity of Arctic shrub dynamics, though more long-term species- and site- specific studies are needed.

The future of tundra carbon storage in Greenland - Sensitivity to climate and plant trait changes

The continuous change in observed key indicators such as increasing nitrogen deposition, temperatures and precipitation will have marked but uncertain consequences for the ecosystem carbon (C) sink-source functioning of the Arctic. Here, we use multiple in-situ data streams measured by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme in tight connection with the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model and climate projections from the high-resolution HIRHAM5 regional model. We apply this modelling framework with focus on two climatically different tundra sites in Greenland (Zackenberg and Kobbefjord) to assess how sensitive the net C uptake will expectedly be under warmer and wetter conditions across the 21st century and pin down the relative contribution to the overall C sink strength from climate versus plant trait variability. Our results suggest that temperatures (5-7.7 °C), total precipitation (19-110 %) and vapour pressure deficit will increase (32-36 %), while shortwave radiation will decline (6-9 %) at both sites by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Such a combined effect will, on average, intensify the net C uptake by 9-10 g C m^-2 year^-1 at both sites towards the end of 2100, but Zackenberg is expected to have more than twice the C sink strength capacity of Kobbefjord. Our sensitivity analysis not only reveals that plant traits are the most sensitive parameters controlling the net C exchange in both sites at the beginning and end of the century, but also that the projected increase in the net C uptake will likely be similarly influenced by future changes in climate and existing local nutrient conditions. A series of experiments forcing realistic changes in plant nitrogen status at both sites corroborates this hypothesis. This work proves the unique synergy between monitoring data and numerical models to assist robust model calibration/validation and narrow uncertainty ranges and ultimately produce more reliable C cycle projections in understudied regions such as Greenland.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm^-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Seasonal climate drivers of peak NDVI in a series of Arctic peatlands

Changes in plant cover and productivity are important in driving Arctic soil carbon dynamics and sequestration, especially in peatlands. Warming trends in the Arctic are known to have resulted in changes in plant productivity, extent and community composition, but more data are still needed to improve understanding of the complex controls and processes involved. Here we assess plant productivity response to climate variability between 1985 and 2020 by comparing peak growing season NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data from Landsat 5 and 7), to seasonal-average weather data (temperature, precipitation and snow-melt timing) in nine locations containing peatlands in high- and low-Arctic regions in Europe and Canada. We find that spring (correlation 0.36 for peat dominant and 0.39 for mosaic; MLR coefficient 0.20 for peat, 0.29 for mosaic), summer (0.47, 0.42; 0.18, 0.17) and preceding-autumn (0.35, 0.25; 0.33, 0.27) temperature are linked to peak growing season NDVI at our sites between 1985 and 2020, whilst spring snow melt timing (0.42, 0.45; 0.25, 0.32) is also important, and growing season water availability is likely site-specific. According to regression trees, a warm preceding autumn (September-October-November) is more important than a warm summer (June-July-August) in predicting the highest peak season productivity in the peat-dominated areas. Mechanisms linked to soil processes may explain the importance of previous-Autumn conditions on productivity. We further find that peak productivity increases in these Arctic peatlands are comparable to those in the surrounding non-peatland-dominant vegetation. Increased productivity in and around Arctic peatlands suggests a potential to increased soil carbon sequestration with future warming, but further work is needed to test whether this is evident in observations of recent peat accumulation and extent.

Summer temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth of Salix arctica in coastal Arctic tundra

Arctic climate change is leading to an advance of plant phenology (the timing of life history events) with uncertain impacts on tundra ecosystems. Although the lengthening of the growing season is thought to lead to increased plant growth, we have few studies of how plant phenology change is altering tundra plant productivity. Here, we test the correspondence between 14 years of Salix arctica phenology data and radial growth on Qikiqtaruk–Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. We analysed stems from 28 individuals using dendroecology and linear mixed-effect models to test the statistical power of growing season length and climate variables to individually predict radial growth. We found that summer temperature best explained annual variation in radial growth. We found no strong evidence that leaf emergence date, earlier leaf senescence date, or total growing season length had any direct or lagged effects on radial growth. Radial growth was also not explained by interannual variation in precipitation, MODIS surface greenness (NDVI), or sea ice concentration. Our results demonstrate that at this site, for the widely distributed species S. arctica, temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth. These findings challenge the assumption that advancing phenology and longer growing seasons will increase the productivity of all plant species in Arctic tundra ecosystems.

Climate-related drivers of nutrient inputs and food web structure in shallow Arctic lake ecosystems

In order to predict the effects of climate change on polar ecosystems, disentangling mechanisms of nutrient transfer in food webs is crucial. We investigated sources of nutrients in tundra lakes, tracing their transfer through the food web and relating the observed patterns to runoff, snow coverage, and the presence of migratory geese in lake catchments. C and N content (elemental and isotopic) of several food web components including Lepidurus arcticus (Notostraca, at the top of the lake food webs) in 18 shallow Arctic lakes was compared. Terrestrial productivity and geese abundance were key biotic factors that interacted with abiotic variables (snow coverage, lake and catchment size) in determining the amount and origin of nutrient inputs, affecting the trophic interactions among aquatic species, food chain length and nutrient flow in Arctic lake food webs. Decreasing snow coverage, increasing abundance and expansion of the geese's range are expected across the Arctic due to climate warming. By relating nutrient inputs and food web structure to snow coverage, vegetation and geese, this study contributes to our mechanistic understanding of the cascade effects of climate change in tundra ecosystems, and may help predict the response of lakes to changes in nutrient inputs at lower latitudes.

The Change in Environmental Variables Linked to Climate Change Has a Stronger Effect on Aboveground Net Primary Productivity Than Does Phenological Change in Alpine Grasslands

More and more studies have focused on responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change and phenological change, and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) is a primary component of global carbon cycling. However, it remains unclear whether the climate change or the phenological change has stronger effects on ANPP. In this study, we compared the effects of phenological change and climate change on ANPP during 2000-2013 across 36 alpine grassland sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicated that ANPP showed a positive relationship with plant phenology such as prolonged length of growing season and advanced start of growing season, and environmental variables such as growing season precipitation (GSP), actual vapor pressure (E_a), relative humidity (RH), and the ratio of GSP to ≥5°C accumulated temperature (GSP/AccT), respectively. The linear change trend of ANPP increased with that of GSP, E_a, RH, and GSP/AccT rather than phenology variables. Interestingly, GSP had the closer correlation with ANPP and meanwhile the linear slope of GSP had the closer correlation with that of ANPP among all the concerned variables. Therefore, climate change, mainly attributed to precipitation change, had a stronger effect on ANPP than did phenological change in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau.

Snow mediates climatic impacts on Arctic herbivore populations

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change; however, the complex relationships between climate and ecosystems make incorporating effects of climate change into population management difficult. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and a 24-year multifaceted monitoring data series collected at Zackenberg, North-East Greenland, to untangle the network of climatic and local abiotic and biotic drivers, determining their direct and indirect effects on two herbivores: musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Snow conditions were determined to be the central driver within the system, mediating the effects of climate on herbivore abundance. Under current climate change projections, snow is expected to decrease in the region. Snow had an indirect negative effect on musk ox, as decreased snow depth led to an earlier start to the Arctic willow growing season, shown to increase fecundity and decrease mortality. Musk ox are therefore expected to be more successful under future conditions, within a certain threshold. Snow had both positive and negative effects on lemming, with lemming expected to ultimately be less successful under climate change, as reduction in snow increases their vulnerability to predation. Through their capacity to determine effects of climatic and local drivers within a hierarchy, and the relative strength and direction of these effects, SEMs were demonstrated to have the potential to be valuable in guiding population management.

Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities

Tundra dominates two-thirds of the unglaciated, terrestrial Arctic. Although this region has experienced rapid and widespread changes in vegetation phenology and productivity over the last several decades, the specific climatic drivers responsible for this change remain poorly understood. Here we quantified the effect of winter snowpack and early spring temperature conditions on growing season vegetation phenology (timing of the start, peak, and end of the growing season) and productivity of the dominant tundra vegetation communities of Arctic Alaska. We used daily remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and daily snowpack and temperature variables produced by SnowModel and MicroMet, coupled physically based snow and meteorological modeling tools, to (1) determine the most important snowpack and thermal controls on tundra vegetation phenology and productivity and (2) describe the direction of these relationships within each vegetation community. Our results show that soil temperature under the snowpack, snowmelt timing, and air temperature following snowmelt are the most important drivers of growing season timing and productivity among Arctic vegetation communities. Air temperature after snowmelt was the most important control on timing of season start and end, with warmer conditions contributing to earlier phenology in all vegetation communities. In contrast, the controls on the timing of peak season and productivity also included snowmelt timing and soil temperature under the snowpack, dictated in part by the snow insulating capacity. The results of this novel analysis suggest that while future warming effects on phenology may be consistent across communities of the tundra biome, warming may result in divergent, community-specific productivity responses if coupled with reduced snow insulating capacity lowers winter soil temperature and potential nutrient cycling in the soil.

Later springs green-up faster: the relation between onset and completion of green-up in deciduous forests of North America

In deciduous forests, spring leaf phenology controls the onset of numerous ecosystem functions. While most studies have focused on a single annual spring event, such as budburst, ecosystem functions like photosynthesis and transpiration increase gradually after budburst, as leaves grow to their mature size. Here, we examine the "velocity of green-up," or duration between budburst and leaf maturity, in deciduous forest ecosystems of eastern North America. We use a diverse data set that includes 301 site-years of phenocam data across a range of sites, as well as 22 years of direct ground observations of individual trees and 3 years of fine-scale high-frequency aerial photography, both from Harvard Forest. We find a significant association between later start of spring and faster green-up: - 0.47 ± 0.04 (slope ± 1 SE) days change in length of green-up for every day later start of spring within phenocam sites, - 0.31 ± 0.06 days/day for trees under direct observation, and - 1.61 ± 0.08 days/day spatially across fine-scale landscape units. To explore the climatic drivers of spring leaf development, we fit degree-day models to the observational data from Harvard Forest. We find that the default phenology parameters of the ecosystem model PnET make biased predictions of leaf initiation (39 days early) and maturity (13 days late) for red oak, while the optimized model has biases of 1 day or less. Springtime productivity predictions using optimized parameters are closer to results driven by observational data (within 1%) than those of the default parameterization (17% difference). Our study advances empirical understanding of the link between early and late spring phenophases and demonstrates that accurately modeling these transitions is important for simulating seasonal variation in ecosystem productivity.

Contrasting above- and belowground organic matter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen dynamics in response to warming in High Arctic tundra

Tundra regions are projected to warm rapidly during the coming decades. The tundra biome holds the largest terrestrial carbon pool, largely contained in frozen permafrost soils. With warming, these permafrost soils may thaw and become available for microbial decomposition, potentially providing a positive feedback to global warming. Warming may directly stimulate microbial metabolism but may also indirectly stimulate organic matter turnover through increased plant productivity by soil priming from root exudates and accelerated litter turnover rates. Here, we assess the impacts of experimental warming on turnover rates of leaf litter, active layer soil and thawed permafrost sediment in two high-arctic tundra heath sites in NE-Greenland, either dominated by evergreen or deciduous shrubs. We incubated shrub leaf litter on the surface of control and warmed plots for 1 and 2 years. Active layer soil was collected from the plots to assess the effects of 8 years of field warming on soil carbon stocks. Finally, we incubated open cores filled with newly thawed permafrost soil for 2 years in the active layer of the same plots. After field incubation, we measured basal respiration rates of recovered thawed permafrost cores in the lab. Warming significantly reduced litter mass loss by 26% after 1 year incubation, but differences in litter mass loss among treatments disappeared after 2 years incubation. Warming also reduced litter nitrogen mineralization and decreased the litter carbon to nitrogen ratio. Active layer soil carbon stocks were reduced 15% by warming, while soil dissolved nitrogen was reduced by half in warmed plots. Warming had a positive legacy effect on carbon turnover rates in thawed permafrost cores, with 10% higher respiration rates measured in cores from warmed plots. These results demonstrate that warming may have contrasting effects on above- and belowground tundra carbon turnover, possibly governed by microbial resource availability.

Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic "mismatches" between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970-2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011-13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7-12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15-21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011-13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

Towards quantifying the glacial runoff signal in the freshwater input to Tyrolerfjord-Young Sound, NE Greenland

Terrestrial freshwater runoff strongly influences physical and biogeochemical processes at the fjord scale and can have global impacts when considered at the Greenland scale. We investigate the performance of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model over the catchments delivering freshwater to Tyrolerfjord and Young Sound by comparing to the unique Greenland Ecological Monitoring database of in situ observations from this region. Based on these findings, we estimate and discuss the fraction of runoff originating from glacierized and non-glacierized land delivered at the daily scale between 1996 and 2008. We find that glaciers contributed on average 50-80% of annual terrestrial runoff when considering different sections of Tyrolerfjord-Young Sound, but snowpack depletion on land and consequently runoff happens about one month earlier in the model than observed in the field. The temporal shift in the model is a likely explanation why summer surface salinity in the inner fjord did not correlate to modelled runoff.