Young women's dynamic family size preferences in the context of transitioning fertility

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20-39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

The Impact of Childhood Mortality on Fertility in Rural Tanzania: Evidence From the Ifakara and Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

This manuscript examines the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring among 15,291 Tanzanian mothers between 2000 and 2015. Generalized hazard regression analyses assess the effect of child loss on the hazard of conception, adjusting for child-level, mother-level, and contextual covariates. Results show that time to conception is most reduced if an index child dies during the subsequent birth interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. Deaths occurring during prior birth intervals were associated with accelerated time to conception during future intervals, consistent with hypothesized insurance effects of anticipating future child loss, but this effect is smaller than replacement effects. The analysis reveals that residence in areas of relatively high child mortality is associated with hastened parity progression, again consistent with the insurance hypothesis. Investigation of high-order interactions suggests that insurance effects tend to be greater in low-mortality communities, replacement effects tend to be stronger in high-mortality community contexts, and wealthier families tend to exhibit a weaker insurance response but a stronger replacement response to childhood mortality relative to poorer families.

Investigating the relationship between growing season quality and childbearing goals

Agricultural production and household food security are hypothesized to play a critical role connecting climate change to downstream effects on women's health, especially in communities dependent on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal variability in agriculture strains food and income resources and makes it a challenging time for households to manage a pregnancy or afford a new child. Yet, there are few direct assessments of the role locally varying agricultural quality plays on women's health, especially reproductive health. In this paper we build on and integrate ideas from past studies focused on climate change and growing season quality in low-income countries with those on reproductive health to examine how variation in local seasonal agricultural quality relates to childbearing goals and family planning use in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Uganda. We use rich, spatially referenced data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) individual surveys with detailed information on childbearing preferences and family planning decisions. Building on recent advances in remote monitoring of seasonal agriculture, we construct multiple vegetation measures capturing different dimensions of growing season conditions across varying time frames. Results for the Kenya sample indicate that if the recent growing season is better a woman is more likely to want a child in the future. In Uganda, when the growing season conditions are better, women prefer to shorten the time until their next birth and are also more likely to discontinue using family planning. Additional analyses reveal the importance of education and birth spacing in moderating these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that, in some settings, women strategically respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility aspirations or family planning use. This study also highlights the importance of operationalizing agriculture in nuanced ways that align with women's lives to better understand how women are impacted by and respond to seasonal climate conditions.

Linkages between men's wealth status and the ideal number of children: A trend and multilevel analysis of survey data in Nigeria

Most African societies practice a patriarchal family system that endows a man with authority and dominance in the family and society with a defined role of being the breadwinner of the home. A man is expected to have a great influence in determining the ideal number of children in the family and take a domineering role in decision-making, especially those related to household resource allocation. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between men's wealth status and an ideal number of children. The study used secondary data from the National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) from 2003 to 2018. The objectives were achieved using descriptive and inferential statistics, including frequency, mean, ANOVA, and multilevel analysis techniques. Wealth status significantly influenced the ideal number of children considering the crude and adjusted regression analysis. After adjusting for individual-level and contextual factors, the odd ratio of ideal number of children was significantly lower among men in the richest categories of the wealth index. Moreover, men with two wives and above, uneducated men, Northern residents, men living in high community family norms, low community family planning, high community poverty, and low community level of education desired a high number of children. The analyses suggest the need for a consideration of community structures to provide lucrative employment for men and would experience an appreciable fertility decline in line with the objectives and targets stated in Nigeria's population policies and programmes.

Scars from a Previous Epidemic: Social Proximity to Zika and Fertility Intentions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

We examine whether women's social proximity to Zika during the Zika epidemic predicts intentions to avoid a pregnancy because of the COVID-19 pandemic either directly or indirectly via subjective assessments of the pandemic. We apply path models on unique microdata from Brazil, the country most affected by Zika and an epicenter of COVID-19, to understand whether a novel infectious disease outbreak left lasting imprints shaping fertility intentions during a subsequent novel infectious disease outbreak. Findings show that Zika social proximity is associated with fertility intentions through an indirect path related to subjective assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings emerged regardless of whether a woman herself had or suspected she had Zika and speak to the transformative consequences of novel infectious disease outbreaks that go beyond mortality and health.

Principal Factors Affecting Couples' Childbearing Policies: A Roadmap for Policymaking

BACKGROUND

The concept of negative population growth, population aging, and the need to implement child-encouraging policies is an important concern in many countries. As this issue is completely cultural and country-based, this study is designed to assess and prioritize the perception of newly married couples to the policies that may have a crucial role in the childbearing intention around the world.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Through a descriptive cross-sectional study, 300 couples were selected by a simple random sampling method. Multilevel binary logistic regression was used for investigating the relationships among dimensions of family policies, socio-demographic variables, and childbearing intention.

RESULTS

Childbearing perception positively correlated with education and permanent job in both genders, maternal age range of 25-35, the higher length of marriage, having more children, and living in a government settlement. The most important family policies that couples preferred were contextual requirements (mean rank of 4.50%). Positive childbearing perception negatively correlated with higher age categories in women, the number of children, rental housing status, no insurance access, higher educational attainment, and low employment ranks in both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

This study cleared that family policies affect the childbearing intention of young couples. Polices involved contextual requirements, supporting couples to integrate work and home, health promotion plans, child-centered social support, and promoting the level of social and cultural relations.

Social consequences of COVID-19 on fertility preference consistency and contraceptive use among Nigerian women: insights from population-based data

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence from high income countries showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has had negative effects on population and reproductive health behaviour. This study provides a sub-Saharan Africa perspective by documenting the social consequences of COVID-19 and its relationship to fertility preference stability and modern contraceptive use in Nigeria.

METHOD

We analysed panel data collected by Performance Monitoring for Action in Nigeria. Baseline and Follow-up surveys were conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak (November 2019-February 2020) and during the lockdown respectively (May-July 2020). Analysis was restricted to married non-pregnant women during follow-up (n = 774). Descriptive statistics and generalized linear models were employed to explore the relationship between selected social consequences of COVID-19 and fertility preferences stability (between baseline and follow-up) as well as modern contraceptives use.

RESULTS

Reported social consequences of the pandemic lockdown include total loss of household income (31.3%), food insecurity (16.5%), and greater economic reliance on partner (43.0%). Sixty-eight women (8.8%) changed their minds about pregnancy and this was associated with age groups, higher wealth quintile (AOR = 0.38, CI: 0.15-0.97) and household food insecurity (AOR = 2.72, CI: 1.23-5.99). Fertility preference was inconsistent among 26.1%. Women aged 30-34 years (AOR = 4.46, CI:1.29-15.39) were more likely of inconsistent fertility preference compared to 15-24 years. The likelihood was also higher among women with three children compared to those with only one child (AOR = 3.88, CI: 1.36-11.08). During follow-up survey, 59.4% reported they would feel unhappy if pregnant. This was more common among women with tertiary education (AOR = 2.99, CI: 1.41-6.33). The odds increased with parity. The prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 32.8%. Women aged 45-49 years (AOR = 0.24, CI: 0.10-0.56) were less likely to use modern contraceptives than those aged 15-24 years. In contrast, the odds of contraceptive use were significantly higher among those with three (AOR = 1.82, CI: 1.03-3.20), four (AOR = 2.45, CI: 1.36-4.39) and at least five (AOR = 2.89, CI: 1.25-6.74) children. Unhappy disposition towards pregnancy (AOR = 2.48, CI: 1.724-3.58) was also a significant predictor of modern contraceptive use.

CONCLUSION

Some social consequences of COVID-19 affected pregnancy intention and stability of fertility preference but showed no independent association with modern contraceptive use.

Embodiment, agency, unmet need: Young women's experiences in the use and non-use of contraception in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Globally, high rates of unintended pregnancy occur despite widespread distribution of modern contraceptive methods, reflecting the complexity of individual contraceptive use. The concept of unmet need provides a framework for addressing the gap between women's desire to prevent pregnancy and the ability of health services to meet women's contraceptive needs. Through in-depth interviews in Khayelitsha, South Africa, we examine 14 young women's experiences with contraception, interrogating how and why reproductive intentions and outcomes often differ markedly. Three main themes were identified and explored. First, unintended pregnancies were common in our sample, despite high knowledge about contraceptive options and availability of multiple methods. Second, women's contraceptive preferences are strongly shaped by concerns with side effects and other embodied experiences, leading to pivotal moments of method-switching or cessation of contraceptive use. Third, using contraception provides participants with the potential for purposeful and self-directed action. These enactments of agency though, occur within intimate and familial relationships, where gendered expectations of the participants' choices ultimately shape both method preference and use. These findings demonstrate the need for an understanding of women's lives and narratives as the basis for understanding complex health behaviours such as contraceptive use.

Desired Fertility and Educational Aspirations: Adolescent Goals in Rapidly Changing Social Contexts

Objective

This article analyzes the relationship between educational aspirations and fertility aspirations early in the life course in three different settings.

Background

The negative relationship between women's educational attainment and childbearing is one of the most consistent associations in social science. Family scholars have a more limited understanding of the relationship between educational aspirations and fertility aspirations before childbearing or union formation.

Method

The authors use data collected in Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal as part of the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes project. They estimate nested Poisson regressions to model the relationship between adolescent educational aspirations and desired family size, controlling for individual- and household-level sociodemographic variables as well as adolescent beliefs and values.

Results

On average, adolescents who desire more education want fewer children in unadjusted models. In Mozambique and Nepal, this association is attenuated in models accounting for household characteristics. In Mexico, the association persists after incorporating these factors, but the inclusion of individual aspirations attenuates the relationship between educational aspirations and desired family size. In Mozambique, the association of educational aspirations with desired family size is moderated by gender.

Conclusion

As young people enter adolescence, their desires for education and childbearing are inversely related, but the mechanisms driving this association vary across contexts. This variation may be related to linkages between education, social status, and family values.

Which factors predict fertility intentions of married men and women? Results from the 2012 Niger Demographic and Health Survey

INTRODUCTION

Niger is the country with the highest total fertility rate in the world. In the present study, we investigated factors associated with the desire for more children among married men and women in Niger.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We utilised data from the 2012 Niger Demographic and Health Survey. The outcome variable for the study was fertility intentions. The data were analysed with Stata version 14.0. Both descriptive (frequencies and percentages) and inferential (binary logistic regression) analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

Desire for more children was 97.2% and 87.2% among men and women respectively. Women aged 45-49 were less likely to desire more children, compared to those aged 25-39 [aOR = 0.13, CI = 0.11-0.16]. The odds of desire for more children were high in rural areas, compared to urban areas [aOR = 1.61, CI = 1.20-2.17]. Childbearing women with seven or more births were less likely to desire more children, compared to those with 1-3 births [aOR = 0.09, CI = 0.06-0.14]. Men aged 50-59 were less likely to desire more children, compared to those aged 25-39 [aOR = 0.13, CI = 0.05-0.35]. Men with secondary/higher level of education were less likely to desire more children, compared to those with no formal education [aOR = 0.24, CI = 0.11-0.52]. Childbearing men with seven or more births were less likely to desire more children, compared to those with 1-3 births [aOR = 0.06, CI = 0.01-0.30].

CONCLUSION

This study shows high fertility desire among men and women in Niger. However, the prevalence of fertility desire among men is higher than that of women. A number of socio-economic and demographic factors were found to be associated with desire for more children among men and women in Niger. This calls for a collective effort to educate women and men in Niger on the negative consequences of rapid population growth and large family sizes.

How Nearby Homicides Affect Young Women's Pregnancy Desires: Evidence From a Quasi-Experiment

Leveraging spatiotemporal variation in homicides that occurred during a 2.5-year weekly panel survey of 387 women ages 18-22 in Flint, Michigan, we investigate how young women's desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy evolve in response to local homicides during the transition to adulthood. To address the endogeneity of exposure, we explore how the same woman's pregnancy desires (1) differed, on average, across weeks before and after the first homicide occurred within a quarter mile of her home; (2) evolved in the aftermath of this initial homicide exposure; and (3) changed in response to additional nearby homicides. One-fifth (22%) of women were exposed to a nearby homicide at least once during the study, and one-third of these women were exposed multiple times. Overall, the effects of nearby homicides were gradual: although average desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy differed after initial exposure, these differences emerged approximately three to five months post-exposure. Repeated exposure to nearby homicides had nonlinear effects on how much women wanted to become pregnant and how much they wanted to avoid pregnancy. Together, our analyses provide a new explanation for why some young women-especially those who are socially disadvantaged-desire pregnancy at an early age.

Infertility, Perceived Certainty of Pregnancy, and Contraceptive Use in Malawi

Infertility and unintended pregnancy are dual burdens in Malawi, where 41% of pregnancies are unintended and approximately 20% of people report infertility. Although preventing unintended pregnancy has been a focus in public health, infertility has rarely been explored as a factor that may be associated with contraceptive use. Using cross-sectional survey data (2017-2018; N = 749), we report on the prevalence of and sociodemographic characteristics associated with infertility and certainty of becoming pregnant among women in Malawi. We conducted multivariable logistic regressions examining the relationship between infertility, certainty of becoming pregnant, and contraceptive use. Approximately 16% of women experienced infertility, and three-quarters (78%) were certain they could become pregnant within one year. Women who experienced infertility had lower odds of contraceptive use than women who did not (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 0.56; 95% Conficence Interval [CI]: 0.39-0.83). Women who said there was "no chance" or they were "unlikely" to become pregnant also had lower odds of contraceptive use compared to women who were certain they would become pregnant (AOR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.10-0.92). Our findings indicate that experiences and perceptions surrounding fertility are associated with contraceptive use, underscoring their importance in understanding how people manage their fertility to reach their reproductive goals.

A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda

Although many studies have examined the influence of women's fertility preferences on subsequent fertility behavior and the role of contraceptive use intentions on unmet need, very few have explored their concurrent effects on contraceptive use dynamics. This study examines the independent concurrent effects of women's fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on subsequent adoption and discontinuation, treating pregnancy as a competing risk factor that may alter contraceptive need. The data are derived from a 2018 follow-up survey of a 2014 national sample of 3,800 Ugandan female respondents of childbearing age. The survey included a contraceptive calendar that recorded pregnancy, birth, and contraceptive event episodes, including reasons for discontinuation. We use competing risk regression to estimate the effect of fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on the cumulative incidence function of contraceptive behaviors, accounting for intervening pregnancy, female background covariates, loss to follow-up, and complex survey design. We find that women's contraceptive intentions significantly increase the rate of contraceptive adoption. After having adopted, women's contraceptive intentions have been realized and do not prolong use. The risk of discontinuation among women who adopted after baseline was significantly higher than for those using at baseline, irrespective of their initial intentions. The effectiveness of the type of contraceptive method chosen significantly lowered discontinuation risk. Fertility preferences were not significantly associated with either time to adoption or discontinuation. The pace of the fertility transition in this sub-Saharan African setting is likely being shaped by reproductive regulation through the intentional use of contraception that enables spacing births.

Trajectories of fertility intentions among women living with HIV in South Africa

Fertility intentions are thought to be dynamic among women of reproductive age, yet few studies have assessed fertility intentions over time among women with HIV. We examine temporal patterns of fertility intentions in women with HIV to assess the extent to which fertility intentions - and the corresponding need for safer conception and judicious antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen selection - vary over time. 850 non-pregnant HIV-positive women aged 18-35 on or being initiated onto ART in Johannesburg, South Africa were enrolled into a prospective cohort study (2009-2010). Fertility intentions were assessed at enrollment and at 30-day intervals via an interviewer-administered questionnaire. We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify longitudinal patterns of fertility intentions over 12 months. We identified four patterns of fertility intentions, which we labelled "consistently low" (representing ∼60% of the population), "low and increasing" (∼23%), "high and increasing" (∼12%), and "high and decreasing" (∼5%). Our findings suggest that a single family-planning assessment at one time point is insufficient to fully identify and meet the reproductive needs of women with HIV. As HIV testing and treatment evolve in South Africa, routine screening for fertility intentions can offer important opportunities to optimize HIV treatment, prevention, and maternal and child health.

Adverse Childhood Experiences on Reproductive Plans and Adolescent Pregnancy in the Gulf Resilience on Women's Health Cohort

We investigated if adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and ACE sub-types were associated with increased odds of planning to have children and adolescent pregnancy. The Gulf Resilience on Women’s Health (GROWH) is a diverse cohort of reproductive-age women living in southeastern Louisiana during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In our sample of 1482 women, we used multinomial logistic regression to model odds ratios of wanting future children and assessed effect measure modification by educational attainment. We also estimated odds ratios of adolescent pregnancy with binomial logistic regression. Exposure to ACEs increased odds of wanting future children across all ACE sub-types. Among women with lower educational attainment, three or more ACEs (overall, childhood, and adolescence) had over two times the odds of wanting future children. History of ACE and the various sub-types, except for emotional abuse, were associated with increased risk of adolescent pregnancy. ACEs may be linked to adolescent pregnancy and reproductive plans, and variations by educational status highlighted social discrepancies and importance of social context in evaluation and intervention.

The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one's fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential-if sometimes blunt-tool in the demographers' toolkit.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Investigating the Relationship between Food Insecurity and Fertility Preferences in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

We analyze fertility preferences among women at risk of pregnancy with children ages five or younger as a function of two food security metrics: perceptions of household hunger and child stunting (height for age z scores ≤ -2.0) in order to convey a robust picture of food insecurity.

METHODS

We use data from the 2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys to analyze this research question. Multinomial generalized logit models with cluster-adjusted standard errors are used to determine the association between different dimensions of food insecurity and individual-level fertility preferences.

RESULTS

On average, women who experience household hunger are 19% less likely to want more children compared to women who do not experience household hunger (AOR: 0.81, p = 0.02) when controlling for education, residence, maternal age, number of living children, and survey month. Adjusting for the same covariates, having at least one child ≤ 5 years old who is stunted is associated with 13% reduced odds of wanting more children compared to having no children stunted (AOR: 0.87, p = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE

In the context of a divided literature base, this research aligns with the previous work identifying a preference among women to delay or avoid pregnancy during times of food insecurity. The similarity in magnitude and direction of the association between food insecurity and fertility preferences across the two measures of food insecurity suggest a potential association between lived or perceived resource insecurity and fertility aspirations. Further research is needed in order to establish a mechanism through which food insecurity affects fertility preferences.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Individual fertility preferences are sensitive to dynamic multi-level factors in a woman's life. While qualitative research has explored the effect that food insecurity and associated resource constraints have on fertility preferences, results are conflicting. Here, we quantitatively examine how individual woman's fertility preferences associate with two measures of food insecurity and qualitatively compare the associations across food insecurity measures. We establish that two food insecurity measures- household hunger and child stunting- capture similar populations and have similar associations with fertility preferences. This is a critical step forward in understanding the dynamic relationship between resource availability, child well-being, and fertility preferences.

Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing

This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outside sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition was dominated by parity-specific family size limitation. As the transition progressed, women also began to postpone their next birth for lengthy periods in many countries. During the first half of the fertility transition in much of sub-Saharan Africa and in some other countries, however, women stopped childbearing without targeting particular family sizes. Moreover, birth intervals in sub-Saharan Africa have been lengthening since the onset of the transition. Birth control is not restricted to a dichotomy between limitation and spacing. Other reasons for curtailing childbearing and postponing having another birth also shape countries’ pathways through fertility transition.

Changing Childbearing Norms During an Era of ART Expansion in Malawi, 2009 to 2015

Community norms shape the childbearing goals and behaviors of persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) but little is known about how norms around HIV-positive childbearing have changed with expanded access to antiretroviral treatment (ART). We analyze data collected in 2009 and 2015 by the Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) project-a longitudinal, population-based study of young adults in southern Malawi. Respondents were asked about the acceptability of childbearing using vignettes that varied a hypothetical couple's HIV status and number of children. We assess mean differences in support for childbearing over time and by respondent gender and serostatus. The acceptability of childbearing for PLWHA increased dramatically over the 6-year period; however, support levels varied based on a couple's current number of children and whether they were seropositive concordant or discordant. Differences in attitudes by gender and HIV status diminished over time, pointing to a population-level convergence in norms about acceptable childbearing.

Fertility intentions and maternal health behaviour during and after pregnancy

This study examines associations between fertility intentions and maternal health behaviours during and after pregnancy among a nationally representative sample of 3,442 women from India. Two waves of data (2005, 2012) from the India Human Development Survey were analyzed to investigate the influence of unwanted births on women's use of antenatal care, timely postnatal care, and the delivery setting using binary and ordered logistic regression, partial proportional odds models, and propensity score weighting. Fifty-eight per cent of sample births were unwanted. Regression results show that, net of maternal and household characteristics, women with unwanted births were less likely to obtain any antenatal care and had fewer antenatal tests performed. Unwantedness was also associated with a lower likelihood of delivering in an institutional setting and of obtaining timely postnatal care. The relationships between unwantedness and antenatal care, postnatal care, and delivery setting were robust to models accounting for propensity weighting.

Data Collection as Disruption: Insights from a Longitudinal Study of Young Adulthood

Research disrupts the social world, often by making respondents aware that they are being observed or by instigating reflection upon particular aspects of life via the very act of asking questions. Building on insights from the first Hawthorne studies, reflexive ethnographers, and methodologists concerned with panel conditioning, we draw on six years of research within a community in southern Malawi to introduce a conceptual framework for theorizing disruption in observational research. We present a series of poignant-yet-typical tales from the field and two additional tools-the refresher-sample-as-comparison and study-focused ethnography-for measuring disruption empirically in a longitudinal study. We find evidence of study effects in many domains of life that relate directly to our scope of inquiry (i.e., union formation, fertility) and in some that extend beyond it (i.e., health). Moreover, some study effects were already known and discussed in the broader community, which was also affected by our research in unintended ways. We conclude that the assumption of non-interactivity in observational research is shaky at best, urging data-gatherers and users to think more seriously about the role of disruption in their work.

Planning a family in Nairobi's informal settlements: results of a qualitative study

Childbearing intentions among women in high-fertility contexts are usually classified into those wanting to have a baby, those wanting to 'space' a birth and those wanting to 'limit' their family size. However, evidence from Africa increasingly suggests that women's intentions are more complex than this classification suggests, and that there is fluidity in these intentions. This research explores women's accounts of their childbearing intentions and decisions in order to examine how this fluidity plays out in a low-fertility context in urban Africa. Six focus group discussions were conducted in April and May 2012 with women of reproductive age in Nairobi, Kenya. Participants were recruited using random and purposive sampling techniques. The focus group discussions had an average of seven participants each. Data were coded thematically and analysed using Nvivo software. The analysis explored the factors that women consider to be influential for childbearing and found that the health of the mother and child, costs of raising a child and relationships were commonly reported to be important. Evidence of intentions to space births and limit family size was found. However, the data also showed that there is fluidity in women's family planning intentions, driven by changes in relationships or household finances, which often result in a desire to avoid pregnancy in the present moment. The fluidity observed in women's childbearing intentions cannot be accounted for by the concepts of either 'spacing' or 'limitation' but is best explained by the concept of 'postponement'. The research reveals the need for family planning clinics to provide a full method mix, as well as high-quality counselling, to enable women to choose a method that best suits their needs.

Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting

A growing body of research has argued that the traditional categories of stopping and spacing are insufficient to understand why individuals want to control fertility. In a series of articles, Timæus, Moultrie, and colleagues defined a third type of fertility motivation-postponement-that reflects a desire to avoid childbearing in the short term without clear goals for long-term fertility. Although postponement is fundamentally a description of fertility desires, existing quantitative research has primarily studied fertility behavior in an effort to find evidence for the model. In this study, we use longitudinal survey data to consider whether postponement can be identified in standard measures of fertility desires among reproductive-age women in rural Mozambique. Findings show strong evidence for a postponement mindset in this population, but postponement coexists with stopping and spacing goals. We reflect on the difference between birth spacing and postponement and consider whether and how postponement is a distinctive sub-Saharan phenomenon.

Childbearing desires and behaviour: a prospective assessment in Nairobi slums

BACKGROUND

Advancing an understanding of childbearing desires is an important precursor to achievement of the policy goal of reducing unintended pregnancies. It has been long debated that concepts of fertility desires and planning may be particularly problematic in sub-Saharan Africa. However, examination of the utility of fertility preference measures and their link to reproductive behaviour is still rare in the region. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive validity of future childbearing desires on subsequent reproduction among women living in the highly unpredictable circumstances of Nairobi slums.

METHODS

We used data from a longitudinal study (2007-2010) nested in the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System that is located in two slums in Nairobi, Kenya. We analysed baseline fertility desires among 4577 postpartum women. Cox proportional hazard model was employed to examine the effect of fertility desires on subsequent reproduction.

RESULTS

One-third of the women wanted no more children and 37% wanted to wait for at least five years at baseline. While two-thirds of the women who wanted to have a child soon became pregnant within three years, less than one-third of those wanting no more children became pregnant. The multivariable analysis shows that the probability of becoming pregnant among women who expressed desires to stop or delay childbearing at least for five years was 50% less than among women who wanted to have a child in two to four years. In addition to prospective fertility desires, level of woman's education, residence and ethnicity exerted important influences on implementation of baseline preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study finds a strong link between baseline fertility desires and subsequent reproduction. A large difference in pregnancy risk was observed between those who wanted no more children and those who wanted another child. The link between a woman's stated desire to stop childbearing and subsequent childbearing is just as strong in the Nairobi slums as elsewhere. In addition, the findings revealed a pronounced gradient in pregnancy risk according to preferred spacing length, which support other evidence on the important contribution of long-term spacing or postponement to fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa.

Tsogolo la Thanzi: A Longitudinal Study of Young Adults Living in Malawi's HIV Epidemic

Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) was designed to study how young adults navigate sexual relationships and childbearing during a generalized HIV epidemic. TLT began in 2009 with a population-representative sample of 1,505 women and 574 men between the ages of 15 and 25 living in Balaka, southern Malawi, where regional adult HIV prevalence then stood at 15 percent. The first phase (2009-11) included a series of eight interviews, spaced four months apart. During this time, women's romantic and sexual partners enrolled in the study on an ongoing basis. A refresher sample of 315 women was added in 2012. Seventy-eight percent of respondents were re-interviewed in the second phase of TLT (2015), which consisted of follow-up interviews approximately 3.5 years after the previous interview (ages 21-31). At each wave, detailed information about fertility intentions and behaviors, relationships, sexual behavior, health, and a range of sociodemographic and economic traits was gathered by means of face-to-face surveys. Biomarkers for HIV and pregnancy were also collected. Distinguishing features include: a population-representative sample, closely spaced data collection, dyadic data on couples over time, and an experimental approach to HIV testing and counseling. Data are available through restricted data-user agreements managed by Data Sharing for Demographic Research (DSDR) at the University of Michigan.

Conceptualizing Childbearing Ambivalence: A Social and Dynamic Perspective

Childbearing ambivalence is often conceptualized as a state of conflicting desires about having a child that is characteristic of particular individuals and/or life stages. This study proposes that childbearing ambivalence is dynamic and situational, resulting from the multiple socio-cultural frames surrounding childbearing. Using eight waves of prospective data from a population-based sample of young adults in Malawi, results show that 41% of women and 48% of men are ambivalent about childbearing at some point in the 2.5-year study. There is limited evidence that ambivalence is related to individual sociodemographic or psychosocial characteristics aside from gender; rather, ambivalence is tied to life course markers such as school enrollment and age. Additionally, life course transitions and changes in relationships, health, and economic factors are associated with the onset of ambivalence, supporting the theory that ambivalence is a dynamic state that men and women frequently pass through as their lives and circumstances change.

Fertility Preferences and Cognition: Religiosity and Experimental Effects of Decision Context on College Women

Better models of culture and cognition may help researchers understand fertility and family formation. We examine cognition about fertility using an experimental survey design to investigate how fertility preferences of college women are affected by two prompts that bring to mind fertility-relevant factors: career aspirations and financial limitations. We test the effects of these prompts on fertility preferences and ask how effects vary with respondent religiosity, an aspect of social identity related to fertility preferences. We find significant effects of treatment on fertility preferences when accounting for religiosity: less religious women who considered their career aspirations or financial limitations reported smaller desired family size, but this effect was attenuated for more religious women. Our study demonstrates how fertility preferences are shaped by decision contexts for some socio-demographic groups. We discuss how the findings support a social-cognitive model of fertility.

Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women's desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.

The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993-2011

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response-such as 'don't know' or 'it's up to God'-have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women's 'calculus of conscious choice'. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country's fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women's likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.

Reasons for unmet need for family planning, with attention to the measurement of fertility preferences: protocol for a multi-site cohort study

Background

Unmet need for family planning points to the gap between women’s reproductive desire to avoid pregnancy and contraceptive behaviour. An estimated 222 million women in low- and middle-income countries have unmet need for modern contraception. Despite its prevalence, there has been little rigorous research during the past fifteen years on reasons for this widespread failure to implement childbearing desires in contraceptive practice. There is demographic survey data on women’s self-reported reasons for non-use, but these data provide limited insight on the full set of possible obstacles to use, and one may doubt the meaningfulness of explanations provided by non-users alone. To rectify this evidence gap, this study will gather extensive information on women’s perceptions of contraception (generic and method-specific) and their past contraceptive experience, and it will allow for more complexity in fertility preferences than is standard in demographic surveys.

Methods

A multi-site cohort study will be conducted in urban Kenya, rural Kenya, and rural Bangladesh. In each setting trained fieldworkers will recruit and interview 2600 women, with participants re-interviewed at 12 and 18 months. Data will be collected using a questionnaire whose development was informed by a review of existing literature and instruments from past studies in both developed and developing countries. Dozens of experts in the field were consulted as the instrument was developed. The questionnaire has three main components: a sub-set of Demographic and Health Survey items measuring socio-demographic characteristics, reproductive history, and sexual activity; additional questions on prospective and retrospective fertility preferences designed to capture ambivalence and uncertainty; and two large blocks of items on (i) generic concerns about contraception and (ii) method-specific attributes. The method-specific items encompass eight modern and traditional methods.

Discussion

Policy and programmes intended to reduce unmet need for contraception in developing countries should be informed by clear understanding of the causes of this phenomenon to better reflect the population needs and to more effectively target planning and investments. To this end, this study will field an innovative instrument in Kenya and Bangladesh. The information to be collected will support a rigorous assessment of reasons for unmet need for family planning.

Difficulties Conceiving and Relationship Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Ghana

Little is known about the relationship between self-identified difficulties conceiving, biomedical infertility, and union instability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Previous research suggests that infertility increases the risk of psychological distress and marital conflict, encourages risky sexual behaviour, and deprives infertile individuals and couples of an important source of economic and social capital. Qualitative research has suggested that there may be a link between infertility and divorce; less is known about the implications of infertility for unmarried couples. In this paper, discrete-time hazard models are applied to 8 waves of secondary panel data from Ghana collected by the Population Council of New York and the University of Cape Coast (pooled n = 10,418) between 1998 and 2004. Results show a positive relationship between perceived difficulties conceiving and relationship instability for both married women and those in non-marital sexual unions; this relationship, however, does not hold for biomedical infertility. Future research should examine this relationship using nationally representative data in a cross-national comparison to determine whether results hold across the subcontinent.

Capturing Complexities of Relationship-Level Family Planning Trajectories in Malawi

In a transitioning fertility climate, preferences and decisions surrounding family planning are constantly in flux. Malawi provides an ideal case study of family planning complexities as fertility preferences are flexible, the relationship context is unstable, and childbearing begins early. I use intensive longitudinal data from Tsogolo la Thanzi-a research project in Malawi that follows young adults in romantic partnerships through the course of their relationship. I examine two questions: (1) What are the typical patterns of family planning as young adults transition through a relationship? (2) How are family planning trajectories related to individual and relationship-level characteristics? I use sequence analysis to order family planning across time and to contextualize it within each relationship. I generate and cluster the family planning trajectories and find six distinct groups of young adults who engage in family planning in similar ways. I find that family planning is complex, dynamic, and unique to each relationship. I argue that (a) family planning research should use the relationship as the unit of analysis and (b) family planning behaviors and preferences should be sequenced over time for a better understanding of key concepts, such as unmet need.

The Relationship between Partners' Family-Size Preferences in Southern Malawi

Studies of the relative influence of partners' fertility preferences on behaviors tend to treat preferences as fixed, largely independent traits despite existing theoretical arguments and empirical evidence suggesting that they are moving targets that may be jointly developed within relationships. In this study, we use couple-level panel data from married and unmarried young adults in southern Malawi to examine the relationship between partners' family-size preferences. We find evidence of assortative mating: young Malawians are more likely to partner with individuals who have similar family-size goals. Additionally, although partners' family-size preferences do not perfectly converge, changes among men's and women's preferences are significantly more likely to be "toward" than "away from" those of their partner. Our findings point to a need for studies regarding the relative influence of partners on reproductive outcomes to consider the interdependence of partners' preferences and the varied ways in which partners can influence shared reproductive behaviors.

Death and Desirability: Retrospective Reporting of Unintended Pregnancy After a Child's Death

Social scientists have long debated how to best measure pregnancy intentions. The standard measure relies on mothers' retrospective reports of their intentions at the time of conception. Because women have already given birth at the time of this report, the resulting children's health-including their vital status-may influence their mothers' responses. We hypothesize that women are less likely to report that deceased children were from unintended pregnancies, which may explain why some cross-sectional studies have shown that children from unintended pregnancies have higher survival, despite the fact that longitudinal studies have shown the opposite is true. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 31 sub-Saharan African countries, we confirm that mothers are less likely to report that deceased children resulted from unintended pregnancies compared with surviving children. However, the opposite is true for unhealthy children: mothers more commonly report that unhealthy children were from unintended pregnancies compared with healthier children. The results suggest that mothers (1) revise their recall of intentions after the traumatic experience of child death and/or (2) alter their reports in the face-to-face interview. The study challenges the reliability of retrospective reports of pregnancy intentions in high-mortality settings and thus also our current knowledge of the levels and consequences of unintended pregnancies in these contexts.

The sensitivity of measures of unwanted and unintended pregnancy using retrospective and prospective reporting: evidence from Malawi

A thorough understanding of the health implications of unwanted and unintended pregnancies is constrained by our ability to accurately identify them. Commonly used techniques for measuring such pregnancies are subject to two main sources of error: the ex post revision of preferences after a pregnancy and the difficulty of identifying preferences at the time of conception. This study examines the implications of retrospective and prospective measurement approaches, which are vulnerable to different sources of error, on estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancies. We use eight waves of closely-spaced panel data from young women in southern Malawi to generate estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancies based on fertility preferences measured at various points in time. We then compare estimates using traditional retrospective and prospective approaches to estimates obtained when fertility preferences are measured prospectively within months of conception. The 1,062 young Malawian women in the sample frequently changed their fertility preferences. The retrospective measures slightly underestimated unwanted and unintended pregnancies compared to the time-varying prospective approach; in contrast the fixed prospective measures overestimated them. Nonetheless, most estimates were similar in aggregate, suggesting that frequent changes in fertility preferences need not lead to dramatically different estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancy. Greater disagreement among measures emerged when classifying individual pregnancies. Carefully designed retrospective measures are not necessarily more problematic for measuring unintended and unwanted fertility than are more expensive fixed prospective ones.

Fertility desires, family planning use and pregnancy experience: longitudinal examination of urban areas in three African countries

Background

Many women have inconsistent fertility desires and contraceptive use behaviors. This increases their risk of unintended pregnancies. Inconsistencies may reflect barriers to family planning (FP) use but may also reflect ambivalence toward future childbearing. Using urban data from Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal, this study examines the role of fertility desires and FP use behaviors on pregnancy experience over a 2-year follow-up period.

Methods

Data come from baseline and 2-year follow-up among urban women interviewed in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. At baseline (2010/2011), women were asked about their future fertility desires (want child soon, want to delay >2 years, does not want) and current FP use. At midterm (2012/2013), women were asked if they were currently pregnant or had a birth in the 2-year period. We examine the association between baseline fertility desires and FP use with pregnancy experience and desirability of an experienced pregnancy.

Results

In the 2-year follow-up period, 27–39 % of women in union experienced a pregnancy or birth. In Kenya and Nigeria, 30–35 % of women using a modern FP method experienced a pregnancy/birth; the percentage with a pregnancy/birth was slightly higher among women not using at baseline (41 % in both countries). In Senegal, the distinction between pregnancy experience between users and non-users was greater (16 % vs. 31 %, respectively). In all countries, pregnancy was less common among users of long-acting and permanent methods; only a small percentage of women use these methods. Women not wanting any(more) children were the least likely to experience a pregnancy in the 2-year follow-up period. No differences were observed between those who wanted to delay and those who wanted soon. Multivariate findings demonstrate distinctions in pregnancy experience by fertility desires among modern FP users. Non-users have similar pregnancy experience by fertility desires.

Conclusions

Fertility desires are not stable; providers need to consider the fluidity of fertility desires in counseling clients. Programs focusing on new FP users may miss women who are the most motivated to avoid a pregnancy and need to switch to a more effective method; this will result in less unintended pregnancies overall.

An Assessment of Childbearing Preferences in Northern Malawi

Fertility preferences are an essential component of family planning program evaluation; however, doubts about their validity in sub-Saharan Africa exist and little methodological assessment has been carried out. This study investigates prospective fertility intentions in terms of their temporal stability, intensity, degree of spousal agreement, and association with future childbearing in northern Malawi. A total of 5,222 married women participated in the three-round study. The odds of having a child or becoming pregnant within 36 months were 4.2 times higher when both wife and husband wanted a child within three years and 2 times higher when both wanted to wait at least three years, compared with the odds when both wanted to cease childbearing. The influence of husbands’ and wives’ preferences on subsequent fertility was equal. Compared with the intention to stop, the intention to postpone childbearing was less stable, recorded less spousal agreement, and was much less strongly predictive of fertility.

Does Schooling Affect Women's Desired Fertility? Evidence From Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia

Demographic scholarship suggests that schooling plays an important role in transforming fertility preferences in the early stages of fertility decline. However, there is limited evidence on the relationship between schooling and fertility preferences that addresses the endogeneity of schooling. I use the implementation of Universal Primary Education (UPE) policies in Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia in the mid-1990s to conduct a fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis of the effect of schooling on women's desired fertility. Findings indicate that increased schooling reduced women's ideal family size and very high desired fertility across all three countries. Additional analyses of potential pathways through which schooling could have affected desired fertility suggest some pathways--such as increasing partner's education--were common across contexts, whereas other pathways were country-specific. This analysis contributes to demographic understandings of the factors influencing individual-level fertility behaviors and thus aggregate-level fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa.

Fertility among orphans in rural Malawi: challenging common assumptions about risk and mechanisms

CONTEXT

Although a substantial literature suggests that orphans suffer disadvantage relative to nonorphaned peers, the nature of this disadvantage and the mechanisms driving it are poorly understood. Some evidence suggests that orphans experience elevated fertility, perhaps because structural disadvantage leads them to engage in sexual risk-taking. An alternative explanation is that orphans intentionally become pregnant to achieve a sense of normality, acceptance and love.

METHODS

Data from the 2006 wave of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health on 1,033 young adults aged 15-25 were used to examine the relationship of maternal and paternal orphanhood with sexual risk indicators and desired and actual fertility. Regression analyses were used to adjust for covariates, including social and demographic characteristics and elapsed time since parental death.

RESULTS

Twenty-six percent of respondents had lost their father and 15% their mother. Orphanhood was not associated with sexual risk-taking. However, respondents whose mother had died in the past five years desired more children than did those whose mother was still alive (risk differences, 0.52 among women and 0.97 among men). Actual fertility was elevated among women whose father had died more than five years earlier (0.31) and among men whose mother had died in the past five years (1.06) or more than five years earlier (0.47).

CONCLUSION

The elevations in desired and actual fertility among orphans are consistent with the hypothesis that orphans intentionally become pregnant. Strategies that address personal desires for parenthood may need to be part of prevention programs aimed at orphaned youth.

Selection bias in the link between child wantedness and child survival: theory and data from Matlab, Bangladesh

We examine the potential effects of selection bias on the association between unwanted births and child mortality from 7,942 women from Matlab, Bangladesh who declared birth intentions in 1990 prior to conceiving pregnancies. We explore and test two opposing reasons for bias in the distribution of observed births. First, some women who report not wanting more children could face starvation or frailty; and if these women are infecund, the remaining unwanted births would appear more healthy. Second, some women who report not wanting more children could have social privileges in acquiring medical services, abortion, and contraceptives; and if these women avoid births, the remaining unwanted births would appear less healthy. We find (1) no overall effect of unwantedness on child survival in rural Bangladesh in the 1990s, (2) no evidence that biological processes are spuriously making the birth cohort look more healthy, and (3) some evidence that higher schooling for women who avoid unwanted births is biasing the observed sample to make unwanted births look less healthy. Efforts to understand the effect of unwantedness in data sets that do not control for complex patterns of selective birth may be misleading and require more cautious interpretation.

Unmet need and fertility decline: a comparative perspective on prospects in sub-Saharan Africa

This study assesses how changes in unmet need for family planning have contributed to contemporary fertility declines, and the implications of this historical record for further fertility decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine joint trends at the national level in fertility, unintended fertility, and unmet need. We bring unintended fertility into the analysis because the underlying rationale for reducing unmet need is to avert unintended pregnancies and births. The association over time between unmet need and fertility is investigated using survey data from 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean from the mid-1970s to the present. The empirical analysis finds that reduction in unmet need, especially unmet need for limiting, is strongly associated with fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and North Africa. Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is weakly associated with trends in unmet need (and satisfaction of demand). We propose that the stark regional difference is due to measurement problems and to the fundamentally different character of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, itself reflective of basic differences in pretransition reproductive regimes.

Bucking social norms: examining anomalous fertility aspirations in the face of HIV in Lusaka, Zambia

In settings of high fertility and high HIV prevalence, individuals are making fertility decisions while simultaneously trying to avoid or manage HIV. We sought to increase our understanding of how individuals dually manage HIV risk while attempting to achieve their fertility goals as part of the project entitled HIV Status and Achieving Fertility Desires conducted in Zambia in 2011. Using multivariate regression to predict fertility patterns based on socio-demographic characteristics for respondents from facility-based and community-based surveys, we employed Anomalous Case Analysis (ACA) whereby in-depth interview respondents were selected from the groups of outliers amongst the survey respondents who reported lower or higher fertility preferences than predicted as well as those who adhered to predicted patterns, and lived in Lusaka (n=45). All of the facility-based respondents were HIV-positive. We utilize the Theory of Conjunctural Action (TCA) to categorize domains of influence on individuals' preferences and behavior. Both community-based and facility-based right-tail respondents (outliers whose fertility intentions indicated that they wanted a/nother child when we predicted that they did not) expressed comparatively less control over their fertility and gave more weight to pressures from others to continue childbearing. Partner communication about fertility desires was greater among left-tail respondents (outliers whose fertility intentions indicated that they did not want a/nother child when we predicted that they did). HIV-positive right-tail respondents were more likely to see anti-retroviral therapies (ARTs) which prevent mother to child transmission of HIV as highly effective, mitigating inhibitions to further childbearing. Drug interactions between ARTs and contraceptives were identified as a limitation to HIV-positive individuals' contraceptive options on both sides of the distribution. Factors that should be taken into account in the future to understand fertility behavior in high HIV-prevalent settings include couples' communication around fertility and perception of the efficacy of ARTs.