Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989-2014

Armed conflict, insecurity, and attitudes toward women's and girls' reproductive autonomy in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Armed conflict and insecurity have been linked to deteriorations in reproductive health and rights globally. In Nigeria, armed violence has taken a significant toll on women's and girls' health and safety. However, knowledge is limited about how conflict shapes attitudes surrounding their ability to make autonomous decisions on relationships and childbearing. Drawing on a socioecological framework and terror management theory, we aimed to investigate the association between conflict, insecurity, and attitudes toward women's and girls' reproductive autonomy in Nigeria.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from two sources: the World Values Survey (WVS) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program-Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP-GED). Nationally representative data on attitudes of 559 men and 534 women was collected by WVS in 2017-2018. Linear probability models estimated the association between attitudes toward five dimensions of women and girl's reproductive autonomy (contraception, safe abortion, marital decision-making, delayed childbearing, early marriage), respondents' perceptions of neighborhood insecurity using WVS data, and geospatial measures of conflict exposure drawn from UCDP-GED.

RESULTS

Exposure to armed conflict and perceived neighborhood insecurity were associated with more supportive attitudes toward access to safe abortion among both men and women. Among women, conflict exposure was associated with higher support for contraception and the perception that early marriage can provide girls with security. Conflict-affected men were more likely to support a delay in girls' childbearing.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that conflict and insecurity pose a threat to, but also facilitate opportunities for, women's and girls' reproductive autonomy. Contraception, abortion, early marriage, and postponement or childbearing may be perceived as risk-aversion strategies in response to mortality threats, livelihood losses, and conflict-driven sexual violence. Our findings foreshadow changes in fertility and relationship patterns in conflict-affected Nigeria and highlight the need for health programming to ensure access to contraception and safe abortion services.

Examining the relationship between armed conflict and coverage of maternal and child health services in 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: a geospatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Armed conflict is on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa and affects public infrastructures, including health systems, although evidence on population health is sparse. We aimed to establish how these disruptions ultimately affect health service coverage.

METHODS

We geospatially matched Demographic and Health Survey data with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset, covering 35 countries for the period from 1990 to 2020. We relied on linear probability models with fixed effects to capture the effect of nearby armed conflict (within 50 km of the survey cluster) on four service coverage indicators along the continuum of maternal and child health care. We also investigated effect heterogeneity by varying conflict intensity and duration, and sociodemographic status.

FINDINGS

The estimated coefficients represent the decrease in the probability (in percentage points) of the child or their mother being covered by the respective health service following deadly conflicts within 50 km. Any nearby armed conflict was associated with reduced coverage for all examined health services, with the exception of early antenatal care: early antenatal care (-0·5 percentage points, 95% CI -1·1 to 0·1), facility-based delivery (-2·0, -2·5 to -1·4), timely childhood vaccination (-2·5, -3·1 to -1·9), and treatment of common childhood illnesses (-2·5, -3·5 to -1·4). For all four health services, the negative effects increased for high-intensity conflicts and were significant throughout. When examining conflict duration, we did not find negative effects on the treatment of common childhood illnesses in prolonged conflicts. The analysis on effect heterogeneity revealed that, except for timely childhood vaccination, the negative effects of armed conflict on health service coverage were more pronounced in urban settings.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that health service coverage is significantly affected by contemporaneous conflict, but health systems can adapt to provide routine services, such as child curative services, in situations of prolonged conflict. Our analysis underlines the importance of studying health service coverage during conflict both at the finest possible scales and across different indicators, pointing at the need for differential policy interventions.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATIONS

For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Area level indirect exposure to extended conflicts and early childhood anthropometric outcomes in India: a repeat cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Protracted, internal conflicts with geographic variations within countries, are an important understudied community exposure for adverse child health outcomes.

METHODS

Violent events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) between January 2016-December 2020 and January 2010-December 2015, were included as exposure events for children sampled in National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) 5 (2019-21) and NFHS 4 (2015-16), respectively. Geocoded data from UCDP were merged with residential clusters from NFHS, to identify children living in villages or urban blocks situated at <= 50 km from conflict sites. Within these clusters, which we defined as conflict exposed, we studied risks of stunting, underweight and wasting in children, prenatally, and in 0-3 years. We assessed sensitivity on a subsample of siblings with discordant conflict exposures.

RESULTS

For NFHS 5, exposure to violence between 0 and 3 years was associated with 1.16 times (95% CI 1.11-1.20) higher risks of stunting, 1.08 (1.04, 1.12) times higher risks of underweight, and no change in wasting. In-utero violence exposure was associated with 1.11 times (95% CI 1.04-1.17) higher risks of stunting, 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14) times higher risks of underweight, and no change in wasting, among children <= 2 years. In 17,760 siblings of 8333 mothers, exposure to violence during 0-3 years, was associated with a 1.19 times higher risk of stunting (95% CI - 0.24 to 0.084). Incremental quartiles of violence exposure had higher risks of stunting and underweight until quartile 3.

CONCLUSION

In-utero and early childhood indirect exposure to protracted conflicts were associated with increased stunting and underweight in India. Given the continued exposures of such historically and contextually rooted internal conflicts in many LMICs, chronic violence exposures should be targeted in public health policies as important social and political determinant of child health.

Terrorist Attacks in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1970 through 2020: Analysis and Impact from a Counter-Terrorism Medicine Perspective

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has become a hotspot for global terrorism, with nearly 50% of global terror-related deaths occurring in SSA in 2021. With a large population and complex geopolitical and social climate, terrorist activity further burdens an already strained medical system. This study provides a retrospective descriptive analysis of terrorist-related activity in SSA from 1970-2020.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was performed for the region of SSA from 1970-2020. Data were filtered using the internal database search function for all events in the following countries: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, People's Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Rhodesia, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Number of attacks, deaths, and injuries, as well as primary weapons types, country where attacks occurred, and primary target types, were collated and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total 19,320 attacks were recorded, resulting in 77,565 deaths and 52,986 injuries. Firearms were the most frequent weapons used (8,745), followed by explosives (6,031), unknown (2,615), and incendiary (1,246), with all others making up the remainder (683.) Private citizens and property were the most frequently targeted entities (8,031), followed by general government facilities (2,582), police (1,854), business (1,446), military (805), diplomatic government facilities (741), and religious figures/institution (678), with all other targets making up the remainder (3,183).

CONCLUSION

The majority of deaths from terrorism in SSA are the result of firearm attacks and explosions. Nigeria, Somalia, South Africa, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan have had the largest number of attacks since 1970, and Nigeria has the largest number of people killed and injured. The health implications of terrorist attacks are often compounded by violence and pose unique challenges to governments, populations, and aid organizations. By understanding the impact and scope of terrorist activity in SSA, Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) initiatives can be employed to improve health care outcomes.

Evolution of assisted deliveries at primary healthcare centres in an unstable security context in Mali

INTRODUCTION

In Mali, healthcare systems are severely affected by conflict. However, several studies suggest a lack of knowledge about its impact on maternal healthcare. Frequent and repeated attacks increase insecurity, limit access to maternal care, and thus represent a barrier to accessing care. The objective of this study is to understand how assisted deliveries are being reorganised at the health centre level, and how they are adapting to the security crisis.

METHOD

This is a mixed sequential and explanatory study. The quantitative approaches combine a spatial scan analysis of assisted deliveries by health centres, an analysis of health centre performance using an ascending hierarchical classification, and a spatial analysis of violent events in two health districts in central Mali: Mopti and Bandiagara. The qualitative phase analyses semidirective and targeted interviews with managers (n=22) of primary healthcare centres (CsCOM) and two agents of international institutions.

RESULTS

The study reveals an important territorial heterogeneity of assisted deliveries. The primary health centres with high rates of assisted deliveries have mainly high-performance levels. This high level of use can be explained by the movement of the population to areas less exposed to attacks. The centres with low rates of assisted deliveries are those where qualified health workers refused to practice, where populations had few financial resources, and where they limited their travel to reduce their exposure to insecurity.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that combining methodological approaches is essential to explain significant use in the local context. The analysis of the number of assisted deliveries in conflict zones must consider the number of procedures, the nearby security context, the number of internally displaced persons and the presence of camps in which humanitarian organisations offer programmes.

Protracted armed conflict and maternal health: a scoping review of literature and a retrospective analysis of primary data from northwest Syria

Introduction

Syria’s protracted conflict has devastated the health system reversing progress made on maternal health preconflict. Our aim is to understand the state of maternal health in Syria focused on underage pregnancy and caesarean sections using a scoping review and quantitative analysis; the latter draws on data from the Syrian American Medical Society’s (SAMS) maternal health facilities in northwest Syria.

Methods

We performed a scoping review of academic and grey literature on the state of maternal health across Syria since the onset of conflict (taken as March 2011). Identified articles were screened using pre-established criteria and themes identified. We also performed a retrospective quantitative analysis of maternal health data from SAMS’ facilities in a microcontext in north-west Syria between March 2017 and July 2020, analysing the trends in the proportion of births by caesarean section and age at pregnancy.

Results

Scoping review: of 2824 articles, 21 remained after screening. Main themes related to maternal mortality rates, caesarean sections, maternal age and perinatal care. 12 studies reported caesarean section rates; these varied from 16% to 64% of all births: northern Syria (19%–45%,) Damascus (16%–54%,) Lattakia (64%) and Tartous (59%.) Quantitative analysis: Of 77 746 births across 17 facilities, trend data for caesarean sections showed a decrease from 35% in March 2017 to 23% in July 2020 across SAMS facilities. Girls under 18 years accounted for 10% of births and had a lower proportion of caesarean section births. There was notable geographical and interfacility variation in the findings.

Conclusion

The quality of available literature was poor with country-level generalisations. Research which explores microcontexts in Syria is important given the different effects of conflict across the country and the fragmented health system. Our quantitative analysis provides some evidence around the changes to caesarean section rates in northwest Syria. Despite limitations, this study adds to sparse literature on this important topic.

Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem

Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.

The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage

Although a great deal of attention is paid to reproductive health during violent conflicts, the literature is sparse on the consequences of conflict for abortion and miscarriage. This research provides an analysis of a recent historical case: the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, using the female questionnaire of the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey to examine a subsample of 1,445 women surveyed who had reached menarche during or after the war and had been pregnant at least once by the time of the survey. The analysis leverages the uneven geographical scope of conflict events during the civil war to pinpoint women's exposure to violence, measured by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The results show that for women who had reached menarche during or after the civil war, exposure to conflict events increases the likelihood of ever experiencing miscarriage, but not abortion. Including a spatial lag operator reveals that there were also spillover effects for abortion, in which women who were in a broader region of uncertainty were more likely to induce an abortion. These findings highlight the role of institutional changes in affecting pregnancy loss during and after civil war.

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

Armed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions-all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data for 181 countries (2000-2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country-year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9-72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million-0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1-5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million-2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%-8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%-11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3-5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

Effects of terrorist attacks on access to maternal healthcare services: a national longitudinal study in Burkina Faso

INTRODUCTION

Most of the literature on terrorist attacks' health impacts has focused on direct victims rather than on distal consequences in the overall population. There is limited knowledge on how terrorist attacks can be detrimental to access to healthcare services. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of terrorist attacks on the utilisation of maternal healthcare services by examining the case of Burkina Faso.

METHODS

This longitudinal quasi-experimental study uses multiple interrupted time series analysis. Utilisation of healthcare services data was extracted from the National Health Information System in Burkina Faso. Data span the period of January 2013-December 2018 and include all public primary healthcare centres and district hospitals. Terrorist attack data were extracted from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. Negative binomial regression models were fitted with fixed effects to isolate the immediate and long-term effects of terrorist attacks on three outcomes (antenatal care visits, of facility deliveries and of cesarean sections).

RESULTS

During the next month of an attack, the incidence of assisted deliveries in healthcare facilities is significantly reduced by 3.8% (95% CI 1.3 to 6.3). Multiple attacks have immediate effects more pronounced than single attacks. Longitudinal analysis show that the incremental number of terrorist attacks is associated with a decrease of the three outcomes. For every additional attack in a commune, the incidence of cesarean sections is reduced by 7.7% (95% CI 4.7 to 10.7) while, for assisted deliveries, it is reduced by 2.5% (95% CI 1.9 to 3.1) and, for antenatal care visits, by 1.8% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.5).

CONCLUSION

Terrorist attacks constitute a new barrier to access of maternal healthcare in Burkina Faso. The exponential increase in terrorist activities in West Africa is expected to have negative effects on maternal health in the entire region.

The Effect of Reframing the Goals of Family Planning Programs from Limiting Fertility to Birth Spacing: Evidence from Pakistan

Contraceptive prevalence in Pakistan has plateaued near 34 percent for over a decade, suggesting that fertility levels are likely to stay high unless effective interventions are designed. We evaluate the Family Advancement for Life and Health 2007–2012 (FALAH), a family planning project implemented in 31 districts of Pakistan. Deviating from previous programs, FALAH emphasized birth spacing—as opposed to limiting family size—as the primary purpose of contraceptive use. We use Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey to evaluate FALAH's impact on continuous and binary measures of birth intervals. To estimate the causal effects of the project, we compare the outcomes for multiple children born to the same mother before and after the project. We find that FALAH increased interbirth intervals by 2.4 months on average and reduced the proportion of short birth intervals by approximately 7.1 percentage points. This finding suggests that birth spacing as a goal of contraceptive use may resonate better with Pakistani couples than limiting family size. The project's effects were more pronounced for women with high education, in rural areas, and in the middle of the wealth distribution.

Climate-related migration and population health: social science-oriented dynamic simulation model

BACKGROUND

Social science models find the ecological impacts of climate change (EICC) contribute to internal migration in developing countries and, less so, international migration. Projections expect massive climate-related migration in this century. Nascent research calls to study health, migration, population, and armed conflict potential together, accounting for EICC and other factors. System science offers a way: develop a dynamic simulation model (DSM). We aim to validate the feasibility and usefulness of a pilot DSM intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and a basis for identifying model extensions to make it less simplified and more realistic.

METHODS

Studies have separately examined essential parts. Our DSM integrates their results and computes composites of health problems (HP), health care (HC), non-EICC environmental health problems (EP), and environmental health services (ES) by origin site and by immigrants and natives in a destination site, and conflict risk and intensity per area. The exogenous variables include composites of EICC, sociopolitical, economic, and other factors. We simulate the model for synthetic input values and conduct sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The simulation results refer to generic origin and destination sites anywhere on Earth. The effects' sizes are likely inaccurate from a real-world view, as our input values are synthetic. Their signs and dynamics are plausible, internally consistent, and, like the sizes, respond logically in sensitivity analyses. Climate migration may harm public health in a host area even with perfect HC/ES qualities and full access; and no HP spillovers across groups, conflict, EICC, and EP. Deviations from these conditions may worsen everyone's health. We consider adaptation options.

CONCLUSIONS

This work shows we can start developing DSMs to understand climate migration and public health by examining each case with its own inputs. Validation of our pilot model suggests we can use it as intended. We lay a path to making it more realistic for policy analysis.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.

METHODS

We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.

RESULTS

We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

Exposure to conflict-related violence and nutritional status of children in Iraq

There is limited empirical evidence of the health effects of war-related violence on child nutritional status. Using unique micro-level data from Iraq, we create measures of cumulative exposure to violence since conception for children ages two to five based on their date of birth and geographic location. We examine the relationship between height-for-age z-scores, a measure of chronic malnutrition, and four indicators of violence in a regression framework, adjusting for potential confounders and trends. We find that a child exposed to the maximum number of violent incidents is likely to experience a 0.5 standard deviation reduction in height-for-age z-score compared to a child who is exposed to no incidents. Each type of attack we evaluate is negatively associated with height-for-age. Further analysis reveals that the associations are the strongest for children in the northern and central regions where the bulk of the violent incidents occurred. Contrary to our expectation, the associations are similar for boys and girls. Our findings suggest that, in addition to efforts aimed at decreasing violent conflict in Iraq in general, the government and its development partners should focus relief, recovery, and reconstruction efforts in the central and northern regions of the country.

A Scoping Review of Spatial Analysis Approaches Using Health Survey Data in Sub-Saharan Africa

Spatial analysis has become an increasingly used analytic approach to describe and analyze spatial characteristics of disease burden, but the depth and coverage of its usage for health surveys data in Sub-Saharan Africa are not well known. The objective of this scoping review was to conduct an evaluation of studies using spatial statistics approaches for national health survey data in the SSA region. An organized literature search for studies related to spatial statistics and national health surveys was conducted through PMC, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, NLM Catalog, and Science Direct electronic databases. Of the 4,193 unique articles identified, 153 were included in the final review. Spatial smoothing and prediction methods were predominant (n = 108), followed by spatial description aggregation (n = 25), and spatial autocorrelation and clustering (n = 19). Bayesian statistics methods and lattice data modelling were predominant (n = 108). Most studies focused on malaria and fever (n = 47) followed by health services coverage (n = 38). Only fifteen studies employed nonstandard spatial analyses (e.g., spatial model assessment, joint spatial modelling, accounting for survey design). We recommend that for future spatial analysis using health survey data in the SSA region, there must be an improve recognition and awareness of the potential dangers of a naïve application of spatial statistical methods. We also recommend a wide range of applications using big health data and the future of data science for health systems to monitor and evaluate impacts that are not well understood at local levels.

Women, children and adolescents in conflict countries: an assessment of inequalities in intervention coverage and survival

Introduction

Conflict adversely impacts health and health systems, yet its effect on health inequalities, particularly for women and children, has not been systematically studied. We examined wealth, education and urban/rural residence inequalities for child mortality and essential reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health interventions between conflict and non-conflict low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

We carried out a time-series multicountry ecological study using data for 137 LMICs between 1990 and 2017, as defined by the 2019 World Bank classification. The data set covers approximately 3.8 million surveyed mothers (15-49 years) and 1.1 million children under 5 years including newborns (<1 month), young children (1-59 months) and school-aged children and adolescents (5-14 years). Outcomes include annual maternal and child mortality rates and coverage (%) of family planning services, 1+antenatal care visit, skilled attendant at birth (SBA), exclusive breast feeding (0-5 months), early initiation of breast feeding (within 1 hour), neonatal protection against tetanus, newborn postnatal care within 2 days, 3 doses of diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus vaccine, measles vaccination, and careseeking for pneumonia and diarrhoea.

Results

Conflict countries had consistently higher maternal and child mortality rates than non-conflict countries since 1990 and these gaps persist despite rates continually declining for both groups. Access to essential reproductive and maternal health services for poorer, less educated and rural-based families was several folds worse in conflict versus non-conflict countries.

Conclusions

Inequalities in coverage of reproductive/maternal health and child vaccine interventions are significantly worse in conflict-affected countries. Efforts to protect maternal and child health interventions in conflict settings should target the most disadvantaged families including the poorest, least educated and those living in rural areas.

Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood

Background

The population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.

Methods

We tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15–49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.

Findings

We analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97–128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3–8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187–218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.

Interpretation

African women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Armed conflict and maternal mortality: A micro-level analysis of sub-Saharan Africa, 1989-2013

There is existing country-level evidence that countries with more severe armed conflict tend to have higher Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR). However, during armed conflict, the actual fighting is usually confined to a limited area within a country, affecting a subset of the population. Hence, studying the link between country-level armed conflict and MMR may involve ecological fallacies. We provide a more direct, nuanced test of whether local exposure to armed conflict impacts maternal mortality, building on the so-called "sisterhood method". We combine geo-coded data on different types of violent events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program with geo-referenced survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) on respondents' reports on sisters dying during pregnancy, childbirth, or the puerperium. Our sample covers 1,335,161 adult sisters aged 12-45 by 539,764 female respondents in 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Rather than aggregating the deaths of sisters to generate a maternal mortality ratio, we analyze the sisters' deaths at the individual level. We use a sister fixed-effects analysis to estimate the impact of recent organized violence events within a radius of 50 km of the home of each respondent on the likelihood that her sister dies during pregnancy, childbirth, or the puerperium. Our results show that local exposure to armed conflict events indeed increases the risk of maternal deaths. Exploring potential moderators, we find larger differences in rural areas but also in richer and more educated areas.