From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women

Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis

The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.

Religiosity and trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions - Evidence from a German panel study

Much of the literature on fertility intentions has shown that they are broadly predictive of fertility behaviour. Fertility intentions tend to change over a person's life. How religiosity affects these changes over time has rarely been the subject of investigation. In this paper, we focus on whether and how religiosity affects trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions. Specifically, we examine whether highly religious people start with higher fertility intentions and are more likely to sustain them during their life course compared to their less religious counterparts. We apply random and fixed effects growth curve models to data from the German family panel pairfam, using a sample of 6214 women and 5802 men aged 14-46. We find that religiosity mainly contributes to explain the starting level at teenage years but not the trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions as people get older. Highly religious people start with higher intentions than less religious people. However, similarly to less religious people they experience a decline in their fertility intentions with age. This study demonstrates that religiosity is an important variable in research on fertility intentions but with changing relevance over the life course.

Pregnancies in the United States by Desire for Pregnancy: Estimates for 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015

We examine whether changes in U.S. pregnancy, birth, and abortion rates between 2009 and 2015 reflect underlying change in the incidence of pregnancies classified by retrospectively reported pregnancy desires: pregnancies reported as having occurred at about the right time, later than wanted, too soon, or not wanted at all, and those for which individuals expressed other feelings, including uncertainty, ambivalence, or indifference. We calculate the proportionate distributions of these pregnancies and rates among U.S. women aged 15-44, as well as change over time, overall and among age groups. Characterization of desires for a past pregnancy shifted in a number of ways between 2009 and 2015, and changes across age groups were not uniform. Rates of pregnancies reported as occurring later than wanted increased among older women, while rates of pregnancies reported as occurring too soon decreased among all women. These findings shed light on previous research documenting an increasing age at first birth, increasing rates of pregnancy and childbearing among the oldest age groups, and changes in patterns of contraceptive use, particularly among young women. Our analysis explores limitations and challenges of two major sources of data on pregnancies in the United States and their measures of retrospectively reported pregnancy desires.

The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post-Recession Years

The United States has experienced a sustained fertility decline, with those currently in their childbearing years facing unique constraints. Drawing from the Theory of Conjunctural Action and the Narratives of the Future framework, this work considers how objective and subjective socioeconomic conditions, psychosocial characteristics, and perceptions of well-being are linked to mothers' and childless women's (a) prospective fertility intentions during the Great Recession, (b) realization of those intentions in the post-Recession period, and (c) fertility intentions toward the end of the reproductive years, using Waves IV and V of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. The results confirm the role of standard socioeconomic measures and also highlight the importance of subjective measures. In general, more advantaged women were more likely to intend to have (more) children at both waves and to have children between waves. Furthermore, women who already had children by the Great Recession were more likely than their childless peers to have a(nother) child in the post-Recession period. As this cohort approaches the end of its childbearing years, having unfulfilled fertility plans from earlier in the reproductive life course is a strong predictor of continuing to intend at least one birth.

Changing Employment and Work Schedule Patterns over the 30 Working Years-A Sequential Cluster Analysis

OBJECTIVE

As labor markets have become increasingly volatile and precarious since 1980s, more workers are susceptible to working conditions such as unpredictable and unstable hours, threatening their economic security. However, our understanding of employment patterns regarding the changes in work schedules over our working lives has yet been established. This study builds our knowledge in this area by paying attention to how social positions may shape the specific work schedule patterns over our working lives.

METHODS

We used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (NLSY79) to examine our research questions. NLSY79 follows a nationally representative sample of United States men and women between the ages of 14 and 22 when first interviewed in 1979. The participants were then interviewed annually until 1994 and then biennially thereafter. We first conducted a sequence analysis to examine work schedule patterns between ages 22 and 53 (n = 7987). We then used a multinomial logit regression to examine the factors contributing to specific work schedule patterns, with attention to social position.

RESULTS

Our sequence analysis results suggest five work schedule patterns during 31 years of adult life: working only standard hours (25%), mainly standard hours with some portions of nonstandard hours (38%), standard hours during early working years but transitioning to either largely variable or mainly evening or night hours (14% and 13%), and mostly not working (10%). Our multinomial logit analysis indicates that being non-Hispanic Black, having a high school degree or below, or having ever experienced poverty or welfare by age 23 were more likely to have a nonstandard work schedule pattern than their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis underscores the dynamic employment patterns over our working lives, with some groups more likely than others to be engaged in nonstandard or volatile work schedules. Importantly, the groups likely to be subject to nonstandard work schedules also tend to have relatively disadvantaged social positions, thus worsening their vulnerability in securing work characterized by stability and economic security.

Neighborhood satisfaction and reproductive status

Both urban planners and urban scholars have been keenly interested in identifying the characteristics associated with neighborhood satisfaction. One robust but surprising pattern is that the presence or number of children in a household has no effect on neighborhood satisfaction. To clarify this pattern, we measured the neighborhood satisfaction of a representative sample of 1,000 Michigan adults, whom we divided into six distinct reproductive statuses: co-parents, single-parents, empty nesters, not-yet-parents, childless individuals, and childfree individuals. We found that a simple parent vs. non-parent dichotomy hides significant heterogeneity among these groups. Specifically, we found that single parents and childfree individuals experience significantly less neighborhood satisfaction than other groups. We conclude by reflecting on the methodological and practical implications of differences in neighborhood satisfaction when more nuanced reproductive statuses are considered.

"It changed the atmosphere surrounding the baby I did have": Making sense of reproduction during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the schemas that women employed during the COVID-19 pandemic to make sense of their reproductive desires.

BACKGROUND

Existing research on reproduction during epidemics suggests that there are variable population responses to periods of long-term social uncertainty. However, less is known about how individuals make sense of maintaining or adapting their reproductive desires during periods of social upheaval.

METHOD

Twenty-nine women aged 25-35 from a mid-sized Midwestern county in the United States were recruited and interviewed about their experiences during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. They were asked about their daily lived experiences and their reproductive desires during in-depth interviews. These interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic coding.

RESULTS

Participants used three normative schemas to describe their reproductive desires during the COVID-19 pandemic. Heteronormative schemas were used by many participants to articulate their commitment to a heteronormative aged-staged timeline of life events. Schemas of social support around being pregnant and giving birth were used by participants, primarily those who were currently or recently pregnant, to express grief and loss over the relational experience of having a new baby. Medicalized schemas were expressed by most participants to describe feelings of fear and risk at real or imagined encounters with medical institutions.

CONCLUSION

The schemas that participants used to make sense of their reproductive desires demonstrate how sense-making during a profound event that affects everyday realities allows participants to (re)articulate commitments to existing narratives that reinforce heterosexual, social, and medicalized hierarchies in reproduction.

Women’s contraceptive profiles in Burundi: Knowledge, attitudes, and interactions with media and health services

Reproductive health program managers seek information about existing and potential clients’ motivations, behaviors, and barriers to services. Using sequence and cluster analysis of contraceptive calendar data from the 2016–17 Burundi Demographic and Health Survey, we identified discrete clusters characterizing patterns in women’s contraceptive and pregnancy behaviors over the previous 5 years. This study pairs these clusters with data on factors typically targeted in social behavior change interventions: knowledge, attitudes, and women’s interactions with media and health services, to create composite profiles of women in these clusters. Of six clusters, three are characterized by contraceptive use and three are characterized by its absence. Media exposure and attitudes regarding sex preference, wife beating, and self-efficacy largely do not explain cluster membership. Contraceptive knowledge is positively associated with two clusters (Family Builder 1 and Traditional Mother) and negatively associated with a third (Quiet Calendar). Clusters also differ in their members’ fertility desires, contraceptive intentions, and interactions with health services. Two “Family Builder” clusters are both characterized by the presence (but not timing) of multiple pregnancies in their calendar histories, but differ in that women with high contraceptive knowledge, intentions to use contraception, and well-articulated family size ideals are characteristic of one cluster (Family Builder 1), and low contraceptive knowledge, no use of contraception, and vague family size preferences are characteristic of the other (Family Builder 2). These results can guide reproductive health programs as they target social and behavioral change and other interventions to the unique subpopulations they seek to serve.

Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility

The relationship between mortality and fertility is a key component of demographic transition theory, placing it at the center of extensive inquiry. Among other linkages, mortality in women's communities and social networks influences their subsequent fertility. Existing demographic research assumes this is principally due to volitional mechanisms, implying that exposure to mortality consolidates women's desire to become pregnant, leading to intended fertility. Yet, insights from other disciplines suggest that mortality exposure could also increase women's unintended fertility through psychological, relational, and behavioral mechanisms. This study examines the relationships between network mortality exposure and women's hazard of pregnancy, and of unintended pregnancy specifically. We analyze two years (2009-2011) of closely spaced panel data on young Malawian women (N=1,272) enrolled in the Tsogolo la Thanzi study. Our data include information on funeral attendance and fertility desires measured weeks before conception, which is confirmed through frequent pregnancy testing. Hazard models show that the number of funerals women attend corresponds with a higher hazard of pregnancy and of unintended pregnancy specifically. These findings make clear that mortality exposure can influence fertility not by shaping women's desires but by disrupting the realization of those desires.

Late fertility intentions increase over time in Austria, but chances to have a child at later ages remain low

Childbearing takes place at increasingly older ages, and fertility is continuing to decrease across female birth cohorts. This study investigated whether the proportion of women who unintentionally forwent childbearing increased over time, and linked this to the age profile of fertility intentions and realization among men and women. This study was based on the Austrian Micro-Censuses (1986-2016) and on the Austrian Generations and Gender Surveys (panel data 2008/09 and 2012/13). Across the birth cohorts 1950-1979, an increasing proportion of women wanted to have children after 40 years of age, but more women failed to meet their fertility intentions expressed at 34-36 years of age. At the individual level, from 30 years of age, more than one-third of women and men with a strong fertility intention were found to persist with this intention within four years even at less fertile ages. In addition, women and men with a strong fertility intention became less likely to have a child with age: <10% of women and approximately 20% of men who had expressed a certain and short-term intention to have a child at 39-41 years of age in 2008/09 had a child by 2012/13. In particular, childless women and men, and those with only one child, persisted in certain and short-term positive intentions from 30 years of age, but parity was not a significant factor in their realization. The sharp increase in 'unrealized fertility' over time draws attention to the importance that personal circumstances and context encountered at older ages may have for fertility, and augurs a continued increase in the use of assisted reproduction.

Childbearing Biographies and Midlife Women's Health

OBJECTIVES

We introduce a "childbearing biography" approach to show how multiple childbearing characteristics cluster in ways significant for midlife health.

METHODS

We analyze the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79; N = 3992) using mixed-mode Latent Class Analysis with eight childbearing variables (e.g., age at first birth, parity, birth spacing, and mistimed births) to identify how childbearing biographies are associated with midlife health, adjusting for key covariates-including socioeconomic status (SES) and relationship history.

RESULTS

We identify six childbearing biographies: (1) early compressed, (2) staggered, (3) extended high parity, (4) later, (5) married planned, and (6) childfree. Childbearing biographies are strongly associated with physical health but not mental health, with differences primarily explained by SES.

DISCUSSION

Different childbearing biographies are related to physical health inequalities above what is demonstrated by the typical use of one or two childbearing measures, providing a new perspective into the growing health gap among aging midlife women.

Demographic and Fertility Characteristics of Contraceptive Clusters in Burundi

Examining women's reproductive experiences over time reveals a more dynamic view of women's behaviors and needs than current status measures alone. This study uses sequence and cluster analyses, which are designed for identifying patterns and subgroups in longitudinal data. We apply these methods to contraceptive calendar data in Burundi to identify discrete clusters of women based on contraceptive and pregnancy behaviors over the past 5 years. We identify six unique clusters; three characterized by no use of contraception (85 percent of women) and three by use (16 percent). The Quiet Calendar cluster (42 percent) comprise women who neither experience pregnancy nor use contraception. Family Builder 1 (25 percent) and 2 (18 percent) both include women who experience two pregnancies, but differ in unmet need and lifetime experience with contraception. Modern Mother (8 percent), Consistently Covered Mother (6 percent), and Traditional Mother (2 percent) clusters differ by type of contraception used following pregnancy. Factors associated with cluster membership are need for family planning, lifetime experience with contraception, marital status, pregnancy intention, and age. This clustering approach provides a new, more holistic way to measure the diverse needs across unique subpopulations and can inform the development of multifaceted, adaptable strategies to meet women's dynamic fertility needs over the reproductive life course.

Why DID they have children? Rural midlife women who are childfree

There remain strong social pressures and attitudes in the United States about feminine identity, especially the expectation of conforming to the role of mother. Ideal femininity and being a mother are often intrinsically linked. Childfree women, those women who choose not to become mothers, face limited understanding, appreciation or acceptance to remain in a non-parenting role and are often presumed as less feminine or caring. This qualitative exploratory study of 10 childfree midlife women in a predominantly rural area of a Midwest state examines how reactions and attitudes of others affected self-esteem and feminine identity through a retrospective lens. Primary themes identified: Motherhood, as underscored by social and societal expectations and stigma; Personal Choice; and Feminine Self-Esteem are addressed. The influence of rural settings is also considered in the discussion. Recommendations for practice with older childfree women are provided.

The diversity of pathways to childlessness in the Czech Republic: The union histories of childless men and women

Despite the fact that not having a partner is a strong predictor for remaining childless, few studies have explored the heterogeneity of partnership trajectories among childless persons. This article fills the gap in knowledge about the pathways to childlessness in Central Europe by exploring the within-group diversity of partnership trajectories among childless persons between the ages of 18 and 40 under state socialism and during the post-1989 transformation in the Czech Republic. Based on data from the Gender and Generations Survey, we identify different types of union history among childless persons using sequence analysis and optimal matching-based clustering. Moreover, we directly assess variations in partnership trajectories across gender, education, and birth cohorts by analysing sequence discrepancy and the complexity index. In both the state-socialist and post-socialist contexts the most prevalent trajectory types were 'never partnered' and 'long-term partnerships', with only a small proportion of unstable partnership trajectories. Childless women experience more diverse and complex trajectories than childless men and their partnership trajectories vary more pronouncedly across educational groups than those of men. In contrast, cohort differences are more pronounced among childless men. We discuss the findings against the backdrop of the transition from a state-socialist to a post-socialist welfare state. The findings thus contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the social and historical embeddedness of pathways to childlessness and show how the links between gender, education, and family life-courses are context-specific.

Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility

In the United States, underachieving fertility desires is more common among women with higher levels of education and those who delay first marriage beyond their mid-20s. However, the relationship between these patterns, and particularly the degree to which marriage postponement explains lower fertility among the highly educated, is not well understood. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to analyze differences in parenthood and achieved parity for men and women, focusing on the role of marriage timing in achieving fertility goals over the life course. We expand on previous research by distinguishing between entry into parenthood and average parity among parents as pathways to underachieving, by considering variation in the impact of marriage timing by education and by stage of the life course, and by comparing results for men and women. We find that women with a bachelor's degree who desired three or more children are less likely to become mothers relative to women with the same desired family size who did not attend college. Conditional on becoming mothers, however, women with at least a bachelor's degree do not have lower completed family size. No comparable fatherhood difference by desired family size is present. Postponing marriage beyond age 30 is associated with lower proportions of parenthood but not with lower parity among parents. Age patterns are similar for women and men, pointing at social rather than biological factors driving the underachievement of fertility goals.

Latest-Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low-Fertility Countries

After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950-2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990-2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.

Pathways to Parenthood in Social and Family Context: Decade in Review, 2020

OBJECTIVE

This article reviews research from the past decade on patterns, trends, and differentials in the pathway to parenthood.

BACKGROUND

Whether, and under what circumstances, people become parents has implications for individual identity, family relationships, the well-being of adults and children, and population growth and age structure. Understanding the factors that influence pathways to parenthood is central to the study of families and can inform policies aimed at changing childbearing behaviors.

METHOD

This review summarizes recent trends in fertility as well as research on the predictors and correlates of childbearing, with a focus on the United States and on research most relevant to family scholars. We document fertility differentials and prevailing explanations for variation across sub-groups and discuss alternative pathways to parenthood, such as adoption. The article suggests avenues for future research, outlines emerging theoretical developments, and concludes with a discussion of fertility policy.

RESULTS

U.S. fertility has declined in recent years; whether fertility rates will increase is unclear. Elements of the broader social context such as the Great Recession and increasing economic inequality have impacted pathways to parenthood, and there is growing divergence in behaviors across social class. Scholars of childbearing have developed theories to better understand how childbearing is shaped by life course processes and social context.

CONCLUSION

Future research on the pathways to parenthood should continue to study group differentials, refine measurement and theories, and better integrate men and couples. Childbearing research is relevant for social policy, but ideological factors impact the application of research to policy.