Identifying peripheral arterial disease in the elderly patients using machine-learning algorithms

Interpretable machine learning models for detecting peripheral neuropathy and lower extremity arterial disease in diabetics: an analysis of critical shared and unique risk factors

BACKGROUND

Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) and lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD) are significant contributors to diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs), which severely affect patients' quality of life. This study aimed to develop machine learning (ML) predictive models for DPN and LEAD and to identify both shared and distinct risk factors.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 479 diabetic inpatients, of whom 215 were diagnosed with DPN and 69 with LEAD. Clinical data and laboratory results were collected for each patient. Feature selection was performed using three methods: mutual information (MI), random forest recursive feature elimination (RF-RFE), and the Boruta algorithm to identify the most important features. Predictive models were developed using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), with particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to optimize their hyperparameters. The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method was applied to determine the importance of risk factors in the top-performing models.

RESULTS

For diagnosing DPN, the XGBoost model was most effective, achieving a recall of 83.7%, specificity of 86.8%, accuracy of 85.4%, and an F1 score of 83.7%. On the other hand, the RF model excelled in diagnosing LEAD, with a recall of 85.7%, specificity of 92.9%, accuracy of 91.9%, and an F1 score of 82.8%. SHAP analysis revealed top five critical risk factors shared by DPN and LEAD, including increased urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), serum creatinine (Scr), older age, and carotid stenosis. Additionally, distinct risk factors were pinpointed: decreased serum albumin and lower lymphocyte count were linked to DPN, while elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and higher D-dimer levels were associated with LEAD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the effectiveness of ML models in predicting DPN and LEAD in diabetic patients and identified significant risk factors. Focusing on shared risk factors may greatly reduce the prevalence of both conditions, thereby mitigating the risk of developing DFUs.

Applications of SPECT and PET Imaging for the Physiological Evaluation of Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is classified as the narrowing or complete occlusion of the lower extremity arteries due to atherosclerosis. The risk of developing PAD increases with increased age and risk factors such as smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia. Current treatment for PAD involves lifestyle and symptom management, statin and antiplatelet therapy, and/or surgical interventions to improve quality of life with varying efficacy. PAD affects approximately 5 to 6 percent of the global population, with this global burden continuing to increase. Despite the increase in disease prevalence, no gold standard functional diagnostic tool has been established for enabling early detection of the disease, appropriate medical management, and prediction of adverse outcomes for PAD patients. The visualization and quantification of the physiological consequences of PAD are possible by way of nuclear imaging: specifically, via scintigraphy, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging. These non-invasive modalities, when combined with targeted radionuclides, possess utility for detecting functional perfusion deficits and provide unique insight into muscle tissue- and vascular-level characteristics of PAD patients. This review discusses the past, present, and emerging applications of hybrid nuclear imaging modalities in the evaluation and monitoring of patients with PAD.

Tailored risk assessment and forecasting in intermittent claudication

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend cardiovascular risk reduction and supervised exercise therapy as the first line of treatment in intermittent claudication, but implementation challenges and poor patient compliance lead to significant variation in management and therefore outcomes. The development of a precise risk stratification tool is proposed through a machine-learning algorithm that aims to provide personalized outcome predictions for different management strategies.

METHODS

Feature selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. The model was developed using a bootstrapped sample based on patients with intermittent claudication from a vascular centre to predict chronic limb-threatening ischaemia, two or more revascularization procedures, major adverse cardiovascular events, and major adverse limb events. Algorithm performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration curves were generated to assess the consistency between predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis was employed to evaluate the clinical utility. Validation was performed using a similar dataset.

RESULTS

The bootstrapped sample of 10 000 patients was based on 255 patients. The model was validated using a similar sample of 254 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for risk of progression to chronic limb-threatening ischaemia at 2 years (0.892), risk of progression to chronic limb-threatening ischaemia at 5 years (0.866), likelihood of major adverse cardiovascular events within 5 years (0.836), likelihood of major adverse limb events within 5 years (0.891), and likelihood of two or more revascularization procedures within 5 years (0.896) demonstrated excellent discrimination. Calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between predicted and actual outcomes and decision curve analysis confirmed clinical utility. Logistic regression yielded slightly lower area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for these outcomes compared with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (0.728, 0.717, 0.746, 0.756, and 0.733 respectively). External calibration curve and decision curve analysis confirmed the reliability and clinical utility of the model, surpassing traditional logistic regression.

CONCLUSION

The machine-learning algorithm successfully predicts outcomes for patients with intermittent claudication across various initial treatment strategies, offering potential for improved risk stratification and patient outcomes.

Physician- and Patient-Elicited Barriers and Facilitators to Implementation of a Machine Learning-Based Screening Tool for Peripheral Arterial Disease: Preimplementation Study With Physician and Patient Stakeholders

BACKGROUND

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is underdiagnosed, partially due to a high prevalence of atypical symptoms and a lack of physician and patient awareness. Implementing clinical decision support tools powered by machine learning algorithms may help physicians identify high-risk patients for diagnostic workup.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate barriers and facilitators to the implementation of a novel machine learning-based screening tool for PAD among physician and patient stakeholders using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR).

METHODS

We performed semistructured interviews with physicians and patients from the Stanford University Department of Primary Care and Population Health, Division of Cardiology, and Division of Vascular Medicine. Participants answered questions regarding their perceptions toward machine learning and clinical decision support for PAD detection. Rapid thematic analysis was performed using templates incorporating codes from CFIR constructs.

RESULTS

A total of 12 physicians (6 primary care physicians and 6 cardiovascular specialists) and 14 patients were interviewed. Barriers to implementation arose from 6 CFIR constructs: complexity, evidence strength and quality, relative priority, external policies and incentives, knowledge and beliefs about intervention, and individual identification with the organization. Facilitators arose from 5 CFIR constructs: intervention source, relative advantage, learning climate, patient needs and resources, and knowledge and beliefs about intervention. Physicians felt that a machine learning-powered diagnostic tool for PAD would improve patient care but cited limited time and authority in asking patients to undergo additional screening procedures. Patients were interested in having their physicians use this tool but raised concerns about such technologies replacing human decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient- and physician-reported barriers toward the implementation of a machine learning-powered PAD diagnostic tool followed four interdependent themes: (1) low familiarity or urgency in detecting PAD; (2) concerns regarding the reliability of machine learning; (3) differential perceptions of responsibility for PAD care among primary care versus specialty physicians; and (4) patient preference for physicians to remain primary interpreters of health care data. Facilitators followed two interdependent themes: (1) enthusiasm for clinical use of the predictive model and (2) willingness to incorporate machine learning into clinical care. Implementation of machine learning-powered diagnostic tools for PAD should leverage provider support while simultaneously educating stakeholders on the importance of early PAD diagnosis. High predictive validity is necessary for machine learning models but not sufficient for implementation.

Assessment of Renal Fibrosis in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Using Shear Wave Elastography and Clinical Features: A Random Forest Approach

OBJECTIVE

Renal fibrosis is the common pathological hallmark of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. In this study, a random forest (RF) classifier based on 2-D shear wave elastography (SWE) and clinical features for the differential severity of renal fibrosis in patients with CKD is proposed.

METHODS

A total of 162 patients diagnosed with CKD who underwent 2-D SWE and renal biopsy were prospectively enrolled from April 2019 to December 2021 and then randomized into training (n = 114) and validation (n = 48) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and recursive feature elimination for support vector machines (SVM-RFE) algorithm were employed to select renal fibrosis-related features from clinical information and elastosonographic findings. An RF model was subsequently constructed using the aforementioned informative parameters in the training cohort and evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both cohorts.

RESULTS

The LASSO and SVM-RFE analyses revealed that age, sex, blood urea nitrogen, renal resistive index, hypertension and the 2D-SWE value were independent risk variables associated with renal fibrosis severity. The established RF model incorporating these six variables exhibited fine discrimination in both the derivation (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-0.91) and validation (AUC: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.77-0.98) cohorts. Moreover, the calibration curve revealed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the decision curve analysis revealed a significant clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSION

The developed RF model, via a combination of the 2-D SWE value and clinical information, indicated satisfactory diagnostic performance and clinical practicality toward differentiating moderate-severe from mild renal fibrosis, which may provide critical insight into risk stratification for patients with CKD.

Artificial intelligence in atherosclerotic disease: Applications and trends

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the most common cause of death globally. Increasing amounts of highly diverse ASCVD data are becoming available and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques now bear the promise of utilizing them to improve diagnosis, advance understanding of disease pathogenesis, enable outcome prediction, assist with clinical decision making and promote precision medicine approaches. Machine learning (ML) algorithms in particular, are already employed in cardiovascular imaging applications to facilitate automated disease detection and experts believe that ML will transform the field in the coming years. Current review first describes the key concepts of AI applications from a clinical standpoint. We then provide a focused overview of current AI applications in four main ASCVD domains: coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), and carotid artery disease. For each domain, applications are presented with refer to the primary imaging modality used [e.g., computed tomography (CT) or invasive angiography] and the key aim of the applied AI approaches, which include disease detection, phenotyping, outcome prediction, and assistance with clinical decision making. We conclude with the strengths and limitations of AI applications and provide future perspectives.

Vascular Implications of COVID-19: Role of Radiological Imaging, Artificial Intelligence, and Tissue Characterization: A Special Report

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has caused a pandemic, infecting nearly 80 million people worldwide, with mortality exceeding six million. The average survival span is just 14 days from the time the symptoms become aggressive. The present study delineates the deep-driven vascular damage in the pulmonary, renal, coronary, and carotid vessels due to SARS-CoV-2. This special report addresses an important gap in the literature in understanding (i) the pathophysiology of vascular damage and the role of medical imaging in the visualization of the damage caused by SARS-CoV-2, and (ii) further understanding the severity of COVID-19 using artificial intelligence (AI)-based tissue characterization (TC). PRISMA was used to select 296 studies for AI-based TC. Radiological imaging techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), and ultrasound were selected for imaging of the vasculature infected by COVID-19. Four kinds of hypotheses are presented for showing the vascular damage in radiological images due to COVID-19. Three kinds of AI models, namely, machine learning, deep learning, and transfer learning, are used for TC. Further, the study presents recommendations for improving AI-based architectures for vascular studies. We conclude that the process of vascular damage due to COVID-19 has similarities across vessel types, even though it results in multi-organ dysfunction. Although the mortality rate is ~2% of those infected, the long-term effect of COVID-19 needs monitoring to avoid deaths. AI seems to be penetrating the health care industry at warp speed, and we expect to see an emerging role in patient care, reduce the mortality and morbidity rate.

Effect of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation on delayed neurocognitive recovery in elderly patients

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate whether transauricular vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) could decrease the incidence of delayed neurocognitive recovery (dNCR) in elderly adults after total joint arthroplasty (TJA).

METHODS

A prospective, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled trial was designed. In total, 124 elderly patients undergoing TJA were enrolled and randomly assigned to taVNS group (n = 62), who received taVNS at 1 h before anesthetic induction until the end of surgery, or sham stimulation (SS) group (n = 62), who received SS in the same manner. Neuropsychological batteries were performed before and at 1 week after surgery to assess the incidence of dNCR. Blood samples were collected before surgery and at 1 day after surgery to detect the activity of cholinesterase (AChE and BChE), as well as the levels of inflammatory factors (TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, and HMGB1) and brain damage factor S100β.

RESULTS

Of 124 patients, 119 completed 1 week neuropsychological tests. The incidence of dNCR was significantly decreased in taVNS group [10% (6/60)] compared with the SS group [27.1% (16/59)] (P < 0.05). Patients who received taVNS had lower blood levels of AChE, BChE, IL-6, HMGB1, and S100β after surgery (P < 0.05), as compared with those in the SS group. There was no difference in TNF-α between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

The taVNS can decrease the incidence of dNCR after TJA in elderly patients, which may be related to the inhibition of inflammatory cytokine production and the reduction of cholinesterase activity.

Prediction of 2-Year Major Adverse Limb Event-Free Survival After Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty and Stenting for Lower Limb Atherosclerosis Obliterans: A Machine Learning-Based Study

Background

The current scoring systems could not predict prognosis after endovascular therapy for peripheral artery disease. Machine learning could make predictions for future events by learning a specific pattern from existing data. This study aimed to demonstrate machine learning could make an accurate prediction for 2-year major adverse limb event-free survival (MFS) after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) and stenting for lower limb atherosclerosis obliterans (ASO).

Methods

A lower limb ASO cohort of 392 patients who received PTA and stenting was split to the training set and test set by 4:1 in chronological order. Demographic, medical, and imaging data were used to build machine learning models to predict 2-year MFS. The discrimination and calibration of artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest models were compared with the logistic regression model, using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROCAUC) with DeLong test, and the calibration curve with Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively.

Results

The ANN model (ROCAUC = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.68–0.89) but not the random forest model (ROCAUC = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.66–0.87) significantly outperformed the logistic regression model (ROCAUC = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.60–0.83, P = 0.01 and P = 0.24). The ANN model the logistic regression model demonstrated good calibration performance (P = 0.73 and P = 0.28), while the random forest model showed poor calibration (P < 0.01). The calibration curve of the ANN model was visually the closest to the perfectly calibrated line.

Conclusion

Machine learning models could accurately predict 2-year MFS after PTA and stenting for lower limb ASO, in which the ANN model had better discrimination and calibration. Machine learning-derived prediction tools might be clinically useful to automatically identify candidates for PTA and stenting.