An AHP-based regional COVID-19 vulnerability model and its application in China

An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)

BACKGROUND

Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention.

METHODS

We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

RESULTS

The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic.

Uncovering COVID-19 infection determinants in Portugal: towards an evidence-based spatial susceptibility index to support epidemiological containment policies

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 caused the largest pandemic of the twenty-first century forcing the adoption of containment policies all over the world. Many studies on COVID-19 health determinants have been conducted, mainly using multivariate methods and geographic information systems (GIS), but few attempted to demonstrate how knowing social, economic, mobility, behavioural, and other spatial determinants and their effects can help to contain the disease. For example, in mainland Portugal, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) were primarily dependent on epidemiological indicators and ignored the spatial variation of susceptibility to infection.

METHODS

We present a data-driven GIS-multicriteria analysis to derive a spatial-based susceptibility index to COVID-19 infection in Portugal. The cumulative incidence over 14 days was used in a stepwise multiple linear regression as the target variable along potential determinants at the municipal scale. To infer the existence of thresholds in the relationships between determinants and incidence the most relevant factors were examined using a bivariate Bayesian change point analysis. The susceptibility index was mapped based on these thresholds using a weighted linear combination.

RESULTS

Regression results support that COVID-19 spread in mainland Portugal had strong associations with factors related to socio-territorial specificities, namely sociodemographic, economic and mobility. Change point analysis revealed evidence of nonlinearity, and the susceptibility classes reflect spatial dependency. The spatial index of susceptibility to infection explains with accuracy previous and posterior infections. Assessing the NPI levels in relation to the susceptibility map points towards a disagreement between the severity of restrictions and the actual propensity for transmission, highlighting the need for more tailored interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This article argues that NPI to contain COVID-19 spread should consider the spatial variation of the susceptibility to infection. The findings highlight the importance of customising interventions to specific geographical contexts due to the uneven distribution of COVID-19 infection determinants. The methodology has the potential for replication at other geographical scales and regions to better understand the role of health determinants in explaining spatiotemporal patterns of diseases and promoting evidence-based public health policies.

How to establishing an indicators framework for evaluating the performances in primary TB control institutions under the new TB control model? Based on a Delphi study conducted in Guangxi, China

BACKGROUND

In China, the new TB control model of trinity form had been implemented in all parts, and the comprehensively evaluation to the performances in primary TB control institutions were closely related to the working capacity and quality of TB service, but there was still no an unified evaluation indicators framework in practice and few relevant studies. The purpose of this study was to establish an indicators framework for comprehensively evaluating the performances in primary TB control institutions under the new TB control model of trinity form in Guangxi, China.

METHODS

The Delphi method was used to establish an indicators framework for comprehensively evaluating the performances in primary TB control institutions under the new TB control model of trinity form, and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was used to determine the weights of all levels of indicators, from September 2021 to December 2021 in Guangxi, China.

RESULTS

A total of 14 experts who had at least 10 years working experience and engaged in TB prevention and control and public health management from health committee, CDC, TB designated hospitals and university of Guangxi were consulted in two rounds. The average age of the experts were (43.3 ± 7.549) years old, and the effective recovery rate of the questionnaire was 100.0%. The average value of authority coefficient of experts (Cr) in the two rounds of consultation was above 0.800. The Kendall's harmony coefficient (W) of experts' opinions on the first-level indicators, the second-level indicators and the third-level indicators were 0.786, 0.201 and 0.169, respectively, which were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Finally, an indicators framework was established, which included 2 first-level indicators, 10 second-level indicators and 37 third-level indicators. The results of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) showed that the consistency test of all levels of indicators were CI < 0.10, which indicating that the weight of each indicator was acceptable.

CONCLUSION

The indicators framework established in this study was in line with the reality, had reasonable weights, and could provide a scientific evaluation tool for comprehensively evaluating the performances in primary TB control institutions under the new TB control model of trinity form in Guangxi, China.

An evaluation index system for regional mobile SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleic acid testing capacity in China: a modified Delphi consensus study

Background

Large-scale detection has great potential to bring benefits for containing the COVID-19 epidemic and supporting the government in reopening economic activities. Evaluating the true regional mobile severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus nucleic acid testing capacity is essential to improve the overall fighting performance against this epidemic and maintain economic development. However, such a tool is not available in this issue. We aimed to establish an evaluation index system for assessing the regional mobile SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleic acid testing capacity and provide suggestions for improving the capacity level.

Methods

The initial version of the evaluation index system was identified based on massive literature and expert interviews. The Delphi method questionnaire was designed and 30 experts were consulted in two rounds of questionnaire to select and revise indexes at all three levels. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method was used to calculate the weight of indexes at all three levels.

Results

The evaluation index system for assessing the regional mobile SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleic acid testing capacity, including 5 first-level indexes, 17 second-level indexes, and 90 third-level indexes. The response rates of questionnaires delivered in the two rounds of consultation were 100 and 96.7%. Furthermore, the authority coefficient of 30 experts was 0.71. Kendall’s coordination coefficient differences were statistically significant (P < 0.001). The weighted values of capacity indexes were established at all levels according to the consistency test, demonstrating that ‘Personnel team construction’ (0.2046) came first amongst the five first-level indexes, followed by ‘Laboratory performance building and maintenance’ (0.2023), ‘Emergency response guarantee’ (0.1989), ‘Information management system for nucleic acid testing resources’ (0.1982) and ‘Regional mobile nucleic acid testing emergency response system construction’ (0.1959).

Conclusion

The evaluation system for assessing the regional mobile SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleic acid testing capacity puts forward a specific, objective, and quantifiable evaluation criterion. The evaluation system can act as a tool for diversified subjects to find the weak links and loopholes. It also provides a measurable basis for authorities to improve nucleic acid testing capabilities.

Ten GIS-Based Solutions for Managing and Controlling COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused disastrous results in most countries of the world. It has rapidly spread across the globe with over 156 million cumulative confirmed cases and 3.264 million deaths to date, according to World Health Organization (WHO) Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. With these huge amounts of causalities in the world, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a computer-based analyzer could help governments, experts, medical staff, and citizens to prevent and respond to the incidence. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic involves many unknown parameters where most of them have a spatial dimension. Thus, spatial analysis and GIS could provide appropriate decision-making tools, predictive models, statistical methods, and new technologies for COVID-19 outbreak control, also help the people for avoiding direct contact and preserving social distance. This article aims to review the most promising categories of GIS-based solutions in this domain. We divided the solutions into ten classes including spatio-temporal analysis, SDSS approaches, geo-business, context-aware recommendation systems, participatory GIS and volunteered geographic information (VGI), internet of things (IoT), location-based service (LBS), web mapping, satellite imagery-based analysis, and waste management. The main contribution of this paper is proposing different geospatial guidelines that could provide reliable and useful protocols for COVID-19 outbreak control to minimize causalities, restrict incidence, establish effective urban communication, provide new approaches for business in lockdown situations, telehealth treatment, patient monitoring, adaptive decision making, and visualize trend analysis.

Geospatial modelling of COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy MCDM approach: a case study of West Bengal, India

COVID-19 is a worldwide transmitted pandemic that has brought a threatening challenge to Indian society and the economy. The disease has become a public health disaster, which has no effective medication. However, proper management and planning, which includes understanding the transmitting pattern, number of containment zones, vulnerable factors, and level of risk, may break the chain of transmission and reduce the number of cases. Hence, this study has attempted to model the COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, namely fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for West Bengal, India, through geographic information system (GIS). A total of 15 parameters were utilised to model the COVID-19 vulnerability, which was further categorised into three criteria: social vulnerability, epidemiological vulnerability, and physical vulnerability. The final vulnerability mapping has been done using these three criteria through the GIS platform. This study reveals that COVID-19 infection highly threatens about 20% of the total area of West Bengal, 23.42% moderately vulnerable, and 57.03% of the area comes under low vulnerability. The highly vulnerable region includes the Kolkata, South 24 Paraganas, and North 24 Paraganas, which are considered highly populated districts of West Bengal. Therefore government agencies should be more focused and plan accordingly to safeguard the community, especially the region with very high COVID-19 vulnerability, from further spreading the infection.