Source-Sink Dynamics: a Neglected Problem for Landscape-Scale Biodiversity Conservation in the Tropics

Effects of agriculture and nature reserves on avian behavior in northwestern Costa Rica

Behavioral changes are often animals' first responses to environmental change and may act as a bellwether for population viability. Nonetheless, most studies of habitat conversion focus on changes in species occurrences or abundances. We analyzed >14,000 behavioral observations across 55 bird species in communities in northwestern Costa Rica to determine how land use affects reproductive, foraging, and other passive kinds of behaviors not associated with either foraging or reproduction. Specifically, we quantified differences in behaviors between farms, privately owned forests, and protected areas and implemented a novel modeling framework to account for variation in detection among behaviors. This framework entailed estimating abundances of birds performing different behaviors while allowing detection probabilities of individuals to vary by behavior. Birds were 1.2 times more likely to exhibit reproductive behaviors in forest than in agriculture and 1.5 times more likely to exhibit reproductive behaviors in protected areas than in private forests. Species were not always most abundant in the habitats where they were most likely to exhibit foraging or reproductive behaviors. Finally, species of higher conservation concern were less abundant in agriculture than in forest. Together, our results highlight the importance of behavioral analyses for elucidating the conservation value of different land uses.

Dispersal-diversity feedbacks and their consequences for macroecological patterns

Dispersal is a key process in ecology and evolution. While the effects of dispersal on diversity are broadly acknowledged, our understanding of the influence of diversity on dispersal remains limited. This arises from the dynamic, context-dependent, nonlinear and ubiquitous nature of dispersal. Diversity outcomes, such as competition, mutualism, parasitism and trophic interactions can feed back on dispersal, thereby influencing biodiversity patterns at several spatio-temporal scales. Here, we shed light on the dispersal-diversity causal links by discussing how dispersal-diversity ecological and evolutionary feedbacks can impact macroecological patterns. We highlight the importance of dispersal-diversity feedbacks for advancing our understanding of macro-eco-evolutionary patterns and their challenges, such as establishing a unified framework for dispersal terminology and methodologies across various disciplines and scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

A new threshold selection method for species distribution models with presence-only data: Extracting the mutation point of the P/E curve by threshold regression

Selecting thresholds to convert continuous predictions of species distribution models proves critical for many real-world applications and model assessments. Prevalent threshold selection methods for presence-only data require unproven pseudo-absence data or subjective researchers' decisions. This study proposes a new method, Boyce-Threshold Quantile Regression (BTQR), to determine thresholds objectively without pseudo-absence data. We summarize that the mutation point is a typical shape feature of the predicted-to-expected (P/E) curve after reviewing relevant articles. Analysis based on source-sink theory suggests that this mutation point may represent a transition in habitat types and serve as an appropriate threshold. Threshold regression is introduced to accurately locate the mutation point. To validate the effectiveness of BTQR, we used four virtual species of varying prevalence and a real species with reliable distribution data. Six different species distribution models were employed to generate continuous suitability predictions. BTQR and nine other traditional methods transformed these continuous outputs into binary results. Comparative experiments show that BTQR has advantages in terms of accuracy, applicability, and consistency over the existing methods.

Estimating blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) connectivity and settlement capacity in mid-latitude fjord regions

The mussel industry faces challenges such as low and inconsistent levels of larvae settlement and poor-quality spat, leading to variable production. However, mussel farming remains a vital sustainable and environmentally responsible method for producing protein, fostering ecological responsibility in the aquaculture sector. We investigate the population connectivity and larval dispersion of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) in Scottish waters, as a case study, using a multidisciplinary approach that combined genetic data and particle modelling. This research allows us to develop a thorough understanding of blue mussel population dynamics in mid-latitude fjord regions, to infer gene-flow patterns, and to estimate population divergence. Our findings reveal a primary south-to-north particle transport direction and the presence of five genetic clusters. We discover a significant and continuous genetic material exchange among populations within the study area, with our biophysical model's outcomes aligning with our genetic observations. Additionally, our model reveals a robust connection between the southwest coast and the rest of the west coast. This study will guide the preservation of mussel farming regions, ensuring sustainable populations that contribute to marine ecosystem health and resilience.

Maximum temperatures determine the habitat affiliations of North American mammals

Addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires identifying the winners and losers of global change. Species are often categorized based on how they respond to habitat loss; for example, species restricted to natural environments, those that most often occur in anthropogenic habitats, and generalists that do well in both. However, species might switch habitat affiliations across time and space: an organism may venture into human-modified areas in benign regions but retreat into thermally buffered forested habitats in areas with high temperatures. Here, we apply community occupancy models to a large-scale camera trapping dataset with 29 mammal species distributed over 2,485 sites across the continental United States, to ask three questions. First, are species' responses to forest and anthropogenic habitats consistent across continental scales? Second, do macroclimatic conditions explain spatial variation in species responses to land use? Third, can species traits elucidate which taxa are most likely to show climate-dependent habitat associations? We found that all species exhibited significant spatial variation in how they respond to land-use, tending to avoid anthropogenic areas and increasingly use forests in hotter regions. In the hottest regions, species occupancy was 50% higher in forested compared to open habitats, whereas in the coldest regions, the trend reversed. Larger species with larger ranges, herbivores, and primary predators were more likely to change their habitat affiliations than top predators, which consistently affiliated with high forest cover. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions influence species' space-use and that maintaining forest cover can help protect mammals from warming climates.

Broad-scale analysis of fish community data suggests critical need to support regional connectivity of coral reefs

Connectivity is vital for the biodiversity and functioning of marine ecosystems. It is known to be important for coral reefs, but the scales at which connectivity effects matter-and, correspondingly, the scales at which management responses are needed-are poorly understood in marine systems. We used 23 years of fish monitoring data collected from ~50 different coral reefs by the Australian Institute of Marine Science, together with a range of geographic data layers (including the Allen Coral Atlas) and additional network analysis, to explore the balance of local and regional influence on fish communities. Variance partitioning indicated that 42% of the variance in fish community composition could be explained by regional effects or their interaction with coarse-grained local influences (habitat). The variance explained by regional influences was divided evenly between measures that capture location on environmental gradients (e.g., proximity to coastal shelf, latitude) and cross-scale centrality measures of reef location within a broader reef network. A total of 11% of variance could be directly or indirectly attributed to management. Our results provide clear evidence that management and restoration of reefs across the globe must consider both local and regional influences on reef-associated organisms and highlight the potential benefits of improving connectivity in human-dominated coastal seascapes.

Edge effects and vertical stratification of aerial insectivorous bats across the interface of primary-secondary Amazonian rainforest

Edge effects, abiotic and biotic changes associated with habitat boundaries, are key drivers of community change in fragmented landscapes. Their influence is heavily modulated by matrix composition. With over half of the world’s tropical forests predicted to become forest edge by the end of the century, it is paramount that conservationists gain a better understanding of how tropical biota is impacted by edge gradients. Bats comprise a large fraction of tropical mammalian fauna and are demonstrably sensitive to habitat modification. Yet, knowledge about how bat assemblages are affected by edge effects remains scarce. Capitalizing on a whole-ecosystem manipulation in the Central Amazon, the aims of this study were to i) assess the consequences of edge effects for twelve aerial insectivorous bat species across the interface of primary and secondary forest, and ii) investigate if the activity levels of these species differed between the understory and canopy and if they were modulated by distance from the edge. Acoustic surveys were conducted along four 2-km transects, each traversing equal parts of primary and ca. 30-year-old secondary forest. Five models were used to assess the changes in the relative activity of forest specialists (three species), flexible forest foragers (three species), and edge foragers (six species). Modelling results revealed limited evidence of edge effects, except for forest specialists in the understory. No significant differences in activity were found between the secondary or primary forest but almost all species exhibited pronounced vertical stratification. Previously defined bat guilds appear to hold here as our study highlights that forest bats are more edge-sensitive than edge foraging bats. The absence of pronounced edge effects and the comparable activity levels between primary and old secondary forests indicates that old secondary forest can help ameliorate the consequences of fragmentation on tropical aerial insectivorous bats.

A hierarchical N-mixture model to estimate behavioral variation and a case study of Neotropical birds

Understanding how and why animals use the environments where they occur is both foundational to behavioral ecology and essential to identify critical habitats for species conservation. However, some behaviors are more difficult to observe than others, which can bias analyses of raw observational data. To our knowledge, no method currently exists to model how animals use different environments while accounting for imperfect behavior-specific detection probability. We developed an extension of a binomial N-mixture model (hereafter the behavior N-mixture model) to estimate the probability of a given behavior occurring in a particular environment while accounting for imperfect detection. We then conducted a simulation to validate the model's ability to estimate the effects of environmental covariates on the probabilities of individuals performing different behaviors. We compared our model to a naïve model that does not account for imperfect detection, as well as a traditional N-mixture model. Finally, we applied the model to a bird observation data set in northwest Costa Rica to quantify how three species behave in forests and farms. Simulations and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the behavior N-mixture model produced unbiased estimates of behaviors and their relationships with predictor variables (e.g., forest cover, habitat type). Importantly, the behavior N-mixture model accurately characterized uncertainty, unlike the naïve model, which often suggested erroneous effects of covariates on behaviors. When applied to field data, the behavior N-mixture model suggested that Hoffmann's woodpecker (Melanerpes hoffmanii) and Inca dove (Columbina inca) behaved differently in forested versus agricultural habitats, while turquoise-browed motmot (Eumomota superciliosa) did not. Thus, the behavior N-mixture model can help identify habitats that are essential to a species' life cycle (e.g., where individuals nest, forage) that nonbehavioral models would miss. Our model can greatly improve the appropriate use of behavioral survey data and conclusions drawn from them. In doing so, it provides a valuable path forward for assessing the conservation value of alternative habitat types.

Interactive effects of multiscale diversification practices on farmland bird stress

Farmland diversification practices (i.e., methods used to produce food sustainably by enhancing biodiversity in cropping systems) are sometimes considered beneficial to both agriculture and biodiversity, but most studies of these practices rely on species richness, diversity, or abundance as a proxy for habitat quality. Biodiversity assessments may miss early clues that populations are imperiled when species presence does not imply persistence. Physiological stress indicators may help identify low-quality habitats before population declines occur. We explored how avian stress indicators respond to on-farm management practices and surrounding seminatural area (1-km radius) across 21 California strawberry farms. We examined whether commonly used biodiversity metrics correlate with stress responses in wild birds. We used ∼1000 blood and feather samples and body mass and wing chord measurements, mostly from passerines, to test the effects of diversification practices on four physiological stress indicators: heterophil to lymphocyte ratios (H:L), body condition, hematocrit values, and feather growth rates of individual birds. We then tested the relationship between physiological stress indicators and species richness, abundance, occurrence, and diversity derived from 285 bird point count surveys. After accounting for other biological drivers, landscape context mediated the effect of local farm management on H:L and body condition. Local diversification practices were associated with reduced individual stress in intensive agricultural landscapes but increased it in landscapes surrounded by relatively more seminatural area. Feathers grew more slowly in landscapes dominated by strawberry production, suggesting that nutritional condition was lower here than in landscapes with more crop types and seminatural areas. We found scant evidence that species richness, abundance, occurrence, or diversity metrics were correlated with the individual's physiological stress, suggesting that reliance on these metrics may obscure the impacts of management on species persistence. Our findings underscore the importance of considering landscape context when designing local management strategies to promote wildlife conservation.

Seasonal distribution of fish larvae in mangrove-seagrass seascapes of Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Fish larvae supply in nearshore vegetated habitats, such as seagrass meadows and mangroves, contributes significantly to sustainable fish stocks. Yet, little information is available on distribution patterns of fish larvae in mangrove and seagrass habitats of the western Indian Ocean. The present study investigated the abundance, diversity and assemblage composition of fish larvae in mangrove creeks, inshore seagrass meadows (located adjacent to mangroves) and nearshore seagrass meadows (located in-between mangroves and coral reefs) in two coastal seascapes of Zanzibar (Tanzania) across seasons for 1 year. The highest mean abundances of fish larvae were recorded in mangrove creeks, while nearshore- and inshore seagrass meadows showed similar mean abundance levels. Generally, fish larvae representing 42 families were identified, with the fourteen most abundant families comprising 83% of all specimens. Fish larvae communities were dominated by specimens of the postflexion growth stage in all habitats, except in mangrove creeks in one of the two seascapes (i.e. Chwaka Bay) from April through June when abundances of the preflexion and very small-sized individuals were exceptionally high. Slightly higher fish larvae abundances were observed in mangroves during the southeast monsoon compared to the northeast monsoon, and there were also differences across months within monsoon periods for all three habitats studied. Assemblage composition of larvae did, however, not vary significantly in time or space. Our findings suggest that mangroves and seagrass meadows are highly linked shallow-water habitats with high retention of fish larvae contributing to similarity in assemblage compositions across shallow coastal seascapes. Conservation and management efforts should prioritize connected shallow-water seascapes for protection of fish larvae and to uphold sustainable coastal fisheries.

Impacts of wildlife trade on terrestrial biodiversity

The wildlife trade is worth billions of dollars annually and affects most major taxonomic groups. Despite this, a global understanding of the trade's impacts on species populations is lacking. We performed a quantitative meta-analysis of the wildlife trade that synthesized 506 species-level effect sizes from 31 studies, estimating trade-driven declines in mammals (452 effect sizes), birds (36) and reptiles (18). Overall, species declined in abundance by 62% (95% confidence interval (CI), 20 to 82%) where trade occurs. Reductions involving national or international trade were greatest, driving declines of 76% (95% CI, 36 to 91%) and 66% (95% CI, 12 to 87%), respectively. The impacts of trade were pervasive, requiring over 102 hours of travel time from settlements for trade to have no mean effect. Current protective measures fail species, with significant declines even where the harvesting for trade occurs in protected areas. Population declines tracked species threat status, indicating heightened extirpation and extinction risk in traded species. Critically, for such a severe global threat to wildlife, our analysis unearthed a limited number of studies using treatment versus control comparisons, and no studies on amphibians, invertebrates, cacti or orchids. Improved management, tackling both unsustainable demand and trade reporting, must be a conservation priority to prevent rampant trade-induced declines.

Sparing land for secondary forest regeneration protects more tropical biodiversity than land sharing in cattle farming landscapes

Effectively managing farming to meet food demand is vital for the future of biodiversity.^1,2 Increasing yields on existing farmland can allow the abandonment (sparing) of low-yielding areas that subsequently recover as secondary forest.^2-5 A key question is whether such "secondary sparing" conserves biodiversity more effectively than retaining wildlife-friendly habitat within farmland ("land sharing"). Focusing on the Colombian Choco-Andes, a global hotspot of threatened biodiversity,⁶ and on cattle farming, we examined the outcomes of secondary sparing and land sharing via simulated scenarios that maintained constant landscape-wide production and equal within-pasture yield: (1) for species and functional diversity of dung beetles and birds; (2) for avian phylogenetic diversity; and (3) across different stages of secondary forest regeneration, relative to spared primary forests. Sparing older secondary forests (15-30 years recovery) promotes substantial species, functional, and phylogenetic (birds only) diversity benefits for birds and dung beetles compared to land sharing. Species of conservation concern had higher occupancy estimates under land-sparing compared to land-sharing scenarios. Spared secondary forests accumulated equivalent diversity to primary forests for dung beetles within 15 years and within 15-30 years for birds, highlighting the need for longer term protection to maximize the biodiversity gains of secondary sparing. Promoting the recovery and protection of large expanses of secondary forests under the land-sparing model provides a critical mechanism for protecting tropical biodiversity, with important implications for concurrently assisting in the delivery of global targets to restore 350 million hectares of forested landscapes.^7,8.

The impact of secondary forest regeneration on ground-dwelling ant communities in the Tropical Andes

Natural regeneration of abandoned farmland provides an important opportunity to contribute to global reforestation targets, including the Bonn Challenge. Of particular importance are the montane tropics, where a long history of farming, frequently on marginal soils, has rendered many ecosystems highly degraded and hotspots of extinction risk. Ants play crucial roles in ecosystem functioning, and a key question is how time since abandonment and elevation (and inherent temperature gradients therein) affect patterns of ant recovery within secondary forest systems. Focusing on the Colombian Andes across a 1300 m altitudinal gradient and secondary forest (2-30 years) recovering on abandoned cattle pastures, we find that over time ant community composition and species richness recovered towards that of primary forest. However, these relationships are strongly dependent on elevation with the more open and warmer pasturelands supporting more ants than either primary or secondary forest at a particular elevation. The loss of species richness and change in species composition with elevation is less severe in pasture than forests, suggesting that conditions within pasture and its remaining scattered trees, hedgerows and forest fragments, are more favourable for some species, which are likely in or near thermal debt. Promoting and protecting natural regenerating forests over the long term in the montane tropics will likely offer significant potential for returning ant communities towards primary forest levels.

Land-sparing agriculture sustains higher levels of avian functional diversity than land sharing

The ecological impacts of meeting rising demands for food production can potentially be mitigated by two competing land-use strategies: off-setting natural habitats through intensification of existing farmland (land sparing), or elevating biodiversity within the agricultural matrix via the integration of "wildlife-friendly" habitat features (land sharing). However, a key unanswered question is whether sparing or sharing farming would best conserve functional diversity, which can promote ecosystem stability and resilience to future land-use change. Focusing on bird communities in tropical cloud forests of the Colombian Andes, we test the performance of each strategy in conserving functional diversity. We show that multiple components of avian functional diversity in farmland are positively related to the proximity and extent of natural forest. Using landscape and community simulations, we also show that land-sparing agriculture conserves greater functional diversity and predicts higher abundance of species supplying key ecological functions than land sharing, with sharing becoming progressively inferior with increasing isolation from remnant forest. These results suggest low-intensity agriculture is likely to conserve little functional diversity unless large blocks of adjacent natural habitat are protected, consistent with land sparing. To ensure the retention of functionally diverse ecosystems, we urgently need to implement mechanisms for increasing farmland productivity whilst protecting spared land.

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.

A multispecies test of source-sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source-sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site- or habitat-specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source-sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high-output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source-sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data-rich source-sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short-term regional persistence. Because source-sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.

Land-use strategies to balance livestock production, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage in Yucatán, Mexico

Balancing the production of food, particularly meat, with preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services is a major societal challenge. Research into the contrasting strategies of land sparing and land sharing has suggested that land sparing-combining high-yield agriculture with the protection or restoration of natural habitats on nonfarmed land-will have lower environmental impacts than other strategies. Ecosystems with long histories of habitat disturbance, however, could be resilient to low-yield agriculture and thus fare better under land sharing. Using a wider suite of species (birds, dung beetles and trees) and a wider range of livestock-production systems than previous studies, we investigated the probable impacts of different land-use strategies on biodiversity and aboveground carbon stocks in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico-a region with a long history of habitat disturbance. By modelling the production of multiple products from interdependent land uses, we found that land sparing would allow larger estimated populations of most species and larger carbon stocks to persist than would land sharing or any intermediate strategy. This result held across all agricultural production targets despite the history of disturbance and despite species richness in low- and medium-yielding agriculture being not much lower than that in natural habitats. This highlights the importance, in evaluating the biodiversity impacts of land use, of measuring population densities of individual species, rather than simple species richness. The benefits of land sparing for both biodiversity and carbon storage suggest that safeguarding natural habitats for biodiversity protection and carbon storage alongside promoting areas of high-yield cattle production would be desirable. However, delivering such landscapes will probably require the explicit linkage of livestock yield increases with habitat protection or restoration, as well as a deeper understanding of the long-term sustainability of yields, and research into how other societal outcomes vary across land-use strategies.